There has been no significant improvement in the fundamentals this week, but downstream users have followed up with low-priced restocking to stimulate suppliers to slightly increase their quotes. As of November 7th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8050-8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 50-100 yuan/ton compared to last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 7900-8000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Loose supply:
Supply remains loose during the cycle, with some companies experiencing an increase in inventory. However, in the short term, downstream users are following up to replenish factory inventory, which is still controllable and stimulates suppliers to slightly increase their quotes. According to statistics, as of November 6th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories has reached 77.99%, with a weekly output of about 88900 tons, which is 0.16 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 52600 tons, which is+0.18 million tons compared to last week.
Decreased demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has decreased, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 71.6%, a decrease of -0.5% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 73.39%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 53.28%, which was -0.65% compared to last week, indicating a decrease in overall demand for raw materials.
Cost reduction:
This week, the upstream propylene price continued to decline, and the cost support for acrylonitrile weakened. As of November 7th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6000-6050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120-150 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6150-6170 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price of acrylonitrile slightly increased, and the production loss situation significantly improved this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8146 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -2.75%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -105 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 351 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the fundamentals are still weak, the overall supply is loose, and downstream buying is once again becoming cautious. The market continues to lack upward momentum. Next, we need to pay attention to the trend of the device and wait for further favorable developments.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on November 6th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was referenced to 6300 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 350 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79%.
Weak fundamentals: In the first week of November, the focus of the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province was narrowly lowered
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week of November (11.1-11.6), the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China, experienced a narrow decline. During the week, the focus of cyclohexanone negotiations continued to shift towards the low-end market. Some factories in Shandong have lowered their cyclohexanone shipment prices by 50 yuan/ton. As of November 6th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong is around 6250-6350 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
In terms of supply and demand: Entering November, the overall supply-demand contradiction in the cyclohexanone market in Shandong still exists, with poor demand transmission and average demand realization. The overall supply side is loose, and the supply and demand transmission is slow, providing insufficient market support and lacking positive guidance.
Cost wise: The market for pure benzene on the raw material side is fluctuating, providing unstable cost support for cyclohexanone. As of November 6th, according to data from Shengyi Society, the reference price of pure benzene on November 6th was 5218.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.9% compared to November 1st (5172 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in Shandong cyclohexanone market is light, and there is a certain bearish sentiment in the market. Downstream demand is cautious. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly be weak and stable, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be monitored.

According to the analysis from the Business Society Price Monitoring System, on November 5, the domestic market price of metallurgical silicon #441 was 9,690 yuan per ton, marking a 10 yuan per ton increase compared to October 31 (market price of metallurgical silicon #441 at 9,680 yuan per ton), with a growth rate of 0.10%.
In early November, the domestic market for 441# metallurgical silicon saw a narrow overall upward trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in early November, the domestic metal silicon spot market experienced minimal overall fluctuations, with minor adjustments for certain grades. Notably, the market for Grade 441# metal silicon showed a slight upward trend, with prices in the Huangpu Port area rising by approximately 50 RMB/ton, while other regions remained relatively stable. As of November 5, the reference price for Grade 441# metal silicon in East China ranged between 9,600-9,700 RMB/ton, while Grade 553# (non-ventilated) was quoted at 9,200-9,400 RMB/ton, and Grade 553# (ventilated) at 9,400-9,500 RMB/ton.
Production and Supply Status: In October, domestic metallurgical silicon production reached approximately 452,200 tons, an increase of 31,400 tons month-on-month, reflecting a growth rate of about 7.5%, but a decrease of 17,600 tons year-on-year, representing a decline of 4%. From January to October 2025, cumulative industrial silicon production totaled 3.4699 million tons, down 16.6% year-on-year. Entering November, changes in metallurgical silicon supply primarily occurred in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, with expectations that operating rates in this area will continue to decline. The overall production decline in the Sichuan-Yunnan region may exceed 50%.
Demand side: Although the market price of silicon metal has seen a slight increase, the overall procurement enthusiasm among downstream industries remains subdued without a clear unified boost. In some regions, downstream inquiries still exhibit price pressure. The southern areas, supported by reduced production activity, show a certain reluctance to sell, while the negotiation atmosphere has improved in certain regions.
Post-market analysis
Currently, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market remains mild, with downstream buyers exercising cautious procurement based on rigid demand. According to a metalsilicon data analyst from Business Society, the market is expected to primarily experience range-bound adjustments in the short term. Specific trends will require closer attention to supply-demand dynamics.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on November 4th, the continuous rise of lithium carbonate came to a halt. The benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate trading society was 80200 yuan/ton, and the benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading society was 78433 yuan/ton, ending the previous upward trend of over 10% from 73016 yuan/ton (October 16th) to 80700 yuan/ton (November 3rd).
Core callback: Supply side rumors disrupt market confidence
The direct reason for this price correction is the market news that the resumption of production of Ningde Times’ Jianxiawo project is ahead of schedule. Although the project has not made any substantial progress publicly, its expected resumption of production directly impacts the market’s judgment of the supply pattern. The current monthly destocking scale of lithium carbonate market is 8000-10000 tons. If the project resumes production ahead of schedule, the newly added capacity may reverse the short-term destocking trend and trigger a price correction.
Fundamental core support: explosive demand for energy storage
In October, the total output of power, energy storage, and consumer batteries in the Chinese market reached 186 GWh, a month on month increase of 22.4% and a year-on-year increase of 45.3%. At present, the top battery companies are basically in full production, and some companies’ orders have even been scheduled until early next year. Both upstream and downstream industries are operating at full capacity. In November, it is expected that downstream production will continue to maintain month on month growth, and the off-season will exceed expectations to support the sustained improvement of fundamentals.
The continuous destocking trend of inventory continues
The industry has been destocking for 11 consecutive weeks, with a total inventory reduction of approximately 16000 tons. As of the week of October 30th, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was about 127000 tons, a decrease of over 3000 tons compared to the previous week, and the destocking rate further accelerated. Among them, the inventory of smelters decreased to 32000 tons, downstream inventory decreased to 53000 tons, and traders and other inventory decreased to 42000 tons.
The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that the current “weak expectations” on the supply side of lithium carbonate and the “strong reality” on the fundamentals form a hedge. It is expected that there will be limited changes in the supply and demand relationship in November, and the overall situation will show a wide range of fluctuations. Specific attention still needs to be paid to project resumption information and market supply and demand changes.

In October, domestic liquid ammonia did not continue the downward trend of the previous two months, and the market gradually stabilized. The market first fell and then rose, and by the end of the month, the market price had basically returned to the level at the beginning of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province in October was 0.44%. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2200-2270 yuan/ton.
The production schedule of the device does not decrease, and the market inventory is still high
From a supply side perspective, the supply-demand structure still leans towards surplus. As we enter October, the operating rate remains at a medium high level, with few maintenance manufacturers and no reduction in production output. The inventory pressure of enterprises is high, and in order to alleviate the pressure, factory prices have fallen more than they have risen. Secondly, the impact of external sources of goods has led to an increase in import volume, while low-priced foreign sources have impacted the domestic market. Supply is in an oversupply situation. Although some manufacturers experienced short-term malfunctions and reduced production after mid month, resulting in a slight rebound in enterprise quotations, at the end of the month, with some devices resuming operation, the upward trend did not continue. Some manufacturers in Shandong experienced a slight price correction, and the market still did not shake off the weak trend. Overall, there has been little change in ammonia prices during the month, and the adjustment space continues to narrow. On the demand side, the peak season for agricultural demand is not strong, and downstream industries such as urea and compound fertilizers lack support. Industrial demand remains rigid and fluctuates little. Downstream weakness makes it difficult for the market to improve.
The cooling of the industrial chain is mainly due to the weakness of the upstream and downstream
From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain chart, upstream natural gas has seen a significant increase, with a monthly decline of 12.82%, which has brought more cost pressure to gas ammonia companies. Especially in the downstream sector, it is still generally cold, with more declines and less gains. Especially urea is still lukewarm, according to monitoring, urea fell by 0.85% in October. This is mainly reflected in weak downstream demand, low season in agriculture, and the current increase in compound fertilizer production not meeting market expectations. The terminal production in the industrial demand field is also showing a downward trend. The market is generally dominated by rigid demand, and the demand side is restricting the ammonia market from getting out of the slump.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that from a supply side perspective, there will be little change in the future market supply and demand pattern, and the market will lean towards supply-demand balance. The devices will start and stop, and the impact will tend to weaken. The mentality of enterprises to raise prices may be reflected, and the downward space in the later stage may be compressed. The supply and demand pressure will continue to ease in November.
From the demand side, in the short term, demand remains stable, and expectations may be weak in the later period. On the one hand, the concentrated procurement during the agricultural peak season is scattered, and the market lacks speculative sentiment, resulting in light trading. In addition, industrial demand remains dominated by rigid demand, and overall, downstream liquid ammonia may continue to drag down its price recovery in the later stage.
Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to maintain a range of fluctuations in the short term, with prices remaining at a low level. In the later stage of supply and demand competition, liquid ammonia may still be difficult to break free from the weak oscillation pattern. We need to pay attention to the manufacturer’s equipment start-up news in the later stage.