1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 136250 yuan/ton, down 2.78% from the beginning of the week and up 7.26% year-on-year.
In the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 4 times and risen 8 times, with a slight correction from their high levels recently.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, employment and inflation in the United States continue to slow down, but some areas have improved under the boost of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. There are still differences in the Federal Reserve’s future inflation targets for measuring employment, and it tends to be cautious in the short term.
On the supply side: Several manufacturers that reduced production in the fourth quarter of last year showed a significant rebound in production in January, coupled with the continuous arrival of overseas resources and relatively low prices of Indonesian resources. In the case of sufficient overall spot supply, downstream enterprises are not in a hurry to stock up and mainly purchase according to production pace. In January, China’s refined nickel production was 37700 tons, an increase of 20.06% month on month and 25.54% year-on-year.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises are buying at low prices, and the “Two Sessions” emphasize the long-term benefits of defense spending. Insufficient boost in demand for stainless steel terminals during the off-season, and steel mills still have some raw material inventory in the early stage, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude towards rising prices of raw materials; There is a strong demand for downstream ternary exports and pre holiday inventory preparation, but the purchase volume of nickel sulfate is still relatively small. Downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and prices are expected to remain volatile
In summary, the boost in demand for stainless steel terminals during the off-season is insufficient, and steel mills still have some raw material inventory in the early stage, so they are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude towards the price increase of raw materials; There is a pressing need for downstream ternary exports and pre holiday inventory preparation, but the procurement volume of nickel sulfate is still relatively low. Domestic exports are hindered, and social inventory continues to accumulate, resulting in a recent convergence of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Overall, the recent macro sentiment and changes in mining expectations have affected the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. The macro market is currently stable, and there is no clear result of mining disturbances. Prices will still be supported before landing, and nickel prices are expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations and adjustments in stainless steel prices.
| http://www.thiourea.net |