In 2025, the natural rubber market will have abundant supply, stable and limited demand, and fluctuating prices
In 2025, the overall trend of natural rubber will show a “V-shaped” pattern of first rising, then falling sharply, and then bottoming out and rebounding. The price fluctuation throughout the year will be significant, operating in the range of 13550-17400 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of the year, from January to February, the peak was reached due to seasonal tight supply, demand activation, and strong prices. At the beginning of the year, the price started at about 16890 yuan/ton and quickly surged to the highest price of 17400 yuan/ton within the year.
From March to May, a downward trend began. Since March, factors such as strong production in major production areas, disturbance of macro trade war news, and high inventory have led to a significant decline in the price of Tianjian. At the end of May, it reached the lowest price of 13550 yuan/ton for the year, a decrease of 22.31% from the highest point of the year, making it the stage with the deepest decline for the whole year.
Affected by factors such as weather and geopolitical disturbances, domestic shutdowns, and downstream stocking from June to the end of the year, natural rubber prices gradually rebounded after hitting bottom. Although there was a slight correction during this period, the overall trend showed a fluctuating upward trend. At the end of the year, the price rebounded to around 15000 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 13.80% from the low point of the year, but still far below the price at the beginning of the year.
Global natural rubber supply growth is weak in 2025, and China’s natural rubber supply is still mainly imported
In 2025, the global market supply of natural rubber will experience sluggish growth and structural changes. According to the latest report from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber production is expected to reach 14.892 million tons in 2025, with a slight increase of only 0.5% year-on-year. Traditional main players (Southeast Asia) are generally under pressure: traditional countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia are expected to experience a decline in yield due to factors such as aging trees and switching to other crops. Thailand and China support growth: Thailand, the world’s largest producer, is expected to increase production by 1.2%; China’s domestic production is expected to increase by 6%. The rapid rise of emerging production areas (Africa): African production areas represented by Cote d’Ivoire are growing rapidly and are becoming an important supply supplement. In the long run, the global rubber tree cutting area has shown negative growth for the first time, and the aging trend of tree age structure is obvious (the proportion of high-yielding trees continues to decline), which means that the potential for increased production in the next few years is very limited.
In 2025, domestic natural rubber will still be mainly driven by imports, and the trend of diversified import sources is evident. China’s dependence on foreign natural rubber is over 80%, and the abundant domestic supply is mainly due to the significant increase in import volume. From January to November 2025, China’s cumulative imports of natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, cigarette adhesive sheet, primary shape, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) reached 5.8716 million tons, an increase of 16.98% compared to the same period in 2024. Thailand is the largest source of imports, while African regions such as Cote d’Ivoire have seen a significant increase in imports, becoming an important emerging source.
In 2025, the demand for natural rubber in China will mainly be driven by the domestic automobile market and tire exports

On the one hand, the domestic automobile market will experience steady growth in 2025. Domestic automobile production and sales have maintained growth, driving the demand for tire matching. Passenger car sales increased by 13.6% year-on-year in the first 8 months. And the outbreak of new energy vehicles: The sales of new energy vehicles are growing rapidly, and the demand for high-end natural rubber in their high-performance tires is increasing by more than 20%, becoming an important structural growth point. In addition, the “trade in” policy and the rural promotion of new energy vehicles have continued to boost related demand.
On the other hand, domestic tire exports will maintain growth in 2025. From January to November 2025, China’s cumulative export of rubber tires reached 8.83 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, the export volume of new inflatable rubber tires reached 8.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. In 2025, tire exports maintained total growth by exploring new markets such as the Middle East and Africa under the pressure of traditional European and American markets. Overall, in 2025, exports to the European Union were strong in the early stage but later declined, while exports to the United States significantly shrank. Strong demand from regions such as the Middle East and Africa has become a new growth point.
Overall, in 2025, domestic natural rubber demand will demonstrate resilience supported by strong exports and robust domestic demand, but the growth potential will be suppressed by overseas trade barriers and high domestic inventories.
Outlook for the Natural Rubber Market in 2026
The future supply of Tianjiao will face a long-term contraction trend, and short-term supply changes will be affected by multiple factors with certain elasticity
Due to factors such as the proportion of rubber trees over 30 years old in some Southeast Asian countries exceeding 40% and the continuous decline in the proportion of high-yield trees, the future global rubber producing countries (especially Southeast Asia) will face long-term structural problems such as declining or even negative growth in cutting area and aging of rubber trees. This determines that the growth potential of global natural rubber supply in 2026 is extremely limited, and global supply will show a stable and shrinking trend. However, the increase in production in emerging production areas (such as Ivory Coast in Africa), weather conditions in major production areas, and geopolitical situations (such as the Thai Cambodian border) will affect the pace of short-term supply release.
Natural rubber domestic demand will maintain steady growth in 2026
In 2026, the demand for natural rubber in China will still be dominated by tires. Firstly, the domestic promotion fee policy “Notice on the Implementation of Large scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade in Policy by 2026″ has been released, with subsidies concentrated in several areas such as automobiles, home appliances, digital and intelligent products. Automobile consumption has received certain encouragement, and secondly, new energy vehicles continue to maintain high-speed growth. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said to Hu Shi that he predicts the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in China for the whole year of 2026 to be around 10%, or 14.137 million units (with an expected sales volume of 12.852 million units in 2025).
The steady growth of automobiles has driven a steady increase in domestic demand for tires. According to industry forecasts, it is expected that the production of all steel tires will increase by 3-4% and the production of semi steel tires will increase by 5-6% in 2026. All steel tires are mainly used to support commercial vehicles and construction machinery, supported by infrastructure investment and logistics transportation demand; Half steel tires are mainly used in passenger cars, benefiting from consumer upgrades and the development of new energy vehicles.

Overall, the demand for natural rubber in China will continue to steadily increase in 2026 under the guidance of automotive tires.
In 2026, the natural rubber market will still be affected by seasonal patterns, substitutability, and policy factors. From a historical price perspective, from the fourth quarter of each year to the Spring Festival of the following year, driven by reduced supply and pre holiday stocking, rubber prices usually have a rebound trend. In addition, if synthetic rubber maintains a low price due to the weakening of raw material (butadiene) costs, it will create substitution pressure on the price of natural rubber. Finally, policies such as the EU’s’ No Deforestation ‘Regulation (EUDR) may push up production costs in the long run.
Overall, the natural rubber market in 2026 is a pattern of “bottom and top”. The ‘bottom’ comes from the long-term rigid contraction of the supply side, which determines that the price center of gravity is difficult to fall deeply. The ‘top’ is subject to uncertainty on the demand side (especially in overseas markets) and pressure from the substitution of synthetic rubber. From a price perspective, it is expected that the price of natural rubber will fluctuate between 14000-18000 yuan/ton in 2026.

Silver prices experience a significant correction
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market price on the afternoon of December 31, 2025 was 17004 yuan/kg, a decrease of 12.4% from the peak spot price of 19414 yuan/kg this month.
Futures market: On December 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai Bank (AG2602) continued to fluctuate widely but showed an extreme trend of “rising and then falling unilaterally”. The intraday fluctuations were more dominated by bears, as follows:
Opened at 18508 yuan/kg, briefly surged to a intraday high of 18877 yuan/kg after opening; Subsequently, due to the resonance of factors such as the sharp decline in the external market, the withdrawal of funds before the holiday, and the increase in margin, the price unilaterally declined and accelerated its plunge in the afternoon, reaching a low of 16900 yuan/kg; The final closing price was 17103 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1037 yuan or 4.23% from the previous trading day’s settlement price of 17859 yuan/kg, with a intraday fluctuation of 11.21%; The trading volume was 735900 lots, a significant decrease from 1442800 lots on the 29th, with a holding volume of 146800 lots, indicating a significant risk aversion and exit feature of funds.
Silver has repeatedly hit new highs before experiencing a significant pullback, which is the result of regulatory deleveraging, capital concentration for profit taking, holiday liquidity depletion, and technical overbought resonance. as follows:
Tightening regulatory policies and pressure on leveraged funds: On December 29th, CME raised silver margin by about 13.6% again (the third cumulative increase of over 25% within the year). In the previous period, the exchange simultaneously raised margin and limit up and limit down. High leverage long positions were forced to close due to pressure to replenish positions, triggering a “long kill long” chain of sell offs. Programmed stop loss orders emerged during the day.
At the end of the year, funds were concentrated for profit taking: silver increased by over 180% during the year, and institutions and funds faced year-end settlement and tax selling pressure, locking in profits in a concentrated manner; Approaching the New Year holiday, funds are hedging and leaving, and the fragile position structure is causing a stampede.
The drying up of holiday liquidity amplifies volatility: During the Christmas New Year holiday, market liquidity decreased by about 40% compared to normal days. Market makers had low willingness to quote, and the bid ask spread widened. A small number of large orders could trigger severe price fluctuations, exacerbating the extent of the correction.
Technical oversold repair: Silver RSI has been above 85 for several consecutive days, the gold to silver ratio has fallen to a nearly five-year low, and prices are out of touch with industrial demand such as photovoltaics and electronics. Technical correction pressure has accumulated, triggering large-scale stop loss and short covering.
Marginal cooling of geographical and macro expectations: rumors of peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict heated up, and short-term risk aversion demand fell back; At the same time, the market’s expectation of a Fed rate cut has been overdrawn in advance, lacking new catalysts to push prices further upward.

Aluminum prices rise by 2.09% in December
Aluminum prices rose in December. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 22193.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.09% from the market average price of 21740 yuan/ton on December 1.
In December 2025, aluminum prices continued their upward trend from the end of October and repeatedly hit new highs for the year, while raw material alumina prices fell from their high levels. Currently, the profit per ton of aluminum is in a relatively good position. The strengthening of aluminum prices in December was mainly driven by the combination of four factors: rigid supply constraints, high demand for new energy, bottom rise in costs, and resonance between macro and financial sentiment. In addition, the price resilience during the off-season exceeded expectations. The specific reasons are as follows
1. Supply side: Red line lock-in+limited structural contraction increment
Rigid constraint of production capacity red line: The production capacity ceiling of 45 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in China has not been loosened, and the operating capacity in December was about 44.1 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of over 97%. The newly added replacement projects are only 650000 tons and most of them will be put into operation in 2026, with no short-term increase.
Electricity and weather disturbances: Insufficient hydropower output in Yunnan and Guangxi has led to production cuts for some enterprises, and short-term transportation disruptions in Xinjiang. Coupled with environmental control measures, the operating rate remains high but the marginal increase is limited.
The import window is closed: the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is “strong on the outside and weak on the inside”. The import volume in December fell month on month, and overseas Europe and the United States continued to reduce production due to high energy costs. LME inventories were low, and the global supply situation remained tight.
2. Demand side: New energy high growth supports marginal improvement in traditional industries
The explosion of new energy demand: the lightweighting of new energy vehicles, accelerated construction of ultra-high voltage, and growth in photovoltaic installed capacity have driven a year-on-year increase of 12% -15% in demand for aluminum cables and vehicle aluminum plates, becoming the core engine of demand.
Resilience in traditional fields: The decline in aluminum use in the construction industry has narrowed, automobile exports have maintained high growth, and orders for aluminum rods, aluminum sheets, strips, and foils have rebounded marginally, supporting stable total consumption.
Low inventory strengthening expectation: LME aluminum inventory remains low, and although there is accumulated inventory in the main ports of East China, the growth rate has slowed down, supporting prices under the expectation of destocking.
3. Cost side: resonance between alumina and electricity costs, bottom lifting
Alumina prices have stopped falling and rebounded: After mid December, alumina prices rebounded from 2480 yuan/ton to 2600 yuan/ton due to the increase in bauxite import costs and the decline in operating rates, raising the cost line for electrolytic aluminum.
Rising electricity costs: Thermal power companies have been affected by the rebound in coal prices, resulting in an increase of approximately 300-500 yuan in the cost of electricity per ton. During the dry season, electricity prices for hydropower companies in Yunnan have also increased, providing stronger cost support.
Carbon cost expectation: The implementation of the EU CBAM policy is approaching, pushing up the long-term cost curve of global aluminum companies and providing implicit support for prices.
4. Macroeconomics and funding: Weakening of the US dollar+catalysis of loose liquidity sentiment
Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are heating up: The December interest rate meeting released a signal of a 2026 interest rate cut, and the US dollar index fell to the 101 level, increasing the attractiveness of aluminum prices denominated in US dollars.
Domestic liquidity easing: The central bank lowered reserve requirement ratio in December, releasing 1.2 trillion yuan of funds, and the valuation of cyclical sectors was repaired.

Driven by copper prices: Copper prices have exceeded 100000 yuan/ton, and aluminum prices have followed suit with expectations of copper aluminum price recovery.
5. Inventory and Expectations: Low inventory supports bottom line, accumulation pressure is marginally controllable
The inventory of domestic main ports in East China is about 610000 tons, although it has increased by 9.1% month on month, the accumulation rate of inventory has slowed down due to the expectation of supply contraction. The outbound volume rebounded in late December, and inventory pressure did not significantly suppress prices.
LME inventory is at a low level during the same period, and the overseas low inventory pattern has not changed, supporting the upward trend of global aluminum prices.

Silver skyrockets
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market price on December 29, 2025 was 19186.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 43.03% compared to the average silver market price of 13414 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (December 1); Compared to the beginning of the year (January 1st), the average price of silver in the market was 7450 yuan/kg, an increase of 157.54%.
Futures market: On December 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai Bank (AG2602) fluctuated widely, opening at 18210 yuan/kg, hitting a low of 18027 yuan/kg and then surging to 19998 yuan/kg. It fell sharply in the afternoon, dropping to a low of 17500 yuan/kg, with a intraday amplitude of 13.79%. The closing price was 18887 yuan/kg, with a significant volume of 1.4428 million transactions. In the last hour of trading, Shanghai Silver Red exceeded 10% to Green exceeded 2%. What happened in the market?
What happened in the market when Shanghai’s silver red exceeded 10% to green exceeded 2%?
The one hour “shocking reversal” (from a rise of over 10% to a green excess of 2%) was a “kill more” stampede under the resonance of supply and demand, macro, capital, policies, and external shocks. The core is the combination of high-level profit taking and external market drag, tightening risk control and amplifying liquidity gap fluctuations, limited inventory and warehouse receipt support, reversal of macro and risk aversion sentiment, and resonance between sector sentiment and fund stampede. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. High profit taking+killing and trampling:
Within the year, the increase exceeded 160%, and the high-level carrying capacity of 19998 yuan was insufficient, triggering programmed profit taking and active liquidation of long positions; Highly leveraged accounts (partially ≥ 5 times) are forced to cut their positions due to insufficient margin, resulting in a negative feedback of “selling – price drop – more closing positions”. When liquidity dries up, fluctuations are amplified by 10-15 times.
2. Collapse of international silver price linkage:
London spot silver plummeted from $83.94 to $75.11 within an hour (a drop of over 5%), while COMEX silver also experienced a synchronized drop. The internal market followed the rapid correction of the external market, and the convergence of the internal and external price differences triggered arbitrage selling.
3. Exchange risk control tightening:
The Zhishang Exchange has raised the metal performance guarantee deposit, while the previous exchange had already raised the silver guarantee deposit and limit up/down board, increasing the holding cost and prompting funds to reduce positions and exit, further suppressing buying power.
4. Macro and risk aversion sentiment reversal:
Rumors of progress in the Russia Ukraine peace talks have triggered a decline in safe haven demand, coupled with a short-term rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on the financial properties of silver and causing funds to quickly flow out of precious metals.
5. Limited inventory and warehouse receipt support:
Although inventory is low, the support of warehouse receipts for prices at high levels is covered by panic emotions, and only shows carrying capacity around 17500 yuan.
6. Resonance between sector sentiment and fund stampede:
In the early stage, silver, platinum, and palladium all experienced extreme increases due to the influx of speculative funds and expectations of interest rate cuts. On the afternoon of December 29th, the precious metal sector plummeted to a high level, triggering a “long kill long” trend. Programmed stop loss and forced liquidation quickly spread throughout the precious metal sector, triggering collective selling.

The operating trend of tin prices in 2025
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of 1 # tin ingots in East China was 245960 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 332710 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price has increased by 35.27% throughout the year.
In 2025, tin prices showed an overall N-shaped trend, fluctuating and rising in the first quarter. By March 22, they rose to around 280000 yuan and began a rapid correction. On April 15, they fell below the 260000 yuan mark, rebounded from the bottom, and fluctuated upwards. At the end of the year, they broke through 300000 yuan and continued to rise. The price range for the whole year is between 242000 and 332000, and the market presents a pattern of “supply constrained, demand driven” throughout the year.
1、 Review of Factors Influencing Tin Prices in 2025
1. Supply side: Comprehensive tension and continuous disturbance
Production stoppage in Wa State, Myanmar: The resumption of production has been continuously delayed since the ban on mining in 2023, resulting in a significant decrease in China’s tin ore imports.
Geopolitical conflict: The armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo led to the temporary suspension of production in major mining areas in Africa.
Cost increase: The shortage of mineral resources has caused smelting and processing fees to fall to a nearly six-year low, squeezing profits and leading to some smelters reducing production
2. Demand side: differentiation of new and old driving forces
Traditional demand is weak: orders in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and home appliances are light, with rigid procurement being the main focus.
Emerging demand provides long-term story: global semiconductor sales growth, high growth rate of AI servers, and the development of photovoltaics and new energy vehicles provide long-term support for tin demand
3. Inventory and Macro: Low Inventory and Macro Resonance
Global inventory is low: The inventory levels of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME are at historically low levels, exacerbating supply vulnerability.
Macro sentiment boost: By the end of November 2025, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates resonated with concerns about the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, driving Shanghai tin prices to a three-and-a-half-year high
2、 Forecast of Tin Price Trend in 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, the market consensus is that the tight supply situation will ease to some extent, but the supply-demand gap and low inventory will still support prices at historical highs, and the overall trend is expected to be “high volatility”.
2026 Supply Recovery Forecast
1. Global tin mine capacity increase and expansion after 2026
It is expected that the total new and expanded production capacity of global tin mines will increase by about 24000 tons by 2026. The overseas increment mainly comes from the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with an estimated output of 16500 tons. Other new and expanded production capacity is expected to increase by 4400 tons; The production capacity of domestic Yinman Mining has climbed, and the Villasto project, expected to start production in August, is expected to increase by a total of 3000 tons. Overall, the global increase in tin ore production is expected to be around 24000 tons by 2026, with the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar being the main source of this increase.
2. The resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate
According to public reports, the southwest monsoon will exit Myanmar in mid October 2025, marking the end of the rainy season and the arrival of early winter. From the significant increase in customs declaration data at Menglian Port in November, it can be seen that the previous rainy season and equipment issues have been basically resolved, and the resumption of production is expected to accelerate. It is expected to increase production by 15000 metal tons year-on-year in 2026.
3. Supply situation of mining terminals in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria
2026 demand resilience

Support: The high-end development of semiconductors with AI computing power as the core and the green transformation of energy (photovoltaics, new energy vehicles) are clear medium – and long-term demand growth points. Tin demand is expected to continue to rise.
Pressure: In the first quarter of 2026, the traditional consumer sector will enter the off-season. Global smartphone shipments may slightly decrease, photovoltaic module production may decrease month on month, and high tin prices have also suppressed downstream willingness to replenish inventory.
Inventory and cost constitute bottom support: Global explicit inventory is expected to remain low. At the same time, the declining grade of global tin ore resources and rising exploration costs have provided a solid bottom for tin prices from the long-term cost perspective.
Overall, the tin price in 2026 will be in a game between “supply recovery” and “demand resilience/disturbance risk”. By 2026, the global tin market supply and demand pattern may show a gap, and the core focus of the current market is on the potential disruptive factors of overseas mining supply and the verification of actual demand. In this context, the expected operating range of the Shanghai Tin Index is roughly between 260000 yuan/ton and 390000 yuan/ton.