Entering December, the domestic ethylene glycol market continued its downward trend, with no changes in market guidance factors. Market confidence suffered an unprecedented blow, and price trends provided more feedback on the current mentality of industry players. With market operations waiting for the actual bottom to come, there has not been much discussion on subsequent trends. The market is getting closer and closer to its lowest point in March 2020, but considering fundamental factors, there is still no signal to stop the decline. Market confidence has dropped to freezing point, and it may be difficult for diethylene glycol to stop falling in the short term.
1、 Low price warning within the year
On December 1st, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol in East China fell to a new low for the year, reaching around 3030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36% compared to the highest point of 5100 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 28.5% compared to the opening price. Compared to the historical low of 2870 yuan/ton in March 2020, there is only a difference of 160 yuan/ton; However, the significant drop in diethylene glycol in 2020 was driven by the drop in crude oil prices, which is fundamentally different from the factors affecting the current market downturn. The supply of diethylene glycol in the market is strong and demand is weak, and there will still be incremental supply in the future. However, demand is expected to be weak, and prices have been continuously declining under the dominance of bears in the market. Diethylene glycol has sounded an alarm for ultra-low prices this year.
2、 Strong supply, weak demand, difficult to stop downward trend
At present, the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises is at a relatively high level of over 75% this year. Although with the maintenance of about 50000 tons/year of equipment in Quanzhou, China National Chemical Corporation in late November, and the planned maintenance of about 100000 tons/year equipment in Shenghong Refining and Chemical Corporation in early December, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease to around 71%; However, the overall supply pressure relief is limited, coupled with the suppression of weak demand at the end of the year, the support for the ethylene glycol market is limited. And the future supply is still expected to increase. BASF plans to officially start production in mid to late January 2026, Gulei Petrochemical plans to start production in the second half of the year, and Northeast Huajin Saudi Aramco is also expected to start production in 2026. However, the demand for diethylene glycol is limited, and due to its accompanying output characteristics, there is no direct pressure on its cost, so its price decline is mainly affected by supply and demand.
Therefore, in December, diethylene glycol was still suppressed by the supply-demand imbalance, with sufficient domestic supply and high port inventory for the year; At the end of the year, it is difficult to effectively boost demand, and bearish sentiment dominates the market, making it difficult for diethylene glycol to stop falling in the short term.
3、 Market ice breaking requires waiting for the right moment
In the second half of the year, with the restart of previous equipment and the investment of new production capacity in Yulong Petrochemical, and normal operation, domestic supply reached a historical high level, and the industry’s operating rate increased to 76.94% at its highest. With the increase of domestic supply, demand has not reached synchronous growth rate, and downstream procurement remains in high demand. Diethylene glycol’s “Golden Nine” has cooled down and “Silver Ten” has suffered setbacks; The market has repeatedly experienced low prices during the new year, causing a significant drop in market confidence, with bears dominating the market. Until the beginning of this month, there was still no sign of the market stopping its decline. At present, East China is about to fall below the new low of the year, one step closer to the historical low price in March 2020, and the market’s expectation of hitting the bottom is becoming increasingly strong. However, considering the weak demand at the end of the year, as well as the current market operating rate and the planned shutdown and maintenance of equipment, the reduction in supply is limited, so the possibility of a bottoming out rebound of diethylene glycol in December may not be high.

At present, market operators are cautious and keep trading with them, waiting for the bottom of diethylene glycol to come. From the perspective of supply and demand, if there are no new maintenance facilities added this month, there is no hope of boosting demand for diethylene glycol, and the market may still need time to stop falling and break the ice. Overall, it is highly likely that as the market gradually returns after the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovery may support the gradual recovery of the ethylene glycol market.

This week, the domestic epoxy propane market prices have risen. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of December 3rd, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7950 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.58% compared to December 1st.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased this week. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6168.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton). The cost support is still acceptable, and epoxy propane is the main focus of trading.
Supply side: Fluctuations in the supply side have affected the temporary supply tension of epoxy propane. Starting from November 20th, the epoxy propane unit of Sinochem Quanzhou will be shut down for annual maintenance, which is expected to last for 55-60 days. This prolonged maintenance will further strengthen the tight market supply situation. The tight supply situation has led to an upward trend in the price of epichlorohydrin.
Demand side: Downstream demand side follows up on the purchase of epoxy propane, with high purchasing enthusiasm. The atmosphere of epoxy propane enterprise trading is good, and shipments are smooth. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the later stage.
Market forecast:
The epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the support for the rise in propylene market prices on the raw material side is still acceptable, and the downstream demand side has high purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in smooth epoxy propane shipments. In addition, due to the tight market supply, it is expected that the epoxy propane market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region has fluctuated and risen this month. On November 1st, the price was 5172 yuan/ton; On November 28th, the price was 5247.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.46% from the beginning of the month.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in the domestic market has risen today. The spot market prices in East China are mainly stable, and currently, industry players have positive expectations for the future of pure benzene, with a strong market trend. Recently, the shipment situation in Shandong has been good, and there is good confidence in the market. The prices of local refining enterprises have slightly increased. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have maintained a stable price of 5300 yuan/ton for pure benzene, which will be implemented on November 5th. It is expected that the pure benzene market will fluctuate within a certain range in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.
This month, Sinopec has lowered the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan/ton to 5300 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On November 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The US futures market is closed for Thanksgiving. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February was $62.87 per barrel, an increase of $0.33 or 0.5%.
Foreign pure benzene: On November 27th, foreign pure benzene: FOB Korea rose 2 to 654 US dollars/ton, CFR China rose 1 to 665 US dollars/ton. FOB Rotterdam stable at $720/ton, FOB US Gulf market closed.
Comprehensive forecast: The pure benzene market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range in the short term, and we will wait and see for news on the cost and demand sides. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

On December 1st, the average market price in East China was 309540 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.97% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 308000-311000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 310000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8930 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.
At the beginning of the opening, the price of Shanghai tin rose sharply, with the main contract increasing by nearly 4% at one point, reaching a high of 313700 yuan/ton, which set a new high in three and a half years. However, the price quickly rebounded thereafter, and the increase significantly reduced. By the end of the day, the main contract had finally closed up 1.68%, at 306580 yuan/ton.
On the news front, currently, the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s third ranked tin mining area, has not been directly affected in terms of mining and production activities. However, market concerns about potential supply chain risks have clearly intensified.
During the early trading period, the Shanghai futures market continued its upward trend and continued to rise, with a slight narrowing of the basis spread between near month and far month contracts; After entering the second trading session, the increase in Shanghai Futures has converged. As prices continue to rise, smelters choose to hold prices for sale, which limits market trading volume to a certain extent. In the spot market, positive factors on the news side continue to drive prices up. Today, the overall market followed the trend and conducted a month change operation. Traders maintained a normal shipping rhythm and provided quotes. However, due to the recent upward trend in the market, many downstream users have become cautious and chosen to wait and see due to high prices. Their actual purchasing willingness has been suppressed, and the overall trading atmosphere appears relatively flat.
In terms of follow-up, it is heard that Xiaopai has a premium of around 200-400 yuan/ton for January, Yunzi Tou has a premium of around 400-600 yuan/ton for January, and Yunxi has a premium of around 600-800 yuan/ton for January.

Precious metal prices saw a significant increase in November
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28, 2025, the morning market price of gold spot was 948.59 yuan/gram, an increase of 3.26% from the gold spot market price of 918.62 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (November 1).
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver in the market on November 28, 2025 was 12649.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 10.22% compared to the average price of 11476 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (November 1).
Forecast of Precious Metal Gold and Silver Market in December 2025
In December 2025, both gold and silver are supported by the core factor of the Federal Reserve’s high probability of interest rate cuts, showing an overall bullish trend. However, there is a risk of short-term volatility and correction due to data fluctuations and profit taking. The specific market forecast is as follows:
gold
The overall gold market in December is bullish, with spot gold exceeding $4150 per ounce by the end of November. Driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, the upward trend is likely to continue in December.
Summarize the forecast information of institutions, among which HSBC is the most optimistic, looking at $4600 per ounce; ANZ Bank has a forecast of $4400 per ounce by the end of December, while Bank of America has an annual average price expectation of $4438 per ounce; Goldman Sachs and UBS are relatively stable, with gold prices expected to reach $3700 per ounce and $3500 per ounce in December, respectively. At the same time, the market also has a consensus target price range of $4500 to $4800 for year-end gold prices.
Core supporting factors:
One is the strong expectation of interest rate cuts. The current CME Federal Reserve observation tool shows a probability of 84.9% for a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December. The interest rate cut will push the US dollar to weaken and real interest rates to fall, reducing the cost of holding gold and promoting funds to flow from monetary funds and short-term bonds to gold.
Secondly, the buying support is stable, with dual buying from global central banks and ETFs continuing, while gold supply growth is almost zero, and the supply-demand pattern forms support for prices.
Potential risks and volatility: If the US employment, consumption and other data in December unexpectedly strengthen, it may lead to the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts. At that time, the rebound in real interest rates will suppress gold prices or trigger a short-term correction.
silver
Silver is likely to experience strong fluctuations at a high level in December, while spot silver has already surpassed historical highs in November. It is highly likely that the trend of strong fluctuations at a high level will continue in December. Based on institutional forecasts, the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute believes that it may hit $55 per ounce before the end of the year; HSBC expects to reach $49 per ounce by the end of the year, with a price range of $45-53 per ounce; Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have a conservative attitude, predicting that silver prices will rise to $37/ounce and $38/ounce respectively by the end of the year.

Core supporting factors: On the one hand, the macroeconomic policy dividend continues. With the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate cut, the environment of a weaker US dollar and lower yields is in line with the rising demand for silver, and the market’s expectation of a correction in the gold silver ratio is also driving silver to make up for the rise. On the other hand, the industrial demand foundation is solid, with silver industry demand accounting for nearly 60%. The demand in the three major fields of photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers is strong. Although the unit consumption of silver for photovoltaics has decreased, the growth in installed capacity has driven the overall demand, and global silver has been in short supply for five consecutive years. The supply-demand gap in December will still support prices.
Potential risks and volatility: Silver’s current volatility has significantly increased, and it has shifted from a unilateral trend to a high volatility turnover stage. If the expectation of interest rate cuts declines or if the resilience of the US economy exceeds expectations, it may trigger a rapid adjustment. In addition, the significant increase in silver prices in the early stage, coupled with the demand for some short-term funds to take profits, will also limit the increase in December, making it difficult to achieve a unilateral surge in prices.