1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 144033.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 13.84%.
In the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 6 times and risen 6 times, with a slight decline in nickel prices recently.
LME nickel inventory
Macroscopically, US President Trump arrived in Beijing by special plane and began his visit to China, followed by discussions on tariffs and other related matters; The US PPI surged 1.4% month on month in April, after the March data was also revised upwards to a growth rate of 0.7%.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in April was 35250 tons, a decrease of 5.59% month on month and 3.29% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for May is 33280 tons, a decrease of 5.59% month on month and 7.54% year-on-year
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The consumption of alloys is gradually recovering, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. The weak performance of stainless steel highlights the mentality of steel mills to suppress raw material prices; The high price of MHP provides support for the cost of nickel sulfate, but there is no significant increase in downstream ternary precursor orders, with nickel sulfate prices mainly fluctuating.
In summary, the supply pressure of refined nickel on the real end is not reduced, and the market resources are sufficient. However, due to the constraints of high raw material prices, the refined production schedule in May is expected to slightly decline. The intermediate products of nickel sulfate raw materials have been partially reduced in production, but downstream demand for ternary materials has fallen significantly. Due to the impact of policies and structural crowding out of iron and lithium, there has been no significant increase in orders from ternary precursor and positive electrode material enterprises, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. Overall, macro and Indonesian policies continue to be subject to repeated disturbances, with cost bottoms rising under the support of raw materials. Fundamental constraints are mainly due to the current supply pressure of refined nickel combined with insufficient inventory digestion. It is expected that nickel prices will mainly remain in a range of fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of heavy rare earths in the domestic market has declined since May. The prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal have all declined. As of the 14th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.35 million yuan/ton, with a half month price decline of 4.26%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.33 million yuan/ton, with a half month price decline of 3.27%; The price of dysprosium metal is 1.9 million yuan/ton, with a half month price decline of 1.04%.
Since May, the price trend of heavy rare earths in the market has declined. Due to weak terminal demand, market activity has gradually cooled down, and trading remains cautious. The demand for heavy rare earths in the market continues to be poor, and the inventory of dysprosium oxide is relatively high, resulting in most companies being cautious in their quotations. There are few low-priced sales, and the overall market sentiment is strong.
Downstream demand is extremely cautious in purchasing during the off-season
As the most important downstream, permanent magnet materials are facing a shortage of orders from magnetic material companies during the traditional off-season of new energy vehicles and wind power, resulting in a reduced operating rate of 60% -65%. Resulting in terminal price suppression, magnetic material factories purchase on demand, zero inventory, refuse high prices, and significantly reduce the demand for heavy rare earths. In addition, some mid to low end magnetic materials have reduced the addition of dysprosium and terbium, further suppressing demand and causing a decline in the market trend of heavy rare earths.
Restricted circulation+withdrawal of funds, sluggish market trading
The invoicing quota for rare earth trade is limited, resulting in increased transaction costs and decreased circulation efficiency. There is difficulty in obtaining goods and no market for valuable ones. Traders and magnetic material factories are watching from both sides, with few inquiries and weak transactions, making prices easy to fall but difficult to rise.
Market forecast: The decline in the heavy rare earth market in May is a short-term correction trend, driven by profit taking, off-season demand, liquidity and capital pressure, and expected cooling; In the medium to long term, rigid supply and new energy demand support the upward shift of the price center, and there is still room for rebound after a pullback.

According to the Business Society Spot News, in the first half of May, the formaldehyde market continued the weak adjustment trend of the second half of April, showing a pattern of “weak cost support, weak demand, and downward price fluctuations”. Short term supply and demand are difficult to change, and the price center continues to decline, stabilizing and rebounding after a slight bottoming out in the middle and late of the month. As of May 13th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1357 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07% from the beginning of the month and at a mid to high level for the year.
Driving factor analysis
1. Cost side: Weakening of methanol, profit compression forcing concessions
The price of raw material methanol first rose and then fell in the first half of May, with an overall decline of about 4.6%, which was significantly greater than that of formaldehyde, and the cost support continued to weaken.
The decline in methanol prices has significantly compressed the profit margins of formaldehyde enterprises, and the industry’s willingness to proactively offer discounts for shipments has increased, further amplifying the downward pressure on prices.
Short term methanol lacks significant rebound momentum, and the weak cost support pattern is difficult to change, making it difficult to form an effective bottom line for formaldehyde prices.
2. Demand side: The terminal is weak, and there is little incremental demand driven by essential needs
The operating rate of the downstream artificial board industry is less than 50%, and the sluggish real estate industry continues to drag down terminal orders. The procurement of supporting industries such as adhesives and coatings is mainly for essential needs, and the market’s willingness to replenish inventory is weak, lacking the demand increment brought by centralized stocking.
The traditional off-season effect combined with the approaching high temperature weather has led downstream enterprises to be cautious about future expectations and adopt a strategy of “buy as you go”, resulting in light market trading and difficulty in driving prices.
3. Supply side: Low operating levels+inventory accumulation, difficult to change loose pattern
The industry’s operating rate remains low, and the contraction effect of some equipment maintenance on supply is offset by the accumulation of enterprise inventory. The overall market supply is still relatively loose.
Market forecast:
Short term weakness bottoming out, the downward momentum gradually diminishing. The current bearish trend of “negative expansion” will continue, but as prices approach the medium to long-term cost line, the downward momentum will gradually weaken, and the overall pattern will be “weak bottoming out and low-level oscillation”.

Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has strengthened. As of May 12th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 199000 yuan/ton, up 32.67% month on month and 198% year-on-year. Futures prices have simultaneously strengthened, with the LC2609 contract, the main force of lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, successfully breaking through the 200000 yuan/ton mark and setting a new high in recent times.
Rapid price increase driven by mismatch between supply and demand
The price of lithium carbonate has officially opened an upward channel since early April. This rise is not driven by short-term market sentiment, but is due to the dual support of fundamental supply and demand and market expectations. The mismatch between downstream demand recovery and upstream supply constraints is the core logic of this round of price strength.
Supply side: Currently, the available supply of lithium mines is tight, and there are frequent disturbances in overseas mining. Some lithium mica mines in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, China are in the stage of certificate renewal, and mining activities may temporarily stagnate. The market is concerned that the tight situation in the mining side will be transmitted to the lithium salt sector.
On the demand side: Although the sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of this year did not meet expectations, the actual demand for power batteries still achieved year-on-year growth thanks to the increase in the charging capacity of individual vehicles; Combined with the stimulation of high oil prices, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China significantly recovered in April. At the same time, the energy storage shipments in the first four months exceeded market expectations, jointly driving the impressive production performance of downstream enterprises in May and June, and the overall demand side showed a positive trend.
Lithium prices are subject to short-term variables and medium – to long-term risks
In the short term, if Zimbabwe’s lithium mines can arrive at the port smoothly before the end of June and the resumption procedures for Jiangxi’s mica mines proceed smoothly, it is expected to correct the current overly optimistic sentiment in the market and alleviate the tight supply situation.
In the long run, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increases, the demand share of the energy storage market gradually increases, and the global energy storage market presents a clear pattern of “China leading, the United States and Europe following, and emerging markets filling the gap”. But the current high price of lithium, a raw material for energy storage, will to some extent lead to a decrease in energy storage demand, thereby causing a price collapse. At present, this negative feedback has not yet occurred, but if lithium prices remain above 200000 yuan for a long time, energy storage demand will eventually shrink, but this process may take 1-2 quarters to fully reflect. If the price of lithium continues to remain above 200000 yuan, the advantages of sodium batteries will gradually become prominent, accelerating the industrialization process of low-priced sodium batteries and compressing the market share of lithium batteries.
According to the Business Society Spot News, the current 10 day moving average (red) of battery grade lithium carbonate prices is above the 20 day moving average (blue), and the spread has widened, indicating an accelerated upward trend and still having upward momentum. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

price trend
In early May, the domestic PC market was in a state of consolidation and operation, with some spot prices of certain brands fluctuating. As of May 10th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16233.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In early May, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises still decreased. The entire line of Cangzhou Dahua in the interval will be shut down for maintenance, with an industry load of around 74%. There are still maintenance plans in the future, and the expected increase in production losses. At present, the average weekly output is over 60000 tons, and overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market continued to consolidate at a low level at the end of last month in May. Due to fluctuations in international crude oil prices and the decline in phenol prices, the center of gravity of domestic bisphenol A prices has been dragged. At the same time, the current supply of bisphenol A has limited changes while demand remains weak. Merchants are actively shipping and tend to sell at discounted prices. The overall support for PC cost value has weakened.
On the demand side: Due to the lack of improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises, the transmission of high PC spot prices is hindered. The load position of downstream factories of PC remains relatively low. Although the current PC price has fallen from a high level, it is still within the three-year high range. The buyer is cautious in stocking up and has a poor willingness to build a warehouse. Pre holiday inventory still needs to be digested, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, resulting in slow liquidity of goods sources. The merchant’s mentality is not strong, and their offers are made according to the market, resulting in an increase in profit giving and order taking operations. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In early May, the domestic PC market was consolidating at a high level. The price consolidation of upstream bisphenol A is weak, and the cost value provides moderate support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has slightly decreased, although there are still expectations of a decline, the supply side benefits are limited. On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, and buyers have a cautious mentality, taking whatever they need. Trading is mostly small orders. It is expected that the PC market will continue to be suppressed by fluctuations in cost values in the short term, and there may still be room for downward adjustment.