According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market fluctuated after a decline in early July, and prices of some brand products were lowered. As of July 8th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7376.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.09% compared to the price level at the beginning of July.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
At the beginning of July, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East eased, and market concerns about the risk of crude oil supply disruptions eased. At the same time, the OPEC+production increase agreement has been implemented, putting pressure on international oil prices. The domestic propane sector followed the decline of crude oil, falling at a high level. The cost support of PDH manufacturing enterprises has fallen, and the propylene sector has also entered a rapid decline channel. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials in early July provided weak support for costs.
Supply side:
At the beginning of July, the load of domestic PP enterprises was reduced, but the market supply remained abundant. Overall, industry maintenance has been relatively concentrated in recent times, with the overall load level dropping from 80% at the end of last month to around 77%, and the weekly average total output decreasing to 770000 tons. However, the domestic inventory digestion situation is not good, rising to nearly 800000 tons. In the interval, middling coal will stop for 45 days on July 1. Later, Jingbo, Dalian Petrochemical and other enterprises have plans to reduce the load, and the expected contraction of supply will partially alleviate the supply pressure. Overall, the supply side provided moderate support for PP spot prices in early July. However, including the new production capacity of Zhenhai Line 4 and Yulong Line 4 that have already been put into operation, as well as Yulong Petrochemical and other enterprises in the fourth quarter, a total of 1.4 million tons of new production capacity has been put into operation, severely limiting the long-term supply pattern.
In terms of demand:
In early July, the demand side of PP continued to be weak, and on-site trading gradually entered the traditional off-season. Merchants have hardly seen any advance stocking operations, and the on-site situation remains in a state of urgent need, with a focus on on-demand use. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises is already at the off-season level, and downstream PP enterprises in China are struggling to start production. Materials used in construction, agriculture and other fields are also at a low level and flat. On site new orders tend to be scattered small orders and contract deliveries, with flat liquidity of supply and slow release of PP demand. In the context of weak export and domestic demand, the demand side of PP has not provided strong support for spot prices.
Future forecast
In early July, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated after falling. Fundamentally speaking, the overall weakness of upstream raw materials has led to a decline in overall support for PP. The industry load has been reduced, and there is still room for narrowing supply in the future, but inventory has increased and supply remains abundant. Consumption is at a low season level. The current supply-demand contradiction and the decrease in cost value are combined, and the mentality of industry players is bearish. It is expected that the PP market will continue to be weak in the short term.

At the beginning of July, the overall consolidation of the domestic ABS market was weak, and the spot prices of some grades fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 7th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10612.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.12% compared to early July.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In early July, the load of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with small fluctuations, and the overall load level was adjusted from 66% at the end of last month to around 65%. The weekly average output of over 120000 tons remains unchanged, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises remains stable at over 200000 tons, with sufficient supply maintained on site. At the same time, the recent production capacity of new facilities in Liaoning has been put into operation, and Haijiang Chemical has resumed operation after maintenance at the end of last month, which has had a certain impact on the supply side support of the industry. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and current inventory is relatively controllable. The supply side provides average support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: As we enter July, the upstream three material market of ABS continues to be weak and has not shown any improvement, which has limited support for the cost side of ABS. In terms of acrylonitrile, at the beginning of the month, the Jieyang unit of Jihua resumed operation, the 400000 ton unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical increased production, and the 260000 ton unit of Liaoning Jinfa is planned to restart, resulting in a significant increase in supply. The inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories has risen to over 40000 tons, and the expected supply growth continues to affect market sentiment. Downstream on-demand procurement results in limited overall demand growth. In the future, there may be variables in the installation of equipment in the north, and the inventory of enterprises is not high, so there may be differences in the price trend between the north and south in the short term. However, the release of new production capacity has suppressed the East China region, and prices may remain relatively stagnant.
In early July, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. The current macroeconomic performance is poor, with insufficient support. There are loose expectations on the supply side, and the overall demand in the downstream synthetic rubber market is biased towards rigid demand, with no significant positive support on the demand side. Overall, under the influence of weak fundamentals, it is expected that the butadiene market will operate weakly.
The recent decline in styrene has continued. The atmosphere in Shandong’s local refining of raw material pure benzene is light, and at the same time, East China ports continue to accumulate inventory, causing prices to fall. In addition, there have been no new styrene plant maintenance recently, and some plants have increased their load, resulting in an increase in supply. The overall operating rate of downstream three S is weak, and there is a strong demand for procurement. It is expected that the market will operate weakly in the short term.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market has entered the traditional off-season, and terminal enterprises maintain a strong demand for supplementary orders. The market concerns caused by the deterioration of geopolitics in the Middle East in the early stage have basically dissipated. At the same time, industry players are worried that the possible US tariff policy may slow down market demand, coupled with the expected impact of OPEC’s production increase. The cautious atmosphere is pervasive in the market, and the flow of goods is slow. In addition, the domestic inventory position is still relatively high, the supply continues to be loose, and there is a lot of room for on-site turnover. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast

At the beginning of July, the domestic ABS market was weakly consolidating. The overall price of upstream three materials is weak, and the production load of ABS polymerization plant is stable with small fluctuations, while the demand side is at a low season level. Business analysts believe that the ABS market is unlikely to see any improvement in momentum recently due to the release of new production capacity, fluctuations in crude oil, and the impact of the traditional off-season. The industry’s strong supply and weak demand pattern will drag down spot prices in the long term, and it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a consolidation and weak pattern in the short term.

This week, the overall supply is abundant, but the fundamentals remain weak, with local inventory rising and the domestic acrylonitrile market remaining stagnant and weak. As of July 3rd, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports is between 8150-8250 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is negotiated at around 8000-8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply side: Supply continues to increase. According to statistics, as of July 3rd, the total output of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 83000 tons, an increase of 5300 tons compared to the previous cycle. The weekly capacity utilization rate reached 76.06%, a month on week increase of 4.85%.
Inventory level: Supply has significantly increased while demand remains stable, with some companies experiencing an increase in inventory. As of July 2nd, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was around 42800 tons, an increase of+0.18 million tons compared to last week.
Demand side: The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 65.04%, which is -0.96% compared to last week, and the total capacity has increased to 9.965 million tons per year; Capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises: 76.46%, unchanged from last week; Acrylamide production capacity utilization rate: 54.05%, up 1.40% from last week. Raw materials are purchased on demand, with limited overall demand growth.
Cost aspect: Upstream propylene prices fell during the week, resulting in a decrease in acrylonitrile production costs and insufficient cost support. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9096 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of -1.07%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -896 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 68 yuan/ton.
Overall, there is insufficient cost support, ample supply of new production capacity, and limited room for incremental demand, resulting in a still bearish market expectation. In the short term, there may be differences in price trends between the north and south, and the release of new production capacity from Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will exert pressure on the East China region; The northern installation may have variables, and the enterprise’s inventory is not high, so the price may remain relatively stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has remained weak and volatile recently. As of July 7th, the benchmark price of formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4% from 2500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 18.64% from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The stable operation of production facilities and the increase in market supply, coupled with the off-season of downstream consumption and weak demand, have led to high inventory levels and no upward momentum for formic acid.
From an upstream perspective, there is expected room for a decrease in imported methanol. Under the rise in methanol market prices, downstream industries have seen an increase in production costs, which has suppressed downstream demand and production under the situation of losses. As a result, the domestic methanol spot market has stabilized at a high level. The partial maintenance of the raw material liquid ammonia unit has not yet resumed, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is 2300-2450 yuan/ton.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current supply and demand of formic acid are weak. Although the raw material side provides some support, the upward momentum is insufficient, and it will continue to operate weakly in the short term. Specific market changes need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will first rise and then fall in June 2025, with an overall increase. From June 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price rose from 5470 yuan/ton to 6070 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.97% during the period.
Early October: The toluene market fluctuated and rose in this cycle, and the supply in Shandong region was tight this week. Some enterprises stopped work for maintenance, and the market supply was significantly tight. The downstream oil blending industry has a decent enthusiasm for entering the market, but overall demand tends to be rigid. The East and South China regions have been affected by port conditions this week, resulting in tight supply. Supported by favorable supply side conditions, the overall market price has risen.
Mid month: The toluene market fluctuated and rose, and the supply in Shandong region remained tight this week. Some enterprises pre sold, and the market supply was significantly tight. The ex factory prices of local refining enterprises were generally raised. The downstream oil blending industry has a decent level of enthusiasm for entering the market, with active inquiries. The port inventory in East and South China has significantly decreased this week, and the supply is also tight. Supported by favorable supply side conditions, the overall market price has risen.
Late period: The toluene market first rose and then fell, and the international crude oil trend fluctuated, causing the toluene market to follow suit. As the end of the month approached, geopolitical conflicts eased, and due to the weakening of crude oil, toluene prices declined, resulting in an overall bearish supply-demand performance.
On the cost side, the crude oil market prices surged and plummeted in June. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.73 per barrel. The crude oil market has experienced significant fluctuations this cycle, mainly due to the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. As the situation escalated and cooled down, crude oil prices have correspondingly risen and fallen sharply, with high volatility.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of June 30th, East China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6250-6200 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6100-6200 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30, 2025, the price of xylene sold by Sinopec Sales Company has remained stable, with a current price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of facilities such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical is stable and sales are normal, with a price reduction of 450 yuan/ton compared to May 29. As of June 27th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $841-843/ton FOB Korea and $866-868/ton CFR China, an increase of $5/ton from May 27th.
Market forecast: The crude oil market has shown significant fluctuations recently, with the toluene market being more affected. With the shutdown of Dalian Petrochemical, there has been a slight boost in supply, but downstream demand is difficult to increase, and the overall supply and demand for toluene remains bearish. Under the influence of crude oil fluctuations, it is expected that the recent toluene market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range, and the focus will be on the trend of crude oil in the future.