Current situation of ethylene glycol market
In September, the price of ethylene glycol continued to rise
The price of ethylene glycol will soar in 2026, and the current price has reached a new high in nearly 4 years. As of September 8th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 6458.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.13% from the market average price of 3864.17 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1st).
Port paper goods are mainly priced based on basis, with prices closely following fluctuations in the futures market. Recently, the futures price of ethylene glycol has risen significantly, and the base quotes of port paper cargo ethylene glycol base traders are high and firm. The contract basis for this week is 900-940 yuan/ton, and the quotation range is 6700-6900 yuan/ton.
Domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol spot (loose water, tax included, self pickup) vehicle manufacturers have raised the auction price to 6050-6400 yuan/ton.
2. In September 2026, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port was extremely low
On September 7, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 120000 tons, a decrease of 296000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on July 30, which was 416000 tons; Compared to March 2nd, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 926400 tons, a decrease of 806400 tons in inventory
At present, the inventory of ethylene glycol at ports is extremely low, setting a new historical low.
Houthi militants warn of Saudi energy facilities’ impact on ethylene glycol prices analysis
1、 Basic pattern of China’s ethylene glycol import
1. China’s total import dependence on ethylene glycol is about 27-28%, with a total import of 7.72 million tons by 2025.
2. Saudi Arabia is the largest source of ethylene glycol in China: imports from Saudi Arabia account for 54-55% of the total import volume, about 4.22 million tons per year; The overall Middle East accounts for over 71% of imports.
3. The ethylene glycol petrochemical bases in eastern Saudi Arabia, such as Jubail, heavily rely on the Strait of Hormuz for product exports; The shipment of the West Coast device will take place through the Red Sea Mandeb Strait, both of which are within the threat range of Houthi armed attacks.
4. There is coal to ethylene glycol production capacity in China as a hedge, but it is difficult to fully compensate for the significant shortage of Saudi Arabia’s supply in the short term.
2、 Key points of this event (news)
The Houthis have publicly warned that all important energy and industrial facilities in Saudi Arabia are legitimate targets of attack, in retaliation for Saudi military actions. Not only sea vessels, but also Saudi domestic petrochemical and oil and gas facilities are directly included in the threatened list.
The risk is divided into two layers: ① the risk of Saudi Arabia’s local ethylene glycol production plant being attacked and shut down; ② Persian Gulf and Red Sea shipping are under attack, posing a risk of disruption to export logistics.
3、 Transmission path of price increase
1) Emotions and Risk Premium
The expectation of supply interruption in market transactions does not necessarily mean that the device has been blown up.
If there is a risk of attack on the Saudi ethylene glycol petrochemical industrial zone, overseas traders will immediately raise their FOB prices; Domestic long funds will trade on the expectation of import reduction, while futures and spot prices will quickly rise.
Two shipping routes are under pressure simultaneously: the eastern route via Hormuz and the western route via the Red Sea’s Mandeb Strait. The Houthis are threatening the entire Saudi Arabian territory, and neither route can completely avoid danger. Shipping companies will add war risk and some ships will detour around Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a significant increase in sea freight costs and further pushing up the cost of arrival.

2) Scenario 1: Only verbal warning without actual striking device
The actual supply of goods has not been substantially interrupted, only the shipping risk has increased.
Price: Pulse like increase, risk premium, limited sustainability. Once the conflict does not escalate, the premium will quickly fall back; Domestic port inventory and arrival forecasts will once again dominate the market.
3) Scenario 2: If Saudi Arabia’s oil/petrochemical (ethylene glycol) plant is actually hit and damaged
Saudi Arabia has a total production capacity of 7.75 million tons of ethylene glycol, making it one of the world’s largest export destinations.
1. Equipment damage and parking: directly reducing global ethylene glycol export supply, China loses hundreds of thousands of tons of Saudi Arabian goods every month; The total amount of alternative sources (Canada, United States, Kuwait) is limited, making it difficult to fill the gap in the short term.
If there is an attack on the waterway, ships will seek refuge, and the arrival volume will significantly decline. Domestic port inventory will quickly deplete, and spot prices will continue to strengthen, with contracts in the near month far stronger than those in the far month.
3. Crude oil prices have risen synchronously, and Saudi Arabia’s ethylene glycol is a naphtha/ethane route, which has increased raw material costs and further supported the bottom of ethylene glycol prices.
4) Domestic hedging forces (restraining the upward trend)
1. The increase in domestic coal to ethylene glycol production capacity and the rise in coal to ethylene glycol operating rates after price increases can offset some of the import gap.
2. Downstream polyester demand, if raw material prices rise too quickly and weaving and polyester factories resist, there will be a decrease in load, which in turn will limit the space above ethylene glycol.
4、 Current market reality constraints
1. The Houthis have issued similar warnings multiple times in the past, with verbal threats outweighing actual attacks on production capacity. The biggest characteristic of geopolitical drive is its volatility, with the market rising and falling quickly, and highly depending on whether the conflict is resolved.
2. The current inventory location and monthly actual arrival forecast of ethylene glycol ports in China are the core indicators for verifying whether geopolitical factors are truly transmitted to domestic physical goods; If the arrival volume does not significantly decline, the market’s geopolitical premium will gradually be absorbed.
3. Far month contracts are more dependent on the increase in domestic production capacity, as geopolitical conflicts have a weaker driving force on the far month than in the near month, which can easily lead to a near strong far weak structure.
5、 Summary
1. Because over half of China’s ethylene glycol imports come from Saudi Arabia, the Houthis have listed energy facilities throughout Saudi Arabia as targets for attack, which has brought an upward risk premium to ethylene glycol and is one of the catalytic factors for the recent price strengthening.
2. The market height depends on the follow-up: whether there is a real attack on Saudi domestic petrochemical facilities, and whether Persian Gulf and Red Sea shipping is actually obstructed. Only verbal intimidation, the market belongs to pulse speculation; Once production capacity or shipping is substantially damaged, ethylene glycol will experience a sustained supply driven increase.
3. Risk: If the conflict eases, the previous geopolitical premium will quickly rebound, while the release of domestic coal production capacity and weakened downstream demand will suppress prices.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated widely this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 129116 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 5.72%.
Macroscopically, the US non farm payroll data for August exceeded expectations, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has risen to 66.9%. The strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed risk assets. The situation in the Middle East has repeatedly disturbed market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors continue to dominate short-term fluctuations in nickel prices. Macro pressure resonates with weak fundamentals, limiting the sustainability of nickel price rebound.
On the supply side, Indonesia’s RKAB quota remains at 260 million to 270 million tons, a significant contraction from 379 million tons in 2025. WBN has been approved to increase its quota by 25 million tons in the second half of the year. The IMIP park is expected to reduce production by 40% due to drought, but it has not been verified yet. LME stainless steel “Golden September” peak season has not yet been realized, with high production of 300 series but insufficient release of terminal consumption. Although social inventory has slightly decreased, it is still at a high level. The purchase of ternary precursors for new energy is only necessary, and there is a lack of incremental consumption of nickel sulfate. Both downstream industries are mainly driven by rigid demand, and there is no centralized replenishment drive.
Influencing factors: The pace of the final quota implementation of Indonesia’s RKAB and the execution of IMIP production reduction are key variables. The Federal Reserve’s September interest rate meeting and subsequent inflation data will affect macroeconomic sentiment. The actual recovery level of demand during the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” determines the pace of destocking. The approaching rainy season in the Philippines may provide seasonal support for mining areas.
In summary, this week the nickel market continues to have a weak supply-demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand continuing to suppress prices, and supply disruptions in Indonesia only providing temporary support. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will remain weakly fluctuating within the range of 127000 to 130000 yuan/ton. In the future, the focus will be on the implementation of Indonesia’s quota policy, the actual execution of IMIP production cuts, and the pace of demand recovery during peak seasons.

This week, crude oil and propylene prices have risen strongly, and raw material costs have significantly increased. In addition, the short-term supply increment is still limited, and the industry inventory is still not under pressure. Therefore, acrylonitrile suppliers have maintained overall high prices, and the market has also stopped falling and consolidated as a result. As of September 4th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 11550-11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is between 11250-11350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Supply increase:
During the week, the acrylonitrile plant in Jiangsu gradually increased its load, with plans to gradually resume operation of three sets in early September. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 520000 tons of acrylonitrile have now recovered to around 90% of its load, and the East China plant is gradually increasing its load; In the northern market, Liaoning’s facilities have gradually restarted and resumed, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has recovered to over 70%, with a significant increase in overall supply. According to statistics, this week (August 28-September 3), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 72.19%, an increase of 4.14% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 84200 tons, which is+0.48 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The increase in supply within the week is temporarily limited, and the inventory of enterprises is still controllable. As of September 2nd, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories is about 50000 tons, which is+0.050 million tons compared to last week.
Limited incremental demand:
This week, the utilization rate of production capacity in major downstream industries has increased and decreased. Among them, the utilization rate of ABS production capacity was 57.5%, which was -1.1% compared to last week, and the East China factory decreased; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 51.25%, which is -0.23% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 55.87%, an increase of 6.69% compared to last week, and the overall demand for acrylonitrile remained relatively stable.
Cost increase:
During the week, crude oil and propylene prices rose strongly, and raw material costs significantly increased. Acrylonitrile prices remained stable, resulting in a significant decrease in theoretical production profits. According to statistics, as of September 4th, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market was based on 9200-9400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 635 yuan/ton from last week; The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 11808 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 4.34%. The average production profit is -58 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -801 yuan/ton.
Post production forecast: Currently, major factories in East China are gradually increasing negative growth, and overall demand expectations are increasing. However, there is no expectation of improvement in downstream demand. Although the market downturn has been limited by rising raw material costs in the near future, basic bearish expectations continue to exist, and downstream users are still resistant to high raw material prices. Purchasing enthusiasm is still difficult to improve. However, due to concerns about the impact of cost on long-term supply, the pace of market downturn will still be slow.

This week, the domestic PX market price trend has risen, with an average price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 9000 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 5.88% and a year-on-year increase of 25%.
The rise in crude oil prices provides significant cost support
In early September, the US Iran conflict escalated in a new round, and market pricing was expected to “hit the upgrade”, leading to a continued strong rise in oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz is a core channel for global energy transportation, and its disturbance directly triggers panic in the aromatics market, leading to an increase in the crude oil market and a rise in the PX market.
Supply side: inventory depletion, tight spot availability
Recently, the scope of load reduction for refineries in Asia has expanded, and multiple sets of equipment in China have undergone centralized maintenance in the early stage, resulting in a decline in PX supply in the Asian region; Domestic PX production has rebounded to about 74%, but inventory continues to deplete and the tight spot market remains unchanged, causing holders to raise prices and hesitate to sell.
Demand side: PTA restart expected+polyester replenishment
PTA production has rebounded to about 63.8%, with plans to restart/increase the burden of multiple units in the context of low inventory and high profits, resulting in marginal improvement in PX demand expectations; The downstream demand for polyester chains is still acceptable, and spot inventory replenishment has increased, forming a strong pattern of “double increase in supply and demand, stronger demand increment”, and the PX market trend is rising.
Market forecast: In the short term, the PX market is mainly characterized by strong fluctuations, intensified volatility, and easy to rise but difficult to fall. The core depends on whether the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased and the recovery of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; The terminal profit of polyester has been squeezed. If the terminal orders cannot continue to improve, the demand side support will weaken, which will affect the increase in PX.

1、 Review of August Market Trends
In August, the domestic PA66 spot market as a whole stabilized at a low level and experienced a slight rebound at the end of the month. In the first half of the year, the market price remained stable at around 18000 yuan/ton for a long time, and the focus of transactions remained stagnant; As we entered the latter half of the year, the bullish sentiment in the market gradually heated up. On September 1st, the spot price rose to 18166.67 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.93%, and the price completed a phase of slight increase. From the perspective of cycle position, the current one-year cycle price is at a medium low level, and the short-term 10 day and 20 day cycle prices have reached a high range. After a short-term rebound, the price pressure signal appears.
1. Cost analysis
The supply of upstream adipic acid and adiponitrile raw materials is relatively loose, and there has been no significant increase in basic raw material prices. The bottom support for PA66 production costs is moderate, and a strong cost driven market has not been formed. The profit margin of the enterprise’s production side has been restored, and the factory’s operating load has steadily rebounded. The cost side has not provided strong impetus for the continuous upward trend of spot prices. The slight increase at the end of this round is mainly driven by the supply and demand of spot prices, rather than cost induced price increases.
2. Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the mainstream PA66 production enterprises in China are operating smoothly overall, with sufficient supply in the industry and no shortage of market sources. With the price rebounding from the previous low, some factories have increased their willingness to raise prices, providing some support for spot prices. On the demand side, August belongs to the traditional off-season of downstream engineering plastics, modification, and injection molding industries. Downstream terminal factories purchase on demand and take on as needed, with weak willingness to stock up in large quantities. The release pace of demand is gentle, and the upward transmission power is limited. The overall pattern of abundant supply and moderate recovery of essential demand has constrained the room for price increases, making it difficult for the market to break out of a unilateral surge.
2、 Short term future forecast
The short-term PA66 market is expected to maintain strong volatility and high pressure operation. The moving average indicator sends out a bullish signal, indicating solid support at the bottom of the price and limited downward space; However, in the short term, the prices of the 10 day and 20 day cycles have already reached a high range, coupled with insufficient follow-up from downstream demand. The momentum for further significant increases in the short term is weak, and the market is likely to mainly operate in a range oscillation, with a slower upward trend in prices. In the medium to long term, the current annual price is at a mid to low level and still has upward potential.