Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. The average market price of East China during the week to the weekend is about 1740 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with last week, and 18.05% lower than that of last year. The light soda commodity index on September 20 was 89.23, which was the same as yesterday. It was 24.29% lower than the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 41.30% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation, the market was light and stable, and the trading atmosphere was mild. At present, the domestic mainstream light alkali factory price was 1650-1770 yuan/ton; the domestic heavy alkali mainstream terminal price was 1750-1850 yuan/ton. This week, the heavy alkali market did not change much, the manufacturers’shipment situation was relatively smooth, and the market stock was bullish. It is anticipated that manufacturers will implement more end-of-month pricing.

Industry chain: In the downstream area, the price of sodium pyrosulfite has been stable this week, the overall market performance is general, the raw material cost has been weakly adjusted, the upstream and downstream trade entities are cautious in buying and selling, the downstream trade entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite may continue to operate at a low level.

This week, downstream glass continued last week’s trend, rising steadily and moderately. After the G12 summit round table of glass industry, some enterprises in North China and East China began to announce the plan of increase, but the implementation still needs to be implemented. The production and marketing of central and southern China are basically balanced, and the short-term market is mainly stable. From the perspective of sub regions, the situation of north-south differentiation continues. The market as a whole maintained a steady and moderate upward trend.

Industry: This week, the domestic soda market is running smoothly, the output of soda manufacturers has increased, the overall market turnover is mild, more active order delivery is the main, the current delivery pressure is not large, price transaction is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: this week, the domestic light alkali market is running steadily, the supply of enterprises is relatively stable, downstream demand is weak, the enthusiasm of end users is not high, stable price mentality is strong. It is expected that the consolidation of the soda market will be the main trend in the short term, and the demand of the downstream market will be taken into account.

Price trends:

The domestic caustic soda market is still in a strong price-raising atmosphere, and manufacturers in North China continue to raise their ex-factory quotations. As for liquid chlorine, the market price in North China is still relatively high, and the market is mostly stable for the time being. According to the monitoring data of business associations, affected by the low inventory, the caustic soda market rose this week. Business associations monitored the price of Shandong as a whole. So far, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was 782 yuan/ton, up 9.03% in a week.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The market price of caustic soda in Shandong continues to rise. 32% of the turnover of ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is more than 830 yuan/ton. The main reason for this price rise is the impact of low inventory. At present, the National Day is approaching, the transportation policy of liquid chlorine in various regions is still unclear, and manufacturers have more inquiries for stock. At present, part of Shandong geodetic plant restoration, Jinmao Aluminum plant has been shut down for three months, the recovery date is not yet clear; Hebei Jiheng overhaul completed on September 1-7, Jiangsu Anbang and Wenwen plant production reduction.

Industry chain: At present, the market of liquid chlorine is stable. The transaction price in Shandong is about 550 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is about 600 yuan/ton, and in North China is basically stable. The quotation of alumina is stable. At present, the quotation of alumina in Shandong is 2600 yuan/ton, that of alumina in Shanxi and Henan is 2580-2620 yuan/ton, and that of Guizhou is about 600 yuan/ton. 2500 yuan per ton, alumina manufacturers are apparently reluctant to sell, and the supply of alumina will rise in the later period. The pressure of price rise is greater, and short-term shocks are mainly stable.

Business analysts believe that the price of liquor-alkali market in North China continues to rise, the market performance in East China and Henan is relatively good, while the domestic liquor-chlorine market mostly maintains a steady trend. 32% ionic membrane alkali in Shandong area 830-850 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, on September 17, PET water bottle manufacturers quoted 7487.5 yuan/ton, which was 4.17% higher than the 16-day price of 7187.5 yuan/ton, and 33.85% lower than the same period last year.

On September 17, the PET commodity index was 56.30, up 2.26 points from yesterday, down 45.74% from the peak of 103.76 points in the cycle (2011-09-22), and up 17.93% from the low of 47.74 points on January 25, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Cause Analysis

Products: On September 14, two refineries in Saudi Arabia and the United States were attacked by drones, which affected Saudi oil production of 5.7 million barrels per day, and the disruption of Saudi supply caused oil prices to soar. Upstream products PTA and ethylene glycol market boosted, PET market prices have risen. At present, the polyester plant starts to maintain a high level, but the current market demand is limited, supply exceeds demand, driven by strong raw material end, the downstream follow-up is general, market turnover is flat, mostly wait-and-see, just need to purchase. As of September 17, the main quotation range of PET water bottle manufacturers is 7350-7550 yuan/ton, which is generally increased by 250 yuan/ton-300 yuan/ton.

Material aspect: PTA supply is sufficient at present, and there are plans to add new units, the overall start-up is high, inventory is still under pressure. Ethylene glycol plant start-up rate declined, port inventory declined, coupled with the Saudi attack led to the reduction of ethylene glycol production, downstream polyester demand increased steadily, the overall supply and demand pattern of ethylene glycol improved, and domestic ethylene glycol enterprises increased.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices on September 17, 2019. The top three commodities are PET (4.17%), PC (1.93%) and LLDPE (1.79%). There are two kinds of goods falling in the ring-to-ring ratio, PS (-0.84%) and PA66 (-0.42%) respectively. The average daily rise and fall was 0.69%.

3. Future Market Forecast

PET analysts believe that, boosted by crude oil, cost-side support is good, the market of PET is expected to continue to rise in the short term, but cautious terminal demand, a strong downstream wait-and-see atmosphere, and the dynamics of crude oil market and other factors, the rise is not sustainable.

On September 16, WTI crude oil futures rose sharply to $62.90 per barrel, an increase of $8.05. Brent crude oil futures rose sharply to $69.02 per barrel, an increase of $8.8. In particular, Brent crude oil, which opened on September 16, rose rapidly by more than 10%, surging by nearly 19% in the session, its highest level in nearly four months. Why is the international crude oil market so dynamic? During the Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in China, a news about the attack on the facilities of Saudi Arabia’s Amy Oil Company became the biggest news shaking the crude oil market, and also the biggest black swan flying out of the market at present.

On September 14, Beijing time, two Saudi Ami factories were attacked, causing a temporary disruption of Saudi production capacity of about 5.7 million barrels per day, which is about 5% of current global crude oil production. It is rare for so many crude oil production capacity to be interrupted in the short term. It is reported that the oil supply disruption in Saudi Arabia is the most serious in history, surpassing the oil supply disruption in Kuwait and Iraq in August 1990 and the loss of Iranian oil production during the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

In the latest news, Saudi officials are considering postponing the Saudi Arabian Amy IPO and seeking to assess the losses before changing the Saudi Amy IPO plan. Saudi Arabia’s Amy Oil Company has asked local and international contractors to assess the damage to two key oil facilities caused by the attack, which is expected to take at least a few weeks for partial recovery. Oil distribution and U.S. oil are rising again. As of September 16, WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed up 12.52%, the biggest one-day gain in more than 10 years. Brent crude oil futures closed up 12.79%, the biggest one-day gain in nearly 30 years.

How does the future market of crude oil operate?

Some analysts said the surge may be just the beginning, given that Saudi oil supply disruption could last for months. Sandy Fielden, research director at Morningstar, said Brent crude oil could rise to $80 a barrel tomorrow and WTI crude oil to $75 a barrel tomorrow, but that would depend on the latest progress on resumption of production announced by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Situation.

As far as further information is concerned, Yemen’s Hussein armed forces said on the 16th that the oil facilities attacked in Saudi Arabia were still the targets of the armed forces: Yehaia Saliah, spokesman for the Hussein armed forces, issued a statement on the same day saying that “they may be attacked again at any time”, which further exacerbated the worrying atmosphere of the market, in this regard. In the near future, the market is still multi-party.

Business analyst Xue Jinlei believes that, fundamentally, in the short term, the market is disturbed by news and emergency plans are being launched. Saudi officials say that Saudi Arabia and the United States will make up for this loss through oil inventories, which can restore 2 million barrels per day of crude oil production, and the market’s concerns about the supply gap have slowed down. In addition, the U.S. Department of Energy announced the release of 9.98 million barrels of strategic crude oil stocks. Russia’s Ministry of Energy said it had sufficient commercial crude oil reserves to fill the gap caused by Saudi Arabia. Two major oil producers have expressed their views, which further alleviated market concerns. Therefore, the recent oil boom may have cooled down, but there are still uncertainties about oil prices in the future before the full recovery of Saudi Arabia’s Amy plant and the relief of the crisis, and it is not excluded that oil prices will continue to rise due to geographic premiums.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations’list, the domestic adipic acid market last week (9.9-13) was slightly lower than last week. Dealers’ quotations declined mainly. Market prices fell by 100 yuan/ton, the percentage of decline was 0.87%. By the end of the weekend, the quotation is generally between 8200 and 8450 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Last week, adipic acid market slightly declined, the market has been continuing the weak market in August, the market in early September is still no improvement. Last week, some distributors downgraded their quotations by about 100-200 yuan/ton. The market in eastern and southern China has declined, the market atmosphere is slightly cool, distributors actively shipped mainly, market protection. Holding a weak oscillation pattern, the downstream market is now more wait-and-see mentality, trading is slightly deadlocked, and there is room for business to concede profits.

On the supply side, the market supply is slightly oversupply, and many distributors say that the inventory pressure is high, the plant start-up rate is high, the market inventory and manufacturer inventory have risen. Last week, distributors have been picking up goods one after another, so there are also relatively low-cost supply flooding the market, product inventory has a certain bargaining space, market price offer. The price difference between the actual transaction and the reserve price still exists. The quotations of distributors in North China, East China and South China have been adjusted to varying degrees. Most of the districts maintain a stable market.

In terms of demand, downstream demand is relatively weak. The traditional “Golden Nine” market has not arrived as scheduled this year. The downstream start-up rate is still slightly inadequate. The start-up rate is basically around 50%. Adipic acid in the upstream has not been effectively boosted. In terms of cost, the upstream pure benzene market is still weak, and the cost level lacks favorable support. The market has gradually returned to flat, and the market has entered the de-inventory cycle. According to the monitoring of business associations, the reference price of East China market is about 8200-8450 yuan/ton, while that of South China is about 8300-8500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of adipic acid in the chemical branch of the business association believe that the current market is weak, the market shows a certain contradiction between supply and demand. At present, adipic acid is in excess supply and weak demand. Therefore, the Business Association believes that adipic acid market may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the short term.