机翻 · 通用领域
This week, the domestic light rare earth market price trend has declined. On October 22, the rare earth index was 642 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 36.25% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 136.90% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015.
This week, the prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide in China have all declined. As of the weekend, the price of neodymium oxide was 760000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98%; The price of neodymium metal is 940000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% in price; The price of praseodymium oxide is 757500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% in price; The price of praseodymium metal is 987500 yuan/ton, with a price trend decline of 1.0%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 892500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11% in price; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 730000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% in price.
This week, the domestic light rare earth market prices have declined, and the prices of core products have also decreased. The main reason for this round of decline is the loosening of the supply side margin, and the abundance of spot goods has suppressed prices; In addition, after the demand side became sluggish, there was a significant decrease in purchasing willingness due to the lack of supply.
1、 Supply side: Marginal loosening, abundant spot prices suppressing prices
The spot supply of light rare earths has shown marginal looseness during the same period, weakening price support. Myanmar is an important source of rare earth imports for China. In September, the amount of unlisted rare earth oxide imported from Myanmar by China surged from 1346 tons in August to 3509 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month, accounting for 70% of the total amount of similar imports for the month. Myanmar mines are an important source of supplementary raw materials for light rare earths, and the phased recovery of their supply directly increases the looseness of the spot market. Recently, some holders of goods have stopped raising prices and instead offered to sell at lower prices in exchange for liquidity. At the same time, some of the previously unsold praseodymium neodymium spot goods have also begun to flow into the market, which has eased the short-term supply-demand contradiction to some extent, but has directly suppressed prices.
2、 Demand side: After the holiday, there will be a shortage of supply and demand, and the willingness to purchase will significantly shrink
Before the National Day holiday, downstream magnetic material companies conducted a round of centralized replenishment, but after the holiday, terminal orders did not keep up, leading to a “demand gap period” in the market. The release of terminal demand fell short of expectations, and the demand release of major downstream industries such as new energy and motors was slower than expected. As a result, magnetic material companies generally turned to on-demand replenishment, and their willingness to stock up on a large scale was not strong. Pre holiday replenishment overdraft, post holiday focus on digesting inventory: Magnetic material companies have completed phased replenishment in the early stage, and downstream mainly consume existing inventory after the holiday. The growth rate of new purchase orders has significantly slowed down, and the overall demand for magnetic materials for mid-range variable frequency air conditioners and other household appliances is weak.

In the short term, the rare earth market continues to operate weakly. The recent decline in light rare earths is the result of a mismatch in demand pace after the holiday, a recovery in supply margins, and a cooling market sentiment. Cost support determines that the slope of price decline is relatively gentle, rather than a rapid decline. The key to stabilizing in the future lies in whether the new orders of magnetic material enterprises can be effectively released within the traditional stocking window in the fourth quarter, and whether the import rhythm of overseas raw materials such as Myanmar will be disturbed again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.

1、 Price trend
As of October 22, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China is 6366 yuan/ton. The white carbon black market has not shown a unified upward or downward trend, but has clearly differentiated into “low-level stability of general precipitation method white carbon black, and strong operation of high-end tire grade and gas-phase method white carbon black”. In the short term, general products are still constrained by overcapacity and downstream price pressure; High end products benefit from the demand for green tires, silicone rubber, and special materials, with strong price resilience.
2、 Market analysis
The overall operating rate of the domestic white carbon black industry is about 75% -82%, and top enterprises rely on stable customers and long-term cooperative orders to ensure relatively stable device operation; Small and medium-sized enterprises mainly adjust their production load based on the order situation, and the operating level of general grade production lines is significantly lower than that of high-end specialized grades.
Upstream costs: The main costs of precipitation method white carbon black include sodium silicate, sulfuric acid, soda ash, quartz sand, as well as energy costs such as steam and electricity. Gas phase method white carbon black is more affected by methyl trichlorosilane, organic silicon monomers, and energy costs. Recently, the price of soda ash has been fluctuating at a low level, and there has been a decrease in supply and inventory depletion in some areas due to equipment maintenance. However, downstream demand is average, and the price rebound power is insufficient. The sulfuric acid market presents regional and process differentiation, and some areas are affected by maintenance, with prices being relatively strong. Overall, there has not been a significant unilateral upward trend, and the supply of raw materials such as sodium silicate and quartz sand is relatively sufficient.
Downstream demand: Tires are still the most important downstream market for white carbon black. The traditional replacement tire and all steel tire fields are generally in operation, and enterprises face high pressure on raw material and finished product inventory. The procurement strategy is mainly based on on-demand procurement and inventory control, which has a certain degree of suppression on general white carbon black. However, the demand for highly dispersed white carbon black from green tires and high-performance tires continues to grow, and the cost price difference between white carbon black and carbon black has widened, which has also increased the enthusiasm of tire enterprises to increase the amount of white carbon black. However, the adjustment of tire formula, product verification, and customer certification cycles are relatively long, and the increment brought by material substitution will not be released in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that if tire companies continue to have low production and inventory levels, it will be difficult for the demand for general white carbon black to improve significantly. In the short term, the white carbon black market will continue to have a differentiation pattern of “weak stability of general products and strong preference for high-end products”. In the fourth quarter, the cost side will provide some support for the bottom of prices, but the main factors that truly determine whether prices can rise are still the recovery of downstream demand and the strength of supply side production control.

Market Review: From October 14th to 19th, the mainstream ex factory price of regular spun PA6 chips in China remained stable at 14900 yuan/ton, and continued to maintain stability; On October 20th, the price was raised to 15000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.67%. In terms of cycle position, the 10 day, 20 day, 90 day, and one-year cycles are all in the high range, and the price has approached the annual high of 15400 yuan/ton, compressing the upward space.
Cost side: The upstream caprolactam weekly settlement price has increased, providing cost support for PA6, and the raw material side has shown a bottoming effect, which is the core driving force behind this slight increase; However, the uncertainty brought by the fluctuation of pure benzene still exists, and the driving force for further significant increases in raw materials is limited.
Supply and demand side: On the supply side, domestic caprolactam and polymerization plants are operating at a relatively stable level, and spot supply is normal. There is currently no centralized production reduction or price protection action; Downstream textile and modification factories on the demand side continue to follow up on essential needs, and with the expectation of rising raw material prices, a small amount of inventory replenishment is released. However, the sustainability of terminal orders is weak, and the willingness to pursue price increases downstream at high prices is cautious, making it difficult to form sustained bulk purchases.
Short term forecast for the future: PA6 is expected to experience strong fluctuations in the short term, with cost support remaining. However, the current price is at a high level for the year, close to the upper pressure level, and there is limited room for further upward movement. The risk of high-level pullback is gradually accumulating, and the market is more likely to show a pattern of pressure and wide range fluctuations after rising.

Market Review: From October 14th to 20th, the mainstream ex factory price of PA66 in China remained stable at 19100 yuan/ton, unchanged for a week, with a daily increase or decrease of 0%, and the market entered a sideways consolidation stage. From the perspective of cycle position, the dimensions of the past 10 days, 20 days, 60 days, and 90 days are in the high range, and the one-year dimension is in the middle low range.
Cost side: The fluctuation of upstream adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine raw materials is limited, and there is no clear driving force for the rise or fall of raw material costs. The support of costs for PA66 is relatively stable, lacking unilateral driving force.
Supply and demand side: in terms of supply, the starting load of domestic mainstream production enterprises remains stable, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, and the factory has no centralized price adjustment, production restriction and price fixing action for the time being; The downstream modification, injection molding, and textile terminals on the demand side mainly focus on on-demand procurement, and the follow-up of essential orders is smooth. There is a lack of centralized replenishment market, and the supply-demand game is balanced. There is no obvious supply-demand gap or accumulated inventory pressure, which is the core reason for the price stalemate.
Short term forecast for the future: PA66 is likely to continue its volatile pattern in the short term, with high short-term cycle constraints above, resulting in significant resistance to rapid upward movement; Below, there is support from raw material costs and the mid to low level of the year, with limited room for deep decline. The market fluctuates slightly with downstream order rhythms.

This week, the carbon black market prices have mainly fallen As of the 16th, the domestic market price of N220 carbon black was at 10807.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57% from the beginning of the week at 11692.86 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 49.27%.
In terms of raw materials, the high-temperature coal tar market has been operating strongly this week. The auction price of high-temperature coal tar in Shanxi was 5600 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from last week; The price increase in Inner Mongolia region reached 370-400 yuan/ton. The mainstream negotiated price in the Shandong market remains at 5450 yuan/ton, and downstream deep processed products have all risen. The profitability of enterprises has recovered, and merchants have stable entry and receipt of goods. Coal tar accounts for about 65% -80% of the production cost of carbon black, and the cost side provides strong support for the price of carbon black.
On the supply side, the operating rate of the carbon black industry this week was 57.43%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points from last week. Some early-stage maintenance companies have maintained production cuts, and some large factories are expected to increase production, but the overall operating rate is still at a medium low level. The profits of coke enterprises continue to shrink, with the national average profit per ton of coke falling near the breakeven line, and production restrictions continue to constrain the increase in coal tar supply. Carbon black companies have suffered losses from executing low-priced orders in the early stages, and mainstream large factories have a strong willingness to push prices up. The supply side presents a pattern of “low production and strong price support”.
In terms of the terminal market, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has significantly rebounded this week, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.80% for the sample semi steel tire enterprises, a significant increase of 33.28 percentage points compared to the previous week; The utilization rate of all steel tire production capacity was 53.31%, an increase of 26.67 percentage points compared to the previous period. However, there is still a significant decline compared to last year, and downstream tire companies have high finished product inventories. Purchasing is maintained at the same time, and overall stocking sentiment is average. Purchasing for essential needs is cautious, and new orders in the carbon black market are not smooth. The demand side shows the characteristics of “month on month improvement and year-on-year weakness”.
Influencing factors: The core contradiction in the current carbon black market lies in the game between rising costs and weak demand. On the one hand, the price of coal tar continues to rise, with a cumulative increase of about 45% in September for high-temperature coal tar in Shandong. Correspondingly, the cost of carbon black has increased by 3000-4000 yuan/ton, and carbon black enterprises are experiencing intensified losses, indicating a strong willingness to raise prices. On the other hand, tire companies are facing the dilemma of high raw material prices and immediate losses. Taking 12R22.5 all steel tires as an example, the production cost of a single tire is about 989 yuan, while the wholesale price is only about 909 yuan. Selling one tire results in a loss of about 80 yuan. The price increase of carbon black is hindered from being transmitted downstream, and the market is in a stalemate of “cost support, no demand drive”.

Outlook for the future: This week, the carbon black market is showing an operating pattern of “strong cost and supply-demand competition”. The center of gravity of coal tar prices on the raw material side continues to shift upwards, forming a rigid support for carbon black costs; The operating rate of the supply side has slightly rebounded but still remains low, and the mentality of enterprises to support prices is clear; The demand side tire production has significantly recovered on a month on month basis, but is relatively weak compared to the same period last year. The procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, and the acceptance of high priced carbon black is limited. In the short term, the raw material coal tar market is expected to operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend. There is still some support for the release of inventory replenishment demand from deep processing enterprises, and there is an expectation of an increase in inventory of new carbon black orders. However, downstream tire companies face enormous cost pressure, and the transmission of price increases is not smooth. The upward space for carbon black prices may be constrained by the acceptance of the demand side. It is expected that the carbon black market will be dominated by strong consolidation next week, with limited growth.