Market Review: From October 14th to 20th, the mainstream ex factory price of PA66 in China remained stable at 19100 yuan/ton, unchanged for a week, with a daily increase or decrease of 0%, and the market entered a sideways consolidation stage. From the perspective of cycle position, the dimensions of the past 10 days, 20 days, 60 days, and 90 days are in the high range, and the one-year dimension is in the middle low range.
Cost side: The fluctuation of upstream adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine raw materials is limited, and there is no clear driving force for the rise or fall of raw material costs. The support of costs for PA66 is relatively stable, lacking unilateral driving force.
Supply and demand side: in terms of supply, the starting load of domestic mainstream production enterprises remains stable, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, and the factory has no centralized price adjustment, production restriction and price fixing action for the time being; The downstream modification, injection molding, and textile terminals on the demand side mainly focus on on-demand procurement, and the follow-up of essential orders is smooth. There is a lack of centralized replenishment market, and the supply-demand game is balanced. There is no obvious supply-demand gap or accumulated inventory pressure, which is the core reason for the price stalemate.
Short term forecast for the future: PA66 is likely to continue its volatile pattern in the short term, with high short-term cycle constraints above, resulting in significant resistance to rapid upward movement; Below, there is support from raw material costs and the mid to low level of the year, with limited room for deep decline. The market fluctuates slightly with downstream order rhythms.

This week, the carbon black market prices have mainly fallen As of the 16th, the domestic market price of N220 carbon black was at 10807.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57% from the beginning of the week at 11692.86 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 49.27%.
In terms of raw materials, the high-temperature coal tar market has been operating strongly this week. The auction price of high-temperature coal tar in Shanxi was 5600 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from last week; The price increase in Inner Mongolia region reached 370-400 yuan/ton. The mainstream negotiated price in the Shandong market remains at 5450 yuan/ton, and downstream deep processed products have all risen. The profitability of enterprises has recovered, and merchants have stable entry and receipt of goods. Coal tar accounts for about 65% -80% of the production cost of carbon black, and the cost side provides strong support for the price of carbon black.
On the supply side, the operating rate of the carbon black industry this week was 57.43%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points from last week. Some early-stage maintenance companies have maintained production cuts, and some large factories are expected to increase production, but the overall operating rate is still at a medium low level. The profits of coke enterprises continue to shrink, with the national average profit per ton of coke falling near the breakeven line, and production restrictions continue to constrain the increase in coal tar supply. Carbon black companies have suffered losses from executing low-priced orders in the early stages, and mainstream large factories have a strong willingness to push prices up. The supply side presents a pattern of “low production and strong price support”.
In terms of the terminal market, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has significantly rebounded this week, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.80% for the sample semi steel tire enterprises, a significant increase of 33.28 percentage points compared to the previous week; The utilization rate of all steel tire production capacity was 53.31%, an increase of 26.67 percentage points compared to the previous period. However, there is still a significant decline compared to last year, and downstream tire companies have high finished product inventories. Purchasing is maintained at the same time, and overall stocking sentiment is average. Purchasing for essential needs is cautious, and new orders in the carbon black market are not smooth. The demand side shows the characteristics of “month on month improvement and year-on-year weakness”.
Influencing factors: The core contradiction in the current carbon black market lies in the game between rising costs and weak demand. On the one hand, the price of coal tar continues to rise, with a cumulative increase of about 45% in September for high-temperature coal tar in Shandong. Correspondingly, the cost of carbon black has increased by 3000-4000 yuan/ton, and carbon black enterprises are experiencing intensified losses, indicating a strong willingness to raise prices. On the other hand, tire companies are facing the dilemma of high raw material prices and immediate losses. Taking 12R22.5 all steel tires as an example, the production cost of a single tire is about 989 yuan, while the wholesale price is only about 909 yuan. Selling one tire results in a loss of about 80 yuan. The price increase of carbon black is hindered from being transmitted downstream, and the market is in a stalemate of “cost support, no demand drive”.

Outlook for the future: This week, the carbon black market is showing an operating pattern of “strong cost and supply-demand competition”. The center of gravity of coal tar prices on the raw material side continues to shift upwards, forming a rigid support for carbon black costs; The operating rate of the supply side has slightly rebounded but still remains low, and the mentality of enterprises to support prices is clear; The demand side tire production has significantly recovered on a month on month basis, but is relatively weak compared to the same period last year. The procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, and the acceptance of high priced carbon black is limited. In the short term, the raw material coal tar market is expected to operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend. There is still some support for the release of inventory replenishment demand from deep processing enterprises, and there is an expectation of an increase in inventory of new carbon black orders. However, downstream tire companies face enormous cost pressure, and the transmission of price increases is not smooth. The upward space for carbon black prices may be constrained by the acceptance of the demand side. It is expected that the carbon black market will be dominated by strong consolidation next week, with limited growth.

1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices have slightly decreased this week. As of October 16th, the copper price was reported at 110565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 29.59%.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 255900 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 5.4% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the suppression on the macro level has significantly increased this week. The September minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that most officials believe that further interest rate hikes may still be needed this year. The accelerated rise in CPI in September has once again raised expectations of interest rate hikes, and the high operation of the US dollar index has suppressed the valuation of non-ferrous metals.
Supply side: The supply side presents a dual constraint pattern of “tight mining and reduced smelting”. The spot price of copper concentrate processing fee TC has fallen to -238 US dollars/ton, the lowest level since September 2007, and the domestic electrolytic copper smelting operating rate has hit a new low since the same period in 2014. In October, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to drop to 1084700 tons, the lowest point of the year. The driving force for production reduction has shifted from routine maintenance to proactive reduction by smelters. Antofagasta’s copper production in the third quarter increased by 7% month on month but decreased by 8.3% year-on-year. BHP Billiton lowered its production guidance for the 2027 fiscal year, and the supply elasticity of the mining sector continues to be limited. However, this week’s narrative focus shifted from supply to inventory and basis, with a significant increase of 20000 tons in copper inventory certificates on the previous exchange, becoming a direct trigger for the weakening of copper prices.
Demand side: The demand side exhibits obvious price elasticity characteristics, and the high price suppression effect has become apparent. At the beginning of the week, when the spot price surged to 112160 yuan, downstream copper rod and copper tube enterprises showed a significant weakening of their willingness to receive goods, and procurement became wait-and-see. The marginal improvement in transactions was only after prices fell. The operating rate of cable companies in the first week of October decreased by 1.94 percentage points month on month to 60.19%, and the demand for refined copper rods continues to be under pressure. The apparent consumption of refined copper in September was 1.39 million tons, a decrease of about 60000 tons compared to the same period last year, and the quality during the traditional peak season was weaker than in previous years. However, the structural highlights still remain: investment in the power grid is expected to be concentrated in the fourth quarter, and the demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage tracks is resilient. The annual sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 19 million units, providing bottom support for copper demand.
Influencing factors:
On the negative side: Firstly, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is heating up and the strengthening of the US dollar is suppressing valuations; Secondly, the inventory of the previous period was replenished by 20000 tons per week, ending the four week destocking. The premium of spot goods for the current month’s contract sharply decreased from 1080 yuan to 420 yuan, and the support for tight positions in recent months has substantially loosened; Thirdly, BHP and the Escondida copper mining union reached an agreement to avoid strikes, easing concerns about supply disruptions and triggering profit taking. Positive factors: Firstly, the deep negative value of TC has forced smelting production to decrease, and the production in October has fallen to the lowest point of the year, forming rigid support; Secondly, LME copper inventory has been reduced from 6425 tons to 226600 tons, with Cash/3M maintaining a premium, and the tight overseas spot market pattern has not changed. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, copper prices are showing a tug of war trend at high levels.

In summary, the core driving force behind the weakening of copper prices this week comes from the resonance between macro suppression and domestic inventory replenishment, but the medium-term support composed of tight balance at the mining end and reduced smelting production has not collapsed. The short-term contradiction lies in the fact that macro level concerns about interest rate hikes and tariffs suppress risk appetite, while micro level downstream acceptance of prices above 110000 yuan is limited. But against the backdrop of smelting losses expanding to around 5000 yuan/ton, the rigid constraint of supply contraction will eventually emerge. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate and weaken next week.

In the first half of October, dimethyl carbonate (DMC) showed an overall trend of a post holiday surge followed by a high-level decline, with short-term expectations of a weak stalemate and limited upward space. As of October 15th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 6033 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Market Driving Factors
Cost: In the first half of the month, the raw material side epoxy propane increased by over 7%, and methanol first increased by over 7%, which boosted the cost aspect at one point; But the subsequent decline in methanol led to a shift in support from strong to weak.
Supply: After the holiday, both equipment shutdown and resumption of production coexist. The weekly output and capacity utilization rate were low in the early stage, tight in the early stage, and the supply is expected to increase in the later stage.
Demand: There will be restocking after the holiday, and the foreign trade side will continue to follow the port, but there is resistance from downstream to high prices. The support for essential needs is still there, and the willingness to chase high prices is insufficient.
Emotion: The manufacturer initially raised prices significantly, but then transactions weakened, and the market became more cautious, resulting in increased resistance to price increases.
Market forecast: From a comprehensive perspective of cost, supply and demand, market sentiment, and technical aspects, short-term dimethyl carbonate is expected to remain stagnant and weakly volatile, with limited upward potential and slight downward pressure on the center of gravity.
The cost boost brought by the previous surge in raw material prices is gradually diminishing, and if methanol and epichlorohydrin experience a slight correction in the future, it will further weaken the bottom support; With the resumption of maintenance equipment on the supply side, the expected increase in market supply is rising, and the tight supply pattern is gradually easing. The demand side only needs to support the bottom, while the downstream resists high prices. The replenishment is basically fulfilled in stages, and the favorable conditions for foreign trade and port consolidation are difficult to sustain in driving spot goods. There is a lack of buying opportunities to chase after high prices. The market sentiment has shifted from previous manufacturers raising prices to a wait-and-see game, with weak follow-up on transactions and significant resistance to price increases.

1、 Market trend
On October 14th, the reference price for the domestic butanone market was 9600 yuan/ton, an increase of 367 yuan/ton or 3.97% compared to the reference price of 9233 yuan/ton for butanone on October 1st.
In early October 2026, the domestic butanone market showed a steady upward trend. During the National Day holiday, the butanone market remained relatively calm with little fluctuation in the market. In the first week after the holiday, the butanone market experienced an upward trend, with butanone factories and holders raising their prices by around 300-500 yuan/ton during the week. As of October 14th, the domestic butanone market price reference was around 9450-9850 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: In early October, the price of the raw material product ether C4 of butanone fluctuated and remained at a relatively high level. The support of butanone from the cost side was strong, and the overall intention of butanone factories and operators to lower prices was limited. The mentality of holders was supported, and the offer was very strong, driving the market to continuously increase the focus of negotiations.
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply side of butanone is stable, and the supply pressure is still controllable. Some butanone operators have a certain degree of enthusiasm to enter the market for replenishment, which has led to a rebound in market trading atmosphere and jointly promoted the shift of market negotiation focus. However, the overall sentiment towards inquiries and purchases from downstream factories is average, with a focus on on-demand purchases and urgent needs. Overall transactions still need to be increased.
3、 Future prospects
At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic butanone market is mild, and the cost side support is still acceptable. There is a certain wait-and-see sentiment downstream, and factory inquiries and purchases are showing caution. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly operate with range fluctuations, and specific attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.