At the beginning of May, due to the increase in raw material costs and the tightening of supply caused by the maintenance of some acrylonitrile plants, enterprises showed a significant increase in prices, but the downstream willingness to chase higher prices was weak, and the market quickly entered a high-level stalemate. Despite the high price of raw material propylene in the middle of the month, production enterprises were deeply trapped in losses and formed a bottom support for prices. However, downstream demand was not well followed up, spot sales were slow, and local quotations were the first to loosen, leading to a gradual decline in the market. Entering the middle and late stages, the increase in market supply further dragged down the mentality, and prices continued to decline slightly.
Starting from mid month, the acrylonitrile maintenance units will gradually resume, and the current capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry has increased from less than 65% to nearly 75%.
In terms of acrylic fiber, the production load of the acrylic fiber industry has fluctuated greatly. This month, the production of acrylic fiber started at 32.15%, a decrease of 14.79% compared to the previous month. In the early stage, due to equipment shutdown, the industry load dropped to less than 30%. Recently, it has gradually begun to recover to a level above 40%, and is expected to further increase in June.
In terms of ABS, the efficiency of ABS is poor. In May 2026, the average operating rate of domestic ABS equipment was 57.41%, a decrease of 2.64% month on month and 13.16% year-on-year. The average operating rate of ABS equipment continued to decline in May as a whole.
In addition, although there is still a shortage of overseas supply, with two sets of facilities in South Korea’s Dongxi Petrochemical in Northeast Asia being shut down for maintenance, and Formosa Plastics and other facilities operating at low loads, the demand in the region has also weakened, and the atmosphere of external inquiries has also fallen. Although there is arbitrage in exports, the space has significantly narrowed.
In the later stage, there will still be a reduction in supply in June, but the specific maintenance time has not been announced yet, so it is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance. Therefore, there will be little change in the supply of acrylonitrile in June, and the overall estimate is that acrylonitrile supply will further increase in June. The domestic production is expected to be between 360000 and 370000 tons, higher than the 360000 tons production in May.
Downstream, Qifeng, Ningbo Zhongxin, Hangzhou Bay Acrylic and other facilities will be restarted one after another; Most ABS devices still operate at low loads, but there are also a few devices with expectations of increased production; The production and terminal consumption of acrylamide will gradually enter the off-season. Therefore, it is expected that apart from a significant increase in the consumption of acrylic fiber, other industries will not see significant growth in the future. However, due to the decline in the proportion of acrylic fiber consumption in recent years, the support for the acrylonitrile market in the stage of demand recovery is also quite limited, and the overall demand is weak.
Overall, the supply-demand gap in the acrylonitrile industry is expected to widen again in June and July. Although cost pressures continue to limit market declines, the downward trend in prices is difficult to reverse. However, due to the current situation where some acrylonitrile production enterprises are already in a loss making state, especially the northern factories, due to relatively low prices and the need to source some raw materials externally, the future bearish expectations based on news may still lead to unplanned fluctuations in the supply side. The existence of supply variables will continue to limit market operating space, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to slowly decline in the future, and it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the linkage changes between costs and supply.

The domestic PP market recovered after a decline in the first half of May, and rose in the second half. The price fluctuations of various brand products are relatively narrow. As of May 31st, the benchmark price for PP drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 9723.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.81% compared to the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In May, high-level signals from both the United States and Iran in the Middle East were released intensively, and overall they were relatively positive. In the long run, the shortage of crude oil supply will gradually narrow, but it will take time for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to fully recover. There is a divergence in market mentality, with a tangled game between marginal premiums and fundamentals within the range. In the latter half of the year, oil prices rapidly fell, and the cost value of PP’s remote end weakened. The demand for propylene in the market is stable, but some enterprises have restarted their facilities within the month. The expected increase in supply suppressed some of the gains and led to a high-level pullback market. Overall, the PP raw material market is fluctuating, with weakened support for PP costs at the end of the month.
Supply side:
During May, there were many production capacity shutdowns and returns of domestic PP enterprises, and the overall operating rate was in a historically low range. As of the deadline for publication, the overall load of the domestic industry is less than 50%, and the weekly output has fallen below 670000 tons. The current inventory position is below 700000 tons, and the overall supply performance is tight. Overall, the supply side has strong support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by the rising market trend at the end of the first quarter, PP prices remained relatively high during May, and downstream markets in the industry continued to resist high prices, resulting in a cautious overall trading atmosphere. The current buyer camp is picking up goods on demand, with average warehouse building operations, and often seeing scattered small orders that can be picked up as needed. Meanwhile, due to the high cost pressure, the improvement in operating rates of small and micro end enterprises is limited, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and acquire goods. The demand side is generally in a wait-and-see situation, with average support for PP.
Future forecast
In May, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated in the first half of the month and rose in the second half. Fundamentally speaking, maintenance in May maintained a concentrated trend, industry load levels bottomed out, port imports remained low, and spot resources in the market turned tight. However, the cost side has fluctuated and weakened, coupled with weak demand and expectations of a return to production capacity in June. Business Society PP analysts believe that the current PP market is weak in both supply and demand, and the upward momentum in the future is hindered. The magnitude of this increase may be hindered.

This month (5.1-5.29), the 1 # tin ingot market in East China saw a significant increase, with an average market price of 386910 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 424960 yuan/ton as of May 29th, an increase of 9.83%.
Supply and demand side
The core incentive for the sharp rise in tin prices in mid May came from the supply side. The resumption progress of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar continues to be lower than market expectations – previously, the market generally expected to resume mining in the second quarter, but the actual implementation has been repeatedly delayed. At the same time, the rainy season in Indonesia has affected the export of refined tin, and LME tin inventories have continued to decline in mid to early May, exacerbating concerns about raw material shortages. Funds quickly boosted the futures market, causing a brief reluctance to sell sentiment in the spot market.
The actual downstream consumption has not followed up. Solder companies and terminals (photovoltaic solder strips, consumer electronics) have extremely low acceptance of high prices and only maintain essential procurement. The slow depletion of social inventory indicates that weak demand is the fundamental constraint. The characteristic of low peak season runs through the entire month of May.
comprehensive analysis
Short term tin prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is important to focus on the support strength of the 20 day moving average (approximately 422000 yuan/ton). If the support is effective, the price may fluctuate and consolidate within the range of 410000 to 43000 yuan/ton; If it falls below this support, it may further explore the early platform around 400000. Looking ahead to June and the third quarter, tin prices are likely to enter a period of oscillation and bottoming out.

From May 2025 to May 2026, the natural rubber market will experience a sharp upward trend. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of natural rubber has risen from 13658 yuan/ton on May 28, 2025 to the current 17600 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 28.86%. This round of rise is the result of long-term bottlenecks on the supply side, extreme weather shocks, and the resonance of steady recovery on the demand side.
Supply and demand resonance drives the upward trend of Tianjiao market
The supply side continues to contract. The main production areas of natural rubber in the world are concentrated in Southeast Asia, with Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia contributing over 70% of the production. However, the current production areas are facing three pressures: aging rubber trees, shrinking planting areas, and frequent extreme weather events. Thailand, as the largest producer, has an average age of over 25 years for rubber trees, with more than half of them being aged. Its production capacity has been declining year by year; At the same time, rubber farmers have switched to planting economic crops such as oil palm and fruits, resulting in a continuous decline in the area of newly planted rubber plantations for many years. However, it takes 7 years for rubber trees to be planted and harvested, and the supply elasticity is seriously insufficient.
From 2025 to the first half of 2026, the El Ni ñ o phenomenon will cause sustained high temperatures and droughts in Southeast Asia. The rainfall in production areas such as Thailand and Vietnam will be 30% -50% less than usual, resulting in delayed cutting times and a significant decrease in latex production. The price of Thai cup rubber will increase by 29% year-on-year.
The domestic production areas in Hainan and Yunnan are also affected by drought, with a production reduction of about 30% in Hainan by 2025, further exacerbating global supply shortages.
According to ANRPC data, the global natural rubber production in 2025 will be 14.996 million tons, a year-on-year increase of only 2.0%; The expected production in 2026 is 15.324 million tons, while demand is expected to reach 15.602 million tons, widening the supply-demand gap to 400000 tons, resulting in continuous years of insufficient production and demand.
Moderate recovery on the demand side. More than 70% of the demand for natural rubber comes from the tire industry, and the prosperity of the automotive industry directly affects market trends. Since 2025, the global automotive industry has gradually recovered, and domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles have continued to grow. The amount of rubber used per vehicle is about 15% higher than that of fuel vehicles, and tire wear is faster and replacement cycles are shortened, significantly driving demand for natural rubber. Combined with domestic heavy truck updates and infrastructure investment, the demand for all steel tires has steadily increased. In addition, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to be at a low level in recent years, with tight spot circulation and intensified price increases due to traders’ hoarding behavior.
From a fundamental perspective, the tight supply-demand balance in the natural rubber market is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, the current situation of aging rubber trees and low planting willingness in the main production areas of Southeast Asia is difficult to improve quickly, and extreme weather disturbances still exist, with limited new production capacity; On the demand side, the recovery of the global automotive industry and the popularization of new energy vehicles will continue to support tire demand, and the consumption potential of emerging markets will gradually be released. In the short term, after the price surges, it may face downward pressure, but the upward logic in the medium and long term remains unchanged. The natural rubber price center is expected to maintain a high level of operation, with increased volatility.

From May 18th to May 26th, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose, with an initial market average price of 414640 yuan/ton. As of May 26th, the market average price was 424170 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30.
The tin price has gone through a V-shaped reversal of “rapid bottoming out, daily surge, and high-level consolidation”, and has risen back to 424000 yuan/ton. Under the background of low inventory, price elasticity has significantly increased due to the resonance of the triple supply shock caused by the interruption of external transportation from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the obstruction of resuming production during the rainy season in Myanmar, and the expected tax reform in Indonesia.
From the perspective of supply and demand analysis, the “three consecutive strikes” of supply and demand have a moderate degree of rigidity and resilience
The supply side has become the core engine of this round of price increase:
The public health incident in the Democratic Republic of Congo resulted in the cut-off of the Bisie tin mine’s external transportation channel (accounting for about 6.6% of global supply), and the resumption time is unknown;
After the rainy season and earthquake, the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar only reached 40% -50% of the pre mining ban level, and imports in April decreased by another 22% month on month;
Indonesia’s exports plummeted by 54% year-on-year in April, and the royalty tax rate is planned to be raised from 10% to 20%, further suppressing exports.
The demand side presents a rigid bottom support: the demand for solder materials for new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI servers is steadily increasing, but the premium for spot goods above 425000 yuan/ton has narrowed, and downstream processing enterprises are once again afraid of high prices. The high price suppression effect cannot be ignored.
In terms of inventory, the global explicit inventory is at a historical low (8693 tons on the previous exchange, 8195 tons on LME), and the combination of “low inventory+supply disturbance” amplifies the upward price elasticity.
comprehensive analysis
Short term supply disturbances are difficult to solve, and tin prices are expected to operate strongly in the range of 415000 to 435000 yuan/ton. We need to closely monitor the progress of border recovery in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the actual impact of the rainy season in Myanmar. In the medium term, the global tin reserve production ratio is only 20.7 years, and the underlying logic of price center upward shift remains unchanged due to the scarcity of resources and the increasing demand for AI computing power. However, caution should be exercised: if Myanmar’s resumption of production accelerates beyond expectations or downstream consumption shows a significant decline, there is a possibility that tin prices may fall back to the 400000 yuan mark.