The operating trend of tin prices in 2025
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of 1 # tin ingots in East China was 245960 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 332710 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price has increased by 35.27% throughout the year.
In 2025, tin prices showed an overall N-shaped trend, fluctuating and rising in the first quarter. By March 22, they rose to around 280000 yuan and began a rapid correction. On April 15, they fell below the 260000 yuan mark, rebounded from the bottom, and fluctuated upwards. At the end of the year, they broke through 300000 yuan and continued to rise. The price range for the whole year is between 242000 and 332000, and the market presents a pattern of “supply constrained, demand driven” throughout the year.
1、 Review of Factors Influencing Tin Prices in 2025
1. Supply side: Comprehensive tension and continuous disturbance
Production stoppage in Wa State, Myanmar: The resumption of production has been continuously delayed since the ban on mining in 2023, resulting in a significant decrease in China’s tin ore imports.
Geopolitical conflict: The armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo led to the temporary suspension of production in major mining areas in Africa.
Cost increase: The shortage of mineral resources has caused smelting and processing fees to fall to a nearly six-year low, squeezing profits and leading to some smelters reducing production
2. Demand side: differentiation of new and old driving forces
Traditional demand is weak: orders in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and home appliances are light, with rigid procurement being the main focus.
Emerging demand provides long-term story: global semiconductor sales growth, high growth rate of AI servers, and the development of photovoltaics and new energy vehicles provide long-term support for tin demand
3. Inventory and Macro: Low Inventory and Macro Resonance
Global inventory is low: The inventory levels of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME are at historically low levels, exacerbating supply vulnerability.
Macro sentiment boost: By the end of November 2025, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates resonated with concerns about the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, driving Shanghai tin prices to a three-and-a-half-year high
2、 Forecast of Tin Price Trend in 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, the market consensus is that the tight supply situation will ease to some extent, but the supply-demand gap and low inventory will still support prices at historical highs, and the overall trend is expected to be “high volatility”.
2026 Supply Recovery Forecast
1. Global tin mine capacity increase and expansion after 2026
It is expected that the total new and expanded production capacity of global tin mines will increase by about 24000 tons by 2026. The overseas increment mainly comes from the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with an estimated output of 16500 tons. Other new and expanded production capacity is expected to increase by 4400 tons; The production capacity of domestic Yinman Mining has climbed, and the Villasto project, expected to start production in August, is expected to increase by a total of 3000 tons. Overall, the global increase in tin ore production is expected to be around 24000 tons by 2026, with the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar being the main source of this increase.
2. The resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate
According to public reports, the southwest monsoon will exit Myanmar in mid October 2025, marking the end of the rainy season and the arrival of early winter. From the significant increase in customs declaration data at Menglian Port in November, it can be seen that the previous rainy season and equipment issues have been basically resolved, and the resumption of production is expected to accelerate. It is expected to increase production by 15000 metal tons year-on-year in 2026.
3. Supply situation of mining terminals in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria
2026 demand resilience
Support: The high-end development of semiconductors with AI computing power as the core and the green transformation of energy (photovoltaics, new energy vehicles) are clear medium – and long-term demand growth points. Tin demand is expected to continue to rise.
Pressure: In the first quarter of 2026, the traditional consumer sector will enter the off-season. Global smartphone shipments may slightly decrease, photovoltaic module production may decrease month on month, and high tin prices have also suppressed downstream willingness to replenish inventory.
Inventory and cost constitute bottom support: Global explicit inventory is expected to remain low. At the same time, the declining grade of global tin ore resources and rising exploration costs have provided a solid bottom for tin prices from the long-term cost perspective.
Overall, the tin price in 2026 will be in a game between “supply recovery” and “demand resilience/disturbance risk”. By 2026, the global tin market supply and demand pattern may show a gap, and the core focus of the current market is on the potential disruptive factors of overseas mining supply and the verification of actual demand. In this context, the expected operating range of the Shanghai Tin Index is roughly between 260000 yuan/ton and 390000 yuan/ton.
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