1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 135650 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the beginning of the week and up 5.22% year-on-year.
In the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 6 times, with recent fluctuations being the main trend.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, the ADP employment figures in the United States increased by 62000 in March, higher than the market expectation of 40000 and roughly the same as last month’s 63000. Coal, originally scheduled to be implemented on April 1, 2026. The nickel export tariff plan is still awaiting the results of joint research between the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and the Ministry of Finance.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in March was 37337 tons, an increase of 14.53% month on month and 1.83% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for April is 38830 tons, an increase of 4.00% month on month and 6.53% year-on-year.
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with better demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. In March, the stainless steel plant resumed production, but the current profit of the steel plant is low, and large-scale procurement has not yet begun after the holiday; The high price of MHP provides support for the cost of nickel sulfate, but the weak demand during the off-season is mainly due to fluctuations in nickel sulfate prices
In summary, the supply of nickel ore on the raw material side is relatively tight in reality, and the pace of supply release slows down during the Ramadan period in Indonesia; Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the shipping costs of nickel mines in the Philippines have significantly increased, and the bidding prices for Philippine mines have continued to rise. The price of high nickel pig iron is stable but slightly strong, and the supplier’s enthusiasm for price increases, but steel mills have a clear mentality of price reduction. Short term shutdown of wet process plants in Indonesia reduces short-term supply. The continuous import of resources from Russia and Indonesia, coupled with the gradual release of new production sources into the market, still puts overall pressure on the supply of refined nickel. The performance of domestic and foreign markets is differentiated, with mild destocking overseas and continued stockpiling domestically. Domestic exports continue to be hindered. Overall, Indonesia’s policy attitude is tough, macro expectations are fluctuating, and the accumulation of contradictions on the raw material side supports prices. Insufficient digestion of actual inventory remains a constraint, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8533 yuan/ton, an increase of 2500 yuan or 41.44% from March 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 6033 yuan/ton).
1、 Price Trend Review
In early March (3.1-3.10), due to the impact of the geopolitical situation, the cost side drove the rapid rise of the n-butanol market in Shandong. Mainstream factories in Shandong have significantly increased their factory prices due to cost pressures, with prices surging to 8566 yuan/ton on March 10th.
In mid March (3.11-3.19), the n-butanol market experienced a downturn. In the early stage, high prices stimulated some companies to restart their equipment, and the market supply was temporarily loose. Coupled with cautious downstream procurement, the price briefly fell to 7866 yuan/ton.
In late March (3.19-3.31), the n-butanol market continued to rise, with incomplete resumption of maintenance equipment and reduced import sources due to international logistics, resulting in a further tight supply; At the same time, the company’s inventory remains low, with a strong willingness to raise prices, pushing prices back to above 8500 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Cost side: Crude oil propylene chain skyrockets, forming rigid support
In March 2026, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East pushed up international crude oil prices, with US crude oil rising by over 39% in a single month, directly driving up the prices of upstream raw materials such as naphtha and propylene. Propylene accounts for a relatively large proportion of the production raw materials for n-butanol, so the sharp rise in raw material propylene led to a direct increase in production costs for enterprises, strengthening market expectations for price increases.
Geopolitics and Logistics: International Supply Chain Disturbance, Decreased Import Sources
The shipping efficiency in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, resulting in delays in the arrival of some imported n-butanol sources at ports. Domestic port inventories have decreased by 10% -15% month on month, and the import replenishment effect has weakened.
Due to the impact of energy costs, the operating rate of overseas facilities is insufficient, the international market supply is tight, and domestic enterprises’ export quotations are synchronously raised. The phenomenon of inverted price differences between domestic and foreign markets has eased, further supporting domestic prices.
Market supply and demand impact
The optimistic sentiment of the market towards the peak season of “Golden Three, Silver Four” has amplified the impact of changes in the supply and demand margin, driving prices to rise beyond expectations.
Future forecast
Macro and supply-demand analysis
Supply side: With the resumption of maintenance equipment, the industry’s operating rate is expected to rebound in April, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. However, if the price of raw material propylene remains high, the willingness of enterprises to operate will still be limited.
On the demand side: The traditional peak season of “Silver IV” will still support rigid demand, but downstream acceptance of high prices has reached a critical point. If prices continue to rise, there may be a wait-and-see attitude towards procurement.
Macro risk: If the situation in the Middle East eases, the pullback in crude oil prices will directly affect the cost support of propylene and n-butanol, and we need to be alert to the risk of price pullback; If the geopolitical conflict persists, the cost side will still dominate the market trend.
Technical analysis

According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society’s spot market, in early March, the 10 day moving average of n-butanol crossed the 20 day moving average, and the short-term (10 day) moving averages were all higher than the long-term (20 day) moving averages. In March, the overall market situation of n-butanol showed an upward trend. At the end of March, the 10 day moving average of n-butanol once again crossed the 20 day moving average, so it is predicted that the spot market price of n-butanol will likely continue to show an upward trend in the short term. However, auxiliary indicators show that the current price of n-butanol is at a high level among the five tiers. Therefore, the predicted price increase of n-butanol in the future is limited, and it mainly oscillates at high levels. Special attention should be paid to fluctuations in crude oil prices, equipment operation, and changes in downstream orders.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ABS market experienced a strong upward trend in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 12766.67 yuan/ton, with a price level increase of 43.02% compared to the beginning of the month. The spot prices of most grades have increased significantly.
Supply: Stable after load increase, supply shifts from tight balance to abundant
The operating rate of the domestic ABS industry showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing in March. By the end of the month, the overall operating rate of the industry remained at around 69%, with an average weekly output of about 135000 tons and a finished product inventory of about 180000 tons. In the short term, production fluctuations are limited, and market supply is transitioning from tight balance to ample supply, with relatively moderate support from the supply side for prices.
Cost: Upstream three materials all rise, raw material support continues to increase
The cost side became the core driving force behind the rise of ABS in March. International oil prices continue to rise due to the volatile situation in the Middle East and the firm stance of OPEC+on production cuts, providing cost support for petrochemical products.
Acrylonitrile: Port arrivals have decreased within the month, domestic spot inventory has been smoothly cleared, and there have even been export windows in some areas. Supplier quotations have remained firm and upward, with significant market growth.
Butadiene: Prices are rising in a stepwise manner. Supported by tight import supply and stable downstream demand, merchants have a strong willingness to raise prices. However, downstream butadiene rubber enterprises are facing cost pressure, and some units are reducing their load, which may constrain the subsequent increase in butadiene prices.
Styrene: The market first rose and then consolidated. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates widely with crude oil, and although downstream growth is weak, the expected negative load reduction of foreign facilities in the second half of the month will provide support for pure benzene. Currently, the cost of styrene is high, downstream production has decreased month on month, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to maintain a high level of operation in the short term.
Requirement: Insufficient terminal follow-up, market trading returns to rationality
The downstream ABS enterprises did not start production as expected in March, and the consumption performance of the main terminal electrical shell industry was flat, with limited improvement in corporate profits. With the rapid rise in prices, the market’s pursuit of price increases has gradually cooled down, and there has been a reduction in replenishment and warehouse building operations. As the end of the month approaches, some merchants are offering discounts to fulfill their tasks, causing a certain drag on the price center of gravity. At present, the inventory level of ABS finished products is moderate, but downstream resistance to high priced goods is gradually emerging, and the overall support of the demand side for the market is weak.
Market outlook: Strong cost and weak demand game, short-term gains may be limited
The current ABS market is still in a game stage of strong cost driven and weak demand reality. The supply side has limited changes, and the market supply is relatively abundant; The prices of upstream three materials remain high, and cost support remains solid. However, spot prices have reached a temporary high, and downstream capacity is average. Trading is gradually returning to the dominance of supply and demand fundamentals.
Technical analysis
Analysts believe that according to the Business Society Spot News, the current ABS 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average, and all recent moving averages are higher than the distant moving averages, indicating that spot prices are likely to continue a positive trend in the short term. However, auxiliary indicators show that ABS prices in all five levels are at high or medium high levels, indicating that the future increase in ABS prices may be limited. It is recommended to closely monitor the international crude oil and Middle East shipping situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level in March 2026, with an average price of 16655 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16425 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 1.38%.
On March 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 99.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.50% from the highest point of 134.01 points (November 29, 2016) during the cycle, and an increase of 33.78% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
In March, lead prices showed a pattern of “low volatility, bottom and top”, with core fluctuations revolving around “macro suppression+supply and demand game+new regulations for delivery of recycled lead futures”.
Macro factors
On a macro level, there is a clear trend of suppression, with the US dollar index rising four times to near the 100 mark, reaching a new high in nearly April. For lead prices, the strong US dollar directly suppresses them, while the demand for commodity preservation driven by inflation concerns provides a small amount of support. Under the long short game, the overall price is under pressure to decline.
supply side
In March, the domestic production rate of primary lead gradually recovered, but due to restrictions on the supply of lead concentrate, the processing fees for lead concentrate remained low, which constrained the release of primary lead production capacity; Recycled lead enterprises have maintained low production levels due to losses, coupled with the implementation of the new national standard for recycled lead on March 1st, which has pushed up production costs. The growth of recycled lead supply is weak, and the overall supply side shows a pattern of “recovery but limited”, without forming obvious supply pressure, but also unable to support price increases.
Starting from March 17th, recycled lead ingots will be included in lead futures delivery as a substitute (PB2703 contract will be implemented), with a discount of 150 yuan/ton on standard products. This policy has a significant impact on lead prices this month and has become the core driving force behind the accelerated decline in the medium term. In the short term, the expansion of delivery products has led to a shift in market pricing logic towards a combination of “native+renewable” pricing. The cheapest delivery product dominates the lower limit of lead prices, directly suppressing the central prices of futures and spot prices, resulting in an accelerated decline in prices after March 17th; In the medium to long term, the inclusion of recycled lead in delivery has solved the problem of mismatched hedging standards for recycled lead enterprises, improved industry transparency, and at the same time, the cost of recycled lead will provide stronger bottom support for lead prices, smoothing price fluctuations and reducing the occurrence of extreme market conditions.
Demand side
The operating rate of lead-acid batteries remains relatively high, mainly supported by the demand for stock replacement. However, the traditional off-season for consumption in the second quarter is approaching, and downstream enterprises only maintain on-demand procurement at low prices, without the willingness to concentrate on stocking up. Insufficient incremental demand has become the main constraint on price increases.
Inventory end
The inventory side is showing a trend of “continuous depletion”, providing key bottom support for lead prices and easing the mid-term decline. In March, the social inventory of domestic lead ingots gradually decreased, with a significant decline in the inventory of primary lead factories. The reluctance of holders to sell increased, providing some support for spot prices.
Prediction of future trends
Looking ahead to April, the arrival of the traditional off-season for consumption will tilt the balance towards the demand side, and there is a risk of a slight downward shift in the price center. However, with the support of rigid costs, the downward space for lead prices is limited, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend.

Precious metal prices fall in March
As of March 30, 2026, the early market price of gold spot was 1005.93 yuan/gram, a decrease of 12.14% compared to the gold spot market price of 1144.88 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (March 1).
On the 30th, the gold price slightly rebounded within the day. In terms of spot trading:
On March 30, 2026, Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted a benchmark price of 1011.43 yuan/gram for Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) at noon; The benchmark price for the earlier session was 999.56 yuan/gram, an increase of 11.87 yuan/gram (1.19%); Compared to the benchmark price of 995.34 yuan/gram at noon on the previous trading day (3.27), it has increased by 16.09 yuan/gram (1.62%).
In terms of futures:
The main contract of Shanghai Gold on March 30, 2026, opened at 993.46 yuan/gram and closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram, up 2.28% from yesterday’s settlement price of 992.24 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the rebound of precious metal gold on March 30, 2026
On March 30, 2026, precious metal gold slightly rebounded and rose, which was the result of the correction of expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the bottoming out of central bank gold purchases, fluctuating geopolitical risk aversion, and a technical oversold rebound. Here are the specific reasons:
1. Pricing of Federal Reserve Rate Reduction Expectations
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting released a super hawkish signal, maintaining high interest rates of 3.5% -3.75%, reducing the expected annual rate cuts from three to one, and delaying the first rate cut until September. US bond yields soared, the US dollar strengthened, and gold prices plummeted. In late March, the US CPI and non farm payroll data fell short of expectations, and the market re priced the path of interest rate cuts. CME data shows that the probability of the first interest rate cut in September has rebounded to 75%, and the expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates has resumed. Funds are flowing back to gold from the US dollar and US Treasury bonds.
The slight rebound of precious metal gold on June 30, 2026 is a repair to the expectation of “delayed but not cancelled interest rate cuts”.
2. Strong Fundamental Support: Global Central Banks Continue to Purchase Gold (Bottom Support)
The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for 16 consecutive months, and its reserve scale continues to expand; Global central banks are expected to purchase a net of 863 tons of gold in 2025, and it is expected to remain at a high level (about 755 tons) in 2026. Poland and other countries will increase their holdings significantly, forming a “national level buying market” and greatly reducing the potential for a deep decline in gold prices.