1、 Market trend
On October 14th, the reference price for the domestic butanone market was 9600 yuan/ton, an increase of 367 yuan/ton or 3.97% compared to the reference price of 9233 yuan/ton for butanone on October 1st.
In early October 2026, the domestic butanone market showed a steady upward trend. During the National Day holiday, the butanone market remained relatively calm with little fluctuation in the market. In the first week after the holiday, the butanone market experienced an upward trend, with butanone factories and holders raising their prices by around 300-500 yuan/ton during the week. As of October 14th, the domestic butanone market price reference was around 9450-9850 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: In early October, the price of the raw material product ether C4 of butanone fluctuated and remained at a relatively high level. The support of butanone from the cost side was strong, and the overall intention of butanone factories and operators to lower prices was limited. The mentality of holders was supported, and the offer was very strong, driving the market to continuously increase the focus of negotiations.
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply side of butanone is stable, and the supply pressure is still controllable. Some butanone operators have a certain degree of enthusiasm to enter the market for replenishment, which has led to a rebound in market trading atmosphere and jointly promoted the shift of market negotiation focus. However, the overall sentiment towards inquiries and purchases from downstream factories is average, with a focus on on-demand purchases and urgent needs. Overall transactions still need to be increased.
3、 Future prospects
At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic butanone market is mild, and the cost side support is still acceptable. There is a certain wait-and-see sentiment downstream, and factory inquiries and purchases are showing caution. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly operate with range fluctuations, and specific attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (October 7-13), the spot price of PA66 in the market remained stagnant, with the benchmark spot price stabilizing at 19100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase or decrease of 0.00%. The mainstream manufacturers’ slice quotations have basically maintained the level of last week, with the market average remaining unchanged and no clear trend signal; From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 60 day and 3-month cycles are in the high range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range. The price oscillates and consolidates in the high range, and there is no bullish buying signal in the moving average system where the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average. In the short term, it mainly operates in a volatile manner.
2、 Cost analysis
The upstream supply of adiponitrile and hexamethylenediamine is stable, and the raw material prices fluctuate narrowly without significant fluctuations. There is a certain bottom support on the cost side, but the upward driving force is insufficient. Under the current slicing price, the industry still faces pressure to incur losses, and some companies have the demand to reduce production to maintain prices. However, the loose supply of raw materials has not substantially changed, and the cost side is difficult to drive PA66 prices to break through.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the production of PA66 equipment in China remains at a moderate level, with sufficient supply of sliced goods. There is still pressure on market circulation inventory, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to stabilize prices. However, the competition pressure for spot shipments still exists, and there is significant resistance to actively pulling up prices. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as modification, injection molding, and textile airbag silk have not seen a significant increase in production. Terminal factories insist on purchasing on demand and purchasing as needed, with insufficient willingness to stock up in large quantities. The basic support for demand has been formed, but there is a lack of incremental order release. Under the game of supply and demand, the market lacks upward driving force, and the market maintains a high level of sideways observation.
4、 Short term forecast
The short-term PA66 spot market is likely to continue its high volatility pattern. The fundamentals of loose raw materials and abundant spot supply are difficult to reverse quickly, and the conditions for a significant increase in the market are not yet met; The current price is at a high level in a 60 day, 3-month cycle, with limited room for upward movement. However, the expected reduction in production caused by industry losses provides some support for downward space, and the space for deep decline is limited. The price is likely to fluctuate and consolidate within the range of 18800-19500 yuan/ton. The focus will be on tracking the maintenance dynamics of upstream equipment and the fulfillment of downstream autumn and winter orders in the future.

The domestic formic acid market showed a sideways trend after the holiday. On October 9th, the benchmark price of formic acid was 2100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and then the price stabilized.
The upward trend is driven by the supply side: manufacturers have the willingness to raise prices, but lack the ability to continuously pull up prices
The thrust comes from the supply side. During the holiday period, mainstream manufacturers stopped selling goods at low prices, and on October 8th, prices stabilized at around 2000 yuan/ton; After the holiday, production enterprises actively raised their prices to stimulate downstream procurement, driving up the average transaction price on October 9th. The inventory structure also corresponds to this action: the median inventory of production enterprises is higher, and the social inventory in the circulation process is relatively low.
Horizontal trading is the baseline scenario, and breakthrough requires the emergence of new variables on the demand or supply side
The demand side is the most direct constraint on current prices. Terminal orders are scattered, and downstream acceptance of 2100 yuan/ton is generally limited; The manufacturer has publicly raised prices, but lacks the motivation to proactively negotiate, making sideways trading the most likely scenario.
Overall, this round of price increase is a one-time price displacement caused by supply side push ups, with a short-term trend of sideways consolidation. The price of 2100 yuan/ton is close to the acceptable upper limit downstream. The future trend may be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Core viewpoint
This week, the domestic imported potassium chloride market showed a trend of “high opening, low decline, and downward shift in focus”. Affected by historical high levels of port and social inventory, as well as weak downstream stocking intentions after holidays, market prices are under pressure and declining. As of October 9th, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) was 3333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the beginning of the month. The current market supply and demand contradiction is prominent, and the confidence in upstream price increases is fading. It is expected that the market will maintain weak and stable operation in the short term, and there is still room for negotiation in actual transactions.
2、 Market data review
Price trend: The price of imported potassium chloride remained at a high level of 3350.00 yuan/ton from October 3rd to 7th, but experienced a cliff like decline on October 8th, directly breaking through multiple moving averages and falling to 3333.33 yuan/ton, which lasted until the 9th. This’ stepped ‘downward trend indicates a rapid weakening of market sentiment after the holiday.
3、 Deep analysis of driving factors
1. Supply side: Severe inventory backlog and risk of inventory expansion
The current abundant supply of potassium chloride in China is the core factor that suppresses prices. As of October 8th, the inventory of potassium chloride at the port reached 4.41 million tons, an increase of 60000 tons from last week and a significant increase of 2.57 million tons year-on-year. The huge inventory barrier lake has caused local ports to experience inventory pressure, and upstream cargo holders have a strong willingness to ship. In order to recover funds, they have to lower their expectations for high prices and even compete for shipments.
2. Demand side: Delayed post holiday stocking and lack of centralized purchasing power
The stocking actions of downstream compound fertilizer factories and agricultural terminals after the holiday were significantly slower than expected. Faced with high inventory levels and uncertain future prospects, downstream companies generally adopt a “buy as you go” strategy, with extremely weak willingness to stockpile in large quantities. Lack of centralized purchase order support has led to sluggish market trading and forced a shift in the focus of transactions.
3. Mentality: Confidence in rising prices fades, bearish sentiment spreads
With the downward trend in prices and the accumulation of inventory, the confidence of market participants has been hit. The shift of upstream manufacturers from “firm pricing” before the holiday to “active shipment” has further exacerbated the weak market situation.
4、 Future outlook and risk warning
Trend prediction: In the short term, the potassium chloride market is difficult to break free from the fundamental constraints of “high inventory and weak demand”. Although the current price is in the historical low range and may trigger some chassis copying intervention, the possibility of a significant rebound in price is extremely low until inventory is effectively depleted. It is expected that the market will mainly operate weakly and steadily in the near future, and there may be slight downward pressure on actual transaction prices.
Key variables: It is necessary to closely monitor the turnover rate of port inventory and changes in the operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer plants. If production restrictions are introduced in the future or if there is a sudden concentrated release of fertilizer demand in autumn, it may provide temporary support for prices.

This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China experienced a significant decline, with an average market price of 409890 yuan/ton on October 1st and 393490 yuan/ton as of October 9th, a decrease of 4.00%.
On October 8th, the first trading day after the holiday, the spot price surged to 415240 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.31%; On October 9th, the market experienced a significant drop, with prices falling back to 393490 yuan/ton, a single day drop of up to 4.00%. In the past two days, there has been a sharp reversal of the market trend, with a single day drop significantly greater than the pre holiday increase.
Macro analysis
The core driving force behind this round of sharp decline is the concentrated correction of macro expectations. Firstly, the revenue realization signal of overseas AI computing power leaders did not meet the extremely optimistic expectations of the market, leading to a comprehensive weakening of technology stocks and semiconductor sectors, and a cooling and reassessment of the demand narrative for tin as a “computing metal” in the market. Secondly, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting released a hawkish signal, indicating that there is still a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year. The US dollar index climbed to a nearly one-and-a-half-year high, forming a systematic valuation suppression on metals denominated in US dollars. Thirdly, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to ferment, international oil prices rise, energy inflation stickiness and concerns about global industrial activity slowdown are heating up simultaneously, and the risk aversion of funds has significantly increased, further suppressing risky assets.
The following is a fundamental analysis:
The rigid constraints on the supply side and mining side are still present. The progress of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar is lower than expected, and the current level of resuming production in the Manxiang tin mine is about 40% -50% of before the mining ban, with full recovery or postponement until 2027; Although Indonesia’s export quota has been raised, the actual increase is limited. The processing fee for domestic tin concentrate remains at a historical low (about 18000 yuan/ton for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan), and smelting profits are suppressed, making it difficult to significantly release refined tin production.
Inventory side – significant differentiation between internal and external factors. LME tin inventory has dropped to a historical low of 4405 tons, while domestic social inventory was about 9194 tons before the holiday, showing a pattern of “tight overseas and sufficient domestic”, and the overall supply and demand are in a weak balance state.
Demand side – structural differentiation intensifies. The expansion of semiconductor packaging and HBM storage production still drives up the amount of solder used, but the domestic semiconductor sector continues to weaken after the holiday, coupled with the negative contribution of photovoltaic modules to tin consumption of about 4882 tons per year. The performance of traditional consumer sectors in the peak season is not as expected, and downstream acceptance of high prices has significantly decreased, resulting in insufficient willingness to receive high-level goods.
comprehensive analysis
Overall, tin prices are facing a game between “macro suppression and strengthening” and “low inventory at the mining end to support the bottom” in the short term. At the macro level, doubts about AI investment returns and the high level of the US dollar pose upward pressure; At the fundamental level, rigid constraints at the mining end and low LME inventory provide bottom support, but high domestic inventory and lower than expected demand realization weaken upward elasticity. The expected operating range for the short-term Shanghai tin main contract is 380000-405000 yuan/ton, with core focus variables including the pace of macro sentiment recovery, the actual progress of Myanmar’s resumption of production, and the degree of fulfillment of domestic demand during the “Silver Ten” peak season.