1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices first rose and then fell. As of July 24th, copper prices were reported at 105261.67 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the beginning of the week and up 31.87% year-on-year.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 281425 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 4.69% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the escalation of the US Iran conflict has pushed up oil prices and reignited concerns about inflation; The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has increased (the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 83%); The US dollar index rose to 101.5, and the 10Y US bond interest rate rose to 4.70%; AI chip stocks were sold off, dragging down copper prices.
Supply side: The winter storm in Chile has led to the shutdown of Codelco’s main mines and Caserones mines, exacerbating the shortage of mines. Copper concentrate TC fell to a historical low of -141.5 US dollars per ton, with approximately 16% of global smelting capacity idle. China’s sulfuric acid exports have plummeted by 99.2%, and scrap copper is subject to invoicing restrictions. There is a risk of downward revision in the production guidance of multiple mining companies, leading to a comprehensive tightening of supply.
On the demand side: In June, China’s actual demand increased by 13% year-on-year, with power grid investment of 620 billion yuan, new energy vehicle penetration rate exceeding 40%, and structural growth driven by AI data centers. However, during the off-season of traditional consumption, white goods have weakened, demand differentiation is obvious, and overall resilience still exceeds expectations.
In summary, the winter storm in Chile combined with TC falling to historical lows has led to a comprehensive tightening of supply from mining to smelting; Although the demand side is in the traditional off-season, the resilience supported by the power grid and AI infrastructure has resulted in supply contraction far exceeding the decline in demand, exacerbating the mismatch between supply and demand and continuously reducing inventory. Under the pattern of low inventory and tight spot prices, copper prices are strongly supported, and copper prices are expected to hit high levels within the year. However, caution should be exercised against the risk of a pullback caused by COMEX inventory release and macroeconomic disturbances.

In July, domestic nitrile rubber ended its downward trend in June and emerged from a rebound trend. As of July 23rd, the price was 16725 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.65% from 16150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of July 23rd, Lanhua Nitrile N41E in East China offered a price range of 16900 to 17100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price for 2665 in Russia is 15800 to 16000 yuan/ton.
Upstream raw material butadiene saw a significant increase, while acrylonitrile first fell and then rose. The production cost of nitrile increased significantly, driving up bullish sentiment among traders. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the price of butadiene was 10533 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.80% from 8866 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of July 23rd, the price of acrylonitrile was 9950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% from 10083 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
There is marginal contraction on the supply side. In July, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s nitrile plant started its annual maintenance, and the domestic industry’s operating rate fell from 75% in June to around 68%, leading to a tightening of market supply. After continuous destocking in the first half of the year, social inventory remained relatively low for the year, and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, further boosting spot prices and improving market transactions with a small amount of speculative replenishment.
At present, it is in the traditional off-season for rubber and plastic products, and the average operating rate of downstream automotive seals and oil resistant rubber hose enterprises for nitrile is maintained at a low level of 45% -52%. The increase in terminal vehicle matching orders is limited; The rubber glove industry mainly relies on on-demand procurement and lacks the power to replenish inventory on a large scale. The market transactions are mostly for orders from small and medium-sized enterprises, making it difficult to support a sustained and significant increase in prices.
Market forecast:
Nitrile rubber experienced a continuous decline for three months in the early stage, and the price was found to be at a low level in early July. Recently, the market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the current price is approaching the 10 day and 20 day moving averages. The short-term moving average is gradually leveling off from a downward trend and showing signs of turning, indicating a significant decline in downward momentum. The current price is supported by the short-term moving average, forming a preliminary pattern of stopping the decline. The primary pressure above is located in the dense range of the previous moving average, and if the volume can be matched, it is expected to continue the rebound; If the rebound is weak, there is still a risk of a second bottoming out.

Aluminum prices stop falling and rebound in July
The trend of domestic aluminum ingot prices is expected to decline in July 2026. As of July 22, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 23186.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.12% from the market average price of 22270 yuan/ton on July 1.
The main reasons for the rebound of aluminum prices in July are as follows:
1. Macro expectations are warming up:
The employment and inflation data in the United States have weakened, market expectations of interest rate hikes have cooled down, the US dollar has weakened, and industrial metals priced in US dollars have seen a recovery. The concentrated liquidation of short positions in the early stage has driven a rebound.
2. Significant inventory depletion:
The traditional off-season in China continues to significantly reduce inventory, causing LME aluminum inventories to fall to multi-year lows and tight supply of goods, consolidating the bottom of prices.
3. Supply rigid constraints:
The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 45 million tons has been capped, and the operating rate is close to full capacity; The slow resumption of production by aluminum plants in the Middle East, continuous reduction in high electricity prices in Europe and America, and limited global supply growth.
4. Demand resilience exceeds expectations:
Aluminum exports are on the rise, and the demand for lightweight and essential materials in ultra-high voltage, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles is stable, offsetting the drag of traditional profiles during the off-season and replenishing downstream inventory at low prices.
5. Oversold repair market:
At the end of June, the short-term sharp drop in aluminum prices released a large amount of bearish sentiment, with prices severely oversold and funds buying at low levels driving a rebound.
The logic of aluminum price operation in July:
At the end of June, prices were dragged down by the diminishing Middle East geopolitical premium, strong expectations of Fed interest rate hikes, expectations of a summer consumption off-season, and concentrated bearish pressure; In mid to late July, the weakening of US economic data led to a cooling of interest rate expectations and a weakening of the US dollar. Coupled with the continuous decline in domestic and foreign aluminum inventories, the peak of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and strong supply rigidity due to the coexistence of overseas production resumption and reduction, the demand in emerging fields such as photovoltaics and new energy is bottoming out and downstream inventory is being replenished at a low level. In addition, short covering has pushed prices to stop falling and recover. However, the weak off-season of traditional real estate profiles, long-term overseas new production capacity, and high interest rate environment still limit the extent of price increases, resulting in an overall oversold recovery and volatile market.
Aluminum price forecast for the future:
Short term aluminum prices rely on low inventory, rigid supply, and loose macro expectations to fluctuate strongly, but the traditional off-season suppresses the increase; The peak season for downstream new energy and power grid demand in September and October is expected to drive prices slightly upwards, with upward potential constrained by overseas new production capacity and high interest rates; The long-term domestic production capacity cap supports the central uplift of the price bottom, and the release of overseas production capacity at the end of the year may bring a pullback, resulting in overall range fluctuations. We need to be alert to market fluctuations caused by geopolitical factors, Federal Reserve policies, and changes in real estate demand.

Since July 2026, the natural rubber market has been fluctuating and consolidating. As of July 21st, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16758 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from 16791 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, mainly fluctuating and consolidating during the cycle. ​
The increase in production on the supply side is offset by weather disturbances. Southeast Asia has entered the peak season for rubber cutting. As of July 21st, the natural rubber adhesive produced in Thailand was priced at 78.00 baht/kg, and the cup adhesive was priced at 70.50 baht/kg, with a year-on-year increase of over 40%, forming a bottom support for raw material costs; Periodic rainfall in the main production areas interferes with rubber cutting and temporarily inhibits the release of new rubber. ANRPC data shows that the total global production of natural rubber in May was 997000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. The supply and demand remained slightly short throughout the year, and the long-term bullish expectation of El Ni ñ o continued to exist.
The off-season pressure on the demand side significantly suppresses the upward space. As of July 16th, the domestic semi steel tire production rate was 6.0%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises is 6.20%, and the companies take turns to inspect and control production, resulting in a widespread reduction in production. The inventory days of Shandong tire products exceed 40 days, and factories only need to purchase and use them as needed, resulting in a low willingness to actively replenish inventory. Only the rise in crude oil prices has driven up the cost of synthetic rubber, slightly restoring the comparative advantage of natural rubber. The EU’s anti-dumping policies on the export side continue to suppress export orders. ​
The inventory has been slightly reduced but still relatively high. As of July 19, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 667400 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons compared to the previous period. The pace of inventory reduction is slow and it is difficult to reverse the loose spot pattern. ​
Market forecast:
From a technical perspective, natural rubber prices will rise from late March to mid June 2026, with the 10 day and mid-term 20 day moving averages moving upwards simultaneously. The bullish alignment of moving averages will support the upward trend, and prices will continue to fluctuate based on various moving averages. In mid to late June, the market turned around and prices quickly plummeted, falling below the 10 day and 20 day moving averages consecutively. The short-term moving averages turned downwards, forming bearish pressure. Recently, the current price has slightly wrapped around the 10 day line, and the continuous downward trend of the 20 day line has created upward pressure. The overall trend has shifted from long to short, with a clear bearish pattern on the medium-term moving average. In the short term, there has been only a slight oversold repair, and the rebound strength is limited. ​
Fundamentally speaking, natural rubber maintains a range of fluctuations in the short term. If Southeast Asia continues to experience heavy rainfall that interferes with rubber cutting, there may be a slight rebound potential; If the weather in the production area improves and new rubber is concentrated on the market, prices will come under pressure and fall. After the completion of downstream maintenance in mid August, production is expected to rebound, coupled with the expectation of “golden September and silver October” consumption, the center of gravity of rubber prices may slightly shift upward.

Since July, after a weak consolidation, the adipic acid market has seen an increase. On July 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 7816 yuan/ton, and on July 20th, the average market price of adipic acid was 7933 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49%.
The main factors affecting the rise and fall of adipic acid market during this stage
Supply side: The industry average operating rate is below 60%; Multiple sets of main equipment underwent centralized maintenance and reduced load operation in July, resulting in a contraction of spot supply and slow depletion of social inventory. Under the loss of the factory, there is no willingness to ship in large quantities, the circulation of spot goods is limited, and low-priced sources are scarce, limiting the downward space.
Demand side: Traditional off-season in the entire industry, rigid demand procurement, no bulk replenishment (core bearish logic). The downstream of adipic acid has fully entered the traditional off-season of July and August, which is the biggest suppression of this round of market: the production of polyurethane PU synthetic leather slurry and sole stock solution factories is generally less than 50%; The orders for terminal shoes, clothing, and synthetic leather are scarce, and downstream suppliers continue to reduce raw material inventory, only maintaining daily demand for goods. The willingness to chase price increases is extremely low, and it is difficult to complete high priced orders.
Technical level prediction
Key indicator: After the 10 day moving average crossed the 20 day moving average on July 2nd, it showed an upward trend on July 18th. In late July, the average price difference of adipic acid decreased positively, indicating that the price increase of adipic acid slowed down and the probability of adipic acid falling in the future increased.
Auxiliary indicators: In late July, the price of adipic acid was at a 10 day high, a 20 day high, and a 30 day high. It also confirms to some extent that the adipic acid market was at a high level in late July and will face a downward trend at the end of the month.
In summary, the forecast for supply and demand shows that supply pressure has eased, demand is weak, and the trend of adipic acid weakening at the end of July is evident. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the upward momentum of the adipic acid market at the end of July was insufficient. Therefore, at the end of July, the overall trend of adipic acid market fluctuated and fell, with an expected price between 7500 yuan/ton and 8000 yuan/ton.