This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China experienced a significant decline, with an average market price of 409890 yuan/ton on October 1st and 393490 yuan/ton as of October 9th, a decrease of 4.00%.
On October 8th, the first trading day after the holiday, the spot price surged to 415240 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.31%; On October 9th, the market experienced a significant drop, with prices falling back to 393490 yuan/ton, a single day drop of up to 4.00%. In the past two days, there has been a sharp reversal of the market trend, with a single day drop significantly greater than the pre holiday increase.
Macro analysis
The core driving force behind this round of sharp decline is the concentrated correction of macro expectations. Firstly, the revenue realization signal of overseas AI computing power leaders did not meet the extremely optimistic expectations of the market, leading to a comprehensive weakening of technology stocks and semiconductor sectors, and a cooling and reassessment of the demand narrative for tin as a “computing metal” in the market. Secondly, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting released a hawkish signal, indicating that there is still a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year. The US dollar index climbed to a nearly one-and-a-half-year high, forming a systematic valuation suppression on metals denominated in US dollars. Thirdly, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to ferment, international oil prices rise, energy inflation stickiness and concerns about global industrial activity slowdown are heating up simultaneously, and the risk aversion of funds has significantly increased, further suppressing risky assets.
The following is a fundamental analysis:
The rigid constraints on the supply side and mining side are still present. The progress of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar is lower than expected, and the current level of resuming production in the Manxiang tin mine is about 40% -50% of before the mining ban, with full recovery or postponement until 2027; Although Indonesia’s export quota has been raised, the actual increase is limited. The processing fee for domestic tin concentrate remains at a historical low (about 18000 yuan/ton for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan), and smelting profits are suppressed, making it difficult to significantly release refined tin production.
Inventory side – significant differentiation between internal and external factors. LME tin inventory has dropped to a historical low of 4405 tons, while domestic social inventory was about 9194 tons before the holiday, showing a pattern of “tight overseas and sufficient domestic”, and the overall supply and demand are in a weak balance state.
Demand side – structural differentiation intensifies. The expansion of semiconductor packaging and HBM storage production still drives up the amount of solder used, but the domestic semiconductor sector continues to weaken after the holiday, coupled with the negative contribution of photovoltaic modules to tin consumption of about 4882 tons per year. The performance of traditional consumer sectors in the peak season is not as expected, and downstream acceptance of high prices has significantly decreased, resulting in insufficient willingness to receive high-level goods.
comprehensive analysis
Overall, tin prices are facing a game between “macro suppression and strengthening” and “low inventory at the mining end to support the bottom” in the short term. At the macro level, doubts about AI investment returns and the high level of the US dollar pose upward pressure; At the fundamental level, rigid constraints at the mining end and low LME inventory provide bottom support, but high domestic inventory and lower than expected demand realization weaken upward elasticity. The expected operating range for the short-term Shanghai tin main contract is 380000-405000 yuan/ton, with core focus variables including the pace of macro sentiment recovery, the actual progress of Myanmar’s resumption of production, and the degree of fulfillment of domestic demand during the “Silver Ten” peak season.

In September, the PA66 market maintained a low and volatile consolidation, with a stable benchmark price of 19100 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The fluctuation within the month was limited, and the price was in the mid to low range of the year. After a small rebound in the early stage, the upward momentum gradually dissipated, and the market entered a volatile and bearish pattern, lacking sustained upward drive.
1、 Cost end
The upstream adipic acid and caprolactam raw materials lack strong upward momentum, and the support for raw material costs is relatively weak. At the beginning of the month, the phased stabilization of raw materials brought certain cost support, limiting the deep downward space of PA66; But there has been no sustained price increase upstream, which cannot drive the center of gravity of slicing costs upward. The cost side presents a pattern of “support at the bottom, no upward push”, which makes it difficult to drive PA66 to continue to strengthen.
2、 Supply and demand side
supply
The overall operation of PA66 plants in China remains at a moderate level, and the supply of sliced goods in the market is relatively sufficient. Some enterprises have demands for funds to be recovered from shipments, and the pressure on spot supply continues to exist.
Requirement
The downstream engineering plastics, modification, and automotive parts fields are mainly in high demand, and the release of downstream orders is not as expected. Procurement is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and there is a lack of willingness to replenish inventory on a large scale. Terminal enterprises are resistant to high priced raw materials, have weak willingness to chase after price increases, and find it difficult to form a sustained driving force on the demand side. The relatively abundant supply combined with weak demand has suppressed the market’s upward potential.
3、 Short term future forecast
Short term PA66 is likely to continue its volatile pattern and operate slightly bearish. The cost side is still bottoming out, and there is limited room for a significant deep decline; However, downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, lacking effective positive stimuli, and there is significant resistance to price breakthroughs. The market may continue to fluctuate within the range. The moving average signal has not shown confirmation of a full long position, and there are currently no clear upward trend conditions.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8885 yuan/ton on September 1st and 9351 yuan/ton on September 29th, an increase of 5.25%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11466 yuan/ton on September 1st and 12200 yuan/ton on September 29th, an increase of 6.40%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on September 1st was 10787 yuan/ton, and on September 29th it was 10562 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09%.
The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East in early September has driven up crude oil and ethylene prices, with strong cost support, which is the core driving force behind this month’s price increase; In the latter half of the year, oil prices slightly fell, supporting a marginal weakening.
In the first and middle of September, maintenance was tight and the operating rate was lower than in previous years, forming a tight balance to support the bottom; In the second half of the year, the equipment resumed production and the operating rate rebounded, coupled with the expectation of new capacity deployment, and the supply pressure gradually accumulated.
The peak season of “Golden September” did not meet expectations: although the overall downstream operating rate slightly increased compared to the previous period, the follow-up of new orders such as agricultural film and pipe materials was weaker than the same period in previous years. Downstream consumers generally purchase on demand and take as needed, with obvious resistance to high priced raw materials and weak willingness to chase after price increases.
The rebound of PE at the end of the month is a temporary recovery of crude oil costs due to the resurgence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the tight spot market at the end of the month, and the resonance of urgent stocking before the National Day holiday. Short term polyethylene mainly fluctuates at high levels.

In September, formaldehyde experienced a cost driven surge, rising in the second half of the month and then trading sideways at a high level, with the increase narrowing. As of September 28th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1755 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.59% from mid month and 69.16% from the beginning of the year, setting a new high in prices in nearly five years.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: The strong rise of methanol is the core driving force of this round. Upstream methanol spot prices rose by over 36% in September, while futures strengthened simultaneously. The closure of the strait and tight supply from Iran led to a significant decrease in port volume, and methanol port inventories hit a 13 year low, providing strong support for formaldehyde costs.
Supply side: Some devices reduce load and contract supply. In early September, some formaldehyde units underwent maintenance and load reduction, coupled with a low inventory pattern, resulting in a gradually tight supply of goods.
On the demand side: Golden September peak season provides temporary support, but the strength is limited. As the small holiday approaches, the downstream artificial board industry in the main production and sales area coincides with the replenishment cycle, and market transactions remain smooth. There is a phased replenishment support under the mentality of buying up and not buying down. However, the overall production of downstream sheet metal enterprises is average, with limited acceptance of high prices, and insufficient sustained driving force from the demand side for prices.
Market forecast:
Taking into account both fundamental and technical factors, formaldehyde is expected to maintain a pattern of high-level fluctuations and consolidation in the short term, with overall strength but limited upward potential. There is a risk of a pullback in the medium term.
Positive supporting factors: The current port inventory of methanol is at a historical low. If overseas supply disruptions continue, methanol will continue to operate at a high level, providing a strong cost bottom support for formaldehyde; The overall inventory of formaldehyde enterprises is not high, and coupled with the expectation of a round of replenishment in the board industry after the holiday, it will form a certain buffer for spot prices, and the probability of a deep decline is not high.
Main risk points: Firstly, methanol is the biggest uncertainty. If overseas shipping risks ease, imported goods return to ports, port inventories begin to accumulate, and methanol prices may fall from a high level, formaldehyde cost support will rapidly weaken; Secondly, the downstream demand gap persists, and there has been no substantial improvement in the real estate chain terminal. Under the pressure of high raw material costs for sheet metal enterprises, profitability is under pressure. Continued high prices will further suppress procurement. Once the post holiday replenishment ends, downstream demand will return to immediate use and procurement, and there is a lack of relay on the demand side; Thirdly, the formaldehyde industry has sufficient production capacity. If high profits continue, the early load reduction maintenance equipment will gradually resume production, and the increase in supply will suppress spot prices.

In September, the PTA market emerged from a trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, it was driven by the cost of crude oil and PX, coupled with tight supply caused by previous equipment maintenance, and spot prices fluctuated upwards. After a mid month surge, with the concentrated restart of multiple maintenance equipment, supply pressure rebounded. However, the downstream “Golden September” peak season did not meet expectations, and prices fell back, maintaining an overall range oscillation pattern.
In early September, PTA spot prices strengthened due to cost support, leading to an increase in spot prices. Starting from the middle to late of the month, multiple sets of PTA plants have been restarted and the operating rate of the industry has continued to rise. The market supply has gradually increased, and the market has shifted from destocking in the early stage to slightly accumulating inventory. Spot prices have fallen from high levels. As of September 24th, the benchmark spot price of PTA in East China was 7147 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.86% from the beginning of the month.
The international crude oil market trend first rose and then fell. As of September 23, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $92.16 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $95.41 per barrel. The ongoing geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous decline in the efficiency of cross-strait navigation, and the tightening of physical supply has provided solid bottom support for oil prices, resulting in an upward trend in crude oil prices. Starting from mid month, with the optimistic expectations of the market for the easing of the conflict in the Middle East and the restoration of crude oil supply, the trading logic of the previous supply panic has been completely reversed. The two benchmark crude oil prices have fallen sharply in sync, both hitting their lowest points since September 9th, and the energy sector as a whole has weakened.
From the perspective of PTA supply, the maintenance equipment was basically restarted in September, and the domestic PTA production steadily released. The processing gap remained at a relatively reasonable level, further stimulating the production enthusiasm of enterprises. The subsequent supply side increment still exists, which suppresses prices.
In addition, the demand side has become the core factor restricting the upward trend of the market. The traditional textile “Golden Nine” peak season has seen weak performance, causing downstream polyester enterprises to suffer losses. Multiple factories have implemented production cuts and maintenance, and the comprehensive operating rate has remained around 74%. The order follow-up of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is limited, and downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs. The willingness to actively replenish inventory is not strong, and there has been no obvious outbreak of end consumption. The demand side is difficult to drive PTA to continue to rise, and downstream stocking efforts are also relatively limited before National Day.
In the future, PTA will continue to experience a volatile pattern of cost bottoming out and supply and demand suppression. The cost of crude oil and PX raw materials provides support, but the supply continues to recover and demand falls short of expectations, resulting in insufficient momentum for a significant upward trend. Without the stimulation of a significant increase in crude oil prices, it is difficult to break out of a unilateral surge.