According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market fluctuated at a high level in early April, with prices of various brand products fluctuating. As of April 9th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing offered by Shengyi Society is 9416.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.73% compared to the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In the past March, due to geopolitical factors, the production and transportation of crude oil in the Middle East were both affected by force majeure. Combined with the firm stance of OPEC+production cuts, international oil prices have been pushed up. At present, the repeated ceasefire between the United States and Iran and the uncertainty of the situation continue to cause concerns among industry players, leading to high fluctuations in the remote cost value of PP. In the early stage of propylene production, the centralized maintenance of enterprise equipment has been implemented, and at the same time, the demand side has been steadily receiving goods. The effective supply in the market has decreased, but the digestion remains strong, and the price has risen at a high level. Although there has been a recent reduction in port arrivals for propane, overseas prices have been revised downwards at high levels, and the focus of domestic spot prices has loosened. Overall, the prices of various raw materials for PP have fluctuated, supporting high fluctuations in PP costs.
Supply side:
Entering April, domestic PP enterprises have concentrated their maintenance plans, and the overall operating rate has rapidly declined. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry is around 71%. At the end of March, the maintenance plans of 8 enterprises were gradually implemented. Recently, some companies have joined the ranks of parking maintenance, and the industry’s total loss of production capacity is at a historical high. The current weekly average total output is less than 690000 tons, and the inventory level has dropped below 700000 tons. The arrival of imported materials at the port has also significantly decreased. Overall, the supply side has strong support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by high spot prices, the overall trading atmosphere in downstream markets of the industry has been cautious recently. In March, oversold contracts and chasing orders from refineries were basically delivered, but the current transaction pace has slowed down and warehouse building operations have decreased. Buyers often use and take as you go, with scattered small orders being the main focus. Some terminal small and micro enterprises have reduced production and stopped production due to high cost pressures, while large and medium-sized enterprises have stabilized their inventory. The overall demand side is in a wait-and-see situation, with performance falling short of market expectations and average support for PP.
Future forecast
In early April, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated at a high level. Fundamentally speaking, the industry’s load position is in the historical low range, and the import of goods from ports to ports has decreased. The inventory position is further digested, but under the large production capacity base, the source of goods can still meet the supply. At present, the comprehensive support of various upstream raw materials for PP cost has fluctuated, but it is still at a high level. Therefore, the PP analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the current PP market is mainly guided by the dual guidance of cost and supply, and the pressure of high cost value still has a restraining effect on the demand of small factories. The demand increment is lower than expected and it is difficult to further digest inventory. It is recommended to closely monitor the fluctuations in the crude oil market, as this may hinder the transmission of market trends and weaken future market action.

price trend
In the past week (April 1 to April 7, 2026), the domestic PA6 market has shown an overall high volatility upward trend. In the short term, it is strongly supported by the cost side, but weak demand restricts the increase. It is expected to maintain a pattern of easy rise but difficult fall and high volatility. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of April 7th, the benchmark price of PA6 was 14600 yuan/ton, up 3.55% from 14100 yuan/ton on April 1st, continuing the upward trend and demonstrating strong market bottom support.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
International oil prices remain high due to the geopolitical situation, driving the price of pure benzene to strengthen. The supply of PA6 core raw material caprolactam is still tight, forming a sustained cost transmission for PA6. According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of caprolactam has risen from 13077.50 yuan/ton to 13357.50 yuan/ton in the past week, with a weekly increase of 2.14%.
Supply side:
Recently, the operating load of the PA6 industry has slightly increased, and the release of new production capacity and the restoration of maintenance equipment have driven supply growth.
In terms of demand:
Although the downstream terminal textile and chemical fiber industry has resumed work, its acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited. Procurement is mainly based on “replenishment of essential needs and procurement as needed”, and there has been no centralized hoarding. The trading atmosphere is cautious. The market presents a typical stalemate pattern of “strong cost support and weak demand follow-up”, with scarce low-priced sources but high price transaction resistance.
Market forecast:
Looking at the future market, it is expected that the price of PA6 will rise but not fall in the short term, but the increase will be limited. On the cost side, pure benzene and caprolactam are still expected to rise, and the support may continue to increase; And downstream stocking demand will gradually be released, which may bring temporary procurement peaks. However, if there is no significant rebound in terminal orders, it will be difficult for the demand side to form effective resonance, and the market is likely to maintain a high and narrow consolidation.

The current sulfur market is in a historic unilateral upward trend, with prices breaking through nearly a year or even historical highs. There is still room for short-term upward movement, but overbought signals have fully emerged, and caution should be exercised against the risk of high-level pullback.
Current market situation
Price trend: unilateral upward trend, repeatedly reaching new highs
According to data from Shengyi Society, as of April 7th, the benchmark price of sulfur in Shengyi Society was 6700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.73% compared to the beginning of this month (5943.33 yuan/ton).; Since the start of the uptrend in mid March, the increase has exceeded 70%, reaching a historic high.
International market: The FOB price in the Middle East is 720-740 US dollars/ton, also reaching a historical high. The cost of imported goods arriving at the port is approaching the domestic spot price, forming strong support
Behind this market trend is the resonance of multiple favorable factors:
Supply side: The tense situation in the Middle East has directly led to a reduction in imported goods. As the main source of sulfur imports, the FOB price in the Middle East has soared to $720-740 per ton, with import costs inverted, directly sealing off the space for domestic price declines.
On the demand side: downstream phosphate fertilizer and new energy industries have rigid demand, coupled with low port inventory, the market is in a typical state of “supply shortage”. The price of granular sulfur in Changjiang Port has reached 6320-6380 yuan/ton, and the domestic solid sulfur in Shandong has also remained stable at 6150-6250 yuan/ton. The spot market is booming.
Futures end: Domestic sulfur futures (such as S2605 contract) have reached 6330 yuan/ton as of April 5th, an increase of 230 yuan from the previous day. The strong performance of the futures market further boosted the bullish sentiment in the spot market.
Business Society Spot Commodity Market System Predicts Future Trends
As shown in the chart, the moving average system (yellow line represents current price, higher than the moving averages of each cycle) indicates that the current price should be above all major moving averages, in line with the “upward trend”.
However, the consecutive “super rise” warnings (20 day, 30 day, 1-year super rise) that have appeared since April 3rd in the chart are direct risk warnings from the system for short-term rapid price increases that deviate from the moving average and are at extreme historical percentiles.
System comprehensive diagnosis: The current sulfur price only meets the upward conditions in the “trend characteristics”, but seriously does not meet the conditions in the “position characteristics”. According to the system rules, this is not only a ‘buying point’, but also a strong ‘alert’ or ‘risk’ signal issued by the system. The price has entered the ‘high-risk zone’ after a sustained surge.
Future price forecast
After the price reaches a record high, the momentum for continued rapid upward movement will weaken. There is a high probability of entering a high-level oscillation phase, which means fluctuating repeatedly at the current level (such as the range of 6500-6800 yuan/ton). Be alert to any negative news (such as easing geopolitical tensions or intensifying downstream resistance) that may trigger a rapid technical correction.
In summary, the probability of sulfur prices continuing to rise sharply in the short term is low due to technical overbought and systemic risk warnings. It is expected to enter a high-level oscillation pattern and face the risk of a possible pullback at any time. The medium to long term trend is highly dependent on the geopolitical and import supply situation in the Middle East. In the current system evaluation of the ‘extremely high position’, any pursuit of heights requires extreme caution.

1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 135650 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the beginning of the week and up 5.22% year-on-year.
In the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 6 times, with recent fluctuations being the main trend.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, the ADP employment figures in the United States increased by 62000 in March, higher than the market expectation of 40000 and roughly the same as last month’s 63000. Coal, originally scheduled to be implemented on April 1, 2026. The nickel export tariff plan is still awaiting the results of joint research between the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and the Ministry of Finance.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in March was 37337 tons, an increase of 14.53% month on month and 1.83% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for April is 38830 tons, an increase of 4.00% month on month and 6.53% year-on-year.
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with better demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. In March, the stainless steel plant resumed production, but the current profit of the steel plant is low, and large-scale procurement has not yet begun after the holiday; The high price of MHP provides support for the cost of nickel sulfate, but the weak demand during the off-season is mainly due to fluctuations in nickel sulfate prices
In summary, the supply of nickel ore on the raw material side is relatively tight in reality, and the pace of supply release slows down during the Ramadan period in Indonesia; Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the shipping costs of nickel mines in the Philippines have significantly increased, and the bidding prices for Philippine mines have continued to rise. The price of high nickel pig iron is stable but slightly strong, and the supplier’s enthusiasm for price increases, but steel mills have a clear mentality of price reduction. Short term shutdown of wet process plants in Indonesia reduces short-term supply. The continuous import of resources from Russia and Indonesia, coupled with the gradual release of new production sources into the market, still puts overall pressure on the supply of refined nickel. The performance of domestic and foreign markets is differentiated, with mild destocking overseas and continued stockpiling domestically. Domestic exports continue to be hindered. Overall, Indonesia’s policy attitude is tough, macro expectations are fluctuating, and the accumulation of contradictions on the raw material side supports prices. Insufficient digestion of actual inventory remains a constraint, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8533 yuan/ton, an increase of 2500 yuan or 41.44% from March 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 6033 yuan/ton).
1、 Price Trend Review
In early March (3.1-3.10), due to the impact of the geopolitical situation, the cost side drove the rapid rise of the n-butanol market in Shandong. Mainstream factories in Shandong have significantly increased their factory prices due to cost pressures, with prices surging to 8566 yuan/ton on March 10th.
In mid March (3.11-3.19), the n-butanol market experienced a downturn. In the early stage, high prices stimulated some companies to restart their equipment, and the market supply was temporarily loose. Coupled with cautious downstream procurement, the price briefly fell to 7866 yuan/ton.
In late March (3.19-3.31), the n-butanol market continued to rise, with incomplete resumption of maintenance equipment and reduced import sources due to international logistics, resulting in a further tight supply; At the same time, the company’s inventory remains low, with a strong willingness to raise prices, pushing prices back to above 8500 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Cost side: Crude oil propylene chain skyrockets, forming rigid support
In March 2026, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East pushed up international crude oil prices, with US crude oil rising by over 39% in a single month, directly driving up the prices of upstream raw materials such as naphtha and propylene. Propylene accounts for a relatively large proportion of the production raw materials for n-butanol, so the sharp rise in raw material propylene led to a direct increase in production costs for enterprises, strengthening market expectations for price increases.
Geopolitics and Logistics: International Supply Chain Disturbance, Decreased Import Sources
The shipping efficiency in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, resulting in delays in the arrival of some imported n-butanol sources at ports. Domestic port inventories have decreased by 10% -15% month on month, and the import replenishment effect has weakened.
Due to the impact of energy costs, the operating rate of overseas facilities is insufficient, the international market supply is tight, and domestic enterprises’ export quotations are synchronously raised. The phenomenon of inverted price differences between domestic and foreign markets has eased, further supporting domestic prices.
Market supply and demand impact
The optimistic sentiment of the market towards the peak season of “Golden Three, Silver Four” has amplified the impact of changes in the supply and demand margin, driving prices to rise beyond expectations.
Future forecast
Macro and supply-demand analysis
Supply side: With the resumption of maintenance equipment, the industry’s operating rate is expected to rebound in April, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. However, if the price of raw material propylene remains high, the willingness of enterprises to operate will still be limited.
On the demand side: The traditional peak season of “Silver IV” will still support rigid demand, but downstream acceptance of high prices has reached a critical point. If prices continue to rise, there may be a wait-and-see attitude towards procurement.
Macro risk: If the situation in the Middle East eases, the pullback in crude oil prices will directly affect the cost support of propylene and n-butanol, and we need to be alert to the risk of price pullback; If the geopolitical conflict persists, the cost side will still dominate the market trend.
Technical analysis

According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society’s spot market, in early March, the 10 day moving average of n-butanol crossed the 20 day moving average, and the short-term (10 day) moving averages were all higher than the long-term (20 day) moving averages. In March, the overall market situation of n-butanol showed an upward trend. At the end of March, the 10 day moving average of n-butanol once again crossed the 20 day moving average, so it is predicted that the spot market price of n-butanol will likely continue to show an upward trend in the short term. However, auxiliary indicators show that the current price of n-butanol is at a high level among the five tiers. Therefore, the predicted price increase of n-butanol in the future is limited, and it mainly oscillates at high levels. Special attention should be paid to fluctuations in crude oil prices, equipment operation, and changes in downstream orders.