This week, the crude oil market has fluctuated repeatedly, and geopolitical news continues to disturb market expectations. Although crude oil has fallen continuously in the early stage and closed slightly in stages, it has not formed a sustained upward trend guidance, and cost support has fluctuated. As prices continue to decline, traders are cautious and their quotes are continuously decreasing in line with the market trend. Under the stimulation of low prices, some downstream companies have engaged in buying at low prices with a small amount of replenishment operations, but most of them are just small orders for essential needs. There is a lack of willingness to purchase in large quantities, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is light. The price difference related to aromatic hydrocarbons continues to shrink, while the price difference between PX and mixed xylene, as well as pure benzene toluene, narrows synchronously. Downstream processing profits are squeezed, further suppressing procurement enthusiasm. Under the combined effects of cost disturbance and weak demand, the price center of toluene has significantly shifted downwards.
From November 2 to November 9, 2026, the domestic toluene market as a whole showed a narrow range of fluctuations, with an average market price of 8866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week on November 2 and 7600 yuan/ton on the weekend on November 9. The cumulative weekly decline was 14.29%.
Cost aspect:
The trend of crude oil this week is the core variable of toluene cost, and crude oil first fell and then rebounded slightly during the week, lacking sustained upward momentum overall. The cost boost brought by the temporary rebound of crude oil is limited, making it difficult to hedge against the negative impact of the previous oil price drop. As a refined aromatic hydrocarbon product, toluene has a strong correlation with crude oil. The shift in the center of gravity of crude oil has driven down the expected cost of refining, putting sustained downward pressure on toluene spot prices. Crude oil is affected by the alternation of geopolitical news, with a fast fluctuation rhythm. The market has significant differences in expectations for forward costs, and many businesses mainly engage in short-term operations and dare not stockpile for the long term. The cost side has failed to provide stable support for toluene. As of November 6th, the settlement price of the December contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $90.83 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January contract is $98.32 per barrel.
Supply side:
This week, the overall operation of domestic toluene refinery facilities has been stable, with industry production maintaining a medium to high level. There are currently no centralized large-scale maintenance arrangements, and the domestic production of toluene products has remained stable. The external cargo has arrived at the port as planned, and the supply of goods from the main ports in East China is orderly. The port inventory is in a neutral range, and there is no obvious shortage of overall goods. Only partial regional spot prices are temporarily tight, forming a weak support for local quotations, and the regional price difference differentiation is limited, which is not enough to reverse the overall weak market trend. As the market continues to decline, the pressure on refinery shipments is gradually increasing. Some companies are offering discounts to promote transactions, and the supply of circulating goods is sufficient, making it difficult for the supply side to form strong bullish support.

Demand side:
The demand side is the core factor dragging down the toluene market this week, and downstream comprehensive profits continue to be weak. The price difference between the processing of disproportionation and PX units has narrowed, putting pressure on production profits. Downstream units are maintaining normal load operation, and there is a weak willingness to actively stock up; Downstream orders for coatings, solvents, TDI, and other terminal products are not being followed up effectively, and there has been no significant increase in terminal production. Procurement is mainly based on on-demand procurement, with only sporadic dips to replenish positions during the price drop window, and a lack of centralized buying to release orders. The downstream has a low acceptance of high priced goods and generally maintains a wait-and-see attitude. Against the backdrop of weak price difference structure, the buying atmosphere is difficult to fundamentally improve, and the demand side lacks the driving force to continuously drive the market.
PX is one of the main downstream directions of toluene. This week, the price difference between PX and mixed xylene continues to narrow, putting pressure on the processing profits of the equipment and limiting the production enthusiasm of PX enterprises. The device basically maintains its current load operation without obvious plans to increase load. It follows up on the purchase of toluene raw materials as needed, and has a weak willingness to actively increase procurement and stock up in advance. It only replenishes a small amount with production consumption, and has not formed a sustained demand for raw material procurement, which has limited driving effect on toluene.
Market forecast:
The domestic toluene market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile operation in the short term. The cost side of crude oil is affected by the geopolitical situation, with strong volatility and uncertainty, and fluctuating support; There is currently no centralized maintenance plan for the refinery on the supply side, and the pace of port to ship operations is stable. The supply of spot goods remains loose, and there is no significant contraction in the supply side. In terms of demand, it will take some time for downstream processing profits to recover, and the expectation of a rebound in terminal orders is weak. Concentrated buying is difficult to release quickly, and the weak price difference pattern is not likely to change in the short term. Overall, the game between cost disturbance and weak demand will continue, and the upward resistance of toluene is relatively high. The follow-up focus will be on tracking the trend of crude oil prices, changes in port inventories, the commencement of disproportionation and PX units, and the pace of downstream inventory replenishment.

This week, the styrene market experienced a wide decline, with an average price of 11300 yuan/ton on November 2nd and 10280 yuan/ton on November 6th, a decrease of 9.03% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 52.93%.
Macro: On November 5th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $90.52 per barrel, an increase of $2.40 or 2.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January was $98.29 per barrel, an increase of $3.67 or 3.9%.
Cost aspect: The price of pure benzene has dropped significantly. Oil prices are dominated by the US Iran situation, with the Democratic Party winning control of Congress and expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a result, international oil prices have dropped significantly, and pure benzene has been greatly affected by this. Entering November, some maintenance devices will return, and supply expectations will increase; From the demand side, with the decrease in raw material prices, the recovery of downstream profits, the increase in production, and the rebound after the drop in oil prices, it is expected that the market for pure benzene will stabilize in the short term.
Supply and demand side: Recently, the restart and maintenance of some styrene maintenance units have coexisted, resulting in overall tight supply of goods and low port inventory. From the demand side, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials is evident. After the price drops, downstream profits are released and production slightly rebounds, but overall support is insufficient.
Styrene external market: On November 5th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region fell by $60/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $1295-1305/ton. CFR China closing price ranges from $1235 to $1245 per ton.
Market forecast: The current styrene market is mainly affected by fluctuations in crude oil, with low inventory levels, continuous destocking at ports, and weak supply and demand. It is expected that the styrene market will consolidate and operate after a short-term decline.

1、 Market Overview
This week, the sulfur market continued to decline in the early stage, and after a deep correction, it gradually stopped falling and stabilized. On November 5th, the benchmark price of sulfur was reported at 5274.25 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 1.31% compared to 5344.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.
2、 Fundamental analysis
（1） Cost and inventory side: Building a rigid bottom with limited downward space
The current market is in a deep inverted pattern, with high international costs and low port inventories, creating a rigid bottom for sulfur spot prices that cannot fall, and compressing the space for significant deep declines. The cost side and low inventory provide bottom support for the market, and after the full release of short positions in the early stage, the effectiveness of bottom support gradually becomes prominent, restricting prices from continuing to decline significantly.
（2） Demand side: Weak rigid demand, lacking sustained upward momentum
The demand side constrains the upward trend of the market, with phosphate fertilizer in the off-season and weak downstream demand, making it difficult to provide sustained support for essential needs and drive prices to continue rising. The pressure above the market continues to exist, and even with support at the bottom, the bullish momentum is still limited, making it difficult to break out of the trending upward trend.
（3） Market sentiment: rational operation by industry players, long short tug of war
The market mentality tends to be cautious and rational, with conservative operations and a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere. The market has entered a stage of stagnation and tug of war. After a deep pullback in the early stage, bearish forces have been somewhat digested, but a consistent bullish expectation has not yet been formed, and the market maintains a bottom oscillation pattern.
III. Market analysis and judgment
Overall, the sulfur market is currently in a bottom sawing stage, with cost and low inventory forming bottom support and limiting downward space. However, weak demand in the downstream off-season is suppressing upward momentum, and there is currently no trend market. In the short term, it is highly likely to maintain a low volatility operation, with a focus on continuously tracking changes in external market costs, port inventories, and improvements in downstream production and purchasing demand for phosphate fertilizers, in order to observe whether this can trigger a market direction switch.

1、 Price trend
On October 31st, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong was referenced at 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton or 5.66% compared to October 1st (reference price of cyclohexanone was 10600 yuan/ton).
In October, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong region first stabilized and then rose, followed by a slight correction, and the overall upward trend came to an end. During the National Day holiday, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong remained stable at around 10600 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the price of cyclohexanone in Shandong quickly rose and continued to rise. By mid month, the market entered a high-level consolidation stage. As the end of the month approached, the price of cyclohexanone slightly fell to around 11200 yuan/ton. As of October 31st, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong is around 11150-11250 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Supply side: In October, some domestic cyclohexanone supporting facilities underwent maintenance and load reduction, leading to a decline in industry production. The market’s spot circulation tightened, factory inventory was low, and there was a strong willingness to raise prices, providing a core driving force for price increases.
In terms of demand: In the first half of the month, downstream factories of cyclohexanone, such as caprolactam, coatings, solvents, etc., urgently need to follow up. During the low price stage, they will concentrate on replenishing inventory and increase transaction volume, which will provide strong support for the market; After the price reaches a high level, downstream procurement tends to be cautious, the willingness to chase high prices weakens, and the pace of purchasing slows down.
Market mentality: The news of tight supply has led to a strong bullish atmosphere in the market, with traders being reluctant to sell and actively following the rise; After the market surged, market sentiment cooled down and prices slightly loosened.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is relatively weak. After the market price rises to a high level, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement may be suppressed. In addition, at the end of the month, the cost raw material market has declined, and the cost bottom support has loosened. The overall positive support may be loosened. It is expected that in the short term, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will continue to follow the trend at the end of the month, and there is a possibility of a high-level decline in the market. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.

On October 31, 2026, the domestic market price reference for silicon metal # 441 was 9560 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 0.63% compared to October 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9500 yuan/ton).
1、 Price market description
In October, the domestic silicon metal 441 # market as a whole showed a running trend of “first rising base note” and “high consolidation”. At the beginning of the month, the domestic market price of metal silicon 441 # remained stable at 9500 yuan/ton. In mid month, the center of gravity of the 441 # market adjusted upwards, and the price rose to around 9610 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market slightly fell and began to fluctuate downwards. At the end of the month, the market price of silicon metal remained stable at around 9560 yuan/ton, with a slight increase at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month. As of October 31, the domestic market price of silicon metal 441 # was around 9250-9850 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental analysis
In terms of supply: In the early part of the month, some production areas of metallic silicon were subject to power restrictions and maintenance, and the supply of goods was temporarily tightened. The spot circulation of industrial silicon was tight, and coupled with the approaching dry season in Sichuan and Yunnan, the top enterprises in the north had sufficient orders and had intentions to close down. The industrial silicon prices were strong due to strong industrial fundamentals, and the market sentiment increased, driving a wave of rapid market price increases. Subsequently, with the gradual recovery of production capacity and the increase in market supply, the upward momentum weakened, and prices surged before falling back under pressure.
In terms of demand, downstream silicon metal, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy enterprises’ essential procurement support the market, and there is a centralized replenishment of inventory during the price increase stage; But after the high price, downstream procurement tends to be cautious, with weak willingness to chase after high prices, mainly relying on on-demand procurement, making it difficult to sustain price increases.
In terms of cost: 3. Electricity and raw materials such as silica provide certain cost support for metallic silicon, which comes from the bottom support and is stable, with limited price decline.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the negotiation atmosphere in the domestic silicon metal market is light and mild, and the cost support for silicon metal is still acceptable. The downstream demand for organic silicon and alloys continues to exist, providing a bottom line for market prices; It is expected that in the short term, the silicon metal market will mainly experience high-level fluctuations. We also need to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand, as well as the situation of construction.