In August 2026, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rebounded and rose, with an average price of 15330 yuan/ton on August 3 and 15765 yuan/ton as of August 11, an increase of 2.84%.
Fundamental analysis
Supply side intertwining long and short positions
In terms of primary lead, smelting enterprises rely on profits from by-products such as silver and sulfuric acid to offset losses in lead ingot processing. The comprehensive profit is still acceptable, and the production in August is expected to remain high and stable, constituting the main pressure on the supply side. However, some refineries in Hunan and other regions have undergone routine maintenance, and the supply of primary lead has been temporarily tightened. In terms of recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste batteries and widespread industry losses, the operating rate continues to decline, and the production in August is expected to decrease month on month. The contraction of recycled lead supply constitutes the core bottom support for lead prices.
Weak repair on the demand side
Currently, it is still in the off-season for lead-acid battery consumption, and there has been no significant increase in terminal orders. Although August has entered the traditional peak season stocking window of “Golden September and Silver October”, it is limited by the backlog of finished product inventory and weak exports, and the downstream replenishment efforts are only seasonal weak repairs.
In terms of inventory, as of August 11th, the previous period’s inventory was 60927 tons; Although LME lead inventory continues to decrease slightly, the absolute amount is still at a historical high of over 420000 tons.
Comprehensive Summary
The loss and production reduction of recycled lead provide bottom support, and the tight mining situation continues, with limited room for further decline in lead prices. However, doubts about the strength of terminal demand recovery, high global explicit inventories, and stable primary lead supply jointly suppress the upward space. It is expected that the short-term lead price will mainly fluctuate within a range and gradually rise at the bottom, and the market may repeatedly grind to the bottom, with insufficient unilateral upward drive. The key variable for the subsequent trend lies in the actual fulfillment of the peak demand for batteries from late August to September.

Recently, the formic acid market has shown a stable and sideways trend, with limited overall market volatility. As of August 10th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 1800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.74% compared to the same period last month. The price remains stable in the short-term low range, and the overall market shows obvious supply-demand game characteristics. The short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and the pressure situation in the medium and long term has not changed.
From the perspective of market supply and demand pattern, the current formic acid market is intertwined with long and short factors, forming a dynamic balance situation. The core factor supporting the current low price stabilization is the low inventory of manufacturers. Due to the low prices, downstream end customers have increased their willingness to stock up on dips, effectively consuming manufacturers’ spot inventory. The overall inventory level of the industry is at a low level, which provides solid support for spot prices and avoids further significant price declines. However, at the same time, the market’s favorable support is relatively weak, and overall terminal demand remains weak with no obvious signs of recovery. Downstream demand follow-up is insufficient, and overall market transactions are flat, which cannot drive price rebound and rise, becoming the core negative factor restricting the upward trend of the market.
From the perspective of subsequent changes in the supply side, the overall supply pressure of the industry will gradually rebound, bringing downward pressure to the future market. In the early stage, multiple formic acid production units in the industry completed shutdown maintenance. With the end of the maintenance cycle, related units gradually entered the resumption stage, and the subsequent market spot supply will steadily increase. Against the backdrop of terminal demand not yet recovering, the release of supply increment will break the current weak supply-demand balance, exacerbate the market supply-demand imbalance pattern, and lead to weak upward momentum and continuous accumulation of downward risks in the formic acid market.
Overall, in early August, the domestic formic acid market achieved low price stability supported by low inventory, but the dual negative factors of weak terminal demand and subsequent supply increment continued to suppress the market trend. The short-term market may continue to operate in a low volatility mode, and there is currently no opportunity for significant price fluctuations; In the medium to long term, with the comprehensive resumption of production of maintenance equipment, the pressure on the supply side is concentrated and released, while the demand side is difficult to quickly recover. The overall trend of the domestic formic acid market is still bearish, and there is a possibility of further price decline. Specific attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

At the beginning of the week, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content was 4040 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content was 4033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17% in price.

This week, the market price of potassium sulfate has been weak, with a factory price of about 4250-4300 yuan/ton for 52% powder/fully water-soluble powder, and a factory price of about 3700-3850 yuan/ton for 50% resource-based potassium sulfate powder upon arrival. The overall supply and demand of the domestic potassium sulfate market are loose, with a slight downward trend in some areas. The market is in a game of cost support and weak demand, with an overall trading atmosphere that is relatively weak, and there is a large bargaining space for actual transactions.

Demand side: Currently in the off-season for fertilizer use in summer, the demand for fertilizer preparation in autumn has not yet been concentrated, and the operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer factories is lower than expected, which limits the support for the demand for potassium sulfate. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with insufficient willingness to replenish inventory on a large scale, resulting in a sluggish overall market transaction volume. Some enterprises have resorted to hidden price cuts and discounts to promote transaction orders

Prediction: The potassium sulfate market is experiencing weak trading, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market prices will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

This week, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have declined, with prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal all showing a decline. As of the 6th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.405 million yuan/ton, a 1.06% decrease this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.365 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 1.925 million yuan/ton, with a 1.03% decline in price trend this week.
The price trend of heavy rare earth market has declined this week due to multiple factors such as weak terminal demand, short-term supply pressure, cooling market sentiment, and external technology substitution expectations.
Supply side: high inventory, poor circulation
The overall heavy rare earth market is in a state of oversupply, with high inventory levels that have suppressed prices; In addition, the limited invoicing quota for rare earth trade has led to an increase in transaction costs and a decrease in circulation efficiency, resulting in a situation of “difficult to sell goods with value but no market”, further suppressing market activity. Myanmar is the most important source of heavy rare earths in the world, accounting for about 57% of China’s total rare earth imports. Since 2026, Myanmar’s mineral imports have plummeted by 42% year-on-year. Some ports have restricted customs clearance, directly cutting off the supply of key medium and heavy rare earth raw materials. At the same time, Vietnam has legislated to ban the export of rare earth raw materials since that year, further cutting off external supplementary channels and reducing import sources, resulting in a limited decline in the heavy rare earth market.
Demand side: Downstream enters off-season, with low purchasing willingness
The largest downstream application of heavy rare earths is permanent magnet materials in the fields of new energy vehicles and wind power. The second and third quarters are usually the traditional off-season for the new energy vehicle and wind power industries, resulting in insufficient orders for magnetic material companies and a decrease in operating rates to 60% -65%. Terminal enterprises are suppressing prices, and magnetic material factories generally adopt a conservative strategy of “on-demand procurement and zero inventory”, refusing high prices, resulting in a significant contraction of demand for heavy rare earths. In order to reduce costs, some mid to low end magnetic materials have reduced the addition of heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium in production, further suppressing demand and causing a decline in the heavy rare earth market.
Market forecast: The recent decline in the heavy rare earth market is mainly due to the combined effect of insufficient short-term demand and cooling market sentiment. Starting from 2026, the global supply and demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, and rare earth prices are expected to remain stable with some progress.

1、 Market Overview
In July, the domestic PA6 spot market experienced a bottoming out recovery, followed by a slight decline after a surge. At the beginning of the month, the spot price remained stable at 12666.67 yuan/ton. In the first half of the month, relying on downstream stage replenishment, there was an upward trend. The short-term moving average crossed the long-term moving average one after another, and the price surged all the way to above 12600 yuan/ton; The upward momentum gradually weakened in the latter half of the month, and the market fluctuated sideways. At the end of the month, there was slight pressure and a slight decline. On August 4th, the spot price fell to 12500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% for the day. Throughout the month, the market has already departed from the low range of June, and the annual price is at the mid to high level of the one-year cycle, showing an overall upward trend of first rising and then falling.
2、 Cost analysis
The weekly closing price of upstream raw material caprolactam in July remained stable for a long time, and the upstream pure benzene market fluctuated narrowly. There was no significant rise or fall in the raw material end, providing stable bottom cost support for PA6 chips.
The production load of the caprolactam industry is stable, the market supply of goods is sufficient, and the initiative in raw material prices is insufficient; However, due to device maintenance and enterprise controlled shipment, the downward space for raw material prices is also limited. Overall, the trend of raw material costs this month is relatively stable, and the fluctuation of PA6 slicing market is mainly dominated by downstream supply and demand fundamentals. Raw materials only play a bottom support role and are difficult to drive slicing to rise significantly.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
1. Supply side
Most of the domestic PA6 production enterprises are operating normally, and the overall operating load of the industry remains high, with sufficient supply of market basic goods. At the beginning of the month, the slicing price was at a low level for the year, and some factories took the initiative to reduce operating rates, control spot shipments, and digest the backlog of inventory in the early stage; With the price recovery, manufacturers gradually resumed normal production scheduling, and the supply of spot goods increased accordingly.
Mid month market price increases have driven traders’ enthusiasm for stockpiling, resulting in an increase in social inventory; At the end of the month, downstream procurement cooled down, and factory inventory once again piled up. Manufacturers lowered their spot prices to accelerate shipments, and the overall market supply is in a relaxed state.
2. Demand side
July belongs to the traditional off-season of the textile and injection molding modification industries, but downstream textile enterprises of nylon have started stocking up ahead of the peak season, which has driven the recovery of demand in the slicing market and is the core driving force behind this round of price increases.
In the first half of the year, downstream yarn and synthetic fiber factories urgently needed to replenish their inventory, and the market transaction atmosphere was hot, driving up spot prices; The first round of raw material stocking in the second half of the year has basically ended, and orders for terminal fabrics and home textiles are still weak. Downstream factories have stopped taking large quantities of goods and turned to sporadic purchases on demand, causing a decline in market transaction heat. At the same time, the demand for injection molding modification sector is flat, and the orders in the automotive parts and plastic products industries are weak, making it difficult to provide additional upward momentum. The weak demand at the end of the month has led to a slight decline in prices.
4、 Short term forecast
The domestic PA6 market is likely to experience high volatility in the short term. The trend of the cost side caprolactam market is stable, with solid bottom support; At present, the spot price is at the mid to high level of the year, and there is a certain upward pressure above it.

In the coming period, the traditional peak season of the textile industry is gradually approaching, and there is an expectation of further release of downstream textile enterprises’ stocking demand, which will provide favorable support for slice prices; However, the current supply of spot goods is abundant, and the recovery speed of terminal finished product orders is relatively slow. It is difficult for the market to experience a unilateral surge, and the overall trend will maintain range oscillation, waiting for downstream peak season orders to land.