1、 Price trend
From March 1st to 5th, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong continued to rise, with the center of gravity of cyclohexanone constantly adjusting towards higher levels. Shandong’s major factories raised their prices by 950 yuan/ton on March 5th, driving the overall market trend to converge. On March 5th, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong was around 8250-8350 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Geopolitical disturbances drive up costs: The ongoing tension in the Middle East and high international crude oil prices have driven up prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene. Pure benzene is the main raw material for cyclohexanone, and the recent rise in pure benzene prices has provided cost support for cyclohexanone, driving up production costs and increasing the willingness of enterprises to adjust prices.
Improvement in supply and demand transmission: The tight supply and the rebound in demand form a combined force for price increases. At present, some cyclohexanone units have entered the maintenance period in March, and the effective supply in the market has decreased. The spot inventory is at a relatively low level, coupled with the gradual recovery of demand in downstream industries such as chemical fiber and coatings. The market’s expectations for the recovery of cyclohexanone demand have increased, boosting market confidence, and the market supply and demand situation has shifted towards a tighter direction.
3、 Future forecast
Currently, under the dual effects of cost support and tight supply, the price of cyclohexanone is expected to maintain a high level in the short term, and there is a possibility of further slight increases. In the long run, it is necessary to pay more attention to the progress of adding new production capacity and the recovery of downstream demand. If the pressure on the supply side increases, prices may face downward pressure.

Recently, there has been a significant increase in domestic polyethylene prices, led by LDPE. It is the result of international geopolitical conflicts, rising costs, improvement in domestic supply and demand margins, and market sentiment resonance. The core driving force is the Middle East situation pushing up oil prices, import disturbances, and downstream resumption of work and replenishment.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 6605 yuan/ton on February 27th and 7125 yuan/ton on March 3rd, an increase of 7.87%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8683 yuan/ton on February 27th and 9450 yuan/ton on March 3rd, an increase of 8.83%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on February 27th was 7312 yuan/ton, and on March 3rd it was 7637 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.44%.
1. International geopolitics and cost side
Crude oil prices skyrocket, with strong support from the cost side
In early March, the situation in the Middle East escalated, Iran related conflicts intensified, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz increased. Recently, international crude oil prices have surged significantly, directly driving up polyethylene spot prices.
Import sources and logistics are obstructed
Iran is an important source of PE imports for China, with LDPE accounting for 14%, HDPE accounting for 11%, and LLDPE accounting for 3%. LDPE has the highest dependence on imports. The conflict has led to a shortage of Iranian goods and delayed shipping schedules. Oil tankers are forced to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to a significant increase in import costs and tight spot supply.
2. Domestic supply side
Concentrated short-term supply reduction during device maintenance
In March, there was no new production capacity added domestically, but there were more maintenance facilities, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization compared to the previous month and a tightening of supply margins.
High inventory but accelerated destocking
After the end of February, the inventory was high, but on March 3, after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, the downstream resumed work faster, the inventory reduction was accelerated, and the market shifted from “digesting inventory” to “replenishing inventory” to support prices.
3. Demand side
The peak season for downstream resumption of work and agricultural film production has begun
After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, downstream projects such as packaging, injection molding and pipe materials resumed in an all-round way, and the operating rate rose rapidly; In March, we entered the peak season for traditional agricultural film demand, with an increase in the purchase of plastic film and greenhouse film, which resonated with the demand for replenishment and storage.
4. Market sentiment and futures driven
On March 2-3, the main LLDPE contract of Dashang Exchange hit the daily limit up for two consecutive days, driving up spot prices; Traders have a strong bullish sentiment, being reluctant to sell and pushing up prices, further pushing up prices.
Short term polyethylene prices are still relatively strong, but attention should be paid to whether the situation in the Middle East has eased and whether oil prices can continue; The speed of domestic inventory turnover and the realization of downstream actual demand; Supply recovery status after maintenance is completed. If geopolitical conflicts persist and demand continues to rebound, prices are expected to remain strong; If oil prices fall back and demand falls short of expectations, the increase may narrow.

Today, driven by the sharp rise in the market, mainstream domestic bottle manufacturers have raised their spot prices one after another, and the market has strong bullish expectations. As of March 3rd, according to the price data from Shengyi Society, the mainstream average spot price of polyester bottle chips in East China is 6667 yuan/ton.
On the cost side: The main reason for the sharp rise in crude oil prices caused by the intensification of geopolitical situation, coupled with the significant strengthening of PTA futures, has significantly raised the center of gravity of aggregation costs.
Supply: Centralized reduction and shutdown of equipment, expected reduction in supply volume; Operating rate 68.42%
• Demand: Downstream soft drink production starts at 70-80%, gradually recovering
• Inventory: Available days 16.55 days, slightly increased month on month but still tight
In the short term, as long as the situation in the Middle East does not substantially cool down, the premium of crude oil and upstream raw materials will be difficult to eliminate, and the price of PET bottle chips will maintain a high volatility driven by costs. Short term forecast shows strong price fluctuations, following the fluctuations of crude oil/raw materials and moving up the range. If the device restarts, inventory accumulates, or there is a slight correction in the later stage.

1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices fluctuated widely in February. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 104496.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 102136.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 2.26% and a year-on-year increase of 32.91%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper futures prices were higher than spot prices in February, with the main contract being the expected price two months later. It is expected that copper prices will be relatively weak in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly in February. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 25370 tons, up 45.24% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, at the beginning of the month, the market’s expectations for loose global liquidity cooled down, coupled with concentrated profit taking in the early stages. The main copper contract in Shanghai fell more than 9% on February 3, hitting a temporary low. Subsequently, market sentiment gradually improved, but the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March was still considered low by the market, and the volatility of the US dollar index suppressed copper prices.
Supply side: The global copper concentrate is expected to have a shortage of 200000 tons, mainly due to aging mines, insufficient capital expenditures, and production disruptions. The global refined copper production growth rate is expected to drop to 1.1% in 2026, and the market may fall into a substantial shortage. In January 2026, China’s electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a month on month increase of only 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, but the growth rate has significantly slowed down. The industry generally expects that global refineries will face significant pressure to reduce production in 2026, especially small and medium-sized smelters with lower long-term order ratios may be the first to reduce production.
Downstream: The seasonal decline in downstream operating rates before and after the Spring Festival. The operating rate of cable companies for the week of February 12th was 56.01%, a decrease of 4.14 percentage points compared to the previous week; The year-on-year production of air conditioning from February to April was -31.6%, -6.5%, and+4.0% respectively, indicating weak demand in the traditional sector. However, the new energy sector continues to bring incremental consumption, and the construction of AI data centers, global power grid renovation, and energy facility reconstruction constitute structural demand support.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper has risen more than fallen in March.
In summary, in the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain range volatility. The high inventory pressure and slow seasonal resumption of downstream work will suppress the upward space of prices, but the shortage of mining and the expectation of smelting production reduction provide bottom support. In the medium to long term, with the recovery of domestic consumption and the depletion of global inventory, copper prices are expected to regain their upward trend.

Zinc price in February
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of February 28th, the zinc price was 24438 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.19% from the zinc price of 25776 yuan/ton on February 1st.
The zinc market has experienced a turning point from a “good start” to a “high resistance”. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, there has been an imbalance of strong supply and weak demand throughout the month, with a significant shift in the price center compared to January. At the beginning of the month, zinc prices continued to fluctuate from a strong high in January; Entering holiday mode in mid month, trading stagnates; After the holiday, there was a sharp contrast between stable production on the supply side and slow recovery on the demand side. Social inventory quickly accumulated to recent highs, suppressing the potential for price rebound.
In terms of raw materials
The zinc raw material market is currently showing a trend of tight supply and continuously low processing fees, which has built a solid bottom support for zinc prices. The processing fee for zinc concentrate remains at a low operating level. This week, the mainstream processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate fluctuated within the range of 1200-1500 yuan/metal ton. The processing fee for imported minerals is also fluctuating at a low level, with the mainstream market price ranging from $20 to $40 per dry ton. This price level is at a relatively low level in the past three years, fully reflecting that the pattern of tight supply in the mining sector has not changed.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, there is a trend of stable quantity and increasing inventory, with accumulated inventory becoming the core factor in suppressing prices. Specifically, the production at the smelting end remained stable. During the Spring Festival holiday, mainstream zinc smelting enterprises in China maintained shift operations, and the overall operating rate only slightly declined. Large refineries maintained an operating rate of over 75% with the support of long-term supply and by-product income, while small and medium-sized refineries faced profit pressure but have not yet experienced large-scale production cuts; After the holiday, with the resumption of logistics and personnel returning to work, the production of the smelting plant quickly returned to normal levels. At the same time, social inventory accumulated beyond expectations, becoming the most significant feature of the supply side in February. As of February, the total social inventory of zinc ingots exceeded 200000 tons. The weekly inventory data from the previous period showed that zinc inventory increased by 23972 tons this week.
On the demand side, the pace of downstream resumption of work is significantly slower than the same period in previous years. The resumption of production by downstream galvanizing enterprises is mostly concentrated around February 24th; This makes it difficult for the demand side to form an effective demand pull effect. The differentiation trend in segmented fields is extremely significant. Galvanized enterprises have suffered from the dual impact of environmental restrictions and shrinking orders in the north, resulting in a significant decline in operating rates compared to the same period last year; Die casting zinc alloy enterprises have taken early holidays, resulting in a significant extension of inventory turnover days; The zinc oxide industry has been dragged down by the decline in operating rates of tire factories, resulting in a decrease in production compared to the previous period. However, the amount of zinc used in the new energy sector increased by 18% year-on-year, but this increase has not yet formed an effective demand hedge.
Spot trading remains sluggish. The resumption of work after the holiday did not meet the expected goals, and coupled with some companies completing phased replenishment of inventory in the first week after the holiday, the purchasing willingness quickly cooled down, and the market spot transactions remained sluggish. The downstream market mainly adopts the strategy of buying on demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen slightly, but downstream procurement is still relatively light.
Future forecast
In February, the zinc market operated under pressure in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price center shifted significantly downwards compared to January. The contradiction between stable production on the supply side and slow recovery on the demand side is ultimately reflected through the rapid accumulation of inventory. The traditional consumption peak season in March is approaching, and the market is expected to have a direction choice – if downstream resumption of work accelerates as scheduled, coupled with smooth inventory clearance, zinc prices are expected to experience a temporary recovery trend; On the contrary, if demand remains weak, inventory pressure will continue to suppress prices.