1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 145933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 14.86%.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 5 times in the past 12 weeks, with a strong rebound in nickel prices recently.
LME nickel inventory
Macroscopically, the initial value of the US manufacturing PMI in April directly hit 54.0, far exceeding expectations and setting a new high in nearly four years. The US economy is so hot that there is no need for the Federal Reserve to urgently cut interest rates. The employment data is also very hard, with only a slight increase in the number of initial jobless claims. The US dollar index rebounded in response, approaching the 99 level, and the US stock market closed down across the board.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in March was 37337 tons, an increase of 14.53% month on month and 1.83% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for April is 38830 tons, an increase of 4.00% month on month and 6.53% year-on-year.
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The consumption of alloys is gradually recovering, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. The weak performance of stainless steel highlights the mentality of steel mills to suppress raw material prices; The high price of MHP provides support for the cost of nickel sulfate, but there is no significant increase in downstream ternary precursor orders, with nickel sulfate prices mainly fluctuating.
News: Eramet released its first quarter financial report for 2026, stating that Weda Bay Nickel Mine is expected to exhaust its annual quota by mid May due to the reduction of its initial RKAB quota to 12 million wet tons (external sales cap of 9 million wet tons) in 2026. Subsequently, the mine will enter a maintenance state and is applying for an increase in quota to strengthen market expectations of tight raw materials. After the recent implementation of the revised HPM policy in Indonesia, the pricing of new contracts continues to play a game, and the market is exploring the FOB and CIF dual track models, making it difficult to reach a unified premium consensus in the short term. In addition, due to the fluctuation of conflict expectations, sulfur supply has been hindered, MHP production costs have significantly increased, and bottom support has been strengthened.
In summary, there is an expectation of reduced production of intermediate products on the raw material side, but downstream demand for ternary products has significantly fallen, and nickel sulfate prices have fluctuated strongly. The demand side stainless steel is showing signs of fatigue, but with the expansion of stainless steel profits, it is expected that steel mills will alleviate their mentality of price suppression towards nickel iron; Affected by policies and structural crowding out of iron and lithium, there has been no significant increase in orders for ternary precursor and positive electrode material enterprises, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. In terms of inventory, there has been a moderate reduction in overseas inventory recently, while domestic inventory continues to be stockpiled. The price comparison between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed. Overall, the bottom of costs has risen under the multiple supports of raw materials, and the expectation of reduced production of intermediate products has also driven sentiment. However, the current supply pressure of refined nickel is compounded by insufficient inventory digestion. It is expected that nickel prices will mainly experience strong fluctuations.
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