After New Year’s Day, the price of propylene did show a trend of stabilizing and slightly rising, with a short-term upward momentum, but the overall expected increase is limited. As of January 7th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 5797.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.40% compared to the beginning of this month (5717.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side:
Due to cost pressures, some PDH units are scheduled for maintenance, which may reduce supply. Enterprises in Shandong have low inventory and smooth shipments.
Demand side:
There is an increase in downstream production capacity in the northern market. Entering February, pre holiday stocking may lead to a temporary increase in demand. The overall market supply exceeds demand, and the propylene industry is in an expansion cycle. The loose fundamental pattern is difficult to fundamentally reverse in the short term.
The downstream demand support is limited, and the main downstream polypropylene has high cost pressure. Some units have been shut down. As of January 7th, the benchmark price of PP (drawing) in Shengyi Society was 6253.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.35% compared to the beginning of this month (6170.0 yuan/ton). There is some support for the demand for propylene. The sustainability of the upward trend after New Year’s Day needs to be observed, and the key depends on the downstream’s ability to accept it.
Epoxy propane (PO): The profit situation is relatively good (theoretical gross profit exceeded 1500 yuan/ton on January 2), with a high level of production and stable demand. As of January 7th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 7816.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% compared to the beginning of this month (7733.33 yuan/ton).
Cost side:
The core contradiction on the current cost side is the conflict between the “low prices” of raw materials such as oil and propane and the “deep losses” of PDH processes. This has led to both downward pressure on cost support and upward momentum due to supply contraction.
Price Outlook
Market average price forecast for January: about 5800 yuan/ton, key resistance level for subsequent increase: 5850 yuan/ton (key observation point for this round of rise). Overall judgment for the first quarter: there is a high probability of a slight rebound in the price center, and it is expected that there will be no strong unilateral rise.
Overall, the current market presents a situation of both short-term rebound and long-term pressure:
Short term opportunities: Tightening supply (low inventory, maintenance expectations) and seasonal demand (pre holiday stocking) are the main drivers of growth. Pay attention to whether the price can effectively break through the 5850 yuan/ton threshold.
Long term pressure: The industrial pattern of oversupply is the fundamental constraint. Although 1.9 million tons of new production capacity are planned to be put into operation in the first quarter, it mainly affects East and South China, with limited direct impact on the main market in Shandong.
Key variables: It is necessary to closely monitor the transmission of international oil price trends to costs, as well as the profits and operating conditions of downstream industries such as polypropylene, which determine the sustainability of the upward trend.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the nickel market will bottom out at a low level throughout 2025. As the end of the year approaches, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has announced that the government plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by about 34% in 2026. This news has caused nickel prices to soar to 137733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.77% for the whole year. The lowest price for the whole year was 115050 yuan/ton on December 16th, and the highest price was 137733.33 yuan/ton at the end of the year.
Market Review
In the first half of the year, nickel prices fluctuated significantly around industrial policies and macro factors in Indonesia and the Philippines, with a price focus of around 125000 yuan. In the first quarter, nickel prices rose to a high point of the year due to the combined effects of the reduction of quotas approved by Indonesia’s RKAB and the Philippines’ proposed ban on nickel ore exports, as well as seasonal tightening of fundamentals. But with the easing of disturbances on the resource side and the introduction of the US equivalent tariff policy in April, nickel prices quickly fell from their high levels.
During the four months from June to October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate narrowly around 120000 yuan. On the one hand, the easing of tariff concerns, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong demand for new energy vehicles provide support for nickel prices. On the other hand, high inventory and oversupply pressures continue to suppress the upward space. Until November, the expected tightening of the Indonesian mining sector within the year fell through, and downstream entered the off-season, with weak demand and further fermentation of surplus contradictions driving down nickel prices.
The “V-shaped” trend in nickel prices in December, coupled with concerns about high nickel inventory and weak demand in the first half of the month, led to a continuous decline in nickel prices. The real turning point began on December 17th, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled and China’s economic data rebounded, providing a systematic upward financial environment for commodities; On the other hand, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) claims that the government plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by about 34% by 2026, providing a dual driving force for an epic rise in nickel prices, from a drop to a strong rise in an instant.
Nickel supply
Loose supply of nickel ore
This year, the actual supply of nickel ore is relatively loose. On the one hand, although the final data of RKAB approval in Indonesia has not been released this year, it is at least 298.5 million wet tons, higher than last year’s annual production of about 271.89 million wet tons. On the other hand, Indonesia has significantly increased its imports of Philippine nickel ore this year, filling the domestic supply-demand gap. As of October 2025, Indonesia’s imports of Philippine ore increased by 36.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 3.59 million tons.
Global nickel production
According to the latest data report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in October 2025, the global refined nickel production was 326400 tons, with a consumption of 297200 tons and an oversupply of 29100 tons. From January to October 2025, the global refined nickel production was 3.2046 million tons, with a consumption of 2.8666 million tons and an oversupply of 338000 tons. In October 2025, the global nickel ore production was 342600 tons, and from January to October 2025, the global nickel ore production was 3.5574 million tons.
China’s nickel production

According to statistics, from January to October, China’s primary nickel production was 835000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, the production of electric nickel was 326000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%; The production of nickel containing pig iron was 229000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%
Nickel import and export volume
According to Chinese customs data, the import volume of refined nickel in China in November 2025 was 12670.512 tons, an increase of 2929 tons or 30.07% compared to the previous month; An increase of 3676 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 40.86%. This month, the net import of refined nickel was 1744.426 tons, a decrease of 259.79% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 160.39% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel in China was 207794.526 tons, an increase of 128815 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 163.10%. The import dependence of China’s nickel resources, especially nickel iron and refined nickel, is extremely high. The main sources of refined nickel have shifted from Russia to Norway and South Africa, while nickel iron supply is almost entirely dependent on Indonesia.
Nickel demand
Proportion of downstream nickel
In terms of global demand for primary nickel, stainless steel is the main demand, while batteries provide the main increment. Stainless steel, batteries, alloys, electroplating, and others account for 65%, 15%, 13%, and 7% respectively. From the perspective of pure nickel, alloys and castings are the main application areas, accounting for nearly 50%. The demand for nickel beans is replaced by nickel intermediate products (MHP/high ice nickel), resulting in only 1% of pure nickel consumption at the battery (nickel sulfate) end.
Nickel apparent consumption
According to customs data statistics, the apparent consumption of nickel has been on the rise since 2022, reaching the level of 2021.
Under the drag of real estate, stainless steel is unlikely to perform beyond expectations
Over the past 25 years, China’s stainless steel production has maintained steady growth. From January to November, the production of 300 series stainless steel increased by 7.4% year-on-year (previously 8.5%). However, as a post cyclical commodity in the real estate market, downstream demand has been relatively weak due to the drag of the real estate market, and the overall inventory of stainless steel is high and difficult to clear. At the same time, the profit of stainless steel production from primary nickel is sluggish, and it is expected that the stainless steel sector will not perform beyond expectations in the 26th year.
The proportion of ternary battery vehicles is relatively small
In 2025, the demand for new energy will be strong, and the production of ternary precursors will return to the high level of 2022. As of November, the production of ternary precursors has increased by 11.41% year-on-year compared to the previous year. However, in the past 25 years, the proportion of ternary batteries installed in new energy vehicles has remained below 20%, and the installation structure has seriously constrained the demand increment of the new energy sector. According to TrendForce, all solid state batteries are currently in the stage of transitioning from prototype cells to engineering applications. It is expected to begin demonstration applications at the thousand vehicle level in the electric vehicle field in 2027-2028 and begin large-scale applications after 2030. The demand growth for new energy in 2026 may be relatively limited.
Electroplating, alloys, and special steel have limited impact due to their small volume

Electroplating, alloys, and special steel are the main components downstream of refined nickel. The demand for nickel in electroplating remains stable, with an annual nickel consumption of around 43000 tons; The nickel consumption of alloys and special steel has steadily increased since 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 14% in the past five years. However, the proportion of this demand in the total demand for nickel is relatively low, and the overall impact is relatively small.
Policy aspect
Indonesia’s policy shift towards quota tightening and cost restructuring drives nickel price center upward
At the end of the year, Indonesia gave two key policy signals: one is a significant reduction in mining quotas: the target for nickel mining quotas (RKAB) in 2026 is set at 250 million tons, a decrease of more than 34% from 379 million tons in 2025; The second adjustment is the pricing method: the plan is to revise the calculation formula for the reference price of nickel ore, treating cobalt and other associated metals as independent commodities and levying franchise fees.
If these two policies are implemented, they will directly push up the cost of nickel mining from two dimensions: the total supply of mineral resources and the taxable cost of mining. It is expected that the cost center of Indonesia’s nickel industry chain will systematically shift upwards in the future and be transmitted to the global market through the trade chain, becoming a key factor supporting nickel prices in the medium to long term.
Summary and Outlook for 2026
In summary, the pattern of nickel surplus is already evident, and the resource side policies of Indonesia and the Philippines are the main variables in nickel fundamentals. Before the final implementation of Indonesian policies, as a “giant” that accounts for over 50% of global nickel supply, Indonesia’s production adjustment is enough to shake the global supply and demand pattern.
If the Indonesian policy is implemented, the cost of mining will systematically rise, coupled with the narrowing space for the downward movement of domestic integrated process costs, and the “bottom range” of nickel prices is expected to solidify. The current price around 130000 yuan/ton is close to the “break even line” of most enterprises. In terms of demand, the demand for new energy batteries (especially high nickel ternary batteries) is expected to rebound in 2026, and the destocking of the stainless steel industry is coming to an end. Downstream replenishment demand may form a “bottom line” for nickel prices.
However, looking back at 2024, Indonesia’s final approved quota was higher than the initial planned target, and there is a possibility that the policy may be more grandiose than practical. If the actual quota does not significantly shrink by 2026, the rebound of nickel prices may be limited.
Overall, if Indonesia’s 2026 quota is reduced as planned and tax adjustments are implemented, the contraction of nickel ore supply will shift from “expectation” to “reality”. Coupled with rising costs, nickel prices are expected to hit the range of 140000-150000 yuan/ton. There is no expected significant improvement in demand. It is expected that the nickel price will move up in 2026. If it is well settled, the price is expected to reach 150000 yuan/ton. If it is not awesome, it may fluctuate around 130000 yuan/ton.

I. Trend Analysis
According to the company’s data, in 2025, spot copper prices have a shocking upward trend, at the beginning of the year quote of 73,830 yuan / ton, at the end of the year rose to 99,180 yuan / ton, an increase of 34.34% throughout the year, the highest price for the whole year broke the threshold of 100,000 yuan (101,053.33 yuan / ton on December 29), also the highest price in 15 years, the lowest point was 73,618.33 yuan / ton on April 8, the maximum amplitude of 37.27%.
The main reasons for the increase in copper prices in 2025:
In addition to force majeure such as earthquakes, mudslides and other factors, structural constraints have also become the main influencing factors of the decline in copper ore supply, such as declining resource quality, insufficient capital expenditure, slower approval of new projects and environmental policy restrictions.
On the demand side, due to new energy and AI twin-wheel drive, copper consumption is much more resilient than expected.
3, due to the expected effect of the United States tariffs, the supply of pure copper in overseas non-U.S. regions continues to tighten.
Supply side
Domestic copper production capacity 2011-2025
According to the data, since 2021, the domestic copper production capacity has increased year by year. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2025, China’s refined copper (electrolytic copper) production of 123.6 million tons, an increase of 11.9% year on year; in January-November, the cumulative production of electrolytic copper of 13,323 million tons, an increase of 9.8% year on year.
Copper import and export data
Compared to 2024, copper imports decreased in 2025, and exports increased. According to customs data, copper imports are much larger than copper exports, and China’s refined copper imports in January-November 2025 totaled 310.31 million tons, down 8.27% year-on-year. China’s refined copper exports in January-November 2025 totaled 698.5 million tons, up 58.46% year-on-year.
2025LME Copper Stock
As shown above, the overall LME copper inventory in 2025 will be highly volatile. Inventories and copper prices are inversely proportional in previous years, but this year the inverse relationship is not obvious. The factors that influence copper prices are multifaceted, previously relying on LME inventories, but this year is due to the shortage of copper mines, increased new demand and the “rainbow effect” in the United States.
Demand
Appearance of copper consumption
Since 2021, the apparent consumption of copper has increased year by year, and the growth rate has slowed for the past two years. According to statistics, in 2025, the apparent consumption of 17.42 million tons, the total annual apparent consumption of 2025 is equivalent to 2024.
Appearance of copper consumption
The demand structure for copper is undergoing a new and old dynamic energy switch. Emerging fields represented by new energy, digital economy and artificial intelligence are growing rapidly, and the growth of new industries is driving the increase in copper consumption demand. New energy vehicles, wind power and photovoltaic new installations, and data center copper use has jumped from 6.8% to 19.4% in 2021, becoming an important support for the growth of copper demand.
Power Cable:

During the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan”, the annual growth rate of investment in power grid projects is expected to exceed 5%. Under the rapid development of many scenic bases and the continuous increase in the demand for hydropower outputs, ultra-high voltage construction is likely to maintain high intensity in the coming years. At the same time, the intelligent upgrading of the power grid will continue to increase.
According to the National Energy Administration, the national grid project completed investment of 482.4 billion yuan in January-October 2025, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year. According to the two grids 2025 working meeting, the national grid is expected to invest more than 650 billion yuan for the first time throughout the year, and the southern grid fixed asset investment arrangement of 175 billion yuan, another record high. Analysts estimate that the national grid project investment amount is about 2.8 trillion yuan during the “14th Five-Year Plan”, with an average annual investment amount of about 550 billion yuan.
Completion of national real estate
In January-October, the sales area of new commercial houses was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year-on-year; of which residential sales area was down 7.0%. Square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Of these, the residential completed area of 24.86 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%.
In terms of domestic demand, China’s electricity exports fell year-on-year starting in April 2025, breaking the recovery trend since 2023. Short-term pressure is concentrated. After the US imposed tariffs on China, China’s exports to the US cost rose, and demand contraction suppressed export growth under overseas inflation. Tired, the future appliance industry will present a pattern of “stable domestic sales, export support”.
Automotive Production
In terms of automobiles, in November 2025, China completed 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles, respectively, an increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, respectively, year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 3.4%, respectively. In January-November, China completed 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles, respectively, year-on-year growth of 11.9% and 11.4%. Sales accounted for 40.9% of total new car sales.

Artificial Intelligence
AI data centers are triggering an explosion of copper demand. McKinsey statistics show that the installed capacity of the global deployed data center will reach 82GW in 2025. With the explosive growth of AI technology and computing power demand, the process of AI transformation of data centers and the construction of new AI-dedicated data centers is accelerating. The global data center capacity is expected to reach 102GW in 2026, with AI-loaded global data centers expected to reach 62GW and non-AI workload capacity of 40GW. It is estimated that the data center is expected to use 590,000 tons of copper in 2026 and 1.4 million tons in 2030.
Impact factors for 2026
Global Mining Project 2025
Several projects resumed production in 2026-2027 led to an increase in mine-end supply of 79.2/961,000 tons. The increase in the contribution of new mines in 2026-2027 is less, the main increase comes from the recovery of production at mines such as Grasberg, Kakula, Batu Hijauin addition to the CobrePanama mine is expected to start negotiations in 2026 and resume production in 2027, but the continuing high copper mine interference rate may affect the recovery of mine production.
Copper Supply Continues to Tension in 2026
Since 2025, the global copper mine supply side interference rate has increased sharply, mining accidents have occurred frequently, and repeated production interruptions and suspensions have led to the downward revision of copper mine production expectations throughout the year. The originally expected 520,000 tons of copper mine increase has not been realized as scheduled; Projects with significant reductions include Grasberg in Indonesia, Kamoa-Kakula in Congo, El Salvador in Chile. Teniente, QB mine in Chile; global copper mine is expected to increase by 1.5% to 23.32.4 million tons of metal in 2025. In 2026, the main emission mines are Giant Dragon Phase II, Amman in Indonesia, Antamina in Peru, Miador Phasell in Ecuador, Udokan and Malmyzh in Russia, and QB2 in Chile, with a total increase of 500,000 tons.
In 2026, the supply and demand pattern of the copper market turned tight, and the supply side was constrained by the slowdown in the growth rate of copper ore reserves and the decline in grade, and the gap in copper ore concentrate expanded to 254,000 tons.
Copper Mining Fee Reduced to 0
On December 19, 2025, representatives of the Chinese copper smelter and Antofagasta finalized the 2026 copper ore processing fee benchmark of $0/ton and 0 cents/lb; and the 2025 copper ore processing fee benchmark of $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/lb. In 2025, the smelter has not yet seen a large-scale reduction in production, but the decline in smelting profits in 2026, raw material supply constraints will continue to test the stability of the smelter to maintain a high growth rate.

Growing demand for new energy
New energy field has become the core engine of copper consumption growth, its use of copper strength is not low, overlapping industry expansion, continuously push the increase of copper demand. From the single consumption dimension, new energy vehicles (especially pure electric vehicles) The amount of copper used to reach 2-3 times that of traditional fuel vehicles, the single GW of photovoltaic installed copper consumption exceeds 3,000 tons, the single GW of onshore wind installed copper consumption exceeds 4,000 tons, and the sea wind is up to 10,000 tons level; and from the industry scale, the global new energy vehicles, wind power growth rate will be maintained at more than 10% mid-high level in 2026, the photovoltaic demand is affected by industry competition and policy impact in stages, slightly declining year on year. It is estimated that in 2026, the three major new energy use copper 5.03 million tons, an increase of 8.4% year on year, is the main support for the growth of copper demand.
AI Data Center Boosts Demand for Copper
AI data centers are triggering an explosion of copper demand. McKinsey statistics show that the installed capacity of the global deployed data center will reach 82GW in 2025. With the explosive growth of AI technology and computing power demand, the process of AI transformation of data centers and the construction of new AI-dedicated data centers is accelerating. The global data center capacity is expected to reach 102GW in 2026, with AI-loaded global data centers expected to reach 62GW and non-AI workload capacity of 40GW. It is estimated that the data center is expected to use 590,000 tons of copper in 2026 and 1.4 million tons in 2030.
Growing demand in traditional areas
Traditional consumption, global grid investment in 2023 began to open a rapid growth momentum, reaching $ 356 billion in 2023, 2024 and $ 388 billion in 2024, an increase of 10% and 9% year-on-year. In 2024, China, North America and Europe grid investment is $ 83 billion, $ 114 and $ 8.4 billion, respectively, accounting for 72% of global grid investment.
Global electricity demand growth overlaps the general aging of the European and American grid, and grid investment is necessary. Global electricity demand is growing steadily, pulling power equipment and grid input; inventory grid aging replacement needs, currently the average service life of the European grid is 50 years, and the average service life of the North American grid is 40 years, all of which are close to the design service life, aging asset replacement constitutes a long-term investment driver.
Goldman Sachs forecasts significant growth in Western grid investments, with European grid investments expected to grow by 55% by 2035 and US grid investments expected to grow by 24% by 2030; total global grid investments will reach $12 trillion between 2025 and 2030. International Energy Agency (IEA) and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Annual investment forecasts of $600 billion and $670 billion are also given. Combining BNEF, IEA and other data, global grid investment is expected to grow at a compound rate of 8% in 2025-2050. From a subregional perspective, Oceania, Africa, and Asia will contribute more to the growth rate, with CAGR reaching 8% and above, while the Americas and Europe will also grow at a growth rate of more than 7%, and grid investment in copper and metal demand will be significantly boosted.

Macro-policy stimulation of demand
In 2026, global monetary policy will usher in a clear shift. Based on the Fed’s resumption of interest rate cuts in September 2025, it is likely that the Fed will officially begin a cycle of sustained interest rate cuts. The market generally expects that the Fed’s rate cut pace will be clearer in 2026, with two gradual rate cuts expected throughout the year. More capital flows into the commodity market, driving its prices up.
Summary and Forecast
In 2025, global copper prices will show a shocking upward trend, and the price center will rise significantly.
The supply side is constrained by multiple factors such as the slowdown in the growth rate of copper ore reserves, the decline in ore quality, the scarcity of large-scale new projects and the frequency of mine interference events, and the global copper ore production growth rate is only 2.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the growth rate of 2.6% of native refined copper production, and the copper ore gap is expected to expand to 254,000 tons.
On the demand side, high demand from emerging fields such as new energy, artificial intelligence, superimposing global grid investment and traditional demand to form a synergy, driving global refined copper consumption to grow 2.6% year-on-year to 28.65 million tons, the supply and demand pattern from a slight surplus in 2025 to close balance, the gap is expected to be about 10,000 tons throughout the year.
Overlapping the global liquidity easing brought about by the Fed’s interest rate cuts, the weakening macro dividend of the dollar index, and the market characteristics of global inventory structural imbalances that enhance price elasticity, the price of copper is dynamic, and the annual price center is expected to continue to rise in 2026.

In 2025, the natural rubber market will have abundant supply, stable and limited demand, and fluctuating prices
In 2025, the overall trend of natural rubber will show a “V-shaped” pattern of first rising, then falling sharply, and then bottoming out and rebounding. The price fluctuation throughout the year will be significant, operating in the range of 13550-17400 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of the year, from January to February, the peak was reached due to seasonal tight supply, demand activation, and strong prices. At the beginning of the year, the price started at about 16890 yuan/ton and quickly surged to the highest price of 17400 yuan/ton within the year.
From March to May, a downward trend began. Since March, factors such as strong production in major production areas, disturbance of macro trade war news, and high inventory have led to a significant decline in the price of Tianjian. At the end of May, it reached the lowest price of 13550 yuan/ton for the year, a decrease of 22.31% from the highest point of the year, making it the stage with the deepest decline for the whole year.
Affected by factors such as weather and geopolitical disturbances, domestic shutdowns, and downstream stocking from June to the end of the year, natural rubber prices gradually rebounded after hitting bottom. Although there was a slight correction during this period, the overall trend showed a fluctuating upward trend. At the end of the year, the price rebounded to around 15000 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 13.80% from the low point of the year, but still far below the price at the beginning of the year.
Global natural rubber supply growth is weak in 2025, and China’s natural rubber supply is still mainly imported
In 2025, the global market supply of natural rubber will experience sluggish growth and structural changes. According to the latest report from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber production is expected to reach 14.892 million tons in 2025, with a slight increase of only 0.5% year-on-year. Traditional main players (Southeast Asia) are generally under pressure: traditional countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia are expected to experience a decline in yield due to factors such as aging trees and switching to other crops. Thailand and China support growth: Thailand, the world’s largest producer, is expected to increase production by 1.2%; China’s domestic production is expected to increase by 6%. The rapid rise of emerging production areas (Africa): African production areas represented by Cote d’Ivoire are growing rapidly and are becoming an important supply supplement. In the long run, the global rubber tree cutting area has shown negative growth for the first time, and the aging trend of tree age structure is obvious (the proportion of high-yielding trees continues to decline), which means that the potential for increased production in the next few years is very limited.
In 2025, domestic natural rubber will still be mainly driven by imports, and the trend of diversified import sources is evident. China’s dependence on foreign natural rubber is over 80%, and the abundant domestic supply is mainly due to the significant increase in import volume. From January to November 2025, China’s cumulative imports of natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, cigarette adhesive sheet, primary shape, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) reached 5.8716 million tons, an increase of 16.98% compared to the same period in 2024. Thailand is the largest source of imports, while African regions such as Cote d’Ivoire have seen a significant increase in imports, becoming an important emerging source.
In 2025, the demand for natural rubber in China will mainly be driven by the domestic automobile market and tire exports

On the one hand, the domestic automobile market will experience steady growth in 2025. Domestic automobile production and sales have maintained growth, driving the demand for tire matching. Passenger car sales increased by 13.6% year-on-year in the first 8 months. And the outbreak of new energy vehicles: The sales of new energy vehicles are growing rapidly, and the demand for high-end natural rubber in their high-performance tires is increasing by more than 20%, becoming an important structural growth point. In addition, the “trade in” policy and the rural promotion of new energy vehicles have continued to boost related demand.
On the other hand, domestic tire exports will maintain growth in 2025. From January to November 2025, China’s cumulative export of rubber tires reached 8.83 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, the export volume of new inflatable rubber tires reached 8.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. In 2025, tire exports maintained total growth by exploring new markets such as the Middle East and Africa under the pressure of traditional European and American markets. Overall, in 2025, exports to the European Union were strong in the early stage but later declined, while exports to the United States significantly shrank. Strong demand from regions such as the Middle East and Africa has become a new growth point.
Overall, in 2025, domestic natural rubber demand will demonstrate resilience supported by strong exports and robust domestic demand, but the growth potential will be suppressed by overseas trade barriers and high domestic inventories.
Outlook for the Natural Rubber Market in 2026
The future supply of Tianjiao will face a long-term contraction trend, and short-term supply changes will be affected by multiple factors with certain elasticity
Due to factors such as the proportion of rubber trees over 30 years old in some Southeast Asian countries exceeding 40% and the continuous decline in the proportion of high-yield trees, the future global rubber producing countries (especially Southeast Asia) will face long-term structural problems such as declining or even negative growth in cutting area and aging of rubber trees. This determines that the growth potential of global natural rubber supply in 2026 is extremely limited, and global supply will show a stable and shrinking trend. However, the increase in production in emerging production areas (such as Ivory Coast in Africa), weather conditions in major production areas, and geopolitical situations (such as the Thai Cambodian border) will affect the pace of short-term supply release.
Natural rubber domestic demand will maintain steady growth in 2026
In 2026, the demand for natural rubber in China will still be dominated by tires. Firstly, the domestic promotion fee policy “Notice on the Implementation of Large scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade in Policy by 2026″ has been released, with subsidies concentrated in several areas such as automobiles, home appliances, digital and intelligent products. Automobile consumption has received certain encouragement, and secondly, new energy vehicles continue to maintain high-speed growth. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said to Hu Shi that he predicts the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in China for the whole year of 2026 to be around 10%, or 14.137 million units (with an expected sales volume of 12.852 million units in 2025).
The steady growth of automobiles has driven a steady increase in domestic demand for tires. According to industry forecasts, it is expected that the production of all steel tires will increase by 3-4% and the production of semi steel tires will increase by 5-6% in 2026. All steel tires are mainly used to support commercial vehicles and construction machinery, supported by infrastructure investment and logistics transportation demand; Half steel tires are mainly used in passenger cars, benefiting from consumer upgrades and the development of new energy vehicles.

Overall, the demand for natural rubber in China will continue to steadily increase in 2026 under the guidance of automotive tires.
In 2026, the natural rubber market will still be affected by seasonal patterns, substitutability, and policy factors. From a historical price perspective, from the fourth quarter of each year to the Spring Festival of the following year, driven by reduced supply and pre holiday stocking, rubber prices usually have a rebound trend. In addition, if synthetic rubber maintains a low price due to the weakening of raw material (butadiene) costs, it will create substitution pressure on the price of natural rubber. Finally, policies such as the EU’s’ No Deforestation ‘Regulation (EUDR) may push up production costs in the long run.
Overall, the natural rubber market in 2026 is a pattern of “bottom and top”. The ‘bottom’ comes from the long-term rigid contraction of the supply side, which determines that the price center of gravity is difficult to fall deeply. The ‘top’ is subject to uncertainty on the demand side (especially in overseas markets) and pressure from the substitution of synthetic rubber. From a price perspective, it is expected that the price of natural rubber will fluctuate between 14000-18000 yuan/ton in 2026.

Silver prices experience a significant correction
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market price on the afternoon of December 31, 2025 was 17004 yuan/kg, a decrease of 12.4% from the peak spot price of 19414 yuan/kg this month.
Futures market: On December 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai Bank (AG2602) continued to fluctuate widely but showed an extreme trend of “rising and then falling unilaterally”. The intraday fluctuations were more dominated by bears, as follows:
Opened at 18508 yuan/kg, briefly surged to a intraday high of 18877 yuan/kg after opening; Subsequently, due to the resonance of factors such as the sharp decline in the external market, the withdrawal of funds before the holiday, and the increase in margin, the price unilaterally declined and accelerated its plunge in the afternoon, reaching a low of 16900 yuan/kg; The final closing price was 17103 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1037 yuan or 4.23% from the previous trading day’s settlement price of 17859 yuan/kg, with a intraday fluctuation of 11.21%; The trading volume was 735900 lots, a significant decrease from 1442800 lots on the 29th, with a holding volume of 146800 lots, indicating a significant risk aversion and exit feature of funds.
Silver has repeatedly hit new highs before experiencing a significant pullback, which is the result of regulatory deleveraging, capital concentration for profit taking, holiday liquidity depletion, and technical overbought resonance. as follows:
Tightening regulatory policies and pressure on leveraged funds: On December 29th, CME raised silver margin by about 13.6% again (the third cumulative increase of over 25% within the year). In the previous period, the exchange simultaneously raised margin and limit up and limit down. High leverage long positions were forced to close due to pressure to replenish positions, triggering a “long kill long” chain of sell offs. Programmed stop loss orders emerged during the day.
At the end of the year, funds were concentrated for profit taking: silver increased by over 180% during the year, and institutions and funds faced year-end settlement and tax selling pressure, locking in profits in a concentrated manner; Approaching the New Year holiday, funds are hedging and leaving, and the fragile position structure is causing a stampede.
The drying up of holiday liquidity amplifies volatility: During the Christmas New Year holiday, market liquidity decreased by about 40% compared to normal days. Market makers had low willingness to quote, and the bid ask spread widened. A small number of large orders could trigger severe price fluctuations, exacerbating the extent of the correction.
Technical oversold repair: Silver RSI has been above 85 for several consecutive days, the gold to silver ratio has fallen to a nearly five-year low, and prices are out of touch with industrial demand such as photovoltaics and electronics. Technical correction pressure has accumulated, triggering large-scale stop loss and short covering.
Marginal cooling of geographical and macro expectations: rumors of peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict heated up, and short-term risk aversion demand fell back; At the same time, the market’s expectation of a Fed rate cut has been overdrawn in advance, lacking new catalysts to push prices further upward.