Cobalt prices stop rising and fall in July
On July 16th, the cobalt price was 378800 yuan/ton, which first rose and then fell by 0.42% compared to the cobalt price of 380400 yuan/ton on June 30th; Compared to July 10th, the cobalt price dropped by 383800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77%. At the end of June, cobalt prices stopped falling and rose. In early July, cobalt prices were strongly consolidating, downstream demand was weak, and cobalt prices fell rapidly.
Supply side: The growth of cobalt recycling alleviates the tight supply in the cobalt market
The Strategic Mineral Market Supervision Bureau of the Democratic Republic of Congo officially announced on June 30, 2026 the treatment plan for unused cobalt export quotas in the first half of 2026: unused quotas will be directly invalidated and reclassified into the national strategic quota pool, and enterprises will no longer be allowed to carry over to the second half of the year for use. The tight supply of cobalt raw materials in the Democratic Republic of Congo has intensified.
In 2025, the supply of recycled cobalt in China will be about 23000 metal tons. By 2026, the supply of recycled cobalt in the first half of the year has reached 21000 metal tons, and it is expected to reach 45000 to 50000 metal tons for the whole year, which can meet 35% of China’s cobalt demand. The significant increase in cobalt recycling has greatly alleviated the supply shortage in the cobalt market.
Demand side: downstream weakness intensifies
On July 15th, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that from July 1st to 12th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 280000 units, a decrease of 8% compared to the same period last July and a decrease of 3% compared to the same period last month. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have reached 4.984 million units, a decrease of 14% year-on-year; From July 1st to 12th, Chinese passenger car manufacturers wholesale 262000 new energy vehicles, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last July and a decrease of 15% compared to the same period last month. Since the beginning of this year, a total of 7.05 million vehicles have been wholesale, a year-on-year increase of 4%. In July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles both decreased on a month on month basis, and the sales performance of new energy vehicles was poor. The weak terminal demand in the cobalt market intensified.
In June, the installed capacity of ternary batteries in China was 12.7GWh, accounting for 16.5% of the total installed capacity, a decrease of 5.5% compared to the previous month and an increase of 18.1% year-on-year; The proportion of ternary battery installation has decreased, and the total installation volume has decreased month on month. The cobalt consumption of ternary batteries has also decreased, and the weak demand in the cobalt market has intensified.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Analysts believe that the sales of new energy vehicles have declined, the installation volume of ternary batteries has decreased, the cobalt market continued to be weak in July, and demand has further declined. However, the supply of cobalt raw materials in the Democratic Republic of Congo has not been restored for a long time, and the unused quota in the first half of the year has been invalidated, exacerbating the shortage of cobalt supply in the market; But the significant increase in cobalt recycling has greatly alleviated the supply shortage in the cobalt market. In the context of weak supply and demand in the cobalt market, the cobalt market may be seeking a weak balance. The supply-demand gap in the cobalt market may not meet market expectations, and the supply-demand gap may tighten, resulting in insufficient support for cobalt price increases. Overall, the weak supply and demand situation in the cobalt market continues, and in the short term, it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate weakly and consolidate in the future. In the medium to long term, the supply shortage in the cobalt market is difficult to change, and there is still room for cobalt prices to rise.

Market trend
In the past week (July 8-14), the domestic PA6 market has shown a pattern of “stable at the beginning and rising later”. The price remained stable at 11833.33 yuan/ton in the early stage, and on July 14th, it increased by 2.54% to 12133.33 yuan/ton. From the perspective of price range, the price positions on the 10th, 20th, and 30th have risen to “high levels”, while the positions on the 60th and 90th are still at “medium low levels”, and the annual position is at the “middle level”. It is worth noting that there have been signals of “10 day breakout above the 20/30 day moving average” and “10/20/30 day super rise” on the technical side, indicating a strong short-term upward momentum and pressure for technical correction.
influencing factors
Cost side
The upstream raw material caprolactam (CPL) market has recently been affected by strong fluctuations in the prices of pure benzene and crude oil, resulting in an increase in the cost center. Part of the caprolactam factories have increased their prices, which has squeezed the production profit margin of polymerized PA6 chips. Under the cost transmission mechanism, PA6 manufacturers are forced to follow up and increase their quotations to pass on the increasing cost pressure. The current strength of raw material prices provides strong support for the bottom of PA6.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, some PA6 production facilities have undergone maintenance and load reduction, resulting in a slight decline in overall industry production and limited increase in market supply. Some factories have increased their willingness to raise prices, while their willingness to sell at low prices has weakened, providing support for spot goods. On the demand side, downstream spinning and modification factories are still in the traditional off-season, and terminal orders have not yet rebounded on a large scale. However, with low raw material prices in the early stage, downstream enterprises have increased their willingness to replenish inventory at low prices, and the volume of essential purchases has slightly increased compared to the previous period. However, the follow-up efforts of the terminal are limited, and the purchasing sentiment is cautious in pursuing price increases at high prices.
Future forecast
It is expected that PA6 will experience strong fluctuations in the short term in the future market. The strong pattern of upstream caprolactam continues, with stable cost support; The pressure on factory inventory has eased, and manufacturers have a strong mentality of raising prices. However, downstream demand during the off-season is difficult to release quickly, and there is resistance to high price transmission. The momentum for sustained and significant price surges is insufficient, and after the rebound, there may be a period of consolidation and oscillation. Focus on tracking the price trend of caprolactam, factory maintenance plans, and downstream autumn and winter order follow-up.

The domestic PP market rebounded in the first half of July. The prices of various brand products have increased significantly. As of July 14th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing was quoted at 9093.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.53% compared to the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
Although there were frequent positive signals of high-level peace talks between the United States and Iran in the Middle East in June, the situation has fluctuated recently and the ceasefire has been affected. The risk of shipping recovery in the Strait of Hormuz has increased, and there are concerns in the market about international crude oil supply, leading to a rapid return of geopolitical premiums. International oil prices have rebounded, and the remote cost value of PP has strengthened; Propene is stimulated and upregulated synchronously. At the same time, the domestic supply has been affected by the parking of companies such as HSBC, resulting in a contraction of supply. Coupled with the recent frequent occurrence of export windows, the further digestion of domestic goods by exports, coupled with favorable guidance from the market, has led to a strengthening of prices. Overall, the raw material market has a positive impact on the cost of PP.
Supply side:
In the first half of July, the overall operating rate of the domestic PP industry remained low with a narrow increase. Market supply within the range is expected to relax. As of press time, the overall load of the domestic industry is over 66%, and the weekly output has rebounded to nearly 780000 tons. The current inventory position is around 540000 tons, and the overall supply of goods is abundant. Overall, the supply side has average support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
The current consumption of polypropylene is still at a low season level, coupled with the compression of terminal profit margins due to rising costs, the downstream market of the industry remains resistant to high prices. However, the strengthening of cost value and futures basis simultaneously stimulates on exchange trading, activating some of the position building orders. Overall, the trading atmosphere tends to be cautious, with many buying small orders at low prices. The improvement in operating rates for small and micro enterprises is limited, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and digest, with a comprehensive operating rate of less than 45%. The overall situation on the demand side is weak, which provides poor support for PP.
Future forecast
In the first half of July, the domestic PP market prices rebounded strongly and rose. Fundamentally speaking, the geopolitical premium on the cost side has returned, the industry load has slightly rebounded from a low level, and the changes in port imports to the port are limited. The off-season market on the demand side continues, and it is difficult to increase volume in the short term. Business Society PP analysts believe that although there is a certain degree of supply-demand contradiction in the current PP market, it is rapidly rising driven by cost value.

Recently, the domestic formic acid market has shown a stable and sideways trend after rising. As of July 13th, the benchmark price of formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2300 yuan/ton, up 9.52% from 2100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
After continuous increases, prices stabilize
The formic acid market experienced several days of continuous price increases and upward trends in early July, and the trading atmosphere in the market gradually rebounded, laying the foundation for maintaining stable prices in the future. After entering July 6th, the upward momentum of the market gradually dissipated, and the overall market returned to a rational and stable range. From the perspective of core supporting factors, the market shipment situation continued to improve in the early stage, effectively driving the overall inventory of the industry back to a reasonable range in the middle. The industry inventory pressure is controllable, providing solid fundamental support for the stable operation of formic acid prices at the current stage, effectively avoiding the risk of price decline, and building a solid market bottom.
From the perspective of market constraints, the formic acid industry is currently in the traditional off-season of consumption, with overall downstream terminal demand being relatively flat. The pace of essential procurement has slowed down, and the market lacks sustained demand growth benefits, making it difficult to push prices up again, which has become the core constraint for maintaining a sideways market trend. Overall, at present, the long short game in the formic acid market tends to be balanced, with a benign decline in inventory forming favorable support, weak demand during the off-season forming upward pressure, and a stable market pattern formed by the hedging of two-way factors.
Market forecast: In the absence of clear favorable factors such as new industry policies, raw material fluctuations, and increased demand, the domestic formic acid market is unlikely to break the current equilibrium pattern in the short term. It is expected that the stable and sideways trend will continue in the future, and mainstream prices are likely to remain stable. There is currently no expectation of significant fluctuations in the market.

On July 10, 2026, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was referenced at 9330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from July 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9350 yuan/ton), with a price reduction of 30 yuan/ton.
1、 Trend analysis
Entering July, the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal 441 # showed a narrow downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the overall market situation of silicon metal was weak and consolidated, with some regions and models experiencing a narrow downward trend. On July 9th, the silicon metal market mainly experienced a decline in multiple regions, with a decrease of about 50-100 yuan/ton. On July 10th, the silicon metal market fluctuated, with some regions experiencing a slight correction and others still experiencing a downward trend. As of July 10th, the price reference for non oxygenated 553 # in East China is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton, the price reference for oxygenated 553 # is around 9000-9100 yuan/ton, and the price reference for 441 # is around 9200-9300 yuan/ton. The price reference for non oxygenated 553 # in Tianjin is around 8900~9000 yuan/ton, for oxygenated 553 # it is around 8900~9000 yuan/ton, for 441 # it is around 9000~9200 yuan/ton, and for oxygenated 553 # in Inner Mongolia it is around 8700~8900 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream market demand for silicon metal remains mainly on demand, and downstream users still have a strong purchasing mentality and are cautious in stocking up. Although the market is currently experiencing a period of high demand and downstream production is expected to increase, overall demand support has not yet brought significant improvement to the market situation.
On the supply side: Currently, the overall inventory performance of the silicon metal market is relatively sufficient, and the loose supply side has brought certain supply pressure to the market. The game between supply and demand is gradually becoming prominent, and the transmission performance of supply and demand is also difficult to make significant changes to the market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the market attention is strong. There is no obvious positive signal released in the market. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate weakly. Juhai still needs to pay attention to the resumption of production in some areas and downstream construction, and whether the future market can gradually balance supply and demand.