On July 10, 2026, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was referenced at 9330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from July 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9350 yuan/ton), with a price reduction of 30 yuan/ton.
1、 Trend analysis
Entering July, the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal 441 # showed a narrow downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the overall market situation of silicon metal was weak and consolidated, with some regions and models experiencing a narrow downward trend. On July 9th, the silicon metal market mainly experienced a decline in multiple regions, with a decrease of about 50-100 yuan/ton. On July 10th, the silicon metal market fluctuated, with some regions experiencing a slight correction and others still experiencing a downward trend. As of July 10th, the price reference for non oxygenated 553 # in East China is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton, the price reference for oxygenated 553 # is around 9000-9100 yuan/ton, and the price reference for 441 # is around 9200-9300 yuan/ton. The price reference for non oxygenated 553 # in Tianjin is around 8900~9000 yuan/ton, for oxygenated 553 # it is around 8900~9000 yuan/ton, for 441 # it is around 9000~9200 yuan/ton, and for oxygenated 553 # in Inner Mongolia it is around 8700~8900 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream market demand for silicon metal remains mainly on demand, and downstream users still have a strong purchasing mentality and are cautious in stocking up. Although the market is currently experiencing a period of high demand and downstream production is expected to increase, overall demand support has not yet brought significant improvement to the market situation.
On the supply side: Currently, the overall inventory performance of the silicon metal market is relatively sufficient, and the loose supply side has brought certain supply pressure to the market. The game between supply and demand is gradually becoming prominent, and the transmission performance of supply and demand is also difficult to make significant changes to the market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the market attention is strong. There is no obvious positive signal released in the market. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate weakly. Juhai still needs to pay attention to the resumption of production in some areas and downstream construction, and whether the future market can gradually balance supply and demand.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in July
The price of ethylene glycol will stop falling in July 2026. As of July 9th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 4346.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% from the market average price of 4391.67 yuan/ton on July 1st; Compared to the market average price of 4291.67 yuan/ton on July 2nd, it has increased by 1.28%.
The price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo is mainly based on basis pricing, and the price closely follows the fluctuations of the futures market. In July 2026, ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded, and the base price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo remained relatively firm. As of the 9th, the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons) has a daily basis price range of+144 to+156 for this week’s spot contract.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 3630-3800 yuan/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in July 2026:
On July 9, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 427500 tons, a decrease of 90000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on June 29, which was 517500 tons.
Summary of the reasons for the halt in the decline of ethylene glycol prices in July 2026:
The logic of stopping the decline of ethylene glycol prices in mid to early July 2026 is concentrated in six dimensions: domestic supply contraction, continuous deep destocking of ports, bottoming out of costs, geopolitical sentiment repair, strengthening of spot basis, and downstream stocking expectations.
1. Domestic equipment is undergoing centralized maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in local supply
The integrated oil to ethylene plant has been shut down, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene to MEG production has dropped to around 50%, resulting in a significant reduction in monthly domestic production increment.
The coal to synthesis gas plant has entered a peak period of maintenance, with multiple sets of coal to synthesis gas plants undergoing centralized load reduction/shutdown. Although some Northwest coal to synthesis gas plant maintenance has been postponed, the overall non ethylene production has weakened compared to the previous period, and the domestic total production has remained at a low level of 53% -56%. The monthly total output has declined, and the supply of spot goods has tightened.
New production capacity deployment window: Large scale oil to gas production facilities will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of the year, with no new production capacity realized in July and no short-term incremental impact on prices.
2. The arrival of imports at the port did not meet expectations, and the port continued to deeply reduce inventory, resulting in a low inventory for the same period
The short-term increase in imports from the Middle East is limited: navigation in the Strait of Hormuz resumed in June, but the release of ethylene glycol floating warehouse cargo from the Middle East was slow. In early July, the forecast for Chinese arrivals remained in single digits for a long time, and the weekly port volume was low. The import increment was concentrated in August, and the total import volume in July remained weak.
The continuous depletion of social inventory in East China ports and across the country: the inventory in the main ports of East China is the lowest in the same period of the past five years; In early July, the port and national social inventory decreased synchronously, and the weekly destocking continued to expand. The market spot liquidity tightened, and there was no logic of accumulating inventory to suppress prices.
Typhoon weather disrupts delivery: In July and August, typhoons occurred frequently along the coast of East China, causing ships to be stranded and unloading to be delayed, further reducing the circulation of spot goods in the short term and strengthening the expectation of tight balance.

3. The cost side forms a clear downward bottom, and losses inhibit manufacturers from continuing to lower prices:
The oil production route is deeply losing money, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices: in early July, the loss of producing ethylene glycol from naphtha expanded to $180/ton, and the continuous decline in prices will force refineries to further reduce their losses, and export sales will be reluctant. The downward space is locked in by costs.
Profit recovery of coal production route, no motivation to sell goods at low prices: coal prices weakened during the same period, coal to ethylene glycol cash flow turned losses into profits, factories have no pressure to sell and clear inventory, and spot prices remain rigid.
Geopolitical fluctuations in crude oil, cost sentiment repair: In early July, the US Iran friction heated up again, and the market was concerned about disruptions in the transportation of the Hormuz waterway. Brent crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, while naphtha rebounded synchronously. The overall valuation of the energy and chemical sector recovered, driving a rebound in the cost sentiment of ethylene glycol.
4. The spot basis continues to strengthen, and traders concentrate on replenishing at low levels:
Spot prices have risen significantly compared to futures: In July, spot prices have risen by 140-165 yuan/ton compared to September contracts. The “near strong, far weak” pattern of tight spot prices in recent months and loose spot prices in distant months has been established, and spot prices have stopped falling first, driving the futures market to stop falling.
5. Downstream polyester off-season marginal improvement, expected early trading in Jinjiu peak season:
The polyester load has slightly rebounded, and the demand for essential purchases has increased: in July, the profits of polyester filament and short fiber processing were restored, and some large factories promoted shipments to digest finished product inventory. The production of polyester has slightly increased, and the consumption of ethylene glycol essential needs has slightly increased compared to the previous month, completely preventing a bottomless decline without demand.
The traditional “Golden September” peak season is expected to ferment: the market will trade in advance during the textile and packaging peak season from August to September, and downstream bottle and weaving enterprises will lock in forward raw materials at low prices, with forward buying orders entering to support prices.
6. Macro and financial sentiment turning point, short positions profit and exit:
Pre market bearish pricing: In June, the market had already traded ahead of schedule with all bearish factors such as cross-strait navigation, increased import volume, polyester off-season, and weak crude oil. In July, there were no new major bearish factors, and bearish funds concentrated on taking profits and leaving the market.

Market trend
This week (July 1-7), PA6 spot prices showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising. From July 1st to July 6th, the market benchmark price remained stable at 11633.33 yuan/ton, and the market continued to consolidate sideways; On July 7th, the price rose by 1.72% to 11833.33 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in the central price during the week. From the perspective of the moving average signal, on July 7th, there was a golden cross signal where the 10 day moving average crossed the 20 day moving average, and the short-term trend turned from weak to strong; The annual price position is in the median range, and the bottom support is evident. The downward trend that lasted for nearly three months in the early stage has temporarily come to an end.
influencing factors
Cost side
The upstream caprolactam continued to operate at a low level in the early stage, and some units underwent load reduction and maintenance due to industry processing losses. The tightening of raw material supply led to the stabilization of caprolactam and the emergence of bottom support for PA6 production costs, significantly closing the downward space. International crude oil fluctuates narrowly, with no significant negative impact on the energy sector, suppressing the raw material pure benzene. The cost side no longer continues to drag down slice prices; At the same time, after a deep pullback in raw materials in the early stage, the losses of current slicing enterprises have narrowed, and the cost surface is moderately prepared to provide upward momentum, providing a foundation for a slight rebound this week.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the centralized maintenance of the caprolactam plant has led to a contraction in raw material supply, resulting in a low level of production in the polymerization factory. The increase in market circulation of goods is limited, and the pace of inventory turnover among manufacturers has slightly accelerated. As a result, the willingness of holders to sell at low prices has weakened. On the demand side, downstream modified plastics and spinning enterprises had low raw material inventory in the early stage, and after the price stopped falling, the demand for replenishing inventory was concentrated. The terminal on-demand procurement volume slightly increased month on month, and market trading improved compared to the early stage of the first ten days; However, the traditional off-season in the industry has not completely ended, and downstream bulk stocking willingness is limited. Demand is only temporarily recovering, making it difficult to form a sustained strong driving force.
Future forecast
It is expected that PA6 will maintain a low-level strong oscillation trend in the short term, with moderate upward momentum, but there is insufficient room for a significant continuous rise. The short-term operating range is based on 11700-12100 yuan/ton. The sustained strengthening of the market requires meeting two major conditions: the continuous price increase of caprolactam and the concentrated bulk replenishment of downstream terminals; If the raw material side weakens again, the market will return to narrow range consolidation.

1、 Overall price trend
As of July 6th, the benchmark price for imported potassium chloride trading was 3566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% compared to 3583.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of July. From June 24th to early July, prices fluctuated upwards, with the 10 day moving average continuing to rise and prices surging to the high range; In early July, the market turned from stable to downward, with prices slightly falling, ending the previous upward trend.
2、 Interpretation of Mean Deviation Index
The 10 day moving average rose slightly before leveling off and falling back, with a positive narrowing of the moving average, indicating a slowing down trend rather than a downward signal. However, the upward momentum has weakened, and the price has entered a stage of horizontal consolidation, without initiating a downward trend.
3、 Analysis of Price Levels 5
From the price range of 5 levels, potassium chloride has dropped to a low level in the 10 day range, remains at a medium high level in the 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, and one-year cycles, and is at a medium level in the 90 day range.
The short-term price has fallen back to the stage low, but the medium and long-term prices are still in the high range, and there is still price suppression above. The short-term decline belongs to a high-level correction, not a trend oriented sharp decline, and the overall downward space is relatively limited.
4、 Fundamental driven reasons
1. Weakening of international cost margin: International potassium fertilizer prices have slightly loosened, overseas port arrival costs have declined, and the circulation of potassium chloride sources at ports is sufficient, resulting in a decrease in cost support.
2. Domestic demand has entered the off-season: the stage of agricultural field fertilization has basically ended, and downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have seen a decline in production, with only a small amount of essential needs being replenished. Market procurement demand has significantly weakened, and demand support is insufficient, which is the core factor causing price stagnation and decline. The accumulation of port inventory has increased the willingness of traders to ship, and some low-priced sources have lowered the overall market price.
5、 Prediction of future market trends
Short term potassium chloride has entered a high-level correction phase, with the upward momentum diminishing and the moving average continuing to contract in a positive direction, resulting in a narrow and weak market consolidation. At present, it is only a slight pullback caused by the off-season demand. Before the start of autumn fertilizer stocking, the market is unlikely to have a significant rebound.
In the medium to long term, there is a bottom support for the import cost of large contracts, and prices will not experience a significant decline. It is expected that from mid to late July to August, with the gradual opening of autumn fertilizer stocking and the recovery of downstream demand, prices are expected to regain support.

This week, the acrylic acid market has shown a sustained downward trend. As of July 6th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7116.67 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 7.38% compared to 7683.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of July.
However, the trend of its main raw material propylene is completely opposite. During the same period, the benchmark price of propylene was 7694.33 yuan/ton, which has risen by 3.82% since the beginning of the month. The rise in raw material costs and the decline in product prices have formed a clear deviation, and the supply-demand game dominates the current market trend.
1、 Spot moving average spread indicator: The downward phase has accelerated, and the downward trend has been temporarily suspended before entering consolidation
From June 29th to early July, the 10 day moving average remained below the 20 day moving average, and the Business Society spot price spread was negative, showing a negative expansion of the spread, corresponding to the accelerated decline of acrylic acid in the early part of this week. On June 29th and July 1st, there were consecutive daily declines of over 3%, and prices quickly fell.
On July 4th and 5th, the price of acrylic acid remained unchanged at 7116.67 yuan/ton for two consecutive days and will not continue to decline. Although the bearish pattern of the 10 day and 20 day moving averages has not changed, the moving average has not yet turned from negative to positive, and there is no trend of rebound signal, the negative expansion trend of the moving average has clearly converged, the downward momentum has significantly weakened, the downward speed has slowed down, and the market has entered a period of consolidation and oscillation.
2、 Price Level 5: The entire cycle has fallen to a low level, and the downward space has significantly narrowed
The prices of acrylic acid on the 10th, 20th, 30th, 60th, 90th, and one-year cycles are all in the low range. After this round of significant decline, the price of acrylic acid has fallen to a temporary low level, and the space for further significant decline is suppressed. Traders’ willingness to sell at low prices is gradually decreasing.
3、 Deviation between cost and supply and demand: The rise in raw material propylene prices supports costs, while weak downstream demand suppresses the market
On the cost side, there is a reverse support: this week, the price of propylene raw materials rose by 3.82% against the trend, and the cost pressure on acrylic acid production enterprises increased. Manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices has also increased, limiting the further downward space for acrylic acid.
The supply and demand fundamentals are still weak: the operating load of on-site equipment on the supply side is stable, the market supply is abundant, and sufficient supply suppresses prices; Downstream terminal enterprises have a cautious purchasing mentality, only maintaining small orders for essential needs, with insufficient willingness to stock up in large quantities, and weak demand making it difficult to drive price rebounds. The balance between cost support and weak demand has become the core contradiction in the current market.
Prediction of future market trends
Short term acrylic acid is difficult to break free from the low-level oscillation pattern. The moving average indicator has not yet sent a signal of turning upward, and the price lacks trend driven rebound momentum; However, the cost support brought by the raw material propylene and the historically low product prices will prevent prices from falling sharply again.
The follow-up market will focus on two points: firstly, whether downstream essential procurement can gradually increase volume and improve the weak demand situation; The second is whether the price of propylene raw materials can continue to rise and strengthen cost support. If there is no significant improvement in demand, the price of acrylic acid may continue to remain low around 7100 yuan/ton.