1、 Price trend
According to the commodity market analysis system, the market position of aniline has recently risen. On December 11th, the market price of aniline was 7637 yuan/ton, and on December 18th it was 7945 yuan/ton, with a 4.03% increase during the period and a 12.21% decrease compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
Recently, the aniline market has received positive support from the supply side, resulting in a significant increase in prices. On Monday, some factories underwent maintenance, leading to reduced supply expectations and boosting business confidence. At the same time, the price position in the early stage and the inventory pressure of the enterprise are not significant. On Monday, the manufacturer increased by 250 yuan/ton. The price has risen to 7900 yuan/ton. As prices rise to a high level and demand remains relatively flat, the high price of aniline is expected to stabilize over the weekend.
Cost wise: The raw material pure benzene market continues to fluctuate at a low level. Recently, the supply of pure benzene has decreased, but from the end of November to early December, it has been concentrated at ports, and port inventories have continued to rise. From the demand side, the downstream load of pure benzene has decreased to varying degrees recently. The overall supply and demand of pure benzene in the short term are weak, coupled with weak support from crude oil on the cost side, resulting in weak operation of pure benzene.
3、 Future expectations
At present, the trading in the aniline market is stable and the demand is flat. It is expected that the aniline market will maintain stable operation in the short term, and we will closely monitor the changes in raw materials and supply and demand in the future.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 17th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3820 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF supply is sufficient, and downstream essential procurement is the main focus. The demand is flat and difficult to improve.
2、 Cause analysis
Market wise: Currently, the DMF market is mainly operating at a weak price, with insufficient market benefits and lack of confidence among industry players. The overall market supply of DMF is sufficient, and inventory is mainly running at high levels. Inventory consumption is slow, and there is insufficient room for price increases.
In terms of methanol, the upstream methanol market is showing a stable to strong trend, with manufacturers’ shipments remaining stable and urgent needs being met. The focus of market negotiations is running smoothly, while methanol prices in the East China region are fluctuating. Operators are cautious in their operations, and high inventory still suppresses prices. The methanol market in Shanxi region is fluctuating, with all auctions being successful and the negotiation atmosphere still acceptable.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will mainly remain stable, with high inventory levels suppressing price increases, resulting in a clear oversupply situation and slow inventory consumption.

This week, the acrylic acid market did not continue in a completely stable state, but showed characteristics of weak stability, oscillation, and narrow downward trend. On December 16th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (6083.33 yuan/ton).
Market dynamics:
The recent “weak stable oscillation” pattern in the market is the result of the power game between supply, demand, and cost
Supply side:
Relatively stable but slightly increasing. Since early December, with the restart of some previously shut down or load reducing devices, the industry’s operating load has increased, and the market’s spot supply has gradually increased. The pricing strategy of cargo holders tends to be flexible.
Demand side:
Downstream demand is limited, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. This is consistent with the situation you mentioned of ‘downstream urgent needs follow-up’, but the overall demand momentum is insufficient. The average performance of orders in the terminal field (such as coatings, adhesives, SAP resins, etc.) has led downstream factories to adopt a strategy of “purchasing on demand and buying at low prices”, lacking enthusiasm for bulk stocking.
Cost side:
The price of the main raw material propylene remained relatively stable in early December, providing some support for the cost of acrylic acid. As of December 16th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6190.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton). But under weak demand, it is difficult for costs to be smoothly transmitted downstream, and the profit margins of producers are squeezed.
Short term market outlook:
Overall, the core contradiction in the current acrylic acid market is the game of “high cost and weak demand”. In the absence of strong demand pull, it is expected that the market will remain weakly consolidated within the current price range in the short term, making it difficult to see a clear directional upward trend.
In the long run, the industry is undergoing structural changes. With the commissioning of large-scale projects such as BASF Zhanjiang, supply is becoming more relaxed, and competition is shifting from “scale competition” to “technology premium”. In the future, top enterprises with high-end specialty product production capabilities and integrated cost advantages will have stronger competitiveness.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle. From December 1st to December 15th, 2025, the price of butadiene will increase from 6983.33 yuan/ton to 7400 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.97%. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle, and the recent trend of the butadiene market is relatively strong. Due to the increasing willingness of the supply side to raise prices and the linkage effect of the recent rise in external prices, it is difficult to find low-priced sources of butadiene in the domestic market. Recently, the trend of downstream synthetic rubber futures has been strong, and the utilization rate of production capacity of major downstream products such as butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber remains high. The stable performance of procurement demand provides solid fundamental support for the butadiene market, driving the price fluctuation and rise of the butadiene market.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.44 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February is $61.12 per barrel. The crude oil price market first fell and then rose in this cycle. At the beginning of this cycle, the regional situation eased slightly, and coupled with the weakening of US demand, the US tariff issue dragged down global economic and demand expectations, resulting in a low international oil price market. In the later stage, OPEC+oil producing countries postponed production increases, and the geopolitical peace agreement was unlikely to be reached. Geopolitical factors led to an upward trend in crude oil prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 7350 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan/ton.
Shenghong Refining’s 200000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton and an implementation of 7500 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 15th, the market for Shunding rubber in East China has been rising. Recently, the domestic synthetic rubber futures market has been fluctuating upwards, with some merchants offering a slight increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 10800-11200 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 10600~10800 yuan/ton. At present, there is a significant price difference between butadiene and synthetic rubber. The utilization rate of downstream butadiene rubber production capacity has reached a high of 76% this year, and the utilization rate of styrene butadiene rubber production capacity has also increased to over 80%. The downstream industry is operating steadily and the profit margin is still acceptable, which can effectively support the procurement demand for butadiene.
Market forecast: Overall, the short-term domestic butadiene market is expected to continue a strong and volatile pattern. With the support of favorable fundamentals, it is expected that there will still be some upward space in the spot market in the short term. In the future, two variables need to be focused on: the actual transaction follow-up situation in the market, and the rhythm of imported goods arriving at the port and the subsequent trend of synthetic rubber futures.

Cobalt prices have fluctuated and risen since November
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on December 12th was 410620 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 21.02% compared to the cobalt price of 339300 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to November 5th, the cobalt price of 385700 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 6.46%. After the introduction of the export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the country has added temporary royalty requirements and complex processes, adding uncertainty to the already tight cobalt supply chain. The expected shortage of cobalt supply in the international market has intensified, and cobalt prices have risen sharply.
Congo introduces quota system
In February 2025, the Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced a four month suspension of cobalt product exports in response to the global cobalt market oversupply; In June, the export ban was announced to be extended for three months; In September, the Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced on the 21st that the country would end the cobalt export ban implemented since February this year from October 15th, and switch to an export quota system on October 16th until further notice. For the remainder of this year, mining companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt, with a maximum export volume of 96600 tons per year in 2026 and 2027. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has implemented a cobalt export quota system, resulting in a significant reduction in supply to the cobalt market in the country.
New regulations added in the Democratic Republic of Congo
The Ministry of Mines and the Ministry of Finance of the Democratic Republic of the Congo jointly announced on November 26 that cobalt exporters are required to prepay 10% of mining royalty fees and strengthen export supervision measures. The new regulations include mandatory quota review, joint sampling, batch weighing and sealing, as well as quota verification certificates (AVQ) issued by the Strategic Mineral Market Supervision Bureau (ARECOMS). Cobalt exporters are required to prepay 10% of the fee within 48 hours after submitting the country of origin and sales declaration, and obtain a “release receipt” before customs clearance. All mineral transportation must undergo on-site inspections and multi agency supervision. Due to unclear procedures and vague payment requirements, no goods have left the port so far. The stagnation of cobalt exports in the Democratic Republic of Congo has exacerbated the risk of cobalt shortage in the market, leading to a tight supply of cobalt.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the introduction of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to a shortage of supply in the cobalt market. The new regulations in the Democratic Republic of Congo have caused an increase in the cost of cobalt exports, and the unclear procedures for cobalt exports have resulted in a stagnation of cobalt exports in the country. As a result, the supply shortage in the cobalt market has intensified, leading to an increase in cobalt costs. Overall, due to supply shortages and rising costs, there is still room for cobalt prices to rise in the future.