Aluminum prices rise in July
In July 2026, domestic aluminum ingot prices stopped falling and rebounded. As of July 30, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 23643.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.17% from the market average price of 22270 yuan/ton on July 1.
The rise in aluminum prices in July is a market driven by the resonance of multiple factors: the oversold repair caused by the significant decline in prices in the early stage has built the bottom of the market, coupled with the marginal improvement of overseas macro liquidity expectations driving prices up, and the rigid and difficult expansion of electrolytic aluminum supply, as well as the overall low inventory operation of the market, forming solid support. At the same time, downstream enterprises are replenishing inventory at low prices to further match spot demand. The overall industry fundamentals continue to tighten and tighten, effectively compressing the space for market correction.
Reasons for the rebound and rise in aluminum prices in July:
1. Macro funding benefits:
US data weakens, expectations of interest rate hikes cool down, and the US dollar falls. In July, the US CPI and non farm payroll data fell short of market expectations, and the market significantly lowered the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The real interest rate of US bonds declined, and the US dollar index weakened. Aluminum is priced in US dollars, and Lunan Aluminum is the first to repair its valuation, driving Shanghai Aluminum to strengthen synchronously; Funds have shifted from fixed income to commodities, and the non-ferrous sector has collectively rebounded. Low end aluminum has ushered in a capital allocation market.
In June, there was a deep oversold, with short positions concentrated on replenishing and buying funds entering the market. At the end of June, the disappearance of geopolitical premiums coupled with panic over interest rate hikes led to a concentrated sell-off in the market, with prices severely oversold and short positions accumulating. At the beginning of July, a large number of short positions were liquidated and left the market, and industrial funds were replenishing at a low level to go long, giving rise to the first wave of technical rebound market.
Positive news in the sector stimulates sentiment. Aluminum Corporation of China has launched a plan to increase its holdings by 1-2 billion yuan, coupled with the significant increase in profits reported by major electrolytic aluminum companies in the first half of the year, the valuation of the aluminum sector has been restored, and the upward momentum has been amplified.
2. Fundamental rigid support:
There is no incremental elasticity in domestic supply. Domestic electrolytic aluminum has implemented a permanent production capacity red line of 45 million tons, with a current industry operating rate close to 98% and operating capacity basically at full capacity, with no new capacity released; The proportion of direct supply of aluminum water continues to rise, and the number of circulating aluminum ingots in the market is shrinking; Combined with the expected increase in energy consumption control in various regions during the summer, there is a potential expectation of production reduction in the market, and the supply side continues to be rigid.
Overseas supply has been tight for a long time. The Middle East accounts for about 9% of the world’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity. The slow resumption of production capacity caused by previous geopolitical conflicts has resulted in a restart cycle of several months for smelting facilities, which cannot make up for the supply gap in the short term. Geopolitical risks have repeatedly brought premium support. European electricity prices have remained high for a long time, and local aluminum plants have maintained regular production cuts; The production and ramp up progress of new overseas production capacity is slow, and the overall global supply increment is very limited. LME aluminum inventory has fallen to a nearly four-year low, with Russian aluminum accounting for over 90% of warehouse receipts. Due to the impact of sanctions, circulation is restricted, and real deliverable spot goods are scarce. Foreign spot goods continue to be held at high prices.
3. Abnormal destocking during the off-season and strengthening of spot fundamentals:
Traditionally, July belongs to the off-season for aluminum consumption, but the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China continues to steadily decrease, breaking the seasonal accumulation pattern and causing a tight supply of spot goods; The inventory of the previous period fell synchronously, and the spot premium rose, providing solid bottom support to the market and preventing prices from weakening again.

4. Demand resilience exceeds expectations, downstream low-level replenishment to support the bottom:
Traditional building profiles are weakening during the off-season, but the demand for photovoltaics, lightweight new energy vehicles, and ultra-high voltage power grids remains stable, offsetting the weakness of traditional consumption. Aluminum export data remains high, with overseas orders forming external demand to support the bottom; After the sharp drop in aluminum prices, downstream processing plants concentrated on stocking up and purchasing at low prices, and spot buying increased, driving transaction recovery.
Aluminum price forecast for the future:
In August, the electrolytic aluminum market relied on rigid production capacity constraints, phased supply contraction at home and abroad, sustained destocking during the off-season, and macro liquidity marginal easing to form a stable bottom support. Coupled with downstream pre stocking during peak season and hedging against traditional consumption off-season demand for new energy, the overall market maintained a high and strong operation; However, due to the weak performance of terminal spot prices during the off-season, expectations of the National Reserve’s reserve sales regulation, and pressure from previous bullish profit realization, prices are difficult to break out of a continuous unilateral upward trend, showing an overall trend of range oscillation and upward movement. The center of gravity of the operation steadily shifts upward, and the space for correction is very limited.

At the beginning of July, relying on a slight rebound in crude oil and the early entry of PX units into maintenance cycles, PTA fluctuated upwards and continued to rise in the middle and late stages. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushed Brent crude oil to break through $100 per barrel; At the same time, domestic and Asian PX major overhauls have been concentrated, and the operating rate of Asian PX has fallen to a low of 56.6% this year; PTA’s own multiple large factories have synchronously stopped production, with the industry’s lowest operating rate dropping to 53% to 57%, and port spot goods continue to be depleted. Although there was a slight correction at the end of the month, it was later stopped and repaired under the support of crude oil and low inventory. As of July 29th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6017 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.15% from the beginning of the month.
In July, the million ton PX plant underwent centralized maintenance, and the tightening of supply led to a strengthening of PX quotations; Combined with the disturbance of the US Iran conflict, the cost side is supported by favorable factors. In addition, the main PTA facilities were shut down in July, causing monthly production to drop to the lowest point of the year. Social inventory and factory raw material inventory continued to decline. However, the downstream is in the traditional off-season for textiles, with a high temperature off-season in July and a weaving machine operating rate of only about 59%. The finished product inventory of polyester factories is high, and the end users have no intention of actively hoarding goods, only maintaining sporadic purchases for essential needs, dragging down the PTA market. Combined with the expectation of centralized restart of PTA maintenance facilities, a total of 10 million ton PTA facilities are planned to resume production from the end of July to early August. The expectation of loose supply has led to capital taking profits and leaving, causing a rapid drop at the end of the month.
In the future, analysts believe that the short-term PTA maintenance will be completed and the production of facilities will gradually resume, which will slightly relax the supply. However, the pace of PX facility resumption will be slower, and the PX shortage pattern will continue, with costs still providing a bottom line for prices; Combined with the low inventory after the previous destocking, it is difficult for prices to experience a deep decline. With the concentrated replenishment of autumn and winter fabrics in the textile industry starting in late August, the downstream polyester production rate will steadily rise, and the marginal improvement on the demand side will be achieved; Although PTA supply has recovered, the downstream demand growth rate will temporarily exceed the supply growth rate, and the industry will return to a tight balance. The price focus is expected to shift moderately again. We still need to pay attention to the changes in the geopolitical situation of Middle East crude oil, the progress of PX maintenance and restart, and the landing of downstream weaving autumn and winter orders.

Polyethylene showed a pattern of first rising and then fluctuating at a high level in mid to late July. LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 7308 yuan/ton on July 1st and 8198 yuan/ton on July 28th, an increase of 12.18%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9266 yuan/ton on July 1st and 10383 yuan/ton on July 28th, an increase of 12.05%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 9837 yuan/ton on July 1st and 10450 yuan/ton on July 28th, an increase of 6.23%.
The situation between the United States and Iran has repeatedly disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing international crude oil to fluctuate and strengthen, providing strong cost support for polyethylene. However, the uncertainty of oil price fluctuations is significant, making it difficult to sustain a unilateral upward trend in prices and limiting the upward space of the market.
The supply side presents a short-term tight and long-term loose pattern. In early July, the maintenance of multiple sets of equipment dragged down the industry’s construction, and the continuous destocking of ports provided market support. In the second half of the year, the maintenance equipment will gradually resume production, and the subsequent increase in supply will be evident. Long term new production capacity investment continues to limit upward space.
July is the traditional off-season for polyethylene demand, which has become the main suppressing factor in the market. The demand for agricultural film has fallen into a gap, and downstream industries such as packaging and injection molding have been affected by high temperatures, resulting in weak production. The profitability of downstream products is poor, and the procurement maintains a on-demand procurement model, making it difficult for the price increase of raw materials to be smoothly transmitted downwards.
Short term polyethylene is unlikely to rise sharply unilaterally, with a high probability of wide fluctuations at high levels. If crude oil does not further rise significantly, driven by the lack of centralized stocking orders, there is limited room for further upward movement.

On July 27th, the average market price in East China was 420180 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.07% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 419000-421000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 420180 yuan/ton, an increase of 8510 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.
In the morning session, the overall trend of Shanghai tin futures showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the basis structure of contracts in the near and far months changed from premium to discount; After entering the second trading session, the volatility of the market significantly narrowed.
As the center of gravity of tin prices continues to shift upwards, smelters generally adhere to the strategy of raising prices, resulting in a shortage of spot circulation in the market. The current macro level uncertainty has converged, providing support for the operation of tin prices; But after the price rose, the market’s wait-and-see sentiment towards high prices continued to ferment, and downstream terminal purchases were generally cautious, resulting in significant limitations on the actual shipment volume of traders. From the consumer side, the current industry’s daily average demand orders are average, and some end users have weakened their consumption intensity. It is expected that the short-term consumer activity will remain low.
At the macro level, tin prices show a neutral bearish impact, with strong US dollars and high interest rates suppressing high valuations of non-ferrous metals. The market’s risk appetite tends to be cautious before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting. In terms of fundamentals, the tin warehouse receipts of the previous period continued to decline, LME tin inventory continued to decline, and domestic and foreign inventories simultaneously contracted, forming a bottom support for tin prices; The spot premium remains stable, and there has been no significant chasing behavior in the spot market.
Overall, tin prices are expected to maintain a high volatility pattern: the continued depletion of inventory will limit the potential for price declines, while macro pressures will constrain the height of rebound.
Today’s market report shows that small brand products have a premium price range of 500 to 900 yuan/ton for August, while cloud products have a premium price range of approximately 900 to 1200 yuan/ton for August, and cloud tin products have a premium price range of around 1200 to 1500 yuan/ton for August.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices first rose and then fell. As of July 24th, copper prices were reported at 105261.67 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the beginning of the week and up 31.87% year-on-year.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 281425 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 4.69% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the escalation of the US Iran conflict has pushed up oil prices and reignited concerns about inflation; The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has increased (the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 83%); The US dollar index rose to 101.5, and the 10Y US bond interest rate rose to 4.70%; AI chip stocks were sold off, dragging down copper prices.
Supply side: The winter storm in Chile has led to the shutdown of Codelco’s main mines and Caserones mines, exacerbating the shortage of mines. Copper concentrate TC fell to a historical low of -141.5 US dollars per ton, with approximately 16% of global smelting capacity idle. China’s sulfuric acid exports have plummeted by 99.2%, and scrap copper is subject to invoicing restrictions. There is a risk of downward revision in the production guidance of multiple mining companies, leading to a comprehensive tightening of supply.
On the demand side: In June, China’s actual demand increased by 13% year-on-year, with power grid investment of 620 billion yuan, new energy vehicle penetration rate exceeding 40%, and structural growth driven by AI data centers. However, during the off-season of traditional consumption, white goods have weakened, demand differentiation is obvious, and overall resilience still exceeds expectations.
In summary, the winter storm in Chile combined with TC falling to historical lows has led to a comprehensive tightening of supply from mining to smelting; Although the demand side is in the traditional off-season, the resilience supported by the power grid and AI infrastructure has resulted in supply contraction far exceeding the decline in demand, exacerbating the mismatch between supply and demand and continuously reducing inventory. Under the pattern of low inventory and tight spot prices, copper prices are strongly supported, and copper prices are expected to hit high levels within the year. However, caution should be exercised against the risk of a pullback caused by COMEX inventory release and macroeconomic disturbances.