According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI market temporarily operated stably on September 23. The average market price in East China was 14300 yuan / ton, down 3.21% month on month.

On September 23, the distribution market in East China was temporarily stable, and the distribution market price remained stable. The price of domestic goods was about 13600-14000 yuan / ton, and the price of Shanghai goods was about 13900-14500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. There is no inventory pressure due to the equipment maintenance of many TDI factories in China. Under the dual control policy of energy consumption, the downstream demand is general, the transaction at the downstream of the terminal is not smooth, the downstream follows up rationally, just needs to buy, the trading atmosphere on the site is light, the operator’s mentality is mainly wait-and-see, the market outlook is sorted and operated, and the downstream follow-up is concerned.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride increased slightly this week. As of September 19, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 13333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.50% over the average price of 13266.67 yuan / ton on September 13, and an increase of 13.96% over the same period last month.

On September 19, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 125.60, the same as yesterday, down 0.50% from the highest point of 126.23 in the cycle (2021-09-17), and up 145.41% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to decline this week. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream is basically stable, and the resin market just needs to be purchased. As of the 19th, solid anhydride in Shandong was about 12800 yuan / ton, liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 13200 yuan / ton, solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 13400 yuan / ton, solid anhydride in Hebei was about 13300 yuan / ton, and solid anhydride in South China was about 13600 yuan / ton.

Upstream, pure benzene fell after rising this week. The average price of pure benzene was 8080 yuan / ton on September 12 and 8360 yuan / ton on September 19, an increase of 280 yuan / ton or 3.67% over last week. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong increased, from 8025 yuan / ton last weekend to 8775 yuan / ton this weekend, up 750 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane fell, and the price in Shandong was 5300 yuan / ton as of September 18.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 37th week of 2021 (9.13-9.17), there were 61 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 19 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 19.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (73.91%), dichloromethane (56.84%) and phosphoric acid (41.76%). A total of 15 commodities fell month on month, and 2 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 2% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were butadiene (- 9.24%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 5.44%) and boric acid (- 3.83%). The average rise and fall this week was 4.62%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that the rise of maleic anhydride slowed down before the festival. At present, the supply of maleic anhydride in the domestic maleic anhydride market is limited, some factories are pre sold, there is no inventory pressure in the factories, the supply and demand is good, the price of raw materials is rising, and the cost of maleic anhydride market is supported. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene rebounded after falling this week. On September 12, the price of mixed xylene was 5710 yuan / ton; On Sunday (September 19), the price was 5800 yuan / ton, up 1.58% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 62.92%.

2、 Analysis and review

Driven by the sharp rise in the prices of refined oil and related aromatic products, mixed xylene rebounded after falling this week. The price of gasoline blending rose, and the market trend of downstream terminals was strong; The overall trend of raw crude oil is upward, the market guidance is good, the market is bullish, and the price support psychology is not reduced. The port inventory of mixed xylene decreased this week.

In terms of external market, as of September 17, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $772.5/t, up US $10 / T or 1.31% month on month compared with September 10; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 795 US dollars / ton, up 12 US dollars / ton or 1.53% month on month on September 10.

In terms of crude oil, hurricane IDA has a great impact on U.S. oil and gas production, and the recovery of oil and gas production is slow. In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory have decreased, and the international oil price has shown an overall upward trend this week. On September 10, Brent rose $2.42 / barrel, or 3.32%; WTI rose $2.25/barrel, or 3.23%.

Downstream, in the PX market, in the PX market, the domestic PX trend was temporarily stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton, up 54.35% over the same period last year. As of September 17, the closing prices in Asia were USD 894-896 / T FOB Korea and USD 912-914 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China rose broadly this week and fell slightly near the weekend. On Friday (September 17), the price was 4926.36 yuan / ton, up 3.63% from last week and 40.6% from the same period last year.

In the ox market, the price of orthobenzene rose this week. On Friday (September 17), the price of ox in East China was 6500 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from last week and 47.73% from the same period last year. With the advent of the double festival, the logistics shutdown is imminent, the stock of enterprises is increasing, and the driving force for the rise of o-benzene is increasing; The environmental protection supervision team was restarted, the shutdown and production restriction of chemical enterprises increased, and the chemical sector rose together, driving the rise of orthobenzene prices.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, with the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, the oil price may fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

The downstream trend was strong, the port inventory of mixed xylene decreased, and the fundamental support was good. However, the weak market demand situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the mixed xylene is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range next week. Pay attention to the impact of the operating rate and demand of downstream units, as well as the trend of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

On September 16, the cryolite commodity index was 78.80, the same as yesterday, down 22.14% from the highest point of 101.21 in the cycle (October 31, 2011), and up 18.76% from the lowest point of 66.35 on September 5, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of cryolite market in Henan Province was stable on September 16. The average price of cryolite market was 6457.50 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The ex factory prices of cryolite in Henan and Shandong were 6300-6600 yuan / ton. The quotation of domestic enterprises is temporarily stable according to their own shipment situation, the overall operation of the market is relatively stable, the plant of cryolite manufacturers starts normally, the enterprise inventory is OK, the market supply is tight, the downstream purchases on demand, and the supply and demand performance is stable.

Future forecast: at present, the overall supply of cryolite market is stable, the raw materials are tight, the production capacity of individual cryolite enterprises is low, the cryolite price is high, the downstream demand is rational, and the price fluctuation will not be obvious in a short time. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate stably for the time being, with specific attention to the market demand.

On September 15, the rare earth index was 595 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 40.50% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 119.56% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series was temporarily stable. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 602500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal was 740000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide was 640000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide was 6275000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 815000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 765000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide increased by 30000 yuan / ton to 2705000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 50000 yuan / ton to 2.66 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal increased by 35000 yuan / ton to 3.44 million yuan / ton, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market increased, the recent procurement was general, the price of praseodymium neodymium series increased slightly, the price trend of dysprosium series and terbium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market increased recently, the downstream procurement was not active, and Myanmar banned export, It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will mainly rise in the later stage.