At the beginning of July, relying on a slight rebound in crude oil and the early entry of PX units into maintenance cycles, PTA fluctuated upwards and continued to rise in the middle and late stages. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushed Brent crude oil to break through $100 per barrel; At the same time, domestic and Asian PX major overhauls have been concentrated, and the operating rate of Asian PX has fallen to a low of 56.6% this year; PTA’s own multiple large factories have synchronously stopped production, with the industry’s lowest operating rate dropping to 53% to 57%, and port spot goods continue to be depleted. Although there was a slight correction at the end of the month, it was later stopped and repaired under the support of crude oil and low inventory. As of July 29th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6017 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.15% from the beginning of the month.
In July, the million ton PX plant underwent centralized maintenance, and the tightening of supply led to a strengthening of PX quotations; Combined with the disturbance of the US Iran conflict, the cost side is supported by favorable factors. In addition, the main PTA facilities were shut down in July, causing monthly production to drop to the lowest point of the year. Social inventory and factory raw material inventory continued to decline. However, the downstream is in the traditional off-season for textiles, with a high temperature off-season in July and a weaving machine operating rate of only about 59%. The finished product inventory of polyester factories is high, and the end users have no intention of actively hoarding goods, only maintaining sporadic purchases for essential needs, dragging down the PTA market. Combined with the expectation of centralized restart of PTA maintenance facilities, a total of 10 million ton PTA facilities are planned to resume production from the end of July to early August. The expectation of loose supply has led to capital taking profits and leaving, causing a rapid drop at the end of the month.
In the future, analysts believe that the short-term PTA maintenance will be completed and the production of facilities will gradually resume, which will slightly relax the supply. However, the pace of PX facility resumption will be slower, and the PX shortage pattern will continue, with costs still providing a bottom line for prices; Combined with the low inventory after the previous destocking, it is difficult for prices to experience a deep decline. With the concentrated replenishment of autumn and winter fabrics in the textile industry starting in late August, the downstream polyester production rate will steadily rise, and the marginal improvement on the demand side will be achieved; Although PTA supply has recovered, the downstream demand growth rate will temporarily exceed the supply growth rate, and the industry will return to a tight balance. The price focus is expected to shift moderately again. We still need to pay attention to the changes in the geopolitical situation of Middle East crude oil, the progress of PX maintenance and restart, and the landing of downstream weaving autumn and winter orders.

Polyethylene showed a pattern of first rising and then fluctuating at a high level in mid to late July. LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 7308 yuan/ton on July 1st and 8198 yuan/ton on July 28th, an increase of 12.18%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9266 yuan/ton on July 1st and 10383 yuan/ton on July 28th, an increase of 12.05%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 9837 yuan/ton on July 1st and 10450 yuan/ton on July 28th, an increase of 6.23%.
The situation between the United States and Iran has repeatedly disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing international crude oil to fluctuate and strengthen, providing strong cost support for polyethylene. However, the uncertainty of oil price fluctuations is significant, making it difficult to sustain a unilateral upward trend in prices and limiting the upward space of the market.
The supply side presents a short-term tight and long-term loose pattern. In early July, the maintenance of multiple sets of equipment dragged down the industry’s construction, and the continuous destocking of ports provided market support. In the second half of the year, the maintenance equipment will gradually resume production, and the subsequent increase in supply will be evident. Long term new production capacity investment continues to limit upward space.
July is the traditional off-season for polyethylene demand, which has become the main suppressing factor in the market. The demand for agricultural film has fallen into a gap, and downstream industries such as packaging and injection molding have been affected by high temperatures, resulting in weak production. The profitability of downstream products is poor, and the procurement maintains a on-demand procurement model, making it difficult for the price increase of raw materials to be smoothly transmitted downwards.
Short term polyethylene is unlikely to rise sharply unilaterally, with a high probability of wide fluctuations at high levels. If crude oil does not further rise significantly, driven by the lack of centralized stocking orders, there is limited room for further upward movement.

On July 27th, the average market price in East China was 420180 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.07% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 419000-421000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 420180 yuan/ton, an increase of 8510 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.
In the morning session, the overall trend of Shanghai tin futures showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the basis structure of contracts in the near and far months changed from premium to discount; After entering the second trading session, the volatility of the market significantly narrowed.
As the center of gravity of tin prices continues to shift upwards, smelters generally adhere to the strategy of raising prices, resulting in a shortage of spot circulation in the market. The current macro level uncertainty has converged, providing support for the operation of tin prices; But after the price rose, the market’s wait-and-see sentiment towards high prices continued to ferment, and downstream terminal purchases were generally cautious, resulting in significant limitations on the actual shipment volume of traders. From the consumer side, the current industry’s daily average demand orders are average, and some end users have weakened their consumption intensity. It is expected that the short-term consumer activity will remain low.
At the macro level, tin prices show a neutral bearish impact, with strong US dollars and high interest rates suppressing high valuations of non-ferrous metals. The market’s risk appetite tends to be cautious before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting. In terms of fundamentals, the tin warehouse receipts of the previous period continued to decline, LME tin inventory continued to decline, and domestic and foreign inventories simultaneously contracted, forming a bottom support for tin prices; The spot premium remains stable, and there has been no significant chasing behavior in the spot market.
Overall, tin prices are expected to maintain a high volatility pattern: the continued depletion of inventory will limit the potential for price declines, while macro pressures will constrain the height of rebound.
Today’s market report shows that small brand products have a premium price range of 500 to 900 yuan/ton for August, while cloud products have a premium price range of approximately 900 to 1200 yuan/ton for August, and cloud tin products have a premium price range of around 1200 to 1500 yuan/ton for August.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices first rose and then fell. As of July 24th, copper prices were reported at 105261.67 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the beginning of the week and up 31.87% year-on-year.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 281425 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 4.69% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the escalation of the US Iran conflict has pushed up oil prices and reignited concerns about inflation; The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has increased (the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 83%); The US dollar index rose to 101.5, and the 10Y US bond interest rate rose to 4.70%; AI chip stocks were sold off, dragging down copper prices.
Supply side: The winter storm in Chile has led to the shutdown of Codelco’s main mines and Caserones mines, exacerbating the shortage of mines. Copper concentrate TC fell to a historical low of -141.5 US dollars per ton, with approximately 16% of global smelting capacity idle. China’s sulfuric acid exports have plummeted by 99.2%, and scrap copper is subject to invoicing restrictions. There is a risk of downward revision in the production guidance of multiple mining companies, leading to a comprehensive tightening of supply.
On the demand side: In June, China’s actual demand increased by 13% year-on-year, with power grid investment of 620 billion yuan, new energy vehicle penetration rate exceeding 40%, and structural growth driven by AI data centers. However, during the off-season of traditional consumption, white goods have weakened, demand differentiation is obvious, and overall resilience still exceeds expectations.
In summary, the winter storm in Chile combined with TC falling to historical lows has led to a comprehensive tightening of supply from mining to smelting; Although the demand side is in the traditional off-season, the resilience supported by the power grid and AI infrastructure has resulted in supply contraction far exceeding the decline in demand, exacerbating the mismatch between supply and demand and continuously reducing inventory. Under the pattern of low inventory and tight spot prices, copper prices are strongly supported, and copper prices are expected to hit high levels within the year. However, caution should be exercised against the risk of a pullback caused by COMEX inventory release and macroeconomic disturbances.

In July, domestic nitrile rubber ended its downward trend in June and emerged from a rebound trend. As of July 23rd, the price was 16725 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.65% from 16150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of July 23rd, Lanhua Nitrile N41E in East China offered a price range of 16900 to 17100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price for 2665 in Russia is 15800 to 16000 yuan/ton.
Upstream raw material butadiene saw a significant increase, while acrylonitrile first fell and then rose. The production cost of nitrile increased significantly, driving up bullish sentiment among traders. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 23, the price of butadiene was 10533 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.80% from 8866 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of July 23rd, the price of acrylonitrile was 9950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% from 10083 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
There is marginal contraction on the supply side. In July, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s nitrile plant started its annual maintenance, and the domestic industry’s operating rate fell from 75% in June to around 68%, leading to a tightening of market supply. After continuous destocking in the first half of the year, social inventory remained relatively low for the year, and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, further boosting spot prices and improving market transactions with a small amount of speculative replenishment.
At present, it is in the traditional off-season for rubber and plastic products, and the average operating rate of downstream automotive seals and oil resistant rubber hose enterprises for nitrile is maintained at a low level of 45% -52%. The increase in terminal vehicle matching orders is limited; The rubber glove industry mainly relies on on-demand procurement and lacks the power to replenish inventory on a large scale. The market transactions are mostly for orders from small and medium-sized enterprises, making it difficult to support a sustained and significant increase in prices.
Market forecast:
Nitrile rubber experienced a continuous decline for three months in the early stage, and the price was found to be at a low level in early July. Recently, the market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the current price is approaching the 10 day and 20 day moving averages. The short-term moving average is gradually leveling off from a downward trend and showing signs of turning, indicating a significant decline in downward momentum. The current price is supported by the short-term moving average, forming a preliminary pattern of stopping the decline. The primary pressure above is located in the dense range of the previous moving average, and if the volume can be matched, it is expected to continue the rebound; If the rebound is weak, there is still a risk of a second bottoming out.