This week, the reason why the acrylic acid market can still report stable prices mainly depends on the producers’ willingness to raise prices. As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6116.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
1. Cost side:
The consolidation of the raw material propylene range and the slight weakening of the cost side are the most critical turning signals. The core logic of “cost driven” that has supported prices in the past few months is becoming ineffective. As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6391.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6404.33 yuan/ton).
2. Demand side:
The strong wait-and-see atmosphere at the beginning of the week directly exposed the weakness on the demand side. Downstream demand is not non-existent, but rather a common mentality of “waiting for a decline” or “purchasing on demand”, which leads to the market losing the “fuel” for upward movement and sluggish trading. As the Spring Festival approaches, terminal factories are gradually taking a holiday, which is an irreversible seasonal bearish trend. The shrinking demand is turning from expectation into reality, and this gravity will only become stronger and stronger.
Market situation:
The current ‘stability’ is a fragile weak balance. It is not a healthy stability of both supply and demand, but a brief stalemate formed during a downward trend due to sellers’ unwillingness to lower prices and buyers’ unwillingness to purchase. The buyer and seller are deadlocked at the critical point of “price”, but the pointer of time is sliding towards the weaker demand of the Spring Festival, and the balance is quietly tilting.
Future outlook:
Short term (pre holiday): This “price but no market” stalemate may continue for a few more days, but the exhaustion of patience on either side could disrupt the balance. If a large factory “offers discounts and ships” in order to recoup funds, or if the price of propylene further drops, it may trigger a small and exploratory price decline.
Post holiday: The real direction choice comes after the Spring Festival. At that time, two key points need to be considered: first, whether the pace of downstream resumption of work and the intensity of replenishment can quickly activate demand; The second is the extent of inventory pressure on upstream raw materials and factories. If the resumption of work falls short of expectations and inventory remains high, the pressure after the holiday may be concentrated and released.
Conclusion: The current “steady operation” should be seen more as a stagnant platform or buffer stage in the downward channel of the market, rather than a signal of trend stabilization. Under the dual impact of weakened costs and off-season demand, the risk of a downward adjustment in the market is greater than the probability of an upward breakthrough.
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