From May 18th to May 26th, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose, with an initial market average price of 414640 yuan/ton. As of May 26th, the market average price was 424170 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30.
The tin price has gone through a V-shaped reversal of “rapid bottoming out, daily surge, and high-level consolidation”, and has risen back to 424000 yuan/ton. Under the background of low inventory, price elasticity has significantly increased due to the resonance of the triple supply shock caused by the interruption of external transportation from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the obstruction of resuming production during the rainy season in Myanmar, and the expected tax reform in Indonesia.
From the perspective of supply and demand analysis, the “three consecutive strikes” of supply and demand have a moderate degree of rigidity and resilience
The supply side has become the core engine of this round of price increase:
The public health incident in the Democratic Republic of Congo resulted in the cut-off of the Bisie tin mine’s external transportation channel (accounting for about 6.6% of global supply), and the resumption time is unknown;
After the rainy season and earthquake, the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar only reached 40% -50% of the pre mining ban level, and imports in April decreased by another 22% month on month;
Indonesia’s exports plummeted by 54% year-on-year in April, and the royalty tax rate is planned to be raised from 10% to 20%, further suppressing exports.
The demand side presents a rigid bottom support: the demand for solder materials for new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI servers is steadily increasing, but the premium for spot goods above 425000 yuan/ton has narrowed, and downstream processing enterprises are once again afraid of high prices. The high price suppression effect cannot be ignored.
In terms of inventory, the global explicit inventory is at a historical low (8693 tons on the previous exchange, 8195 tons on LME), and the combination of “low inventory+supply disturbance” amplifies the upward price elasticity.
comprehensive analysis
Short term supply disturbances are difficult to solve, and tin prices are expected to operate strongly in the range of 415000 to 435000 yuan/ton. We need to closely monitor the progress of border recovery in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the actual impact of the rainy season in Myanmar. In the medium term, the global tin reserve production ratio is only 20.7 years, and the underlying logic of price center upward shift remains unchanged due to the scarcity of resources and the increasing demand for AI computing power. However, caution should be exercised: if Myanmar’s resumption of production accelerates beyond expectations or downstream consumption shows a significant decline, there is a possibility that tin prices may fall back to the 400000 yuan mark.

On May 25th, the international crude oil market experienced severe fluctuations, with oil prices plummeting by over 7% in a single day, setting a rare recent decline. Among them, Brent crude oil futures fell by $7.26, a decrease of 7.02%, with a settlement price of $96.14 per barrel; US WTI crude oil futures fell $6.30, or 6.52%, to $90.30 per barrel. The core driving force behind this sharp decline is the market’s optimistic expectations of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Although both sides downplay the expectation of a breakthrough and there is still a delay in actual supply recovery, the concentration of geopolitical risk premiums has directly triggered a significant rebound in oil prices.
PTA prices have fallen along with the cost side, and the market negotiation atmosphere is average, with traders mainly engaged in negotiations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price in East China on May 26th was 6160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% from the previous trading day. From the perspective of its own supply side, due to the continuous compression of processing profits and the limited supply of raw materials, PTA plant maintenance has increased. A 2.5 million ton plant in East China is expected to shut down unexpectedly near May 24th, with an estimated 7-10 days. As of May 21st, the PTA operating rate is around 60%, lower than the historical level of the same period. PTA has been operating at a low historical level and will further reduce inventory.
However, the off-season atmosphere in the terminal textile market is strong, with insufficient orders and downstream production on demand. The summer fabric orders in the domestic market have entered the final stage, and weaving enterprises generally adopt a model of reducing burden and production. The enterprise strictly controls the stocking of raw materials and implements the strategy of “urgent procurement, fast in and fast out”, with a cautious attitude towards stocking. The polyester industry, including polyester filament and staple fibers, has been dragged down by continuous destocking in the weaving process and a lack of orders for greige fabrics, leading mainstream enterprises to passively reduce burdens and production. Polyester bottle chips are relatively preferred in terms of performance. Currently, it is the peak season for beverage packaging consumption, and there is also an increase in demand for exports. The industry’s operating rate remains stable.
Looking at the future, the weakening of cost support, the decline in crude oil prices, and the slower than expected short-term destocking process of PX have increased the downward momentum of PTA prices due to cost pressures. Downstream, the main focus is on replenishing inventory for essential needs, with a cautious attitude towards stocking up. The sustained low demand has dragged down the market. Business analysts believe that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.

The market situation of styrene butadiene rubber has significantly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 25th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 15225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.88% from 16350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the May Day holiday, the market replenishment boom faded away, and the market lost downstream support. In addition, the US Iran negotiations continued, the international crude oil price range was adjusted, and the cost pressure of styrene butadiene rubber eased, resulting in an overall weak trend.
In April and May 2026, the price of styrene butadiene rubber showed a unilateral downward trend, dropping from about 18000 yuan/ton to about 15200 yuan/ton, with a range decline of over 15%. The price has always been below the 10 day and 20 day moving averages, with a bearish trend and clear short-term weakness. The market lacks support, and downward pressure continues to be released.
The prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene have fluctuated and weakened, and the production cost support of production enterprises is insufficient, weakening the confidence in the price increase of styrene butadiene rubber. At the same time, the crude oil market is widely affected by the geopolitical situation and supply and demand expectations, further exacerbating market uncertainty. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 25th, the price of butadiene was 12100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33% from 13200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 25th, the price of styrene was 9400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.24% from 9920 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Supply and demand side: At present, it is the traditional off-season for tire industry consumption, with weak demand for tire terminal replacement in China, backlog of finished product inventory in downstream factories, and insufficient enthusiasm for enterprise operation; In addition to the EU’s anti-dumping policies and the impact of geopolitical conflicts, tire foreign trade orders have declined, and downstream enterprises have mostly purchased small orders according to demand, without centralized stocking, directly dragging down the consumption of styrene butadiene rubber.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, it is expected that the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with a low probability of significant fluctuations. There is currently no centralized restart plan for the supply side maintenance equipment, and the inventory pressure is controllable, which can prevent a deep decline in rubber prices; But the demand side is difficult to recover in the short term, and the upward space of the market is limited. In the medium to long term, as the end of the summer off-season approaches in mid to late June, downstream tire companies are expected to gradually replenish their inventory. Coupled with the stabilization of raw material butadiene prices, rubber prices may rebound slightly. Overall, the future market needs to focus on the progress of equipment maintenance, the price trends of crude oil and butadiene, and changes in downstream tire operating rates.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have significantly decreased. On May 20th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 630 points, a decrease of 12 points from yesterday, a decrease of 37.44% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 132.47% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all declined. As of the 20th, the price of neodymium oxide was 770000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 8.33%; The price of neodymium metal is 950000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 7.77%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 765000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 8.11%; The price of praseodymium metal is 935000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price trend of 7.88% decline; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 855000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 8.06%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 695000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 8.55%.
Recently, the prices of light rare earths in the domestic market have significantly decreased, with core product prices continuing to decline, and the trend of market atmosphere weakening. The core is the large increase in the early stage, weaker demand during the off-season, relaxed supply margin, resonance of negative factors, and significant short-term market decline.
1、 Direct factor: Downstream demand is weaker during the off-season, and rigid demand is collapsing
New energy vehicles, wind power, and industrial motors have entered a deep off-season, with magnetic material companies operating at a rate of 55% -60%. Terminal prices are being suppressed, and magnetic material factories have zero inventory and demand based pricing. High priced goods are completely out of stock, resulting in a cliff like decline in transactions. In addition, reducing the amount of praseodymium neodymium used in mid to low end magnetic materials and increasing the proportion of recycled materials further weakens the demand for primary praseodymium neodymium. Downstream inquiry follow-up is insufficient, upstream merchants are constrained by weak demand, and overall trading is cautious, resulting in a significant decline in the light rare earth market.
2、 The previous increase was too large, and the recent market downturn
From the beginning of the year to the end of April, the light rare earth market saw a significant increase, with some recent market corrections. In early May, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law came into effect, with both positive and negative effects. Traders and smelters concentrated on selling and reducing inventory, resulting in a high concentration of low-priced orders and a significant decline in the light rare earth market.
3、 Supply side marginal relaxation, increased spot circulation
In 2026, the mining quota will increase, mainly focusing on light rare earths, with a smelting operation rate of 85% -90%, and the on-site inventory will continue to accumulate. In addition, Myanmar’s mineral imports have resumed (with a high proportion of light rare earths), and the production of praseodymium neodymium oxide by MP Materials in the United States increased by 63% year-on-year in the first quarter, filling the domestic gap. In the early stage, high priced and reluctant to sell goods were concentrated in the market, and the spot circulation increased month on month, breaking the balance and causing a decline in the market situation.
In the short term, the rare earth market is prone to decline but difficult to rise, with a focus on maintaining a downward trend. With the increasing demand in downstream fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power installation, and industrial motors, coupled with the continuous tightening of rare earth industry control, the expectation of strategic storage, and the recovery of overseas high-end manufacturing demand, the supply and demand pattern of rare earths is expected to tighten again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province was 4333 yuan/ton on May 15th, and 4250 yuan/ton on May 1st. In the first half of May, the market price of ammonium phosphate increased by 1.96%.
2、 Market analysis
The market for ammonium phosphate continued to rise in the first half of May. Raw material sulfur continues to rise at a high level, and cost pressure remains. Some manufacturers have executed previous orders, and dealers have increased their quotes. The operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises has decreased, the market supply has decreased, and downstream demand has weakened. As of May 15th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 4250-4400 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 4350-4450 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 4200 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material sulfur. The price of sulfur remained firm and rose in the first half of May. Recently, the trading atmosphere in the sulfur market has improved, and downstream demand continues to follow suit. It is expected to continue to rise in the short term. As of May 15th, the reference price for sulfur in Shandong region is around 7583 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market trend of ammonium phosphate has been dominant in recent days. At present, the raw material sulfur remains at a high level, with significant cost pressure, coupled with tight spot supply. It is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will continue to consolidate and rise.