According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has shown a weak and stable trend recently. As of April 20th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month and decreased by 17.65% year-on-year.
The fundamental supply is sufficient, and the manufacturer has lowered the quotation
The supply of formic acid has always been sufficient, with stable supply sources. Although there has been no shortage of supply, the overall upward momentum is lacking, and the support for prices is weak. This is also one of the core factors that make it difficult for prices to recover. At the same time, although the overall inventory of the industry has been supported by a low level, with the recent flat demand, the market inventory has shown a cumulative trend, further exacerbating the downward pressure on prices.
The demand side performance is flat, and the purchasing willingness of domestic downstream enterprises is weak, mainly focusing on obtaining goods for essential needs. There has been no large-scale centralized procurement behavior, making it difficult to effectively drive prices; In terms of exports, most of the orders are delivered in the early stage, and there are few new orders added, which cannot provide strong support for the market situation. The wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market continued to heat up after the early price reduction, causing manufacturers to slow down their shipping pace and increasing inventory pressure on enterprises, further driving down prices.
Some manufacturers have made early preparations to cope with the upcoming May Day holiday, while taking advantage of the current profitable window to grab more orders and actively lowering their quotations, which has become an important driving factor for the slight decline in initial prices.
It is expected that the price of formic acid will continue to remain weakly stable.

1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the 17th, copper prices were reported at 102035 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.2% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 34.05%.
Copper weekly fluctuation chart
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have risen slightly this week, with a decrease of 7 and an increase of 6 in the past three months.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 400225 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 0.27% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the achievement of the ceasefire agreement is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for market sentiment. It directly alleviated the extreme concerns of the market about the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a decline in crude oil prices and thereby reducing the cost pressure on industrial metals. The US dollar index continued its 9 consecutive declines, further providing upward momentum for metals priced in US dollars.
Supply side: The global decline in copper ore grades is a long-term structural problem, and the decline in production in major producing areas such as Chile has become a fact. More importantly, the copper concentrate processing fee (TC) has fallen to negative values (-78 USD/dry ton), which means that smelters are losing money for every ton of electrolytic copper produced, inevitably forcing them to lower their operating rates and tighten the supply of refined copper from the source. The sulfur shortage concerns caused by the situation in the Middle East are becoming a new variable affecting supply. Large wet copper producing countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo are highly dependent on imported sulfuric acid. Once the supply is disrupted, it will directly restrict the global production of electrolytic copper.
On the demand side: Although the domestic GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter and the contribution rate of domestic demand increased, the specific copper consumption showed insufficient momentum. The real estate market remains sluggish and difficult to form an effective driving force; And the photovoltaic sector has also brought negative news, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.60% in solar cell production in March. The weakness of traditional pillar industries has led to a lack of solid buyers for high copper prices.
New energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing industries such as AI computing power and robots have maintained a high level of prosperity. China Minmetals Corporation predicts that refined copper consumption in China will continue to maintain an average annual growth rate of 3.7% in the next decade, with this increase mainly coming from these new quality production areas. However, the incremental growth in emerging fields is not yet sufficient to fully offset the decline in traditional real estate infrastructure, and is extremely sensitive to prices.
In summary, mining interference and potential sulfur shortages have established a solid cost floor, and Citibank’s increase in target price to $13000 reflects the consensus of institutions on long-term shortages, which limits the potential for deep price declines. But in the context of weak spot premiums and less than expected destocking, the rise in copper prices is also limited. Copper prices are currently in a subtle ‘high volatility period’. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level.

According to the Business Society Spot News, in the first half of April, the propylene glycol market showed a trend of “rising and then falling at a high level”. At the beginning of the month, the price rose sharply, but under the dual pressure of cost collapse and weakened supply and demand, it slightly decreased in the second half. As of April 16th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong was 11433 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 10.65% in half a month.
fundamental analysis
Supply and demand situation
Supply side: Some domestic propylene glycol units have completed maintenance, and the operating rate has rebounded. However, the overall supply is still tight, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. The spot market supply is tight.
Demand side: Downstream unsaturated resin demand remains stable, but at high prices, downstream customers tend to be cautious in receiving goods, mainly purchasing small orders for essential needs, resulting in limited overall demand growth. The spot market for polyether polyols continues to operate weakly, with sufficient supply and some manufacturers promoting orders at lower prices, resulting in a lack of overall follow-up willingness. The demand for lithium battery electrolyte solvents still has some support, and long-term orders are relatively stable, but high prices have a certain inhibitory effect on spot purchases.
Weakened cost support
In early April, market concerns about Middle Eastern geopolitics and rising oil prices pushed up epoxy propane, which in turn led to speculative increases in propylene glycol; In mid April, the geopolitical risk margin eased, epoxy propane supply resumed, and market sentiment turned cautious. Epoxy propane was the first to rebound, while propylene glycol lagged behind due to tight supply and demand balance. The price of propylene glycol completely follows the cost transmission of epichlorohydrin.
Market forecast:
In the short term, it is expected that the propylene glycol market will continue to maintain a high and narrow range oscillation pattern, with a low probability of significant price increases or decreases. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of epoxy propane prices, changes in the supply side, and changes in downstream demand. If high prices continue to suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm, prices may face slight downward pressure.

Market trend
In the past week (April 8-14), the PA66 market has slowed down first and then surged, continuing to fluctuate at a high level in the first half of the week and accelerating again in the second half. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the benchmark price of PA66 has risen from 22966.67 yuan/ton on April 7th to 25100 yuan/ton on April 14th, with a cumulative increase of 20.29% since April, reaching its highest price in a year.
influencing factors
From a cost perspective, the raw material side maintained a high consolidation, and the execution price of hexamethylenediamine by NVIDIA in April has been raised to 26000 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the beginning of the year. The cost pressure is directly transmitted to PA66. Another core raw material, adipic acid, was driven by the previous rise in oil prices, with a cumulative increase of over 50% in the first quarter. Although the benchmark price of adipic acid slightly decreased by 0.63% in mid April compared to the beginning of the month, it still operated at a relatively high historical level overall. Despite the recent easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the early energy premium has been deeply embedded in the industrial chain, making it difficult for the short-term cost center to shift downwards.
From the perspective of supply and demand, there has been a recent decrease in imported goods on the supply side, with tight spot circulation in the market and strong reluctance among traders to sell. Both manufacturers and traders have overall low inventory levels. Recently, some enterprises have seen a decrease in their operating load, which has provided support for prices. On the demand side, the overall performance is weak, and the downstream textile industry has a low acceptance of high prices. They generally adopt the strategy of “small order demand, on-demand procurement”, with few large purchases and insufficient trading activity, forming a stalemate pattern of “supply side control and demand suppression”.
Future forecast
In the short term, the PA66 market is expected to maintain high volatility, and there is limited room for a significant unilateral price increase in the short term. The strong cost support and weak demand form a game, and the price trend will highly depend on changes in raw materials and the recovery progress of downstream orders. If there is no significant improvement in terminal demand, high prices or suppression of production will lead to the continuation of the “price but no market” situation.

With the easing of the situation in the Middle East and the disappearance of crude oil premiums, domestic PTA prices have rapidly rebounded in recent times. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 14th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.79% from a week ago.
The cost side remains the core driving factor, and crude oil fluctuations directly affect market sentiment. On April 8th, the international crude oil market experienced an epic plunge, with WTI and Brent crude oil both falling below the $100/barrel integer mark. WTI’s daily decline exceeded 16%. The core driving force was the temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the rapid recovery of the expected navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the accumulation of US crude oil inventories exceeding expectations. The market concentrated on clearing the previous geopolitical risk premium, and crude oil and refined oil futures fell sharply simultaneously. At present, there is a slight rebound in the repair.
In April, the industry entered the spring maintenance stage, with leading enterprises gradually shutting down their facilities. The industry’s operating rate has fallen to around 80%, and domestic PTA facilities have entered large-scale maintenance. Domestic supply expectations have decreased, and the performance of the supply side is relatively strong. Inventory has entered the destocking channel, and the tight supply of raw materials in April continues. Some units may still undergo unplanned maintenance, and the tight circulation of spot goods provides support for prices. And there was no new PTA production capacity added throughout the year, and the pressure of long-term supply easing disappeared.
On the demand side, the performance is relatively weak. Currently, the textile industry is in a traditional off-season with insufficient foreign trade orders. The weaving operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continues to operate at a low level, and the accumulation of finished products and rigid demand procurement in the polyester sector are the main factors, which has formed a significant negative feedback on high priced PTA and restricted the upward space of prices. But with the steady increase in production in industries such as soft drinks and the gradual digestion of previous stockpiling, demand will moderately recover. From May to June, we are gradually entering the traditional peak consumption season, and the demand for replenishing inventory is expected to be released. The supply-demand structure may enter a tight balance state. But if raw material prices continue to run at high levels, downstream purchasing intentions may still be suppressed, and there is uncertainty about the extent of demand improvement.
Looking at the future, according to the Business Society Spot News, the current PTA 10 day moving average is below the 20 day moving average, indicating a downward trend.
In terms of location, it has been at a low level in the past 30 days, but at a medium high level in the past year, indicating that PTA prices may experience a downward trend. We still need to pay close attention to the maintenance progress of PTA units, the trend of crude oil, and the recovery of downstream peak seasons.