price trend
According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, since mid April, the domestic PC market has experienced a high-level decline, with most brands experiencing an overall decrease in spot prices. As of April 2nd, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.52% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
Supply side: Since April, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have been relatively concentrated in maintenance. However, overall, the load within the range has been reduced by 7%, and the current average operating rate is around 80%, with limited reduction. At present, the average weekly output is within 70000 tons. There is not much room for contraction in the future supply, but overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market has gradually declined since early April. Affected by the sharp decline in international crude oil prices, the prices of phenol and acetone have remained stagnant and fallen. Subsequently, it caused a drag on the price center of bisphenol A in China. At the same time, the current supply of bisphenol A has limited changes and demand has weakened. Merchants are actively shipping and tend to sell at discounted prices. The overall support for PC cost value has weakened.
On the demand side: The profitability of terminal enterprises has not improved, and the load position of downstream PC factories is still relatively low. Although the current PC price has fallen from a high level, it is still within the three-year high range. The buyer is cautious in stocking up and has a poor willingness to build a warehouse. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the liquidity of goods has decreased. In the early stage, the atmosphere of PC market speculation has basically cooled down, and the mentality of merchants has weakened. They offer according to the market, and there has been an increase in profit giving and order taking operations. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
future market forecast
In late April, the domestic PC market continued to decline at a high level. The price of upstream bisphenol A continues to weaken, causing a drag on the cost value of PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has slightly decreased, and the supply side benefits are limited. On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, and buyers have a cautious mentality, taking whatever they need. Trading is mostly small orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PC market may continue to be suppressed by the decline in the upstream market, and there may still be room for downward adjustment.
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