Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been fluctuating and spot prices have declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 2nd, the average price of ABS sample products was 10300 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.83% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the week.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the high load situation in the ABS industry has continued this week, with overall fewer enterprise inspections. The weekend operating rate has been narrowed down to about 83%. The on-site spot supply continues to be abundant, with high pressure on the supply side. However, the overall inventory has been depleted due to the replenishment at the end of last month, but there is still limited support for the spot market, and manufacturers continue to lower their factory prices.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials this week was two drops and one rise. The raw material acrylonitrile market continued to decline. The raw material propylene market is weak, and the cost side is declining; Downstream demand is weak and transaction volume has decreased, resulting in poor support for ABS.

The domestic butadiene market price fell deeply this week. During the week, some maintenance equipment resumed and production increased. At the same time, imported cargo gradually arrived at the port, putting pressure on the market supply side. Some downstream industries saw a decrease in demand, which significantly dragged down the inventory pressure of butadiene suppliers. With the continuous decline of Sinopec prices, the domestic butadiene market rapidly declined.

It can be seen from the figure below that the price of styrene market stopped falling and rebounded this week. The advantage comes from the tight supply pattern of balance, but the weak international oil prices continue, with poor cost support. The trading volume in the Asian styrene US dollar market is light, and downstream demand remains strong. It is expected that the short-term increase in the styrene market may be limited.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average stocking enthusiasm, and the operating rate is generally at the off-season level. The manufacturer has a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with some restocking and stocking operations at the end of last month, but overall demand improvement is limited.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the upstream three materials of ABS fell and rose, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has started a high-level fine adjustment, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Although the pressure on on-site inventory has decreased, the demand side support is limited, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. This month, ABS has multiple enterprise maintenance plans and is expected to reduce the decline in ABS.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China continued to decline in the second half of May. As of May 31st, the price was 16200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3666.67 yuan/ton compared to May 16th, which was 19866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.46%.

The domestic TDI market continued to fall, mainly due to the influence of mentality. In the second half of the month, the news of the release of the device capacity was released, the trade market atmosphere was bearish, and the price of the holder was lowered to stimulate shipment. However, the downstream had strong resistance to the high price, plus the influence of the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the weak situation of the TDI market continued. Later, the device was successfully started, and the market sentiment was bearish. Under the supply and demand game, the focus of TDI transactions continued to move downward.

The upstream toluene market is consolidating and operating. As of May 31, the domestic average price of toluene was around 7130.00 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.13% compared to the price of 7050.00 yuan/ton on May 16. The international crude oil range has risen, with positive upstream support. The toluene market has stopped falling and rebounded, but downstream demand is average. Follow up on demand, and market transactions are limited. The toluene market has slightly increased.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from the business agency believe that the supplier’s production capacity has increased, downstream demand continues to be weak, the market atmosphere is bearish, and the confidence of the holders is insufficient. The market is negotiating low prices for shipment, and there is a lack of positive support in the market. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will consolidate at a low level, and specific attention will be paid to the supplier’s interest consumption guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic spandex market continued to decline in May, with an average price of 33375 yuan/ton in the 40D market as of May 30th, a decrease of 4.98% compared to the beginning of the month. The spandex market is operating in a weak situation, with sufficient supply from factories and many shipments with profit margins. The cost side support is average, while the demand side follows slowly.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)

Region/ 20D/ 30D/ 40D

Henan/ 36000./35000./32000

Fujian/ 36500./34500./32500

Zhejiang/ 38000./37000./34000

Jiangsu/ 38000./36000./35000

The willingness of downstream weaving factories to stock raw materials is not strong. With the arrival of the hot summer season, textile and clothing consumption is in the off-season stage, and terminal orders are insufficient. Sales of most products in places such as Wujiang and Changxing in Zhejiang have significantly decreased compared to the previous period. The start-up rate has also further weakened, with the Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving start-up rate around 60%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that there is currently insufficient follow-up on the demand side, and downstream textile companies are more cautious in covering their positions. The inventory pressure of spandex manufacturers is increasing, and the current support for raw materials PTMEG and pure MDI is average. It is expected that the spandex market will continue to fluctuate and decline in June.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of coking coal is temporarily stable. The average price of coking coal in the current market is 1701.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.4% compared to the same period last year. On May 28th, the energy index stood at 933 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 1561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 82.58% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of production location, the coal mine has maintained normal operation, and sales have improved compared to the previous period. Some enterprises have improved in inventory reduction, but downstream enterprises mostly maintain low inventory. The downstream coke market has seen relatively stable coke production, with enterprises actively shipping. However, steel mills have low profits and are below the profit and loss line, which still puts pressure on coke. They mainly purchase according to demand. It is expected that the price of coke will be weak in the short term.

According to the coking coal analyst of Business Society, coking coal maintains normal production, but the demand for coking coal in downstream coke is still mainly based on on-demand procurement. Currently, the profit of coking enterprises has reached a loss state. Overall, the price of coking coal is mainly weak, and the specific situation depends on the demand in downstream markets.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and increased in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of plasticizer DOP products fell first and then rose in May, and the prices of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and consolidated. As of May 26th, the price of DOP was 9925.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.23% compared to the price of 9709.17 yuan/ton on May 1st; Compared to May 6th, the price dropped by 7.67% to 10750 yuan/ton. In May, the price of plasticizer DOP first rose and then fell. After the May holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP briefly rose and then quickly fell back. Afterwards, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and consolidated, with limited support for the rise of plasticizers.

Device shutdown news, driving up the price of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, during the May Day holiday, the sudden shutdown of isooctanol devices drove up the price of isooctanol rapidly. On May 8th, the price of isooctanol was 10183.33 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 11.90% compared to 9100 yuan/ton on May 1st; DOP production enterprises have octanol contracts to be executed, and there is also an appropriate amount of pre holiday stock of raw materials. Therefore, in the face of a sharp rise in the market, downstream customers have a low intention to buy at a high level, and there are gradually news of production stoppages. Insufficient demand has led to a rapid decline in the price of isooctanol. On May 12, the price of isooctanol was 9566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.06% compared to May 8, when the price of isooctanol was 10183.33 yuan/ton; Afterwards, the supply and demand of isooctanol were relatively balanced, and the price of isooctanol stabilized at a high level. As of May 26, the price of isooctanol was 9690 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.48% compared to 9100 yuan/ton on May 1. In May, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, but the current price is still difficult to attract the buying sentiment of end users, so market transactions are still weak. The support for the cost increase of plasticizer products is limited, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and stabilizes.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and rebounded

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of May 26th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.04% compared to the price of 8225 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. In the middle of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded, and exports increased. The price of Naifa phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rose, and the market of phthalic anhydride rebounded and adjusted. The cost support for plasticizers still exists.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in May, the prices of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, while the prices of phthalic anhydride rebounded. There is still support for the cost increase of plasticizer products DOP, and the prices of plasticizer products DOP fluctuated and consolidated. In the future, the supply of isooctanol has basically returned to normal, with insufficient support for the increase in raw material costs of plasticizers. The demand for plasticizers remains weak, with stable costs and weak demand. The market for plasticizers is bearish, with insufficient support for the increase in plasticizers. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and consolidate.