Market trend
In the past week (July 8-14), the domestic PA6 market has shown a pattern of “stable at the beginning and rising later”. The price remained stable at 11833.33 yuan/ton in the early stage, and on July 14th, it increased by 2.54% to 12133.33 yuan/ton. From the perspective of price range, the price positions on the 10th, 20th, and 30th have risen to “high levels”, while the positions on the 60th and 90th are still at “medium low levels”, and the annual position is at the “middle level”. It is worth noting that there have been signals of “10 day breakout above the 20/30 day moving average” and “10/20/30 day super rise” on the technical side, indicating a strong short-term upward momentum and pressure for technical correction.
influencing factors
Cost side
The upstream raw material caprolactam (CPL) market has recently been affected by strong fluctuations in the prices of pure benzene and crude oil, resulting in an increase in the cost center. Part of the caprolactam factories have increased their prices, which has squeezed the production profit margin of polymerized PA6 chips. Under the cost transmission mechanism, PA6 manufacturers are forced to follow up and increase their quotations to pass on the increasing cost pressure. The current strength of raw material prices provides strong support for the bottom of PA6.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, some PA6 production facilities have undergone maintenance and load reduction, resulting in a slight decline in overall industry production and limited increase in market supply. Some factories have increased their willingness to raise prices, while their willingness to sell at low prices has weakened, providing support for spot goods. On the demand side, downstream spinning and modification factories are still in the traditional off-season, and terminal orders have not yet rebounded on a large scale. However, with low raw material prices in the early stage, downstream enterprises have increased their willingness to replenish inventory at low prices, and the volume of essential purchases has slightly increased compared to the previous period. However, the follow-up efforts of the terminal are limited, and the purchasing sentiment is cautious in pursuing price increases at high prices.
Future forecast
It is expected that PA6 will experience strong fluctuations in the short term in the future market. The strong pattern of upstream caprolactam continues, with stable cost support; The pressure on factory inventory has eased, and manufacturers have a strong mentality of raising prices. However, downstream demand during the off-season is difficult to release quickly, and there is resistance to high price transmission. The momentum for sustained and significant price surges is insufficient, and after the rebound, there may be a period of consolidation and oscillation. Focus on tracking the price trend of caprolactam, factory maintenance plans, and downstream autumn and winter order follow-up.

The domestic PP market rebounded in the first half of July. The prices of various brand products have increased significantly. As of July 14th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing was quoted at 9093.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.53% compared to the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
Although there were frequent positive signals of high-level peace talks between the United States and Iran in the Middle East in June, the situation has fluctuated recently and the ceasefire has been affected. The risk of shipping recovery in the Strait of Hormuz has increased, and there are concerns in the market about international crude oil supply, leading to a rapid return of geopolitical premiums. International oil prices have rebounded, and the remote cost value of PP has strengthened; Propene is stimulated and upregulated synchronously. At the same time, the domestic supply has been affected by the parking of companies such as HSBC, resulting in a contraction of supply. Coupled with the recent frequent occurrence of export windows, the further digestion of domestic goods by exports, coupled with favorable guidance from the market, has led to a strengthening of prices. Overall, the raw material market has a positive impact on the cost of PP.
Supply side:
In the first half of July, the overall operating rate of the domestic PP industry remained low with a narrow increase. Market supply within the range is expected to relax. As of press time, the overall load of the domestic industry is over 66%, and the weekly output has rebounded to nearly 780000 tons. The current inventory position is around 540000 tons, and the overall supply of goods is abundant. Overall, the supply side has average support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
The current consumption of polypropylene is still at a low season level, coupled with the compression of terminal profit margins due to rising costs, the downstream market of the industry remains resistant to high prices. However, the strengthening of cost value and futures basis simultaneously stimulates on exchange trading, activating some of the position building orders. Overall, the trading atmosphere tends to be cautious, with many buying small orders at low prices. The improvement in operating rates for small and micro enterprises is limited, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and digest, with a comprehensive operating rate of less than 45%. The overall situation on the demand side is weak, which provides poor support for PP.
Future forecast
In the first half of July, the domestic PP market prices rebounded strongly and rose. Fundamentally speaking, the geopolitical premium on the cost side has returned, the industry load has slightly rebounded from a low level, and the changes in port imports to the port are limited. The off-season market on the demand side continues, and it is difficult to increase volume in the short term. Business Society PP analysts believe that although there is a certain degree of supply-demand contradiction in the current PP market, it is rapidly rising driven by cost value.

Recently, the domestic formic acid market has shown a stable and sideways trend after rising. As of July 13th, the benchmark price of formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2300 yuan/ton, up 9.52% from 2100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
After continuous increases, prices stabilize
The formic acid market experienced several days of continuous price increases and upward trends in early July, and the trading atmosphere in the market gradually rebounded, laying the foundation for maintaining stable prices in the future. After entering July 6th, the upward momentum of the market gradually dissipated, and the overall market returned to a rational and stable range. From the perspective of core supporting factors, the market shipment situation continued to improve in the early stage, effectively driving the overall inventory of the industry back to a reasonable range in the middle. The industry inventory pressure is controllable, providing solid fundamental support for the stable operation of formic acid prices at the current stage, effectively avoiding the risk of price decline, and building a solid market bottom.
From the perspective of market constraints, the formic acid industry is currently in the traditional off-season of consumption, with overall downstream terminal demand being relatively flat. The pace of essential procurement has slowed down, and the market lacks sustained demand growth benefits, making it difficult to push prices up again, which has become the core constraint for maintaining a sideways market trend. Overall, at present, the long short game in the formic acid market tends to be balanced, with a benign decline in inventory forming favorable support, weak demand during the off-season forming upward pressure, and a stable market pattern formed by the hedging of two-way factors.
Market forecast: In the absence of clear favorable factors such as new industry policies, raw material fluctuations, and increased demand, the domestic formic acid market is unlikely to break the current equilibrium pattern in the short term. It is expected that the stable and sideways trend will continue in the future, and mainstream prices are likely to remain stable. There is currently no expectation of significant fluctuations in the market.

On July 10, 2026, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was referenced at 9330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from July 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9350 yuan/ton), with a price reduction of 30 yuan/ton.
1、 Trend analysis
Entering July, the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal 441 # showed a narrow downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the overall market situation of silicon metal was weak and consolidated, with some regions and models experiencing a narrow downward trend. On July 9th, the silicon metal market mainly experienced a decline in multiple regions, with a decrease of about 50-100 yuan/ton. On July 10th, the silicon metal market fluctuated, with some regions experiencing a slight correction and others still experiencing a downward trend. As of July 10th, the price reference for non oxygenated 553 # in East China is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton, the price reference for oxygenated 553 # is around 9000-9100 yuan/ton, and the price reference for 441 # is around 9200-9300 yuan/ton. The price reference for non oxygenated 553 # in Tianjin is around 8900~9000 yuan/ton, for oxygenated 553 # it is around 8900~9000 yuan/ton, for 441 # it is around 9000~9200 yuan/ton, and for oxygenated 553 # in Inner Mongolia it is around 8700~8900 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream market demand for silicon metal remains mainly on demand, and downstream users still have a strong purchasing mentality and are cautious in stocking up. Although the market is currently experiencing a period of high demand and downstream production is expected to increase, overall demand support has not yet brought significant improvement to the market situation.
On the supply side: Currently, the overall inventory performance of the silicon metal market is relatively sufficient, and the loose supply side has brought certain supply pressure to the market. The game between supply and demand is gradually becoming prominent, and the transmission performance of supply and demand is also difficult to make significant changes to the market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the market attention is strong. There is no obvious positive signal released in the market. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate weakly. Juhai still needs to pay attention to the resumption of production in some areas and downstream construction, and whether the future market can gradually balance supply and demand.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in July
The price of ethylene glycol will stop falling in July 2026. As of July 9th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 4346.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% from the market average price of 4391.67 yuan/ton on July 1st; Compared to the market average price of 4291.67 yuan/ton on July 2nd, it has increased by 1.28%.
The price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo is mainly based on basis pricing, and the price closely follows the fluctuations of the futures market. In July 2026, ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded, and the base price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo remained relatively firm. As of the 9th, the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons) has a daily basis price range of+144 to+156 for this week’s spot contract.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 3630-3800 yuan/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in July 2026:
On July 9, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 427500 tons, a decrease of 90000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on June 29, which was 517500 tons.
Summary of the reasons for the halt in the decline of ethylene glycol prices in July 2026:
The logic of stopping the decline of ethylene glycol prices in mid to early July 2026 is concentrated in six dimensions: domestic supply contraction, continuous deep destocking of ports, bottoming out of costs, geopolitical sentiment repair, strengthening of spot basis, and downstream stocking expectations.
1. Domestic equipment is undergoing centralized maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in local supply
The integrated oil to ethylene plant has been shut down, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene to MEG production has dropped to around 50%, resulting in a significant reduction in monthly domestic production increment.
The coal to synthesis gas plant has entered a peak period of maintenance, with multiple sets of coal to synthesis gas plants undergoing centralized load reduction/shutdown. Although some Northwest coal to synthesis gas plant maintenance has been postponed, the overall non ethylene production has weakened compared to the previous period, and the domestic total production has remained at a low level of 53% -56%. The monthly total output has declined, and the supply of spot goods has tightened.
New production capacity deployment window: Large scale oil to gas production facilities will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of the year, with no new production capacity realized in July and no short-term incremental impact on prices.
2. The arrival of imports at the port did not meet expectations, and the port continued to deeply reduce inventory, resulting in a low inventory for the same period
The short-term increase in imports from the Middle East is limited: navigation in the Strait of Hormuz resumed in June, but the release of ethylene glycol floating warehouse cargo from the Middle East was slow. In early July, the forecast for Chinese arrivals remained in single digits for a long time, and the weekly port volume was low. The import increment was concentrated in August, and the total import volume in July remained weak.
The continuous depletion of social inventory in East China ports and across the country: the inventory in the main ports of East China is the lowest in the same period of the past five years; In early July, the port and national social inventory decreased synchronously, and the weekly destocking continued to expand. The market spot liquidity tightened, and there was no logic of accumulating inventory to suppress prices.
Typhoon weather disrupts delivery: In July and August, typhoons occurred frequently along the coast of East China, causing ships to be stranded and unloading to be delayed, further reducing the circulation of spot goods in the short term and strengthening the expectation of tight balance.

3. The cost side forms a clear downward bottom, and losses inhibit manufacturers from continuing to lower prices:
The oil production route is deeply losing money, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices: in early July, the loss of producing ethylene glycol from naphtha expanded to $180/ton, and the continuous decline in prices will force refineries to further reduce their losses, and export sales will be reluctant. The downward space is locked in by costs.
Profit recovery of coal production route, no motivation to sell goods at low prices: coal prices weakened during the same period, coal to ethylene glycol cash flow turned losses into profits, factories have no pressure to sell and clear inventory, and spot prices remain rigid.
Geopolitical fluctuations in crude oil, cost sentiment repair: In early July, the US Iran friction heated up again, and the market was concerned about disruptions in the transportation of the Hormuz waterway. Brent crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, while naphtha rebounded synchronously. The overall valuation of the energy and chemical sector recovered, driving a rebound in the cost sentiment of ethylene glycol.
4. The spot basis continues to strengthen, and traders concentrate on replenishing at low levels:
Spot prices have risen significantly compared to futures: In July, spot prices have risen by 140-165 yuan/ton compared to September contracts. The “near strong, far weak” pattern of tight spot prices in recent months and loose spot prices in distant months has been established, and spot prices have stopped falling first, driving the futures market to stop falling.
5. Downstream polyester off-season marginal improvement, expected early trading in Jinjiu peak season:
The polyester load has slightly rebounded, and the demand for essential purchases has increased: in July, the profits of polyester filament and short fiber processing were restored, and some large factories promoted shipments to digest finished product inventory. The production of polyester has slightly increased, and the consumption of ethylene glycol essential needs has slightly increased compared to the previous month, completely preventing a bottomless decline without demand.
The traditional “Golden September” peak season is expected to ferment: the market will trade in advance during the textile and packaging peak season from August to September, and downstream bottle and weaving enterprises will lock in forward raw materials at low prices, with forward buying orders entering to support prices.
6. Macro and financial sentiment turning point, short positions profit and exit:
Pre market bearish pricing: In June, the market had already traded ahead of schedule with all bearish factors such as cross-strait navigation, increased import volume, polyester off-season, and weak crude oil. In July, there were no new major bearish factors, and bearish funds concentrated on taking profits and leaving the market.