In the second half of October, the overall trend continued to decline and fluctuate weakly. As of October 28th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 5866 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% compared to the middle of the month.
Analysis of Market Driving Factors
Supply side: After the resumption of production, the spot supply capacity of the device has improved, and the inventory pressure of some manufacturers has increased, resulting in an increased willingness to ship.
Demand side: The demand for electrolyte solvents has weakened significantly, and downstream demand for industrial grade multidimensional rigid procurement is limited, with limited acceptance of high prices.
On the cost side, the recent trends of methanol and epichlorohydrin have diverged, and the cost support has loosened compared to the previous period, making it difficult to sustain the upward movement of DMC.
Market forecast:
Short term dimethyl carbonate is likely to maintain weak stability and oscillation, with insufficient driving force for further significant increases.
Shortfall factor: With sufficient supply, industry operating rates recovering, and ample supply circulation, if factory inventory continues to accumulate, manufacturers may increase the frequency of flexible adjustments to their offers. Weak demand has led to a certain reduction in terminal consumption, with a more significant weakening in the demand for electrolytes and solvents. Other downstream industries tend to maintain on-demand procurement or follow up on urgent needs, making it difficult to effectively digest the newly added supply.
Supporting factors: If methanol and epichlorohydrin strengthen again, or if downstream inventory replenishment and foreign trade orders rebound, prices may receive temporary support.

In the past week (October 21-27), the domestic PA66 market has maintained a horizontal and volatile pattern, with mainstream ex factory quotes remaining basically unchanged. The average spreads on the 5th, 10th, and 20th have all returned to zero, with no clear long short signals. The market volatility is minimal, and trading is light, mainly consisting of long order deliveries and sporadic rigid demand transactions.
cost analysis
The prices of upstream adiponitrile and hexamethylenediamine remained stable this week, without significant fluctuations. The cost side formed a bottom support, but the upward momentum was insufficient. At the current slicing price, the industry’s production profit margin is limited, and the cost side does not have the conditions to drive prices to continue rising. The risk of unilateral fluctuations in raw materials has not yet emerged.
Supply and demand analysis
In terms of supply, the mainstream PA66 production facilities in China have maintained a moderate level of operation, and the supply of sliced goods is sufficient, but the pressure of circulating inventory still exists; At the same time, the newly-built production capacity of 80000 tons of PA66 in Suizibo is approaching production, and the expected increase in supply continues to suppress the market’s upward space. Major factories have a strong willingness to stabilize prices, but there is insufficient motivation to actively raise prices. The demand side is clearly differentiated, with relatively stable orders for high-end industrial fibers such as airbag filaments and tire curtain fabrics, forming a certain level of support; The follow-up of downstream orders for modified injection molding and ordinary nylon textile is weak, and end enterprises are cautious about high-level raw materials, generally insisting on on-demand procurement and small order replenishment according to demand, lacking centralized replenishment drive.
Short term forecast for the future market
Short term PA66 is likely to continue its high volatility trend, with a 60 day cycle price at a high level and limited upward potential; The one-year cycle is at a medium low level, with long-term upward potential, but limited impact on short-term market conditions. If there is no significant increase in upstream raw materials or concentrated replenishment of downstream inventory, the unilateral upward trend is difficult to realize. It is necessary to focus on tracking the pace of new production capacity deployment and changes in downstream auto parts and industrial silk orders.

This week, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region has risen. As of October 23, the average market price in Henan region was 8350 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 8225 yuan/ton on October 17, an increase of 1.52%.
This week, the market for cryolite has been operating strongly, with enterprise cryolite prices rising. Although the price of upstream fluorite has been narrowly lowered, it is still relatively high, providing strong support for the cost of cryolite; Downstream purchases of high priced cryolite are mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable; The tight spot market on the supply side and the low inventory pressure on manufacturers have driven up the price of cryolite. As of October 23rd, the ex factory price of cryolite in Shandong region is 8000-8800 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is 8000-9000 yuan/ton.
The upstream fluorite market is weakly consolidating, with an average market price of 3668.75 yuan/ton as of October 23, a decrease of 0.34% compared to the price of 3681.25 yuan/ton on October 17. The domestic fluorite industry is affected by mining control measures, resulting in a low operating rate and tight supply of market goods, which provides strong support for fluorite prices. Some mining companies have made slight concessions, leading to a decrease in actual transactions.
Market forecast: The upstream operating rate of cryolite is not high, and the raw material support is relatively strong; The downstream electrolytic aluminum industry’s orders are improving, providing strong support for the shipment of cryolite enterprises; At the same time, the spot market is relatively tight, and the fundamentals in the market are optimistic. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to operate at a high level in the later stage, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.

机翻 · 通用领域
This week, the domestic light rare earth market price trend has declined. On October 22, the rare earth index was 642 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 36.25% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 136.90% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015.
This week, the prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide in China have all declined. As of the weekend, the price of neodymium oxide was 760000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98%; The price of neodymium metal is 940000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% in price; The price of praseodymium oxide is 757500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% in price; The price of praseodymium metal is 987500 yuan/ton, with a price trend decline of 1.0%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 892500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11% in price; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 730000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% in price.
This week, the domestic light rare earth market prices have declined, and the prices of core products have also decreased. The main reason for this round of decline is the loosening of the supply side margin, and the abundance of spot goods has suppressed prices; In addition, after the demand side became sluggish, there was a significant decrease in purchasing willingness due to the lack of supply.
1、 Supply side: Marginal loosening, abundant spot prices suppressing prices
The spot supply of light rare earths has shown marginal looseness during the same period, weakening price support. Myanmar is an important source of rare earth imports for China. In September, the amount of unlisted rare earth oxide imported from Myanmar by China surged from 1346 tons in August to 3509 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month, accounting for 70% of the total amount of similar imports for the month. Myanmar mines are an important source of supplementary raw materials for light rare earths, and the phased recovery of their supply directly increases the looseness of the spot market. Recently, some holders of goods have stopped raising prices and instead offered to sell at lower prices in exchange for liquidity. At the same time, some of the previously unsold praseodymium neodymium spot goods have also begun to flow into the market, which has eased the short-term supply-demand contradiction to some extent, but has directly suppressed prices.
2、 Demand side: After the holiday, there will be a shortage of supply and demand, and the willingness to purchase will significantly shrink
Before the National Day holiday, downstream magnetic material companies conducted a round of centralized replenishment, but after the holiday, terminal orders did not keep up, leading to a “demand gap period” in the market. The release of terminal demand fell short of expectations, and the demand release of major downstream industries such as new energy and motors was slower than expected. As a result, magnetic material companies generally turned to on-demand replenishment, and their willingness to stock up on a large scale was not strong. Pre holiday replenishment overdraft, post holiday focus on digesting inventory: Magnetic material companies have completed phased replenishment in the early stage, and downstream mainly consume existing inventory after the holiday. The growth rate of new purchase orders has significantly slowed down, and the overall demand for magnetic materials for mid-range variable frequency air conditioners and other household appliances is weak.

In the short term, the rare earth market continues to operate weakly. The recent decline in light rare earths is the result of a mismatch in demand pace after the holiday, a recovery in supply margins, and a cooling market sentiment. Cost support determines that the slope of price decline is relatively gentle, rather than a rapid decline. The key to stabilizing in the future lies in whether the new orders of magnetic material enterprises can be effectively released within the traditional stocking window in the fourth quarter, and whether the import rhythm of overseas raw materials such as Myanmar will be disturbed again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.