As of January 30th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25776 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.43% compared to the zinc price of 24682 yuan/ton on January 26th.
Macroscopic perspective
The market’s expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is constantly increasing, and the US dollar continues to weaken as a result, providing strong support for non-ferrous metal prices. However, the current market sentiment is fluctuating greatly, and the uncertainty of capital flow is also increasing.
Raw material end
The newly added production capacity of global zinc mines will be released in 2026, but some mainstream mines are experiencing production cuts (such as Antamina, Red Dog, etc.), resulting in an overall slowdown in growth rate. Domestically, there is uncertainty in the progress of the production of Huoshaoyun Zinc Mine. If the production is smooth, it will increase the supply of zinc ingots, but the actual output needs to pay attention to the operational efficiency of the mine. The decline in processing fees has slowed down, the loss on zinc ore imports has narrowed, and the supply of domestic and imported minerals is relatively stable. However, the overall supply pressure of domestic minerals has eased due to seasonal production cuts.
Supply and demand side
Traders and smelters are actively shipping and providing quotes, and the overall spot premium is currently maintained at a low level. However, downstream enterprises have started to take holidays one after another, resulting in weak demand for zinc ingots. In addition, the strong trend of market prices has raised concerns among market participants due to high prices, resulting in less purchasing and inquiry behavior. The overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is somewhat quiet.
Traditional demand: The demand in industries such as infrastructure and real estate continues to show a weak trend, with a decrease in the number of terminal orders, which has suppressed the consumption of zinc ingots. At the same time, the export of galvanized sheet is facing numerous challenges from trade barriers, and the overall performance of the demand side is relatively weak.
Emerging demand: The installed capacity of photovoltaics has shown a restorative growth compared to the previous period, and the demand for zinc in fields such as new energy vehicles has shown some resilience. However, the growth rate has slowed down, making it difficult to fully and completely offset the impact of the decline in traditional demand.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, zinc prices may remain volatile at a high level due to improved supply margins and macroeconomic sentiment support, but the pattern of weak supply and demand growth in the medium to long term remains unchanged, and the space above prices is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the production of Huoshaoyun Zinc Mine, the increase in production of overseas refineries, and changes in macro policies.
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