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The domestic phenol market continued to decline in April

lubon — Wed, 06 May 2026 00:24:43 +0000

In April 2026, the domestic phenol market continued to decline, with the overall market briefly rising and then rapidly falling, and the price center continuously shifting downwards. The supply-demand contradiction and external factors dominated the downward trend in this round.
In April, the overall price of phenol showed a slight increase followed by a continuous bottoming out process. At the beginning of the month, it was supported by the geopolitical event of Saudi Arabia’s attack and the peak season of “Golden Three Silver Four”. In the first week, it continued to rise, with prices ranging from 9300-9700 yuan/ton, and mainstream enterprises simultaneously adjusted up their factory prices. On April 8th, crude oil and upstream pure benzene and propylene prices fell sharply, while phenol prices began to rebound. The daily decline on April 8th reached 2.24%, and on April 10th, it decreased by 2.14% compared to the beginning of the month. From mid month to the end of the month, the core regions of East China, Shandong, and South China experienced a simultaneous general decline. As of the end of the month, the mainstream domestic price remained in the range of 8800-9200 yuan/ton, with a significant decrease from the high at the beginning of the month.
（1） Cost side support collapse
The international crude oil prices plummeted sharply after running at a high level at the beginning of the month, driving down the prices of core raw materials such as pure benzene and propylene. Pure benzene fell by more than 7% in a single day, and the cost support for phenol completely collapsed, highlighting downward pressure.
（2） Weak demand side
Although there is a strong demand for downstream industries such as bisphenol A and phenolic resin, the high price of phenol has led to a sharp increase in downstream cost pressure. Enterprises have shifted their procurement to on-demand replenishment, speculative demand has disappeared, and the transmission of the industrial chain has been hindered, resulting in negative feedback.
（3） High level operation on the supply side
In April, the utilization rate of domestic phenol ketone production capacity remained at a high level of 86.0% -86.5%. Although some overseas enterprises reduced their losses, the impact on the domestic market was limited, and the stable supply intensified the pressure on circulation.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the short-term support for crude oil and raw material prices is limited, and downstream demand is difficult to recover quickly. The phenol market will continue to fluctuate weakly. There are long-term opportunities for export and high-end demand growth, but in the short term, supply-demand imbalance and weak costs remain dominant. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak in May, and attention should be paid to changes in crude oil, demand, and overseas supply.

http://www.thiourea.net

Zinc prices experience a stampede pullback, giving up this week’s gains (4.21-4.28)

lubon — Tue, 05 May 2026 01:31:17 +0000

As of April 28th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% from the zinc price of 23954 yuan/ton on April 21st.
On April 28th, it plummeted 516 yuan/ton in a single day, completely giving up this week’s gains and hitting a new low in nearly two weeks, with the largest single day decline since the rebound in March.
Fundamental and message driven
The sharp decline this time is the result of four negative resonances: firstly, the vacuum effect of pre holiday demand. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream galvanizing, die-casting, and zinc oxide enterprises have all stopped production ahead of schedule to reduce losses, and raw material procurement has basically stagnated, causing spot market trading to hit a freezing point; The second is the concentrated redemption of high-level profit taking positions. Since the rebound started in March, the cumulative increase in zinc prices has exceeded 7.5%, approaching a three-and-a-half-year high. Long positions have benefited greatly, and pre holiday safe haven exits have triggered a stampede; Thirdly, there has been a substantial reversal in the supply and demand pattern. The latest data from ILZSG shows that in February, the global shortage of refined zinc increased from 21900 tons to an excess of 49600 tons, and the expected surplus for the whole year of 2026 has been raised to 175000 tons; Fourthly, macro risk appetite has fallen, with the Federal Reserve’s May interest rate meeting approaching and the US dollar index running strong, putting overall pressure on industrial metals.
comprehensive analysis
Short term zinc prices will continue to show a weak adjustment trend. If downstream demand fails to effectively recover after May Day, the price is expected to drop by 23500 yuan/ton, and the medium-term downward target is expected to reach 23000 yuan/ton; In terms of the upward trend, it is necessary to increase volume and break through the pressure level of 24000 yuan/ton in order to reverse the short-term decline.

http://www.thiourea.net

Cost reduced and formaldehyde prices are weak

lubon — Tue, 28 Apr 2026 01:37:09 +0000

According to the Business Society Spot News, in the second half of April, the formaldehyde market showed a trend of high-level decline and fluctuating weakness. As of April 27th, the average formaldehyde price in Shandong Province was reported at 1386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.74% from the middle of the month and still at a high level for a year.
Driving factor analysis
1. Weakening of cost support: Weakening of raw material methanol prices
The core raw material of formaldehyde is methanol, and its price trend directly determines the cost line of formaldehyde. In the second half of April, the domestic methanol market was affected by expectations of loose supply and demand, resulting in price fluctuations and weakened prices. In some regions, the ex factory price of methanol fell, directly compressing the cost support of formaldehyde enterprises. When the cost of raw materials loosens and the bargaining power of downstream buyers increases, it forces formaldehyde companies to lower their prices to match cost changes, which is an important fundamental factor in the current round of formaldehyde price decline.
2. Continued weakness on the demand side: downstream demand for artificial board industry significantly decreases
The core downstream applications of formaldehyde are in the building materials industry such as artificial boards and adhesives. The core drag of this round of market downturn is the significant contraction of demand in the downstream artificial board industry. In mid to late April, artificial board companies were affected by the sluggish demand in the terminal real estate and home decoration markets, resulting in a sustained low operating rate and a significant reduction in the purchase of formaldehyde. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises generally have no intention of stocking up before the holiday, and the procurement pace only maintains the replenishment of essential needs. The market transaction lacks support for large volume, and the driving force for price increases is completely lost.
3. The weak situation cannot be changed by reducing the supply side, and enterprises offer discounts to control inventory during shipment
Although some formaldehyde companies have proactively adjusted their operating loads and reduced their on-site supply to a certain extent, the supply reduction is still difficult to effectively boost the market due to the cliff like weakening of the demand side. Under the dual pressure of low demand and accumulated inventory, many formaldehyde factories in China have been forced to adopt a strategy of discounted shipments, accelerating inventory turnover by lowering prices and expanding discounts, maintaining controllable inventory levels, and directly exacerbating the downward pressure on market prices.
Market forecast:
The short-term decline has slowed down, with weak fluctuations being the main trend. Short term demand is difficult to quickly recover, and there is insufficient stocking demand before the holidays. Enterprises will continue to offer discounts for shipments; However, the previous decline has partially absorbed the bearish sentiment, and low-priced goods may attract a small amount of essential replenishment. The space for further significant price drops is limited, and the market is mainly fluctuating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the trend of raw material methanol, downstream demand recovery, and supply side adjustment efforts.

http://www.thiourea.net

Supported by raw materials, nickel prices are trending towards a stronger trend

lubon — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 01:37:13 +0000

1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 145933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 14.86%.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 5 times in the past 12 weeks, with a strong rebound in nickel prices recently.
LME nickel inventory
Macroscopically, the initial value of the US manufacturing PMI in April directly hit 54.0, far exceeding expectations and setting a new high in nearly four years. The US economy is so hot that there is no need for the Federal Reserve to urgently cut interest rates. The employment data is also very hard, with only a slight increase in the number of initial jobless claims. The US dollar index rebounded in response, approaching the 99 level, and the US stock market closed down across the board.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in March was 37337 tons, an increase of 14.53% month on month and 1.83% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for April is 38830 tons, an increase of 4.00% month on month and 6.53% year-on-year.
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The consumption of alloys is gradually recovering, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. The weak performance of stainless steel highlights the mentality of steel mills to suppress raw material prices; The high price of MHP provides support for the cost of nickel sulfate, but there is no significant increase in downstream ternary precursor orders, with nickel sulfate prices mainly fluctuating.
News: Eramet released its first quarter financial report for 2026, stating that Weda Bay Nickel Mine is expected to exhaust its annual quota by mid May due to the reduction of its initial RKAB quota to 12 million wet tons (external sales cap of 9 million wet tons) in 2026. Subsequently, the mine will enter a maintenance state and is applying for an increase in quota to strengthen market expectations of tight raw materials. After the recent implementation of the revised HPM policy in Indonesia, the pricing of new contracts continues to play a game, and the market is exploring the FOB and CIF dual track models, making it difficult to reach a unified premium consensus in the short term. In addition, due to the fluctuation of conflict expectations, sulfur supply has been hindered, MHP production costs have significantly increased, and bottom support has been strengthened.
In summary, there is an expectation of reduced production of intermediate products on the raw material side, but downstream demand for ternary products has significantly fallen, and nickel sulfate prices have fluctuated strongly. The demand side stainless steel is showing signs of fatigue, but with the expansion of stainless steel profits, it is expected that steel mills will alleviate their mentality of price suppression towards nickel iron; Affected by policies and structural crowding out of iron and lithium, there has been no significant increase in orders for ternary precursor and positive electrode material enterprises, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. In terms of inventory, there has been a moderate reduction in overseas inventory recently, while domestic inventory continues to be stockpiled. The price comparison between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed. Overall, the bottom of costs has risen under the multiple supports of raw materials, and the expectation of reduced production of intermediate products has also driven sentiment. However, the current supply pressure of refined nickel is compounded by insufficient inventory digestion. It is expected that nickel prices will mainly experience strong fluctuations.

http://www.thiourea.net

Weak cost support, weak acetic anhydride market, downward trend

lubon — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 01:14:23 +0000

Recently, the price of acetic anhydride has continued to decline
According to Shengyishe Spot News, as of April 22, the price of acetic anhydride was 6100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1125 yuan/ton or 15.57% compared to the price of 7225 yuan/ton on April 11. Recently (4.11-4.22), the price of acetic anhydride has continued to decline. Acetic anhydride enterprises have started operating smoothly and the market supply is sufficient; Downstream customers generally accept high priced goods, with low purchasing enthusiasm and weak market trading atmosphere; In terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid continues to decline, cost support is weak, market sentiment is bearish, and manufacturers have a clear intention to ship, resulting in a weak downward trend in the acetic anhydride market.
Acetic acid market falls sharply
According to the Business Society Spot News, from April 11th to 22nd, the price of acetic acid fell from 4750 yuan/ton to 3966.67 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation of 16.49%. The operating rate of the acetic acid plant is at a medium to high level, and the market supply of goods is stable. The downstream demand performance is poor, and the market has dropped significantly. The demand side has suppressed the price of acetic acid. In addition, the cost support of raw material methanol is limited, and the acetic acid market is bearish, resulting in a wide range of price declines. The cost side has a negative impact on the acetic anhydride market.
outlook for the future market
The acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of raw material acetic acid is weak, the cost of acetic anhydride is bearish, downstream demand is limited, market support is insufficient, and acetic anhydride enterprises are under pressure. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will continue to operate weakly in the later stage, and specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market.

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