Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have significantly decreased. On May 20th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 630 points, a decrease of 12 points from yesterday, a decrease of 37.44% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 132.47% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all declined. As of the 20th, the price of neodymium oxide was 770000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 8.33%; The price of neodymium metal is 950000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 7.77%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 765000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 8.11%; The price of praseodymium metal is 935000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price trend of 7.88% decline; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 855000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 8.06%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 695000 yuan/ton, with a mid month price decline of 8.55%.
Recently, the prices of light rare earths in the domestic market have significantly decreased, with core product prices continuing to decline, and the trend of market atmosphere weakening. The core is the large increase in the early stage, weaker demand during the off-season, relaxed supply margin, resonance of negative factors, and significant short-term market decline.
1、 Direct factor: Downstream demand is weaker during the off-season, and rigid demand is collapsing
New energy vehicles, wind power, and industrial motors have entered a deep off-season, with magnetic material companies operating at a rate of 55% -60%. Terminal prices are being suppressed, and magnetic material factories have zero inventory and demand based pricing. High priced goods are completely out of stock, resulting in a cliff like decline in transactions. In addition, reducing the amount of praseodymium neodymium used in mid to low end magnetic materials and increasing the proportion of recycled materials further weakens the demand for primary praseodymium neodymium. Downstream inquiry follow-up is insufficient, upstream merchants are constrained by weak demand, and overall trading is cautious, resulting in a significant decline in the light rare earth market.
2、 The previous increase was too large, and the recent market downturn
From the beginning of the year to the end of April, the light rare earth market saw a significant increase, with some recent market corrections. In early May, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law came into effect, with both positive and negative effects. Traders and smelters concentrated on selling and reducing inventory, resulting in a high concentration of low-priced orders and a significant decline in the light rare earth market.
3、 Supply side marginal relaxation, increased spot circulation
In 2026, the mining quota will increase, mainly focusing on light rare earths, with a smelting operation rate of 85% -90%, and the on-site inventory will continue to accumulate. In addition, Myanmar’s mineral imports have resumed (with a high proportion of light rare earths), and the production of praseodymium neodymium oxide by MP Materials in the United States increased by 63% year-on-year in the first quarter, filling the domestic gap. In the early stage, high priced and reluctant to sell goods were concentrated in the market, and the spot circulation increased month on month, breaking the balance and causing a decline in the market situation.
In the short term, the rare earth market is prone to decline but difficult to rise, with a focus on maintaining a downward trend. With the increasing demand in downstream fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power installation, and industrial motors, coupled with the continuous tightening of rare earth industry control, the expectation of strategic storage, and the recovery of overseas high-end manufacturing demand, the supply and demand pattern of rare earths is expected to tighten again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province was 4333 yuan/ton on May 15th, and 4250 yuan/ton on May 1st. In the first half of May, the market price of ammonium phosphate increased by 1.96%.
2、 Market analysis
The market for ammonium phosphate continued to rise in the first half of May. Raw material sulfur continues to rise at a high level, and cost pressure remains. Some manufacturers have executed previous orders, and dealers have increased their quotes. The operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises has decreased, the market supply has decreased, and downstream demand has weakened. As of May 15th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 4250-4400 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 4350-4450 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 4200 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material sulfur. The price of sulfur remained firm and rose in the first half of May. Recently, the trading atmosphere in the sulfur market has improved, and downstream demand continues to follow suit. It is expected to continue to rise in the short term. As of May 15th, the reference price for sulfur in Shandong region is around 7583 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market trend of ammonium phosphate has been dominant in recent days. At present, the raw material sulfur remains at a high level, with significant cost pressure, coupled with tight spot supply. It is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will continue to consolidate and rise.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 144033.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 13.84%.
In the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 6 times and risen 6 times, with a slight decline in nickel prices recently.
LME nickel inventory
Macroscopically, US President Trump arrived in Beijing by special plane and began his visit to China, followed by discussions on tariffs and other related matters; The US PPI surged 1.4% month on month in April, after the March data was also revised upwards to a growth rate of 0.7%.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in April was 35250 tons, a decrease of 5.59% month on month and 3.29% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for May is 33280 tons, a decrease of 5.59% month on month and 7.54% year-on-year
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The consumption of alloys is gradually recovering, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. The weak performance of stainless steel highlights the mentality of steel mills to suppress raw material prices; The high price of MHP provides support for the cost of nickel sulfate, but there is no significant increase in downstream ternary precursor orders, with nickel sulfate prices mainly fluctuating.
In summary, the supply pressure of refined nickel on the real end is not reduced, and the market resources are sufficient. However, due to the constraints of high raw material prices, the refined production schedule in May is expected to slightly decline. The intermediate products of nickel sulfate raw materials have been partially reduced in production, but downstream demand for ternary materials has fallen significantly. Due to the impact of policies and structural crowding out of iron and lithium, there has been no significant increase in orders from ternary precursor and positive electrode material enterprises, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. Overall, macro and Indonesian policies continue to be subject to repeated disturbances, with cost bottoms rising under the support of raw materials. Fundamental constraints are mainly due to the current supply pressure of refined nickel combined with insufficient inventory digestion. It is expected that nickel prices will mainly remain in a range of fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of heavy rare earths in the domestic market has declined since May. The prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal have all declined. As of the 14th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.35 million yuan/ton, with a half month price decline of 4.26%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.33 million yuan/ton, with a half month price decline of 3.27%; The price of dysprosium metal is 1.9 million yuan/ton, with a half month price decline of 1.04%.
Since May, the price trend of heavy rare earths in the market has declined. Due to weak terminal demand, market activity has gradually cooled down, and trading remains cautious. The demand for heavy rare earths in the market continues to be poor, and the inventory of dysprosium oxide is relatively high, resulting in most companies being cautious in their quotations. There are few low-priced sales, and the overall market sentiment is strong.
Downstream demand is extremely cautious in purchasing during the off-season
As the most important downstream, permanent magnet materials are facing a shortage of orders from magnetic material companies during the traditional off-season of new energy vehicles and wind power, resulting in a reduced operating rate of 60% -65%. Resulting in terminal price suppression, magnetic material factories purchase on demand, zero inventory, refuse high prices, and significantly reduce the demand for heavy rare earths. In addition, some mid to low end magnetic materials have reduced the addition of dysprosium and terbium, further suppressing demand and causing a decline in the market trend of heavy rare earths.
Restricted circulation+withdrawal of funds, sluggish market trading
The invoicing quota for rare earth trade is limited, resulting in increased transaction costs and decreased circulation efficiency. There is difficulty in obtaining goods and no market for valuable ones. Traders and magnetic material factories are watching from both sides, with few inquiries and weak transactions, making prices easy to fall but difficult to rise.
Market forecast: The decline in the heavy rare earth market in May is a short-term correction trend, driven by profit taking, off-season demand, liquidity and capital pressure, and expected cooling; In the medium to long term, rigid supply and new energy demand support the upward shift of the price center, and there is still room for rebound after a pullback.

According to the Business Society Spot News, in the first half of May, the formaldehyde market continued the weak adjustment trend of the second half of April, showing a pattern of “weak cost support, weak demand, and downward price fluctuations”. Short term supply and demand are difficult to change, and the price center continues to decline, stabilizing and rebounding after a slight bottoming out in the middle and late of the month. As of May 13th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1357 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07% from the beginning of the month and at a mid to high level for the year.
Driving factor analysis
1. Cost side: Weakening of methanol, profit compression forcing concessions
The price of raw material methanol first rose and then fell in the first half of May, with an overall decline of about 4.6%, which was significantly greater than that of formaldehyde, and the cost support continued to weaken.
The decline in methanol prices has significantly compressed the profit margins of formaldehyde enterprises, and the industry’s willingness to proactively offer discounts for shipments has increased, further amplifying the downward pressure on prices.
Short term methanol lacks significant rebound momentum, and the weak cost support pattern is difficult to change, making it difficult to form an effective bottom line for formaldehyde prices.
2. Demand side: The terminal is weak, and there is little incremental demand driven by essential needs
The operating rate of the downstream artificial board industry is less than 50%, and the sluggish real estate industry continues to drag down terminal orders. The procurement of supporting industries such as adhesives and coatings is mainly for essential needs, and the market’s willingness to replenish inventory is weak, lacking the demand increment brought by centralized stocking.
The traditional off-season effect combined with the approaching high temperature weather has led downstream enterprises to be cautious about future expectations and adopt a strategy of “buy as you go”, resulting in light market trading and difficulty in driving prices.
3. Supply side: Low operating levels+inventory accumulation, difficult to change loose pattern
The industry’s operating rate remains low, and the contraction effect of some equipment maintenance on supply is offset by the accumulation of enterprise inventory. The overall market supply is still relatively loose.
Market forecast:
Short term weakness bottoming out, the downward momentum gradually diminishing. The current bearish trend of “negative expansion” will continue, but as prices approach the medium to long-term cost line, the downward momentum will gradually weaken, and the overall pattern will be “weak bottoming out and low-level oscillation”.