price trend
Recently, the domestic PC market has experienced a decline at a high level, and spot prices of various brands have been lowered. As of September 23rd, the PC mixed benchmark price was around 14950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.70% compared to the beginning of the month and a month on month decrease of 2.71%.
Root cause analysis
Supply side: Since early September, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has been average. The overall industry load rate is around 75%. The production loss gap remains stable, with an average weekly output of nearly 60000 tons. The smoothness of shipments from the aggregation plant is still acceptable. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market has seen a broad upward trend since early September. However, the cost of crude oil at the far end has recently plummeted. The Iranian President will attend a meeting in the United States on September 22, and US President Trump has publicly expressed his willingness to meet with the Iranian President. At the same time, Iran has conveyed clear conditions to the mediator to restart negotiations, marking a substantial diplomatic breakthrough signal in the ongoing US Iran confrontation. The focus of market trading has shifted from “supply interruption panic” to “situation cooling and supply recovery”, with phenol falling synchronously. Although the supply of genuine goods on site tends to be tight and balanced, and the inventory of factories and holders is healthy, the spot price of bisphenol A is high and market expectations are negative. It is expected that the spot price of bisphenol A may experience a decline, and the overall support for PC cost value will weaken.
In terms of demand: As we enter late September, there is still no significant peak season signal for PC downstream factory procurement, and the load position of terminal enterprises continues to operate at a low level. The demand for sheet metal shells and other materials is average. Although the tight supply and demand balance of PC in the early stage supported high quotes from merchants, buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods. In addition, there is no stock available before the holiday, and on-site trading is quiet. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and buyers are cautious in stocking up. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
Recently, the domestic PC market has experienced a high decline. Upstream bisphenol A prices are consolidating at a high level, but the support for PC from remote cost values has fallen sharply, resulting in a bearish outlook in the future. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is still acceptable, but there will be limited changes in future supply. On site trading is dominated by weak demand, and pre holiday stocking operations are rare. At present, the supply and demand of PC are relatively balanced, and the bearish trend of remote raw materials is gradually spreading. Business analysts believe that PC may fall upstream in the short term and suggest closely monitoring the crude oil and demand sides.

Market trend
In the past week (September 16-22), the PA6 spot market has shifted from a strong consolidation at a high level to a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the market remained at a high level, and mainstream PA6 slicing enterprises generally lowered their quotes by 500-700 yuan/ton during the week. The focus of market negotiations continued to shift downwards, and the bargaining space for actual orders increased, leading to a loosening of traders’ shipping mentality. At the technical indicator level, the 5-day, 10 day, and 20 day moving averages have all turned negative, forming a clear downward signal; From the perspective of cycle position, the 60 day cycle price is at a medium high level, while the 3-month and 1-year cycles are both in the high range, indicating a relatively high price.
influencing factors
Cost end
Upstream pure benzene oscillation weakened, and although the weekly closing price of caprolactam remained high, the driving force for further upward movement of raw materials weakened, resulting in a marginal weakening of cost support for PA6 chips. After the significant increase in slicing prices in the early stage, the processing profits of aggregation enterprises have been compressed, and it is difficult for the raw material side to continue driving slicing prices upward. The support of costs for the market has weakened.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, domestic PA6 polymerization plants are operating at a medium to high level, with sufficient supply of spot goods. After the initial price increase, the factory inventory gradually accumulated, and the mentality of raising prices in the early stage loosened. Mainstream factories voluntarily lowered their quotations, and the market circulation of goods is abundant. There is currently no substantial reduction support brought about by centralized maintenance. On the demand side, the actual fulfillment of the “Golden September” peak season fell short of expectations. Although downstream spinning and modified injection molding industries have urgent orders, there are limited new orders at the end. Downstream consumers have a strong resistance to high-level slicing, mostly maintaining a “buy as you go” model. They lack the willingness to actively replenish inventory in large quantities, resulting in significant resistance to high priced goods transactions. The demand side is unable to bear the high prices in the early stage, which has become the main drag on the market downturn.
Future forecast
The short-term PA6 market is expected to be weak and volatile in the future. The raw material caprolactam still has a certain cost to support the bottom, but the current full cycle price is at a high level, and downstream acceptance capacity is limited. The conditions for a significant rebound in the market are not yet met, and there is short-term room for correction and release. Focus on the price fluctuations of pure benzene and caprolactam, factory quotation adjustments, downstream terminal order landing, and pre holiday stocking progress.

On September 21st, the domestic epoxy propane market experienced a weak downward trend. The mainstream negotiated price in Shandong has dropped to 11070-11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; The Northeast region has synchronously decreased by 400 yuan/ton. As of September 21st, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 11233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.01% compared to the beginning of this month.
On the raw material side, cost support has weakened. Previously, the price of propylene was strongly supported by the rising costs of crude oil and propane, but after entering this week, there were signs of a decline in crude oil and propylene prices, and the cost side’s support for epoxy propane weakened, leading to a bearish market sentiment. As of September 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9641.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.39% compared to the beginning of this month (8977.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Early maintenance devices are gradually being restarted. The device has resumed operation, and the market supply has significantly increased compared to the previous period, easing the tight spot situation. The domestic capacity utilization rate has rebounded from around 64% to around 70%, and the expected increase in supply is gradually being implemented.
On the demand side, the peak season of “Golden September” has shown mild performance, and the overall operating rate of downstream polyether enterprises is not high. There is a clear resistance to high priced raw materials, and they mainly purchase small orders for essential needs, with limited increase in new orders. Other downstream products such as propylene glycol also show a stalemate pattern of cost support and weak demand, with insufficient follow-up on epoxy propane procurement.
Comprehensive forecast: Loose cost support combined with increased supply realization, coupled with weak downstream demand follow-up, may lead to a weak consolidation trend in the short-term epoxy propane market. It is necessary to focus on the pace of device restart and volume increase, as well as changes in downstream stocking willingness.

Since September, the domestic natural rubber market has experienced a period of initial rise and subsequent decline, with fluctuations within a range. As of September 20th, the market price of natural rubber in China was around 18150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14% from 18125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a peak of 18866 yuan/ton during the cycle. During the cycle, the main contract of Shanghai rubber hit a high of 19810 yuan/ton, reaching a new high in nearly two years. After surging, it fell back to around 18670 yuan/ton, and the long short game was intense. ​
Strong supply side support:
ANRPC predicts a global production of 15.32 million tons and consumption of 15.6 million tons of natural rubber in 2026, with a supply-demand gap of 280000 tons for the whole year.
Currently, Southeast Asia is entering a peak production season, but continuous rainfall is disrupting rubber harvesting, coupled with aging rubber trees in Thailand and rubber diseases in Indonesia, resulting in less than expected release of raw materials.
The port inventory maintains a destocking trend. As of September 13th, the total inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone and general trade was 603200 tons, a decrease of 15800 tons compared to the previous month, and continued to slowly reduce inventory. Domestic spot inventory is low. At the same time, the price of butadiene has risen, the cost of synthetic rubber has increased, and downstream substitution procurement has increased, further supporting the bottom rubber price.
The demand side suppresses the upward trend of prices. On September 11th, the domestic semi steel tire production rate was 65.53%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.93%; The operating rate of all steel tires was 63.53%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.06%. The inventory turnover of semi-finished steel tires is 44.7 days, while that of all steel tires is 36.4 days. The demand for end commercial and passenger vehicles is relatively weak. Although tire companies have issued price increase letters, with a 2% -5% increase, the high prices of raw materials have suppressed profits, and factories only maintain essential purchases. There is insufficient willingness to proactively replenish inventory, and the peak season delivery falls short of expectations. ​
Market forecast:
From a technical perspective, the current spot price of natural rubber has fallen below the 5-day moving average, indicating a decline in short-term bullish momentum; The 10/20 day moving average is still upward, and the medium-term trend remains strong. In the short term, it belongs to the high-level retracement stage, supported by the 20 day moving average. If the moving average is held, the market is likely to fluctuate at a high level; If it effectively falls below, further pullback will release pressure. The overall short-term trend is weakening, and the medium-term upward structure has not been completely destroyed. ​
Fundamentally speaking, natural rubber is expected to maintain a high range of volatility in the short term. The strong production season on the supply side is coming to an end, and the expectation of reduced production is increasing. Thai cup glue provides cost support at 74.2 baht/kg. The demand side is unlikely to show significant improvement in the short term, and the increase in tire maintenance is suppressing procurement. Combined with macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, it can be concluded that there is significant pressure above the rubber price and cost support below, making it difficult to see a significant unilateral market trend in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, nickel prices have shown a “V” shaped trend. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 125866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 2.32%.
Macroscopically, this week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp as scheduled to 3.75% -4.00%, with a bearish candlestick chart and the US dollar index returning to above 100%. However, the sentiment of “all bearish sentiment” dominated, and basic metals generally rose. The marginal suppression of nickel prices on a macro level has weakened.
In terms of raw materials, the new HPM policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the correction factor for low-grade wet ore has been reduced by about 45%. The new HPM for 1.2% nickel ore has dropped to $24.89 per wet ton, which is lower than the actual factory price, and the cost support for the mining end has been lowered. The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines has reached its peak, and port inventories have rebounded. The transaction price of nickel iron has fallen to 1070-1085 yuan/nickel, and the overall operation of the raw material side is weak.
On the supply side: Indonesia’s WBN has received new quotas from RKAB, strengthening expectations of loose supply, but ESDM denies approval news, and policy uncertainty still exists. El Ni ñ o drought poses a 30% -40% reduction risk for the wet process project in IMIP park, and a certain HPAL project plans to reduce production by about 30% in September. Domestic refined nickel losses and production cuts are accelerating, and the supply side is intertwined with long and short positions.
In terms of demand, the quality of the “Golden September” peak season is insufficient, and the inventory of stainless steel 300 series has risen to 590900 tons. Steel mills mainly purchase for essential needs, and no large-scale replenishment has been seen. Top battery cell manufacturers in the new energy sector have lowered orders, while lithium iron phosphate continues to occupy the market share of ternary batteries. Nickel sulfate procurement is mainly based on long-term agreements, with few individual orders, and both demand engines are weak at the same time.
Influencing factors: The core variables are the pace of RKAB quota approval in Indonesia and the actual implementation of HPM new policies, with the policy aspect becoming the main driver of short-term nickel prices. At the same time, attention should be paid to the linkage impact of the Fed’s subsequent interest rate hike path on the US dollar and non-ferrous sectors, as well as whether the demand for stainless steel during the peak season can show marginal improvement in late September.
In summary, the macro bearish phase provides a rebound window, but the expectation of loose supply and high inventory (LME 279000 tons) suppress the upper space, and there is support from smelting costs below. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a range bound fluctuation trend in the short term.