Copper prices fluctuated widely in February

1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices fluctuated widely in February. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 104496.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 102136.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 2.26% and a year-on-year increase of 32.91%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper futures prices were higher than spot prices in February, with the main contract being the expected price two months later. It is expected that copper prices will be relatively weak in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly in February. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 25370 tons, up 45.24% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, at the beginning of the month, the market’s expectations for loose global liquidity cooled down, coupled with concentrated profit taking in the early stages. The main copper contract in Shanghai fell more than 9% on February 3, hitting a temporary low. Subsequently, market sentiment gradually improved, but the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March was still considered low by the market, and the volatility of the US dollar index suppressed copper prices.
Supply side: The global copper concentrate is expected to have a shortage of 200000 tons, mainly due to aging mines, insufficient capital expenditures, and production disruptions. The global refined copper production growth rate is expected to drop to 1.1% in 2026, and the market may fall into a substantial shortage. In January 2026, China’s electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a month on month increase of only 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, but the growth rate has significantly slowed down. The industry generally expects that global refineries will face significant pressure to reduce production in 2026, especially small and medium-sized smelters with lower long-term order ratios may be the first to reduce production.
Downstream: The seasonal decline in downstream operating rates before and after the Spring Festival. The operating rate of cable companies for the week of February 12th was 56.01%, a decrease of 4.14 percentage points compared to the previous week; The year-on-year production of air conditioning from February to April was -31.6%, -6.5%, and+4.0% respectively, indicating weak demand in the traditional sector. However, the new energy sector continues to bring incremental consumption, and the construction of AI data centers, global power grid renovation, and energy facility reconstruction constitute structural demand support.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper has risen more than fallen in March.
In summary, in the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain range volatility. The high inventory pressure and slow seasonal resumption of downstream work will suppress the upward space of prices, but the shortage of mining and the expectation of smelting production reduction provide bottom support. In the medium to long term, with the recovery of domestic consumption and the depletion of global inventory, copper prices are expected to regain their upward trend.