In November, the domestic electrolytic nickel market struggled to move forward amidst fluctuating macro sentiment and solid fundamentals. The spot price once fell to a five-year low. Although it experienced a oversold rebound in the latter half of the year, the two mountains of “high inventory” and “weak demand” firmly suppressed the upward space of the price.
Price trend: under pressure, bottoming out, weak oscillation
As of November 27th, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 119366 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 2.35% during the month. The electrolytic nickel market has experienced a roller coaster ride this month, putting overall pressure on the market.
·From early to mid month: Continuous bearish trend. Under the triple pressure of a strong US dollar, oversupply, and weak downstream demand, the center of gravity of nickel prices continues to shift downwards, reaching a new low in nearly five years.
·Late period: oversold rebound. With the Federal Reserve releasing a “dovish” signal, market expectations of interest rate cuts are heating up, coupled with low prices stimulating some inventory replenishment behavior, nickel prices are experiencing a technical rebound.
Macro: long and short intertwined, emotions dominate short-term fluctuations
Negative pressure: The strong breakthrough of the US dollar index above the 100 mark has caused widespread suppression of metals priced in US dollars, which is an important external factor that has put pressure on prices this month.
Positive boost: In the latter half of the year, the Federal Reserve’s attitude turned dovish and the easing signal of Sino US trade injected confidence into the market, becoming a direct catalyst for this round of rebound.
Supply side: The overall surplus pattern is stable, and the expectations of the mining side are difficult to solve
Inventory pressure: LME and Shanghai Stock Exchange inventories continue to accumulate, both rising to high levels for the year. As of November 27th, LME nickel inventory increased by 3348 tons to 255450 tons during the month, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 2160 tons to 33548 tons. The extremely high global explicit inventory is the most direct and heavy factor in suppressing nickel prices.
The import of raw materials has contracted month on month, but the total supply is abundant: in October 2025, the import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrate in China was 4.6828 million tons, which decreased by 23.50% month on month, but still increased by 11.82% year-on-year. The month on month decline is mainly affected by the seasonal factor of the rainy season in the Philippines, which is a normal fluctuation. A year-on-year positive growth indicates that the overall supply of raw materials is still abundant.
Mining supply is facing long-term tightening expectations: the rainy season in the Philippines has arrived, and the mining and shipping volume of mainstream mining areas is seasonally declining. Indonesia plans to lower its nickel ore production target for 2026 and may control investment in new smelters, which could slow down global nickel supply growth in the long run. But the key is that these policies have little impact on changing the current short-term surplus situation.
Demand side: Both traditional and emerging engines stall
Weak demand for stainless steel: social inventory of stainless steel has accumulated, and some manufacturers have pushed forward maintenance and production reduction plans. On November 27th, the spot price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was reported at 12540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.79% for the month. The fluctuation of the stainless steel industry has directly weakened the demand for upstream primary nickel (especially nickel iron) and transmitted it to electrolytic nickel through the industrial chain.

The support for the new energy sector has slowed down: the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has increased, continuously squeezing the market for low and medium nickel ternary materials. The addition of overseas tariff barriers restricts the export of precursor materials, and the demand growth momentum for nickel in the new energy sector is insufficient. Despite overall compression, ternary battery technology itself is accelerating towards high nickel direction, which brings new growth points for the quality and structure of nickel used in batteries in the future. However, it is difficult to reverse the weak demand in the short term. ‌‌
Market forecast: Limited rebound space
Short term nickel prices are expected to maintain a ‘low volatility’ pattern. Any rebound driven by macro sentiment will face ruthl

ess tests of high inventory and weak demand, with extremely limited room for rebound.

1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices fluctuated widely in a “W” shape in November. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 87595 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 86715 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 17.36%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices were mostly higher than futures prices in November. The main contract is the expected price in two months, and the expected future price of copper is mainly weaker than the overall price.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly increased in November. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 156575 tons, up 17.2% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, on November 21st, New York Fed’s Williams made dovish remarks, with the market’s probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising sharply from about 40% at the beginning of the month to 82.9%. The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to a weakening of the US dollar, boosting copper prices denominated in US dollars.
Supply side: The production of major copper mines worldwide, such as Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, continues to be disrupted. Copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RC) are at a historical low, and some smelters are facing losses. China has suspended the construction of 2 million tons of new smelting capacity.
Downstream: Traditional demand is weak: copper demand in fields such as construction, real estate, and home appliances is sluggish. Strong emerging demand: copper consumption in areas such as power infrastructure, new energy vehicles, and AI data centers has increased, forming an effective hedge.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have fluctuated widely in December over the past five years, with no significant fluctuations.
In summary, the International Copper Research Group (ICSG) predicts that the global copper supply and demand gap will widen from 150000 tons in 2025 to 300000 tons in 2026. Some institutions predict that by 2026, LME copper prices may reach 13000 US dollars per ton, and Shanghai copper prices may exceed 100000 yuan per ton. The future policy path of the Federal Reserve still remains uncertain. The sustained high copper prices will exacerbate the cost pressure on downstream enterprises. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate widely in December.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda is 1205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.16% compared to the same period last year. On November 24th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 80.06, a decrease of 0.17 points from yesterday, setting a new historical low for the cycle, and a decrease of 66.05% from the highest point of 235.84 points on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1150-1250 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1224 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.16% compared to the same period last year, and downstream purchases are mostly made on demand.
Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been strong. However, downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, and demand enthusiasm for baking soda is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

At the end of November, the domestic ABS market was weak and continued to trend, with some spot prices of certain grades lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 24th, the average price of ABS sample products was 8620.00 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of 5.74% compared to early November.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since November, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has fluctuated, with large stability and small fluctuations. In the early stage, the load in Shandong region increased, and the maintenance scale at the end of the month was relatively small. The overall operating level of the industry remained stable at 72%, with an average weekly output of over 145000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is close to 260000 tons, holding firm at a high level. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices continues to be weak.
Cost factor: At the end of November, the overall ABS upstream three material market remained stagnant, which had a weak impact on boosting ABS costs. Among them, the fundamentals of the acrylonitrile cycle have not shown significant improvement, the market range is fluctuating, and the main contract factories have no pressure on inventory and prices continue to rise. At the same time, there is unplanned demand in the Shandong market in the short term, which supports the mentality of industry players. However, the overall supply is still loose, and the short-term market consolidation is the main trend.
At the end of November, the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, with an overall increase. The follow-up situation of downstream factories within the range is still acceptable, and the digestion of local sources of goods has pushed up spot prices. However, overall supply remains loose. With the increase in prices, downstream market enthusiasm has significantly weakened, and coupled with the recent weak trend of the synthetic rubber market, butadiene prices have experienced stagnation and decline.
Recently, the styrene market has been mainly volatile. The domestic price of raw material pure benzene was driven by the rise in external market, and the fundamentals remained weak. After a brief rise, it fell back, which limited the support for styrene. On the other hand, Sinochem Quanzhou stopped for maintenance ahead of schedule within the area, resulting in unplanned reductions on the supply side. The overseas demand on the demand side has slightly boosted, but the sustainability is limited. Domestic demand is in the off-season, and downstream production remains flat. Overall, it is expected that the styrene market will experience fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.
On the demand side: There is no significant increase in downstream demand for ABS, and factory loads are average. The overall stocking logic of terminal enterprises still maintains the urgent need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods supply is slow. The inventory position of merchants is also at a high level of stalemate, and under the increasing pressure of de stocking in the field, enterprises and merchants continue to offer discounts and take orders. On a macro level, due to the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises and external market turbulence, the consumption of the main downstream electrical appliance shell industry has been hindered, and there has been no increase in future production. The Mid month E-commerce Shopping Festival has limited impact on industry consumption, and the cautious atmosphere in both domestic and foreign markets has resulted in poor industry momentum. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Market outlook
At the end of November, the domestic ABS market continued to decline. The production load of the aggregation plant remains stable with small fluctuations, while consumer demand remains low and flat. Business analysts believe that the long-term supply-demand imbalance of ABS has plagued the market, dragging down spot prices. At the same time, the upstream three material market is deadlocked, and the mentality of industry players is often negative. In the short term, there is a lack of positive guidance, and it is expected that downward pressure on ABS will still exist.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (11.17-21), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4416 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.96% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC continued its previous weak market trend, with most manufacturers offering stable prices and some mainly lowering prices within 100 yuan. Since November, the PVC market has continued to fluctuate within a weak range. On the one hand, there is a lack of favorable fundamentals, and crude oil prices have been consistently weak, with prices hovering at low levels and a weak futures market. The spot price of PVC is also unlikely to have a strong trend, with a slight downward shift in the overall range. More importantly, the supply and demand fundamentals remain in a pattern of oversupply, and the supply and demand of the spot PVC market continue to be loose. Most manufacturers are operating stably, and the PVC production rate continues to increase this week. Supply pressure remains high, dealer offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4450-4520 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the performance of the calcium carbide market was sluggish this week, and the price did not continue the previous downward trend, but still hovered at the bottom. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the fluctuation range this week was 0. The price is still relatively low, with limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market will continue to perform poorly in the short term, with prices continuing to fluctuate weakly. On the one hand, the supply pressure is not decreasing, and next week we are facing the expectation of starting work, which is bearish for the supply. In addition, the operating rate of downstream factories is insufficient, the demand is average, and the supply-demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will not have a good performance next week.