As of August 31st, the price of 0 # zinc was 26235 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.61% compared to the zinc price of 24841 yuan/ton on August 1st.
fundamentals
At the macro level, the July Federal Reserve interest rate meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the weakening of the US dollar index provided pricing support for zinc prices. However, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2% in July, and the domestic economic outlook declined, which suppressed expectations for industrial metal demand.
Supply side:
The core support of the supply side comes from the shortage of mineral resources: currently, the processing fees for domestic and imported zinc concentrates have fallen to historical negative values, with the central China region as low as -2000 yuan/metal ton. This is due to the stable resumption of production in the domestic mineral sector but a significant reduction in imported minerals, resulting in a contraction of total supply. Although spot smelting profits have turned negative, integrated enterprises rely on high mining profits to maintain production. The refined zinc production in August is expected to increase by more than 4% month on month, and only the subsequent decline in sulfuric acid prices may drive refineries to actively reduce production.
Demand side:
In August, the zinc market was in the traditional off-season of summer, with moderate to low operating rates for galvanizing and die-casting alloys. The galvanizing industry continued to suffer from negative profits, which suppressed production enthusiasm. The demand for zinc in the real estate chain was sluggish, and downstream only maintained rigid demand procurement and weak willingness to proactively stock up. Spot prices continued to be discounted, resulting in overall weak demand. At the same time, the market is playing ahead with expectations of a rebound during the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season in September and October. Based on the possibility of infrastructure development in the third quarter, bulls are laying out far month contracts in advance, forming clear expectations for marginal improvement in demand in the future.
Inventory end
Overseas (LME): LME zinc inventory fell to 93250 tons on August 22, the lowest level of the year, with a cumulative decrease of about 25% in the past two months. Overseas tradable spot goods continue to shrink, and supply is extremely tight. Domestic (SHFE): As of August 31st, the zinc inventory of the previous period was 102672 tons, and the domestic supply is sufficient.
comprehensive analysis
The zinc price in September is likely to show a pattern of high volatility and a slight shift in the center of gravity, but domestic high inventory, spot discounts, and technical overbought are suppressing the upper space. The opening of export windows partially alleviates domestic pressure, and the approaching peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” provides marginal improvement expectations. The expected operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Zinc is between 25000-26800 yuan/ton.

In August 2026, the domestic price of 1 # antimony ingots continued to weaken, with an average price of 88250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 101500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative increase of 15.01% during the month. In August, the domestic antimony ingot market rebounded strongly, completely reversing the previous weak pattern. Prices fluctuated and rose sharply throughout the month. The trend of bottoming out at a low level at the beginning of the month, continuing to rise in the middle and late of the month, and stabilizing at a high level at the end of the month has fully released negative risks from the low price in the early stage. Coupled with the tightening of spot circulation and the recovery of downstream stocking demand, the market sentiment of rising prices has concentrated, and the overall fundamentals have turned from weak to strong. The spot market situation has significantly recovered.
Supply side:
The sustained tight supply pattern in the domestic antimony ingot market in August is the core factor supporting the significant rebound in prices this round. Due to mining control, environmental inspections, and periodic maintenance of enterprises in major antimony producing areas such as Hunan and Guangxi in China, the output of antimony concentrate from mines is limited, the circulation of raw materials continues to tighten, the difficulty of raw material procurement for smelters increases, and production costs are under pressure. Most enterprises have a strong mentality of low price reluctance to sell and are unwilling to ship at low prices. At the same time, the domestic antimony mining quota continues to tighten, and the overall production capacity of the industry is limited. Coupled with the low price operation in the early stage, some small and medium-sized smelters have been operating near the profit and loss line for a long time, with low production enthusiasm and scarce supply of finished products in the market. The limited amount of imported antimony ore supplements makes it difficult to effectively alleviate the domestic raw material shortage. The overall inventory in the market remains at a low level, and the tight balance pattern of spot prices runs through the whole month, providing solid support for the sustained upward trend of antimony prices.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. This month, the downstream demand for antimony ingots has structurally rebounded, and the demand in different application fields has improved synchronously. The overall trading atmosphere continues to improve.
Antimony oxide: As the core traditional consumer market for antimony ingots, there has been a significant demand recovery this month. The price of antimony ingots has been running at a low level for a long time in the early stage, and the raw material inventory of downstream flame retardant enterprises is generally at a low level. After the market bottomed out and rebounded in August, the willingness of terminal enterprises to buy from the bottom and replenish inventory was concentrated, and the production of antimony oxide manufacturers has steadily rebounded. The frequency and quantity of raw material procurement have significantly increased compared to the previous month. At the same time, traditional rigid demand industries such as metallurgy and hard alloys maintain stable on-demand procurement, continuously supporting the basic consumption of antimony ingots. The overall trend of traditional demand sectors shows a recovery trend of both quantity and price rising.
Photovoltaic: As the core incremental track of antimony ingots, demand has maintained a steady growth trend this month. Photovoltaic glass clarifying agent is the main emerging application scenario for high-purity antimony ingots. In August, the domestic photovoltaic industry’s production capacity remained stable, the production line operating rate remained high, and the terminal component orders remained stable, driving glass enterprises to continue purchasing high-purity antimony products for essential needs. The continuous increase in emerging demand has become an important incremental driving force supporting the upward trend of antimony prices. As the end of the month approaches, the traditional peak season for gold and silver is expected to heat up. Downstream companies are stocking up in advance to further increase procurement demand. Against the backdrop of tight spot supply, this has effectively driven up the price of antimony ingots this month.
Market forecast:

It is expected that the domestic antimony ingot market will maintain a high and strong overall trend with range fluctuations in September. The supply side support is stable, with strict control over domestic antimony mining and limited raw material output in major production areas. In addition, the import volume of overseas antimony ore has fallen month on month, and port transportation is restricted. The inventory of raw materials in smelters is low, and production costs remain high. The industry’s reluctance to sell and maintain prices continues, and low-priced spot goods are scarce in the market. The space for deep market decline is basically locked in. There is an expectation of peak season repair on the demand side, and the flame retardant industry corresponding to traditional antimony oxide will start stocking up during the Golden September peak season. The procurement demand is expected to increase marginally, while the high opening trend of the photovoltaic glass industry continues, and the demand for high-purity antimony products remains stable to support the market. However, the cumulative increase in antimony prices this month has been significant, and downstream companies are cautious about buying at high prices and have weak willingness to chase price increases. There is resistance to market volume price transmission, coupled with the demand for profit taking in high-level circulation, which will limit the significant upward space of prices. Overall, the core pattern of tight supply and stable demand in the antimony market has not changed, and the market’s long short game has intensified, mainly characterized by strong structural fluctuations. The focus will be on tracking the supply of mining raw materials, the pace of smelting resumption, and the landing of peak season demand in the two core areas of flame retardants and photovoltaics.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (August 19-25), domestic PA6 spot prices have continued their upward trend, with prices stabilizing at 12966.67 yuan/ton in the early stages. Prices across all cycles of the market are in the high range, and warning signals of over inflation continue to emerge; On August 25th, the price was raised by 1.54% again, and the spot price rose to 13166.67 yuan/ton, reaching a mid to high level this year. The rebound market that started from the low point in July continues to advance.
1. Cost analysis
The upstream raw material caprolactam market is operating strongly, with factory settlement prices steadily rising, and slicing production costs receiving sustained support. The fluctuation of upstream chemical raw materials for pure benzene has led to an increase in the bottom of costs, which has become an important driving factor for the sustained rise in PA6 prices this week. At present, there is no significant looseness in the raw material side, and the cost is still playing a bottoming role in the face of the slicing market. The short-term downward cost pressure is limited.
2. Supply and demand analysis
In terms of supply, the operating load of the domestic PA6 industry remains high, and the overall market supply of goods is sufficient. After some early maintenance equipment resumes production, the market increment has been released to some extent; However, due to the high price of caprolactam in the upstream and the pressure of loss in the slicing factory, the willingness to ship at low prices is not strong, and they actively push up spot prices.
On the demand side, the downstream nylon spinning and modified injection molding industries are gradually recovering, and with the expectation of the “Golden September”, downstream enterprises are gradually starting to replenish their inventory. The increase in procurement volume has driven the improvement of spot transactions and supported the upward trend of chip prices. However, after a round of continuous replenishment, the downstream mentality of chasing price increases has become cautious, and the resistance to high price transactions has gradually increased.
2、 Short term future forecast
The risk of short-term PA6 market fluctuations and high-level adjustments has increased. The current 10-90 day multi cycle indicators are all at high levels, with signals of 20 day and 30 day super price increases appearing. The ability to continue to move rapidly in the short term is insufficient; The cost support is still stable, coupled with the expected demand for Jinjiu, and there is limited room for a significant correction in the market. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate within the range of 12900-13400 yuan/ton, with a slower upward trend and entering a high-level digestion stage. The subsequent trend will mainly follow the price of caprolactam and the actual production and landing situation downstream.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8471 yuan/ton on August 18th and 8550 yuan/ton on August 25th, an increase of 0.92%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10533 yuan/ton on August 18th and 10733 yuan/ton on August 25th, an increase of 1.90%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 10550 yuan/ton on August 18th and 10650 yuan/ton on August 25th, an increase of 0.95%.
Multiple sets of polyethylene plants in China have undergone centralized maintenance, resulting in a decline in overall production and a short-term contraction in domestic supply. The inventory of petrochemical plants remains low, and the spot market is supported. But the maintenance equipment will be restarted gradually in September, and the production will return in the later stage, and the supply pressure will reappear.
The market is in a phase of transition between peak and off peak seasons, with overall downstream production maintaining a low level, mainly focused on on-demand procurement for essential needs. The gradual entry of agricultural film into the stocking cycle has brought certain expectations of peak season, but the actual order release pace is relatively slow. Downstream acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited, and there is a lack of proactive replenishment, making it difficult for demand to drive prices up significantly.
Geopolitical factors have pushed up crude oil prices, resulting in increased costs of raw materials for oil to PE production, providing bottom support for the market and compressing processing profits for oil companies. The coal production route has stable coal prices and little change in costs.
The current market is driven by the tight balance of spot goods brought about by maintenance and the increase in costs, but the actual demand is relatively weak. Short term maintenance is not yet completed, and costs still have support, with the market mainly fluctuating at high levels.

Core viewpoint: The rise in the acrylic acid market this round is not simply due to financial speculation, but is supported by solid fundamentals, including rising costs, shrinking supply, and internal transmission of essential needs in the industry chain, which collectively drive the low-level rebound. However, the weak terminal demand has led to a ceiling on the market height.
1、 The benchmark price of acrylic acid increased from 7983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8050.00 yuan/ton, with a week on week increase of 0.84%. The upstream raw material propylene has seen a significant increase, with a benchmark price of 8954.33 yuan/ton on August 23, up 12.95% from the beginning of this month. The increase in raw material prices is significantly higher than that of finished products, indicating a typical cost driven market trend.
2、 Fundamentals
1. Cost side: Raw material propylene has seen a significant increase, forming the underlying support for the market
Propylene is the most essential raw material for acrylic acid, accounting for over 60% of the total production cost. This month, propylene has significantly increased due to energy and equipment disturbances, directly raising the production cost of acrylic acid. Enterprises passively raised their quotations to hedge against raw material costs, resulting in a slower increase in finished product prices compared to raw material prices, and the industry’s processing profits were restored.
2. Supply side: Device maintenance, substantial tightening of spot goods supply
Domestic acrylic acid and related ester facilities have entered a maintenance cycle, causing a decline in industry production and social inventory falling to a low level for the year. The proportion of factory contract orders is relatively high, leading to a contraction of spot resources flowing into the circulation market, coupled with an increase in export orders, further digesting domestic inventory. Manufacturers’ spot prices are based on the reality of tight supply, and are not artificially inflated by hoarding.
3. Directly following up on downstream urgent needs, forming transmission within the industry chain
The factories of butyl acrylate, ethyl ester, and isooctyl ester urgently need to purchase goods, while downstream ester enterprises maintain production, resulting in a real demand for acrylic acid procurement and driving a surge in spot transactions. This is also a necessary condition for the price of acrylic acid to be implemented.
But it needs to be distinguished: there is a strong demand directly downstream, while the downstream of the terminal is relatively weak. The end industries of coatings, lotion and adhesives are still in the traditional off-season, and only just need to purchase, without large-scale hoarding. The concentrated market contradictions are reflected in the smooth transmission of intermediates and the weak acceptance of terminals.
3、 Market constraints
Although the fundamentals support this round of rebound, there are also practical constraints to curb unilateral surges:
1. The terminal demand is in the traditional slack season. The downstream paint lotion enterprises only accept the cost transmission, and are unable to actively promote the purchase of raw materials. The terminal bears the upper limit, which determines that the upward space of acrylic acid and esters is limited;
2. The medium and long-term moving averages of the 20th and 30th have not turned around, and the technical level is only a rebound;
3. The resumption of production of maintenance equipment in the later stage and the release of supply increment will suppress the market.
4、 Market analysis and judgment
In the short term, supported by the common fundamentals of propylene cost, low inventory, and downstream ester demand, acrylic acid, butyl ester, ethyl ester, and isooctyl ester will maintain strong oscillation. The market foundation comes from real costs and supply and demand, and there is no condition for funds to deviate from fundamental speculation.
In the medium to long term, the sustainability of the market depends on two fundamental variables: one is whether the propylene raw material can maintain a high level; The second is the game between supply increment and terminal demand after the maintenance equipment resumes production. Once costs loosen or supply is released in large quantities, there is a risk of a pullback in this rebound market.