Review of the Natural Rubber Market in 2024

 

The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and rise in 2024. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, 2024, the domestic natural rubber market price was 16890 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.33% from 13060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The high point of the cycle was at the end of September at RMB/ton, and the low point was at the beginning of February at RMB 12570/ton.

 

At the beginning of the year, as the Spring Festival approached, downstream construction significantly decreased, resulting in light trading in the natural rubber market and a low price consolidation with no market. After the Spring Festival, due to the combined effects of multiple factors such as El Ni ñ o phenomenon, aging of rubber trees, and shortage of rubber cutting workers, natural rubber raw material cutting in major production areas around the world has almost come to a halt, and the prices of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad have continued to rise, driving a significant increase in domestic natural rubber prices.

 

At the beginning of the second quarter, with the improvement of production area cutting and the pressure of total social inventory, natural rubber prices experienced a decline. In the mid to late second quarter, the cutting process slowed down again due to continuous rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas, coupled with the continuous destocking of natural rubber prices at ports, which rose again until early June.

 

At the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter, on the one hand, the terminal tire market was not optimistic about shipments, and the production of all steel tires declined. Downstream demand for high priced natural rubber sources was relatively resistant. In addition, due to suitable domestic and international climates, the high prices of natural rubber raw materials fell, and the comprehensive demand and cost dragged down, resulting in a significant drop in natural rubber prices.

 

Starting from mid to late August of the third quarter, Thailand’s production areas were affected by continuous rainfall and floods. In addition, the typhoon in September had a significant impact on the rubber production areas, making it impossible to carry out rubber cutting work during this period. The natural rubber raw material market at home and abroad was extremely scarce, and raw material prices rose again, further promoting a significant increase in domestic natural rubber prices, reaching the highest point of the year at the end of September.

 

In the fourth quarter, the weather in the main production areas entered a prosperous season with normal conditions, and the output of raw materials increased significantly. The prices of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad fell from high levels. In addition, domestic port inventory has once again entered the accumulation stage, which has a bearish impact on natural rubber prices. However, the domestic downstream production of semi steel tires continues to remain at a high level, while the production of all steel tires has increased, and the demand is supported by the demand for natural rubber. The overall range of natural rubber prices fluctuated in the fourth quarter under the comprehensive influence.

 

Current situation of natural rubber fundamentals

 

In 2024, the global production of natural rubber increased year-on-year, domestic imports decreased year-on-year, and downstream tires in China increased year-on-year. Overall, the fundamentals of natural rubber in China improved in 2024, providing strong support for the natural rubber market.

 

The latest November 2024 report released by ANRPC predicts that global natural rubber production is expected to decrease by 1.1% to 1.417 million tons in November, an increase of 3.7% from the previous month, and an increase of 2.3% to 12.691 million tons in the first 11 months; The global production of natural rubber is expected to increase by 4.5% year-on-year to 14.539 million tons in 2024. Among them, Thailand decreased by 0.4%, Indonesia increased by 12.3%, China increased by 4.1%, India increased by 6%, Vietnam decreased by 2%, Malaysia increased by 0.6%, Sri Lanka increased by 21.9%, and other countries increased by 11.6%.

 

In terms of imports, according to customs data, the cumulative import volume of natural rubber in China from January to November 2024 was 5.0191 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.86%. The import volume of natural rubber in 2024 has significantly decreased year-on-year, providing certain support for the domestic natural rubber market

 

In 2024, the operating rate of all steel tires remained relatively low compared to the same period last year, but the inventory of all steel tires gradually decreased in the second half of the year and the operating rate steadily increased. In 2024, the operating rate of semi steel tires remained relatively high year-on-year, and downstream passenger car sales continued to improve. The inventory of semi steel tires has remained at a relatively low level. Although the production of all steel tires has a low demand for dragging rubber, the overall consumption of natural rubber in tire production is relatively high compared to the same period last year due to the sustained improvement in demand for semi steel tires.

 

Outlook for the Natural Rubber Market in 2025

 

Natural rubber production may reach its peak by 2025

 

The natural rubber production capacity of Asian rubber producing countries in 2024 is approximately 15.57 million tons. Based on the 7-year cutting of rubber trees, it is expected that the natural rubber production capacity will show a slight decline after peaking in the later stage. It is estimated that by 2030, the natural rubber production capacity of Asian rubber producing countries will decline to 13.02 million tons, which is a compound annual decrease of about 3.0% compared to 2024. At the current high prices, Indonesia’s production is expected to significantly decline by 2025, while regions with relatively young tree age structures such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Cote d’Ivoire are expected to see an increase in production. However, overall, natural rubber production is expected to peak.

 

The demand for new car tires and the market demand for replacement tires are expected to improve

 

On the one hand, the global resident car stock will maintain a growth trend from 2023 to 2025; On the other hand, in the past 2024, the global share of cheap tires in Asia has increased. Overall, the improvement of global residents’ consumption ability and the shift in their consumption habits towards choosing Asian tires with higher cost-effectiveness are expected to further open up the potential demand space for the replacement tire market. The demand for replacement tires is expected to continue to grow in 2025

 

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 27.903 million and 27.94 million respectively, an increase of 2.9% and 3.7% year-on-year. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 11.345 million and 11.262 million respectively, an increase of 34.6% and 35.6% year-on-year; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 40.3% of the total sales of new cars. The downstream demand for automobiles is expected to improve in 2025, especially for new energy vehicles. Encouraged by relevant domestic policies, it is expected that demand will continue to steadily increase.

 

The disturbance of weather factors in 2025 will have a certain impact on the natural rubber market

 

It is expected that under normal weather conditions in 2025, global natural rubber production will slightly increase, and the global supply-demand gap may narrow; If the weather is abnormal, global natural rubber production will be somewhat hindered, and the global supply-demand gap will slightly widen.

 

Taking into account factors such as the basic peak of supply and the expected increase in demand, the natural rubber market is expected to remain at a high level in 2025. Coupled with weather factors, the natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate within a high range in 2025.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market for adipic acid has risen since January. On January 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8100 yuan/ton, and on January 10th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8133 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%.

 

Lido supports the improvement of adipic acid market

 

After New Year’s Day, the demand for purchasing adipic acid from some terminals increased, and the raw material market stopped falling and stabilized. Supported by bullish factors, traders have raised the price of adipic acid one after another, and the adipic acid market has rebounded. The market transactions are still acceptable, and the volume of goods has increased. As of January 10th, the domestic market price of adipic acid has risen to around 8100 yuan/ton.

 

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that as the end of the year approaches, the supply of adipic acid will decline, and there is still room for an upward trend in the future adipic acid market.

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This week (January 6-10, 2025), the nylon filament market continued to decline weakly. The market price of caprolactam on the raw material side has continued to decline, and the support on the cost side has weakened; The on-site supply is relatively abundant, making it difficult to provide upward momentum for the market; The demand in the terminal market is weak, and there is a certain degree of risk aversion in the downstream market. The enthusiasm for stocking up is not high, and most manufacturers are in the year-end closing stage, mainly focusing on acquiring goods for immediate needs. The fatigue on the demand side remains unchanged. There is currently no positive news supporting the market, and the nylon filament market continues to decline weakly.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament fell weakly this week (January 6-10, 2025). As of January 10, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 16460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decrease of 1.20%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.74%. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 17225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton or 1.57% from last week.

 

Raw materials continue to decline

 

In terms of cost, the weekly closing price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam has been lowered to 10880 yuan/ton, and the market price of high-speed spinning nylon PA6 chips is under pressure and declining. The market price of raw materials continues to decline during the week, and cost support is weak. As of January 10, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society is 10776 yuan/ton.

 

Supply and demand: This week (January 6-10, 2025), there has been no significant fluctuation in the operating rate of nylon filament market equipment, and the overall inventory level in the market is at a normal level. The supply side is performing relatively well, making it difficult to provide upward momentum for the market. The demand in the terminal market is weak, and there is a certain degree of risk aversion in the downstream market. The enthusiasm for stocking up is not high, and most manufacturers are in the year-end closing stage, mainly focusing on acquiring goods for immediate needs. The fatigue on the demand side remains unchanged.

 

Future forecast

 

The spot market for raw material caprolactam and the market for nylon PA6 chips may continue to have a stable trend, while the cost side is generally stable. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches and downstream manufacturers are not enthusiastic about restocking, some nylon filament manufacturers have plans to reduce production, resulting in a slight decrease in on-site supply. However, the impact on the market is limited, and it is expected that the supply of nylon filament in the short term may decrease; The replenishment action in the downstream market is not obvious at the moment, and some manufacturers may gradually reduce production and have holidays. There is still a possibility of a decrease in on-site demand, so it is expected that the driving force from the demand side of the nylon filament market will remain weak next week. Business analysts predict that the price range of nylon filament market will mainly be weakly adjusted next week.

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Market Overview: In 2025, the acrylonitrile market has rebounded and stopped falling. Due to multiple factors such as tight supply, low capacity utilization, increased demand in the spot market, and manufacturers raising prices, the acrylonitrile market has seen a significant increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, there has been a tail up trend. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is 9600-9750 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 9350-9550 yuan/ton.

 

Supply shortage: In 2024, the acrylonitrile market was in a state of oversupply, resulting in production losses and inventory pressure in the middle of the year. As a result, some acrylonitrile factories voluntarily reduced production, and major factories in East China gradually reduced their load, leading to a continuous shortage of supply in the region. Due to the unexpected parking of a set in Shandong this week, the already tight supply situation has been further exacerbated. The main factories have seen a significant increase in their listed prices, with a focus on maintaining contract supply. It is reported that some factories have suspended spot sales. There is a shortage of spot resources, and market negotiations are further exploring.

 

Low social inventory: The acrylonitrile market will be relatively sluggish in 2024. Although the acrylonitrile market price will continue to rise in the second half of the year, the profit situation for traders is poor, and the market situation is difficult to grasp. In addition, the current logistics situation is relatively abundant, which indicates a late holiday time, leading to insufficient stocking willingness of operators and low social inventory.

 

Increased demand: Since the National Day holiday, domestic ABS manufacturers have theoretically turned losses into profits, achieving a profitable state, which has increased the enthusiasm of production enterprises to start work, and some enterprises have moderately increased their operating load. Secondly, as we enter the fourth quarter, some companies are facing annual production task assessments, and profitability can better drive manufacturers to actively increase their operating rates. Finally, thanks to the improvement in home appliance orders, some ABS manufacturers have seen an increase in orders, further boosting production enthusiasm. And in 2025, the government announced the continuation of the subsidy program for car and home appliances trade in, which also stimulated the ABS market to continue operating at a high level.

 

Market forecast: Currently, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream factories still have inventory demand, but the spot market supply is limited, and some factories are holding back on sales, and there are still uncertain factors in the supply side. Therefore, the acrylonitrile market will maintain an upward trend before the holiday, and spot market prices will mainly follow factory quotes.

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According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of acrylic acid in the market will show a narrow range of fluctuations in 2024. Under the constraints of cost pressure and supply and demand factors, the market price fluctuates between 6100-7400 yuan/ton. Especially in December, due to tight supply, the price of acrylic acid showed a year-end upward trend, with a significant increase in price.

 

（1） Market Review of 2024

 

From the beginning of the year to the middle of the year (January to June)

 

At the beginning of the year, the price of acrylic acid was relatively low, but over time, the price gradually increased. Especially in April and June, there was a significant increase in the price of acrylic acid. For example, the price of acrylic acid in April was 6800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% year-on-year; In June, the price of acrylic acid reached 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year.

 

Mid year to year-end (July to December)

 

Entering the second half of the year, the price of acrylic acid continues to show an upward trend. In July, the overall market price of acrylic acid showed a downward trend, with an average market price of about 6300 yuan/ton in mainstream regions, but then the price quickly rebounded. From the end of November to the beginning of December, there was a significant slight increase in the market price of acrylic acid, especially on December 24th, the average price of the mainstream market in China has reached 7500 yuan/ton, showing a significant increase compared to previous days.

 

Supply side: Global acrylic acid production capacity continues to increase by 2025

 

As of the latest statistical data, the global production capacity of acrylic acid has approached 9 million tons. Among them, Northeast Asia accounts for about 60% of the production capacity, while China holds 38% of the market share, becoming an important producer of acrylic acid worldwide. North America and Europe respectively occupy 15% and 16% of the production capacity.

 

In recent years, the global production capacity of acrylic acid has shown a steady growth trend. This is mainly due to the expansion of production capacity in the Asian market, especially in the Chinese market.

 

It is predicted that by 2025, the global production capacity of acrylic acid will experience significant growth, with the potential to increase to 10.35 million tons per year. As the main producer of acrylic acid in the world, China’s capacity expansion has a significant impact on the growth of global acrylic acid production capacity. It is predicted that China’s newly added acrylic acid production capacity will account for 66% of the newly added capacity in the Asian region, demonstrating China’s strong strength in the field of acrylic acid production.

 

Stable growth rate of acrylic acid production capacity in China by 2025

 

Capacity and output growth: In recent years, China’s acrylic acid production capacity has continued to grow steadily. As of the end of 2022, China’s acrylic acid production capacity has reached 3.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 14.04%. By 2023, the production capacity will further increase to 4.08 million tons, and the output will grow to 2.54 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. By 2024, the production capacity of acrylic acid will further increase to 4.4 million tons, and it is expected to exceed 5 million tons and reach 5.14 million tons by 2025. These data indicate that China’s acrylic acid industry has strong production capacity and market supply capability.

 

Expected global production of acrylic acid in 2025

 

There is currently no definite number for the forecast of global acrylic acid production in 2025, as the forecast is influenced by various factors including capacity planning, market demand, raw material prices, production costs, global economic situation, policy changes, etc. However, based on existing industry trends and market analysis, we can attempt to make a rough prediction of global acrylic acid production by 2025.

 

Based on historical growth trends, it is predicted that the global production of acrylic acid in 2021 will be 7.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.37%. In 2023, the global production of acrylic acid has reached approximately 8.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. If we assume an annual growth rate of around 5% from 2022 to 2025, the global production of acrylic acid is expected to reach approximately 9.5 million tons by 2025.

 

At present, China’s acrylic acid industry is still expanding its production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, the planned and under construction acrylic acid production capacity in China is 940000 tons from 2025 to 2026. If successfully completed and put into operation, it is expected that the production capacity of acrylic acid will steadily increase in the next two years, and its production capacity is expected to exceed 5 million tons by 2026.

 

2025 Acrylic Acid New Production Capacity Project

 

Guangdong Maoming Acrylic Acid Industrial Park Project

 

Project scale: The total investment is about 11.5 billion yuan. The first phase plans to construct a 50000 ton/year acrylic acid plant and 100000 ton/year butyl acrylate (also known as 80000 ton/year butyl acrylate). The second phase plans to construct 960000 ton/year acrylic acid plant, 800000 ton/year acrylic acid plant (also known as 750000 ton/year butyl acrylate, 180000 ton/year octyl acrylate), and 540000 ton/year SAP plant.

 

In 2025, the acrylic acid industry will see the commissioning of multiple new production capacity projects and steady growth of existing production capacity. Against the backdrop of high downstream demand potential, technological innovation, and increasing environmental requirements, the acrylic acid industry will continue to maintain a steady growth trend.

 

Forecast of apparent consumption of acrylic acid in China in 2025

 

From the perspective of demand, in recent years, the overall demand for acrylic acid in China has shown a steady growth trend. The apparent consumption of acrylic acid in China was 2.415 million tons in 2022, 2.65 million tons in 2023, and 2.77 million tons in 2024. With the recovery of demand for acrylic acid, it is predicted to grow to 3.1 million tons by 2025.

 

Proportion of demand products in China by 2025

The downstream products of acrylic acid in 2025 mainly include acrylic esters SAP、 Cleaning aids, special acrylic esters, water treatment agents.

 

Among them, the demand for acrylic ester accounts for the highest proportion, reaching 60%; Next is the high water absorbent resin SAP, which accounts for 20% of the demand. From the downstream field of superabsorbent polymers (SAP), about 87% of SAP in China is used for hygiene products, mainly including sanitary napkins, diapers, etc. Acrylic esters can react with various alcohols to produce acrylic esters, including methyl ester, ethyl ester, butyl ester, and isooctyl ester (with butyl ester being the most widely used). After polymerization, they are widely used in industries such as coatings, adhesives, and textiles. The proportion of acrylic ester used in the production of coating products is 36%, and the proportion used in adhesive products is 31%. Both are the main downstream products of acrylic ester, accounting for over 65%.

 

Proportion of regional demand

 

From a regional distribution perspective, the Asia Pacific region is the main growth point for global demand for acrylic acid, accounting for over 50%, while the total demand from China and India accounts for about 70% of this region. This indicates that China holds an important position in the global demand market for acrylic acid.

 

Overall Import and Export Status of Acrylic Acid in 2024

 

Import situation: From January to November 2024, the cumulative import volume of acrylic acid in China was 21977.69 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37.21% compared to the same period last year. But in November, the import volume increased significantly, reaching 4558.35 tons, a month on month increase of 101.65%. In terms of average import price, the average import price of acrylic acid in November was 5717.16 yuan/ton.

 

Export situation: From January to November 2024, the cumulative export volume of acrylic acid in China was 101401.38 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.21% compared to the same period last year. Although the overall export volume has decreased, the monthly export volume still fluctuates. In terms of average export price, the average export price of acrylic acid from January to November 2024 was 875.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 170.94 US dollars/ton or 16.34% compared to the same period last year.

 

Main import and export countries/regions

Importing country/region: South Korea is the largest source country for China’s acrylic acid imports, accounting for 55.57%; Next is Japan, accounting for 43.21%.

 

Exporting country/region: Taiwan, China, China has the largest export volume of acrylic acid, accounting for 26.73% of the total export volume; Next is South Korea, which accounts for 18.70%; The third is the United Arab Emirates, accounting for 10.26%.

 

Import and export prices and trends

 

Import price: The average import price of acrylic acid in each month of 2024 has fluctuated, but overall it has remained relatively stable.

 

Export price: The average export price of acrylic acid in 2024 has decreased compared to 2023, which has affected the overall export quantity of acrylic acid. But with changes in market supply and demand, export prices are expected to be adjusted in the future.

 

Future prospects:

 

With the gradual commissioning of domestic acrylic acid plants, it is expected that the production capacity of acrylic acid will increase significantly by 2025. This will further affect the supply and demand relationship and price trend of domestic and international acrylic acid markets. At the same time, the growth of domestic downstream production capacity is limited, and the demand growth rate is slower than the growth rate of raw materials, so the future export volume may face certain challenges.

 

Inventory and supply-demand balance forecast: Inventory will maintain a low supply-demand balance or be tight

 

Inventory situation

 

Historical inventory level: In January 2022, the social inventory of acrylic acid was only 5000 tons, reaching a new low in nearly five years. This indicates that the inventory level of the acrylic acid market has been consistently low.

 

Future inventory forecast: Due to limited new supply in the acrylic acid and ester industry and steady growth in demand, it can be predicted that the inventory level of the acrylic acid market will remain low in 2025.

 

Supply-demand balance forecast

 

Supply and demand balance: Taking into account both supply and demand, it can be predicted that the acrylic acid market will maintain a state of supply and demand balance or slightly tight by 2025.

 

Price trend: In a state of supply-demand balance or tightness, the prices of acrylic acid and esters may remain relatively stable or slightly increase.

 

In summary, the inventory of the acrylic acid market will remain at a low level in 2025, with a steady increase in supply capacity and strong demand. In a state of supply-demand balance or tightness, the prices of acrylic acid and esters may remain relatively stable or slightly increase.

 

In the short term, the inventory level of acrylic acid directly affects its market supply situation. When inventory is tight, a decrease in market supply may lead to price increases; On the contrary, sufficient inventory may lead to a decrease in prices. This supply-demand imbalance will lead to significant fluctuations in the price of acrylic acid in the market.

 

In the long run, the balanced development of supply and demand will have a significant impact on the price trend of acrylic acid. However, due to the uncertainty of the market caused by various factors, it is difficult to provide accurate predictions. However, we can predict the market price of acrylic acid between 6500-9000 yuan/ton in 2025 based on current market trends and supply and demand conditions.

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