There has been no significant improvement in the fundamentals this week, with overall supply being loose and no expected reduction in the short term. Demand remains overall, with demand mainly driven by on-demand purchases. Acrylonitrile manufacturers continue to lower prices. As of October 24th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7800-7900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton compared to last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 7800-7900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week.
Loose supply:
There has been no fluctuation in the equipment during the week, and the 92000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit of Fushun Petrochemical is still in a shutdown state. The restart time has been postponed, and the specific time is yet to be determined. During the cycle, the supply remains loose, but at the same time, downstream users are restocking at low levels, and factory inventory is still controllable. According to statistics, as of October 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 79.37%, with a weekly output of about 90500 tons, which was the same as the previous cycle. The total inventory is around 51000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Decreased demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile decreased, among which the capacity utilization rate of ABS was 72.8%, which was -0.3% compared to last week; The 60000 ton acrylic fiber plant of Qilu Petrochemical will gradually shut down for maintenance starting from October 15th, with a planned duration of about a month. The capacity utilization rate of the acrylic fiber enterprise will reach 73.39%, which is 2.24% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity reached 54.21%, a decrease of -0.4% compared to last week, indicating a decrease in overall demand.
Cost reduction:
This week, the decline in raw material propylene prices has widened, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened. As of October 23rd, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6000-6050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120-150 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6150-6170 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price decline of acrylonitrile narrowed, and the production loss situation slightly improved this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8423 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -2.40%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -533 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 165 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, there is still no improvement in the fundamentals, and the supply continues to ease. At the same time, the cost support has weakened recently, and supplier quotations have gradually decreased. Market expectations are still bearish, and changes in the supply side are still the direct factor for whether the market can truly bottom out in the future.

The strengthening of oil prices has led to a rebound in commodity sentiment, with downstream demand stabilizing during the traditional peak season and PTA prices strengthening. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 23, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4467 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.16% from the previous trading day.
The decline in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, coupled with the easing of market concerns about trade disputes, has led to an increase in international oil prices. On October 22nd, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.50 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $62.59 per barrel.
In terms of PTA, the supply side of Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton plant reduced its load to 80% on October 17th, and Yisheng New Materials resumed production of 3.6 million tons on October 14th. The overall operating rate of the industry is around 75%. The follow-up maintenance plans for Sichuan Energy Investment with 1 million yuan and INEOS with 1.1 million yuan in October, and Dushan Energy’s new device with 3 million yuan planned to be put into operation next week, will be closely monitored for actual implementation.
On the demand side, there is a fluctuation in the load of the polyester unit, but the overall change is not significant. The terminal weaving orders have recently improved due to the cold weather, with a temporary improvement in sentiment. However, the product differentiation is significant, and the overall demand is lower than the same period in previous years. The seasonal strengthening is highly limited, and the quality during peak seasons is insufficient. Most of them focus on preparing raw materials in the early stage of digestion, maintaining a strong demand for raw material procurement.
Business analysts believe that the PTA price trend is once again dominated by macro politics and commodity sentiment, with strong cost side support for crude oil prices. As the weather turns cold, the demand side is experiencing a structural recovery in domestic sales, and orders for autumn and winter are improving. Therefore, there is a sustained expectation of a rebound in the PTA market in the short term.

In the third quarter of 2025, the nylon filament market lacks favorable conditions, and the overall price trend is downward. Taking nylon DTY as an example, as of September 30th, the Jiangsu region’s nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) quoted 13880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4340 yuan/ton from the same period last year, a decrease of 23.82%.
The price of nylon filament has dropped significantly
Specifically, on the one hand, the weak downward trend in the price of raw material nylon PA6 for high-speed spinning has had a negative impact on the cost of nylon filament; On the other hand, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, with downstream orders being relatively low during the quarter. In the context of high inventory, the main focus is on digesting inventory, and the enthusiasm for purchasing upstream raw materials is insufficient. The demand transmission from bottom to top is not smooth, resulting in continuous weak shipments from nylon filament manufacturers and increasing inventory pressure. In addition, from the perspective of downstream weaving industry, there is insufficient action on the price of raw fabric, resulting in low profits and thus suppressing the price of nylon filament. Overall, in the absence of favorable market conditions, the price of nylon filament yarn showed a downward trend throughout the quarter.
Raw material side runs empty
In the third quarter of 2025, the domestic nylon PA6 market will experience a weak downward trend, mainly influenced by two factors: firstly, the supply of nylon PA6 will increase, but the consumption will decrease, and the supply-demand contradiction will intensify; Secondly, the price of raw material PA6 for high-speed spinning has decreased. As of September 30th, the price was 10133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.41% from early July, indicating a bearish cost outlook. As a result, the price of nylon filament has decreased.
Prominent supply-demand contradiction
In the third quarter of 2025, only the transaction situation of nylon DTY fine denier was relatively good, and some enterprises had a backlog phenomenon. However, the overall activity was far below the same period last year. Overall, the market demand performance was weak, leading to increasing inventory pressure on nylon factories. Specifically, downstream orders are relatively low and inventory is high, so there is a lack of speculative demand for nylon filament. As of September 30th, the operating rate of downstream weaving machines was 69%, a decrease of 5 percentage points from the same period last year. As a result, the inventory level of nylon manufacturers continues to increase, and although some manufacturers have reduced production operations, the relief effect on inventory pressure is limited.
The raw material market in the fourth quarter may be weak and difficult to change
It is expected that the market price of nylon PA6 will remain low in the fourth quarter, which lacks support for the price of nylon filament. Specifically, in terms of supply and demand, new PA6 production capacity will continue to be released, with plans to add 600000 tons of production capacity within the quarter. By the end of the year, the total industry production capacity may reach 8.858 million tons, with a significant increase in supply. Especially this year, the market has shown the characteristics of weak peak season and even weaker off-season. By comparison, it is expected that the production of PA6 in the fourth quarter will be 1.787 million tons, with a consumption of 1.466 million tons, and the supply-demand gap will expand to over 300000 tons. In terms of cost, the weak downstream demand for pure benzene in the fourth quarter and the high amount of pure benzene arriving in Hong Kong may have a negative impact on prices, which will then be transmitted downwards to the caprolactam market and PA6 market, thus lacking support for nylon filament.
The supply-demand contradiction may continue

On the supply side, according to incomplete statistics, there may be about 440000 tons of new production capacity released in the fourth quarter of nylon yarn. However, under high inventory pressure, it is expected that the industry’s operating level may be significantly lower than in the third quarter. As a result, production may be around 1.1258 million tons, a decrease of 1.62% month on month, which is relatively small, and the supply side may continue to be under pressure.
In terms of demand, terminal demand may remain weak and be transmitted upwards to the weaving process, making it difficult to effectively alleviate the pressure on raw fabric inventory. Therefore, it is expected that demand will continue to be light. In addition, the rise in raw fabric inventory prices is difficult to start, which may continue to suppress the price of nylon filament.
Overall, according to previous years, October is the traditional peak demand season for “golden September and silver October”, and the probability of nylon filament prices rising is relatively high. From November to December, the probability of a downward trend is relatively high. However, in the fourth quarter, nylon filament prices may show a downward trend due to cost declines and prominent supply-demand contradictions. Therefore, it is expected that October will break the seasonal pattern, and the seasonal pattern from November to December will remain unchanged. Business analysts predict that the mainstream transaction prices of domestic nylon filament will continue to decline in the fourth quarter due to supply side pressure and weak raw material and demand sides.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has recently ended its volatile market and rebounded. On October 21st, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 75016 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.74% compared to the same period last week (October 14th), a month on month increase of 2.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.84%. The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 73166 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.81% compared to the same period last week (October 14th), a month on month increase of 2.69%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.15%.
Boosting sentiment in futures market
Last week (October 13-1017), the warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate futures decreased from 42669 lots to 30686 lots, resulting in a destocking of 12000 tons of lithium carbonate, reflecting strong demand in the current market and insufficient downstream stocking.
Explosive demand: dual wheel drive of new energy and energy storage
New energy vehicle demand exceeds expectations: According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.5 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and single month sales reached a historic high. The strong demand from end-users is directly transmitted to the upstream industry chain. The delivery cycle of orders from leading battery companies such as CATL and BYD has been extended to 45 days, and the production rate in September remains above 95%. The production of positive electrode material factories continues to rise month on month, forcing the concentrated release of demand for lithium carbonate procurement.
The demand for energy storage has exploded: According to the production scheduling data of domestic battery companies in October, the total output of power, energy storage, and consumer batteries reached 186GWh, an increase of 22.4% compared to the previous month. Among them, the proportion of energy storage battery cell production was as high as 40.3%, and the production lines of top enterprises were operating at full capacity. At the domestic policy level, the “Special Action Plan for the Large scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027)” specifies that the installed capacity will exceed 100 million kilowatts in the next three years, further opening up the consumption space of lithium resources.
Continuously reducing inventory to solidify the price foundation
As of early October, the total inventory of lithium carbonate in China decreased by 2023 tons to 134802 tons month on month, providing solid support for spot prices due to the continuous destocking trend.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that lithium carbonate is currently in a short-term strong oscillation under tight balance, but the total inventory of 130000 tons still suppresses the increase, making it difficult to quickly break through the previous high point. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.

Last week (October 13-19, 2025), the execution of orders was the main focus, and the trend of the adhesive short fiber market remained stable. The fluctuation of the raw material main material dissolution slurry market was not significant, and the performance on the cost side was average, with limited support on the cost side; The overall inventory level in the market is not high, and there is no obvious inventory pressure at the moment. Supply side support still exists, and downstream cotton yarn factories mainly consume inventory, following up on demand. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable, and the prices of viscose staple fiber market are weak and consolidating, continuing the stable trend.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (October 13-19, 2025), the market price of viscose staple fiber was weakly stable. As of October 19, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous price.
In terms of cost: Last week (October 13-19, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolving pulp, with a weak and stagnant situation. The cost side performance was average and limited support. As of now, the price of domestic dissolving pulp is around 6700 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved pulp is around 800 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 870 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remain stable but fluctuate slightly, with average cost support.
Low inventory level
The industry supply remains stable, and the current daily operating rate in the market remains at around 75%. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are not high, and downstream yarn enterprises pick up goods according to demand. The overall inventory of the adhesive short fiber market has decreased, and the supply fluctuation in the industry is not significant. Some manufacturers have low inventory, and the support from the supply side is limited.
Downstream on-demand pickup
The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment has slightly increased, and price fluctuations are not significant. As of October 19th, the price of ring spun R30S in Jiangsu region is around 17200 yuan/ton, and the price of ring spun R40S is around 18300 yuan/ton. The market is in a traditional off-season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn market transactions are not ideal. Only a few models of vortex spun cotton yarn have slightly better export orders. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish urgently needed goods, with no significant improvement in demand.
Market forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will be insufficient.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have low inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be strong in the short term; The demand in the terminal market has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be limited in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with sufficient overall supply. Downstream yarn factories mainly sign orders and purchase on demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, Business Society analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the price is expected to be around 13000-13200 yuan/ton for acceptance.