1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices have slightly decreased this week. As of October 16th, the copper price was reported at 110565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 29.59%.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 255900 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 5.4% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the suppression on the macro level has significantly increased this week. The September minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that most officials believe that further interest rate hikes may still be needed this year. The accelerated rise in CPI in September has once again raised expectations of interest rate hikes, and the high operation of the US dollar index has suppressed the valuation of non-ferrous metals.
Supply side: The supply side presents a dual constraint pattern of “tight mining and reduced smelting”. The spot price of copper concentrate processing fee TC has fallen to -238 US dollars/ton, the lowest level since September 2007, and the domestic electrolytic copper smelting operating rate has hit a new low since the same period in 2014. In October, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to drop to 1084700 tons, the lowest point of the year. The driving force for production reduction has shifted from routine maintenance to proactive reduction by smelters. Antofagasta’s copper production in the third quarter increased by 7% month on month but decreased by 8.3% year-on-year. BHP Billiton lowered its production guidance for the 2027 fiscal year, and the supply elasticity of the mining sector continues to be limited. However, this week’s narrative focus shifted from supply to inventory and basis, with a significant increase of 20000 tons in copper inventory certificates on the previous exchange, becoming a direct trigger for the weakening of copper prices.
Demand side: The demand side exhibits obvious price elasticity characteristics, and the high price suppression effect has become apparent. At the beginning of the week, when the spot price surged to 112160 yuan, downstream copper rod and copper tube enterprises showed a significant weakening of their willingness to receive goods, and procurement became wait-and-see. The marginal improvement in transactions was only after prices fell. The operating rate of cable companies in the first week of October decreased by 1.94 percentage points month on month to 60.19%, and the demand for refined copper rods continues to be under pressure. The apparent consumption of refined copper in September was 1.39 million tons, a decrease of about 60000 tons compared to the same period last year, and the quality during the traditional peak season was weaker than in previous years. However, the structural highlights still remain: investment in the power grid is expected to be concentrated in the fourth quarter, and the demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage tracks is resilient. The annual sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 19 million units, providing bottom support for copper demand.
Influencing factors:
On the negative side: Firstly, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is heating up and the strengthening of the US dollar is suppressing valuations; Secondly, the inventory of the previous period was replenished by 20000 tons per week, ending the four week destocking. The premium of spot goods for the current month’s contract sharply decreased from 1080 yuan to 420 yuan, and the support for tight positions in recent months has substantially loosened; Thirdly, BHP and the Escondida copper mining union reached an agreement to avoid strikes, easing concerns about supply disruptions and triggering profit taking. Positive factors: Firstly, the deep negative value of TC has forced smelting production to decrease, and the production in October has fallen to the lowest point of the year, forming rigid support; Secondly, LME copper inventory has been reduced from 6425 tons to 226600 tons, with Cash/3M maintaining a premium, and the tight overseas spot market pattern has not changed. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, copper prices are showing a tug of war trend at high levels.

In summary, the core driving force behind the weakening of copper prices this week comes from the resonance between macro suppression and domestic inventory replenishment, but the medium-term support composed of tight balance at the mining end and reduced smelting production has not collapsed. The short-term contradiction lies in the fact that macro level concerns about interest rate hikes and tariffs suppress risk appetite, while micro level downstream acceptance of prices above 110000 yuan is limited. But against the backdrop of smelting losses expanding to around 5000 yuan/ton, the rigid constraint of supply contraction will eventually emerge. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate and weaken next week.

In the first half of October, dimethyl carbonate (DMC) showed an overall trend of a post holiday surge followed by a high-level decline, with short-term expectations of a weak stalemate and limited upward space. As of October 15th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 6033 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Market Driving Factors
Cost: In the first half of the month, the raw material side epoxy propane increased by over 7%, and methanol first increased by over 7%, which boosted the cost aspect at one point; But the subsequent decline in methanol led to a shift in support from strong to weak.
Supply: After the holiday, both equipment shutdown and resumption of production coexist. The weekly output and capacity utilization rate were low in the early stage, tight in the early stage, and the supply is expected to increase in the later stage.
Demand: There will be restocking after the holiday, and the foreign trade side will continue to follow the port, but there is resistance from downstream to high prices. The support for essential needs is still there, and the willingness to chase high prices is insufficient.
Emotion: The manufacturer initially raised prices significantly, but then transactions weakened, and the market became more cautious, resulting in increased resistance to price increases.
Market forecast: From a comprehensive perspective of cost, supply and demand, market sentiment, and technical aspects, short-term dimethyl carbonate is expected to remain stagnant and weakly volatile, with limited upward potential and slight downward pressure on the center of gravity.
The cost boost brought by the previous surge in raw material prices is gradually diminishing, and if methanol and epichlorohydrin experience a slight correction in the future, it will further weaken the bottom support; With the resumption of maintenance equipment on the supply side, the expected increase in market supply is rising, and the tight supply pattern is gradually easing. The demand side only needs to support the bottom, while the downstream resists high prices. The replenishment is basically fulfilled in stages, and the favorable conditions for foreign trade and port consolidation are difficult to sustain in driving spot goods. There is a lack of buying opportunities to chase after high prices. The market sentiment has shifted from previous manufacturers raising prices to a wait-and-see game, with weak follow-up on transactions and significant resistance to price increases.

1、 Market trend
On October 14th, the reference price for the domestic butanone market was 9600 yuan/ton, an increase of 367 yuan/ton or 3.97% compared to the reference price of 9233 yuan/ton for butanone on October 1st.
In early October 2026, the domestic butanone market showed a steady upward trend. During the National Day holiday, the butanone market remained relatively calm with little fluctuation in the market. In the first week after the holiday, the butanone market experienced an upward trend, with butanone factories and holders raising their prices by around 300-500 yuan/ton during the week. As of October 14th, the domestic butanone market price reference was around 9450-9850 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: In early October, the price of the raw material product ether C4 of butanone fluctuated and remained at a relatively high level. The support of butanone from the cost side was strong, and the overall intention of butanone factories and operators to lower prices was limited. The mentality of holders was supported, and the offer was very strong, driving the market to continuously increase the focus of negotiations.
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply side of butanone is stable, and the supply pressure is still controllable. Some butanone operators have a certain degree of enthusiasm to enter the market for replenishment, which has led to a rebound in market trading atmosphere and jointly promoted the shift of market negotiation focus. However, the overall sentiment towards inquiries and purchases from downstream factories is average, with a focus on on-demand purchases and urgent needs. Overall transactions still need to be increased.
3、 Future prospects
At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic butanone market is mild, and the cost side support is still acceptable. There is a certain wait-and-see sentiment downstream, and factory inquiries and purchases are showing caution. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly operate with range fluctuations, and specific attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (October 7-13), the spot price of PA66 in the market remained stagnant, with the benchmark spot price stabilizing at 19100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase or decrease of 0.00%. The mainstream manufacturers’ slice quotations have basically maintained the level of last week, with the market average remaining unchanged and no clear trend signal; From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 60 day and 3-month cycles are in the high range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range. The price oscillates and consolidates in the high range, and there is no bullish buying signal in the moving average system where the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average. In the short term, it mainly operates in a volatile manner.
2、 Cost analysis
The upstream supply of adiponitrile and hexamethylenediamine is stable, and the raw material prices fluctuate narrowly without significant fluctuations. There is a certain bottom support on the cost side, but the upward driving force is insufficient. Under the current slicing price, the industry still faces pressure to incur losses, and some companies have the demand to reduce production to maintain prices. However, the loose supply of raw materials has not substantially changed, and the cost side is difficult to drive PA66 prices to break through.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the production of PA66 equipment in China remains at a moderate level, with sufficient supply of sliced goods. There is still pressure on market circulation inventory, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to stabilize prices. However, the competition pressure for spot shipments still exists, and there is significant resistance to actively pulling up prices. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as modification, injection molding, and textile airbag silk have not seen a significant increase in production. Terminal factories insist on purchasing on demand and purchasing as needed, with insufficient willingness to stock up in large quantities. The basic support for demand has been formed, but there is a lack of incremental order release. Under the game of supply and demand, the market lacks upward driving force, and the market maintains a high level of sideways observation.
4、 Short term forecast
The short-term PA66 spot market is likely to continue its high volatility pattern. The fundamentals of loose raw materials and abundant spot supply are difficult to reverse quickly, and the conditions for a significant increase in the market are not yet met; The current price is at a high level in a 60 day, 3-month cycle, with limited room for upward movement. However, the expected reduction in production caused by industry losses provides some support for downward space, and the space for deep decline is limited. The price is likely to fluctuate and consolidate within the range of 18800-19500 yuan/ton. The focus will be on tracking the maintenance dynamics of upstream equipment and the fulfillment of downstream autumn and winter orders in the future.

The domestic formic acid market showed a sideways trend after the holiday. On October 9th, the benchmark price of formic acid was 2100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and then the price stabilized.
The upward trend is driven by the supply side: manufacturers have the willingness to raise prices, but lack the ability to continuously pull up prices
The thrust comes from the supply side. During the holiday period, mainstream manufacturers stopped selling goods at low prices, and on October 8th, prices stabilized at around 2000 yuan/ton; After the holiday, production enterprises actively raised their prices to stimulate downstream procurement, driving up the average transaction price on October 9th. The inventory structure also corresponds to this action: the median inventory of production enterprises is higher, and the social inventory in the circulation process is relatively low.
Horizontal trading is the baseline scenario, and breakthrough requires the emergence of new variables on the demand or supply side
The demand side is the most direct constraint on current prices. Terminal orders are scattered, and downstream acceptance of 2100 yuan/ton is generally limited; The manufacturer has publicly raised prices, but lacks the motivation to proactively negotiate, making sideways trading the most likely scenario.
Overall, this round of price increase is a one-time price displacement caused by supply side push ups, with a short-term trend of sideways consolidation. The price of 2100 yuan/ton is close to the acceptable upper limit downstream. The future trend may be dominated by consolidation.