Recently, the natural rubber market has seen a significant increase. Data shows that as of November 12th, the market price of natural rubber in China was around 19033 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.29% from last Friday’s 18250 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the inventory depletion exceeded expectations, and on the other hand, the short-term rebound of raw materials supported the price of natural rubber. ​
During the peak production season, there is no accumulation of inventory but rather a decrease in inventory, which is supported by the supply of natural rubber. As of November 8, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 547600 tons, a significant decrease of 14400 tons or 2.57% compared to the previous month. The prices of raw materials have rebounded and stopped falling, and the cost side of natural rubber has once again been supported. Recently, rainfall in southern Thailand has once again disrupted rubber cutting, while high temperatures and drought in Indonesia have suppressed production, driving overall high prices of natural rubber raw materials. As of November 12th, the natural rubber raw material market in Thailand’s production areas has risen: cigarette chips are priced at 84.20 baht/kg; Glue price is 78.25 Thai baht/kg; The price for cup glue is 72.10 Thai baht per kilogram.
The downstream tire industry has a relatively low year-on-year operating rate, with a focus on essential procurement. As of November 6th, the construction rate of semi steel tires in China is 6.40%, while the construction rate of all steel tires is 5.80%. After entering the peak season, tire companies continued to control production, and the cooling in the north dragged down the replacement market and slowed down the pace of shipments. In terms of exports, the situation in the Middle East and the EU’s anti-dumping measures have led to a reduction in China’s tire exports. The accelerated landing of domestic tire production capacity in Indonesia and Vietnam has also diverted raw material export sources. Customs data shows that from January to September 2026, China’s cumulative tire exports reached 6.4503 million tons, an increase of 0.93% year-on-year. Although the cumulative year-on-year export is still positive, the growth rate is under pressure.
Market forecast: Short term strong oscillation, limited space below; The logic of medium – and long-term production cuts supports the distant months.
The current natural rubber inventory is declining, coupled with the continuous interference of rainfall in southern Thailand and drought in Indonesia on rubber cutting, which firmly supports the cost of raw materials. Under the low inventory of finished products in tire enterprises, there is a need to replenish inventory, and the space for rapid decline is limited. In the short term, natural rubber prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall, with strong fluctuations at high levels. ​
In the long run, the impact of super El Ni ñ o has a lag effect, usually fully manifested six months to a year after the peak of the event, and there is still a climate reduction premium in the far month contract. The structural reduction logic of aging trees, leaf blight in Indonesia, and declining production in Vietnam in major producing countries remains unchanged. ANRPC predicts that the global supply and demand gap for natural rubber will be about 280000 tons by 2026 and will expand compared to the previous year. Institutions generally believe that the true trend market needs to wait until the production reduction data in the first half of next year is realized.

In early November, the domestic PC market experienced a downturn, with spot prices of various brands falling. As of November 11th, the PC mixed benchmark price is around 14783.33 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -1.22% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: Since November, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has remained relatively narrow. The overall industry load rate is close to 81%. At present, the average weekly output is less than 70000 tons, and the shipping speed of the polymerization plant is average. The domestic equipment remained stable in the first ten days, and the overall supply impact of load fluctuations was limited. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is sideways.
In terms of raw materials: Since the beginning of November, the domestic bisphenol A market has been fluctuating, with an overall decline. Bisphenol A was pushed to a temporary high at the end of last month. With the increase of supply and weak demand, the focus of spot prices is under pressure and shifting downwards. On the upstream side of the industrial chain, the victory of the Democratic Party in the midterm elections earlier this month has somewhat suppressed the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. International crude oil prices plummeted at high levels, and the geopolitical risk premium quickly dissipated, causing phenol and acetone to fall accordingly. Looking at it now, the bearish guidance for bisphenol A is significant, and there may still be room for further decline in the future. Overall, the support for PC cost value has weakened.
In terms of demand: As we enter November, there is no significant increase in the purchasing situation of PC downstream factories. The load position of terminal enterprises continues to operate at a low level, and the demand for sheet metal shells is average. The driving effect of Double 11 e-commerce consumption still needs to be observed. Buyers’ acceptance of high priced goods has further decreased, while merchants tend to follow the market and profit from selling goods to recoup funds. On exchange trading tends towards weak demand, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and buyers are cautious in stocking up. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In early November, the domestic PC market weakened. The center of gravity of upstream bisphenol A prices has shifted downward and is dominated by negative factors; Limited load fluctuations in domestic PC aggregation plants; On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, and large-scale receiving and stocking operations are rare. At present, the supply and demand of PC tend to be broadly balanced. Analysts believe that PC may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Market Review: Over the past week (November 4-10), the PA66 market has been experiencing weak spot trading, with some mainstream factories lowering their prices. The benchmark price for PA66 has fallen from 19200 yuan/ton to 19133.33 yuan/ton, indicating an increased potential for actual order negotiations in the market. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 10-90 day cycle is in the median range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range; The moving average system is intertwined with long and short positions, without clear trend signals, and the short-term market trend shows a fluctuating and weak pattern.
2、 Cost analysis shows that the upstream supply of adiponitrile is sufficient, overall production remains high, and raw material prices fluctuate narrowly. There is a certain cost floor, but there is a lack of upward momentum. At present, the profit margin of PA66 slicing processing is limited, and some production enterprises still face loss pressure, with a willingness to reduce production and maintain prices. However, the loose pattern of upstream raw materials has not substantially changed, and it is difficult for the cost side to drive the upward breakthrough of PA66 prices.
3、 Supply and demand analysis: On the supply side, the overall operation of PA66 plants in China remains at a moderate level, with sufficient supply of sliced goods in the market and pressure on circulating inventory. Some companies have the intention to stabilize prices, but there is significant competition in the market for shipments, and there is obvious resistance to actively pushing up prices. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as modification, injection molding, and textile airbag silk have limited capacity for production increase. Downstream terminals mostly insist on on-demand procurement and on-demand procurement, with weak willingness to replenish inventory on a large scale. They only rely on basic needs to support the bottom and lack the release of incremental orders. Under the game of supply and demand, the market lacks upward driving force, and the market maintains a volatile and wait-and-see trend.
4、 Short term forecast: The short-term PA66 spot market may continue to fluctuate weakly. The fundamentals of loose raw materials and abundant spot supply are difficult to reverse quickly, and the conditions for a significant price increase are not yet met; However, currently in the mid to low range of the year, the expected reduction in production caused by corporate losses provides some support for the downward space, and there is limited room for further decline. The mainstream operating range is expected to be 18800-19400 yuan/ton, with a focus on the release of downstream autumn and winter terminal orders and factory equipment maintenance dynamics.

This week, the crude oil market has fluctuated repeatedly, and geopolitical news continues to disturb market expectations. Although crude oil has fallen continuously in the early stage and closed slightly in stages, it has not formed a sustained upward trend guidance, and cost support has fluctuated. As prices continue to decline, traders are cautious and their quotes are continuously decreasing in line with the market trend. Under the stimulation of low prices, some downstream companies have engaged in buying at low prices with a small amount of replenishment operations, but most of them are just small orders for essential needs. There is a lack of willingness to purchase in large quantities, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is light. The price difference related to aromatic hydrocarbons continues to shrink, while the price difference between PX and mixed xylene, as well as pure benzene toluene, narrows synchronously. Downstream processing profits are squeezed, further suppressing procurement enthusiasm. Under the combined effects of cost disturbance and weak demand, the price center of toluene has significantly shifted downwards.
From November 2 to November 9, 2026, the domestic toluene market as a whole showed a narrow range of fluctuations, with an average market price of 8866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week on November 2 and 7600 yuan/ton on the weekend on November 9. The cumulative weekly decline was 14.29%.
Cost aspect:
The trend of crude oil this week is the core variable of toluene cost, and crude oil first fell and then rebounded slightly during the week, lacking sustained upward momentum overall. The cost boost brought by the temporary rebound of crude oil is limited, making it difficult to hedge against the negative impact of the previous oil price drop. As a refined aromatic hydrocarbon product, toluene has a strong correlation with crude oil. The shift in the center of gravity of crude oil has driven down the expected cost of refining, putting sustained downward pressure on toluene spot prices. Crude oil is affected by the alternation of geopolitical news, with a fast fluctuation rhythm. The market has significant differences in expectations for forward costs, and many businesses mainly engage in short-term operations and dare not stockpile for the long term. The cost side has failed to provide stable support for toluene. As of November 6th, the settlement price of the December contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $90.83 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January contract is $98.32 per barrel.
Supply side:
This week, the overall operation of domestic toluene refinery facilities has been stable, with industry production maintaining a medium to high level. There are currently no centralized large-scale maintenance arrangements, and the domestic production of toluene products has remained stable. The external cargo has arrived at the port as planned, and the supply of goods from the main ports in East China is orderly. The port inventory is in a neutral range, and there is no obvious shortage of overall goods. Only partial regional spot prices are temporarily tight, forming a weak support for local quotations, and the regional price difference differentiation is limited, which is not enough to reverse the overall weak market trend. As the market continues to decline, the pressure on refinery shipments is gradually increasing. Some companies are offering discounts to promote transactions, and the supply of circulating goods is sufficient, making it difficult for the supply side to form strong bullish support.

Demand side:
The demand side is the core factor dragging down the toluene market this week, and downstream comprehensive profits continue to be weak. The price difference between the processing of disproportionation and PX units has narrowed, putting pressure on production profits. Downstream units are maintaining normal load operation, and there is a weak willingness to actively stock up; Downstream orders for coatings, solvents, TDI, and other terminal products are not being followed up effectively, and there has been no significant increase in terminal production. Procurement is mainly based on on-demand procurement, with only sporadic dips to replenish positions during the price drop window, and a lack of centralized buying to release orders. The downstream has a low acceptance of high priced goods and generally maintains a wait-and-see attitude. Against the backdrop of weak price difference structure, the buying atmosphere is difficult to fundamentally improve, and the demand side lacks the driving force to continuously drive the market.
PX is one of the main downstream directions of toluene. This week, the price difference between PX and mixed xylene continues to narrow, putting pressure on the processing profits of the equipment and limiting the production enthusiasm of PX enterprises. The device basically maintains its current load operation without obvious plans to increase load. It follows up on the purchase of toluene raw materials as needed, and has a weak willingness to actively increase procurement and stock up in advance. It only replenishes a small amount with production consumption, and has not formed a sustained demand for raw material procurement, which has limited driving effect on toluene.
Market forecast:
The domestic toluene market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile operation in the short term. The cost side of crude oil is affected by the geopolitical situation, with strong volatility and uncertainty, and fluctuating support; There is currently no centralized maintenance plan for the refinery on the supply side, and the pace of port to ship operations is stable. The supply of spot goods remains loose, and there is no significant contraction in the supply side. In terms of demand, it will take some time for downstream processing profits to recover, and the expectation of a rebound in terminal orders is weak. Concentrated buying is difficult to release quickly, and the weak price difference pattern is not likely to change in the short term. Overall, the game between cost disturbance and weak demand will continue, and the upward resistance of toluene is relatively high. The follow-up focus will be on tracking the trend of crude oil prices, changes in port inventories, the commencement of disproportionation and PX units, and the pace of downstream inventory replenishment.

This week, the styrene market experienced a wide decline, with an average price of 11300 yuan/ton on November 2nd and 10280 yuan/ton on November 6th, a decrease of 9.03% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 52.93%.
Macro: On November 5th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $90.52 per barrel, an increase of $2.40 or 2.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January was $98.29 per barrel, an increase of $3.67 or 3.9%.
Cost aspect: The price of pure benzene has dropped significantly. Oil prices are dominated by the US Iran situation, with the Democratic Party winning control of Congress and expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a result, international oil prices have dropped significantly, and pure benzene has been greatly affected by this. Entering November, some maintenance devices will return, and supply expectations will increase; From the demand side, with the decrease in raw material prices, the recovery of downstream profits, the increase in production, and the rebound after the drop in oil prices, it is expected that the market for pure benzene will stabilize in the short term.
Supply and demand side: Recently, the restart and maintenance of some styrene maintenance units have coexisted, resulting in overall tight supply of goods and low port inventory. From the demand side, downstream resistance to high priced raw materials is evident. After the price drops, downstream profits are released and production slightly rebounds, but overall support is insufficient.
Styrene external market: On November 5th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region fell by $60/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $1295-1305/ton. CFR China closing price ranges from $1235 to $1245 per ton.
Market forecast: The current styrene market is mainly affected by fluctuations in crude oil, with low inventory levels, continuous destocking at ports, and weak supply and demand. It is expected that the styrene market will consolidate and operate after a short-term decline.