1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices first rose and then fluctuated at a high level in April. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 96953.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 101498.33 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 4.69% and a year-on-year increase of 31%.
In the first half of April, the spot price of copper was higher than the futures price, and the main contract was the expected price two months later, causing copper prices to rise; In the second half of the month, futures prices were higher than spot prices, with weak upward momentum.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory first rose and then fell in April. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 399725 tons, up 10.6% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve maintains its “static braking” strategy, and the April interest rate decision is in line with market expectations (keeping interest rates unchanged). However, due to inflation expectations driven by geopolitical conflicts, market expectations for interest rate cuts this year have significantly cooled down, and the high operation of the US dollar index has exerted some pressure on copper prices. The economic data for the first quarter started well, with the manufacturing PMI rising by 0.1 percentage points month on month in April, continuing to be in the expansion zone.
Supply side: Since April, TC has continued to decline and fallen into a deep negative range. TC has been negative for 16 consecutive months. In theory, smelters should reduce production on a large scale, but in reality, domestic production in China remains at a high level. The secret lies in the abundant profits from sulfuric acid by-products. Smelting one ton of copper produces about 3.5-4 tons of sulfuric acid as a byproduct. Previously, the price of sulfuric acid soared to 1760 yuan/ton (a year-on-year increase of 204%), allowing pyrometallurgical plants to maintain production under the “inverted” processing fee.
Due to the accelerated erosion of furnace lining by high sulfur ore, the maintenance that was originally scheduled for July and August has been advanced to the second quarter. In April, 8 smelters have entered the maintenance period, and it is expected that a total of 13 smelters have maintenance plans, affecting a total output of about 224000 tons. The estimated production of electrolytic copper in April is 1.1731 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the previous month and an increase of 4.2% year-on-year. Under the background of tight copper concentrate and smelting losses, the maintenance efforts may exceed expectations.
Downstream: Downstream processing enterprises have a clear fear of high copper prices and tend to adopt rigid procurement, resulting in weak new orders and a market dominated by long orders. But the performance of the power sector is impressive – the growth rate of power grid investment is strong (79.84% year-on-year growth in January and February), and power investment has increased by 32.35% year-on-year, which is the biggest support direction for domestic copper consumption. The predicted operating rate of cable companies is 72.63%, setting a new high for the year. In terms of household appliances, the total production of the three major white goods in April was 37.64 million units, a decrease of 3.6% compared to the same period last year. The performance in the real estate sector has been lackluster, with limited impact on copper consumption. The export momentum of the “new three types” represented by photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries is strong. The proportion of copper demand in emerging fields is expected to reach about 25.44% in 2026, driving about 810000 tons of copper demand, including 280000 tons driven by new energy vehicles (a year-on-year increase of 16%), 270000 tons driven by AI data centers (a year-on-year increase of 31%), 110000 tons driven by energy storage (a year-on-year increase of 58%), 80000 tons driven by photovoltaics (a year-on-year increase of 3%), and 70000 tons driven by wind power (a year-on-year increase of 12%). The construction of AI computing power centers and the expansion of PCB production have opened up new growth opportunities for copper consumption.

In summary, from May to June, domestic smelters entered a period of intensive maintenance, coupled with the continuous contraction pressure of overseas wet smelting, the release of refined copper production was limited, and the slowdown in supply growth rate will support copper prices. Since May, China has restricted the export of sulfuric acid, which may lead to a drop in sulfuric acid prices and compress smelting profits. If the by-product income significantly decreases, it will strengthen the expectation of smelting plants reducing production and form structural support for copper prices. After the peak season of “Silver IV”, there may be a seasonal decline in demand intensity, but the high investment in power infrastructure continues, and the demand for copper for AI computing power center construction is still increasing. Domestic inventory depletion remains the core observation indicator for short-term price support. Looking ahead to the trend in May and the second quarter, it is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level.

The market for polyaluminum chloride rose in April, with China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market reporting around 1811.67 yuan/ton on the 30th and 1745 yuan/ton on the 1st, up 1.45%.
In the production cost of polyaluminum chloride, raw materials such as alumina and hydrochloric acid account for over 60%, and the upstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated in April; The hydrochloric acid market has experienced periodic price increases due to adjustments in the operating rate of chlor alkali enterprises, which has provided cost support for the overall price of polyaluminum chloride.
In April, we entered the peak season for traditional water treatment demand, with the upgrading and renovation of municipal sewage treatment plants, an increase in the operating rate of industrial wastewater treatment projects, and the release of downstream procurement needs. Especially in the field of drinking water treatment, the demand for high-quality polyaluminum chloride with alumina content ≥ 28% remains stable. The order volume of top water plants has increased month on month, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers has eased, resulting in an increased willingness to quote.
Market forecast: Some chlor alkali enterprises still have planned maintenance in May, which will limit the production of hydrochloric acid by-products; In May, the newly added alumina production capacity of approximately 4-5 million tons per year in Fangchenggang, Yulin and other places in Guangxi will enter the centralized production stage, further exacerbating the pressure of industry oversupply; Excess supply of alumina suppresses cost increases, limited room for price increases in hydrochloric acid, coupled with a lack of unexpected positive news on the demand side of the polyaluminum chloride market, the driving force for a significant increase in product prices is insufficient, and it is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern.

In April 2026, the domestic phenol market continued to decline, with the overall market briefly rising and then rapidly falling, and the price center continuously shifting downwards. The supply-demand contradiction and external factors dominated the downward trend in this round.
In April, the overall price of phenol showed a slight increase followed by a continuous bottoming out process. At the beginning of the month, it was supported by the geopolitical event of Saudi Arabia’s attack and the peak season of “Golden Three Silver Four”. In the first week, it continued to rise, with prices ranging from 9300-9700 yuan/ton, and mainstream enterprises simultaneously adjusted up their factory prices. On April 8th, crude oil and upstream pure benzene and propylene prices fell sharply, while phenol prices began to rebound. The daily decline on April 8th reached 2.24%, and on April 10th, it decreased by 2.14% compared to the beginning of the month. From mid month to the end of the month, the core regions of East China, Shandong, and South China experienced a simultaneous general decline. As of the end of the month, the mainstream domestic price remained in the range of 8800-9200 yuan/ton, with a significant decrease from the high at the beginning of the month.
（1） Cost side support collapse
The international crude oil prices plummeted sharply after running at a high level at the beginning of the month, driving down the prices of core raw materials such as pure benzene and propylene. Pure benzene fell by more than 7% in a single day, and the cost support for phenol completely collapsed, highlighting downward pressure.
（2） Weak demand side
Although there is a strong demand for downstream industries such as bisphenol A and phenolic resin, the high price of phenol has led to a sharp increase in downstream cost pressure. Enterprises have shifted their procurement to on-demand replenishment, speculative demand has disappeared, and the transmission of the industrial chain has been hindered, resulting in negative feedback.
（3） High level operation on the supply side
In April, the utilization rate of domestic phenol ketone production capacity remained at a high level of 86.0% -86.5%. Although some overseas enterprises reduced their losses, the impact on the domestic market was limited, and the stable supply intensified the pressure on circulation.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the short-term support for crude oil and raw material prices is limited, and downstream demand is difficult to recover quickly. The phenol market will continue to fluctuate weakly. There are long-term opportunities for export and high-end demand growth, but in the short term, supply-demand imbalance and weak costs remain dominant. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak in May, and attention should be paid to changes in crude oil, demand, and overseas supply.

As of April 28th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% from the zinc price of 23954 yuan/ton on April 21st.
On April 28th, it plummeted 516 yuan/ton in a single day, completely giving up this week’s gains and hitting a new low in nearly two weeks, with the largest single day decline since the rebound in March.
Fundamental and message driven
The sharp decline this time is the result of four negative resonances: firstly, the vacuum effect of pre holiday demand. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream galvanizing, die-casting, and zinc oxide enterprises have all stopped production ahead of schedule to reduce losses, and raw material procurement has basically stagnated, causing spot market trading to hit a freezing point; The second is the concentrated redemption of high-level profit taking positions. Since the rebound started in March, the cumulative increase in zinc prices has exceeded 7.5%, approaching a three-and-a-half-year high. Long positions have benefited greatly, and pre holiday safe haven exits have triggered a stampede; Thirdly, there has been a substantial reversal in the supply and demand pattern. The latest data from ILZSG shows that in February, the global shortage of refined zinc increased from 21900 tons to an excess of 49600 tons, and the expected surplus for the whole year of 2026 has been raised to 175000 tons; Fourthly, macro risk appetite has fallen, with the Federal Reserve’s May interest rate meeting approaching and the US dollar index running strong, putting overall pressure on industrial metals.
comprehensive analysis
Short term zinc prices will continue to show a weak adjustment trend. If downstream demand fails to effectively recover after May Day, the price is expected to drop by 23500 yuan/ton, and the medium-term downward target is expected to reach 23000 yuan/ton; In terms of the upward trend, it is necessary to increase volume and break through the pressure level of 24000 yuan/ton in order to reverse the short-term decline.

According to the Business Society Spot News, in the second half of April, the formaldehyde market showed a trend of high-level decline and fluctuating weakness. As of April 27th, the average formaldehyde price in Shandong Province was reported at 1386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.74% from the middle of the month and still at a high level for a year.
Driving factor analysis
1. Weakening of cost support: Weakening of raw material methanol prices
The core raw material of formaldehyde is methanol, and its price trend directly determines the cost line of formaldehyde. In the second half of April, the domestic methanol market was affected by expectations of loose supply and demand, resulting in price fluctuations and weakened prices. In some regions, the ex factory price of methanol fell, directly compressing the cost support of formaldehyde enterprises. When the cost of raw materials loosens and the bargaining power of downstream buyers increases, it forces formaldehyde companies to lower their prices to match cost changes, which is an important fundamental factor in the current round of formaldehyde price decline.
2. Continued weakness on the demand side: downstream demand for artificial board industry significantly decreases
The core downstream applications of formaldehyde are in the building materials industry such as artificial boards and adhesives. The core drag of this round of market downturn is the significant contraction of demand in the downstream artificial board industry. In mid to late April, artificial board companies were affected by the sluggish demand in the terminal real estate and home decoration markets, resulting in a sustained low operating rate and a significant reduction in the purchase of formaldehyde. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises generally have no intention of stocking up before the holiday, and the procurement pace only maintains the replenishment of essential needs. The market transaction lacks support for large volume, and the driving force for price increases is completely lost.
3. The weak situation cannot be changed by reducing the supply side, and enterprises offer discounts to control inventory during shipment
Although some formaldehyde companies have proactively adjusted their operating loads and reduced their on-site supply to a certain extent, the supply reduction is still difficult to effectively boost the market due to the cliff like weakening of the demand side. Under the dual pressure of low demand and accumulated inventory, many formaldehyde factories in China have been forced to adopt a strategy of discounted shipments, accelerating inventory turnover by lowering prices and expanding discounts, maintaining controllable inventory levels, and directly exacerbating the downward pressure on market prices.
Market forecast:
The short-term decline has slowed down, with weak fluctuations being the main trend. Short term demand is difficult to quickly recover, and there is insufficient stocking demand before the holidays. Enterprises will continue to offer discounts for shipments; However, the previous decline has partially absorbed the bearish sentiment, and low-priced goods may attract a small amount of essential replenishment. The space for further significant price drops is limited, and the market is mainly fluctuating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the trend of raw material methanol, downstream demand recovery, and supply side adjustment efforts.