According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China continued to decline in late November. On November 30th, the average market price in East China was 16700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the price of 17200 yuan/ton on November 21st, a decrease of 2.91%.

The domestic TDI market has been weak and declining this cycle, with prices continuing to decline. The factory equipment has not changed much, the supplier’s news is quiet, the trade market mentality is not good, terminal inquiries are cold, downstream procurement is sluggish, market trading is weak, shippers have poor shipments, and the confidence of operators is insufficient. The TDI transaction center continues to shift downwards.

The price of upstream toluene has fallen, and the market situation has been weak and downward during the cycle. On November 30th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6660 yuan/ton, a 2.06% overall decrease from the price of 6800 yuan/ton on November 21st. The international crude oil price range fluctuates, with weak support for the cost of toluene. Downstream demand enters the off-season, market inquiries are weak, and support for toluene demand is weak. In addition, the external price has fallen, and toluene port inventory has significantly increased. The supply side is negatively affected, and the toluene market lacks support, resulting in a downward trend in the market.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that mainstream device maintenance and tight supply of goods in the domestic TDI market are the main reasons for traders to hold up prices. However, downstream buyers have a weak buying attitude and a feeling of just in need procurement. The market trading atmosphere is not good, and there is a game of supply and demand on the market. It is expected that the TDI market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province first fell and then rose in November. The price of isooctanol first dropped from 11460.00 yuan/ton on November 1st to 11120.00 yuan/ton on November 7th, a decrease of 2.97%. Later, it fluctuated and rose to 11460.00 yuan/ton on November 29th, an increase of 3.06%. At the end of the month, the price increased by 25.02% year-on-year.

On November 29th, the isooctanol commodity index was 84.26, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.72% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 139.72% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market prices of isooctanol in Shandong have fluctuated this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and rises

In November, the ex factory price of propylene fluctuated and increased, rising from 7050.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7105.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.78%, with a maximum amplitude of 5.93%. At the end of the month, the price decreased by 5.77% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, with good cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Demand side: DOP market fluctuates and rises

The DOP market price fluctuated and increased in November. The price of DOP increased from 11225.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11475.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.23%, with a maximum amplitude of 2.83%. The price at the end of the month increased by 14.75% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream customers are more enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

Looking at the future: In mid to early December, the domestic isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The upstream propylene price has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has recently fluctuated and risen, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isooctanol. Analysts from Shengyishe Isooctanol believe that in the short term, under the influence of supply and demand, as well as raw materials, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased in November. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.57%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.67% at the end of the month.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region slightly decreased in November.

Cost side: The price of blue charcoal has slightly decreased

In November, the upstream price of calcium carbide blue charcoal slightly decreased, with a price of around 1200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal is stable but weak, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient.

On the demand side: Downstream market fluctuations and declines

In November, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell. The market price of PVC dropped from 5844.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5764.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.37%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 3.98% year-on-year. The downstream market price of 1,4-butanediol has significantly decreased. The market price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 10157.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9628.57 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.20%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 2.54% year-on-year. The downstream market is fluctuating and falling, and downstream demand is weakening.

Looking ahead, in mid to early December, the calcium carbide market may experience a slight decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early December, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market slightly declined in late November. As of November 27th, the average spot market price in East China was 5775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.53% compared to November 20th. The international crude oil market is weak and volatile, with cost drivers slowing down. Coupled with the continuous discharge of PTA restart devices, the overall supply of goods is sufficient, leading to a decline in the PTA market.

From the perspective of PTA supply, with the restart of early maintenance equipment, the industry’s operating rate has increased to over 81%, indicating sufficient supply of goods. Looking ahead, the new production capacity of 1.25 million tons in South China may be put into operation by the end of the month. Even though the 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Shandong is planned for maintenance, the overall restart and new production capacity are greater than the planned maintenance capacity, and the future PTA supply will still be sufficient.

International crude oil prices have fallen, and the market is engaged in a game about whether the OPEC+conference can reach a strong production reduction agreement. At present, the market holds a pessimistic attitude towards reaching production reduction agreements with various companies, and the overall sentiment is weak. In addition, with the recent increase in supply from various regions, as of November 24th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $75.54 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $80.48 per barrel.

The polyester production load will stabilize around 87% next week. The autumn and winter fabrics and lining materials sold domestically are still popular, with a small number of orders for domestic spring and summer fabrics and a small number of orders for foreign trade. However, due to the relatively high inventory pressure on conventional grey fabric in spring and summer, there is currently no significant improvement in the market. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has partially rebounded, and as of November 23, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving is over 75%.

Business Society analysts believe that the future PTA supply pressure will be highlighted, with few terminal demand orders and many polyester factories in urgent need of replenishment. Against the backdrop of a weakening market supply and demand structure, the short-term trend of PTA remains mainly weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have been rising, but the prices of light rare earth markets have continued to decline. On November 23, the rare earth index was 490 points, a decrease of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 51.34% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 80.81% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has increased. As of the 24th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.625 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.17% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.545 million yuan/ton, with a 3.04% increase this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 3.365 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.06%; The domestic price of terbium series has risen, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 7.75 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 9.45 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price trend in the heavy rare earth market has rebounded, and downstream large factories continue to support the market with sufficient market confidence. With an increase in procurement orders, the price trend in the heavy rare earth market has risen. The inverted situation of rare earth metal prices has improved, with an increase in on-site inquiries and some traders actively entering the market. In addition, due to the recent political impact on Myanmar, import sources in Myanmar have been restricted to some extent, which has supported the upward trend of prices in the domestic heavy rare earth market.

According to statistics, in October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 989000 and 956000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 5.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.2% and 33.5%, respectively. From January to October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 7.352 million and 7.28 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.9% and 37.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market. The prices of heavy rare earths have rebounded.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, rare earth exports in October reached 4290.6 tons, a month on month increase of 9.0%; The cumulative rare earth exports from January to October were 44661.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The export volume of rare earth commodities from China increased, but to some extent, it supported the prices of the rare earth market.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have seen a surge in purchasing and ordering sentiment, with an increase in new orders. It is expected that the price trend in the heavy rare earth market will mainly rise in the short term; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.