In the past week (October 21-27), the domestic PA66 market has maintained a horizontal and volatile pattern, with mainstream ex factory quotes remaining basically unchanged. The average spreads on the 5th, 10th, and 20th have all returned to zero, with no clear long short signals. The market volatility is minimal, and trading is light, mainly consisting of long order deliveries and sporadic rigid demand transactions.
cost analysis
The prices of upstream adiponitrile and hexamethylenediamine remained stable this week, without significant fluctuations. The cost side formed a bottom support, but the upward momentum was insufficient. At the current slicing price, the industry’s production profit margin is limited, and the cost side does not have the conditions to drive prices to continue rising. The risk of unilateral fluctuations in raw materials has not yet emerged.
Supply and demand analysis
In terms of supply, the mainstream PA66 production facilities in China have maintained a moderate level of operation, and the supply of sliced goods is sufficient, but the pressure of circulating inventory still exists; At the same time, the newly-built production capacity of 80000 tons of PA66 in Suizibo is approaching production, and the expected increase in supply continues to suppress the market’s upward space. Major factories have a strong willingness to stabilize prices, but there is insufficient motivation to actively raise prices. The demand side is clearly differentiated, with relatively stable orders for high-end industrial fibers such as airbag filaments and tire curtain fabrics, forming a certain level of support; The follow-up of downstream orders for modified injection molding and ordinary nylon textile is weak, and end enterprises are cautious about high-level raw materials, generally insisting on on-demand procurement and small order replenishment according to demand, lacking centralized replenishment drive.
Short term forecast for the future market
Short term PA66 is likely to continue its high volatility trend, with a 60 day cycle price at a high level and limited upward potential; The one-year cycle is at a medium low level, with long-term upward potential, but limited impact on short-term market conditions. If there is no significant increase in upstream raw materials or concentrated replenishment of downstream inventory, the unilateral upward trend is difficult to realize. It is necessary to focus on tracking the pace of new production capacity deployment and changes in downstream auto parts and industrial silk orders.

This week, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region has risen. As of October 23, the average market price in Henan region was 8350 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 8225 yuan/ton on October 17, an increase of 1.52%.
This week, the market for cryolite has been operating strongly, with enterprise cryolite prices rising. Although the price of upstream fluorite has been narrowly lowered, it is still relatively high, providing strong support for the cost of cryolite; Downstream purchases of high priced cryolite are mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable; The tight spot market on the supply side and the low inventory pressure on manufacturers have driven up the price of cryolite. As of October 23rd, the ex factory price of cryolite in Shandong region is 8000-8800 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is 8000-9000 yuan/ton.
The upstream fluorite market is weakly consolidating, with an average market price of 3668.75 yuan/ton as of October 23, a decrease of 0.34% compared to the price of 3681.25 yuan/ton on October 17. The domestic fluorite industry is affected by mining control measures, resulting in a low operating rate and tight supply of market goods, which provides strong support for fluorite prices. Some mining companies have made slight concessions, leading to a decrease in actual transactions.
Market forecast: The upstream operating rate of cryolite is not high, and the raw material support is relatively strong; The downstream electrolytic aluminum industry’s orders are improving, providing strong support for the shipment of cryolite enterprises; At the same time, the spot market is relatively tight, and the fundamentals in the market are optimistic. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to operate at a high level in the later stage, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.

机翻 · 通用领域
This week, the domestic light rare earth market price trend has declined. On October 22, the rare earth index was 642 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 36.25% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 136.90% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015.
This week, the prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide in China have all declined. As of the weekend, the price of neodymium oxide was 760000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98%; The price of neodymium metal is 940000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% in price; The price of praseodymium oxide is 757500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% in price; The price of praseodymium metal is 987500 yuan/ton, with a price trend decline of 1.0%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 892500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11% in price; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 730000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% in price.
This week, the domestic light rare earth market prices have declined, and the prices of core products have also decreased. The main reason for this round of decline is the loosening of the supply side margin, and the abundance of spot goods has suppressed prices; In addition, after the demand side became sluggish, there was a significant decrease in purchasing willingness due to the lack of supply.
1、 Supply side: Marginal loosening, abundant spot prices suppressing prices
The spot supply of light rare earths has shown marginal looseness during the same period, weakening price support. Myanmar is an important source of rare earth imports for China. In September, the amount of unlisted rare earth oxide imported from Myanmar by China surged from 1346 tons in August to 3509 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month, accounting for 70% of the total amount of similar imports for the month. Myanmar mines are an important source of supplementary raw materials for light rare earths, and the phased recovery of their supply directly increases the looseness of the spot market. Recently, some holders of goods have stopped raising prices and instead offered to sell at lower prices in exchange for liquidity. At the same time, some of the previously unsold praseodymium neodymium spot goods have also begun to flow into the market, which has eased the short-term supply-demand contradiction to some extent, but has directly suppressed prices.
2、 Demand side: After the holiday, there will be a shortage of supply and demand, and the willingness to purchase will significantly shrink
Before the National Day holiday, downstream magnetic material companies conducted a round of centralized replenishment, but after the holiday, terminal orders did not keep up, leading to a “demand gap period” in the market. The release of terminal demand fell short of expectations, and the demand release of major downstream industries such as new energy and motors was slower than expected. As a result, magnetic material companies generally turned to on-demand replenishment, and their willingness to stock up on a large scale was not strong. Pre holiday replenishment overdraft, post holiday focus on digesting inventory: Magnetic material companies have completed phased replenishment in the early stage, and downstream mainly consume existing inventory after the holiday. The growth rate of new purchase orders has significantly slowed down, and the overall demand for magnetic materials for mid-range variable frequency air conditioners and other household appliances is weak.

In the short term, the rare earth market continues to operate weakly. The recent decline in light rare earths is the result of a mismatch in demand pace after the holiday, a recovery in supply margins, and a cooling market sentiment. Cost support determines that the slope of price decline is relatively gentle, rather than a rapid decline. The key to stabilizing in the future lies in whether the new orders of magnetic material enterprises can be effectively released within the traditional stocking window in the fourth quarter, and whether the import rhythm of overseas raw materials such as Myanmar will be disturbed again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.

1、 Price trend
As of October 22, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China is 6366 yuan/ton. The white carbon black market has not shown a unified upward or downward trend, but has clearly differentiated into “low-level stability of general precipitation method white carbon black, and strong operation of high-end tire grade and gas-phase method white carbon black”. In the short term, general products are still constrained by overcapacity and downstream price pressure; High end products benefit from the demand for green tires, silicone rubber, and special materials, with strong price resilience.
2、 Market analysis
The overall operating rate of the domestic white carbon black industry is about 75% -82%, and top enterprises rely on stable customers and long-term cooperative orders to ensure relatively stable device operation; Small and medium-sized enterprises mainly adjust their production load based on the order situation, and the operating level of general grade production lines is significantly lower than that of high-end specialized grades.
Upstream costs: The main costs of precipitation method white carbon black include sodium silicate, sulfuric acid, soda ash, quartz sand, as well as energy costs such as steam and electricity. Gas phase method white carbon black is more affected by methyl trichlorosilane, organic silicon monomers, and energy costs. Recently, the price of soda ash has been fluctuating at a low level, and there has been a decrease in supply and inventory depletion in some areas due to equipment maintenance. However, downstream demand is average, and the price rebound power is insufficient. The sulfuric acid market presents regional and process differentiation, and some areas are affected by maintenance, with prices being relatively strong. Overall, there has not been a significant unilateral upward trend, and the supply of raw materials such as sodium silicate and quartz sand is relatively sufficient.
Downstream demand: Tires are still the most important downstream market for white carbon black. The traditional replacement tire and all steel tire fields are generally in operation, and enterprises face high pressure on raw material and finished product inventory. The procurement strategy is mainly based on on-demand procurement and inventory control, which has a certain degree of suppression on general white carbon black. However, the demand for highly dispersed white carbon black from green tires and high-performance tires continues to grow, and the cost price difference between white carbon black and carbon black has widened, which has also increased the enthusiasm of tire enterprises to increase the amount of white carbon black. However, the adjustment of tire formula, product verification, and customer certification cycles are relatively long, and the increment brought by material substitution will not be released in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that if tire companies continue to have low production and inventory levels, it will be difficult for the demand for general white carbon black to improve significantly. In the short term, the white carbon black market will continue to have a differentiation pattern of “weak stability of general products and strong preference for high-end products”. In the fourth quarter, the cost side will provide some support for the bottom of prices, but the main factors that truly determine whether prices can rise are still the recovery of downstream demand and the strength of supply side production control.

Market Review: From October 14th to 19th, the mainstream ex factory price of regular spun PA6 chips in China remained stable at 14900 yuan/ton, and continued to maintain stability; On October 20th, the price was raised to 15000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.67%. In terms of cycle position, the 10 day, 20 day, 90 day, and one-year cycles are all in the high range, and the price has approached the annual high of 15400 yuan/ton, compressing the upward space.
Cost side: The upstream caprolactam weekly settlement price has increased, providing cost support for PA6, and the raw material side has shown a bottoming effect, which is the core driving force behind this slight increase; However, the uncertainty brought by the fluctuation of pure benzene still exists, and the driving force for further significant increases in raw materials is limited.
Supply and demand side: On the supply side, domestic caprolactam and polymerization plants are operating at a relatively stable level, and spot supply is normal. There is currently no centralized production reduction or price protection action; Downstream textile and modification factories on the demand side continue to follow up on essential needs, and with the expectation of rising raw material prices, a small amount of inventory replenishment is released. However, the sustainability of terminal orders is weak, and the willingness to pursue price increases downstream at high prices is cautious, making it difficult to form sustained bulk purchases.
Short term forecast for the future: PA6 is expected to experience strong fluctuations in the short term, with cost support remaining. However, the current price is at a high level for the year, close to the upper pressure level, and there is limited room for further upward movement. The risk of high-level pullback is gradually accumulating, and the market is more likely to show a pattern of pressure and wide range fluctuations after rising.