1、 Core viewpoint
This week, the domestic imported potassium chloride market showed a trend of “high opening, low decline, and downward shift in focus”. Affected by historical high levels of port and social inventory, as well as weak downstream stocking intentions after holidays, market prices are under pressure and declining. As of October 9th, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) was 3333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the beginning of the month. The current market supply and demand contradiction is prominent, and the confidence in upstream price increases is fading. It is expected that the market will maintain weak and stable operation in the short term, and there is still room for negotiation in actual transactions.
2、 Market data review
Price trend: The price of imported potassium chloride remained at a high level of 3350.00 yuan/ton from October 3rd to 7th, but experienced a cliff like decline on October 8th, directly breaking through multiple moving averages and falling to 3333.33 yuan/ton, which lasted until the 9th. This’ stepped ‘downward trend indicates a rapid weakening of market sentiment after the holiday.
3、 Deep analysis of driving factors
1. Supply side: Severe inventory backlog and risk of inventory expansion
The current abundant supply of potassium chloride in China is the core factor that suppresses prices. As of October 8th, the inventory of potassium chloride at the port reached 4.41 million tons, an increase of 60000 tons from last week and a significant increase of 2.57 million tons year-on-year. The huge inventory barrier lake has caused local ports to experience inventory pressure, and upstream cargo holders have a strong willingness to ship. In order to recover funds, they have to lower their expectations for high prices and even compete for shipments.
2. Demand side: Delayed post holiday stocking and lack of centralized purchasing power
The stocking actions of downstream compound fertilizer factories and agricultural terminals after the holiday were significantly slower than expected. Faced with high inventory levels and uncertain future prospects, downstream companies generally adopt a “buy as you go” strategy, with extremely weak willingness to stockpile in large quantities. Lack of centralized purchase order support has led to sluggish market trading and forced a shift in the focus of transactions.
3. Mentality: Confidence in rising prices fades, bearish sentiment spreads
With the downward trend in prices and the accumulation of inventory, the confidence of market participants has been hit. The shift of upstream manufacturers from “firm pricing” before the holiday to “active shipment” has further exacerbated the weak market situation.
4、 Future outlook and risk warning
Trend prediction: In the short term, the potassium chloride market is difficult to break free from the fundamental constraints of “high inventory and weak demand”. Although the current price is in the historical low range and may trigger some chassis copying intervention, the possibility of a significant rebound in price is extremely low until inventory is effectively depleted. It is expected that the market will mainly operate weakly and steadily in the near future, and there may be slight downward pressure on actual transaction prices.
Key variables: It is necessary to closely monitor the turnover rate of port inventory and changes in the operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer plants. If production restrictions are introduced in the future or if there is a sudden concentrated release of fertilizer demand in autumn, it may provide temporary support for prices.

This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China experienced a significant decline, with an average market price of 409890 yuan/ton on October 1st and 393490 yuan/ton as of October 9th, a decrease of 4.00%.
On October 8th, the first trading day after the holiday, the spot price surged to 415240 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.31%; On October 9th, the market experienced a significant drop, with prices falling back to 393490 yuan/ton, a single day drop of up to 4.00%. In the past two days, there has been a sharp reversal of the market trend, with a single day drop significantly greater than the pre holiday increase.
Macro analysis
The core driving force behind this round of sharp decline is the concentrated correction of macro expectations. Firstly, the revenue realization signal of overseas AI computing power leaders did not meet the extremely optimistic expectations of the market, leading to a comprehensive weakening of technology stocks and semiconductor sectors, and a cooling and reassessment of the demand narrative for tin as a “computing metal” in the market. Secondly, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting released a hawkish signal, indicating that there is still a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year. The US dollar index climbed to a nearly one-and-a-half-year high, forming a systematic valuation suppression on metals denominated in US dollars. Thirdly, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to ferment, international oil prices rise, energy inflation stickiness and concerns about global industrial activity slowdown are heating up simultaneously, and the risk aversion of funds has significantly increased, further suppressing risky assets.
The following is a fundamental analysis:
The rigid constraints on the supply side and mining side are still present. The progress of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar is lower than expected, and the current level of resuming production in the Manxiang tin mine is about 40% -50% of before the mining ban, with full recovery or postponement until 2027; Although Indonesia’s export quota has been raised, the actual increase is limited. The processing fee for domestic tin concentrate remains at a historical low (about 18000 yuan/ton for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan), and smelting profits are suppressed, making it difficult to significantly release refined tin production.
Inventory side – significant differentiation between internal and external factors. LME tin inventory has dropped to a historical low of 4405 tons, while domestic social inventory was about 9194 tons before the holiday, showing a pattern of “tight overseas and sufficient domestic”, and the overall supply and demand are in a weak balance state.
Demand side – structural differentiation intensifies. The expansion of semiconductor packaging and HBM storage production still drives up the amount of solder used, but the domestic semiconductor sector continues to weaken after the holiday, coupled with the negative contribution of photovoltaic modules to tin consumption of about 4882 tons per year. The performance of traditional consumer sectors in the peak season is not as expected, and downstream acceptance of high prices has significantly decreased, resulting in insufficient willingness to receive high-level goods.
comprehensive analysis
Overall, tin prices are facing a game between “macro suppression and strengthening” and “low inventory at the mining end to support the bottom” in the short term. At the macro level, doubts about AI investment returns and the high level of the US dollar pose upward pressure; At the fundamental level, rigid constraints at the mining end and low LME inventory provide bottom support, but high domestic inventory and lower than expected demand realization weaken upward elasticity. The expected operating range for the short-term Shanghai tin main contract is 380000-405000 yuan/ton, with core focus variables including the pace of macro sentiment recovery, the actual progress of Myanmar’s resumption of production, and the degree of fulfillment of domestic demand during the “Silver Ten” peak season.

In September, the PA66 market maintained a low and volatile consolidation, with a stable benchmark price of 19100 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The fluctuation within the month was limited, and the price was in the mid to low range of the year. After a small rebound in the early stage, the upward momentum gradually dissipated, and the market entered a volatile and bearish pattern, lacking sustained upward drive.
1、 Cost end
The upstream adipic acid and caprolactam raw materials lack strong upward momentum, and the support for raw material costs is relatively weak. At the beginning of the month, the phased stabilization of raw materials brought certain cost support, limiting the deep downward space of PA66; But there has been no sustained price increase upstream, which cannot drive the center of gravity of slicing costs upward. The cost side presents a pattern of “support at the bottom, no upward push”, which makes it difficult to drive PA66 to continue to strengthen.
2、 Supply and demand side
supply
The overall operation of PA66 plants in China remains at a moderate level, and the supply of sliced goods in the market is relatively sufficient. Some enterprises have demands for funds to be recovered from shipments, and the pressure on spot supply continues to exist.
Requirement
The downstream engineering plastics, modification, and automotive parts fields are mainly in high demand, and the release of downstream orders is not as expected. Procurement is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and there is a lack of willingness to replenish inventory on a large scale. Terminal enterprises are resistant to high priced raw materials, have weak willingness to chase after price increases, and find it difficult to form a sustained driving force on the demand side. The relatively abundant supply combined with weak demand has suppressed the market’s upward potential.
3、 Short term future forecast
Short term PA66 is likely to continue its volatile pattern and operate slightly bearish. The cost side is still bottoming out, and there is limited room for a significant deep decline; However, downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, lacking effective positive stimuli, and there is significant resistance to price breakthroughs. The market may continue to fluctuate within the range. The moving average signal has not shown confirmation of a full long position, and there are currently no clear upward trend conditions.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8885 yuan/ton on September 1st and 9351 yuan/ton on September 29th, an increase of 5.25%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11466 yuan/ton on September 1st and 12200 yuan/ton on September 29th, an increase of 6.40%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on September 1st was 10787 yuan/ton, and on September 29th it was 10562 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09%.
The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East in early September has driven up crude oil and ethylene prices, with strong cost support, which is the core driving force behind this month’s price increase; In the latter half of the year, oil prices slightly fell, supporting a marginal weakening.
In the first and middle of September, maintenance was tight and the operating rate was lower than in previous years, forming a tight balance to support the bottom; In the second half of the year, the equipment resumed production and the operating rate rebounded, coupled with the expectation of new capacity deployment, and the supply pressure gradually accumulated.
The peak season of “Golden September” did not meet expectations: although the overall downstream operating rate slightly increased compared to the previous period, the follow-up of new orders such as agricultural film and pipe materials was weaker than the same period in previous years. Downstream consumers generally purchase on demand and take as needed, with obvious resistance to high priced raw materials and weak willingness to chase after price increases.
The rebound of PE at the end of the month is a temporary recovery of crude oil costs due to the resurgence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the tight spot market at the end of the month, and the resonance of urgent stocking before the National Day holiday. Short term polyethylene mainly fluctuates at high levels.

In September, formaldehyde experienced a cost driven surge, rising in the second half of the month and then trading sideways at a high level, with the increase narrowing. As of September 28th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1755 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.59% from mid month and 69.16% from the beginning of the year, setting a new high in prices in nearly five years.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: The strong rise of methanol is the core driving force of this round. Upstream methanol spot prices rose by over 36% in September, while futures strengthened simultaneously. The closure of the strait and tight supply from Iran led to a significant decrease in port volume, and methanol port inventories hit a 13 year low, providing strong support for formaldehyde costs.
Supply side: Some devices reduce load and contract supply. In early September, some formaldehyde units underwent maintenance and load reduction, coupled with a low inventory pattern, resulting in a gradually tight supply of goods.
On the demand side: Golden September peak season provides temporary support, but the strength is limited. As the small holiday approaches, the downstream artificial board industry in the main production and sales area coincides with the replenishment cycle, and market transactions remain smooth. There is a phased replenishment support under the mentality of buying up and not buying down. However, the overall production of downstream sheet metal enterprises is average, with limited acceptance of high prices, and insufficient sustained driving force from the demand side for prices.
Market forecast:
Taking into account both fundamental and technical factors, formaldehyde is expected to maintain a pattern of high-level fluctuations and consolidation in the short term, with overall strength but limited upward potential. There is a risk of a pullback in the medium term.
Positive supporting factors: The current port inventory of methanol is at a historical low. If overseas supply disruptions continue, methanol will continue to operate at a high level, providing a strong cost bottom support for formaldehyde; The overall inventory of formaldehyde enterprises is not high, and coupled with the expectation of a round of replenishment in the board industry after the holiday, it will form a certain buffer for spot prices, and the probability of a deep decline is not high.
Main risk points: Firstly, methanol is the biggest uncertainty. If overseas shipping risks ease, imported goods return to ports, port inventories begin to accumulate, and methanol prices may fall from a high level, formaldehyde cost support will rapidly weaken; Secondly, the downstream demand gap persists, and there has been no substantial improvement in the real estate chain terminal. Under the pressure of high raw material costs for sheet metal enterprises, profitability is under pressure. Continued high prices will further suppress procurement. Once the post holiday replenishment ends, downstream demand will return to immediate use and procurement, and there is a lack of relay on the demand side; Thirdly, the formaldehyde industry has sufficient production capacity. If high profits continue, the early load reduction maintenance equipment will gradually resume production, and the increase in supply will suppress spot prices.