This week, there has been a continuous shortage of overseas supply, with high prices of acrylonitrile in foreign markets and continued support for exports. Domestic consumption continues to decrease, and spot purchases are insufficient, resulting in poor transactions. The price trend of raw material propylene is strong, and the cost push has led to a slight increase in acrylonitrile prices. As of May 8th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 10900-11100 yuan/ton, which is 100 yuan/ton higher than last week’s 10800-11000 yuan/ton; Short distance delivery to Shandong market is priced at 10650-10750 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week’s price of 10550-10650 yuan/ton.
Supply increase:
Within the week, CNOOC’s 200000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant has resumed production on one line. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has increased, leading to an increase in supply. According to statistics, as of May 7th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 65.12%, an increase of 1.11% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 76000 tons, which is+0.13 million tons compared to the previous cycle. During the week, supply remained low and inventory levels fluctuated, but overall it remained controllable. According to statistics, as of May 6th, the total inventory was around 48000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Decreased domestic demand:
This week, downstream users are resistant to high raw material prices, and the overall utilization rate of production capacity in major industries has declined. The utilization rate of ABS production capacity was 57.45%, which was -2.75% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 24.95%, which is 10.88% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 57.21%, which was -0.23% compared to last week. Overall, the demand for acrylonitrile has decreased and consumption continues to decrease.
Cost increase:
During the week, the price of raw material propylene rose sharply, leading to an increase in costs, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly increased, resulting in a narrowing of theoretical profits and worsening of production losses. According to statistics, as of May 8th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 9700 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton from 9485 yuan/ton last week. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 12325 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 3.79%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -1325 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of -370 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the domestic acrylonitrile market is currently in a stalemate and consolidation, the external situation is still unstable, domestic demand continues to be weak, and spot buying gas is insufficient. In addition, Liaoning’s 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant plans to shut down for 15-20 days in early June and Shanghai’s 520000 ton acrylonitrile plant will shut down for maintenance on May 7th. The overall load will decrease from 50% to 25%, and the short-term market will be mainly stabilized under the synchronous reduction of supply and demand.

1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices first rose and then fluctuated at a high level in April. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 96953.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose to 101498.33 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 4.69% and a year-on-year increase of 31%.
In the first half of April, the spot price of copper was higher than the futures price, and the main contract was the expected price two months later, causing copper prices to rise; In the second half of the month, futures prices were higher than spot prices, with weak upward momentum.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory first rose and then fell in April. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 399725 tons, up 10.6% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve maintains its “static braking” strategy, and the April interest rate decision is in line with market expectations (keeping interest rates unchanged). However, due to inflation expectations driven by geopolitical conflicts, market expectations for interest rate cuts this year have significantly cooled down, and the high operation of the US dollar index has exerted some pressure on copper prices. The economic data for the first quarter started well, with the manufacturing PMI rising by 0.1 percentage points month on month in April, continuing to be in the expansion zone.
Supply side: Since April, TC has continued to decline and fallen into a deep negative range. TC has been negative for 16 consecutive months. In theory, smelters should reduce production on a large scale, but in reality, domestic production in China remains at a high level. The secret lies in the abundant profits from sulfuric acid by-products. Smelting one ton of copper produces about 3.5-4 tons of sulfuric acid as a byproduct. Previously, the price of sulfuric acid soared to 1760 yuan/ton (a year-on-year increase of 204%), allowing pyrometallurgical plants to maintain production under the “inverted” processing fee.
Due to the accelerated erosion of furnace lining by high sulfur ore, the maintenance that was originally scheduled for July and August has been advanced to the second quarter. In April, 8 smelters have entered the maintenance period, and it is expected that a total of 13 smelters have maintenance plans, affecting a total output of about 224000 tons. The estimated production of electrolytic copper in April is 1.1731 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the previous month and an increase of 4.2% year-on-year. Under the background of tight copper concentrate and smelting losses, the maintenance efforts may exceed expectations.
Downstream: Downstream processing enterprises have a clear fear of high copper prices and tend to adopt rigid procurement, resulting in weak new orders and a market dominated by long orders. But the performance of the power sector is impressive – the growth rate of power grid investment is strong (79.84% year-on-year growth in January and February), and power investment has increased by 32.35% year-on-year, which is the biggest support direction for domestic copper consumption. The predicted operating rate of cable companies is 72.63%, setting a new high for the year. In terms of household appliances, the total production of the three major white goods in April was 37.64 million units, a decrease of 3.6% compared to the same period last year. The performance in the real estate sector has been lackluster, with limited impact on copper consumption. The export momentum of the “new three types” represented by photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries is strong. The proportion of copper demand in emerging fields is expected to reach about 25.44% in 2026, driving about 810000 tons of copper demand, including 280000 tons driven by new energy vehicles (a year-on-year increase of 16%), 270000 tons driven by AI data centers (a year-on-year increase of 31%), 110000 tons driven by energy storage (a year-on-year increase of 58%), 80000 tons driven by photovoltaics (a year-on-year increase of 3%), and 70000 tons driven by wind power (a year-on-year increase of 12%). The construction of AI computing power centers and the expansion of PCB production have opened up new growth opportunities for copper consumption.

In summary, from May to June, domestic smelters entered a period of intensive maintenance, coupled with the continuous contraction pressure of overseas wet smelting, the release of refined copper production was limited, and the slowdown in supply growth rate will support copper prices. Since May, China has restricted the export of sulfuric acid, which may lead to a drop in sulfuric acid prices and compress smelting profits. If the by-product income significantly decreases, it will strengthen the expectation of smelting plants reducing production and form structural support for copper prices. After the peak season of “Silver IV”, there may be a seasonal decline in demand intensity, but the high investment in power infrastructure continues, and the demand for copper for AI computing power center construction is still increasing. Domestic inventory depletion remains the core observation indicator for short-term price support. Looking ahead to the trend in May and the second quarter, it is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level.

The market for polyaluminum chloride rose in April, with China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market reporting around 1811.67 yuan/ton on the 30th and 1745 yuan/ton on the 1st, up 1.45%.
In the production cost of polyaluminum chloride, raw materials such as alumina and hydrochloric acid account for over 60%, and the upstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated in April; The hydrochloric acid market has experienced periodic price increases due to adjustments in the operating rate of chlor alkali enterprises, which has provided cost support for the overall price of polyaluminum chloride.
In April, we entered the peak season for traditional water treatment demand, with the upgrading and renovation of municipal sewage treatment plants, an increase in the operating rate of industrial wastewater treatment projects, and the release of downstream procurement needs. Especially in the field of drinking water treatment, the demand for high-quality polyaluminum chloride with alumina content ≥ 28% remains stable. The order volume of top water plants has increased month on month, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers has eased, resulting in an increased willingness to quote.
Market forecast: Some chlor alkali enterprises still have planned maintenance in May, which will limit the production of hydrochloric acid by-products; In May, the newly added alumina production capacity of approximately 4-5 million tons per year in Fangchenggang, Yulin and other places in Guangxi will enter the centralized production stage, further exacerbating the pressure of industry oversupply; Excess supply of alumina suppresses cost increases, limited room for price increases in hydrochloric acid, coupled with a lack of unexpected positive news on the demand side of the polyaluminum chloride market, the driving force for a significant increase in product prices is insufficient, and it is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern.

In April 2026, the domestic phenol market continued to decline, with the overall market briefly rising and then rapidly falling, and the price center continuously shifting downwards. The supply-demand contradiction and external factors dominated the downward trend in this round.
In April, the overall price of phenol showed a slight increase followed by a continuous bottoming out process. At the beginning of the month, it was supported by the geopolitical event of Saudi Arabia’s attack and the peak season of “Golden Three Silver Four”. In the first week, it continued to rise, with prices ranging from 9300-9700 yuan/ton, and mainstream enterprises simultaneously adjusted up their factory prices. On April 8th, crude oil and upstream pure benzene and propylene prices fell sharply, while phenol prices began to rebound. The daily decline on April 8th reached 2.24%, and on April 10th, it decreased by 2.14% compared to the beginning of the month. From mid month to the end of the month, the core regions of East China, Shandong, and South China experienced a simultaneous general decline. As of the end of the month, the mainstream domestic price remained in the range of 8800-9200 yuan/ton, with a significant decrease from the high at the beginning of the month.
（1） Cost side support collapse
The international crude oil prices plummeted sharply after running at a high level at the beginning of the month, driving down the prices of core raw materials such as pure benzene and propylene. Pure benzene fell by more than 7% in a single day, and the cost support for phenol completely collapsed, highlighting downward pressure.
（2） Weak demand side
Although there is a strong demand for downstream industries such as bisphenol A and phenolic resin, the high price of phenol has led to a sharp increase in downstream cost pressure. Enterprises have shifted their procurement to on-demand replenishment, speculative demand has disappeared, and the transmission of the industrial chain has been hindered, resulting in negative feedback.
（3） High level operation on the supply side
In April, the utilization rate of domestic phenol ketone production capacity remained at a high level of 86.0% -86.5%. Although some overseas enterprises reduced their losses, the impact on the domestic market was limited, and the stable supply intensified the pressure on circulation.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the short-term support for crude oil and raw material prices is limited, and downstream demand is difficult to recover quickly. The phenol market will continue to fluctuate weakly. There are long-term opportunities for export and high-end demand growth, but in the short term, supply-demand imbalance and weak costs remain dominant. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak in May, and attention should be paid to changes in crude oil, demand, and overseas supply.

As of April 28th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% from the zinc price of 23954 yuan/ton on April 21st.
On April 28th, it plummeted 516 yuan/ton in a single day, completely giving up this week’s gains and hitting a new low in nearly two weeks, with the largest single day decline since the rebound in March.
Fundamental and message driven
The sharp decline this time is the result of four negative resonances: firstly, the vacuum effect of pre holiday demand. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream galvanizing, die-casting, and zinc oxide enterprises have all stopped production ahead of schedule to reduce losses, and raw material procurement has basically stagnated, causing spot market trading to hit a freezing point; The second is the concentrated redemption of high-level profit taking positions. Since the rebound started in March, the cumulative increase in zinc prices has exceeded 7.5%, approaching a three-and-a-half-year high. Long positions have benefited greatly, and pre holiday safe haven exits have triggered a stampede; Thirdly, there has been a substantial reversal in the supply and demand pattern. The latest data from ILZSG shows that in February, the global shortage of refined zinc increased from 21900 tons to an excess of 49600 tons, and the expected surplus for the whole year of 2026 has been raised to 175000 tons; Fourthly, macro risk appetite has fallen, with the Federal Reserve’s May interest rate meeting approaching and the US dollar index running strong, putting overall pressure on industrial metals.
comprehensive analysis
Short term zinc prices will continue to show a weak adjustment trend. If downstream demand fails to effectively recover after May Day, the price is expected to drop by 23500 yuan/ton, and the medium-term downward target is expected to reach 23000 yuan/ton; In terms of the upward trend, it is necessary to increase volume and break through the pressure level of 24000 yuan/ton in order to reverse the short-term decline.