Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has strengthened. As of May 12th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 199000 yuan/ton, up 32.67% month on month and 198% year-on-year. Futures prices have simultaneously strengthened, with the LC2609 contract, the main force of lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, successfully breaking through the 200000 yuan/ton mark and setting a new high in recent times.
Rapid price increase driven by mismatch between supply and demand
The price of lithium carbonate has officially opened an upward channel since early April. This rise is not driven by short-term market sentiment, but is due to the dual support of fundamental supply and demand and market expectations. The mismatch between downstream demand recovery and upstream supply constraints is the core logic of this round of price strength.
Supply side: Currently, the available supply of lithium mines is tight, and there are frequent disturbances in overseas mining. Some lithium mica mines in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, China are in the stage of certificate renewal, and mining activities may temporarily stagnate. The market is concerned that the tight situation in the mining side will be transmitted to the lithium salt sector.
On the demand side: Although the sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of this year did not meet expectations, the actual demand for power batteries still achieved year-on-year growth thanks to the increase in the charging capacity of individual vehicles; Combined with the stimulation of high oil prices, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China significantly recovered in April. At the same time, the energy storage shipments in the first four months exceeded market expectations, jointly driving the impressive production performance of downstream enterprises in May and June, and the overall demand side showed a positive trend.
Lithium prices are subject to short-term variables and medium – to long-term risks
In the short term, if Zimbabwe’s lithium mines can arrive at the port smoothly before the end of June and the resumption procedures for Jiangxi’s mica mines proceed smoothly, it is expected to correct the current overly optimistic sentiment in the market and alleviate the tight supply situation.
In the long run, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increases, the demand share of the energy storage market gradually increases, and the global energy storage market presents a clear pattern of “China leading, the United States and Europe following, and emerging markets filling the gap”. But the current high price of lithium, a raw material for energy storage, will to some extent lead to a decrease in energy storage demand, thereby causing a price collapse. At present, this negative feedback has not yet occurred, but if lithium prices remain above 200000 yuan for a long time, energy storage demand will eventually shrink, but this process may take 1-2 quarters to fully reflect. If the price of lithium continues to remain above 200000 yuan, the advantages of sodium batteries will gradually become prominent, accelerating the industrialization process of low-priced sodium batteries and compressing the market share of lithium batteries.
According to the Business Society Spot News, the current 10 day moving average (red) of battery grade lithium carbonate prices is above the 20 day moving average (blue), and the spread has widened, indicating an accelerated upward trend and still having upward momentum. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

price trend
In early May, the domestic PC market was in a state of consolidation and operation, with some spot prices of certain brands fluctuating. As of May 10th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16233.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In early May, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises still decreased. The entire line of Cangzhou Dahua in the interval will be shut down for maintenance, with an industry load of around 74%. There are still maintenance plans in the future, and the expected increase in production losses. At present, the average weekly output is over 60000 tons, and overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market continued to consolidate at a low level at the end of last month in May. Due to fluctuations in international crude oil prices and the decline in phenol prices, the center of gravity of domestic bisphenol A prices has been dragged. At the same time, the current supply of bisphenol A has limited changes while demand remains weak. Merchants are actively shipping and tend to sell at discounted prices. The overall support for PC cost value has weakened.
On the demand side: Due to the lack of improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises, the transmission of high PC spot prices is hindered. The load position of downstream factories of PC remains relatively low. Although the current PC price has fallen from a high level, it is still within the three-year high range. The buyer is cautious in stocking up and has a poor willingness to build a warehouse. Pre holiday inventory still needs to be digested, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, resulting in slow liquidity of goods sources. The merchant’s mentality is not strong, and their offers are made according to the market, resulting in an increase in profit giving and order taking operations. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In early May, the domestic PC market was consolidating at a high level. The price consolidation of upstream bisphenol A is weak, and the cost value provides moderate support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has slightly decreased, although there are still expectations of a decline, the supply side benefits are limited. On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, and buyers have a cautious mentality, taking whatever they need. Trading is mostly small orders. It is expected that the PC market will continue to be suppressed by fluctuations in cost values in the short term, and there may still be room for downward adjustment.

1、 Market Overview:
This week, the spot price of propylene remained at a high level. Although the daily price fell to 9591.00 yuan/ton on May 8th (a decrease of 2.21%), the overall price center has significantly increased compared to late April. The current price is 9591.00 yuan/ton, which is at a high level within a year.
Although the moving average price line has some twists and turns, it always relies on the moving average system to rise; Especially in early May, a wave of upward movement stabilized the price platform in the high range of 9400-9800 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of core indicators of Business Society Spot Connect:
1. Mean Deviation Index (Core):
The red 10 day moving average is currently running steadily above the blue 20 day moving average. This belongs to a typical “positive expansion” pattern, indicating that although there was a single day correction on May 8th, the short-term upward momentum is still abundant, and the bullish trend has not been disrupted.
2. Price Position Indicator (Auxiliary):
As of May 8th, propylene was at a “medium high” or “high” level during the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, and 90 day cycles. This indicates that the current market is in an absolute strong cycle, with strong downward support.
3、 Supply and demand fundamentals:
The fundamentals are bearish (with increased supply), but the technical aspects are bullish (with a positive widening of the spread). The resumption of maintenance equipment in May resulted in increased supply and weak demand. In theory, prices should decrease.
Why are prices still strong? Technical interpretation:
Cost support: Although supply has increased, the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may be supporting raw material costs, leading to prices’ inability to fall ‘. The upward momentum from late April to early May was significant, and market sentiment has not yet been completely reversed by fundamentals. The decline on May 8th (-2.21%) currently appears more like a technical correction after a rapid rise, rather than a trend reversal.
4、 Price forecast:
1. Short term trend (next week): Strong oscillation, try to repair. Since the moving average is in the stage of “positive expansion”, it indicates that the upward trend is not yet complete. The decline on May 8th is likely due to short-term profit taking, with prices expected to gain support around 9500 yuan/ton and once again test the previous high of 9800 yuan/ton.
2. Medium term risk (next 2-3 weeks): It is necessary to closely monitor the emergence of “positive shrinkage” signals. Although it is currently expanding in a positive direction, the pressure of fundamental oversupply is real. If the price cannot break through the previous high of 9824.33 yuan/ton and the moving average begins to level, then the “positive expansion” will turn into a “positive contraction”, which is the true signal of peaking.

This week, there has been a continuous shortage of overseas supply, with high prices of acrylonitrile in foreign markets and continued support for exports. Domestic consumption continues to decrease, and spot purchases are insufficient, resulting in poor transactions. The price trend of raw material propylene is strong, and the cost push has led to a slight increase in acrylonitrile prices. As of May 8th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 10900-11100 yuan/ton, which is 100 yuan/ton higher than last week’s 10800-11000 yuan/ton; Short distance delivery to Shandong market is priced at 10650-10750 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week’s price of 10550-10650 yuan/ton.
Supply increase:
Within the week, CNOOC’s 200000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant has resumed production on one line. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has increased, leading to an increase in supply. According to statistics, as of May 7th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 65.12%, an increase of 1.11% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 76000 tons, which is+0.13 million tons compared to the previous cycle. During the week, supply remained low and inventory levels fluctuated, but overall it remained controllable. According to statistics, as of May 6th, the total inventory was around 48000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Decreased domestic demand:
This week, downstream users are resistant to high raw material prices, and the overall utilization rate of production capacity in major industries has declined. The utilization rate of ABS production capacity was 57.45%, which was -2.75% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 24.95%, which is 10.88% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 57.21%, which was -0.23% compared to last week. Overall, the demand for acrylonitrile has decreased and consumption continues to decrease.
Cost increase:
During the week, the price of raw material propylene rose sharply, leading to an increase in costs, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly increased, resulting in a narrowing of theoretical profits and worsening of production losses. According to statistics, as of May 8th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 9700 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton from 9485 yuan/ton last week. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 12325 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 3.79%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -1325 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of -370 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the domestic acrylonitrile market is currently in a stalemate and consolidation, the external situation is still unstable, domestic demand continues to be weak, and spot buying gas is insufficient. In addition, Liaoning’s 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant plans to shut down for 15-20 days in early June and Shanghai’s 520000 ton acrylonitrile plant will shut down for maintenance on May 7th. The overall load will decrease from 50% to 25%, and the short-term market will be mainly stabilized under the synchronous reduction of supply and demand.

1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices first rose and then fluctuated at a high level in April. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 96953.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 101498.33 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 4.69% and a year-on-year increase of 31%.
In the first half of April, the spot price of copper was higher than the futures price, and the main contract was the expected price two months later, causing copper prices to rise; In the second half of the month, futures prices were higher than spot prices, with weak upward momentum.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory first rose and then fell in April. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 399725 tons, up 10.6% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve maintains its “static braking” strategy, and the April interest rate decision is in line with market expectations (keeping interest rates unchanged). However, due to inflation expectations driven by geopolitical conflicts, market expectations for interest rate cuts this year have significantly cooled down, and the high operation of the US dollar index has exerted some pressure on copper prices. The economic data for the first quarter started well, with the manufacturing PMI rising by 0.1 percentage points month on month in April, continuing to be in the expansion zone.
Supply side: Since April, TC has continued to decline and fallen into a deep negative range. TC has been negative for 16 consecutive months. In theory, smelters should reduce production on a large scale, but in reality, domestic production in China remains at a high level. The secret lies in the abundant profits from sulfuric acid by-products. Smelting one ton of copper produces about 3.5-4 tons of sulfuric acid as a byproduct. Previously, the price of sulfuric acid soared to 1760 yuan/ton (a year-on-year increase of 204%), allowing pyrometallurgical plants to maintain production under the “inverted” processing fee.
Due to the accelerated erosion of furnace lining by high sulfur ore, the maintenance that was originally scheduled for July and August has been advanced to the second quarter. In April, 8 smelters have entered the maintenance period, and it is expected that a total of 13 smelters have maintenance plans, affecting a total output of about 224000 tons. The estimated production of electrolytic copper in April is 1.1731 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the previous month and an increase of 4.2% year-on-year. Under the background of tight copper concentrate and smelting losses, the maintenance efforts may exceed expectations.
Downstream: Downstream processing enterprises have a clear fear of high copper prices and tend to adopt rigid procurement, resulting in weak new orders and a market dominated by long orders. But the performance of the power sector is impressive – the growth rate of power grid investment is strong (79.84% year-on-year growth in January and February), and power investment has increased by 32.35% year-on-year, which is the biggest support direction for domestic copper consumption. The predicted operating rate of cable companies is 72.63%, setting a new high for the year. In terms of household appliances, the total production of the three major white goods in April was 37.64 million units, a decrease of 3.6% compared to the same period last year. The performance in the real estate sector has been lackluster, with limited impact on copper consumption. The export momentum of the “new three types” represented by photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries is strong. The proportion of copper demand in emerging fields is expected to reach about 25.44% in 2026, driving about 810000 tons of copper demand, including 280000 tons driven by new energy vehicles (a year-on-year increase of 16%), 270000 tons driven by AI data centers (a year-on-year increase of 31%), 110000 tons driven by energy storage (a year-on-year increase of 58%), 80000 tons driven by photovoltaics (a year-on-year increase of 3%), and 70000 tons driven by wind power (a year-on-year increase of 12%). The construction of AI computing power centers and the expansion of PCB production have opened up new growth opportunities for copper consumption.

In summary, from May to June, domestic smelters entered a period of intensive maintenance, coupled with the continuous contraction pressure of overseas wet smelting, the release of refined copper production was limited, and the slowdown in supply growth rate will support copper prices. Since May, China has restricted the export of sulfuric acid, which may lead to a drop in sulfuric acid prices and compress smelting profits. If the by-product income significantly decreases, it will strengthen the expectation of smelting plants reducing production and form structural support for copper prices. After the peak season of “Silver IV”, there may be a seasonal decline in demand intensity, but the high investment in power infrastructure continues, and the demand for copper for AI computing power center construction is still increasing. Domestic inventory depletion remains the core observation indicator for short-term price support. Looking ahead to the trend in May and the second quarter, it is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level.