According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8533 yuan/ton, an increase of 2500 yuan or 41.44% from March 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 6033 yuan/ton).
1、 Price Trend Review
In early March (3.1-3.10), due to the impact of the geopolitical situation, the cost side drove the rapid rise of the n-butanol market in Shandong. Mainstream factories in Shandong have significantly increased their factory prices due to cost pressures, with prices surging to 8566 yuan/ton on March 10th.
In mid March (3.11-3.19), the n-butanol market experienced a downturn. In the early stage, high prices stimulated some companies to restart their equipment, and the market supply was temporarily loose. Coupled with cautious downstream procurement, the price briefly fell to 7866 yuan/ton.
In late March (3.19-3.31), the n-butanol market continued to rise, with incomplete resumption of maintenance equipment and reduced import sources due to international logistics, resulting in a further tight supply; At the same time, the company’s inventory remains low, with a strong willingness to raise prices, pushing prices back to above 8500 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Cost side: Crude oil propylene chain skyrockets, forming rigid support
In March 2026, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East pushed up international crude oil prices, with US crude oil rising by over 39% in a single month, directly driving up the prices of upstream raw materials such as naphtha and propylene. Propylene accounts for a relatively large proportion of the production raw materials for n-butanol, so the sharp rise in raw material propylene led to a direct increase in production costs for enterprises, strengthening market expectations for price increases.
Geopolitics and Logistics: International Supply Chain Disturbance, Decreased Import Sources
The shipping efficiency in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, resulting in delays in the arrival of some imported n-butanol sources at ports. Domestic port inventories have decreased by 10% -15% month on month, and the import replenishment effect has weakened.
Due to the impact of energy costs, the operating rate of overseas facilities is insufficient, the international market supply is tight, and domestic enterprises’ export quotations are synchronously raised. The phenomenon of inverted price differences between domestic and foreign markets has eased, further supporting domestic prices.
Market supply and demand impact
The optimistic sentiment of the market towards the peak season of “Golden Three, Silver Four” has amplified the impact of changes in the supply and demand margin, driving prices to rise beyond expectations.
Future forecast
Macro and supply-demand analysis
Supply side: With the resumption of maintenance equipment, the industry’s operating rate is expected to rebound in April, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. However, if the price of raw material propylene remains high, the willingness of enterprises to operate will still be limited.
On the demand side: The traditional peak season of “Silver IV” will still support rigid demand, but downstream acceptance of high prices has reached a critical point. If prices continue to rise, there may be a wait-and-see attitude towards procurement.
Macro risk: If the situation in the Middle East eases, the pullback in crude oil prices will directly affect the cost support of propylene and n-butanol, and we need to be alert to the risk of price pullback; If the geopolitical conflict persists, the cost side will still dominate the market trend.
Technical analysis
According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society’s spot market, in early March, the 10 day moving average of n-butanol crossed the 20 day moving average, and the short-term (10 day) moving averages were all higher than the long-term (20 day) moving averages. In March, the overall market situation of n-butanol showed an upward trend. At the end of March, the 10 day moving average of n-butanol once again crossed the 20 day moving average, so it is predicted that the spot market price of n-butanol will likely continue to show an upward trend in the short term. However, auxiliary indicators show that the current price of n-butanol is at a high level among the five tiers. Therefore, the predicted price increase of n-butanol in the future is limited, and it mainly oscillates at high levels. Special attention should be paid to fluctuations in crude oil prices, equipment operation, and changes in downstream orders.
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