On December 2, TDI prices in East China rose slightly

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (November 30): 14375.00 yuan / ton

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Key points of analysis: the domestic TDI market is sorted and operated. In terms of supply, the TDI device operates normally, the factory has no inventory pressure, the downstream purchase just needs to be followed up, the on-site trading is weak, the demand for terminal products is weak, the export orders are reduced, the on-site new order transaction is not smooth, and the support for TDI is weak. According to market news, Wanhua Fujian plant will be shut down for maintenance near December 10, and the quotation of individual manufacturers will be slightly increased. At present, the quotation of TDI domestic goods in East China distribution market is about 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 14200-14500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation.

Future forecast: wait and see the short-term TDI market, pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

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In November, the domestic epoxy resin market price continued to fall

In November, the epoxy resin market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business society, the offer of East China liquid resin market was 31000 yuan / ton on November 1, and fell to 27500-28000 yuan / ton on November 30, with an offer decrease of 11%. The sharp decline in the epoxy resin market was mainly affected by the decline in the raw material end, the negative cost side intensified, and the epoxy resin continued to decline.

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In November, the domestic bisphenol a market rose and fell repeatedly with high fluctuation frequency. According to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic bisphenol a market offer was 18500 yuan / ton on November 1, and 16875 yuan / ton on November 30, with a decrease of 8.75% in the month. Among them, November 3 was the lowest point in the month, and the offer was 15800 yuan / ton. In November, there were frequent fluctuations. As of press time, the offer of East China mainstream market is 16700 yuan / ton, and that of North China mainstream market is 16700 yuan / ton. On November 30, the bisphenol a commodity index was 161.78, down 42.87% from the highest point of 283.19 in the cycle (2021-04-16), and up 124.41% from the lowest point of 72.09 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to the present) in December, the bisphenol a market was cautious, focusing on interval consolidation and operation. The market fluctuation was mainly affected by the situation of domestic factories, bidding and downstream demand.

In November, the price of epichlorohydrin fell weakly. At the end of the month, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 16133.33 yuan / ton, down 18.66% compared with the price on November 1. The market atmosphere was light. In the short term, the market of epichlorohydrin may be dominated by weak consolidation. In the first ten days, the cost support of propylene method was weak, the cost support of glycerol method was strong, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, the enterprise shipment was under pressure, and the price weakened. With the rise of raw propylene, the downstream epoxy resin price rose broadly, the market support was strengthened, the inquiry atmosphere improved, and the market rose, but the demand was still insufficient, and the price fell again. In the middle of the year, the price of raw propylene was weak, the cost support was weakened, the cost pressure of glycerol method remained, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry and procurement was not high, the shipment of enterprises was under pressure, the weak demand side dragged down market confidence, the trading atmosphere was light, and the price fell. In the latter half of the year, the supply was sufficient, the demand side was weak, and the focus of the negotiation weakened. With the gradual rise of the price of raw propylene, the cost support was gradually strengthened, and the manufacturers’ intention to lower the price was not strong. After the centralized replenishment in the downstream, the market atmosphere was light. At present, the demand side was weak, and the overall situation fell in the latter half of the year.

Device: the overall operating rate of liquid resin is about 60%; The operating rate of solid resin is 4-5%.

From the perspective of the chemical industry, it is still in the downward channel, and the epoxy resin market is greatly affected by the raw material end. The new production capacity of bisphenol A in December and the situation of domestic factories still need to be paid special attention. Business analysts believe that in the later stage, they pay more attention to the impact of industrial policies. According to the current situation, the epoxy resin market may continue to bottom in December.

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On November 30, TDI prices in East China decreased slightly

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (November 30): 14350.00 yuan / ton

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Key points of analysis: the domestic TDI market is weak, the supply side TDI device operates normally, the factory has no inventory pressure, the downstream demand is weak, the on-site trading is weak, the demand for terminal products is weakened, the on-site transaction of new orders is not smooth, the export orders are reduced, the support for TDI is insufficient, and the TDI market is sorted downward under the supply and demand game. At present, the quotation of TDI domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 14000-14200 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation.

Future forecast: the short-term TDI market will remain stable for the time being, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

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Crude oil “cliff” fell, PTA price fell by more than 3% in a single day

Crude oil fell “cliff style”, a new variant virus in South Africa triggered a huge wave in the market, and US oil plunged 13%, the largest decline since April last year. As of the close of last Friday (November 26), the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $10.24, or 13.1%, to $68.15/barrel. London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil (ice) futures fell $9.5, or 11.6%, to $72.72/barrel.

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PTA prices fell. According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic PTA spot market fell sharply today (November 29), and the average market price was 4619 yuan / ton, down 3.31% from the previous day and up 38.14% year-on-year. The main futures 2201 closed 4632 and settled 4650, down 238 or 4.89%. Honggang petrochemical and Yadong petrochemical units are about to be overhauled, and the start-up of domestic PTA units will decline, but it will remain at the high level of 81.71% as a whole, and the supply shows a slight accumulation of reserves.

In addition, the recent performance of orders in the terminal market is still weak. It is reported that on November 25, a number of mainstream polyester factories in China discussed and reached a consensus to implement the plan of reducing production by 20% based on the current output, which has been implemented successively in the past two days. In the follow-up, depending on the market situation or increase the intensity of production reduction to 25%, the current operating load of the polyester industry has fallen below 84%, and the PTA demand performance is weak.

Business analysts believe that the short-term international crude oil price plummeted, the cost support collapsed, superimposed with the production reduction expectations of many mainstream polyester factories, the pressure on PTA supply and demand increased, and the short-term PTA price is expected to continue to decline.

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Methanol market was “completely cool” in November

In November, the domestic methanol market fell unilaterally, with a significant decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3156 yuan / ton at the beginning of November and 2692 yuan / ton at the end of November. The price decreased by 14.72% and increased by 27.58% year-on-year.

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According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in October 2021, there were 12 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 10 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 62.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (29.09%), fuel oil (22.54%) and diesel (15.00%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were power coal (- 11.99%), methanol (- 7.27%) and petroleum coke (- 3.69%). The average increase and decrease this month was 6.93%.

Comparison chart of methanol price trend of business society in 2017-2021:

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of November 27:

Region, price

Qinghai region 3500 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Shanxi region 2640-2670 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region 2720-2750 yuan / ton

Fujian region RMB 2850-2900 yuan / ton, cash out of warehouse nearby

Lianghu area The actual ex factory reference is 2700-2750 yuan / ton, and the factory withdraws cash exchange

Anhui region 2850-2880 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan region 2845-2850 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

At the beginning of the month, the methanol market continued to decline, mainly due to the low price of raw coal affected by policies. Although the coal price has stopped falling, the policy pricing is still, and the coal price is low. The news that some MTO devices are planned to restart this week has not been fulfilled, the positive expectations have been dashed, and the mentality of some operators is lack of support, while the traditional downstream demand enterprises are just focusing on demand, and there is no obvious large-scale situation. Methanol market fell significantly.

In mid June, the methanol market was low, mainly due to the weak macro level, the decline of international oil price, more methanol restart devices and the increase of inventory in the mainland and ports. Poor macro sentiment dragged the market down further. Under the background of general shipments, the main production areas in the mainland made a second adjustment with the breaking of futures, but it was still difficult to make large-scale transactions except for the just needed supplement; The downstream inventory in the mainland’s main sales area has fallen to the low point of the year, and the freight has also increased due to the weather, but it is slightly insufficient to support the market price.

In late June, the methanol market fell deeply. Due to the decline of coal price and the weakening of methanol cost support, Baofeng and other olefin enterprises sold methanol away, and some methanol units were restored, the supply side was abundant. In the middle of the week, the quotations of major manufacturers were successively reduced, and the price adjustment range was 100-200 yuan / ton, resulting in the continued downward price focus of the domestic methanol market, difficult transaction volume and cautious market mentality.

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At the end of the month, the domestic methanol atmosphere improved and the price rebounded in a narrow range. The main production areas in the mainland delivered better at the beginning of the week. Although Guanzhong was relatively weak in the northwest, it soon turned better under the operation of Pucheng olefin export. Appropriate replenishment by downstream enterprises and expected stimulation from the recovery of olefin units such as Zhejiang Xingxing.

Monthly K column chart of methanol domestic production price:

Weekly K column chart of methanol domestic production price:

In terms of industrial chain, the coal price of methanol upstream products fluctuates in a narrow range, and the domestic LNG market fluctuates downward, but the price fluctuation is small, with an adjustment range of about 1%, which has weak support for the cost of methanol. In downstream products, the market price of dimethyl ether fluctuates in a narrow range; Formaldehyde market low finishing; Acetic acid market rose first and then fell, with an overall narrow range.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on November 25, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $452.50-453.50/ton. US Gulf methanol market closed at 127.50-128.50 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 369.00-370.00 euros / ton, up 0.5 euros / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 452.50-453.50/ton USD 0 / ton

Europe and America American Gulf 127.50-128.50 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 368.50-369.50 euros / ton 0 euro / ton

In the future, in terms of cost, the supply has increased under the policy of ensuring supply and increasing production in the main producing area, and the growth rate is fast. Most coal mines mainly guarantee power supply coal. Coal mines actively respond to price reduction and sales, and the replenishment of storage in the downstream has temporarily come to an end. The inventory is high, and the coal price may weaken steadily in the near future. The macro level may continue to be weak, and the support of power coal to methanol cost may be weakened. In terms of fundamentals, the marginal supply decreases and the demand is expected to increase. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market is expected to rise in the short term.

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