Cost support for stable prices in the polyethylene glycol market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 19th, the average quoted price of polyethylene glycol 400 by enterprises was 7550.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last Thursday (March 14th).

 

Recently, the polyethylene glycol market has continued to operate steadily, with no significant price changes. In recent times, there has been strong support for the market in terms of costs, with downstream water reducing agent markets mainly following steadily. Industries such as printing and dyeing and daily chemical products are in high demand for purchases, and market transactions are orderly.

 

Recent quotations for polyethylene glycol 400 products in the East and South China markets (for reference only), with actual transaction negotiations as the main focus:

 

Market/ March 14th March 19th Rise and Fall

East China/ 7700-7900 yuan/ton 7700-7900 yuan/ton 0

South China/ 7800-8000 yuan/ton 7800-8000 yuan/ton 0

Cost side:

 

Upstream ethylene oxide: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on March 18th, the reference price of ethylene oxide was 6900.00, an increase of 1.47% compared to March 1st (6800.00). In mid March, the market price of ethylene oxide increased, providing support for the polyethylene glycol market. Currently, some equipment maintenance and short-term supply side support still exist, and downstream demand is mainly followed up. The support for the polyethylene glycol market may still be stable.

 

Upstream ethylene glycol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of ethylene glycol on March 18th was 4560.00, a decrease of 0.98% compared to March 1st (4605.00), which provides moderate support for the polyethylene glycol market.

 

According to polyethylene glycol analysts from Business Society, short-term cost support is still strong, and downstream enterprises tend to make essential purchases based on their own situation. It is expected that the polyethylene glycol market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the trend of upstream ethylene oxide.

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Boric acid prices stabilize on March 15th

The price of boric acid has been relatively stable recently. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market in March was 7400 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range for domestic boric acid traders is between 6900-7800 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price for different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated).

 

In terms of overseas imported goods, the current foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated at 7500-7800 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 15th, the average market price of imported boric acid was 7643.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the market average price of 7850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.

 

The price of boric acid began to decline from its high point in June 2022, and began to bottom out and fluctuate horizontally in May 2023. Currently, it is still operating in the range of bottom box fluctuations. If there is no positive news, it is expected to be difficult to change in the short term.

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Downstream demand is sluggish, TDI market is weak and declining

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China continued to decline this week. On March 14th, the average market price in East China was 16900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the price of 17400 yuan/ton on March 8th, a decrease of 2.87%, and a month on month decrease of 0.59%.

 

The TDI market is weak, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and there is a small amount of essential procurement in the market. The actual trading atmosphere is light. At the beginning of the week, profit taking orders were sold at low prices to ensure safety, driving the focus of market negotiations downward. Under the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, TDI prices continue to decline, and market demand is insufficient. The TDI market is operating weakly.

 

The upstream toluene market remained stable with a downward trend. On March 14th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 7250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from the price of 7270 yuan/ton on March 8th. The narrow fluctuations in international crude oil prices provide some support for the cost of toluene. Downstream production of xylene is temporarily stable, with sufficient support for toluene’s demand. At the same time, the recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene is weak. In addition, with the continued increase in toluene port inventory, supply pressure has increased, and the price of toluene has stabilized and declined.

 

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that domestic TDI prices continue to decline, and suppliers are mainly wait-and-see in the short term. Under the influence of psychological factors, there may be a willingness to raise prices in the future market. Downstream follow-up is needed, and market trading is limited. There is a game of supply and demand on the market, and it is expected that the TDI market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the later stage. Specific information on major manufacturers will be released.

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Long and short entangle, PC narrow range fluculates

Price trend

 

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the domestic PC market in the first half of March experienced a narrow range of fluctuations and consolidation, with spot prices of various brands fluctuating. As of March 13th, the benchmark price for the mixed PC of Shengyishe was around 16100 yuan/ton, with a 0% increase or decrease compared to the beginning of the month.

 

Cause analysis

 

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above figure that bisphenol A has been declining continuously in China recently. Recently, most mainstream regions of the secondary raw materials have remained stable, with only a slight increase in the mainstream regions of East China. The trading heat is still acceptable, and there is still support for bisphenol A. Downstream enterprises have a slow consumption rate, and the pressure on traders remains unabated. The actual transaction volume is limited. It is expected that the bisphenol A market will operate in a weak and volatile manner in the future, with weak support for the PC cost side.

 

In terms of supply: In the first half of March, the overall operating rate of PC in China was relatively high, and the current industry average operating rate is around 80%. Due to the decline in raw material prices, PC companies have increased their profit margins, actively returned production capacity, and increased supply. However, there are maintenance reports for some devices in the future, smoothing out the negative impact on the supply side.

 

In terms of demand: Recently, PC consumption has been slowly recovering from the previous stage, with the main logic leaning towards digesting inventory. Downstream enterprises are lagging behind in resuming work, and there is poor demand for on-site stocking. In addition, buyers have some resistance to PC sources with rising prices, and the demand side generally supports spot prices.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

In the first half of March, the PC market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations and consolidation. The upstream bisphenol A market has fallen sharply, providing poor support for PC costs. The domestic polymerization plant maintains a high load, and the market has abundant spot supply, increasing supply pressure. The development speed on the demand side is still slow, and PC consumption is restricted. It is expected that the PC market will continue to experience narrow fluctuations in the future.

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The toluene market has seen a slight upward trend and may experience range fluctuations in the future

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has seen a slight upward trend in recent days (3.1-3.12). On March 12th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7270 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% from 7210 yuan/ton on March 1st.

 

International crude oil prices fluctuate narrowly, with toluene receiving some support

 

Recently (3.1-3.12), on the one hand, the geopolitical situation has been relatively calm, but market concerns about demand still exist; On the other hand, OPEC+agreed earlier this month to extend its voluntary production reduction until the second quarter, and the recent narrow fluctuations in the international crude oil market still provide some support for the cost of toluene. As of March 11th, WTI04 contract settlement is $77.93 per barrel; Brent 05 contract settlement is $82.21 per barrel. The high consolidation of Asian toluene prices provides some support for the domestic market. As of March 11th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 893-895 US dollars per ton.

 

Starting production of xylene temporarily stabilizes toluene and obtains necessary support

 

The domestic supply of xylene is stable, and the domestic PX operating rate is maintained at over 80%. The operation of the Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, but there are still some units undergoing maintenance, and there is sufficient spot supply. This week, the international crude oil price range fluctuated, and PX external prices have decreased. As of the 7th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 977-979 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1002-1004 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

 

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

 

After the holiday, the recovery of the domestic mixed blending market was slow, and the demand for mixed xylene mixed blending weakened. As of March 7th, the construction of refineries nationwide was around 7.3.

 

Continuous increase in toluene port inventory and increased supply pressure

 

Domestic toluene port inventories have continued to remain at high levels. As of March 8th, toluene inventories in East China were 90000 tons, while those in South China were 19000 tons. There is still a slight increase compared to the previous period, and the pressure on toluene supply remains. The domestic production of toluene is stable, with a rate of around 740% as of March 11th.

 

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil is experiencing narrow fluctuations, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port is high, and the pressure on the supply side of toluene remains. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will mainly experience fluctuations in the later period.

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