According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have continued to rise recently. On February 3, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 654 points, up 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.05% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 141.33% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all shown an upward trend. As of the 4th, the price of neodymium oxide was 820000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.47% in February; The price of neodymium metal is 982500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.69% since February; The price of praseodymium oxide is 790000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.27%; The price of praseodymium metal is 960000 yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 2.69%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 920000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.55%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 755000 yuan/ton, and remained stable in February.
In February, the domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise, and there was a strong bullish sentiment towards raw materials in the domestic light rare earth market. Macro news flowed out, and the supply and demand pattern of praseodymium neodymium products tightened, exacerbating market bullish expectations. Under the combined effect of insufficient market supply and bullish sentiment, the spot price of praseodymium neodymium significantly increased. In January 2026, rare earth producers raised the trading price of rare earth concentrates for the first quarter to 26834 yuan/ton, marking the sixth consecutive price increase and directly pushing up the cost center of downstream products such as praseodymium neodymium oxide. The outbreak of rigid demand and the vigorous development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances have driven an increase in orders from downstream magnetic material factories. The global supply-demand gap for praseodymium neodymium oxide is expected to widen to 9000 tons by 2026, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen, leading to a continuous rise in the light rare earth market.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is average, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. The supply-demand imbalance of praseodymium neodymium series products is evident, and the praseodymium neodymium market continues to rise; In addition, the long-term trend of increasing demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other end products remains unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream games, the light rare earth market will maintain a high position.
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