According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have continued to rise recently. On February 3, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 654 points, up 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.05% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 141.33% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all shown an upward trend. As of the 4th, the price of neodymium oxide was 820000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.47% in February; The price of neodymium metal is 982500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.69% since February; The price of praseodymium oxide is 790000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.27%; The price of praseodymium metal is 960000 yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 2.69%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 920000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.55%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 755000 yuan/ton, and remained stable in February.
In February, the domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise, and there was a strong bullish sentiment towards raw materials in the domestic light rare earth market. Macro news flowed out, and the supply and demand pattern of praseodymium neodymium products tightened, exacerbating market bullish expectations. Under the combined effect of insufficient market supply and bullish sentiment, the spot price of praseodymium neodymium significantly increased. In January 2026, rare earth producers raised the trading price of rare earth concentrates for the first quarter to 26834 yuan/ton, marking the sixth consecutive price increase and directly pushing up the cost center of downstream products such as praseodymium neodymium oxide. The outbreak of rigid demand and the vigorous development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances have driven an increase in orders from downstream magnetic material factories. The global supply-demand gap for praseodymium neodymium oxide is expected to widen to 9000 tons by 2026, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen, leading to a continuous rise in the light rare earth market.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is average, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. The supply-demand imbalance of praseodymium neodymium series products is evident, and the praseodymium neodymium market continues to rise; In addition, the long-term trend of increasing demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other end products remains unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream games, the light rare earth market will maintain a high position.

This week, the reason why the acrylic acid market can still report stable prices mainly depends on the producers’ willingness to raise prices. As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6116.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
1. Cost side:
The consolidation of the raw material propylene range and the slight weakening of the cost side are the most critical turning signals. The core logic of “cost driven” that has supported prices in the past few months is becoming ineffective. As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6391.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6404.33 yuan/ton).
2. Demand side:
The strong wait-and-see atmosphere at the beginning of the week directly exposed the weakness on the demand side. Downstream demand is not non-existent, but rather a common mentality of “waiting for a decline” or “purchasing on demand”, which leads to the market losing the “fuel” for upward movement and sluggish trading. As the Spring Festival approaches, terminal factories are gradually taking a holiday, which is an irreversible seasonal bearish trend. The shrinking demand is turning from expectation into reality, and this gravity will only become stronger and stronger.
Market situation:
The current ‘stability’ is a fragile weak balance. It is not a healthy stability of both supply and demand, but a brief stalemate formed during a downward trend due to sellers’ unwillingness to lower prices and buyers’ unwillingness to purchase. The buyer and seller are deadlocked at the critical point of “price”, but the pointer of time is sliding towards the weaker demand of the Spring Festival, and the balance is quietly tilting.
Future outlook:
Short term (pre holiday): This “price but no market” stalemate may continue for a few more days, but the exhaustion of patience on either side could disrupt the balance. If a large factory “offers discounts and ships” in order to recoup funds, or if the price of propylene further drops, it may trigger a small and exploratory price decline.
Post holiday: The real direction choice comes after the Spring Festival. At that time, two key points need to be considered: first, whether the pace of downstream resumption of work and the intensity of replenishment can quickly activate demand; The second is the extent of inventory pressure on upstream raw materials and factories. If the resumption of work falls short of expectations and inventory remains high, the pressure after the holiday may be concentrated and released.
Conclusion: The current “steady operation” should be seen more as a stagnant platform or buffer stage in the downward channel of the market, rather than a signal of trend stabilization. Under the dual impact of weakened costs and off-season demand, the risk of a downward adjustment in the market is greater than the probability of an upward breakthrough.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash fell in January. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1250 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1208 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 42 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 3.36%.
2、 Market analysis
According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market fluctuated and declined in January. In terms of supply, the early maintenance equipment has been restored, the operating rate of soda ash has increased, the market supply is abundant, the mentality of operators is bearish, and the focus of soda ash prices has shifted downwards; In terms of demand, the glass industry’s production lines are undergoing cold repairs, and the purchasing sentiment is relatively weak. The actual transaction demand is mainly driven by essential needs, and there is insufficient support for the demand for soda ash. The market supply and demand are weak, and soda ash prices have declined this month.
As of January 30, 2026, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1120-1560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20-40 yuan/ton compared to the previous month; The mainstream price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1100-1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; The mainstream price of light soda ash in North China is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 30-70 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices have been running strongly this month, with the average glass market price increasing from 12.75 yuan/square meter to 13.10 yuan/square meter, an overall increase of 2.75%. During the month, some glass production lines underwent cold repairs, resulting in a narrow decrease in industry operating rates. Downstream buyers entered the market on demand, and overall shipments were good. The pressure on enterprise inventory eased, and the glass industry experienced significant destocking, leading to an increase in glass prices.
Market forecast: On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, and market supply pressure still exists. The downstream mentality is wait-and-see, and there is limited support for soda ash due to the urgent need to purchase after entering the market. The short-term soda ash market will continue to be weak. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there may be a demand for replenishment in the downstream. It is expected that the soda ash market will experience narrow fluctuations in the future, depending on the follow-up situation of the downstream.

As of January 30th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25776 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.43% compared to the zinc price of 24682 yuan/ton on January 26th.
Macroscopic perspective
The market’s expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is constantly increasing, and the US dollar continues to weaken as a result, providing strong support for non-ferrous metal prices. However, the current market sentiment is fluctuating greatly, and the uncertainty of capital flow is also increasing.
Raw material end
The newly added production capacity of global zinc mines will be released in 2026, but some mainstream mines are experiencing production cuts (such as Antamina, Red Dog, etc.), resulting in an overall slowdown in growth rate. Domestically, there is uncertainty in the progress of the production of Huoshaoyun Zinc Mine. If the production is smooth, it will increase the supply of zinc ingots, but the actual output needs to pay attention to the operational efficiency of the mine. The decline in processing fees has slowed down, the loss on zinc ore imports has narrowed, and the supply of domestic and imported minerals is relatively stable. However, the overall supply pressure of domestic minerals has eased due to seasonal production cuts.
Supply and demand side
Traders and smelters are actively shipping and providing quotes, and the overall spot premium is currently maintained at a low level. However, downstream enterprises have started to take holidays one after another, resulting in weak demand for zinc ingots. In addition, the strong trend of market prices has raised concerns among market participants due to high prices, resulting in less purchasing and inquiry behavior. The overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is somewhat quiet.
Traditional demand: The demand in industries such as infrastructure and real estate continues to show a weak trend, with a decrease in the number of terminal orders, which has suppressed the consumption of zinc ingots. At the same time, the export of galvanized sheet is facing numerous challenges from trade barriers, and the overall performance of the demand side is relatively weak.
Emerging demand: The installed capacity of photovoltaics has shown a restorative growth compared to the previous period, and the demand for zinc in fields such as new energy vehicles has shown some resilience. However, the growth rate has slowed down, making it difficult to fully and completely offset the impact of the decline in traditional demand.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, zinc prices may remain volatile at a high level due to improved supply margins and macroeconomic sentiment support, but the pattern of weak supply and demand growth in the medium to long term remains unchanged, and the space above prices is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the production of Huoshaoyun Zinc Mine, the increase in production of overseas refineries, and changes in macro policies.

In the second half of January 2026, the overall performance of Shandong propylene glycol market was weak, with a V-shaped trend of first deep decline and then weak rebound. The core of the market downturn is dominated by three factors: weakened raw material costs, sustained weak demand, and supply pressure. After losing key support, prices accelerated their bottoming out and hit a historic low; The continuous decline in prices has driven some companies to increase their shipments slightly, coupled with the marginal stabilization transmission on the cost side. After the market reduced inventory, there was a tentative small increase, but the overall weak atmosphere has not been reversed due to the lack of demand.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 29th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province was 5933 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39% during the period.
Analysis of Core Driving Factors
Supply side: Loose supply becomes normal, pressure persists
Recently, the operating rate of the propylene glycol plant in Shandong has fluctuated narrowly, with an average operating rate of around 73%. The overall supply is sufficient, and the market circulation of goods is abundant. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some factories plan to arrange maintenance or reduce production in advance, resulting in a slight decrease in supply. However, this will only alleviate short-term pressure and cannot reverse the overall oversupply situation. It is necessary to continue to monitor the actual operation of the top enterprises’ equipment.
Demand side: Lack of essential needs and insufficient downstream support
The downstream demand for propylene glycol is concentrated in the fields of unsaturated polyester resin, coatings, and polyether. Currently, it is in the traditional seasonal off-season, and the operating rate of the unsaturated polyester resin industry is less than 40%. Enterprises mainly focus on digesting inventory, and their willingness to purchase in bulk is low; There has been no significant rebound in downstream demand for coatings, polyethers, and other products, and only sporadic restocking has been maintained for essential needs. Although there has been a slight increase in the export market, Southeast Asian buyers have a strong willingness to lower prices and tend to lock in low-priced sources, making it difficult to drive overall domestic prices up. The demand side has no driving effect on the market.
Cost side: Weakening of core raw materials, complete collapse of cost support
Epoxy propane is the core raw material of propylene glycol, accounting for up to 70% -85% of the cost, and its price fluctuations directly determine the bottom line of propylene glycol cost. In the first half of January, epoxy propane briefly rose and then quickly fell back. On January 29th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society fell to 8200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.02% during the cycle, and the cost support strength significantly weakened; Moreover, many leading companies in the propylene glycol industry are equipped with epoxy propane units, with a self-sufficiency rate of over 80% in raw materials. The lack of cost advantages in outsourcing further exacerbates the downward pressure on prices.
Market outlook in the later stage
As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, companies are gradually suspending work and taking a break. The stocking cycle has basically come to an end, with only sporadic replenishment of inventory at the terminal, without any incremental demand support. Many operators are mainly reducing inventory and collecting payments, and the market is highly cautious. The expected low-level fluctuation of propylene glycol before the holiday is the main tone, and attention should be paid to the supply situation of equipment in the market.