Crude oil rises, toluene market overall rises in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will first rise and then fall in June 2025, with an overall increase. From June 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price rose from 5470 yuan/ton to 6070 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.97% during the period.
Early October: The toluene market fluctuated and rose in this cycle, and the supply in Shandong region was tight this week. Some enterprises stopped work for maintenance, and the market supply was significantly tight. The downstream oil blending industry has a decent enthusiasm for entering the market, but overall demand tends to be rigid. The East and South China regions have been affected by port conditions this week, resulting in tight supply. Supported by favorable supply side conditions, the overall market price has risen.
Mid month: The toluene market fluctuated and rose, and the supply in Shandong region remained tight this week. Some enterprises pre sold, and the market supply was significantly tight. The ex factory prices of local refining enterprises were generally raised. The downstream oil blending industry has a decent level of enthusiasm for entering the market, with active inquiries. The port inventory in East and South China has significantly decreased this week, and the supply is also tight. Supported by favorable supply side conditions, the overall market price has risen.
Late period: The toluene market first rose and then fell, and the international crude oil trend fluctuated, causing the toluene market to follow suit. As the end of the month approached, geopolitical conflicts eased, and due to the weakening of crude oil, toluene prices declined, resulting in an overall bearish supply-demand performance.
On the cost side, the crude oil market prices surged and plummeted in June. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.73 per barrel. The crude oil market has experienced significant fluctuations this cycle, mainly due to the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. As the situation escalated and cooled down, crude oil prices have correspondingly risen and fallen sharply, with high volatility.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of June 30th, East China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6250-6200 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6100-6200 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30, 2025, the price of xylene sold by Sinopec Sales Company has remained stable, with a current price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of facilities such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical is stable and sales are normal, with a price reduction of 450 yuan/ton compared to May 29. As of June 27th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $841-843/ton FOB Korea and $866-868/ton CFR China, an increase of $5/ton from May 27th.
Market forecast: The crude oil market has shown significant fluctuations recently, with the toluene market being more affected. With the shutdown of Dalian Petrochemical, there has been a slight boost in supply, but downstream demand is difficult to increase, and the overall supply and demand for toluene remains bearish. Under the influence of crude oil fluctuations, it is expected that the recent toluene market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range, and the focus will be on the trend of crude oil in the future.

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