Aluminum prices rise by 2.09% in December
Aluminum prices rose in December. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 22193.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.09% from the market average price of 21740 yuan/ton on December 1.
In December 2025, aluminum prices continued their upward trend from the end of October and repeatedly hit new highs for the year, while raw material alumina prices fell from their high levels. Currently, the profit per ton of aluminum is in a relatively good position. The strengthening of aluminum prices in December was mainly driven by the combination of four factors: rigid supply constraints, high demand for new energy, bottom rise in costs, and resonance between macro and financial sentiment. In addition, the price resilience during the off-season exceeded expectations. The specific reasons are as follows
1. Supply side: Red line lock-in+limited structural contraction increment
Rigid constraint of production capacity red line: The production capacity ceiling of 45 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in China has not been loosened, and the operating capacity in December was about 44.1 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of over 97%. The newly added replacement projects are only 650000 tons and most of them will be put into operation in 2026, with no short-term increase.
Electricity and weather disturbances: Insufficient hydropower output in Yunnan and Guangxi has led to production cuts for some enterprises, and short-term transportation disruptions in Xinjiang. Coupled with environmental control measures, the operating rate remains high but the marginal increase is limited.
The import window is closed: the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is “strong on the outside and weak on the inside”. The import volume in December fell month on month, and overseas Europe and the United States continued to reduce production due to high energy costs. LME inventories were low, and the global supply situation remained tight.
2. Demand side: New energy high growth supports marginal improvement in traditional industries
The explosion of new energy demand: the lightweighting of new energy vehicles, accelerated construction of ultra-high voltage, and growth in photovoltaic installed capacity have driven a year-on-year increase of 12% -15% in demand for aluminum cables and vehicle aluminum plates, becoming the core engine of demand.
Resilience in traditional fields: The decline in aluminum use in the construction industry has narrowed, automobile exports have maintained high growth, and orders for aluminum rods, aluminum sheets, strips, and foils have rebounded marginally, supporting stable total consumption.
Low inventory strengthening expectation: LME aluminum inventory remains low, and although there is accumulated inventory in the main ports of East China, the growth rate has slowed down, supporting prices under the expectation of destocking.
3. Cost side: resonance between alumina and electricity costs, bottom lifting
Alumina prices have stopped falling and rebounded: After mid December, alumina prices rebounded from 2480 yuan/ton to 2600 yuan/ton due to the increase in bauxite import costs and the decline in operating rates, raising the cost line for electrolytic aluminum.
Rising electricity costs: Thermal power companies have been affected by the rebound in coal prices, resulting in an increase of approximately 300-500 yuan in the cost of electricity per ton. During the dry season, electricity prices for hydropower companies in Yunnan have also increased, providing stronger cost support.
Carbon cost expectation: The implementation of the EU CBAM policy is approaching, pushing up the long-term cost curve of global aluminum companies and providing implicit support for prices.
4. Macroeconomics and funding: Weakening of the US dollar+catalysis of loose liquidity sentiment
Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are heating up: The December interest rate meeting released a signal of a 2026 interest rate cut, and the US dollar index fell to the 101 level, increasing the attractiveness of aluminum prices denominated in US dollars.
Domestic liquidity easing: The central bank lowered reserve requirement ratio in December, releasing 1.2 trillion yuan of funds, and the valuation of cyclical sectors was repaired.

Driven by copper prices: Copper prices have exceeded 100000 yuan/ton, and aluminum prices have followed suit with expectations of copper aluminum price recovery.
5. Inventory and Expectations: Low inventory supports bottom line, accumulation pressure is marginally controllable
The inventory of domestic main ports in East China is about 610000 tons, although it has increased by 9.1% month on month, the accumulation rate of inventory has slowed down due to the expectation of supply contraction. The outbound volume rebounded in late December, and inventory pressure did not significantly suppress prices.
LME inventory is at a low level during the same period, and the overseas low inventory pattern has not changed, supporting the upward trend of global aluminum prices.

Silver skyrockets
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market price on December 29, 2025 was 19186.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 43.03% compared to the average silver market price of 13414 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (December 1); Compared to the beginning of the year (January 1st), the average price of silver in the market was 7450 yuan/kg, an increase of 157.54%.
Futures market: On December 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai Bank (AG2602) fluctuated widely, opening at 18210 yuan/kg, hitting a low of 18027 yuan/kg and then surging to 19998 yuan/kg. It fell sharply in the afternoon, dropping to a low of 17500 yuan/kg, with a intraday amplitude of 13.79%. The closing price was 18887 yuan/kg, with a significant volume of 1.4428 million transactions. In the last hour of trading, Shanghai Silver Red exceeded 10% to Green exceeded 2%. What happened in the market?
What happened in the market when Shanghai’s silver red exceeded 10% to green exceeded 2%?
The one hour “shocking reversal” (from a rise of over 10% to a green excess of 2%) was a “kill more” stampede under the resonance of supply and demand, macro, capital, policies, and external shocks. The core is the combination of high-level profit taking and external market drag, tightening risk control and amplifying liquidity gap fluctuations, limited inventory and warehouse receipt support, reversal of macro and risk aversion sentiment, and resonance between sector sentiment and fund stampede. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. High profit taking+killing and trampling:
Within the year, the increase exceeded 160%, and the high-level carrying capacity of 19998 yuan was insufficient, triggering programmed profit taking and active liquidation of long positions; Highly leveraged accounts (partially ≥ 5 times) are forced to cut their positions due to insufficient margin, resulting in a negative feedback of “selling – price drop – more closing positions”. When liquidity dries up, fluctuations are amplified by 10-15 times.
2. Collapse of international silver price linkage:
London spot silver plummeted from $83.94 to $75.11 within an hour (a drop of over 5%), while COMEX silver also experienced a synchronized drop. The internal market followed the rapid correction of the external market, and the convergence of the internal and external price differences triggered arbitrage selling.
3. Exchange risk control tightening:
The Zhishang Exchange has raised the metal performance guarantee deposit, while the previous exchange had already raised the silver guarantee deposit and limit up/down board, increasing the holding cost and prompting funds to reduce positions and exit, further suppressing buying power.
4. Macro and risk aversion sentiment reversal:
Rumors of progress in the Russia Ukraine peace talks have triggered a decline in safe haven demand, coupled with a short-term rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on the financial properties of silver and causing funds to quickly flow out of precious metals.
5. Limited inventory and warehouse receipt support:
Although inventory is low, the support of warehouse receipts for prices at high levels is covered by panic emotions, and only shows carrying capacity around 17500 yuan.
6. Resonance between sector sentiment and fund stampede:
In the early stage, silver, platinum, and palladium all experienced extreme increases due to the influx of speculative funds and expectations of interest rate cuts. On the afternoon of December 29th, the precious metal sector plummeted to a high level, triggering a “long kill long” trend. Programmed stop loss and forced liquidation quickly spread throughout the precious metal sector, triggering collective selling.

The operating trend of tin prices in 2025
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of 1 # tin ingots in East China was 245960 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 332710 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price has increased by 35.27% throughout the year.
In 2025, tin prices showed an overall N-shaped trend, fluctuating and rising in the first quarter. By March 22, they rose to around 280000 yuan and began a rapid correction. On April 15, they fell below the 260000 yuan mark, rebounded from the bottom, and fluctuated upwards. At the end of the year, they broke through 300000 yuan and continued to rise. The price range for the whole year is between 242000 and 332000, and the market presents a pattern of “supply constrained, demand driven” throughout the year.
1、 Review of Factors Influencing Tin Prices in 2025
1. Supply side: Comprehensive tension and continuous disturbance
Production stoppage in Wa State, Myanmar: The resumption of production has been continuously delayed since the ban on mining in 2023, resulting in a significant decrease in China’s tin ore imports.
Geopolitical conflict: The armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo led to the temporary suspension of production in major mining areas in Africa.
Cost increase: The shortage of mineral resources has caused smelting and processing fees to fall to a nearly six-year low, squeezing profits and leading to some smelters reducing production
2. Demand side: differentiation of new and old driving forces
Traditional demand is weak: orders in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and home appliances are light, with rigid procurement being the main focus.
Emerging demand provides long-term story: global semiconductor sales growth, high growth rate of AI servers, and the development of photovoltaics and new energy vehicles provide long-term support for tin demand
3. Inventory and Macro: Low Inventory and Macro Resonance
Global inventory is low: The inventory levels of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME are at historically low levels, exacerbating supply vulnerability.
Macro sentiment boost: By the end of November 2025, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates resonated with concerns about the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, driving Shanghai tin prices to a three-and-a-half-year high
2、 Forecast of Tin Price Trend in 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, the market consensus is that the tight supply situation will ease to some extent, but the supply-demand gap and low inventory will still support prices at historical highs, and the overall trend is expected to be “high volatility”.
2026 Supply Recovery Forecast
1. Global tin mine capacity increase and expansion after 2026
It is expected that the total new and expanded production capacity of global tin mines will increase by about 24000 tons by 2026. The overseas increment mainly comes from the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with an estimated output of 16500 tons. Other new and expanded production capacity is expected to increase by 4400 tons; The production capacity of domestic Yinman Mining has climbed, and the Villasto project, expected to start production in August, is expected to increase by a total of 3000 tons. Overall, the global increase in tin ore production is expected to be around 24000 tons by 2026, with the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar being the main source of this increase.
2. The resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate
According to public reports, the southwest monsoon will exit Myanmar in mid October 2025, marking the end of the rainy season and the arrival of early winter. From the significant increase in customs declaration data at Menglian Port in November, it can be seen that the previous rainy season and equipment issues have been basically resolved, and the resumption of production is expected to accelerate. It is expected to increase production by 15000 metal tons year-on-year in 2026.
3. Supply situation of mining terminals in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria
2026 demand resilience

Support: The high-end development of semiconductors with AI computing power as the core and the green transformation of energy (photovoltaics, new energy vehicles) are clear medium – and long-term demand growth points. Tin demand is expected to continue to rise.
Pressure: In the first quarter of 2026, the traditional consumer sector will enter the off-season. Global smartphone shipments may slightly decrease, photovoltaic module production may decrease month on month, and high tin prices have also suppressed downstream willingness to replenish inventory.
Inventory and cost constitute bottom support: Global explicit inventory is expected to remain low. At the same time, the declining grade of global tin ore resources and rising exploration costs have provided a solid bottom for tin prices from the long-term cost perspective.
Overall, the tin price in 2026 will be in a game between “supply recovery” and “demand resilience/disturbance risk”. By 2026, the global tin market supply and demand pattern may show a gap, and the core focus of the current market is on the potential disruptive factors of overseas mining supply and the verification of actual demand. In this context, the expected operating range of the Shanghai Tin Index is roughly between 260000 yuan/ton and 390000 yuan/ton.

In the past year of 2025, due to factors such as differences in foreign trade policies and repeated geopolitical rifts, the market for bulk plastics remained complex and volatile. At the same time, China’s plastic industry is in a phase of expansion cycle change. Against the backdrop of a long-term slowdown in global economic growth, can the domestic general plastics industry make further progress and stabilize the market trend. This forecast report will take you ahead of the general plastics industry in China in 2026.
General plastic products mainly include polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polystyrene (PS), and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene copolymer resin (ABS). The core advantage of its “universal” name lies in its wide application, low price, and large output. Whether as a necessity for daily life, in industrial production, or as a financial product, it holds an irreplaceable and important position, hence it is also known as a bulk plastic variety.
Domestic pattern
A major producer and consumer country
The plastic market in our country has a huge consumer demand. Since the beginning of the new century, the domestic plastic industry has achieved leapfrog development, with significant progress in product types and output. Especially in the past five years, according to statistics, the total production of primary form plastics in China exceeded 1 trillion tons for the first time in 2020. From 2020 to 2024, the average annual production growth rate will remain above 5.14%, maintaining its position as one of the world’s major plastic production bases with a global share of about one-third. And the just passed 2025 annual production growth has reached a breakthrough of over 11%, surpassing the forecast value at the beginning of the year.
Import dependence continues to decline
With the increase of production capacity and output in our country, the domestic demand gap for plastics is gradually being met, and the degree of dependence on imports is also decreasing year by year. In the first 11 months of 2025, the cumulative import volume of primary form plastics in China was 24.281 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% and reaching a new high. The cumulative import amount was 36.1623 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. The accelerated release of new production capacity to replace traditional imports, coupled with tariff policies and trade frictions forcing a contraction in the proportion of external purchases, has made it a foregone conclusion that China’s primary form plastic imports have maintained negative growth for five consecutive years. If this negative growth trend is estimated, the import volume of primary form plastics in China for the whole year of 2026 may not exceed 25.3588 million tons. However, in imported categories, the domestic substitution rate for basic plastic categories is high, while the domestic substitution rate for high-end categories is relatively low.
Downstream one super many strong
Distribution of downstream consumption of general plastics

From the perspective of domestic downstream consumption structure, in the first three quarters of 2025, China’s plastic processing enterprises produced a total of 59.373 million tons of plastic products. Among them, the film production reached 13.935 million tons, and the proportion of consumption decreased by 0.5% to 23.5% year-on-year; Next is 3.869 million tons of daily plastic products, with a decrease in proportion of 0.5% to 6.5%; The remaining nearly 70% of the plastic products market is occupied by synthetic leather, plastic weaving, building materials, and other plastic products. It is worth mentioning that the sudden rise in demand in the fields of new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, and smart homes has driven the incremental market for specialized materials. The overall distribution of consumption shows a pattern of one super strong and many strong, and industry consumption is generally healthy and stable. The fundamentals of domestic demand have shown a certain ballast effect.
Challenges and Opportunities
Potential for Demand Growth and Rapid Industry Expansion
Although the industry has been disturbed by various major factors in recent years, the downstream demand for general plastics is still moving forward with resilience amidst fluctuations. According to relevant estimates, the apparent consumption growth rate of the plastic industry in China is expected to be around 6% by 2025. The steady growth of traditional plastic product consumption in China and the opening up of the emerging plastic industry track will bring profound growth potential to the domestic general plastic industry.
Production rate of general plastics in China in the past two years
At the same time, China’s general plastic production capacity is still in a state of rapid expansion. Currently, China has entered the second expansion cycle of the plastic industry from 2026 to 2029. According to the summary of relevant investment and construction plans, except for PVC, the expansion rate of PP, PS, and ABS production in 2026 will be over 10%, and PE will reach as high as 27.31%. It is expected that by the end of the year, the newly added production capacity of various varieties will mostly be lower than the full year production capacity of 2025, indicating that the expansion of China’s plastic industry is undergoing a shift from a “big and fast” pattern to a “stable growth” pattern.
Although the pace of expansion has relatively slowed down, judging from the performance of the plastic market in recent years, the growth rate of demand for general plastics in the domestic market does not match the production capacity. The imbalance between domestic supply and demand is gradually becoming prominent, and China’s plastic market is entering a period of deepening overcapacity. The contradiction between supply and demand mismatch poses a long-term risk. It can be seen that the opportunities and challenges in terms of supply and demand in the future plastic market lie between the release of demand potential and the struggle for supply of goods, and it is expected that market competition will become increasingly fierce.

Expansion of Export Markets and Fluctuations in the Foreign Trade Environment
With the increase of domestic plastic foreign trade windows, more and more plastic companies are choosing to further explore emerging overseas markets. According to statistics, the export value of plastic products in China has reached 78.021 billion US dollars in the first three quarters of 2024 alone, and the export value for the whole year of 2023 is 100.809 billion US dollars, which has almost tripled compared to ten years ago, and has already become one of the major plastic exporting countries. This change confirms the leapfrog improvement of domestic plastics in cost control, category coverage, and supply chain matching. This wave of export expansion not only stems from the digestion of excess domestic production capacity overseas, but also benefits from the upgrading of the “the Belt and Road” infrastructure. At the same time, it superimposes the multiple dividends of the transfer of Southeast Asia’s home appliance and automobile industry chain and the reduction of shipping costs, which has significantly enhanced China’s regional competitiveness. Expanding export markets and hitchhiking on the growth of foreign economies is undoubtedly an emerging blue ocean field for China’s plastic enterprises.
The factors causing the year-on-year decline in China’s plastic product exports in 2025 are not only objective factors such as reduced external demand, but also artificial factors such as the rise of trade protectionism. Although the suspension of tariffs by China and the United States will be extended for one year in the second half of 2025, China’s actions on exports to the United States can continue to increase at the current high tariff level of nearly 30-40%. Based on data from the first 11 months alone, exports of plastic products to the United States decreased by 18.3% year-on-year. In addition, tariff barriers such as the European “carbon surcharge” in the name of environmental protection and trade protection have not weakened their impact on plastic foreign trade. The uncertainty of tariff policies is expected to persist for a long time. Plastic colleagues need to overcome difficulties and provide support for domestic plastics going global.
Industrial upgrading and remote cost aspect
Since 2016, China’s general plastics industry has entered a new stage of high-quality development. Plastic polymerization enterprises are paying more attention to extending into the upstream raw material field and expanding into the downstream product processing field, and the process of industrial integration is constantly accelerating. Currently, the proportion of integrated production of major plastic varieties in China has reached a huge half, and the comprehensive quality of domestic plastic enterprises has been improving year by year. This industrial integration model has advantages such as reducing production costs and strong risk resistance of enterprises.
Oil and natural gas are important raw materials and energy sources for the general plastics industry. Industrial integration has brought about cost reduction and efficiency improvement, while also deeply linking plastics with the upstream market. However, China is constrained by its resource endowment of poor oil and gas, and the cost pressure of the general plastics industry largely comes from imported oil and gas. In recent years, due to the disturbance of international geopolitical conflicts, market concerns have been fluctuating, and energy prices have fluctuated dramatically. Against the backdrop of the fluctuating geopolitical disputes between the Middle East and Europe, the domestic production and sales of bulk plastics in 2026 have become even more uncertain.

Outlook and Prediction
price forecast
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the end of 2025, the prices of the five major general plastics in China have all declined, with significant price drops compared to the beginning of the year. The current General Plastics Index is 631 points, falling below the five-year low of 653 points on April 6, 2020. Although the deep cultivation of traditional plastic product consumption is an important growth point for domestic general plastics, the performance of plastic price trends in 2025 also reflects the insufficient demand elasticity in traditional fields. At the same time, the supply environment for domestic large base production capacity is still in its infancy, and the lag in consumption growth is likely to lead to a temporary bottoming out of unit prices. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no significant recovery in the market in 2026, and the price position will continue to be relatively low.
Increasing production without increasing profits
Another situation brought about by the temporary supply-demand contradiction is that the industry increases production without increasing profits. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative operating revenue of large-scale enterprises in the plastic products industry in China increased by 1.1% year-on-year, while the total profit decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. It is worth noting that in the first three quarters, the inventory of enterprises above designated size increased by 3.2% year-on-year, and the effective demand in the market is still insufficient. Taking ABS as an example, looking back at around 2020, ABS products seemed to have a unique advantage, with a period of glory and prosperity, and the polymerization plant was making money like a “lying win”. Until the past three years, the profit situation has sharply declined. The unit price profit is struggling to support the cost lines of 241 yuan and -211 yuan.
The pressure of plastic companies’ costs is urgently seeking to be transferred, and there is an increase in staggered production, production cuts, and shutdowns in the industry, with similar situations being more evident in the PS industry. According to statistics, the apparent consumption of PS in China is about 4.7 million tons, with an annual growth rate of only 2.2%, almost stagnant. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has continued to decline from nearly 78% in 2020 to below 60% currently, which is out of place compared to the rapid capacity expansion. Although production can be tightened through industry self-regulation, other chain reactions such as increased losses, rising maintenance costs, and decreased profitability cannot be avoided. Although the domestic “anti involution” policy planned to phase out equipment that is over 20 years old in the third quarter of last year, its proportion is relatively small, and its impact is difficult to significantly improve the supply-demand structure in 2026.
Outlook for Industry Structure Adjustment
From the perspective of category added value, there is a significant lack of high-end ecology in China’s general plastics industry at present. At present, some domestic plastic companies have certain production technology and scale of modified plastics, but the proportion of plastic modification applications in China is only about a quarter, and far below the global plastic modification rate of 50%. At the same time, we also see that by 2025, the demand for lightweight new energy vehicles will double the amount of modified plastics used per vehicle; The iteration of consumer electronics has spurred the demand for ultra-thin and high toughness modified plastics; In addition, specialized plastics such as antibacterial and anti fingerprint materials have opened up new incremental markets. In the face of changing demand, there is enormous potential for the modification market in China’s plastic industry in the future. With the gradual completion of the large-scale production capacity construction of basic categories in domestic plastic enterprises, the focus of industry transformation and development will inevitably shift to the deep cultivation of high value-added projects such as modified plastic products.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 6645 yuan/ton on December 16th, and 6430 yuan/ton on December 23rd, a decrease of 3.24%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on December 16th was 8633 yuan/ton, and on December 23rd it was 8433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7130 yuan/ton on December 16th and 6900 yuan/ton on December 23rd, a decrease of 3.23%.
Recently, the center of gravity of polyethylene has continued to shift downwards. Manufacturers’ willingness to ship has increased, with a focus on active pre-sales and maintaining a low inventory mentality. Affected by profit pressure, the upstream operating rate has been adjusted. The demand side is in the off-season, the demand for greenhouse film is gradually coming to an end, the demand for plastic film remains sluggish, the demand for packaging film is flat, the operating rate of the pipe industry is declining, downstream demand is weak, and the growth of new orders is weak, lacking favorable support. As the end of the month approaches, the polyethylene market continues its pace of destocking, with producers and traders actively offering discounts and continuously lowering prices. The supply side continues to release new production capacity, while the demand side is in the off-season. Recently, due to geopolitical uncertainty, crude oil prices have rebounded, which has boosted the cost of polyethylene. However, the supply and demand side is weak, and it is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate weakly.