Cobalt prices continue to fall in August
On August 21st, the cobalt price was 304700 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 12.27% compared to the cobalt price of 347300 yuan/ton on August 1st. The cobalt price dropped significantly in August, and it is still in the off-season of consumption with limited demand support. The cobalt market is still in a weak bottoming out stage. Due to the triple pressure of fund selling, increasing volume of recycled cobalt, and weak demand, cobalt prices have continued to decline.
Demand side: significant decrease in demand
The shipment volume of mobile phones has decreased
According to statistics released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the domestic market’s mobile phone shipments reached 19.149 million units in June 2026, a decrease of 15.3% compared to the same period last year. From January to June 2026, the domestic market shipped 133 million mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%.
Affected by the rise in storage chip prices and the US Iran conflict, the global smartphone market will face its toughest year in 2026. IDC predicts that global smartphone shipments for the full year of 2026 will decrease by 12.9% year-on-year. Counterpoint Research predicts that the shipment volume will drop to approximately 1.08 billion units, setting a new low for annual shipments since 2013. FDM predicts a significant year-on-year decline of 12% in global smartphone shipments for the full year of 2026. The demand in the mobile phone market has significantly decreased, and the demand in the cobalt market has also declined.
Lithium cobalt oxide to ternary further reduces cobalt market demand
The difference in cobalt content between lithium cobalt oxide and ternary batteries is significant depending on the voltage, with little difference in unit consumption: lithium cobalt oxide has a cobalt content of 60%, while the cobalt content of 6-series ternary batteries is only 6.9%. This means that for every replacement of a portion of lithium cobalt oxide, the demand for cobalt decreases exponentially. In the first half of this year, some mobile phone companies have been promoting pure ternary projects, and a considerable number of mobile phone batteries have started using lithium cobalt oxide ternary doping schemes. The promotion of lithium cobalt oxide to ternary has further reduced the demand for cobalt in the market.
Slow growth in sales of new energy vehicles
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.576 million and 1.561 million respectively, an increase of 26.8% and 23.7% year-on-year. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 9.014 million and 9.007 million respectively, an increase of 9.5% and 9.6% year-on-year. In terms of domestic sales, in July, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.008 million units, a decrease of 10% month on month and 2.8% year-on-year. From January to July, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.098 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%. Overall, the production and sales growth of new energy vehicles will slow down in 2026, and domestic sales will significantly decline. The market is characterized by weak domestic demand, driven by exports.

At the beginning of the year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicted a target of 19 million new energy vehicles by 2026; Mid year reduction to the 16-17 million vehicle range, significantly lowering market growth expectations. A significant portion of the growth in domestic new energy vehicles comes from lithium iron phosphate (cobalt free) models; The proportion of ternary batteries in the installed capacity of domestic power batteries has significantly decreased, and high nickel content continues to lower the cobalt consumption per vehicle. The demand for cobalt in bicycles continues to decline, and the expected growth in the cobalt market demand is decreasing.
According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of installed capacity, in July, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 11.1 GWh, accounting for 14.9% of the total installed capacity, a decrease of 12.1% compared to the previous month and an increase of 1.8% year-on-year. From January to July, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries in China was 74.5GWh, accounting for 18.2% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries will decrease in 2026, with a decrease in the proportion of installed capacity in July and a month on month decrease in installed capacity. The demand for cobalt in ternary batteries has decreased.
Non battery demand: stable rigidity, almost no periodic bursts
Aircraft engine, gas turbine blades; High temperature alloys for military and commercial aviation use have rigid demand and are not sensitive to price, with a steady increase in quantity. Hard alloys and cobalt powder are used for cutting tools, molds, mining drills, and cutting tools, with stable demand following the prosperity of the manufacturing industry. Samarium cobalt permanent magnet material, high temperature resistant permanent magnet, with a small volume, but belongs to high value-added essential needs. Downstream industries such as chemical catalysts, ceramic glazes, pigments, and medical cobalt chromium molybdenum alloys have stable demand and a relatively small proportion. Overall, the proportion of downstream non battery demand for cobalt is relatively small, and the demand is mostly stable and rigid, with limited impact on cobalt prices.
Supply side: tight supply in the first half of the year and loose supply in the second half

The Democratic Republic of Congo announced its quota export policy in mid October 2025. Due to the delayed approval process, the actual import volume of intermediate goods from China in the first half of 2026 was only about 5000 metal tons (including about 2000 metal tons in June). After July, the accumulated quotas for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026 will gradually arrive at the port, and the import volume of intermediate goods will also slowly recover. In the second half of the year, the supply increased, and the cobalt market showed a loose supply pattern.
In February 2026, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East triggered a sulfur supply crisis, and the new production of Indonesia’s MHP wet process project was postponed. The output of existing projects declined, and China’s MHP imports in the first half of 2026 were only about 15000 tons of metal. Although the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has not been completely resolved, sulfur transportation has slowly resumed, and the MHP production of Indonesian wet smelters is expected to rebound, leading to an increase in China’s imports. In the second half of the year, the supply of cobalt in Indonesia will resume, and the supply in the cobalt market will be relatively loose.
In 2025, the supply of recycled cobalt in China will be about 23000 metal tons. By 2026, the supply of recycled cobalt in the first half of the year has reached 21000 metal tons, and it is expected to reach 45000 to 50000 metal tons for the whole year, which can meet 35% of China’s cobalt demand. The significant increase in cobalt recycling has greatly alleviated the supply shortage in the cobalt market in the first half of the year, and the supply in the cobalt market has increased in the second half, resulting in a loose and balanced supply and demand in the cobalt market.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Analysts believe that under the weak supply and demand situation, cobalt prices will significantly decline in 2026, but there will still be differences between the weak supply and demand situation in the first and second half of the year. In the first half of the year, cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo have not yet been concentrated in ports, and coupled with the decline in cobalt supply from Indonesia, the shortage of cobalt market supply has become the mainstream trend. With the arrival of cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the recovery of cobalt supply from Indonesia, the cobalt market will experience loose supply in the second half of the year. Under the loose supply situation, cobalt prices are expected to continue to decline. However, as the cobalt price falls below 300000 yuan/ton and approaches the cost line, the space for cobalt price decline is limited. It is expected that the future cobalt price will remain weak and consolidate the market. The decline in cobalt prices may force cobalt mining countries to adjust their policies or cobalt mining companies to change their shipping pace, and a turning point in cobalt price increases may occur in the first half of 2027.

In August, the overall low-level horizontal trend of trichloromethane in China was observed. As of August 20th, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong was 2066 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
At the beginning of the month, the market continued its weak pattern as of the end of July, with manufacturers still facing pressure to ship. Downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand, and market transactions are mainly driven by essential needs, with a lack of upward price drivers. The demand for refrigerants during the mid month peak season has increased, and the start of R22 units has increased, leading to an increase in the purchase of trichloromethane. The demand for pharmaceutical and pesticide solvents remains stable, and market trading has rebounded, but overall it is stabilizing.
In the early stage of the supply side, most of the equipment maintained normal load. In the middle of the month, the 100000 tons/year methane chloride equipment in Huichang was shut down, and short-term supply contraction was expected in some areas. However, the overall production capacity of the industry was abundant during the month, and large equipment was producing normally. The overall supply remained loose, restricting the upward space.
The significant increase in methanol prices on the cost side and limited fluctuations in liquid chlorine have provided support for the market. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of August 20th, the spot price of methanol was 2870 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.19% from 2628 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
Market forecast: Short term market stability and consolidation. If the geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to rise in the later stage, driving up the price of methanol will raise the cost center of trichloromethane. We need to pay attention to downstream production and raw material conditions in the later stage.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (August 12-18), the spot price of PA66 in the market has remained stagnant, with stable quotations. The spot price of Shengyi Society has remained stable at 17833.33 yuan/ton, with a daily increase or decrease of 0.00%. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 10-90 day cycle is all in the low range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range. After a continuous decline in the early stage, the market downturn slows down, and the market enters the bottom oscillation and bottoming stage; The moving average system has not yet shown a buy signal where the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average, and the short-term trend remains weak.
2、 Cost analysis
The upstream supply of adiponitrile is sufficient, the industry’s operating load remains high, and the raw material prices lack upward momentum, resulting in weak support for PA66 production costs. The current slicing price has limited space from the industry cost line, and the pressure of manufacturers’ losses is gradually emerging. Some production enterprises have the willingness to reduce production to maintain prices, but the loose pattern of upstream raw materials has not substantially changed, and the cost side is temporarily difficult to drive the rebound and upward trend of PA66 prices.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the overall operating rate of PA66 plants in China is at a relatively high level, with sufficient supply of spot goods. There is still pressure on market circulation and inventory, and there is intense competition among manufacturers for shipment, which poses significant obstacles to actively pushing up prices.
In terms of demand, downstream industries such as modification, injection molding, and textile airbag silk have limited capacity to increase production, and traditional downstream order follow-up is weak. Terminal factories mostly insist on on-demand procurement and on-demand procurement, and there is a lack of willingness to stock up in large quantities. They have a strong demand to support the bottom line but lack incremental demand. Under the game of supply and demand, the market lacks upward driving force, and after the market stops falling, it enters a sideways observation period.
4、 Short term forecast
In the short term, the bottom oscillation pattern of the PA66 spot market is likely to continue. The fundamentals of loose raw materials and abundant spot supply are difficult to reverse quickly, and the conditions for a significant rebound in the market are not yet met; However, the current price is already in the mid to low range of the year, and the expected reduction in production caused by the losses of production enterprises will provide some support for the downward space. The space for further deep decline is limited, and the price is likely to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of 17500-18200 yuan/ton, waiting for the release of downstream autumn and winter orders to bring a demand turning point.

The market for butadiene rubber has fluctuated and risen significantly. As of August 18th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 14680 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.14% from 13450 yuan/ton at the beginning of August. The cost and supply side provided strong support for butadiene rubber, while weak downstream demand to some extent suppressed the increase in butadiene rubber prices.
At the cost level, the price of raw material butadiene has risen due to equipment maintenance and tightening of spot circulation resources. The production profit of butadiene rubber has been compressed or even turned into a loss, and the cost side has formed a strong support for spot prices. Mainstream petrochemical enterprises have repeatedly raised their ex factory quotations, driving up market offers. As of August 18th, the price of butadiene was 11533 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.14% from 10016 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In terms of supply, the industry has maintained a production range of 74% -75%, with some equipment undergoing maintenance. Coupled with good export performance, domestic social inventory continues to deplete and remains relatively low. Spot resources are tight, easing the pressure of accumulated inventory.
The demand side is still in the traditional off-season, and tire companies have slightly rebounded in production. However, the recovery of the terminal market is limited, and downstream consumers are resistant to high priced raw materials. Multi dimensional on-demand procurement is being held, and large-scale inventory replenishment has not yet been initiated. The demand side has not formed an active upward momentum. As of August 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 64.32%, while the operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.01%.
Market forecast:
The spot price and moving average of Shunding rubber showed a sideways trend from late July to early August, with short-term moving averages fluctuating and the long and short forces tending to balance. In mid August, the current price once again hit the short-term moving average, with short-term bulls dominating and there is a driving force to test the high point of the previous rebound. But the medium-term moving average has not yet fully opened upwards, with obvious upward pressure and a lack of unilateral trend conditions. Predict a strong short-term oscillation, with a high probability of encountering resistance and falling back after a surge. Focus on the effectiveness of the moving average support. If it falls below the short-term moving average, the rebound pattern will be disrupted.
Overall, short-term cost drivers dominate, coupled with the approaching golden September and silver October, there is an expectation of tire stocking, and Shunding rubber may maintain strong fluctuations. There is further upward space for spot prices, but the magnitude of the increase is limited. In the medium to long term, we need to be vigilant about the supply increment impact caused by the release of new production capacity in the later stage.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have slightly decreased this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 127750 yuan/ton, down 2.27% from the beginning of the week and up 4.66% year-on-year.
Macro wise: This week, the macro drivers have gradually exhausted. The US July CPI data is basically in line with expectations, and the Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see stance; CME Federal Reserve observation shows that the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to 33.1%. The situation in the Middle East shows some signs of easing, but navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed, and sulfur prices continue to fluctuate at high levels around $1100. In July, the domestic CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and M2 increased by 7.7% year-on-year. The macro atmosphere is cautiously optimistic, but concerns about economic recession still exist.
On the supply side, the focus of the supply side game is on Indonesia’s RKAB quota policy. On Thursday, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) recommended an additional strategic buffer of 30 million tons for nickel ore RKAB in 2026, raising market expectations for loose supply. In terms of mining, the end of the rainy season in the Philippines has led to a rebound in domestic nickel ore port inventories, but Indonesia’s intermediate goods imports have shown a month on month decrease. Domestic refined nickel production in July continued to decline at 30800 tons, and Indonesia’s GNI company shut down two of its three nickel smelters due to financial crisis.
On the demand side: Overall demand is still in a weak trend during the off-season. Under the off-season of traditional stainless steel consumption, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream acceptance of high priced resources is limited. Transactions have only rebounded temporarily, and steel mills have loosened their prices; The stainless steel factory lacks strong motivation to replenish inventory in large quantities before the peak season arrives. In terms of new energy, the production of ternary cathode materials in July increased by 2.48% compared to the previous month, reaching 89220 tons. However, downstream purchasing intentions were weak and rigid demand was the main factor. Although the demand for ternary materials improved, it was not enough to digest the increase in pure nickel.
Influencing factors: The core influencing factor this week is the expected switch of Indonesia’s RKAB quota policy – from “comprehensive tightening” to “moderate relaxation”. APNI has stated that the quota will remain at 260-270 million tons and only add to smelters with raw material shortages. In terms of inventory, the total LME nickel inventory is running at a high level of 264732 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 101387 tons from the previous period continue to accumulate. On the cost side, mineral prices have fallen slightly compared to the previous period, and cost support has weakened, but the high sulfur level still provides some bottom support.
In summary, the RKAB approval result remains a key variable. If the quota is officially implemented, the downside risk will increase, and if it is tightened again, it will be an upside risk. Macro and geopolitical uncertainties exist, and fundamentals are suppressed by both high inventory and weak demand. It is expected that nickel prices will remain weakly volatile in the short term.