1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 136250 yuan/ton, down 2.78% from the beginning of the week and up 7.26% year-on-year.
In the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 4 times and risen 8 times, with a slight correction from their high levels recently.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, employment and inflation in the United States continue to slow down, but some areas have improved under the boost of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. There are still differences in the Federal Reserve’s future inflation targets for measuring employment, and it tends to be cautious in the short term.
On the supply side: Several manufacturers that reduced production in the fourth quarter of last year showed a significant rebound in production in January, coupled with the continuous arrival of overseas resources and relatively low prices of Indonesian resources. In the case of sufficient overall spot supply, downstream enterprises are not in a hurry to stock up and mainly purchase according to production pace. In January, China’s refined nickel production was 37700 tons, an increase of 20.06% month on month and 25.54% year-on-year.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises are buying at low prices, and the “Two Sessions” emphasize the long-term benefits of defense spending. Insufficient boost in demand for stainless steel terminals during the off-season, and steel mills still have some raw material inventory in the early stage, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude towards rising prices of raw materials; There is a strong demand for downstream ternary exports and pre holiday inventory preparation, but the purchase volume of nickel sulfate is still relatively small. Downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and prices are expected to remain volatile
In summary, the boost in demand for stainless steel terminals during the off-season is insufficient, and steel mills still have some raw material inventory in the early stage, so they are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude towards the price increase of raw materials; There is a pressing need for downstream ternary exports and pre holiday inventory preparation, but the procurement volume of nickel sulfate is still relatively low. Domestic exports are hindered, and social inventory continues to accumulate, resulting in a recent convergence of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Overall, the recent macro sentiment and changes in mining expectations have affected the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. The macro market is currently stable, and there is no clear result of mining disturbances. Prices will still be supported before landing, and nickel prices are expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations and adjustments in stainless steel prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6533 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6663 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95%.
In the first week of February, the Shandong n-butanol market fell back from a high level
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week of February 2026 (2.1-2.5), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, showed a fluctuating trend. At the beginning of the week, the n-butanol market fluctuated, and on-site negotiations began to loosen. Starting from the middle of the week, the overall market focus shifted downwards, and the overall shipment prices of large factories were lowered, driving the market situation downwards. The low price fell to 6400 yuan/ton. As of February 5th, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 6400-6700 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Loose supply and demand pattern: After entering February, the downstream replenishment of n-butanol is coming to an end, and the overall market demand is weakening. Coupled with the downward adjustment of quotes by some large factories in Shandong, the overall supply side pressure on the market is evident, and the transmission of supply and demand is slowing down, leading to price pressure and a decline.
Future forecast
At present, the transaction volume of n-butanol market has turned light, and downstream consumers are gradually resistant to the rising market price. In the short term, it is expected that the pre holiday n-butanol market price will continue to operate weakly and consolidate. In the long run, it is necessary to pay more attention to the post holiday market resumption situation and the new round of purchasing strength of downstream users.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have continued to rise recently. On February 3, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 654 points, up 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.05% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 141.33% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all shown an upward trend. As of the 4th, the price of neodymium oxide was 820000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.47% in February; The price of neodymium metal is 982500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.69% since February; The price of praseodymium oxide is 790000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.27%; The price of praseodymium metal is 960000 yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 2.69%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 920000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.55%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 755000 yuan/ton, and remained stable in February.
In February, the domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise, and there was a strong bullish sentiment towards raw materials in the domestic light rare earth market. Macro news flowed out, and the supply and demand pattern of praseodymium neodymium products tightened, exacerbating market bullish expectations. Under the combined effect of insufficient market supply and bullish sentiment, the spot price of praseodymium neodymium significantly increased. In January 2026, rare earth producers raised the trading price of rare earth concentrates for the first quarter to 26834 yuan/ton, marking the sixth consecutive price increase and directly pushing up the cost center of downstream products such as praseodymium neodymium oxide. The outbreak of rigid demand and the vigorous development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances have driven an increase in orders from downstream magnetic material factories. The global supply-demand gap for praseodymium neodymium oxide is expected to widen to 9000 tons by 2026, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen, leading to a continuous rise in the light rare earth market.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is average, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. The supply-demand imbalance of praseodymium neodymium series products is evident, and the praseodymium neodymium market continues to rise; In addition, the long-term trend of increasing demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other end products remains unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream games, the light rare earth market will maintain a high position.

This week, the reason why the acrylic acid market can still report stable prices mainly depends on the producers’ willingness to raise prices. As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6116.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
1. Cost side:
The consolidation of the raw material propylene range and the slight weakening of the cost side are the most critical turning signals. The core logic of “cost driven” that has supported prices in the past few months is becoming ineffective. As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6391.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6404.33 yuan/ton).
2. Demand side:
The strong wait-and-see atmosphere at the beginning of the week directly exposed the weakness on the demand side. Downstream demand is not non-existent, but rather a common mentality of “waiting for a decline” or “purchasing on demand”, which leads to the market losing the “fuel” for upward movement and sluggish trading. As the Spring Festival approaches, terminal factories are gradually taking a holiday, which is an irreversible seasonal bearish trend. The shrinking demand is turning from expectation into reality, and this gravity will only become stronger and stronger.
Market situation:
The current ‘stability’ is a fragile weak balance. It is not a healthy stability of both supply and demand, but a brief stalemate formed during a downward trend due to sellers’ unwillingness to lower prices and buyers’ unwillingness to purchase. The buyer and seller are deadlocked at the critical point of “price”, but the pointer of time is sliding towards the weaker demand of the Spring Festival, and the balance is quietly tilting.
Future outlook:
Short term (pre holiday): This “price but no market” stalemate may continue for a few more days, but the exhaustion of patience on either side could disrupt the balance. If a large factory “offers discounts and ships” in order to recoup funds, or if the price of propylene further drops, it may trigger a small and exploratory price decline.
Post holiday: The real direction choice comes after the Spring Festival. At that time, two key points need to be considered: first, whether the pace of downstream resumption of work and the intensity of replenishment can quickly activate demand; The second is the extent of inventory pressure on upstream raw materials and factories. If the resumption of work falls short of expectations and inventory remains high, the pressure after the holiday may be concentrated and released.
Conclusion: The current “steady operation” should be seen more as a stagnant platform or buffer stage in the downward channel of the market, rather than a signal of trend stabilization. Under the dual impact of weakened costs and off-season demand, the risk of a downward adjustment in the market is greater than the probability of an upward breakthrough.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash fell in January. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1250 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1208 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 42 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 3.36%.
2、 Market analysis
According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market fluctuated and declined in January. In terms of supply, the early maintenance equipment has been restored, the operating rate of soda ash has increased, the market supply is abundant, the mentality of operators is bearish, and the focus of soda ash prices has shifted downwards; In terms of demand, the glass industry’s production lines are undergoing cold repairs, and the purchasing sentiment is relatively weak. The actual transaction demand is mainly driven by essential needs, and there is insufficient support for the demand for soda ash. The market supply and demand are weak, and soda ash prices have declined this month.
As of January 30, 2026, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1120-1560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20-40 yuan/ton compared to the previous month; The mainstream price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1100-1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; The mainstream price of light soda ash in North China is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 30-70 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices have been running strongly this month, with the average glass market price increasing from 12.75 yuan/square meter to 13.10 yuan/square meter, an overall increase of 2.75%. During the month, some glass production lines underwent cold repairs, resulting in a narrow decrease in industry operating rates. Downstream buyers entered the market on demand, and overall shipments were good. The pressure on enterprise inventory eased, and the glass industry experienced significant destocking, leading to an increase in glass prices.
Market forecast: On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, and market supply pressure still exists. The downstream mentality is wait-and-see, and there is limited support for soda ash due to the urgent need to purchase after entering the market. The short-term soda ash market will continue to be weak. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there may be a demand for replenishment in the downstream. It is expected that the soda ash market will experience narrow fluctuations in the future, depending on the follow-up situation of the downstream.