According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ABS market experienced a strong upward trend in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 12766.67 yuan/ton, with a price level increase of 43.02% compared to the beginning of the month. The spot prices of most grades have increased significantly.
Supply: Stable after load increase, supply shifts from tight balance to abundant
The operating rate of the domestic ABS industry showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing in March. By the end of the month, the overall operating rate of the industry remained at around 69%, with an average weekly output of about 135000 tons and a finished product inventory of about 180000 tons. In the short term, production fluctuations are limited, and market supply is transitioning from tight balance to ample supply, with relatively moderate support from the supply side for prices.
Cost: Upstream three materials all rise, raw material support continues to increase
The cost side became the core driving force behind the rise of ABS in March. International oil prices continue to rise due to the volatile situation in the Middle East and the firm stance of OPEC+on production cuts, providing cost support for petrochemical products.
Acrylonitrile: Port arrivals have decreased within the month, domestic spot inventory has been smoothly cleared, and there have even been export windows in some areas. Supplier quotations have remained firm and upward, with significant market growth.
Butadiene: Prices are rising in a stepwise manner. Supported by tight import supply and stable downstream demand, merchants have a strong willingness to raise prices. However, downstream butadiene rubber enterprises are facing cost pressure, and some units are reducing their load, which may constrain the subsequent increase in butadiene prices.
Styrene: The market first rose and then consolidated. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates widely with crude oil, and although downstream growth is weak, the expected negative load reduction of foreign facilities in the second half of the month will provide support for pure benzene. Currently, the cost of styrene is high, downstream production has decreased month on month, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to maintain a high level of operation in the short term.
Requirement: Insufficient terminal follow-up, market trading returns to rationality
The downstream ABS enterprises did not start production as expected in March, and the consumption performance of the main terminal electrical shell industry was flat, with limited improvement in corporate profits. With the rapid rise in prices, the market’s pursuit of price increases has gradually cooled down, and there has been a reduction in replenishment and warehouse building operations. As the end of the month approaches, some merchants are offering discounts to fulfill their tasks, causing a certain drag on the price center of gravity. At present, the inventory level of ABS finished products is moderate, but downstream resistance to high priced goods is gradually emerging, and the overall support of the demand side for the market is weak.
Market outlook: Strong cost and weak demand game, short-term gains may be limited
The current ABS market is still in a game stage of strong cost driven and weak demand reality. The supply side has limited changes, and the market supply is relatively abundant; The prices of upstream three materials remain high, and cost support remains solid. However, spot prices have reached a temporary high, and downstream capacity is average. Trading is gradually returning to the dominance of supply and demand fundamentals.
Technical analysis
Analysts believe that according to the Business Society Spot News, the current ABS 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average, and all recent moving averages are higher than the distant moving averages, indicating that spot prices are likely to continue a positive trend in the short term. However, auxiliary indicators show that ABS prices in all five levels are at high or medium high levels, indicating that the future increase in ABS prices may be limited. It is recommended to closely monitor the international crude oil and Middle East shipping situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level in March 2026, with an average price of 16655 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16425 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 1.38%.
On March 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 99.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.50% from the highest point of 134.01 points (November 29, 2016) during the cycle, and an increase of 33.78% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
In March, lead prices showed a pattern of “low volatility, bottom and top”, with core fluctuations revolving around “macro suppression+supply and demand game+new regulations for delivery of recycled lead futures”.
Macro factors
On a macro level, there is a clear trend of suppression, with the US dollar index rising four times to near the 100 mark, reaching a new high in nearly April. For lead prices, the strong US dollar directly suppresses them, while the demand for commodity preservation driven by inflation concerns provides a small amount of support. Under the long short game, the overall price is under pressure to decline.
supply side
In March, the domestic production rate of primary lead gradually recovered, but due to restrictions on the supply of lead concentrate, the processing fees for lead concentrate remained low, which constrained the release of primary lead production capacity; Recycled lead enterprises have maintained low production levels due to losses, coupled with the implementation of the new national standard for recycled lead on March 1st, which has pushed up production costs. The growth of recycled lead supply is weak, and the overall supply side shows a pattern of “recovery but limited”, without forming obvious supply pressure, but also unable to support price increases.
Starting from March 17th, recycled lead ingots will be included in lead futures delivery as a substitute (PB2703 contract will be implemented), with a discount of 150 yuan/ton on standard products. This policy has a significant impact on lead prices this month and has become the core driving force behind the accelerated decline in the medium term. In the short term, the expansion of delivery products has led to a shift in market pricing logic towards a combination of “native+renewable” pricing. The cheapest delivery product dominates the lower limit of lead prices, directly suppressing the central prices of futures and spot prices, resulting in an accelerated decline in prices after March 17th; In the medium to long term, the inclusion of recycled lead in delivery has solved the problem of mismatched hedging standards for recycled lead enterprises, improved industry transparency, and at the same time, the cost of recycled lead will provide stronger bottom support for lead prices, smoothing price fluctuations and reducing the occurrence of extreme market conditions.
Demand side
The operating rate of lead-acid batteries remains relatively high, mainly supported by the demand for stock replacement. However, the traditional off-season for consumption in the second quarter is approaching, and downstream enterprises only maintain on-demand procurement at low prices, without the willingness to concentrate on stocking up. Insufficient incremental demand has become the main constraint on price increases.
Inventory end
The inventory side is showing a trend of “continuous depletion”, providing key bottom support for lead prices and easing the mid-term decline. In March, the social inventory of domestic lead ingots gradually decreased, with a significant decline in the inventory of primary lead factories. The reluctance of holders to sell increased, providing some support for spot prices.
Prediction of future trends
Looking ahead to April, the arrival of the traditional off-season for consumption will tilt the balance towards the demand side, and there is a risk of a slight downward shift in the price center. However, with the support of rigid costs, the downward space for lead prices is limited, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend.

Precious metal prices fall in March
As of March 30, 2026, the early market price of gold spot was 1005.93 yuan/gram, a decrease of 12.14% compared to the gold spot market price of 1144.88 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (March 1).
On the 30th, the gold price slightly rebounded within the day. In terms of spot trading:
On March 30, 2026, Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted a benchmark price of 1011.43 yuan/gram for Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) at noon; The benchmark price for the earlier session was 999.56 yuan/gram, an increase of 11.87 yuan/gram (1.19%); Compared to the benchmark price of 995.34 yuan/gram at noon on the previous trading day (3.27), it has increased by 16.09 yuan/gram (1.62%).
In terms of futures:
The main contract of Shanghai Gold on March 30, 2026, opened at 993.46 yuan/gram and closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram, up 2.28% from yesterday’s settlement price of 992.24 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the rebound of precious metal gold on March 30, 2026
On March 30, 2026, precious metal gold slightly rebounded and rose, which was the result of the correction of expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the bottoming out of central bank gold purchases, fluctuating geopolitical risk aversion, and a technical oversold rebound. Here are the specific reasons:
1. Pricing of Federal Reserve Rate Reduction Expectations
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting released a super hawkish signal, maintaining high interest rates of 3.5% -3.75%, reducing the expected annual rate cuts from three to one, and delaying the first rate cut until September. US bond yields soared, the US dollar strengthened, and gold prices plummeted. In late March, the US CPI and non farm payroll data fell short of expectations, and the market re priced the path of interest rate cuts. CME data shows that the probability of the first interest rate cut in September has rebounded to 75%, and the expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates has resumed. Funds are flowing back to gold from the US dollar and US Treasury bonds.
The slight rebound of precious metal gold on June 30, 2026 is a repair to the expectation of “delayed but not cancelled interest rate cuts”.
2. Strong Fundamental Support: Global Central Banks Continue to Purchase Gold (Bottom Support)
The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for 16 consecutive months, and its reserve scale continues to expand; Global central banks are expected to purchase a net of 863 tons of gold in 2025, and it is expected to remain at a high level (about 755 tons) in 2026. Poland and other countries will increase their holdings significantly, forming a “national level buying market” and greatly reducing the potential for a deep decline in gold prices.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province rose this week (3.23-3.27), with an average market price of 16950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17050 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.59%.
The domestic magnesium ingot market has emerged from a volatile upward trend and stabilized at a high level, with an overall strong market trend and a steady upward shift in price focus, without a significant correction. The main reasons for the fluctuation of magnesium prices in this round are the rise in raw material costs, supply side control of quantity and price, and the result of multi-party games to maintain demand stability.
supply side
This week, the domestic magnesium ingot supply side performed steadily, and the operating rate in the main production areas remained stable, without large-scale resumption or reduction of production. In terms of inventory, it is at a historical low during the same period, with both internal and external inventory being relatively low, and there is a scarcity of available spot goods. Affected by cost pressure, manufacturers have a strong mentality of holding back prices and being reluctant to sell. Top companies have clearly refused to sell at low prices and prioritized the execution of long-term orders in the early stage. The spot market has limited investment, and low-priced sources continue to dry up. The tightening of the supply side has provided strong support for prices.
Demand side:
This week, the demand for magnesium ingots has shown moderate performance, with the overall focus on rigid procurement. There has been no large-scale replenishment or centralized procurement, which is also the main reason for the slowdown in the rise of magnesium prices and the high-level stalemate. The export orders for magnesium ingots have remained stable with no significant increase, and the demand from overseas markets has limited impact on the domestic market. Overall, the demand side is not lagging behind but has not shown any outstanding performance, and the forces of supply and demand are tending towards balance, forming a high-level stalemate pattern.
Cost side:
Ferrosilicon, as the core reducing agent in magnesium smelting, accounts for over 30% of the production cost. This week, the price of 72 # ferrosilicon is running strong. The current price increase of ferrosilicon is mainly affected by disturbances in overseas mineral supply. The Australian typhoon caused the suspension of manganese ore shipments, driving the overall strength of the ferroalloy sector. In addition, the low operating rate of domestic ferrosilicon manufacturers and tight spot supply provide strong cost support for magnesium prices. The prices of blue charcoal and coal have risen simultaneously, further pushing up the cost of smelting. Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the rise in international oil prices, the demand for coal substitution has increased, and domestic prices of blue charcoal and thermal coal have remained stable and strengthened.
comprehensive analysis
Based on the two core factors of comprehensive cost and supply and demand, it is difficult for domestic magnesium prices to experience significant fluctuations in the short term, and it is highly likely to maintain a high volatility trend We need to pay close attention to the price trends of raw materials such as ferrosilicon and coal in the future. If the raw materials continue to strengthen, magnesium prices are expected to break through the current range.

At the end of March, the domestic ABS market was operating at a high level, with some spot prices of certain grades fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12000 yuan/ton, with a price level increase of 34.43% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In the second half of the month, the domestic ABS industry will restart and undergo maintenance, with overall limited load changes. The overall operating level of the industry is around 69%, with an average weekly output of nearly 150000 tons, and finished product inventory levels have rebounded to 200000 tons. After the addition, there will be little change in the short-term production of the market, and the on-site supply will shift from tight balance to abundant. Overall, the support for spot prices from the ABS supply side is stable but weak.
Cost factor: In late March, the volatile situation in the Middle East continued to raise concerns among industry players. And some countries have significantly reduced their crude oil production due to force majeure. Combined with the firm stance of OPEC+production cuts, international oil prices have been fluctuating at high levels recently. The upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the same petrochemical products, have basically increased at a high level. The price increase of acrylonitrile in the market has further expanded. Due to the decrease in port arrivals, domestic spot sales have been smooth, and even partial export windows have emerged. The main supplier’s quotation has remained firm and increased.