On December 1st, the average market price in East China was 309540 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.97% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 308000-311000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 310000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8930 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.
At the beginning of the opening, the price of Shanghai tin rose sharply, with the main contract increasing by nearly 4% at one point, reaching a high of 313700 yuan/ton, which set a new high in three and a half years. However, the price quickly rebounded thereafter, and the increase significantly reduced. By the end of the day, the main contract had finally closed up 1.68%, at 306580 yuan/ton.
On the news front, currently, the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s third ranked tin mining area, has not been directly affected in terms of mining and production activities. However, market concerns about potential supply chain risks have clearly intensified.
During the early trading period, the Shanghai futures market continued its upward trend and continued to rise, with a slight narrowing of the basis spread between near month and far month contracts; After entering the second trading session, the increase in Shanghai Futures has converged. As prices continue to rise, smelters choose to hold prices for sale, which limits market trading volume to a certain extent. In the spot market, positive factors on the news side continue to drive prices up. Today, the overall market followed the trend and conducted a month change operation. Traders maintained a normal shipping rhythm and provided quotes. However, due to the recent upward trend in the market, many downstream users have become cautious and chosen to wait and see due to high prices. Their actual purchasing willingness has been suppressed, and the overall trading atmosphere appears relatively flat.
In terms of follow-up, it is heard that Xiaopai has a premium of around 200-400 yuan/ton for January, Yunzi Tou has a premium of around 400-600 yuan/ton for January, and Yunxi has a premium of around 600-800 yuan/ton for January.

Precious metal prices saw a significant increase in November
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28, 2025, the morning market price of gold spot was 948.59 yuan/gram, an increase of 3.26% from the gold spot market price of 918.62 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (November 1).
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver in the market on November 28, 2025 was 12649.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 10.22% compared to the average price of 11476 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (November 1).
Forecast of Precious Metal Gold and Silver Market in December 2025
In December 2025, both gold and silver are supported by the core factor of the Federal Reserve’s high probability of interest rate cuts, showing an overall bullish trend. However, there is a risk of short-term volatility and correction due to data fluctuations and profit taking. The specific market forecast is as follows:
gold
The overall gold market in December is bullish, with spot gold exceeding $4150 per ounce by the end of November. Driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, the upward trend is likely to continue in December.
Summarize the forecast information of institutions, among which HSBC is the most optimistic, looking at $4600 per ounce; ANZ Bank has a forecast of $4400 per ounce by the end of December, while Bank of America has an annual average price expectation of $4438 per ounce; Goldman Sachs and UBS are relatively stable, with gold prices expected to reach $3700 per ounce and $3500 per ounce in December, respectively. At the same time, the market also has a consensus target price range of $4500 to $4800 for year-end gold prices.
Core supporting factors:
One is the strong expectation of interest rate cuts. The current CME Federal Reserve observation tool shows a probability of 84.9% for a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December. The interest rate cut will push the US dollar to weaken and real interest rates to fall, reducing the cost of holding gold and promoting funds to flow from monetary funds and short-term bonds to gold.
Secondly, the buying support is stable, with dual buying from global central banks and ETFs continuing, while gold supply growth is almost zero, and the supply-demand pattern forms support for prices.
Potential risks and volatility: If the US employment, consumption and other data in December unexpectedly strengthen, it may lead to the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts. At that time, the rebound in real interest rates will suppress gold prices or trigger a short-term correction.
silver
Silver is likely to experience strong fluctuations at a high level in December, while spot silver has already surpassed historical highs in November. It is highly likely that the trend of strong fluctuations at a high level will continue in December. Based on institutional forecasts, the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute believes that it may hit $55 per ounce before the end of the year; HSBC expects to reach $49 per ounce by the end of the year, with a price range of $45-53 per ounce; Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have a conservative attitude, predicting that silver prices will rise to $37/ounce and $38/ounce respectively by the end of the year.

Core supporting factors: On the one hand, the macroeconomic policy dividend continues. With the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate cut, the environment of a weaker US dollar and lower yields is in line with the rising demand for silver, and the market’s expectation of a correction in the gold silver ratio is also driving silver to make up for the rise. On the other hand, the industrial demand foundation is solid, with silver industry demand accounting for nearly 60%. The demand in the three major fields of photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers is strong. Although the unit consumption of silver for photovoltaics has decreased, the growth in installed capacity has driven the overall demand, and global silver has been in short supply for five consecutive years. The supply-demand gap in December will still support prices.
Potential risks and volatility: Silver’s current volatility has significantly increased, and it has shifted from a unilateral trend to a high volatility turnover stage. If the expectation of interest rate cuts declines or if the resilience of the US economy exceeds expectations, it may trigger a rapid adjustment. In addition, the significant increase in silver prices in the early stage, coupled with the demand for some short-term funds to take profits, will also limit the increase in December, making it difficult to achieve a unilateral surge in prices.

In November, the domestic electrolytic nickel market struggled to move forward amidst fluctuating macro sentiment and solid fundamentals. The spot price once fell to a five-year low. Although it experienced a oversold rebound in the latter half of the year, the two mountains of “high inventory” and “weak demand” firmly suppressed the upward space of the price.
Price trend: under pressure, bottoming out, weak oscillation
As of November 27th, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 119366 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 2.35% during the month. The electrolytic nickel market has experienced a roller coaster ride this month, putting overall pressure on the market.
·From early to mid month: Continuous bearish trend. Under the triple pressure of a strong US dollar, oversupply, and weak downstream demand, the center of gravity of nickel prices continues to shift downwards, reaching a new low in nearly five years.
·Late period: oversold rebound. With the Federal Reserve releasing a “dovish” signal, market expectations of interest rate cuts are heating up, coupled with low prices stimulating some inventory replenishment behavior, nickel prices are experiencing a technical rebound.
Macro: long and short intertwined, emotions dominate short-term fluctuations
Negative pressure: The strong breakthrough of the US dollar index above the 100 mark has caused widespread suppression of metals priced in US dollars, which is an important external factor that has put pressure on prices this month.
Positive boost: In the latter half of the year, the Federal Reserve’s attitude turned dovish and the easing signal of Sino US trade injected confidence into the market, becoming a direct catalyst for this round of rebound.
Supply side: The overall surplus pattern is stable, and the expectations of the mining side are difficult to solve
Inventory pressure: LME and Shanghai Stock Exchange inventories continue to accumulate, both rising to high levels for the year. As of November 27th, LME nickel inventory increased by 3348 tons to 255450 tons during the month, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 2160 tons to 33548 tons. The extremely high global explicit inventory is the most direct and heavy factor in suppressing nickel prices.
The import of raw materials has contracted month on month, but the total supply is abundant: in October 2025, the import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrate in China was 4.6828 million tons, which decreased by 23.50% month on month, but still increased by 11.82% year-on-year. The month on month decline is mainly affected by the seasonal factor of the rainy season in the Philippines, which is a normal fluctuation. A year-on-year positive growth indicates that the overall supply of raw materials is still abundant.
Mining supply is facing long-term tightening expectations: the rainy season in the Philippines has arrived, and the mining and shipping volume of mainstream mining areas is seasonally declining. Indonesia plans to lower its nickel ore production target for 2026 and may control investment in new smelters, which could slow down global nickel supply growth in the long run. But the key is that these policies have little impact on changing the current short-term surplus situation.
Demand side: Both traditional and emerging engines stall
Weak demand for stainless steel: social inventory of stainless steel has accumulated, and some manufacturers have pushed forward maintenance and production reduction plans. On November 27th, the spot price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was reported at 12540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.79% for the month. The fluctuation of the stainless steel industry has directly weakened the demand for upstream primary nickel (especially nickel iron) and transmitted it to electrolytic nickel through the industrial chain.

The support for the new energy sector has slowed down: the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has increased, continuously squeezing the market for low and medium nickel ternary materials. The addition of overseas tariff barriers restricts the export of precursor materials, and the demand growth momentum for nickel in the new energy sector is insufficient. Despite overall compression, ternary battery technology itself is accelerating towards high nickel direction, which brings new growth points for the quality and structure of nickel used in batteries in the future. However, it is difficult to reverse the weak demand in the short term. ‌‌
Market forecast: Limited rebound space
Short term nickel prices are expected to maintain a ‘low volatility’ pattern. Any rebound driven by macro sentiment will face ruthl

ess tests of high inventory and weak demand, with extremely limited room for rebound.

1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices fluctuated widely in a “W” shape in November. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 87595 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 86715 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 17.36%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices were mostly higher than futures prices in November. The main contract is the expected price in two months, and the expected future price of copper is mainly weaker than the overall price.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly increased in November. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 156575 tons, up 17.2% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, on November 21st, New York Fed’s Williams made dovish remarks, with the market’s probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising sharply from about 40% at the beginning of the month to 82.9%. The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to a weakening of the US dollar, boosting copper prices denominated in US dollars.
Supply side: The production of major copper mines worldwide, such as Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, continues to be disrupted. Copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RC) are at a historical low, and some smelters are facing losses. China has suspended the construction of 2 million tons of new smelting capacity.
Downstream: Traditional demand is weak: copper demand in fields such as construction, real estate, and home appliances is sluggish. Strong emerging demand: copper consumption in areas such as power infrastructure, new energy vehicles, and AI data centers has increased, forming an effective hedge.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have fluctuated widely in December over the past five years, with no significant fluctuations.
In summary, the International Copper Research Group (ICSG) predicts that the global copper supply and demand gap will widen from 150000 tons in 2025 to 300000 tons in 2026. Some institutions predict that by 2026, LME copper prices may reach 13000 US dollars per ton, and Shanghai copper prices may exceed 100000 yuan per ton. The future policy path of the Federal Reserve still remains uncertain. The sustained high copper prices will exacerbate the cost pressure on downstream enterprises. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate widely in December.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda is 1205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.16% compared to the same period last year. On November 24th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 80.06, a decrease of 0.17 points from yesterday, setting a new historical low for the cycle, and a decrease of 66.05% from the highest point of 235.84 points on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1150-1250 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1224 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.16% compared to the same period last year, and downstream purchases are mostly made on demand.
Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been strong. However, downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, and demand enthusiasm for baking soda is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.