price trend
The domestic PC market continued to decline in June, with significant drops in spot prices for various brands. As of June 30th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 12966.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.13% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: During the June period, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises continued to rise. The overall industry load rate has still recovered to around 75% compared to the beginning of the month, and there are still plans to return the production capacity of aggregation plants in the future. The production loss is gradually shrinking, and the weekly average production has returned to around 60000 tons. The smoothness of shipments from the aggregation plant is poor, and enterprise pricing has been lowered. Overall, the supply side has poor support for PC.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market consolidated at a low level in June. International crude oil prices have sharply declined, with raw materials such as acetone and phenol showing significant declines. The market has a negative expectation for bisphenol A, and the supply changes within the range are limited, resulting in weak demand. Although the spot price has reached a temporary low after a decline at the beginning of the month. However, positive guidance within the venue is difficult to achieve, and overall support for PC cost values is relatively weak.
On the demand side: The sales situation of PC downstream factories is at a low season level, and the demand for sheet metal shells is weakening, resulting in low load levels for end enterprises. The current PC prices are rapidly falling, and industry players are chasing after the rise and killing the fall, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The buyer is cautious in stocking up and has poor willingness to build a warehouse. The liquidity of the source of goods has slowed down, and merchants have followed the market with their offers. By the end of the month, they have completed their tasks by offering discounts and taking orders. The low-priced goods in the market need to be digested, and the focus of dragging aggregation factories’ pricing has returned to pre war levels. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
post-market forecast
The domestic PC market experienced a sharp decline in June. The price of upstream bisphenol A remains low and stable, with poor expectations, making it difficult for the cost value to support PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants continues to increase, and there are still expectations of relaxed supply in the future. On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, with cautious stocking and frequent small orders. At present, the supply and demand of PC are weak, cost expectations are weak, and the market orientation is relatively negative. It is expected that there may still be a risk of decline in the short term.

In June 2026, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level, with an average price of 16500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15955 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 3.30%.
On June 29th, the Business Society Lead Index was 97.83, a decrease of 0.28 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.00% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and an increase of 31.09% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
In June, the lead ingot market showed a unilateral downward trend and a weak oscillation pattern. Throughout the month, lead prices remained flat only on June 1st and have since continued to decline. They only briefly stabilized and rebounded from June 13th to 16th, but the rebound was weak and failed to reverse the downward trend.
The supply side presents a triple contraction of “tight mines, regeneration losses, and import barriers”
Lead concentrate continues to be in short supply, domestic processing fees remain at a low level of 200 yuan/metal ton, and import processing fees are deeply inverted to -165 US dollars/dry ton. Primary lead enterprises have gradually entered monthly maintenance, with a slight decrease in operating rates; Recycled lead enterprises generally suffer losses, with operating rates of less than 30%. The inverted price comparison between Shanghai and London has led to the closure of the import window for refined lead, making it difficult for overseas sources of goods to flow in.
The demand side coincides with the traditional off-season of mid year consumption
Lead acid batteries have entered the off-season, and the demand for replacing electric two wheelers has declined. The growth of car starter batteries has been flat, and downstream battery factories have high finished product inventories and production is determined by sales. Only essential purchases are made, and individual transactions are light.
Significant differentiation between internal and external inventory
The social inventory of domestic lead ingots continues to slowly deplete, and low inventory forms a bottom support for prices; However, LME inventory remains at a historical high of around 300000 tons, and the weak external market continues to drag down the rebound height of the internal market.
Overall summary
Looking ahead to July, the macro level expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates remains the biggest suppressing factor; Fundamentally, the shortage of mineral resources and the loss of recycled lead are difficult to reverse in the short term, and cost support still exists. It is expected that lead prices will continue to fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 15800-16300 yuan/ton. The effectiveness of cost support will be monitored below, and any breakthrough above will depend on signals of macroeconomic sentiment recovery or seasonal improvement in demand.

In June, the overall domestic PTA market maintained a downward trend. As of June 29th, the average price of PTA spot market in East China was 5785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.36% from the beginning of the month.
In the first half of the year, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East brought about a risk premium for crude oil, resulting in tight PX supply and strong cost support. At the same time, PTA underwent centralized maintenance and had a low operating rate, leading to tight spot circulation. As a result, PTA prices fluctuated at high levels. Starting from mid month, the geopolitical easing between the United States and Iran, the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the concentrated disappearance of crude oil geopolitical premiums, the sharp decline in oil prices, the collapse of cost support, and the gradual resumption of PTA maintenance facilities have led to a rebound in operating rates and loose supply margins. Coupled with the accumulation of downstream polyester inventory and sluggish weaving orders, PTA prices have plummeted sharply and rapidly declined.
In the short term, PTA on the supply side has zero new production capacity throughout the year, relying solely on operating rate adjustments, and there is no increase in long-term production capacity. Although production resumed after centralized maintenance in the early stage, overall production has not returned to a high level and is currently around 64%. And the port inventory is low, the spot basis is strong, limiting the space for a sharp decline. Entering the early stage of July, the maintenance capacity has been gradually restarted, the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply has shifted from a temporary tightness to a relaxed expectation
On the cost side, there is a lot of maintenance and low inventory in the upstream Asian PX units, and the price difference between PX and naphtha remains high, providing support for the bottom of costs. But after the geopolitical premium of crude oil receded, oil prices returned to supply-demand pricing, price fluctuations increased, and the upward trend lacked strong driving force.
The weak demand will continue to drag down prices, with June and July being the traditional off-season for textiles, and new orders for autumn and winter have not yet been concentrated. The production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is sluggish, and the inventory of polyester products continues to accumulate. Polyester factories continue to slightly reduce their losses, and the procurement of raw materials for essential needs is weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum.
Overall, in July, PTA low inventory and PX cost support prevented a deep decline, but downstream demand was weak during the off-season and lacked upward momentum. Attention should be paid to international crude oil fluctuations and downstream polyester production reduction/resumption. It is expected that PTA prices will remain weak and fluctuate in July.

1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices experienced a unilateral downward trend in June. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 104911.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 101625 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 3.13% and a year-on-year increase of 28.82%.
The copper spot price in June was higher than the main contract price. As the end of the month approaches, the main composite price of copper is higher than the spot price of copper, indicating that copper prices will be under pressure in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fell significantly in June. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 336475 tons, a decrease of 12.84% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the core PCE of the United States rose to 3.4% year-on-year in May, and the overall PCE reached 4.1%, a new high in nearly two years. The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has reignited, and the probability of a rate hike in September has exceeded 50%. The European and Japanese central banks tightened slightly simultaneously, and the US dollar index continued to strengthen, which significantly suppressed the financial properties of copper. However, the temporary agreement between the United States and Iran has eased oil prices and partially eased inflationary pressures, and there is a marginal possibility of easing macroeconomic bearish sentiment.
Supply side: Copper concentrate processing fee TC has fallen to a historical low of -120.7 US dollars/ton, and the shortage in the mining side continues to intensify. During the June smelting maintenance season, high sulfuric acid prices supported smelting profits. The estimated production of electrolytic copper was 1.1684 million tons, a decrease of only 0.09% compared to the previous month, but still an increase of 2.95% year-on-year. Wet smelting is approaching the breakeven line, and if sulfuric acid falls back in the future, the risk of production reduction at the smelting end will significantly increase.
Downstream: After copper prices fell, downstream prices became active, and the operating rate of refined copper rods increased by 1.6 percentage points month on month, exceeding expectations and rebounding. Electricity infrastructure investment maintains double-digit growth and remains the core pillar of demand. However, copper used in construction continues to shrink, and the home appliances and new energy sectors have shown weak performance due to previous overdrafts. Terminal consumption presents a pattern of “resilient demand but weak ability to chase growth”.
Comprehensive analysis of influencing factors
The US 232 copper tariff policy will be announced before the end of June, which is the biggest uncertainty variable of this month. Driven by expectations, COMEX inventory has risen to over 650000 tons, while LME inventory has dropped to around 350000 tons. The divergence in inventory trends between the two regions has become the most prominent feature of the market. The domestic social inventory is slowly decreasing to around 210000 tons, and the overall situation is in a destocking channel.
In summary, if the 232 tariff is ultimately implemented, copper prices are expected to once again hit above $14000 per ton; If the policy falls short of expectations, closing arbitrage positions may trigger a pullback. Short term copper prices are fluctuating and bottoming out around 100000 yuan/ton, with macro interest rate pressures and supply constraints from the mining sector playing against each other. In the medium to long term, the weakening of supply elasticity and the growth of structural demand coexist, and the copper price center is expected to maintain a high level of operation.

At the end of June, the domestic PS market was weak and had a decline, with most spot prices of certain brands experiencing significant drops. According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, as of June 25th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s PS was 9483.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.82% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Cost factor: In the second half of June, the international crude oil market experienced a significant downturn. The oil price premium caused by geopolitical conflicts quickly cleared, and multiple price indicators hit temporary lows. Affected by it, the price of pure benzene fell and then consolidated. At the same time, the restart of domestic styrene plants will be more concentrated in the latter half of the year, and the supply will increase. With the gradual opening of waterways, the tight supply of overseas styrene has been simultaneously alleviated. The price of styrene has fallen, and downstream profits have recovered to some extent, but the release of factory inventory is slow, and the procurement of essential needs is the main focus, with limited demand pull. The overall cost support for PS is poor.
Supply and demand level: Recently, the domestic PS industry has experienced significant stability and small fluctuations. The domestic operating rate has been consistently low for a long time, and some of the facilities have been scheduled for maintenance in the early stages. Currently, the overall load in China is around 50%. Although the inventory position is relatively controllable, it is currently in the traditional off-season market, and downstream product factories such as electrical appliances and packaging are digesting slowly, resulting in weak demand for goods in the market. After the addition, there is still an expectation of reduced production volume for terminal enterprises in the city, and the current PS is still in a weak supply-demand pattern.
post-market forecast
At the end of June, the domestic PS market continued its downward trend. The production load of the aggregation plant is maintained at a low level, and consumer demand is at a low season level. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that crude oil, a remote raw material, has experienced a sharp decline, causing significant price drops for upstream raw materials in the industry chain. Under the collapse of costs, PS spot prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise. It is expected that the PS market will continue to follow the decline of raw materials in the short term.