The price of ethylene glycol fell in July
The price of ethylene glycol will stop falling in July 2026. As of July 9th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 4346.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% from the market average price of 4391.67 yuan/ton on July 1st; Compared to the market average price of 4291.67 yuan/ton on July 2nd, it has increased by 1.28%.
The price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo is mainly based on basis pricing, and the price closely follows the fluctuations of the futures market. In July 2026, ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded, and the base price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo remained relatively firm. As of the 9th, the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons) has a daily basis price range of+144 to+156 for this week’s spot contract.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 3630-3800 yuan/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in July 2026:
On July 9, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 427500 tons, a decrease of 90000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on June 29, which was 517500 tons.
Summary of the reasons for the halt in the decline of ethylene glycol prices in July 2026:
The logic of stopping the decline of ethylene glycol prices in mid to early July 2026 is concentrated in six dimensions: domestic supply contraction, continuous deep destocking of ports, bottoming out of costs, geopolitical sentiment repair, strengthening of spot basis, and downstream stocking expectations.
1. Domestic equipment is undergoing centralized maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in local supply
The integrated oil to ethylene plant has been shut down, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene to MEG production has dropped to around 50%, resulting in a significant reduction in monthly domestic production increment.
The coal to synthesis gas plant has entered a peak period of maintenance, with multiple sets of coal to synthesis gas plants undergoing centralized load reduction/shutdown. Although some Northwest coal to synthesis gas plant maintenance has been postponed, the overall non ethylene production has weakened compared to the previous period, and the domestic total production has remained at a low level of 53% -56%. The monthly total output has declined, and the supply of spot goods has tightened.
New production capacity deployment window: Large scale oil to gas production facilities will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of the year, with no new production capacity realized in July and no short-term incremental impact on prices.
2. The arrival of imports at the port did not meet expectations, and the port continued to deeply reduce inventory, resulting in a low inventory for the same period
The short-term increase in imports from the Middle East is limited: navigation in the Strait of Hormuz resumed in June, but the release of ethylene glycol floating warehouse cargo from the Middle East was slow. In early July, the forecast for Chinese arrivals remained in single digits for a long time, and the weekly port volume was low. The import increment was concentrated in August, and the total import volume in July remained weak.
The continuous depletion of social inventory in East China ports and across the country: the inventory in the main ports of East China is the lowest in the same period of the past five years; In early July, the port and national social inventory decreased synchronously, and the weekly destocking continued to expand. The market spot liquidity tightened, and there was no logic of accumulating inventory to suppress prices.
Typhoon weather disrupts delivery: In July and August, typhoons occurred frequently along the coast of East China, causing ships to be stranded and unloading to be delayed, further reducing the circulation of spot goods in the short term and strengthening the expectation of tight balance.

3. The cost side forms a clear downward bottom, and losses inhibit manufacturers from continuing to lower prices:
The oil production route is deeply losing money, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices: in early July, the loss of producing ethylene glycol from naphtha expanded to $180/ton, and the continuous decline in prices will force refineries to further reduce their losses, and export sales will be reluctant. The downward space is locked in by costs.
Profit recovery of coal production route, no motivation to sell goods at low prices: coal prices weakened during the same period, coal to ethylene glycol cash flow turned losses into profits, factories have no pressure to sell and clear inventory, and spot prices remain rigid.
Geopolitical fluctuations in crude oil, cost sentiment repair: In early July, the US Iran friction heated up again, and the market was concerned about disruptions in the transportation of the Hormuz waterway. Brent crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, while naphtha rebounded synchronously. The overall valuation of the energy and chemical sector recovered, driving a rebound in the cost sentiment of ethylene glycol.
4. The spot basis continues to strengthen, and traders concentrate on replenishing at low levels:
Spot prices have risen significantly compared to futures: In July, spot prices have risen by 140-165 yuan/ton compared to September contracts. The “near strong, far weak” pattern of tight spot prices in recent months and loose spot prices in distant months has been established, and spot prices have stopped falling first, driving the futures market to stop falling.
5. Downstream polyester off-season marginal improvement, expected early trading in Jinjiu peak season:
The polyester load has slightly rebounded, and the demand for essential purchases has increased: in July, the profits of polyester filament and short fiber processing were restored, and some large factories promoted shipments to digest finished product inventory. The production of polyester has slightly increased, and the consumption of ethylene glycol essential needs has slightly increased compared to the previous month, completely preventing a bottomless decline without demand.
The traditional “Golden September” peak season is expected to ferment: the market will trade in advance during the textile and packaging peak season from August to September, and downstream bottle and weaving enterprises will lock in forward raw materials at low prices, with forward buying orders entering to support prices.
6. Macro and financial sentiment turning point, short positions profit and exit:
Pre market bearish pricing: In June, the market had already traded ahead of schedule with all bearish factors such as cross-strait navigation, increased import volume, polyester off-season, and weak crude oil. In July, there were no new major bearish factors, and bearish funds concentrated on taking profits and leaving the market.

Market trend
This week (July 1-7), PA6 spot prices showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising. From July 1st to July 6th, the market benchmark price remained stable at 11633.33 yuan/ton, and the market continued to consolidate sideways; On July 7th, the price rose by 1.72% to 11833.33 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in the central price during the week. From the perspective of the moving average signal, on July 7th, there was a golden cross signal where the 10 day moving average crossed the 20 day moving average, and the short-term trend turned from weak to strong; The annual price position is in the median range, and the bottom support is evident. The downward trend that lasted for nearly three months in the early stage has temporarily come to an end.
influencing factors
Cost side
The upstream caprolactam continued to operate at a low level in the early stage, and some units underwent load reduction and maintenance due to industry processing losses. The tightening of raw material supply led to the stabilization of caprolactam and the emergence of bottom support for PA6 production costs, significantly closing the downward space. International crude oil fluctuates narrowly, with no significant negative impact on the energy sector, suppressing the raw material pure benzene. The cost side no longer continues to drag down slice prices; At the same time, after a deep pullback in raw materials in the early stage, the losses of current slicing enterprises have narrowed, and the cost surface is moderately prepared to provide upward momentum, providing a foundation for a slight rebound this week.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the centralized maintenance of the caprolactam plant has led to a contraction in raw material supply, resulting in a low level of production in the polymerization factory. The increase in market circulation of goods is limited, and the pace of inventory turnover among manufacturers has slightly accelerated. As a result, the willingness of holders to sell at low prices has weakened. On the demand side, downstream modified plastics and spinning enterprises had low raw material inventory in the early stage, and after the price stopped falling, the demand for replenishing inventory was concentrated. The terminal on-demand procurement volume slightly increased month on month, and market trading improved compared to the early stage of the first ten days; However, the traditional off-season in the industry has not completely ended, and downstream bulk stocking willingness is limited. Demand is only temporarily recovering, making it difficult to form a sustained strong driving force.
Future forecast
It is expected that PA6 will maintain a low-level strong oscillation trend in the short term, with moderate upward momentum, but there is insufficient room for a significant continuous rise. The short-term operating range is based on 11700-12100 yuan/ton. The sustained strengthening of the market requires meeting two major conditions: the continuous price increase of caprolactam and the concentrated bulk replenishment of downstream terminals; If the raw material side weakens again, the market will return to narrow range consolidation.

1、 Overall price trend
As of July 6th, the benchmark price for imported potassium chloride trading was 3566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% compared to 3583.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of July. From June 24th to early July, prices fluctuated upwards, with the 10 day moving average continuing to rise and prices surging to the high range; In early July, the market turned from stable to downward, with prices slightly falling, ending the previous upward trend.
2、 Interpretation of Mean Deviation Index
The 10 day moving average rose slightly before leveling off and falling back, with a positive narrowing of the moving average, indicating a slowing down trend rather than a downward signal. However, the upward momentum has weakened, and the price has entered a stage of horizontal consolidation, without initiating a downward trend.
3、 Analysis of Price Levels 5
From the price range of 5 levels, potassium chloride has dropped to a low level in the 10 day range, remains at a medium high level in the 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, and one-year cycles, and is at a medium level in the 90 day range.
The short-term price has fallen back to the stage low, but the medium and long-term prices are still in the high range, and there is still price suppression above. The short-term decline belongs to a high-level correction, not a trend oriented sharp decline, and the overall downward space is relatively limited.
4、 Fundamental driven reasons
1. Weakening of international cost margin: International potassium fertilizer prices have slightly loosened, overseas port arrival costs have declined, and the circulation of potassium chloride sources at ports is sufficient, resulting in a decrease in cost support.
2. Domestic demand has entered the off-season: the stage of agricultural field fertilization has basically ended, and downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have seen a decline in production, with only a small amount of essential needs being replenished. Market procurement demand has significantly weakened, and demand support is insufficient, which is the core factor causing price stagnation and decline. The accumulation of port inventory has increased the willingness of traders to ship, and some low-priced sources have lowered the overall market price.
5、 Prediction of future market trends
Short term potassium chloride has entered a high-level correction phase, with the upward momentum diminishing and the moving average continuing to contract in a positive direction, resulting in a narrow and weak market consolidation. At present, it is only a slight pullback caused by the off-season demand. Before the start of autumn fertilizer stocking, the market is unlikely to have a significant rebound.
In the medium to long term, there is a bottom support for the import cost of large contracts, and prices will not experience a significant decline. It is expected that from mid to late July to August, with the gradual opening of autumn fertilizer stocking and the recovery of downstream demand, prices are expected to regain support.

This week, the acrylic acid market has shown a sustained downward trend. As of July 6th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7116.67 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 7.38% compared to 7683.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of July.
However, the trend of its main raw material propylene is completely opposite. During the same period, the benchmark price of propylene was 7694.33 yuan/ton, which has risen by 3.82% since the beginning of the month. The rise in raw material costs and the decline in product prices have formed a clear deviation, and the supply-demand game dominates the current market trend.
1、 Spot moving average spread indicator: The downward phase has accelerated, and the downward trend has been temporarily suspended before entering consolidation
From June 29th to early July, the 10 day moving average remained below the 20 day moving average, and the Business Society spot price spread was negative, showing a negative expansion of the spread, corresponding to the accelerated decline of acrylic acid in the early part of this week. On June 29th and July 1st, there were consecutive daily declines of over 3%, and prices quickly fell.
On July 4th and 5th, the price of acrylic acid remained unchanged at 7116.67 yuan/ton for two consecutive days and will not continue to decline. Although the bearish pattern of the 10 day and 20 day moving averages has not changed, the moving average has not yet turned from negative to positive, and there is no trend of rebound signal, the negative expansion trend of the moving average has clearly converged, the downward momentum has significantly weakened, the downward speed has slowed down, and the market has entered a period of consolidation and oscillation.
2、 Price Level 5: The entire cycle has fallen to a low level, and the downward space has significantly narrowed
The prices of acrylic acid on the 10th, 20th, 30th, 60th, 90th, and one-year cycles are all in the low range. After this round of significant decline, the price of acrylic acid has fallen to a temporary low level, and the space for further significant decline is suppressed. Traders’ willingness to sell at low prices is gradually decreasing.
3、 Deviation between cost and supply and demand: The rise in raw material propylene prices supports costs, while weak downstream demand suppresses the market
On the cost side, there is a reverse support: this week, the price of propylene raw materials rose by 3.82% against the trend, and the cost pressure on acrylic acid production enterprises increased. Manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices has also increased, limiting the further downward space for acrylic acid.
The supply and demand fundamentals are still weak: the operating load of on-site equipment on the supply side is stable, the market supply is abundant, and sufficient supply suppresses prices; Downstream terminal enterprises have a cautious purchasing mentality, only maintaining small orders for essential needs, with insufficient willingness to stock up in large quantities, and weak demand making it difficult to drive price rebounds. The balance between cost support and weak demand has become the core contradiction in the current market.
Prediction of future market trends
Short term acrylic acid is difficult to break free from the low-level oscillation pattern. The moving average indicator has not yet sent a signal of turning upward, and the price lacks trend driven rebound momentum; However, the cost support brought by the raw material propylene and the historically low product prices will prevent prices from falling sharply again.
The follow-up market will focus on two points: firstly, whether downstream essential procurement can gradually increase volume and improve the weak demand situation; The second is whether the price of propylene raw materials can continue to rise and strengthen cost support. If there is no significant improvement in demand, the price of acrylic acid may continue to remain low around 7100 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic light rare earth market price trend has risen. On July 2, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 663 points, a decrease of 34.16% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 144.65% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
This week, the prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide in China have all increased. As of the weekend, the price of neodymium oxide was 817500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.15%; The price of neodymium metal is 990000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.54%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 807500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.89%; The price of praseodymium metal is 9.39 million yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 2.59%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 907500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.25%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 760000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.47%.
This week, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, and the trend of core product prices has increased. This round of increase is the result of a triple logical resonance of rigid tightening on the supply side, continuous catalysis on the policy side, and the expected peak season on the demand side.
1、 Supply side: Double contraction caused by a sharp drop in imports and reduced recycling production
Myanmar is an important source of rare earth imports for China, but in May 2026, China’s imports of rare earth oxides (REO) from Myanmar plummeted by 72% year-on-year and 54% month on month. Overall, the import volume of rare earth minerals in China in May was 6458.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 44.4% and a month on month decrease of 23.8%. Affected by stricter tax policies, the operating rate of rare earth waste recycling enterprises has significantly declined, and the production of recycled oxides in June 2026 has decreased by 19.5% compared to the previous month. Affected by the dual contraction of imports and recycling, the domestic production of praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased by 31% year-on-year in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 18%. As a result, the market for light rare earths has risen.
2、 Policy side: Strategic upgrading and continuous increase in export control
On June 15th, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law officially came into effect, and rare earths were officially included in the national strategic mineral resources catalog. At the same time, the national rare earth mining total quota for 2026 will only be slightly increased by 5%, and the increase in the quota for light rare earth mining will be limited; The second batch of rare earth mining indicators showed a year-on-year decrease, and the quota for rare earth mining of rock and mineral types was significantly reduced. On June 22, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to include ten overseas entities in the dual-use item export control list, including two top rare earth companies in the United States. The continuous tightening of export controls has forced overseas customers to increase their domestic procurement efforts, with both domestic and foreign demand supporting each other, further exacerbating the tight supply of domestic spot goods and leading to an upward trend in market prices.
3、 Demand side: Expected start of peak season, multiple tracks with concentrated volume increase

The second half of the year is the peak season for production and sales in fields such as automobiles and industrial robots, and the procurement of magnetic raw materials often begins around July. As the end of the quarter approaches, magnetic material manufacturing enterprises are conducting monthly raw material bidding and procurement, and market transaction orders are being released in a concentrated manner. In addition, from January to May 2026, the cumulative export volume of rare earth magnetic materials in China increased by 16% compared to the same period in 2024; From January to May 2026, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles in China increased by 2.5% year-on-year; The cumulative output of industrial robots increased by 47.8% year-on-year; Emerging fields such as wind power and humanoid robots continue to drive up the consumption of high-end permanent magnet materials, and the increase in downstream demand supports the rise of the light rare earth market.
In the short term, the rare earth market is prone to rise but difficult to fall. The global and Chinese supply and demand of praseodymium neodymium oxide are expected to remain tight in the medium to long term, and the price center of rare earths is expected to gradually rise. With the increasing demand in downstream fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power installation, and industrial motors, coupled with the continuous tightening of rare earth industry control, the expectation of strategic storage, and the recovery of overseas high-end manufacturing demand, the supply and demand pattern of rare earths is expected to tighten again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.