After the high platform volatility of silver prices at the end of December 2025, prices surged violently in January. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market price on January 28, 2026 was 29184.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 57.93% from the peak spot price of 18480 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (1.3).
The surge in silver today is driven by a triple resonance of financial attributes, supply-demand gap, and funding and technical aspects. The core is the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations, the outbreak of industrial demand, and the amplification of low inventory elasticity. as follows:
1、 Financial attributes: macro and hedging resonance
Expectations of interest rate cuts and weakening of the US dollar: US inflation and employment data have cooled down, and the market is betting that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June will rise to 70%. The decline in real interest rates will lower the cost of holding precious metals; The US dollar index fell below 96 (a new low in nearly four years), and the attractiveness of silver denominated in US dollars increased, forming a double click of “interest rate cuts+US dollar depreciation”.
Gold linkage and gold to silver ratio repair: London gold has now broken through $5290/ounce, and the gold to silver ratio has dropped to 45.5 (the lowest level in nearly 13 years). Silver has sufficient momentum for replenishment, and funds have flooded into silver through the spillover effect of the gold bull market.
Geopolitics and risk aversion are heating up: The situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea crisis continue, and the risk of a US government shutdown is increasing. Investors are increasing their allocation of precious metals as a safe haven, driving up demand for allocation.
2、 Supply and demand fundamentals: structural gap continues to widen
1. Rigid constraints on the supply side
Starting from January 1st, China will implement a “single review” control on silver exports, reducing global supply by 4500-5000 tons (accounting for 60% -70% of global trade volume).
72% of silver comes from copper zinc associated mines, with an independent expansion cycle of 5-10 years. Mineral silver is expected to decrease by 0.6% year-on-year in 2026, marking the fifth consecutive year of decline.
Extremely low inventory: LBMA deliverable inventory is only 233 tons, COMEX inventory has decreased by 70% year-on-year, and global explicit inventory only covers 1.2 months of consumption, with tight spot supply supporting premium.
2. Explosive growth on the demand side
Photovoltaic: The global installed capacity is expected to reach 600GW by 2026, and the penetration of N-type batteries will increase silver consumption to 210 million ounces, accounting for 34% -55% of industrial demand. Domestic replenishment orders are scheduled until mid February.
AI and New Energy: Silver used for packaging AI server chips increased by 35% year-on-year, silver used for power batteries in new energy vehicles increased by 28% annually, and “silver for copper” added 300000 to 500000 tons of replacement demand.
The supply-demand gap is widening: The global gap is expected to reach 203 million ounces (approximately 6316 tons) by 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of shortage.
3、 Financial and technical aspects: emotional and financial resonance
Accelerated capital inflow: Silver ETF increased its holdings by 210 tons in January, with multiple positions in the futures market reaching a historic high, and speculative funds taking advantage of the situation to chase higher prices.
Technical strengthening trend: Long positions on the daily chart, Bollinger Bands opening upwards, prices moving along the upper track without significant deviation, triggering trend tracking funds to enter the market.
Futures and spot structure support: spot premiums continue to rise, with futures leading the gains and spot prices rebounding. Low inventory amplifies price elasticity, making short-term gains difficult to fall.

Recently (1.1-1.27), the domestic EVA market has seen a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 27th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 10150 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.92% from 9766 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Downstream factories replenish raw materials before the holiday, and demand for EVA has certain support; Domestic EVA equipment is operating at a high level and the supply is loose; The price of raw material vinyl acetate has slightly increased, and the cost support of EVA continues.
Recently (1.1-1.27), EVA production has reached a high of around 90%, indicating that the supply pressure in the EVA market still exists. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene slightly decreased and the price of vinyl acetate slightly increased, indicating that the cost of EVA still has support. As of January 27th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 5750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from 6150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of January 27th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 5925 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.45% from 5875 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (1.1-1.27), the downstream photovoltaic and foam industries have seen a surge in demand for restocking before the Spring Festival. EVA has been selling smoothly in the early stages, and as the end of the month approaches, downstream restocking is gradually coming to an end. Market inquiries are mainly for essential needs, and EVA demand has returned to a weak position. At the end of the month, the EVA market saw a narrow consolidation.
Future forecast: Overall, EVA cost support will continue, but as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream photovoltaic and foam industry demand weakens, coupled with high EVA plant production, the overall EVA fundamentals are stable but slightly weak. It is expected that the weak EVA spot market before the holiday will be the main reason for consolidation.

Recently (1.1-1.26), the market for styrene butadiene rubber has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 26th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 12883 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.30% from 11575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene have significantly increased, which greatly supports the cost of styrene butadiene rubber. Downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing support for the demand for styrene butadiene rubber; The production of styrene butadiene rubber has slightly increased, and the market trend has risen significantly driven by costs, but downstream inquiries are slightly cautious. As of January 26th, the mainstream market price of 1502 styrene butadiene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China is around 12750-13050 yuan/ton.
Recently (1.1-1.26), the prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene have significantly increased, supported by the strong cost of styrene butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 26th, the price of butadiene was 10733 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.80% from 8333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of January 26th, the price of styrene was 7754 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.70% from 6760 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Recently (1.1-1.26), the construction of domestic styrene butadiene rubber plants has slightly increased to around 8.30%.
Supply and demand side: Since early January (1.1-1.26), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing essential support for the styrene butadiene rubber market. As of January 26th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has increased from 6.7% at the beginning of the month to around 7.5%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has increased from 5.8% at the beginning of the month to about 6.3%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current cost support for styrene butadiene rubber is strong, and the overall supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber market will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 149416 yuan/ton, up 2.05% from the beginning of the week and up 18.96% year-on-year.
Nickel weekly fluctuation chart
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 4 times and risen 8 times in the past 12 weeks, with the recent high volatility of nickel prices being the main trend.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, employment and inflation in the United States continue to slow down, but some areas have improved under the boost of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. There are still differences in the Federal Reserve’s future inflation targets for measuring employment, and it tends to be cautious in the short term.
On the supply side, the impact of production cuts is weakened, and refined nickel production is increasing. The overall market spot supply is relatively sufficient. In December, China’s refined nickel production was 31400 tons, an increase of 21.7% compared to the previous month.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with better demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. The demand for stainless steel is generally low, and the clearance of social inventory is slow. The improvement of steel mill profits may increase supply pressure, and spot transactions are still cautious. In terms of nickel sulfate, downstream ternary production decreased slightly after the end of the peak season reserve period, and there were constraints on the production of new capacity in the medium term. Recently, prices have fallen.
In summary, benefiting from the increase in stainless steel production and the expected improvement in demand for new energy battery materials, coupled with potential disruptions in overseas supply, the risk appetite brought about by the rebound of the US stock market has further boosted prices. However, the pressure of high global explicit nickel inventories has not dissipated, restricting the rebound space, and nickel prices are showing a fluctuating upward trend. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate strongly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on January 22, 2025, the reference ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was 6550 yuan/ton. Compared with January 13, the price increased by 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.97%; Compared with January 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 6387 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 163 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.15%.
In late January, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong steadily rose and operated
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in late January, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province saw a steady upward trend. The focus of cyclohexanone negotiations was continuously raised, with a cumulative increase of 200-300 yuan/ton in price, which remained stable after reaching the high point of the month. On January 22nd, the market price reference for cyclohexanone in Shandong was around 6550-6600 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
In terms of cost: In late January, the pure benzene market for cyclohexanone raw materials continued to rise, gradually increasing the cost support for cyclohexanone. Driven by cost, cyclohexanone prices have been approaching high levels one after another.
In terms of demand: Recently, downstream demand for cyclohexanone has mostly been based on on-demand procurement, and the demand side has shown relatively stable performance. As the Spring Festival approaches, the overall market support from the downstream demand side is expected to improve.
Supply side: The supply side of cyclohexanone has tightened narrowly, and some cyclohexanone units in Shandong have entered the maintenance cycle. The pressure on spot supply is not high, and the supply side has given the market some upward momentum.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is mild, and it is expected that there will be a certain demand for replenishment before the holiday. Coupled with cost support, the cyclohexanone data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that the cyclohexanone price will remain fluctuating in the range of 6500-6600 yuan/ton in the short term, and the possibility of significant fluctuations is relatively small. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news.