price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has been stable with small fluctuations recently, and some spot prices of certain brands have been adjusted narrowly. As of June 24th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14493.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.80% compared to early June.
cause analysis
On the supply side: As the end of June approaches, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has fallen slightly. In the early months, the average operating level of the industry in the middle of the month was pushed up to 85%. Recently, there has been a technical upgrade task for the Cangzhou plant, and the operating rate of enterprises has been lowered, resulting in an industry operating rate of around 79%. The weekly average production has been narrowly reduced to 64000 tons, with limited production losses. At the same time, there is a lack of arrangements for future market load reduction, and PC inventory has remained high for a long time, resulting in abundant on-site supply. Manufacturers and midstream inventory levels remain high, with no reduction in shipping pressure, and there has been no improvement in the market supply side’s support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A remained stable with a slight increase in late June. Recently, the upstream crude oil market in the far end has fluctuated sharply after rising, and the market has poor transmission effect on the direct raw materials acetone and phenol for PC. Meanwhile, there has been little change in demand for bisphenol A, and the market lacks further upward momentum. Overall, the price increase of bisphenol A in this round of market is likely to be limited, and its support for PC costs is average.
On the demand side: With the gradual warming of the domestic climate, the downstream factories of PC are experiencing a decrease in load, and stocking is mainly due to weak demand, gradually entering the traditional off-season for consumption, further dragging down the PC consumer end. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply-demand contradiction did not improve at the end of June. Currently, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders, and their trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the flow of goods in the market is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of June, the domestic PC market was consolidating and operating. The upstream bisphenol A market has risen, but the increase is relatively small, which has limited support for the cost value of PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has narrowly declined, while the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand is at a low season level, and businesses are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. On the one hand, industry inventory remains high, and on the other hand, PC prices are low, with limited room for decline. Currently, the market is experiencing fluctuating positive news, and there is insufficient vitality in supply and demand. It is expected that the PC market will continue to focus on consolidation in the future.
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