Since June, the domestic light rare earth market prices have slightly decreased. On June 10th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 631 points, a decrease of 37.34% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 132.84% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
Since June, the prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide in China have all experienced a slight decline. As of the 11th, the price of neodymium oxide was 775000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27%; The price of neodymium metal is 940000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% in price; The price of praseodymium oxide is 767500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27% in price; The price of praseodymium metal is 935000 yuan/ton, with a price trend decline of 1.06%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 835000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18% in price; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 695000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.07% in price.
Since June, the domestic light rare earth market prices have slightly decreased, the trend of core product prices has declined, and the market atmosphere trend has weakened. The core is the short-term supply-demand imbalance, weaker demand off-season, relaxed supply margin, and resonance of negative factors, resulting in a weak market in the short term.
1、 Direct factor: Traditional off-season combined with weak new orders
June is the traditional off-season for the rare earth market, with new energy vehicles, wind power, and industrial motors entering a deep off-season. The operating rate of magnetic material enterprises is 55% -60%, with terminal price suppression. Magnetic material factories have zero inventory and demand based pricing, and high priced sources are completely out of stock, resulting in a cliff like decline in transactions. In addition, reducing the amount of praseodymium neodymium used in mid to low end magnetic materials and increasing the proportion of recycled materials further weakens the demand for primary praseodymium neodymium. After entering June, downstream new orders are still limited, and demand in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and home appliances has entered a seasonal trough. The market continues to be under pressure, and the foundation for price repair is not stable. The trend of the light rare earth market has declined
2、 The previous increase was too large, and the recent market trend has been weak
From the beginning of the year to the end of April, the light rare earth market saw a significant increase, but recently the market has continued to decline. In early May, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law came into effect, with both positive and negative effects. Traders and smelters concentrated on selling goods and reducing inventory, resulting in a high concentration of low-priced orders and a continuous decline in the light rare earth market.
3、 Supply side marginal relaxation, domestic rare earth oxide production increases month on month
In 2026, the mining quota will increase, mainly focusing on light rare earths, with a smelting operation rate of 85% -90%, and the on-site inventory will continue to accumulate. In addition, Myanmar’s mineral imports have resumed, and the production of praseodymium neodymium oxide by MP Materials in the United States increased by 63% year-on-year in the first quarter, filling the domestic gap. In the early stage, high priced and reluctant to sell goods were concentrated in the market, and the spot circulation increased month on month, breaking the balance and causing a decline in the market situation. The comprehensive increase in domestic rare earth oxide production compared to the previous period has brought additional spot supply to the market, while at this time, downstream demand is in a weak state, and the supply-demand mismatch further suppresses the performance of rare earth prices.

In the short term, the rare earth market is prone to decline but difficult to rise, with a focus on maintaining a downward trend. With the increasing demand in downstream fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power installation, and industrial motors, coupled with the continuous tightening of rare earth industry control, the expectation of strategic storage, and the recovery of overseas high-end manufacturing demand, the supply and demand pattern of rare earths is expected to tighten again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.

1、 Market trend
In early June 2026, the domestic market price of butanone continued to decline from a high level, and the market price fell rapidly. The market price dropped unilaterally from 9066 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7900 yuan/ton, with a decline of 12.87% in the latter half of the month.
2、 Core influencing factors
Imbalance in supply and demand pattern
At present, the operating rate of domestic butanone plants has increased, and there is a significant increase in market supply. However, downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives have weak demand, and procurement is mainly based on rigid needs, lacking centralized replenishment support. The pattern of oversupply has driven down prices.
Weak cost support
The upstream raw material C4 price of butanone continues to weaken, and the production cost of butanone is synchronously lowered, losing the cost side support. The pricing pressure on enterprises is increasing, further lowering the market price center.
Market sentiment is pessimistic
The high price operation in the early stage has accumulated certain downward pressure, coupled with the weak macro environment, the bearish sentiment in the market has spread, and traders have sold their goods at low prices, exacerbating the price decline.
3、 Future prospects
At present, the trading atmosphere in the butanone market is still light. In the short term, the butanone market still faces the dual pressure of loose supply and weak demand. It is expected that the market price will maintain a low oscillation trend, and the rebound momentum will be insufficient. If the upstream raw material prices stop falling and rebound in the future, or if the downstream industry’s operating rate increases and there is a concentrated replenishment of inventory, the downward trend is expected to slow down.

1、 Price trend: Supply and demand gap drives prices to historic highs
This week, the sulfur market showed a unilateral surge. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 9th, the benchmark price of sulfur reached 9200 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.67% compared to the beginning of this month (7500 yuan/ton), setting a new historical high.
From the price curve of Shengyi Society, this round of rise presents a “three-stage” characteristic:
From March 11th to late April: After two rounds of fluctuations, prices stabilized and the bottom support gradually rose;
From early May to early June, prices entered a steady upward trend, with the center of gravity shifting from the 6000 yuan/ton range to around 7500 yuan/ton;
3. June 2nd to June 8th: The market entered an accelerated explosive stage, and the daily increase continued to expand from June 5th. On June 8th, the daily increase reached 14.52%, and the price jumped from 8033.33 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of the moving average system, the Business Society’s 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average form a strong bullish alignment. The 10 day moving average consistently runs above the 20 day moving average, and the moving average continues to widen, clearly indicating a “rising acceleration” signal; Starting from June 3rd, prices quickly climbed from the “median” to the “one-year high” range, igniting market sentiment.
2、 Supply side contraction is the dominant factor in the market
1. International supply side:
The international sulfur market remained strong at a high level this cycle, with supply contraction becoming the core contradiction:
Kazakhstan’s sulfur supply has decreased, while the Middle East and Russia continue to experience shortages, leading to a further tightening of global sulfur supply;
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has been fluctuating, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and the flow of imported resources obstructed. Qatar and Kuwait raised the official sulfur FOB price to $805/ton in June, an increase of $40-65/ton month on month, further pushing up import costs;
The port inventory continues to decrease. As of June 5th, the domestic port sulfur inventory was only 919400 tons, a decrease of 68100 tons or 6.90% compared to the previous month. The shortage of imported goods has exacerbated the shortage of spot goods.
2. Domestic supply side:
Domestic major refineries have launched a supply guarantee mode for phosphate fertilizer enterprises, suspending resource supply to non phosphate fertilizer enterprises. The external procurement volume of chemical enterprises has passively increased, and the expectation of tightening spot supply has risen;
The impact of equipment maintenance is evident, with the shutdown of the first phase of the Chuandongbei gas field and a reduction in supply from Xintai Petrochemical. The national weekly production has dropped to 217200 tons, a decrease of 4000 tons compared to the previous period;
Regional quotations have generally increased, with major refineries in East China, Central China, North China and other regions raising their quotations by 400-1900 yuan/ton. Northeast refineries have stabilized their prices and shipped, with strong overall supply side support.
The data from Shengyi Society confirms the tense situation on the supply side: the average price of domestic solid sulfur is 8064 yuan/ton, an increase of 672 yuan/ton or 9.09% from May 29th; The price of granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port is 8750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1330 yuan/ton or 17.92% compared to May 29th. The port’s increase is significantly higher than that of domestic production, reflecting a greater shortage of imported resources.

3、 Demand side:
The overall situation of downstream sulfur in this cycle presents a contradictory pattern of “shrinking demand but difficult to change gap”:
Downstream price differentiation, with the prices of sulfuric acid, monoammonium phosphate, and diammonium phosphate rising with the increase of raw materials, and the prices of titanium dioxide and caprolactam falling, indicating that some downstream chemical companies have insufficient tolerance for high priced raw materials;
The capacity utilization rate has generally declined, with the capacity utilization rates of the ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate industries dropping to 44.43% and 34.09%, respectively. Some downstream enterprises have been dragged down by high prices and have reduced or stopped production, resulting in a certain contraction in demand;
But the core contradiction in the current market is the large supply gap, strong short-term merchant replenishment sentiment, rapid rise in the electronic market, and reluctance of holders to sell to support the market. The dominant logic of price increases is still the supply side rather than the demand side.
4、 Outlook for the future: The high-level strong pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and attention should be paid to two major variables
According to the signals from the Business Society Spot Market Analysis System, the sulfur market is currently in an accelerated upward phase, with the difference between the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average continuing to widen. Prices are at a high level throughout the entire cycle, and the short-term strong pattern is difficult to reverse
If the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, import arrivals remain limited, port inventory continues to decline, merchant replenishment operations continue, port sulfur prices are expected to continue to rise, and domestic sulfur quotations will also follow suit;
2. If the downstream load reduction and production stoppage range expands, the transmission of high prices is hindered, market sentiment may cool down, and prices may enter a high-level consolidation stage, but the probability of a significant decline is low under the support of the supply-demand gap.
Focus on three key indicators in the future:
One is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of sulfur shipments from the Middle East;
Secondly, whether the domestic refinery supply guarantee policy has been adjusted, as well as the progress of equipment maintenance;
The third is the change in operating rates of downstream phosphate fertilizer and chemical enterprises, which raises concerns about the risk of demand shrinking beyond expectations under high prices.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (as of June 7, 2026), the domestic PA6 market has continued to decline weakly, with the decline gradually expanding, and there is a lack of favorable support for both costs and supply and demand sides. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of PA6 fell from 12300 yuan/ton in early June to 11700 yuan/ton on June 7th, a decrease of about 4.88%.
2、 Cause analysis
The price of core raw material caprolactam continues to weaken, which seriously lacks cost support for PA6. As of early June, the benchmark price of caprolactam has dropped from 12887.50 yuan/ton in early May to 11100 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of over 6% in May alone, directly driving down the production cost of PA6. The price decline of caprolactam narrowed in the first week of June, but there has been no signal of a rebound, and the cost side is still bearish.
The supply-demand pattern continues to be weak, with loose supply combined with weak demand, further suppressing prices:
Supply side: The operating rate of PA6 plant remains high, coupled with the concentrated release of new production capacity in the early stage, the overall supply is sufficient; Production enterprises have a strong willingness to ship, generally reducing inventory by exchanging price for quantity. The actual transaction price is generally lower than the listed price, and the industry’s inventory pressure continues to accumulate.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as textiles, synthetic fibers, and modified plastics are facing a shortage of orders, and are currently in the traditional off-season of demand. Enterprises lack confidence in the future market, and their procurement only maintains essential replenishment, resisting high priced raw materials. There has been no centralized procurement behavior, and the market trading atmosphere remains sluggish.
3、 Future forecast
In the short term, negative factors still dominate, and the PA6 market is weak and difficult to change. Prices are likely to continue to decline: downstream terminal demand is unlikely to show significant improvement, and the pace of enterprise destocking is slow. Although the operating load of the PA6 industry may slightly decrease, inventory pressure will continue; The narrowing decline in the price of raw material caprolactam has limited support for PA6, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend. If there is no catalyst for raw material price increases or a significant rebound in terminal orders in the future, it is difficult to have market reversal momentum in the short term.

From June 5th to 8th (as of 10:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 3160 yuan/ton to around 3213 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.69% during the period, a month on month decrease of 2.50%, and a year-on-year increase of 38.92%. Domestic and mainland methanol prices continue to rise, with inland factories concentrating on pre-sales and exceeding orders for shipments, causing obstacles to truck transportation and loading in many places; In addition, the rebound in futures has boosted market sentiment, and under the logic of buying up, spot prices in various regions have generally risen.
As of the close on June 4th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated and fell. The MA2609 contract opened at 2938 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2938 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2868 yuan/ton. It closed at 2877 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous day’s closing settlement. The MA2609 contract position was 694900 lots, a decrease of 31300 lots from the previous trading day.
On the cost side, coal supply is sufficient, but due to the rapid rise in market prices in the early stage, downstream resistance to high prices has increased, and prices may fluctuate narrowly. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, the market price of acetic acid continues to decline, the formaldehyde market is experiencing a narrow increase, and the dimethyl ether market is stable with some growth. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, some devices have undergone maintenance, while others have been restored. The overall recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, resulting in an increase in production and capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on June 4th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $605-607 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 151-153 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 450-452 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, both domestic methanol and downstream enterprises have maintenance losses, and the supply-demand game is relatively deadlocked. The inventory in ports and mainland China remains low, and the available spot goods for enterprises are tight. The circulation of methanol spot goods in the market is relatively limited, which still provides support for the methanol market. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.