According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on January 14, 2025, the reference ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was 6350 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as January 1; Compared with December 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 6387 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59%.
In early January, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong showed a fluctuating trend of “first stabilizing, then falling, and then rebounding”
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early January, the market performance of Shandong cyclohexanone was stable, with little fluctuation in the market, and the overall market was in a sideways consolidation stage, with limited price elasticity. On the 9th, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province was adjusted narrowly downwards, with the market price dropping to around 6300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market continued to consolidate and operate. On the 14th, with the support of the cost side, the cyclohexanone market experienced a correction, and the overall price returned to the level at the beginning of the month. As of January 14th, the market price reference for cyclohexanone in Shandong is around 6350-6400 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
In terms of cost: At the beginning of the month, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated narrowly, providing stable cost support for cyclohexanone. Subsequently, the pure benzene market experienced a slight decline due to fluctuations in crude oil prices and weak downstream demand. The production cost support for cyclohexanone weakened, and the company passively lowered its quotation to ensure shipment volume. Subsequently, the pure benzene market rebounded due to the rebound in crude oil prices and the rise in prices by manufacturers. The production cost of cyclohexanone supported the repair, and companies raised their quotations accordingly.
In terms of supply and demand: In early January, the overall performance of the cyclohexanone market supply side was relatively stable. During the period of cyclohexanone price reduction, downstream demand overall improved by restocking on dips. After the cyclohexanone market rebounded, market demand recovered weakly.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is light and mild, and downstream pre holiday stocking has not yet been fully opened. The overall supply and demand transmission in the market is weak and stable. The cyclohexanone data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly operate in a range of fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China showed a strong upward trend this week (1.1-11.13), with an average market price of 326340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 381240 yuan/ton as of January 13, an increase of 16.82%.
The domestic tin price has once again risen strongly, with the main contract price of Shanghai tin significantly increasing, and the domestic spot tin market price has also risen significantly. Although there was a slight technical correction during this period, the overall focus shifted upwards, and the recent trend is the result of the combined effects of macro expectations, industry fundamentals, and short-term supply disturbances.
Macroscopic perspective
Although the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has fallen slightly, it is still in the cycle of interest rate cuts, and the expectation of global liquidity easing provides liquidity support for the metal market. As the world’s largest tin exporting country, Indonesia’s mining quota approval progress and export policy dynamics have always been like the “Damocles Sword” hanging over the market, keeping the market vigilant at all times. At the same time, domestic industrial policies related to new quality productivity fields such as artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing are accelerating their implementation, adding certainty to the long-term demand for tin applications.
supply side
Continued mining disturbance: Although there is a peace agreement in the armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, local areas remain unstable, and there is uncertainty in tin production and transportation; The progress of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar has been affected by the approval process and is not as expected, resulting in significant fluctuations in tin ore imports.
Indonesia’s exports are restricted: In the application for export quotas, Indonesia’s short-term exports have sharply decreased, further exacerbating the global shortage of tin ore supply.
Low inventory: Global tin inventory continues to decline, with both exchange receipts and social inventory at historical lows. Domestic inventory has decreased by 1100 tons compared to the beginning of the month, reaching a total of 6245 tons.
Demand side
The demand in the semiconductor market is strong: global semiconductor sales continue to rise, with a year-on-year growth of 21.2% from January to October 2025. Due to the strong demand for tin in the semiconductor industry, especially in high-end chip manufacturing and packaging.
Emerging fields drive demand growth: With the rapid development of emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and photovoltaics, tin, as a key solder material, continues to increase in demand, and the long-term demand trend presents a good development prospect.
The spot market has been affected by the recent surge in tin prices, and downstream purchasing sentiment has been sluggish. The pressure of raw material costs is gradually transmitted downwards along the industrial chain, and downstream enterprises mostly adopt on-demand procurement, with weak willingness to replenish inventory. There are not many resources circulating in the spot market, although the premium has decreased.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the active performance of the foreign market has had a driving effect on domestic prices. Currently, the overseas market has experienced a decline after rising, turning into a range oscillation trend, and it is expected that Shanghai Wuxi will also enter a synchronized oscillation trend. Under the support of strong fundamentals in the short term, it is expected to maintain a strong pattern, with the price center at a high level, which may potentially impact the 400000 mark. But we should also be vigilant about the insufficient support on the demand side of the spot market and the risk of a pullback.

The current acrylic acid market is facing a dilemma of ups and downs. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 5866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of this month.
Cost side:
The price of the main raw material propylene remained relatively firm against the backdrop of winter demand and fluctuations in international oil prices. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of propylene was 5871.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.68% compared to the beginning of this month. This also determines the bottom line of cost for acrylic acid. The profit margin of manufacturers has been compressed, and their willingness to proactively lower prices is not strong.
Supply side:
Although 2025-2026 is the period for the introduction of new acrylic acid production capacity in China, since the beginning of the year, some major factories have carried out unplanned or extended shutdowns and maintenance, offsetting some of the supply increase brought by the new production capacity. The overall operating rate of the industry remains in the range of 75% -80%, and inventory levels are in the middle range, without forming significant pressure.
Demand side:
January and February are the traditional off-season for downstream production of coatings, adhesives, etc., with rigid procurement being the main focus. The slow recovery of the terminal consumer market has led downstream enterprises to adopt a strategy of “purchasing on demand and maintaining low inventory” for raw materials, and large-scale hoarding behavior is rare. This has suppressed the upward momentum of prices, but also means that the market has not accumulated huge speculative inventory risks. The overseas market demand maintains a certain resilience, providing a diversion channel for domestic supply and avoiding the comprehensive impact of overcapacity.
How long can the ‘stable’ state last?
The current weak balance is fragile and is expected to be broken by the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. Specifically, let’s take a look at the following key variables:
1. The intensity and pace of demand recovery
After March, downstream industries will enter the traditional peak season stocking period. If the effects of real estate policies become apparent and the consumer goods market rebounds, driving demand for butyl acrylate (coatings), superabsorbent polymers (SAP, used for hygiene products) and other products to rebound beyond expectations, the market will quickly clear inventory and prices are expected to break through. On the contrary, if the demand during peak season is “not in good condition”, the market will lose support due to disappointment.
2. Supply side variables
After the end of the first quarter, the pre maintenance equipment will gradually resume production, and the release of new production capacity will be more fully realized. The supply pressure will significantly increase in the second quarter. If the long-term price stalemate leads to a continuous deterioration of industry profits, some high cost devices may be forced to reduce load or shut down, thereby regulating supply again.
3. Macro and Cost Environment
The trend of international energy prices will directly reshape the cost line. If there is a trend of rising or falling crude oil prices, it will disrupt the current cost balance. The actual implementation effect of domestic policies to stabilize growth and promote consumption will determine the fundamental direction of terminal demand.
Conclusion: The current “stable” state of the acrylic acid market is a dynamic and fragile balance, and is expected to be difficult to sustain beyond the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter will be a critical period for direction selection, and its trend is highly dependent on the actual demand performance of the “traditional peak season” and the game of supply increment.
For market participants, it is not advisable to have excessive expectations for unilateral market trends at present. Flexible operations and strict inventory control are still the best strategies, and preparations should be made for possible trend trends in the second quarter.

1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 142816.67 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from the beginning of the week and up 12.56% year-on-year.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 7 times. Recently, nickel prices have risen rapidly and then fallen back.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically speaking, at the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched a crackdown on Venezuela and seized resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland, intensifying risk aversion. The US dollar seized the opportunity to rebound, oil prices fell, stock markets fluctuated, precious metals such as gold and silver retreated, and nickel prices fell under pressure.
News: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) claims that the government plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by about 34% by 2026. The world’s leading nickel producing country plans to make significant adjustments to its nickel mining quota for the new year, coupled with major producers suspending some mining operations due to unforeseen circumstances, which has raised concerns in the market about future supply tightening. Analysis indicates that if relevant policies are implemented, there may be a substantial gap in global nickel ore supply, which will have a direct impact on the country’s energy system, which accounts for the majority of the global supply share.
On the supply side, it is expected that refined nickel production will decrease month on month, and the short-term surplus pattern will narrow under the reduction in production. However, the overall spot supply in the market is still relatively sufficient. In November, China’s refined nickel production was 25800 tons, a decrease of 28.1% compared to the previous month.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises are buying at low prices, and the “Two Sessions” emphasize the long-term benefits of defense spending. The demand for stainless steel is generally low, and the depletion of social inventory is slow. There may be an increase in supply pressure due to the improvement of steel mill profits. Spot transactions are still cautious, and nickel iron prices have slightly increased recently. In terms of nickel sulfate, downstream ternary production decreased slightly after the end of the peak season reserve period, and there were constraints on the production of new capacity in the medium term. Recently, prices have fallen.
In summary, recent market trading has mainly focused on the pace of RKAB quotas in the Indonesian mining sector, and the actual implementation situation in the future remains to be observed. With high valuations and loose expectations, sentiment has sharply declined, and it is expected that nickel prices will experience a wide range of fluctuations and adjustments in the short term.

The phthalic anhydride market is expected to fluctuate and decline in 2025
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 5966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 9.60% compared to the price of 6600 yuan/ton on January 1. In 2025, the phthalic anhydride market showed a fluctuating downward trend and a low-level rebound at the end of the year. The average price of phthalic anhydride in East China was 6653.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.60% from 2024 and a new low in nearly three years. The triple pressure of falling raw material prices, oversupply, and weak downstream demand has led to a deep adjustment in the phthalic anhydride industry.
Cost reduction of phthalic anhydride
On December 31st, Sinopec quoted 5800 yuan/ton for ortho benzene, a significant drop of 13.43% compared to the price of 6700 yuan/ton on January 1st. The average price of ortho benzene for the whole year of 2025 will decrease by about 12% compared to 2024, with a slight rebound in ortho benzene prices at the end of the year and a decrease in the cost of phthalic anhydride. The cost support for phthalic anhydride has weakened, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride will increase in 2025.
Phthalic anhydride production capacity expansion, oversupply
The total production capacity of phthalic anhydride in China is about 2.4 million tons (including 1.63 million tons from the neighboring method and 770000 tons from the naphthalene method), with an additional production capacity of about 50000 tons by 2025. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate within the range of 50% -75% in 2025, while the operating rate of neighboring methods will remain at 60% -75%. The operating rate of naphthalene method will only be 50% -60% due to cost pressure. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride is relatively high, and there is an overall oversupply of phthalic anhydride.
Demand side: DOP prices will fluctuate and fall in 2025
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of DOP was 7325.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 10.95% from 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. In 2025, DOP prices will first stabilize and then decline, with a slight rebound and increase at the end of the year. The price center of gravity for the whole year will significantly decrease compared to 2024. Downstream demand is weak, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices is increasing. More than 60% of the demand for phthalic anhydride relies on the plasticizer industry such as DOP. By 2025, the operating rate of DOP enterprises will only be 50% -65%. The market for plasticizer DOP is declining, and caution should be exercised in the procurement of phthalic anhydride, with a focus on essential needs and low inventory levels. There is significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.
Future forecast
The data analyst for phthalic anhydride products at Shengyi Society believes that by 2025, the cost of excess phthalic anhydride supply will decrease, and the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and fall. Overall, in terms of cost, there will be no new domestic production capacity for phthalic anhydride in 2026, and some enterprises will switch to PX production. In addition, with the expectation of maintenance in the Asian market in the second quarter, the price of phthalic anhydride may fluctuate and rise in 2026, which will increase the cost support for phthalic anhydride; In terms of supply, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride will be relatively high in 2025, and may decrease in 2026, with no new production capacity for phthalic anhydride. The expected supply of phthalic anhydride in 2026 is expected to decrease; In terms of demand, with the relaxation of real estate policies and the expected rebound in demand for plasticizers, support for phthalic anhydride demand still exists. In the future, with cost support and weak supply and strong demand, the price of phthalic anhydride is expected to fluctuate and rise in 2026, or stabilize weakly after reaching a high level in the second quarter.