This week, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have declined, with prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal all showing a decline. As of the 6th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.405 million yuan/ton, a 1.06% decrease this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.365 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 1.925 million yuan/ton, with a 1.03% decline in price trend this week.
The price trend of heavy rare earth market has declined this week due to multiple factors such as weak terminal demand, short-term supply pressure, cooling market sentiment, and external technology substitution expectations.
Supply side: high inventory, poor circulation
The overall heavy rare earth market is in a state of oversupply, with high inventory levels that have suppressed prices; In addition, the limited invoicing quota for rare earth trade has led to an increase in transaction costs and a decrease in circulation efficiency, resulting in a situation of “difficult to sell goods with value but no market”, further suppressing market activity. Myanmar is the most important source of heavy rare earths in the world, accounting for about 57% of China’s total rare earth imports. Since 2026, Myanmar’s mineral imports have plummeted by 42% year-on-year. Some ports have restricted customs clearance, directly cutting off the supply of key medium and heavy rare earth raw materials. At the same time, Vietnam has legislated to ban the export of rare earth raw materials since that year, further cutting off external supplementary channels and reducing import sources, resulting in a limited decline in the heavy rare earth market.
Demand side: Downstream enters off-season, with low purchasing willingness
The largest downstream application of heavy rare earths is permanent magnet materials in the fields of new energy vehicles and wind power. The second and third quarters are usually the traditional off-season for the new energy vehicle and wind power industries, resulting in insufficient orders for magnetic material companies and a decrease in operating rates to 60% -65%. Terminal enterprises are suppressing prices, and magnetic material factories generally adopt a conservative strategy of “on-demand procurement and zero inventory”, refusing high prices, resulting in a significant contraction of demand for heavy rare earths. In order to reduce costs, some mid to low end magnetic materials have reduced the addition of heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium in production, further suppressing demand and causing a decline in the heavy rare earth market.
Market forecast: The recent decline in the heavy rare earth market is mainly due to the combined effect of insufficient short-term demand and cooling market sentiment. Starting from 2026, the global supply and demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, and rare earth prices are expected to remain stable with some progress.

1、 Market Overview
In July, the domestic PA6 spot market experienced a bottoming out recovery, followed by a slight decline after a surge. At the beginning of the month, the spot price remained stable at 12666.67 yuan/ton. In the first half of the month, relying on downstream stage replenishment, there was an upward trend. The short-term moving average crossed the long-term moving average one after another, and the price surged all the way to above 12600 yuan/ton; The upward momentum gradually weakened in the latter half of the month, and the market fluctuated sideways. At the end of the month, there was slight pressure and a slight decline. On August 4th, the spot price fell to 12500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% for the day. Throughout the month, the market has already departed from the low range of June, and the annual price is at the mid to high level of the one-year cycle, showing an overall upward trend of first rising and then falling.
2、 Cost analysis
The weekly closing price of upstream raw material caprolactam in July remained stable for a long time, and the upstream pure benzene market fluctuated narrowly. There was no significant rise or fall in the raw material end, providing stable bottom cost support for PA6 chips.
The production load of the caprolactam industry is stable, the market supply of goods is sufficient, and the initiative in raw material prices is insufficient; However, due to device maintenance and enterprise controlled shipment, the downward space for raw material prices is also limited. Overall, the trend of raw material costs this month is relatively stable, and the fluctuation of PA6 slicing market is mainly dominated by downstream supply and demand fundamentals. Raw materials only play a bottom support role and are difficult to drive slicing to rise significantly.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
1. Supply side
Most of the domestic PA6 production enterprises are operating normally, and the overall operating load of the industry remains high, with sufficient supply of market basic goods. At the beginning of the month, the slicing price was at a low level for the year, and some factories took the initiative to reduce operating rates, control spot shipments, and digest the backlog of inventory in the early stage; With the price recovery, manufacturers gradually resumed normal production scheduling, and the supply of spot goods increased accordingly.
Mid month market price increases have driven traders’ enthusiasm for stockpiling, resulting in an increase in social inventory; At the end of the month, downstream procurement cooled down, and factory inventory once again piled up. Manufacturers lowered their spot prices to accelerate shipments, and the overall market supply is in a relaxed state.
2. Demand side
July belongs to the traditional off-season of the textile and injection molding modification industries, but downstream textile enterprises of nylon have started stocking up ahead of the peak season, which has driven the recovery of demand in the slicing market and is the core driving force behind this round of price increases.
In the first half of the year, downstream yarn and synthetic fiber factories urgently needed to replenish their inventory, and the market transaction atmosphere was hot, driving up spot prices; The first round of raw material stocking in the second half of the year has basically ended, and orders for terminal fabrics and home textiles are still weak. Downstream factories have stopped taking large quantities of goods and turned to sporadic purchases on demand, causing a decline in market transaction heat. At the same time, the demand for injection molding modification sector is flat, and the orders in the automotive parts and plastic products industries are weak, making it difficult to provide additional upward momentum. The weak demand at the end of the month has led to a slight decline in prices.
4、 Short term forecast
The domestic PA6 market is likely to experience high volatility in the short term. The trend of the cost side caprolactam market is stable, with solid bottom support; At present, the spot price is at the mid to high level of the year, and there is a certain upward pressure above it.

In the coming period, the traditional peak season of the textile industry is gradually approaching, and there is an expectation of further release of downstream textile enterprises’ stocking demand, which will provide favorable support for slice prices; However, the current supply of spot goods is abundant, and the recovery speed of terminal finished product orders is relatively slow. It is difficult for the market to experience a unilateral surge, and the overall trend will maintain range oscillation, waiting for downstream peak season orders to land.

This week, the domestic naphtha market remained stable at a high level. Data shows that the benchmark price of naphtha on August 4th was 7720 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of August. The price range display shows that the 10 day period is at a medium high level, the 20 90 day cycle is all at a high level, the one-year period is at a medium level, the medium and long-term price levels are rising, and spot prices are at a temporary high level.
supply side
Supply contraction is the core support of the market. Disruption of some overseas refinery facilities has led to a decrease in Asian arbitrage imports; The maintenance and adjustment of domestic refineries have led to a contraction in commodity circulation, providing a support for the market. Due to the fluctuation of international crude oil caused by the disturbance of the international situation, the cost side has formed strong support for naphtha, limiting the space for deep price correction.
Demand side
The downstream cracking and aromatic hydrocarbon units will continue to operate, with a demand for rigid raw material procurement. But currently, naphtha is at a high level, downstream processing profits are compressed, and the willingness of enterprises to chase high prices is weak. They mainly purchase on demand, and there are not many proactive actions to replenish inventory. The demand side lacks the driving force to continue to push up prices.
Market prediction
The logic of short-term supply tightening is still in place, with solid support on the cost side, and naphtha is likely to continue its high volatility pattern. However, prices have generally reached high levels in each cycle, and downstream capacity is limited, making it difficult to make a significant upward breakthrough. The focus will be on the international crude oil trend, the arrival of imported cargo at ports, the progress of domestic refinery maintenance, and changes in downstream plant operation.

1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices fluctuated and rose unilaterally in July. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 102195 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 106055 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 3.78% and a year-on-year increase of 34.95%.
The copper spot price in July was higher than the main contract price, indicating strong support for copper prices in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fell significantly in July. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 249850 tons, down 23.09% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, in July, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5% -3.75%, but the wording was hawkish. Three insiders advocated a 25 basis point rate hike, while Walsh clarified that the 2% inflation target remained unchanged and retained the option of subsequent rate hikes. The lower than expected CPI in June in the United States once cooled down expectations of interest rate hikes, but the ongoing escalation of the US Iran conflict in the Middle East and restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up oil prices, fueling concerns about inflationary trading and policy shifts. The annualized quarter on quarter GDP growth in the United States was 1.5%, lower than the previous value of 2.1%. At the interest free meeting in August, the market will search for policy clues from economic data. The US dollar index remained stagnant at a high level near 101 points in July, and the pressure on copper prices from the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has weakened. However, oil prices remain high, and the US dollar index may continue to operate at a high level.
Supply side: In June, China’s electrolytic copper production was 1.145 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% compared to the previous month; According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper production in June was 1.334 million tons, with a cumulative output of 7.608 million tons from January to June, an increase of 5.20% year-on-year. In July, China added 300000 tons of crude refining capacity, but the supply of copper mines is difficult to match the expansion speed of smelting. Smelting plants exhibit the characteristics of “many maintenance enterprises, long maintenance periods, and significant impact on production”. Due to the shortage of raw materials and shrinking profits, the production enthusiasm of smelting plants has declined, and a turning point in refined copper production is emerging.
Downstream: July is the traditional seasonal off-season, and the overall operating rate of copper material enterprises is under pressure. As of July 30th, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods was 60.07%, a decrease of 2.49 percentage points from the previous week; The operating rate of recycled copper rods is only 18.9%. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises recorded 68.96%, a decrease of 1.88 percentage points compared to the previous period. High copper prices have a certain degree of suppression on downstream new orders, and downstream enterprises have slowed down their procurement pace, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory for essential needs, resulting in relatively flat overall demand performance.
There is a clear differentiation in segmented fields. Air conditioning/copper pipes showed weak performance, with household air conditioning production declining by 13.4% year-on-year in July and further weakening in August; Copper foil has shown impressive performance, with a production rate of 91.48% in June. The high prosperity of the AI and lithium battery industries continues to drive demand growth; The power grid/cables maintain resilience, and the power grid brings stable operation of copper rods at over 75%; The production and sales of new energy vehicles maintain high prosperity, and the demand for power batteries is strong. It is predicted that the apparent consumption of refined copper in China will decline by 0.6% in July and August, with the growth rate dropping from 4.4% in the first half of the year to 1.0% in July.

According to the annual price comparison chart, copper prices have fluctuated strongly in August over the past five years.
Comprehensive analysis of influencing factors
Positive factors: ① TC depth negative value hits a historic low, global copper ore increment significantly reduced to 260000 tons, and the shortage of hard minerals at the mining end provides solid bottom support; ② Domestic social inventory has hit a new low this year, with LME cancellations accounting for over 60% of warehouse receipts, and global circulating inventory continues to tighten; ③ The “siphon” effect in the United States has led to even tighter supply in non American regions; ④ AI computing infrastructure continues to increase copper demand, bringing new demand increments; ⑤ The “15th Five Year Plan” for power grid construction is clear, and domestic policies provide support for mid-term demand expectations.
Negative factors: ① In the traditional off-season of July and August, air conditioning production declined significantly, and downstream new orders were weak; ② The US Iran conflict remains unresolved, with fluctuating expectations of interest rate hikes and high macroeconomic uncertainty; ③ The results of the US copper 232 investigation are still pending, and if tariffs are imposed, it will impact the global copper trade pattern; ④ At the end of July, there was a slight accumulation of domestic social inventory, which restricted the upward space of copper prices.
In summary, the “shortage of mining resources and low inventory levels” provide bottom support, but the traditional off-season of consumption and signs of inventory stabilization constrain upward space. There will be no Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in August, but the US Iran conflict continues, oil prices remain high, and expectations of interest rate hikes remain unchanged. Looking ahead to August, copper prices lack strong drivers of significant unilateral fluctuations and are expected to mainly fluctuate in the high range.

As of July 31st, the price of 0 # zinc was 24841 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.05% compared to the zinc price of 24342 yuan/ton on July 1st.
fundamentals
At the macro level, the July Federal Reserve interest rate meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the weakening of the US dollar index provided pricing support for zinc prices. However, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2% in July, and the domestic economic outlook declined, which suppressed expectations for industrial metal demand.
Supply side: The tight mining side is currently the most core bullish factor
The processing fee for zinc concentrate continues to operate at a low level, and the domestic processing fee in July continued to decline compared to June, reflecting that the tight situation on the raw material side has not eased. The dependence on domestic zinc concentrate imports has risen to over 40%, and the sustained low domestic and foreign price ratios have led to import losses expanding to nearly -2000 yuan/ton. The limited inflow of imported ore has further exacerbated the tension in the domestic mining sector. Low processing fees continue to squeeze smelting profits, suppressing the willingness of some smelting enterprises to start production. Domestic refineries are expected to reduce production by the end of the second and third quarters. Due to the expected decrease in smelting production, zinc prices may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.
Demand side: in the traditional off-season of consumption
The operating rate of the galvanizing industry has slightly decreased compared to last week. Downstream acceptance of the current price is limited, and cautious purchasing mentality dominates, with companies only maintaining rigid procurement. The overall inventory of galvanized sheet is high, and there is no significant improvement in terminal orders.
Inventory end
There is a significant differentiation of internal looseness and external tightness: LME zinc inventory continues the pace of destocking, and as of July 31, it has dropped to 99800 tons, providing temporary bottom support for zinc prices; However, the domestic inventory base is relatively high, and there is a huge gap between the internal and external inventory bases, which hinders the transmission path from tight mining to shortage of ingots. Domestic high inventory continues to suppress the upward elasticity of zinc prices.
comprehensive analysis
The zinc price is expected to continue its range oscillation pattern in August, with an expected operating range of 24200-25200 yuan/ton. The support below is solid. The tight mining situation is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the low operation of processing fees will continue to squeeze smelting profits. If the expected production reduction is gradually realized, the supply side will form a substantial tightening. The continuous depletion of LME inventory also provides bottom support for prices. The space above is limited. The high suppression of domestic social inventory, weak demand during the off-season of consumption, and high inventory of galvanized sheet jointly constrain the upward trend of zinc prices.