1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have slightly decreased this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 127750 yuan/ton, down 2.27% from the beginning of the week and up 4.66% year-on-year.
Macro wise: This week, the macro drivers have gradually exhausted. The US July CPI data is basically in line with expectations, and the Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see stance; CME Federal Reserve observation shows that the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to 33.1%. The situation in the Middle East shows some signs of easing, but navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed, and sulfur prices continue to fluctuate at high levels around $1100. In July, the domestic CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and M2 increased by 7.7% year-on-year. The macro atmosphere is cautiously optimistic, but concerns about economic recession still exist.
On the supply side, the focus of the supply side game is on Indonesia’s RKAB quota policy. On Thursday, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) recommended an additional strategic buffer of 30 million tons for nickel ore RKAB in 2026, raising market expectations for loose supply. In terms of mining, the end of the rainy season in the Philippines has led to a rebound in domestic nickel ore port inventories, but Indonesia’s intermediate goods imports have shown a month on month decrease. Domestic refined nickel production in July continued to decline at 30800 tons, and Indonesia’s GNI company shut down two of its three nickel smelters due to financial crisis.
On the demand side: Overall demand is still in a weak trend during the off-season. Under the off-season of traditional stainless steel consumption, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream acceptance of high priced resources is limited. Transactions have only rebounded temporarily, and steel mills have loosened their prices; The stainless steel factory lacks strong motivation to replenish inventory in large quantities before the peak season arrives. In terms of new energy, the production of ternary cathode materials in July increased by 2.48% compared to the previous month, reaching 89220 tons. However, downstream purchasing intentions were weak and rigid demand was the main factor. Although the demand for ternary materials improved, it was not enough to digest the increase in pure nickel.
Influencing factors: The core influencing factor this week is the expected switch of Indonesia’s RKAB quota policy – from “comprehensive tightening” to “moderate relaxation”. APNI has stated that the quota will remain at 260-270 million tons and only add to smelters with raw material shortages. In terms of inventory, the total LME nickel inventory is running at a high level of 264732 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 101387 tons from the previous period continue to accumulate. On the cost side, mineral prices have fallen slightly compared to the previous period, and cost support has weakened, but the high sulfur level still provides some bottom support.
In summary, the RKAB approval result remains a key variable. If the quota is officially implemented, the downside risk will increase, and if it is tightened again, it will be an upside risk. Macro and geopolitical uncertainties exist, and fundamentals are suppressed by both high inventory and weak demand. It is expected that nickel prices will remain weakly volatile in the short term.

Aluminum prices fell on August 14th
In August 2026, the overall price of domestic aluminum ingots rebounded, but recently the price has slightly fallen. As of August 14, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 23883.33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.05%, and an increase of 1.02% compared to the market average price of 23643.33 yuan/ton on August 1.
Reasons for the rebound of aluminum prices in August
The rise in aluminum prices in August was mainly driven by disturbances in overseas supply. The interruption of natural gas supply and significant reduction in production capacity at the Hydro alumina plant in Brazil have raised concerns in the market about tightening alumina supply. Coupled with the long-term low LME aluminum inventory, this has amplified price elasticity; Domestic electrolytic aluminum is constrained by a production capacity red line of 45 million tons, with limited incremental growth. The continuous depletion of social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots has formed a bottom support; At the same time, weak employment data in the United States, cooling expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and a weakening of the US dollar have boosted the valuation of the non-ferrous sector; However, currently in the off-season of traditional consumption, the demand for real estate and household appliances is weak, and only new energy and aluminum exports provide support. The terminal’s fear of high sentiment will also limit the upward space.
Reasons for the recent decline in aluminum prices
Due to the tight overseas supply that had previously driven the rise, the premium quickly dissipated. The natural gas problem at the Hydro alumina plant in Brazil eased, and production capacity resumed. At the same time, the resumption plan for the EGA electrolytic aluminum plant in the United Arab Emirates was implemented, and the expected supply gap in market transactions cooled down; After the superposition of price surges, long positions took profits. The rise in aluminum prices made downstream processing plants fear high prices and maintain on-demand procurement. The weak spot buying market and short-term sentiment turned, jointly driving aluminum prices to fall.
Aluminum price forecast for the future:
Short term aluminum prices still have room for fluctuation and correction, mainly due to the disturbance of overseas alumina supply, the disappearance of premium, long profit taking, and insufficient downstream buying during the off-season of domestic consumption; However, the strong support formed by the red line of domestic production capacity and global low inventory makes it difficult to break out of the sustained unilateral decline, and the market will turn into a high-level oscillation. The focus will be on tracking changes in overseas supply and domestic spot transactions in the future.

In early August, the domestic propylene glycol market fluctuated and fell back. At the beginning of the month, the market still had expectations of rising prices. With some companies lowering their factory quotes, the focus of spot trading gradually shifted downwards, and on-site negotiations were mainly based on actual orders, resulting in a widening gap between high and low prices. As of August 13th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong region was 9266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.80% from the beginning of the month.
Core driving factors
Supply side: The early maintenance equipment has resumed production one after another, the industry’s production has increased month on month, and the market supply of goods has increased; The operation of the dimethyl carbonate co production unit is stable, and the by-product propylene glycol continues to flow out, increasing market supply pressure; A small number of devices have fluctuations, forming a slight buffer in supply, resulting in an overall shortage of imported goods and limited external impact.
On the cost side, the raw material propylene oxide has weak fluctuations, propylene follows the fluctuations of crude oil, and the cost support of propylene glycol has loosened. The cost side does not have strong upward momentum, but there is still some support at the bottom of the raw materials, and the space for a significant deep decline is limited.
Demand side: Located in the traditional off-season of summer, the downstream production of unsaturated polyester resin and alkyd resin is relatively low, and the orders for terminal building materials and composite materials are weak. Downstream purchases are mostly for essential needs, and there is a lack of willingness to stock up; Daily chemical and food grade essential needs are stable, but their proportion is limited, making it difficult to drive the overall market; Export orders remain resilient and divert domestic sources to a certain extent, but it is not enough to reverse the domestic off-season pattern.
Market forecast:
In the short term, it is expected that propylene glycol will continue to fluctuate weakly within the range. The resumption of production on the supply side has brought about an increase in supply and accumulated pressure on inventory; The off-season on the demand side is still ongoing, making it difficult for downstream companies to make significant improvements; The cost side epoxy propane has bottom support, and the price has limited room for deep decline. Focus on tracking the trend of raw material epoxy propane, changes in equipment maintenance, and downstream replenishment rhythm.

1、 Market Overview
In the past week (August 5-11), the spot price of PA66 remained stable at 18133.33 yuan/ton for a long time. On August 11, it experienced a decline, with a daily drop of 1.65%, and the spot price fell to 17833.33 yuan/ton. From the perspective of cyclical prices, the 10-90 day cycle is all in the low range, and the annual price is in the mid low range. The overall market is still under pressure to decline, and the moving averages are bearish. The short-term moving averages continue to cross the medium and long-term moving averages, and the downward trend has not reversed.
2、 Cost analysis
The supply of upstream raw material adiponitrile is loose, and the market quotation continues to be weak. The weekly settlement price of caprolactam has steadily declined, and the overall cost support for nylon raw materials is insufficient. Recently, the overall market for chemical raw materials has been sluggish, with a lack of favorable factors driving the crude oil sector. Raw material factories have a strong willingness to ship, and the downward trend in upstream raw material prices continues to compress the cost bottom line of PA66; At the same time, most of the devices in the industry maintain high load operation, and there is no upward pressure on raw material procurement costs, making it difficult for the cost side to drive the recovery of slicing prices.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
1. Supply side
The operating rate of PA66 production enterprises in China remains high, and the overall supply of goods is sufficient, with industry inventory gradually accumulating. In order to ensure the shipment of orders, manufacturers continue to lower their quotations to stimulate transactions. The market has ample circulation of spot goods, and there is no shortage of goods. The relaxed supply environment suppresses the rebound space of spot prices.
2. Demand side
The downstream textile and nylon fabric industry has entered a traditional off-season, with low operating loads in downstream factories. Most enterprises purchase goods in small quantities according to demand, without large-scale stocking plans. The foreign trade order market is flat, and overseas customers are cautious in purchasing; The recovery of the terminal consumer market is slow, downstream finished product inventory is high, and the upward transmission of raw material procurement demand is weak, resulting in a supply-demand pattern of oversupply.
4、 Short term forecast
The short-term PA66 market lacks favorable drivers, and the current situation of weak upstream raw material prices, abundant spot supply, and weak downstream demand during the off-season is difficult to improve quickly. The price remains at a low level for the year in the medium to long term, and the downward space has gradually narrowed; The market is likely to maintain a low and volatile operation, and it is difficult to see a trend upward in the short term. It is not ruled out that there may be a slight exploration of a new low in the short term, and the market will only have a turning point after the downstream starts to recover in the golden autumn season.

In August 2026, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rebounded and rose, with an average price of 15330 yuan/ton on August 3 and 15765 yuan/ton as of August 11, an increase of 2.84%.
Fundamental analysis
Supply side intertwining long and short positions
In terms of primary lead, smelting enterprises rely on profits from by-products such as silver and sulfuric acid to offset losses in lead ingot processing. The comprehensive profit is still acceptable, and the production in August is expected to remain high and stable, constituting the main pressure on the supply side. However, some refineries in Hunan and other regions have undergone routine maintenance, and the supply of primary lead has been temporarily tightened. In terms of recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste batteries and widespread industry losses, the operating rate continues to decline, and the production in August is expected to decrease month on month. The contraction of recycled lead supply constitutes the core bottom support for lead prices.
Weak repair on the demand side
Currently, it is still in the off-season for lead-acid battery consumption, and there has been no significant increase in terminal orders. Although August has entered the traditional peak season stocking window of “Golden September and Silver October”, it is limited by the backlog of finished product inventory and weak exports, and the downstream replenishment efforts are only seasonal weak repairs.
In terms of inventory, as of August 11th, the previous period’s inventory was 60927 tons; Although LME lead inventory continues to decrease slightly, the absolute amount is still at a historical high of over 420000 tons.
Comprehensive Summary
The loss and production reduction of recycled lead provide bottom support, and the tight mining situation continues, with limited room for further decline in lead prices. However, doubts about the strength of terminal demand recovery, high global explicit inventories, and stable primary lead supply jointly suppress the upward space. It is expected that the short-term lead price will mainly fluctuate within a range and gradually rise at the bottom, and the market may repeatedly grind to the bottom, with insufficient unilateral upward drive. The key variable for the subsequent trend lies in the actual fulfillment of the peak demand for batteries from late August to September.