Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in January
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on January 15th was 455800 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.36% compared to the cobalt price of 462100 yuan/ton on January 1st. The recovery of cobalt exports in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to an increase in supply expectations in the cobalt market, coupled with a decrease in demand in January, resulting in a volatile drop in cobalt prices.
Supply situation of cobalt market
On December 22, 2025, relevant news from the Democratic Republic of Congo: Tengkefenggulumei Mining officially launched its first shipment sampling under the new export quota system. With the continuous promotion of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, it is expected that cobalt supply will resume in the future. The global supply of cobalt raw materials is highly concentrated in a few countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has significantly reduced its export quotas and set customs clearance deadlines. The shortage of cobalt supply in the market is difficult to change; However, the planned nickel cobalt projects that can provide supplementary resources are delayed in infrastructure construction, and their production progress is later than expected, making it difficult to effectively fill the supply gap in the cobalt market in the short term; Factors such as the improvement of environmental standards have further constrained the short-term release of production capacity, and the overall shortage of cobalt market remains.
Cobalt market demand trend
Due to the influence of the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, January and February are traditionally the off-season for sales, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises is poor, with many car companies shutting down production. The enthusiasm for purchasing power batteries for new energy vehicles has decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the cobalt market has declined during the off-season for power battery consumption. The latest performance guidelines released by some leading companies in the industry chain show that their business focus is accelerating towards high-end products, such as high nickel cathode materials. In terms of power batteries, which are the most important demand in the cobalt market, the weak demand in the cobalt market has increased the pressure of falling due to the support of rising cobalt prices.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Business Society data analysts believe that the slight decline in cobalt prices in January is mainly due to the long-term expectation of supply recovery in the cobalt market and the result of the current weak demand game. In the future, the supply-demand game is difficult to sustain, and due to logistics delays, the arrival time of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo to China should be concentrated in April. Supply shortage is the main tone of the first quarter, while in terms of demand, downstream stocking before the Spring Festival will usher in a small peak in cobalt market demand. In addition, with the resumption of production by car companies after the holiday, the supply shortage in the cobalt market may erupt in a concentrated manner. Cobalt prices may rebound in late January or experience a small surge in February.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on January 14, 2025, the reference ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was 6350 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as January 1; Compared with December 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 6387 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59%.
In early January, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong showed a fluctuating trend of “first stabilizing, then falling, and then rebounding”
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early January, the market performance of Shandong cyclohexanone was stable, with little fluctuation in the market, and the overall market was in a sideways consolidation stage, with limited price elasticity. On the 9th, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province was adjusted narrowly downwards, with the market price dropping to around 6300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market continued to consolidate and operate. On the 14th, with the support of the cost side, the cyclohexanone market experienced a correction, and the overall price returned to the level at the beginning of the month. As of January 14th, the market price reference for cyclohexanone in Shandong is around 6350-6400 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
In terms of cost: At the beginning of the month, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated narrowly, providing stable cost support for cyclohexanone. Subsequently, the pure benzene market experienced a slight decline due to fluctuations in crude oil prices and weak downstream demand. The production cost support for cyclohexanone weakened, and the company passively lowered its quotation to ensure shipment volume. Subsequently, the pure benzene market rebounded due to the rebound in crude oil prices and the rise in prices by manufacturers. The production cost of cyclohexanone supported the repair, and companies raised their quotations accordingly.
In terms of supply and demand: In early January, the overall performance of the cyclohexanone market supply side was relatively stable. During the period of cyclohexanone price reduction, downstream demand overall improved by restocking on dips. After the cyclohexanone market rebounded, market demand recovered weakly.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is light and mild, and downstream pre holiday stocking has not yet been fully opened. The overall supply and demand transmission in the market is weak and stable. The cyclohexanone data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly operate in a range of fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China showed a strong upward trend this week (1.1-11.13), with an average market price of 326340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 381240 yuan/ton as of January 13, an increase of 16.82%.
The domestic tin price has once again risen strongly, with the main contract price of Shanghai tin significantly increasing, and the domestic spot tin market price has also risen significantly. Although there was a slight technical correction during this period, the overall focus shifted upwards, and the recent trend is the result of the combined effects of macro expectations, industry fundamentals, and short-term supply disturbances.
Macroscopic perspective
Although the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has fallen slightly, it is still in the cycle of interest rate cuts, and the expectation of global liquidity easing provides liquidity support for the metal market. As the world’s largest tin exporting country, Indonesia’s mining quota approval progress and export policy dynamics have always been like the “Damocles Sword” hanging over the market, keeping the market vigilant at all times. At the same time, domestic industrial policies related to new quality productivity fields such as artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing are accelerating their implementation, adding certainty to the long-term demand for tin applications.
supply side
Continued mining disturbance: Although there is a peace agreement in the armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, local areas remain unstable, and there is uncertainty in tin production and transportation; The progress of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar has been affected by the approval process and is not as expected, resulting in significant fluctuations in tin ore imports.
Indonesia’s exports are restricted: In the application for export quotas, Indonesia’s short-term exports have sharply decreased, further exacerbating the global shortage of tin ore supply.
Low inventory: Global tin inventory continues to decline, with both exchange receipts and social inventory at historical lows. Domestic inventory has decreased by 1100 tons compared to the beginning of the month, reaching a total of 6245 tons.
Demand side
The demand in the semiconductor market is strong: global semiconductor sales continue to rise, with a year-on-year growth of 21.2% from January to October 2025. Due to the strong demand for tin in the semiconductor industry, especially in high-end chip manufacturing and packaging.
Emerging fields drive demand growth: With the rapid development of emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and photovoltaics, tin, as a key solder material, continues to increase in demand, and the long-term demand trend presents a good development prospect.
The spot market has been affected by the recent surge in tin prices, and downstream purchasing sentiment has been sluggish. The pressure of raw material costs is gradually transmitted downwards along the industrial chain, and downstream enterprises mostly adopt on-demand procurement, with weak willingness to replenish inventory. There are not many resources circulating in the spot market, although the premium has decreased.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the active performance of the foreign market has had a driving effect on domestic prices. Currently, the overseas market has experienced a decline after rising, turning into a range oscillation trend, and it is expected that Shanghai Wuxi will also enter a synchronized oscillation trend. Under the support of strong fundamentals in the short term, it is expected to maintain a strong pattern, with the price center at a high level, which may potentially impact the 400000 mark. But we should also be vigilant about the insufficient support on the demand side of the spot market and the risk of a pullback.

The current acrylic acid market is facing a dilemma of ups and downs. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 5866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of this month.
Cost side:
The price of the main raw material propylene remained relatively firm against the backdrop of winter demand and fluctuations in international oil prices. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of propylene was 5871.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.68% compared to the beginning of this month. This also determines the bottom line of cost for acrylic acid. The profit margin of manufacturers has been compressed, and their willingness to proactively lower prices is not strong.
Supply side:
Although 2025-2026 is the period for the introduction of new acrylic acid production capacity in China, since the beginning of the year, some major factories have carried out unplanned or extended shutdowns and maintenance, offsetting some of the supply increase brought by the new production capacity. The overall operating rate of the industry remains in the range of 75% -80%, and inventory levels are in the middle range, without forming significant pressure.
Demand side:
January and February are the traditional off-season for downstream production of coatings, adhesives, etc., with rigid procurement being the main focus. The slow recovery of the terminal consumer market has led downstream enterprises to adopt a strategy of “purchasing on demand and maintaining low inventory” for raw materials, and large-scale hoarding behavior is rare. This has suppressed the upward momentum of prices, but also means that the market has not accumulated huge speculative inventory risks. The overseas market demand maintains a certain resilience, providing a diversion channel for domestic supply and avoiding the comprehensive impact of overcapacity.
How long can the ‘stable’ state last?
The current weak balance is fragile and is expected to be broken by the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. Specifically, let’s take a look at the following key variables:
1. The intensity and pace of demand recovery
After March, downstream industries will enter the traditional peak season stocking period. If the effects of real estate policies become apparent and the consumer goods market rebounds, driving demand for butyl acrylate (coatings), superabsorbent polymers (SAP, used for hygiene products) and other products to rebound beyond expectations, the market will quickly clear inventory and prices are expected to break through. On the contrary, if the demand during peak season is “not in good condition”, the market will lose support due to disappointment.
2. Supply side variables
After the end of the first quarter, the pre maintenance equipment will gradually resume production, and the release of new production capacity will be more fully realized. The supply pressure will significantly increase in the second quarter. If the long-term price stalemate leads to a continuous deterioration of industry profits, some high cost devices may be forced to reduce load or shut down, thereby regulating supply again.
3. Macro and Cost Environment
The trend of international energy prices will directly reshape the cost line. If there is a trend of rising or falling crude oil prices, it will disrupt the current cost balance. The actual implementation effect of domestic policies to stabilize growth and promote consumption will determine the fundamental direction of terminal demand.
Conclusion: The current “stable” state of the acrylic acid market is a dynamic and fragile balance, and is expected to be difficult to sustain beyond the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter will be a critical period for direction selection, and its trend is highly dependent on the actual demand performance of the “traditional peak season” and the game of supply increment.
For market participants, it is not advisable to have excessive expectations for unilateral market trends at present. Flexible operations and strict inventory control are still the best strategies, and preparations should be made for possible trend trends in the second quarter.

1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 142816.67 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from the beginning of the week and up 12.56% year-on-year.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 7 times. Recently, nickel prices have risen rapidly and then fallen back.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically speaking, at the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched a crackdown on Venezuela and seized resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland, intensifying risk aversion. The US dollar seized the opportunity to rebound, oil prices fell, stock markets fluctuated, precious metals such as gold and silver retreated, and nickel prices fell under pressure.
News: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) claims that the government plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by about 34% by 2026. The world’s leading nickel producing country plans to make significant adjustments to its nickel mining quota for the new year, coupled with major producers suspending some mining operations due to unforeseen circumstances, which has raised concerns in the market about future supply tightening. Analysis indicates that if relevant policies are implemented, there may be a substantial gap in global nickel ore supply, which will have a direct impact on the country’s energy system, which accounts for the majority of the global supply share.
On the supply side, it is expected that refined nickel production will decrease month on month, and the short-term surplus pattern will narrow under the reduction in production. However, the overall spot supply in the market is still relatively sufficient. In November, China’s refined nickel production was 25800 tons, a decrease of 28.1% compared to the previous month.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises are buying at low prices, and the “Two Sessions” emphasize the long-term benefits of defense spending. The demand for stainless steel is generally low, and the depletion of social inventory is slow. There may be an increase in supply pressure due to the improvement of steel mill profits. Spot transactions are still cautious, and nickel iron prices have slightly increased recently. In terms of nickel sulfate, downstream ternary production decreased slightly after the end of the peak season reserve period, and there were constraints on the production of new capacity in the medium term. Recently, prices have fallen.
In summary, recent market trading has mainly focused on the pace of RKAB quotas in the Indonesian mining sector, and the actual implementation situation in the future remains to be observed. With high valuations and loose expectations, sentiment has sharply declined, and it is expected that nickel prices will experience a wide range of fluctuations and adjustments in the short term.