1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices experienced a unilateral downward trend in June. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 104911.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 101625 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 3.13% and a year-on-year increase of 28.82%.
The copper spot price in June was higher than the main contract price. As the end of the month approaches, the main composite price of copper is higher than the spot price of copper, indicating that copper prices will be under pressure in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fell significantly in June. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 336475 tons, a decrease of 12.84% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the core PCE of the United States rose to 3.4% year-on-year in May, and the overall PCE reached 4.1%, a new high in nearly two years. The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has reignited, and the probability of a rate hike in September has exceeded 50%. The European and Japanese central banks tightened slightly simultaneously, and the US dollar index continued to strengthen, which significantly suppressed the financial properties of copper. However, the temporary agreement between the United States and Iran has eased oil prices and partially eased inflationary pressures, and there is a marginal possibility of easing macroeconomic bearish sentiment.
Supply side: Copper concentrate processing fee TC has fallen to a historical low of -120.7 US dollars/ton, and the shortage in the mining side continues to intensify. During the June smelting maintenance season, high sulfuric acid prices supported smelting profits. The estimated production of electrolytic copper was 1.1684 million tons, a decrease of only 0.09% compared to the previous month, but still an increase of 2.95% year-on-year. Wet smelting is approaching the breakeven line, and if sulfuric acid falls back in the future, the risk of production reduction at the smelting end will significantly increase.
Downstream: After copper prices fell, downstream prices became active, and the operating rate of refined copper rods increased by 1.6 percentage points month on month, exceeding expectations and rebounding. Electricity infrastructure investment maintains double-digit growth and remains the core pillar of demand. However, copper used in construction continues to shrink, and the home appliances and new energy sectors have shown weak performance due to previous overdrafts. Terminal consumption presents a pattern of “resilient demand but weak ability to chase growth”.
Comprehensive analysis of influencing factors
The US 232 copper tariff policy will be announced before the end of June, which is the biggest uncertainty variable of this month. Driven by expectations, COMEX inventory has risen to over 650000 tons, while LME inventory has dropped to around 350000 tons. The divergence in inventory trends between the two regions has become the most prominent feature of the market. The domestic social inventory is slowly decreasing to around 210000 tons, and the overall situation is in a destocking channel.
In summary, if the 232 tariff is ultimately implemented, copper prices are expected to once again hit above $14000 per ton; If the policy falls short of expectations, closing arbitrage positions may trigger a pullback. Short term copper prices are fluctuating and bottoming out around 100000 yuan/ton, with macro interest rate pressures and supply constraints from the mining sector playing against each other. In the medium to long term, the weakening of supply elasticity and the growth of structural demand coexist, and the copper price center is expected to maintain a high level of operation.

At the end of June, the domestic PS market was weak and had a decline, with most spot prices of certain brands experiencing significant drops. According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, as of June 25th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s PS was 9483.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.82% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Cost factor: In the second half of June, the international crude oil market experienced a significant downturn. The oil price premium caused by geopolitical conflicts quickly cleared, and multiple price indicators hit temporary lows. Affected by it, the price of pure benzene fell and then consolidated. At the same time, the restart of domestic styrene plants will be more concentrated in the latter half of the year, and the supply will increase. With the gradual opening of waterways, the tight supply of overseas styrene has been simultaneously alleviated. The price of styrene has fallen, and downstream profits have recovered to some extent, but the release of factory inventory is slow, and the procurement of essential needs is the main focus, with limited demand pull. The overall cost support for PS is poor.
Supply and demand level: Recently, the domestic PS industry has experienced significant stability and small fluctuations. The domestic operating rate has been consistently low for a long time, and some of the facilities have been scheduled for maintenance in the early stages. Currently, the overall load in China is around 50%. Although the inventory position is relatively controllable, it is currently in the traditional off-season market, and downstream product factories such as electrical appliances and packaging are digesting slowly, resulting in weak demand for goods in the market. After the addition, there is still an expectation of reduced production volume for terminal enterprises in the city, and the current PS is still in a weak supply-demand pattern.
post-market forecast
At the end of June, the domestic PS market continued its downward trend. The production load of the aggregation plant is maintained at a low level, and consumer demand is at a low season level. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that crude oil, a remote raw material, has experienced a sharp decline, causing significant price drops for upstream raw materials in the industry chain. Under the collapse of costs, PS spot prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise. It is expected that the PS market will continue to follow the decline of raw materials in the short term.

In June 2026, the domestic EVA market as a whole showed a weak consolidation trend, with limited fluctuations and cautious trading overall. As of June 23rd, the benchmark price of EVA was 9833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32% from 10066 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the market continued the weak pattern of May, with prices slightly falling. In the middle of the month, prices rose slightly supported by favorable equipment maintenance, and at the end of the month, prices fell slightly again due to the impact of lower crude oil prices. The industry as a whole is in a weak consolidation stage.
In June, the domestic EVA plant started and stopped alternately, and Yanshan Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, and Quanzhou Petrochemical completed a full month shutdown for major repairs in June; Selbon’s tubular production has been converted to LDPE; Expected maintenance of Hongjing New Materials by the end of June; Yulong Petrochemical will switch back to EVA in mid to late June. In the early stage, the low level of production was around 7.30%, and the spot market was tight. In the later stage, some production capacity was released, and the industry started operating at 7.8-8.0%. Coupled with the accumulation of enterprise inventory in the early stage, the circulation of foam grade EVA spot was relatively slow, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient, making it difficult to support a significant increase in prices.
In June, it was the off-season for traditional downstream consumption, with sluggish terminal orders in general fields such as foam and cables. Downstream enterprises mostly purchased according to their needs, resulting in a low willingness to stock up and sluggish market transactions. The only positive news comes from the photovoltaic field, where the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity remains stable, providing rigid support for photovoltaic grade EVA, but not enough to drive the overall market recovery.
International crude oil prices fluctuate at a low level, causing the cost center of EVA raw materials to shift downwards, and the industry’s cost support is relatively weak. Market operators have obvious differences in mentality, with some traders selling goods at low prices to recoup funds, while the demand for low-level speculative replenishment has slightly emerged, exacerbating market volatility.
The Business Society EVA spread chart shows that in early June, the spread fell to a deep negative value of nearly -500, with the market dominated by bears. Subsequently, the moving average continued to recover unilaterally and gradually released bearish pressure, hitting near the zero axis on June 19th. In late June, the average price difference slightly fell back, returning to the negative range, and the upward momentum weakened.
Looking ahead to the future, the short-term EVA market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The continuous game between the addition of new production capacity and equipment maintenance on the supply side makes it difficult to change the loose supply and demand pattern; The off-season effect on the demand side will continue, with limited incremental demand. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuation in EVA prices in the short term, and the price of foam materials will remain within a range of fluctuations. Photovoltaic grade EVA is relatively resistant to decline based on rigid demand.

1、 Price trend: rising and falling, narrow range sideways at low levels
This week, the spot price of melamine showed an overall pattern of stable before falling and stabilizing at a low level. As of June 23rd, the benchmark price was 6075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% compared to the beginning of this month (6125.00 yuan/ton).
The price line runs closely below the 10 day and 20 day moving averages; Since June 16th, spot prices have started to decline, gradually dropping from 6080 yuan/ton to 6075 yuan/ton. After June 18th, the market completely flattened and remained stable at 6075 yuan/ton for five consecutive days, with the largest weekly drop of only 0.12%. The end of the week trading fell into a narrow consolidation.
From the perspective of the moving average system, the 10 day moving average (red line) continues to be below the 20 day moving average (blue line), and both moving averages continue to tilt downward synchronously. The business social average (10 day moving average -20 day moving average) maintains a negative range for a long time, belonging to a typical negative range operation. The short-term average difference continues to narrow, and a negative signal of narrowing appears, indicating that the previous downward momentum is gradually weakening, the speed of price decline is slowing down, and the short-term downward space is limited.
2、 Cycle Position Indicator: The entire cycle is in the low price range
According to the position data of spot market, as of June 22, the spot price of melamine is marked as low in the one-year dimension, and the price range of the whole cycle is in the bottom range. The current spot price is 6075 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 0.82% from 6125 yuan/ton at the beginning of June. The price has fallen to the cost support level in the near stage, and the deep pullback space below has been greatly compressed. This is the core support logic for this week’s market to stop falling sideways.
3、 Analysis of Upstream and Downstream Cost Confrontation
The raw material side of urea has experienced a reverse market trend. As of June 23, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1838.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% from 1820 yuan/ton at the beginning of June. The cost of raw materials has slightly increased, forming a bottom support for the price of melamine; However, the downstream demand for sheet metal and impregnated paper industries is in the traditional off-season, and there is a shortage of essential demand for terminal procurement. The pressure on manufacturers to sell goods is difficult to release, and cost support cannot be converted into a driving force for price increases. Under the game of long and short, the market can only maintain a low price stalemate.
4、 Trend signals and future predictions
1. The moving average remains negative but the difference continues to narrow (in a negative direction), and the downward momentum continues to weaken. Coupled with the support of low prices throughout the cycle, short-term spot prices are likely to continue to fluctuate narrowly around 6075 yuan/ton, and the sharp decline in the market is basically over; 2. The weak demand in the downstream off-season is the core suppression. Even if the cost of urea slightly increases, traders and factories do not have the confidence to actively raise prices, and there is a lack of sustained upward driving force in the short term;
3. It is necessary to track the changes in the moving average in the future. If the 10 day moving average breaks through the 20 day moving average and the moving average turns from negative to positive, it will release a signal for the price to stop falling and rebound; If the negative difference widens again, the low-level consolidation market will be prolonged.
5、 Summary
This week, the spot price of melamine fell slightly due to the off-season demand, relying on the slight increase in raw material urea to form cost support. Coupled with the low price throughout the cycle and the negative narrowing of the moving average signal to stop the decline, the market shifted from a unilateral decline to a low narrow range consolidation stage. The long and short forces are relatively balanced, and the short-term market is unlikely to have significant fluctuations. The overall situation is mainly characterized by a wait-and-see stalemate.

From June 15th to 22nd, the domestic BDO price dropped from 7933 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.05% during the period, a month on month drop of 6.59%, and a year-on-year drop of 7.80%. Recently, with multiple device maintenance and load reduction measures, there has been an increase in favorable conditions for the supply side, supporting the stability of the market for suppliers. However, due to weak follow-up of terminal demand and poor cost transmission, downstream industries are often struggling to negotiate raw material prices. The BDO market supply and demand negotiation game has led to another decline in the market.
On the supply side, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has declined to below 50%, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply of goods. The trend of the raw material side is relatively strong, and the profit loss is intensifying. And the premium transaction of online bidding supports the stable market mentality of suppliers. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of cost and calcium carbide, the domestic price of calcium carbide has hit bottom and rebounded. As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, downstream stocking enthusiasm has increased. In order to alleviate the pressure on transportation capacity, the waiting for unloading and storage has been strengthened, and the overall market has entered the stage of destocking. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol has significantly declined, and the easing of geopolitical conflicts has led to an increase in future import expectations. Coupled with weak spot fundamentals, prices have plummeted sharply, and downstream buyers are cautious and cautious in their attitude of buying up rather than buying down, resulting in a poor market trading atmosphere. The raw material calcium carbide market is on the rise, while the methanol market is plummeting, and the impact of BDO cost is mixed.
On the demand side and downstream side, the performance of terminal demand is sluggish, and downstream industries are offering discounts for shipments. The market is fluctuating and falling, and there is a bargaining sentiment towards raw material inventory. Under the pressure of supply and demand, downstream industries experience a decrease in load, resulting in a reduction in the amount of raw material digestion. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: Strong operation of raw material calcium carbide, low-level oscillation of methanol, and reduced cost pressure on BDO; The downstream PTMEG and PBT industries have experienced a decline in production and a decrease in demand. Overall, Business Society’s BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will remain stagnant after a downturn.