Since December, the domestic ABS market has continued to weaken and trend, with most grades of spot prices being lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 10th, the average price of ABS sample products was 8375.00 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.36% compared to the end of November.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since early December, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has increased. Within the interval, Jilin Petrochemical’s load has increased, and some equipment maintenance tasks of Zhejiang Petrochemical have ended. The overall operating level of the industry is around 70%, and the weekly average production is over 145000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is close to 260000 tons, holding firm at a high level. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices continues to be weak.
Cost factor: In early December, the upstream three materials market of ABS experienced more declines than gains, which had a negative impact on the cost side of ABS. The capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry remains above 80%, with an increase in excess inventory and market volatility. However, downstream users have abundant inventory, average purchasing enthusiasm, and poor trading in the spot market. There are still expectations of a short-term downturn, but cost pressure continues to exist, which still restricts the downward space of the market.
The market situation of butadiene within ten days is similar to that of acrylonitrile, with abundant supply and weak downstream demand. Under the dual negative impact, the overall volatility of the butadiene market is weak. At the same time, there has been no significant improvement in the downstream synthetic rubber market, and there is a lack of positive support within the market. It is expected that the butadiene market will continue to have a weak and volatile trend in the future, with a focus on inventory digestion.
At the beginning of this month, the styrene market rose. Although the raw material pure benzene market is constrained by demand and hindered from rising. However, recently there have been many unplanned shutdowns of styrene plants, and the supply side is gradually strengthening. At the same time, downstream profits have recovered and production has rebounded, with demand steadily following suit. The supply and demand of styrene in the future may continue to maintain a tight balance pattern, and prices may mainly fluctuate within a range.
On the demand side: In the early stage, the consumption of ABS’s main downstream electrical appliance shell industry weakened, resulting in unsatisfactory profitability for end enterprises and no increase in future production. There is no significant increase in downstream demand for ABS, and the overall stocking logic of buyers still maintains a strong demand for replenishment, resulting in slow supply flow. The inventory position of merchants is also at a high level of stalemate, and under the increasing pressure of de stocking in the field, enterprises and merchants continue to offer discounts and take orders. According to customs data, the export market has generally remained flat, with limited support for industry consumption. The domestic and foreign markets maintain a cautious atmosphere, and the industry lacks momentum. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market maintained a downward trend in early December. The production load of the aggregation plant has slightly increased, while consumer demand has remained low and flat. Business analysts believe that the long-term supply-demand imbalance of ABS has plagued the market, dragging down spot prices. At the same time, the upstream three material market has risen and fallen, and the mentality of the industry is negative, giving up profits and taking orders. In the short term, there is a lack of positive guidance, and it is expected that downward pressure on ABS will still exist.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market turned positive in early December, with most spot prices of various brands rising. As of December 10th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 13983.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.48% compared to the end of November.
Root cause analysis
Supply side: In early December, the overall load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased and then decreased. At the beginning of the month, the maintenance task of Pingmei Shenma was completed and gradually restarted. Recently, the rotation and maintenance plan for multiple production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been implemented, causing the industry’s operating rate to drop below 80% and the weekly average production to approach 67000 tons. Due to the tight supply of basic grade materials and the early digestion of inventory, the position is relatively controllable. Against the backdrop of decent production and sales pressure within the venue, several aggregation factories have seen a significant increase in ex factory pricing. Overall, the PC supply side has strengthened its support for PC.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the bisphenol A market rose in early December. Although the upstream price of phenol and acetone has bottomed out and remained flat, it is difficult to say whether it is beneficial for the bisphenol A market. However, after digestion in November, the inventory pressure of bisphenol A factory has eased. At the same time, the spot price fell to a low level in the early stage, and enterprises and merchants increased their price raising operations, leading to a rebound in the market after building a bottom in the early stage. On the other hand, the improvement in the consumer side of bisphenol A is limited, and the actual trading atmosphere is average. It is expected that the price increase of bisphenol A in the future may be limited, which will slightly improve the support for PC costs.
On the demand side: Affected by the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises, the load position of PC downstream factories is still not ideal, and stocking is maintained at a low buying price, with weak demand levels. The response of finished product e-commerce and overseas markets is average, and PC terminal enterprises have conservative production schedules. Merchants within the range are following the rise of the aggregation factory, but buyers are cautious in their follow-up attitude. However, there is a strong bullish atmosphere in the future, and the actual transaction price has raised the focus of spot trading. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In early December, the domestic PC market saw a significant increase in prices. The upstream bisphenol A market has stopped falling but has risen, and the cost value has increased to support PC. After the increase in load of domestic PC aggregation plants, they have lowered their prices, and there is an expectation of tightening the basic grades in the future market. The bullish atmosphere in the market is still present. However, the market trading situation remains moderate, and it is expected that the short-term rise in PC prices may be limited.

In early December, the domestic PS market was mainly focused on consolidation and operation. Most spot prices of certain brands have limited fluctuations. According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s PS was 7533.33 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase or decrease of+0.44%.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Recently, the operating rate of the domestic polystyrene industry has continued to rise steadily, with the overall load narrowly increased to about 61%. The supply of genuine materials is abundant, with only a few models experiencing tight supply. The current inventory position is relatively controllable, and there are still expectations of relaxed market supply. Overall, the supply side’s support for PS is average.
Cost factor: The styrene market rose at the beginning of this month. Although the raw material pure benzene market is constrained by demand and hindered from rising. However, recently there have been many unplanned shutdowns of styrene plants, and the supply side is gradually strengthening. At the same time, downstream profits have recovered and production has rebounded, with demand steadily following suit. The supply and demand of styrene in the future may continue to maintain a tight balance pattern, with prices likely to fluctuate within a range, providing sufficient support for the cost side of PS.
On the demand side: Affected by the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises, the downstream electrical casing industry of PS has seen a significant decline in production compared to the same period last year, and there is no expected increase in terminal load in the future. The downstream demand for PS is increasing rapidly, and the overall stocking logic of the enterprise is maintaining a high demand for replenishment, resulting in a slowdown in the flow rate of goods supply. Merchants’ inventory positions are deadlocked, the market maintains a cautious atmosphere, and trading momentum is average. Overall, the demand side provides average support for the PS market.
Future forecast
At the beginning of December, the domestic PS market fluctuated strongly. After the production load of the aggregation plant increased, it remained strong, and consumer demand was mainly balanced. Business analysts believe that upstream styrene has currently risen to a high range, and the subsequent increase may be limited. At the same time, there is a lack of positive guidance on the demand side of PS in the short term, and it is expected that it may enter a consolidation market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market has experienced slight fluctuations and a downward trend this cycle. The average price was 173750 yuan/ton on December 1st and 172250 yuan/ton on December 8th, a decrease of 0.86%. At present, the antimony market is in a stalemate. The mainstream price of 1 # antimony ingots in China remains at 169000 to 172000 yuan/ton, and the price of 99.8% antimony oxide is about 150000 to 152000 yuan/ton. Both domestic and international markets have been experiencing a recent pullback, with weak downstream demand and a weak trading atmosphere, resulting in a slow downward trend in prices. In the near future, antimony prices are expected to remain stable and slightly weak, but the downward space is relatively limited. It is necessary to closely monitor the subsequent changes in demand and cost support.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: Recently, the market price of antimony oxide has been relatively stable, with average performance on the export side. The overall market sentiment is weak, and the market demand is more rigid. The procurement volume is low, and the market trading is relatively quiet.
Photovoltaic: Photovoltaic glass enterprises have maintained stable production capacity in recent times without significant changes, but the demand side has shown weak performance. The order volume of downstream component enterprises continues to shrink, leading to a continuous increase in industry inventory levels, overall high inventory pressure, negative market sentiment, and overall weak trend, further weakening the demand for raw materials.
Outlook for the future: In the short term, the overall fundamental performance is stable with a slight weakness, and antimony prices may be slightly adjusted to remain stable. As the market enters December and approaches the New Year holiday, some downstream companies may release a portion of their year-end replenishment demand. Overall, the current spot prices are relatively stable, and the market continues to be optimistic about export expectations and year-end stocking. The performance of both buyers and sellers is deadlocked, and it is expected that the trend will be stable in the short term with a slight weakness. The focus will be on pre holiday stocking in the future.

1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 120316.67 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the beginning of the week and down 5.31% year-on-year.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 7 times in the past 12 weeks, with a slight increase in nickel prices recently.
Nickel industry chain
On a macro level, the suspension of balance sheet tightening by the Federal Reserve and the expectation of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan at the beginning of the week triggered a divergence in global liquidity expectations, and the US dollar index fell below the 100 mark in response; The unexpected deterioration of ADP employment data in the United States during the week has pushed the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December to 90%, accelerating the weakening of the US dollar, and coupled with the release of trillions of liquidity by the People’s Bank of China, providing emotional support for commodities.
On the supply side, the global nickel supply presents a pattern of “abundant total but differentiated structure”. Indonesia, as a core driving force for global supply growth, continues to release its nickel iron and hydrometallurgical intermediate production capacity, which is the main source of market surplus pressure. However, there is a temporary tension in the upstream raw material end, and the main nickel ore supplier, the Philippines, has tightened its sea freight ore supply due to the impact of cyclical climate patterns.
On the demand side: The stainless steel industry, a traditional consumer sector, is closely related to the prosperity of industries such as construction and real estate, and its demand continues to be sluggish. The consumption growth of nickel in the field of new energy vehicles has fallen short of expectations. Due to the advantage of lower cost lithium iron phosphate batteries in market competition, the expansion of high nickel ternary power batteries is limited, which has suppressed the consumption growth rate of upstream nickel sulfate and related nickel raw materials. The demand for nickel plates in the fields of alloys, electroplating, etc. is relatively rigid but limited in volume, which cannot drive overall demand.
In summary, with the continuous release of production capacity in Indonesia, the pattern of oversupply in the global nickel market has not changed, while traditional demand areas such as stainless steel have entered a seasonal off-season, making it difficult for actual consumption to sustainably digest high inventory levels. It is expected that the short-term high volatility trend of nickel prices will be the main trend.