The magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region has declined, with an average market price of 15100 yuan/ton as of the end of the month and 15750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 4.13%.
This month’s market analysis
In October, the overall domestic magnesium ingot market showed a significant weak downward trend. Due to the sustained weakness in demand and the pessimistic spread of market sentiment, magnesium prices have been fluctuating downwards since the beginning of the month. However, the deep “V” rebound of the “moving average” indicator at the end of the month and the slight pullback in prices suggest that the market has encountered strong cost support and demand for oversold repair in the process of bottoming out.
Fundamentals:
On the supply side: Some production enterprises that were previously scheduled to suspend production for maintenance have gradually completed maintenance and resumed production, and the supply of goods has steadily increased. Coupled with the lack of new centralized production restrictions and production cuts, the market’s available spot resources have gradually accumulated, and the overall spot supply is relatively abundant, leading to an increase in supply pressure.
On the demand side, downstream processing industries such as aluminum alloys, die-casting, and sponge titanium continue to be under pressure, with insufficient increase in end consumer orders, low production enthusiasm of downstream enterprises, and industry operating rates remaining at a low level. Against the backdrop of weak prices, downstream procurement is cautious and generally follows the operational strategy of “buying up and not buying down”, only maintaining the need to replenish inventory, with weak willingness to actively stock up. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is light, and actual transactions are mostly scattered small orders, with few large-scale transactions occurring.
Cost side: Although there have been some fluctuations in the prices of core reducing agents and energy such as ferrosilicon and coal recently, they have remained relatively high overall. The current magnesium price is approaching the breakeven line of some high cost factories, and the extreme compression of profit margins has weakened the willingness of manufacturers to continue to significantly reduce prices. The bottoming out effect on the cost side is gradually emerging.
Future forecast
The current magnesium market is in a critical game period of “destocking and bottoming out”. In the short term, the weak macro sentiment and sluggish downstream demand will continue to suppress the high rebound of magnesium prices; However, considering that the extreme deviation of the mean difference indicator has been repaired and the cost support line is close at hand, it is expected that the possibility of a significant drop in magnesium prices next week is relatively small. The market is likely to bottom out with a narrow range of fluctuations in the price range of 15000-15300 yuan/ton. It is recommended that downstream enterprises moderately replenish their essential inventory at low prices, while upstream manufacturers need to pay attention to fluctuations in raw material prices and their own inventory levels to avoid blind selling.

In the second half of October, the overall trend continued to decline and fluctuate weakly. As of October 28th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 5866 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% compared to the middle of the month.
Analysis of Market Driving Factors
Supply side: After the resumption of production, the spot supply capacity of the device has improved, and the inventory pressure of some manufacturers has increased, resulting in an increased willingness to ship.
Demand side: The demand for electrolyte solvents has weakened significantly, and downstream demand for industrial grade multidimensional rigid procurement is limited, with limited acceptance of high prices.
On the cost side, the recent trends of methanol and epichlorohydrin have diverged, and the cost support has loosened compared to the previous period, making it difficult to sustain the upward movement of DMC.
Market forecast:
Short term dimethyl carbonate is likely to maintain weak stability and oscillation, with insufficient driving force for further significant increases.
Shortfall factor: With sufficient supply, industry operating rates recovering, and ample supply circulation, if factory inventory continues to accumulate, manufacturers may increase the frequency of flexible adjustments to their offers. Weak demand has led to a certain reduction in terminal consumption, with a more significant weakening in the demand for electrolytes and solvents. Other downstream industries tend to maintain on-demand procurement or follow up on urgent needs, making it difficult to effectively digest the newly added supply.
Supporting factors: If methanol and epichlorohydrin strengthen again, or if downstream inventory replenishment and foreign trade orders rebound, prices may receive temporary support.

In the past week (October 21-27), the domestic PA66 market has maintained a horizontal and volatile pattern, with mainstream ex factory quotes remaining basically unchanged. The average spreads on the 5th, 10th, and 20th have all returned to zero, with no clear long short signals. The market volatility is minimal, and trading is light, mainly consisting of long order deliveries and sporadic rigid demand transactions.
cost analysis
The prices of upstream adiponitrile and hexamethylenediamine remained stable this week, without significant fluctuations. The cost side formed a bottom support, but the upward momentum was insufficient. At the current slicing price, the industry’s production profit margin is limited, and the cost side does not have the conditions to drive prices to continue rising. The risk of unilateral fluctuations in raw materials has not yet emerged.
Supply and demand analysis
In terms of supply, the mainstream PA66 production facilities in China have maintained a moderate level of operation, and the supply of sliced goods is sufficient, but the pressure of circulating inventory still exists; At the same time, the newly-built production capacity of 80000 tons of PA66 in Suizibo is approaching production, and the expected increase in supply continues to suppress the market’s upward space. Major factories have a strong willingness to stabilize prices, but there is insufficient motivation to actively raise prices. The demand side is clearly differentiated, with relatively stable orders for high-end industrial fibers such as airbag filaments and tire curtain fabrics, forming a certain level of support; The follow-up of downstream orders for modified injection molding and ordinary nylon textile is weak, and end enterprises are cautious about high-level raw materials, generally insisting on on-demand procurement and small order replenishment according to demand, lacking centralized replenishment drive.
Short term forecast for the future market
Short term PA66 is likely to continue its high volatility trend, with a 60 day cycle price at a high level and limited upward potential; The one-year cycle is at a medium low level, with long-term upward potential, but limited impact on short-term market conditions. If there is no significant increase in upstream raw materials or concentrated replenishment of downstream inventory, the unilateral upward trend is difficult to realize. It is necessary to focus on tracking the pace of new production capacity deployment and changes in downstream auto parts and industrial silk orders.

This week, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region has risen. As of October 23, the average market price in Henan region was 8350 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 8225 yuan/ton on October 17, an increase of 1.52%.
This week, the market for cryolite has been operating strongly, with enterprise cryolite prices rising. Although the price of upstream fluorite has been narrowly lowered, it is still relatively high, providing strong support for the cost of cryolite; Downstream purchases of high priced cryolite are mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable; The tight spot market on the supply side and the low inventory pressure on manufacturers have driven up the price of cryolite. As of October 23rd, the ex factory price of cryolite in Shandong region is 8000-8800 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is 8000-9000 yuan/ton.
The upstream fluorite market is weakly consolidating, with an average market price of 3668.75 yuan/ton as of October 23, a decrease of 0.34% compared to the price of 3681.25 yuan/ton on October 17. The domestic fluorite industry is affected by mining control measures, resulting in a low operating rate and tight supply of market goods, which provides strong support for fluorite prices. Some mining companies have made slight concessions, leading to a decrease in actual transactions.
Market forecast: The upstream operating rate of cryolite is not high, and the raw material support is relatively strong; The downstream electrolytic aluminum industry’s orders are improving, providing strong support for the shipment of cryolite enterprises; At the same time, the spot market is relatively tight, and the fundamentals in the market are optimistic. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to operate at a high level in the later stage, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.