According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has slightly declined since September, with the average spot market price of PTA in East China at 4631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6% from the beginning of the month.
The weakening of cost support and the gradual realization of OPEC+production increase in the international crude oil market have led to a decline in crude oil prices. As of September 12th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $62.69 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $66.99 per barrel. OPEC maintains the tone of increasing production in October, and the risk of oversupply has increased. And with the traditional fuel peak season coming to an end and demand entering a turning point, the supply and demand pattern is showing a situation of oversupply, coupled with the current difficult geopolitical situation to intensify, crude oil prices may continue to weaken.
Recently, maintenance facilities such as Hengli Huizhou and Xinfengming have been restarted in early September, partially improving the tight supply situation of PTA in China. The current industry operating rate is around 77%. PTA relies on operating to maintain inventory in the early stage, but it is difficult to continue in the later stage. There is also an expectation of new equipment being put into operation in October, so there is a continuous increase in domestic supply.
The traditional peak season downstream has arrived, but the performance of terminal orders is average, and the demand side is lukewarm, lacking substantial driving force. Among them, polyester filament manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship, continuing their promotional model and continuously lowering prices. The demand for downstream spinning orders in the polyester staple fiber market has rebounded compared to last month. Although the overall order volume was lower than expected, the improvement in news has boosted the mentality of industry players, resulting in a moderate increase in the purchase volume of polyester staple fibers. Therefore, its price performance is resistant to decline.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the PTA market is performing cautiously, with concerns about supply growth and weak demand during the traditional peak season, and a lack of significant fundamental support. As a result, PTA prices remain mainly volatile and weak.

This week, the price of acrylonitrile rose and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, due to reduced supply in the East China region and considering recent cost pressures and long-term pre holiday stocking expectations, suppliers continued to push up prices. However, the follow-up of spot transactions has been slow, and it is expected that the northern maintenance equipment will gradually recover next week. In addition, there is no significant increase in overall demand, and as the weekend approaches, the market will stop rising and fall back.
As of September 12th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8400-8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 8350-8450 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Supply side
The newly built 260000 ton acrylonitrile unit B line of Jilin Petrochemical’s transformation and upgrading project was successfully put into operation on August 13th, and the A line was also put into operation recently. As a result, the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity base has been adjusted to 5.42 million tons per year. Therefore, this week’s production increased while the capacity utilization rate still decreased; The 520000 ton acrylonitrile unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is currently operating at around 75% load. It is planned to undergo maintenance on one unit for about 10 days starting from September 15th, when the load will drop to 50%; Sinochem Quanzhou Acrylonitrile Plant Shutdown; Tianchen Qixiang’s 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant is scheduled to restart in mid September.
According to statistics, as of September 11th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories has dropped to 71.90%, which is -0.95% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output is about 81900 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 41000 tons, an increase of 0.18 million tons from last week.
Increased demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rates of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile have all shown an increase, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 70.0%, an increase of 1.0% compared to last week, and the Tianjin plant has shown a negative trend; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 61.59%, an increase of 0.93% compared to last week; Daqing Petrochemical restarts; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 55.58%, an increase of 0.61% compared to last week, indicating a slight increase in overall demand.
Cost support:
The cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production has not changed much during the cycle, and upstream propylene prices are running at a high level. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices are fluctuating at a high level, and the production loss situation has improved this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9024 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of+0.20%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -474 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 211 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the acrylonitrile market is expected to be in a favorable atmosphere of high cost, low inventory, and reduced supply in the first half of September. However, the above positive support is limited and variable, coupled with insufficient follow-up of long-term demand, the improvement of market supply and demand relationship is still difficult to sustain. In the second half of the month, the northern maintenance facilities will gradually resume, and at the same time, the demand for stocking up before the National Day holiday will also be activated. The news is mixed, and the market may once again fall into a stalemate.

In 2025, domestic and foreign phenol and ketone enterprises will be in a long-term loss of profits. Devices in South Korea, Taiwan, China, Saudi Arabia and other countries and regions will be overhauled. In addition, domestic acetone prices will fall in the second quarter, which will inevitably attract the attention of exporters and boost the year-on-year growth of export volume, up 41.28%.
In 2025, the destinations for China’s acetone exports will be relatively dispersed, and there will be significant changes in the main destinations. In 2024, the majority of China’s acetone exports will be to Japan, while this year’s exports to Thailand will occupy the top position. According to the statistics of customs export data, from January to July 2025, China’s acetone exports to 48 countries and regions, accounting for 58.05% of the total exports to Thailand, Japan, Peru and Taiwan, China, accounting for half of the country. In addition, a total of 44 products were exported to other regions and countries, accounting for 41.95% of the total export volume.
Expected future export of acetone in 2025: Both South Korea and India have newly added phenol ketone units put into operation, thus increasing international export competition pressure. Some countries may have early inventory clearance operations in the fourth quarter, which will inevitably affect export prices. With the gradual increase in domestic acetone supply and the low price, seizing international market share has become a necessary path for acetone exports.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 10, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5933 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6100 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.73%.
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early September, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a weak downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the n-butanol market in Shandong experienced a weak and downward trend, followed by active market sales. The n-butanol market remained weak and stable, but the positive support was insufficient, and the focus of the n-butanol market fell again. As of September 10th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is 5900-6000 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
On the supply side: Currently, the overall tight supply of n-butanol has eased, and n-butanol production factories are actively shipping to maintain low inventory levels. The market as a whole is generally supported by the supply side.
On the demand side: Currently, the overall downstream demand for n-butanol is cautious, with downstream users mainly purchasing at low prices. The overall trading inquiries are mainly at low-end prices, and the support provided by the demand side to the n-butanol market is weak.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the Shandong n-butanol market is mild, and the overall low-end trading volume is still acceptable. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market weakened in early September, with most brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of September 9th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7113.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.93% compared to the price level at the beginning of September.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
At the beginning of September, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe and the Middle East maintained a relaxed pattern, and the market expected stable crude oil supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+continues to increase production, causing international oil prices to fluctuate downward. In the first half of the year, the supply of propylene was affected by the maintenance of Haiwei, resulting in a contraction. However, due to sufficient on-site supply, the resistance to price increases is relatively high. In addition, the downstream demand is generally followed up, and the price situation is mainly stagnant. Propane has been boosted by high external prices, and the short-term bottoming force is relatively strong. Prices are temporarily stable, and the cost support for PDH manufacturing enterprises has flattened. Overall, the prices of various PP raw materials provide average cost support.
Supply side:
In early September, the operating rate of domestic PP enterprises remained high and stable. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry is around 80%, which is basically unchanged from the end of August, and the weekly average total output is also flat at 810000 tons. Recently, the first line of the 900000 ton new production line in Ningbo Daxie Phase II has been put into operation with 450000 tons. The trend of loose market supply is clear, which seriously limits the support of the supply side. The current on-site supply remains abundant, and inventory levels have significantly rebounded to over 830000 tons. Overall, the PP supply side has poor support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
At the beginning of September, polypropylene was in the transition period between peak and off peak seasons, and traders had expectations for a surge in PP demand. However, the trading atmosphere in the field remained light. Merchants have started stocking up slowly, and new orders on site still tend to be mainly scattered small orders and contract deliveries. The improvement of source liquidity is limited. The median load of downstream enterprises has leveled off, and the potential willingness to build warehouses for materials in areas such as plastic weaving, construction, and agriculture is unclear. PP peak season consumption has not yet started, providing average support for the demand side.
Future forecast
The domestic PP market prices fell in early September. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is weak, and the overall support for PP is not good. The industry load remains stable at a high level, and there is a short-term expectation of loose supply in the future. In terms of consumption, it is at the junction of peak and off peak seasons. The current seasonal speculative atmosphere in the market is constrained by industry capacity expansion and weak demand, and it is expected that PP may still need to consolidate the market in the short term.