This week, supply has increased while demand has been weak. Manufacturers have continuously lowered their quotes, and the price of raw material propylene continues to rise sharply. The market has rebounded after a decline near the weekend. As of September 11th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 10900-11000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600-700 yuan/ton compared to last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is between 10650-10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Supply increase:
During the week, the acrylonitrile plant in East China gradually resumed as scheduled, and the overall supply significantly increased. According to statistics, this week (September 4-10), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 74.02%, an increase of 1.83% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 86400 tons, which is+0.22 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The supply gradually increased during the week, and the inventory of some enterprises rose. On September 9th, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 46500 tons, an increase of+0.65 million tons from last week.
Decreased demand:
This week, the overall utilization rate of downstream major industries’ production capacity decreased, with ABS production capacity utilization rate at 56.4%, a decrease of -1.1% compared to last week, and some factories experiencing a decrease in load; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 49.83%, which was -1.42% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 56.81%, an increase of 0.94% compared to last week. Overall, the demand for acrylonitrile has decreased.
Cost increase:
During the week, crude oil and propylene prices rose strongly, leading to a significant increase in raw material costs. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices experienced a wide decline, resulting in a significant decrease in theoretical production profits. According to statistics, as of September 11th, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market is based on 10000-10050 yuan/ton, with an average price of 10025 yuan/ton, an increase of 725 yuan/ton from last week; The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 12155 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 2.94%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -1155 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -1097 yuan/ton.
Post forecast: Currently, the fundamentals are still weak, but the pressure on the cost side is increasing. Suppliers are stabilizing prices and observing, and spot trading is also improving. The supply side maintains growth, but the increase is not as expected. Due to the significant increase in raw material costs, the pressure of losses may prompt some devices to reduce their load. At the same time, the mentality of buying up may also stimulate downstream users to follow up and replenish. There is also a certain demand for stocking before the long holiday. In addition, overseas supply is limited, and export volume has also increased in stages. Overall, the acrylonitrile market may have a slight rebound performance in the short term.

1、 Price trend
On September 10th, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong was referenced at 10200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton or 10.87% compared to September 1st (reference price of cyclohexanone was 9200 yuan/ton).
In early September, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong showed a gradually warming trend. The cyclohexanone market has been continuously rising since the beginning of the month, with the focus of negotiations breaking through the 10000 yuan mark. As of September 10th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region is around 10100-10200 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
In terms of cost: In early September, the market price of pure benzene on the raw material side of cyclohexanone rose at a high level, and the cost support provided by the raw material side to cyclohexanone increased. Driven by cost, the price of cyclohexanone continued to rise.
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the spot supply of cyclohexanone is relatively stable, and downstream buyers are cautious in the face of high prices, with weak transmission between supply and demand being the main factor.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is average, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment downstream. The cost support for cyclohexanone is still strong, and data analysts predict that in the short term, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly operate on a strong side. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost side news.

Market trend
The PA6 spot market has shown an accelerated upward trend in the past week (September 2-8). On September 2nd, the price of PA6 was reported at 13466.67 yuan/ton, and as of September 8th, it has risen to 14500.00 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 7.67% during the week. From the perspective of cycle position, the 60 day cycle price is in the high range; The prices of the 3-month and 1-year cycles are both in the high range, and the moving average model sends a clear upward signal. However, the price position of the multi cycle is already at a high level, and there is limited room for further upward movement. In the medium and long term, we need to be vigilant about the risk of a pullback.
influencing factors
Cost end
The upstream pure benzene price remained high, driving up the production cost of caprolactam. In the first week of September, Sinopec raised the weekly closing price of caprolactam by 230 yuan/ton to 13150 yuan/ton. The spot price of liquid caprolactam in East China also increased, and the support for PA6 raw material costs significantly strengthened. The rising cost of raw material procurement for aggregation enterprises has forced the slicing quotation to increase, and cost has become the core driving force behind the rise of PA6 in this round. However, there are expectations of resuming production in the later stage of the caprolactam unit, and the foundation for the continuous surge in raw material prices is insufficient.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, some PA6 polymerization units in China are under maintenance, and the overall operating level of the industry is moderate, with limited market spot growth; After initial consumption, the inventory of factories and traders is relatively low, and the reluctance of holders to sell is increasing. The willingness to ship at low prices is weakening, and the tight supply of goods is driving up spot prices.
On the demand side, downstream spinning and modification industries are expected to experience the peak season of the Golden September. Some downstream enterprises are concerned about the continued rise in raw materials and have carried out preventive replenishment, resulting in a rebound in inquiries and transactions; However, there has not been an explosive growth in actual orders at the terminal, and downstream factories have shown resistance to high-level slicing. Most companies still insist on purchasing on demand, with weak willingness to hoard goods on a large scale, and limited follow-up efforts on transactions under high prices. Driven by costs during the week, some downstream and trading companies restocked in small quantities, but the overall transaction quality was average.
Future forecast
The PA6 market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the short term in the future. The high level of upstream caprolactam provides cost support, coupled with the expectation of replenishing inventory during the peak season of Jinjiu, there is still some upward momentum in prices. However, in the short term, the price has already reached a high level at most, and downstream terminals have limited ability to take on the market. After a rapid rise, there is profit taking pressure in the market, and it is difficult to sustain a significant upward trend. Therefore, it is necessary to be alert to the risk of periodic pullbacks.

Current situation of ethylene glycol market
In September, the price of ethylene glycol continued to rise
The price of ethylene glycol will soar in 2026, and the current price has reached a new high in nearly 4 years. As of September 8th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 6458.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.13% from the market average price of 3864.17 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1st).
Port paper goods are mainly priced based on basis, with prices closely following fluctuations in the futures market. Recently, the futures price of ethylene glycol has risen significantly, and the base quotes of port paper cargo ethylene glycol base traders are high and firm. The contract basis for this week is 900-940 yuan/ton, and the quotation range is 6700-6900 yuan/ton.
Domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol spot (loose water, tax included, self pickup) vehicle manufacturers have raised the auction price to 6050-6400 yuan/ton.
2. In September 2026, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port was extremely low
On September 7, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 120000 tons, a decrease of 296000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on July 30, which was 416000 tons; Compared to March 2nd, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 926400 tons, a decrease of 806400 tons in inventory
At present, the inventory of ethylene glycol at ports is extremely low, setting a new historical low.
Houthi militants warn of Saudi energy facilities’ impact on ethylene glycol prices analysis
1、 Basic pattern of China’s ethylene glycol import
1. China’s total import dependence on ethylene glycol is about 27-28%, with a total import of 7.72 million tons by 2025.
2. Saudi Arabia is the largest source of ethylene glycol in China: imports from Saudi Arabia account for 54-55% of the total import volume, about 4.22 million tons per year; The overall Middle East accounts for over 71% of imports.
3. The ethylene glycol petrochemical bases in eastern Saudi Arabia, such as Jubail, heavily rely on the Strait of Hormuz for product exports; The shipment of the West Coast device will take place through the Red Sea Mandeb Strait, both of which are within the threat range of Houthi armed attacks.
4. There is coal to ethylene glycol production capacity in China as a hedge, but it is difficult to fully compensate for the significant shortage of Saudi Arabia’s supply in the short term.
2、 Key points of this event (news)
The Houthis have publicly warned that all important energy and industrial facilities in Saudi Arabia are legitimate targets of attack, in retaliation for Saudi military actions. Not only sea vessels, but also Saudi domestic petrochemical and oil and gas facilities are directly included in the threatened list.
The risk is divided into two layers: ① the risk of Saudi Arabia’s local ethylene glycol production plant being attacked and shut down; ② Persian Gulf and Red Sea shipping are under attack, posing a risk of disruption to export logistics.
3、 Transmission path of price increase
1) Emotions and Risk Premium
The expectation of supply interruption in market transactions does not necessarily mean that the device has been blown up.
If there is a risk of attack on the Saudi ethylene glycol petrochemical industrial zone, overseas traders will immediately raise their FOB prices; Domestic long funds will trade on the expectation of import reduction, while futures and spot prices will quickly rise.
Two shipping routes are under pressure simultaneously: the eastern route via Hormuz and the western route via the Red Sea’s Mandeb Strait. The Houthis are threatening the entire Saudi Arabian territory, and neither route can completely avoid danger. Shipping companies will add war risk and some ships will detour around Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a significant increase in sea freight costs and further pushing up the cost of arrival.

2) Scenario 1: Only verbal warning without actual striking device
The actual supply of goods has not been substantially interrupted, only the shipping risk has increased.
Price: Pulse like increase, risk premium, limited sustainability. Once the conflict does not escalate, the premium will quickly fall back; Domestic port inventory and arrival forecasts will once again dominate the market.
3) Scenario 2: If Saudi Arabia’s oil/petrochemical (ethylene glycol) plant is actually hit and damaged
Saudi Arabia has a total production capacity of 7.75 million tons of ethylene glycol, making it one of the world’s largest export destinations.
1. Equipment damage and parking: directly reducing global ethylene glycol export supply, China loses hundreds of thousands of tons of Saudi Arabian goods every month; The total amount of alternative sources (Canada, United States, Kuwait) is limited, making it difficult to fill the gap in the short term.
If there is an attack on the waterway, ships will seek refuge, and the arrival volume will significantly decline. Domestic port inventory will quickly deplete, and spot prices will continue to strengthen, with contracts in the near month far stronger than those in the far month.
3. Crude oil prices have risen synchronously, and Saudi Arabia’s ethylene glycol is a naphtha/ethane route, which has increased raw material costs and further supported the bottom of ethylene glycol prices.
4) Domestic hedging forces (restraining the upward trend)
1. The increase in domestic coal to ethylene glycol production capacity and the rise in coal to ethylene glycol operating rates after price increases can offset some of the import gap.
2. Downstream polyester demand, if raw material prices rise too quickly and weaving and polyester factories resist, there will be a decrease in load, which in turn will limit the space above ethylene glycol.
4、 Current market reality constraints
1. The Houthis have issued similar warnings multiple times in the past, with verbal threats outweighing actual attacks on production capacity. The biggest characteristic of geopolitical drive is its volatility, with the market rising and falling quickly, and highly depending on whether the conflict is resolved.
2. The current inventory location and monthly actual arrival forecast of ethylene glycol ports in China are the core indicators for verifying whether geopolitical factors are truly transmitted to domestic physical goods; If the arrival volume does not significantly decline, the market’s geopolitical premium will gradually be absorbed.
3. Far month contracts are more dependent on the increase in domestic production capacity, as geopolitical conflicts have a weaker driving force on the far month than in the near month, which can easily lead to a near strong far weak structure.
5、 Summary
1. Because over half of China’s ethylene glycol imports come from Saudi Arabia, the Houthis have listed energy facilities throughout Saudi Arabia as targets for attack, which has brought an upward risk premium to ethylene glycol and is one of the catalytic factors for the recent price strengthening.
2. The market height depends on the follow-up: whether there is a real attack on Saudi domestic petrochemical facilities, and whether Persian Gulf and Red Sea shipping is actually obstructed. Only verbal intimidation, the market belongs to pulse speculation; Once production capacity or shipping is substantially damaged, ethylene glycol will experience a sustained supply driven increase.
3. Risk: If the conflict eases, the previous geopolitical premium will quickly rebound, while the release of domestic coal production capacity and weakened downstream demand will suppress prices.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated widely this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 129116 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 5.72%.
Macroscopically, the US non farm payroll data for August exceeded expectations, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has risen to 66.9%. The strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed risk assets. The situation in the Middle East has repeatedly disturbed market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors continue to dominate short-term fluctuations in nickel prices. Macro pressure resonates with weak fundamentals, limiting the sustainability of nickel price rebound.
On the supply side, Indonesia’s RKAB quota remains at 260 million to 270 million tons, a significant contraction from 379 million tons in 2025. WBN has been approved to increase its quota by 25 million tons in the second half of the year. The IMIP park is expected to reduce production by 40% due to drought, but it has not been verified yet. LME stainless steel “Golden September” peak season has not yet been realized, with high production of 300 series but insufficient release of terminal consumption. Although social inventory has slightly decreased, it is still at a high level. The purchase of ternary precursors for new energy is only necessary, and there is a lack of incremental consumption of nickel sulfate. Both downstream industries are mainly driven by rigid demand, and there is no centralized replenishment drive.
Influencing factors: The pace of the final quota implementation of Indonesia’s RKAB and the execution of IMIP production reduction are key variables. The Federal Reserve’s September interest rate meeting and subsequent inflation data will affect macroeconomic sentiment. The actual recovery level of demand during the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” determines the pace of destocking. The approaching rainy season in the Philippines may provide seasonal support for mining areas.
In summary, this week the nickel market continues to have a weak supply-demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand continuing to suppress prices, and supply disruptions in Indonesia only providing temporary support. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will remain weakly fluctuating within the range of 127000 to 130000 yuan/ton. In the future, the focus will be on the implementation of Indonesia’s quota policy, the actual execution of IMIP production cuts, and the pace of demand recovery during peak seasons.