Price trend: first rising and then falling, rebounding at the end of the month
At the beginning of the month, Indonesian mineral prices supported nickel prices, and the center of gravity shifted upward. On June 9th, it rose to a high point of 124133 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.40%. Subsequently, the loosening of Philippine policies (lifting the ban on raw ore exports) intensified expectations of oversupply, coupled with the escalation of the Middle East situation suppressing market sentiment. Nickel prices continued to bottom out, and on June 24th, nickel prices fell below the 120000 yuan mark to 119050 yuan/ton, hitting a four-year low. At the end of the month, with the easing of geopolitical risks and the weakening of the US dollar, nickel prices rebounded strongly, but due to high inventory pressure, the market had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on June 27th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122433.33 yuan/ton, slightly up 0.01% from the beginning of the month, but still down 10.10% year-on-year.
Macro perspective: intertwining long and short positions
The US tariff policy has been intensified: steel and aluminum tariffs have been raised from 25% to 50%, and tariffs have been imposed on steel derived products (such as household appliances), directly suppressing the demand for stainless steel (70% of nickel consumption relies on stainless steel), with obvious negative transmission.
The contradiction between employment and inflation: In May, the United States added 139000 non farm jobs (exceeding expectations), with hourly wages increasing by 0.4% month on month, and inflation pressure continues. Despite Trump’s call for interest rate cuts, economic resilience may delay the Federal Reserve’s easing policy.
Domestic policy support: The weak manufacturing sector in May reflects weak demand for industrial metals, but retail data exceeded expectations, indicating consumer resilience. The policy of “trade in” is being intensified: the third batch of national subsidy funds will be issued in July, and monthly plans will be formulated in different fields, which is expected to boost terminal consumption expectations. The Premier’s statement: China insists on opening up its market, strengthening global economic confidence, and indirectly supporting metal demand expectations.
Supply side: Continued excess pressure
Indonesia: The benchmark price for domestic nickel ore (June 2) is 15221 US dollars per ton (down 1.19% from the previous period), with limited decline and strong willingness to raise prices for high cost mines; However, actual shipments were affected by rainfall and were lower than the expected quota (300 million wet tons have already been issued).
Philippines: Despite the end of the rainy season, the shipment volume is still limited, and the cancellation of export bans from a policy perspective exacerbates concerns about long-term oversupply.
Significant inventory pressure: LME nickel inventory increased by 4914 tons (to 204294 tons) within the month, while domestic Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 800 tons (to 21257 tons) within the month. The increase in inventory is greater than the decrease in inventory, and the pattern of oversupply continues to be under pressure.
Accelerated capacity expansion: Multiple nickel projects have been put into operation in Indonesia, and Macquarie expects oversupply to continue until 2027-2028.
Hidden cost support: Russian company Norinco claims that current prices have caused losses for 25% of global nickel companies, and Indonesia plans to regulate mineral prices to maintain stability.
Demand side: Weak stainless steel and insufficient new energy momentum
Stainless steel market: On June 27th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 12725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the beginning of the month. Some manufacturers in China and India have reduced production but their accumulated inventory has not been depleted, and terminal demand has not shown any improvement.
The growth rate of new energy is slowing down: lithium iron phosphate batteries are squeezing the share of ternary batteries, and the demand for nickel from ternary batteries is weakening.
Market forecast: The upward trend of nickel prices is constrained by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward trend is supported by costs. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.
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