1、 Market Overview
In the past week (August 5-11), the spot price of PA66 remained stable at 18133.33 yuan/ton for a long time. On August 11, it experienced a decline, with a daily drop of 1.65%, and the spot price fell to 17833.33 yuan/ton. From the perspective of cyclical prices, the 10-90 day cycle is all in the low range, and the annual price is in the mid low range. The overall market is still under pressure to decline, and the moving averages are bearish. The short-term moving averages continue to cross the medium and long-term moving averages, and the downward trend has not reversed.
2、 Cost analysis
The supply of upstream raw material adiponitrile is loose, and the market quotation continues to be weak. The weekly settlement price of caprolactam has steadily declined, and the overall cost support for nylon raw materials is insufficient. Recently, the overall market for chemical raw materials has been sluggish, with a lack of favorable factors driving the crude oil sector. Raw material factories have a strong willingness to ship, and the downward trend in upstream raw material prices continues to compress the cost bottom line of PA66; At the same time, most of the devices in the industry maintain high load operation, and there is no upward pressure on raw material procurement costs, making it difficult for the cost side to drive the recovery of slicing prices.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
1. Supply side
The operating rate of PA66 production enterprises in China remains high, and the overall supply of goods is sufficient, with industry inventory gradually accumulating. In order to ensure the shipment of orders, manufacturers continue to lower their quotations to stimulate transactions. The market has ample circulation of spot goods, and there is no shortage of goods. The relaxed supply environment suppresses the rebound space of spot prices.
2. Demand side
The downstream textile and nylon fabric industry has entered a traditional off-season, with low operating loads in downstream factories. Most enterprises purchase goods in small quantities according to demand, without large-scale stocking plans. The foreign trade order market is flat, and overseas customers are cautious in purchasing; The recovery of the terminal consumer market is slow, downstream finished product inventory is high, and the upward transmission of raw material procurement demand is weak, resulting in a supply-demand pattern of oversupply.
4、 Short term forecast
The short-term PA66 market lacks favorable drivers, and the current situation of weak upstream raw material prices, abundant spot supply, and weak downstream demand during the off-season is difficult to improve quickly. The price remains at a low level for the year in the medium to long term, and the downward space has gradually narrowed; The market is likely to maintain a low and volatile operation, and it is difficult to see a trend upward in the short term. It is not ruled out that there may be a slight exploration of a new low in the short term, and the market will only have a turning point after the downstream starts to recover in the golden autumn season.
| http://www.thiourea.net |