On February 17, the rare earth index was 340 points, unchanged from yesterday, 66.00% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 25.46% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium is 368500 yuan / ton, 2175000 yuan / ton and 645000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 284000 yuan / ton; that of dysprosium oxide is 15000 yuan / ton to 1750000 yuan / ton; that of praseodymium oxide is 330000 yuan / ton; and that of neodymium oxide is 294500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in the rare earth alloy was 361500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy rose 30000 yuan / ton to 1735000 yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market is rising, and people in the market are optimistic about the future market. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, reducing domestic imports. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic in the near future, some rare earth products have not been fully restored to work. The price supply of heavy and rare earth in China is tight, and the price trend of heavy and rare earth in China is rising. In addition to the recent resumption of production of some permanent magnet products, as well as the exhaustion of some inventory during the Spring Festival, the market trend of PR nd series products increased slightly, the supply in the field was tight, the recent demand for light rare earth was average, and the market price rose slightly. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturers reasonably controlled the sales. In addition, affected by the epidemic situation, some enterprises have not yet started construction, but the demand in the downstream has not changed much in the near future, and most rare earth prices are stable.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental inspection in China will not be reduced. In addition, Myanmar’s import is blocked, the supply and demand pattern is improving in a better way, and the transportation is still restricted in the near future, and the market price of rare earth is expected to continue to rise.

1、 Price trend:

On February 16, crude benzene commodity index was 60.94, which was the same as yesterday, 53.78% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 55.26% higher than 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: the pure benzene market is weak this week. Due to the impact of logistics and postponement of construction, Sinopec’s listing price has been lowered. The port inventory of pure benzene is large, downstream demand is limited, and transportation is limited. Crude benzol prices fell sharply this week after being affected. As of Friday, crude benzol prices in Shandong fell slightly to about 3550 yuan / ton. The operating rate of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises is about 50% up to now. Although the recent cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is relatively small, there are still many units that have not been started yet, and the demand for crude benzene is weakened.

Industrial chain: crude oil: the crude oil market is still restricted by the epidemic this week. However, the market is concerned about the process of OPEC production reduction, and the impact of the epidemic has eased. This week, the crude oil market recovered. WTI was up 2.2% and Brent was up 4.07% compared with February 7. Pure benzene: pure benzene port inventory accumulation. The process of downstream resumption is slow. In addition, styrene plant reduces production and raw materials are released. At present, pure benzene is in the situation of weak supply and demand, and is still constrained by transportation. Downstream: most of the downstream enterprises operate with reduced load and some factories stop. The price of styrene in Shandong this week was 6600 yuan / ton, down 5.04% from last Friday. Jinling aniline plant was shut down, the supply of goods decreased, but due to the constraints of downstream demand, the price increased slightly.

3、 Trend Forecast:

Next week, the oil price will focus on the process of OPEC production reduction and the recovery of the epidemic situation. In the near future, pure benzene enterprises will reduce the load operation, and the start-up of hydrogenation benzene enterprises will not be high. Crude benzene lacks strong support. In addition, the recent weak operation of pure benzene external panel. It is expected that crude benzene market will still be dominated by low consolidation next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the prices of domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose and fell mutually this week. In the first half of the week, the prices continued to decline. On Thursday and Friday, some enterprises showed a slight upward trend, but the overall trend still fell. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises is the weekly high price, RMB 6181 / T; at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises is the weekly low price, RMB 6067 / T, with a weekly decrease of 1.85%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Products: since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On November 11, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. Today, the price has fluctuated. At present, the market turnover is about 5750-6200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5900-6000 yuan / ton. There are many units in the upstream and downstream industries that have been shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate is still low; however, affected by the epidemic situation, some refineries ship at a low price under the pressure of inventory, and the market transaction is rare, the market is cold, and the wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of propylene will fluctuate in situ in recent days.

Industry chain: in the upstream, during the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market continued to decline substantially, and recently recovered slightly.

This week, PP market fell sharply, with a weekly decline of 4.81%, which had a significant negative impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market held steady this week, but fell 11.30% during the Spring Festival. It is expected that acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term, with some negative impact on propylene.

This week’s decline in propylene oxide Market after a slight correction, weekly decline of 5.11%, weekly amplitude of 5.47%, is expected to have a suppressive effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin prices fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 2.41%. In the future, it may be narrow range finishing operation, with limited negative impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 4.52%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

The octanol market held steady this week, but fell 3.86% during the Spring Festival, which had some negative impact on propylene.

The price of phenol Market in Shandong Province remained stable this week. During the Spring Festival, the price dropped only 0.49%, which had little impact on propylene.

The prices of acetone market in Shandong Province were all stable this week, and only declined by 0.44% during the Spring Festival, which had little impact on propylene.

Isopropanol market price slightly fluctuated this week, but back to its original position, the weekly rise and fall was 0. After the Spring Festival, the price rose 4.24%, which was good for propylene market price.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, in general, the propylene market has declined in recent days, and the change range of the crude oil market is limited, with a slight correction. However, the downstream operating rate is relatively low, and the plant shutdown situation is still the same, so it is expected that the propylene market will be relatively cold in recent days, and the price will mainly fluctuate.

1、 Melamine price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of melamine was temporarily stable as of February 12, which was the same as that of yesterday. The mainstream domestic melamine price on February 12 was around 5200-5400 yuan / ton. In a half year cycle, it fell 4.30% year on year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the domestic melamine market price was temporarily stable on December 12. Due to the delay in the downstream resumption of work and the limited impact of different degrees of logistics and transportation, some melamine enterprises do not offer prices temporarily. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

On February 11, the melamine commodity index was 63.80, the same as that on February 10, down 36.20% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-18), and up 11.99% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on February 11, 2020, among which titanium dioxide (2.18%), monoammonium phosphate (0.53%) and propane (0.34%) are the top three commodities. There are 14 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products were dichloromethane (- 5.00%), glycol (- 4.59%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.28%). The 11 day average rose or fell by – 0.29%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business association, the downstream resumption of work is delayed, the logistics is limited, the demand side is weak, and the inventory of melamine enterprises is under pressure. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by weak consolidation.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, after the Spring Festival, the price of the ortho benzene Sinopec contract fell sharply, while the market of ortho xylene fell. As of February 10, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 5800.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.94% compared with that of 6300.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene before the Spring Festival. Compared with the same period last year, the price dropped by 14.71%.

2、 Market analysis:

External offer

Product name region price rise and fall this week (compared with last week) price type unit

O-xylene South Korea 770-50 FOB USD / ton

O-xylene Taiwan 750-70 CIF USD / ton

O-xylene Southeast Asia 760-55 CIF USD / ton

O-xylene India 760-55 CIF USD / ton

O-xylene China 750-70 CIF USD / ton

O-xylene 876 1 FOB Rotterdam USD / ton

O-xylene 39.75-0.75 FOB US cents / lb

As can be seen from the table, the price of o-benzol in the external market fell after the Spring Festival. This week, the price of benzene in China was 750 US dollars / ton, down 70 US dollars / ton compared with that in last week; the price of benzene in South Korea and Southeast Asia was 50 US dollars / ton and 55 US dollars / ton respectively. The external price of o-benzene fell, the price of imported o-benzene fell, the market of port o-benzene fell, and the port inventory rose but was still at a low level. The overall external price drop was negative for the future o-benzene.

Factor analysis of industrial chain

From the trend of crude oil price, it can be seen that since the Spring Festival, crude oil prices have plummeted, dragging down downstream products, the cost of downstream products has fallen, the cost of raw materials for o-benzene has dropped, and the downward pressure has increased due to the weakening of the growth momentum of o-benzene.

From the perspective of downstream customers, after the Spring Festival, due to the impact of the epidemic, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises is low, most enterprises are out of work, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls, the downstream demand is poor, the market of ortho benzene is bad, and there is certain downward pressure on ortho benzene. In the future, the pressure of ortho benzene market decline increased.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, after the Spring Festival, affected by the epidemic, the crude oil price plummeted, and the cost of o-benzene raw materials fell; the downstream enterprises started at a low level, and the demand for o-benzene fell. O-benzene is mainly produced by Sinopec and PetroChina, and its normal operation rate is about 70%. However, due to the limited logistics, many traders have not entered the market, or can not normally leave the warehouse, and the market transaction is limited. In the future, it is difficult to determine the start date of the recovery of downstream phthalic anhydride enterprises. The demand for phthalic acid is declining, the price of the external market is falling, which is bad for the domestic phthalic acid market. The poor logistics and transportation lead to the overstock of phthalic acid inventory. The delivery pressure of phthalic acid in the future is large, and it is expected that the phthalic acid Market in the future will be weak.