The domestic PP market recovered after a decline in the first half of May, and rose in the second half. The price fluctuations of various brand products are relatively narrow. As of May 31st, the benchmark price for PP drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 9723.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.81% compared to the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In May, high-level signals from both the United States and Iran in the Middle East were released intensively, and overall they were relatively positive. In the long run, the shortage of crude oil supply will gradually narrow, but it will take time for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to fully recover. There is a divergence in market mentality, with a tangled game between marginal premiums and fundamentals within the range. In the latter half of the year, oil prices rapidly fell, and the cost value of PP’s remote end weakened. The demand for propylene in the market is stable, but some enterprises have restarted their facilities within the month. The expected increase in supply suppressed some of the gains and led to a high-level pullback market. Overall, the PP raw material market is fluctuating, with weakened support for PP costs at the end of the month.
Supply side:
During May, there were many production capacity shutdowns and returns of domestic PP enterprises, and the overall operating rate was in a historically low range. As of the deadline for publication, the overall load of the domestic industry is less than 50%, and the weekly output has fallen below 670000 tons. The current inventory position is below 700000 tons, and the overall supply performance is tight. Overall, the supply side has strong support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by the rising market trend at the end of the first quarter, PP prices remained relatively high during May, and downstream markets in the industry continued to resist high prices, resulting in a cautious overall trading atmosphere. The current buyer camp is picking up goods on demand, with average warehouse building operations, and often seeing scattered small orders that can be picked up as needed. Meanwhile, due to the high cost pressure, the improvement in operating rates of small and micro end enterprises is limited, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and acquire goods. The demand side is generally in a wait-and-see situation, with average support for PP.
Future forecast
In May, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated in the first half of the month and rose in the second half. Fundamentally speaking, maintenance in May maintained a concentrated trend, industry load levels bottomed out, port imports remained low, and spot resources in the market turned tight. However, the cost side has fluctuated and weakened, coupled with weak demand and expectations of a return to production capacity in June. Business Society PP analysts believe that the current PP market is weak in both supply and demand, and the upward momentum in the future is hindered. The magnitude of this increase may be hindered.

This month (5.1-5.29), the 1 # tin ingot market in East China saw a significant increase, with an average market price of 386910 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 424960 yuan/ton as of May 29th, an increase of 9.83%.
Supply and demand side
The core incentive for the sharp rise in tin prices in mid May came from the supply side. The resumption progress of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar continues to be lower than market expectations – previously, the market generally expected to resume mining in the second quarter, but the actual implementation has been repeatedly delayed. At the same time, the rainy season in Indonesia has affected the export of refined tin, and LME tin inventories have continued to decline in mid to early May, exacerbating concerns about raw material shortages. Funds quickly boosted the futures market, causing a brief reluctance to sell sentiment in the spot market.
The actual downstream consumption has not followed up. Solder companies and terminals (photovoltaic solder strips, consumer electronics) have extremely low acceptance of high prices and only maintain essential procurement. The slow depletion of social inventory indicates that weak demand is the fundamental constraint. The characteristic of low peak season runs through the entire month of May.
comprehensive analysis
Short term tin prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is important to focus on the support strength of the 20 day moving average (approximately 422000 yuan/ton). If the support is effective, the price may fluctuate and consolidate within the range of 410000 to 43000 yuan/ton; If it falls below this support, it may further explore the early platform around 400000. Looking ahead to June and the third quarter, tin prices are likely to enter a period of oscillation and bottoming out.

From May 2025 to May 2026, the natural rubber market will experience a sharp upward trend. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of natural rubber has risen from 13658 yuan/ton on May 28, 2025 to the current 17600 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 28.86%. This round of rise is the result of long-term bottlenecks on the supply side, extreme weather shocks, and the resonance of steady recovery on the demand side.
Supply and demand resonance drives the upward trend of Tianjiao market
The supply side continues to contract. The main production areas of natural rubber in the world are concentrated in Southeast Asia, with Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia contributing over 70% of the production. However, the current production areas are facing three pressures: aging rubber trees, shrinking planting areas, and frequent extreme weather events. Thailand, as the largest producer, has an average age of over 25 years for rubber trees, with more than half of them being aged. Its production capacity has been declining year by year; At the same time, rubber farmers have switched to planting economic crops such as oil palm and fruits, resulting in a continuous decline in the area of newly planted rubber plantations for many years. However, it takes 7 years for rubber trees to be planted and harvested, and the supply elasticity is seriously insufficient.
From 2025 to the first half of 2026, the El Ni ñ o phenomenon will cause sustained high temperatures and droughts in Southeast Asia. The rainfall in production areas such as Thailand and Vietnam will be 30% -50% less than usual, resulting in delayed cutting times and a significant decrease in latex production. The price of Thai cup rubber will increase by 29% year-on-year.
The domestic production areas in Hainan and Yunnan are also affected by drought, with a production reduction of about 30% in Hainan by 2025, further exacerbating global supply shortages.
According to ANRPC data, the global natural rubber production in 2025 will be 14.996 million tons, a year-on-year increase of only 2.0%; The expected production in 2026 is 15.324 million tons, while demand is expected to reach 15.602 million tons, widening the supply-demand gap to 400000 tons, resulting in continuous years of insufficient production and demand.
Moderate recovery on the demand side. More than 70% of the demand for natural rubber comes from the tire industry, and the prosperity of the automotive industry directly affects market trends. Since 2025, the global automotive industry has gradually recovered, and domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles have continued to grow. The amount of rubber used per vehicle is about 15% higher than that of fuel vehicles, and tire wear is faster and replacement cycles are shortened, significantly driving demand for natural rubber. Combined with domestic heavy truck updates and infrastructure investment, the demand for all steel tires has steadily increased. In addition, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to be at a low level in recent years, with tight spot circulation and intensified price increases due to traders’ hoarding behavior.
From a fundamental perspective, the tight supply-demand balance in the natural rubber market is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, the current situation of aging rubber trees and low planting willingness in the main production areas of Southeast Asia is difficult to improve quickly, and extreme weather disturbances still exist, with limited new production capacity; On the demand side, the recovery of the global automotive industry and the popularization of new energy vehicles will continue to support tire demand, and the consumption potential of emerging markets will gradually be released. In the short term, after the price surges, it may face downward pressure, but the upward logic in the medium and long term remains unchanged. The natural rubber price center is expected to maintain a high level of operation, with increased volatility.

From May 18th to May 26th, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose, with an initial market average price of 414640 yuan/ton. As of May 26th, the market average price was 424170 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30.
The tin price has gone through a V-shaped reversal of “rapid bottoming out, daily surge, and high-level consolidation”, and has risen back to 424000 yuan/ton. Under the background of low inventory, price elasticity has significantly increased due to the resonance of the triple supply shock caused by the interruption of external transportation from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the obstruction of resuming production during the rainy season in Myanmar, and the expected tax reform in Indonesia.
From the perspective of supply and demand analysis, the “three consecutive strikes” of supply and demand have a moderate degree of rigidity and resilience
The supply side has become the core engine of this round of price increase:
The public health incident in the Democratic Republic of Congo resulted in the cut-off of the Bisie tin mine’s external transportation channel (accounting for about 6.6% of global supply), and the resumption time is unknown;
After the rainy season and earthquake, the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar only reached 40% -50% of the pre mining ban level, and imports in April decreased by another 22% month on month;
Indonesia’s exports plummeted by 54% year-on-year in April, and the royalty tax rate is planned to be raised from 10% to 20%, further suppressing exports.
The demand side presents a rigid bottom support: the demand for solder materials for new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI servers is steadily increasing, but the premium for spot goods above 425000 yuan/ton has narrowed, and downstream processing enterprises are once again afraid of high prices. The high price suppression effect cannot be ignored.
In terms of inventory, the global explicit inventory is at a historical low (8693 tons on the previous exchange, 8195 tons on LME), and the combination of “low inventory+supply disturbance” amplifies the upward price elasticity.
comprehensive analysis
Short term supply disturbances are difficult to solve, and tin prices are expected to operate strongly in the range of 415000 to 435000 yuan/ton. We need to closely monitor the progress of border recovery in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the actual impact of the rainy season in Myanmar. In the medium term, the global tin reserve production ratio is only 20.7 years, and the underlying logic of price center upward shift remains unchanged due to the scarcity of resources and the increasing demand for AI computing power. However, caution should be exercised: if Myanmar’s resumption of production accelerates beyond expectations or downstream consumption shows a significant decline, there is a possibility that tin prices may fall back to the 400000 yuan mark.

On May 25th, the international crude oil market experienced severe fluctuations, with oil prices plummeting by over 7% in a single day, setting a rare recent decline. Among them, Brent crude oil futures fell by $7.26, a decrease of 7.02%, with a settlement price of $96.14 per barrel; US WTI crude oil futures fell $6.30, or 6.52%, to $90.30 per barrel. The core driving force behind this sharp decline is the market’s optimistic expectations of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Although both sides downplay the expectation of a breakthrough and there is still a delay in actual supply recovery, the concentration of geopolitical risk premiums has directly triggered a significant rebound in oil prices.
PTA prices have fallen along with the cost side, and the market negotiation atmosphere is average, with traders mainly engaged in negotiations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price in East China on May 26th was 6160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% from the previous trading day. From the perspective of its own supply side, due to the continuous compression of processing profits and the limited supply of raw materials, PTA plant maintenance has increased. A 2.5 million ton plant in East China is expected to shut down unexpectedly near May 24th, with an estimated 7-10 days. As of May 21st, the PTA operating rate is around 60%, lower than the historical level of the same period. PTA has been operating at a low historical level and will further reduce inventory.
However, the off-season atmosphere in the terminal textile market is strong, with insufficient orders and downstream production on demand. The summer fabric orders in the domestic market have entered the final stage, and weaving enterprises generally adopt a model of reducing burden and production. The enterprise strictly controls the stocking of raw materials and implements the strategy of “urgent procurement, fast in and fast out”, with a cautious attitude towards stocking. The polyester industry, including polyester filament and staple fibers, has been dragged down by continuous destocking in the weaving process and a lack of orders for greige fabrics, leading mainstream enterprises to passively reduce burdens and production. Polyester bottle chips are relatively preferred in terms of performance. Currently, it is the peak season for beverage packaging consumption, and there is also an increase in demand for exports. The industry’s operating rate remains stable.
Looking at the future, the weakening of cost support, the decline in crude oil prices, and the slower than expected short-term destocking process of PX have increased the downward momentum of PTA prices due to cost pressures. Downstream, the main focus is on replenishing inventory for essential needs, with a cautious attitude towards stocking up. The sustained low demand has dragged down the market. Business analysts believe that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.