On February 27th, the average market price in East China was 431460 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.56% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 430000-435000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 431460 yuan/ton, an increase of 14980 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.
In the morning session, Shanghai tin futures showed a high volatility trend, and the near and far month basis spread continued to expand with discounts; Entering the second trading session, the market’s gains further expanded. Prices continue to rise, smelters stick to prices, and the shipment scale is relatively limited. The closing price of Shanghai tin was 453240 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35060 yuan/ton.
The long-term upward logic of tin prices is stable, mainly supported by structural constraints on the supply side. Global tin resources are concentrated in politically unstable regions such as Myanmar and Indonesia, which have been vulnerable to export restrictions, mining restructuring, and geopolitical conflicts in recent years. Recently, the Indonesian Minister of Mines stated that they are considering banning the export of various raw materials, including tin, which would significantly tighten global supply if implemented. In addition, there is a lack of large-scale new mines being put into operation globally, and high-grade ore bodies are gradually depleting, leading to an overall increase in industry mining costs.
At the spot level, prices have shown an upward trend recently, and most traders are shipping at a regular pace, while downstream buyers are showing more caution. In the short term, consumer power still needs to be further strengthened, and many market participants have limited efforts to replenish their inventory temporarily. It will take time to verify how the subsequent demand will be; From a trend perspective, stimulated by news related to the country of origin, the impact of market funding has increased, and short-term price increases are expected to continue.
Today’s market report shows that small brand products have a premium price range of 300 to 600 yuan/ton for March, while cloud products have a premium price range of approximately 600 to 900 yuan/ton for March, and cloud tin products have a premium price range of around 900 to 1200 yuan/ton for March.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China has risen three times this week (2.23-2.26). The market average price at the beginning of the week was 378420 yuan/ton, and as of February 26, the market average price was 416620 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.56%.
With the quiet end of the Spring Festival holiday, the performance of tin prices has been particularly remarkable, achieving a strong trend of three consecutive increases in just a few days after the holiday.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, most mainstream smelting enterprises in China implemented shutdown and maintenance measures according to the established plan. Based on this situation, it is expected that the tin ingot production will decline to a certain extent that month. Despite the market’s expectation of a slow recovery in Myanmar’s mineral imports, the tightening of quota policies in Indonesia has undoubtedly created rigid constraints on tin ore supply.
supply side
There are hidden concerns on the supply side, and the market’s expectation that Indonesia may introduce a policy to ban the export of tin raw materials, coupled with the risk of tin mine supply in the Democratic Republic of Congo, further exacerbates the market’s worries about the tightening of tin supply.
demand side
After the holiday, traders and downstream industries such as solder, electronics, and photovoltaics will gradually resume work and production. In this situation, the market’s rigid demand for procurement is expected to gradually rebound. However, given that tin prices are still at historically high levels, this may continue to have a restraining effect on downstream companies’ willingness to stock up and procurement efforts, and the process of demand recovery may be relatively slow.
In the spot market, the current circulation of spot goods is relatively limited, and prices generally show a rising trend. Among the downstream solder enterprises, most are still in a holiday state, and only some have resumed work. However, they are still in the final stage of equipment debugging and have not yet fully started actual production. Those enterprises that have resumed production are mostly consuming inventory before the Spring Festival, prioritizing the processing of pre holiday orders, and have a very low willingness to meet new procurement needs.
comprehensive analysis
Short term tin prices are expected to maintain high volatility, and the market needs to closely monitor the actual resumption pace of downstream enterprises after the holiday, the strong demand for replenishment, and the specific implementation of Indonesia’s export policies.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province rose this week (2.12-2.25), with an average market price of 16450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16550 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.61%.
Compared to before the holiday, the price of Fugu magnesium ingots showed a slight upward trend, and after the holiday, the magnesium market as a whole showed a pattern of “stable prices trending upwards, and a quiet trading atmosphere”. The pace of downstream enterprises resuming work is relatively slow, and the market is filled with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Although there has been an increase in market inquiry activities, the actual purchasing willingness is relatively low, and there is no obvious sign of recovery in terminal demand.
supply side
Although inventory has accumulated to a certain extent during the holiday period, manufacturers’ willingness to ship at low prices is not strong, and quotations remain firm. Processing costs for some magnesium alloys have also slightly increased.
Demand side:
The demand side is in a “gradual recovery” state, and most enterprises are mainly digesting their previous inventory. The inquiry and trading atmosphere is relatively low, and the game between supply and demand is in a stalemate. The magnesium market is temporarily maintaining a stable operating trend.
Cost side:
Although the price of 75% silicon iron in Fugu area remained stable compared to before the holiday, the overall market showed a weak trend after the holiday. The futures market has been weak and volatile, with prices falling to a recent low. As a result, spot prices have also been lowered. The price of Fugu blue charcoal is currently running steadily, but the market is facing downward pressure after the holiday. It is expected that the Fugu blue charcoal market will continue to show a weak trend in the short term, and the price may continue to maintain a stable to weak trend.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to fluctuate within a range and steadily rise in the short term. The subsequent market needs to closely monitor the dynamic adjustment of supply and demand, the resumption of work and production by downstream enterprises, and the fluctuations in raw material prices.

On February 24th, the domestic natural rubber market welcomed its first trading day after the Spring Festival. The main Shanghai rubber contract opened high and rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 17030 yuan/ton, up 4.38% from the closing price of 16315 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the holiday.
The spot market has rebounded synchronously, with prices for Thai cigarettes and standard rubber increasing. Domestic spot prices for all latex follow the upward trend of futures, and traders are actively quoting. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of February 24th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16833 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% from the pre holiday price.
External market strengthens, supply side contracts, igniting post holiday uptrend
On the one hand, during the Spring Festival holiday, Tokyo rubber futures have risen by about 3%, and the prices of Thai raw materials such as glue and cup glue have also increased. As of February 24th, the price of Thai glue was 67.00 baht/kg, an increase of 9.84% from the pre holiday price of 61.00 baht/kg. On the other hand, major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia are gradually entering a low yield season, coupled with local rainfall affecting rubber production, resulting in a lower year-on-year output of raw materials. The domestic production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in a winter cutting period, with a shortage of domestic rubber supply and an overall tight supply pattern in the market.
In addition, the domestic macro atmosphere is relatively warm, and there is a strong demand for repairing the valuation of natural rubber. The resonance of emotions between the natural rubber spot market and the futures market has driven up the price of natural rubber significantly.
Future outlook:
The natural rubber analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current seasonal tightening of supply and strong support from external markets will maintain high natural rubber prices in the short term. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the speed of downstream tire companies’ resumption of production and the intensity of Tianjiao’s inventory destocking.

This week, the melamine market has indeed shown a pattern of “stability oriented, narrow upward trend”. As of February 11th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10% compared to the beginning of this month (5675.00 yuan/ton).
1、 Market dynamics
The recent stability of the market is mainly due to the balance of three factors: cost, supply, and demand
1. Cost side: The price of raw material urea increased in January, providing rigid cost support for melamine and limiting the downward space of prices.
2. Supply side: Although the devices that were previously repaired have gradually resumed production and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded, there has not yet been a serious oversupply pressure, and the market supply and demand are in a weak balance state.
3. Demand side: Downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have a slow pace of resuming work, and often adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement. The large-scale pre holiday stocking wave has not appeared significantly. At the same time, the export market performed steadily, but failed to provide an unexpected boost.
2、 Short term outlook for the future market
Overall, during the period before the Spring Festival, the melamine market is expected to continue to maintain a fluctuating trend. The solid cost bottom line and the strong willingness of production enterprises to stabilize prices determine that prices are difficult to fall deeply in the short term. The weak domestic demand and the lack of strong export drivers have also suppressed the potential for significant price increases.
The choice of the next direction for the market will mainly depend on factors such as the intensity of downstream resumption of work and replenishment after the holiday, as well as whether export orders can significantly improve.