Today, driven by the sharp rise in the market, mainstream domestic bottle manufacturers have raised their spot prices one after another, and the market has strong bullish expectations. As of March 3rd, according to the price data from Shengyi Society, the mainstream average spot price of polyester bottle chips in East China is 6667 yuan/ton.
On the cost side: The main reason for the sharp rise in crude oil prices caused by the intensification of geopolitical situation, coupled with the significant strengthening of PTA futures, has significantly raised the center of gravity of aggregation costs.
Supply: Centralized reduction and shutdown of equipment, expected reduction in supply volume; Operating rate 68.42%
• Demand: Downstream soft drink production starts at 70-80%, gradually recovering
• Inventory: Available days 16.55 days, slightly increased month on month but still tight
In the short term, as long as the situation in the Middle East does not substantially cool down, the premium of crude oil and upstream raw materials will be difficult to eliminate, and the price of PET bottle chips will maintain a high volatility driven by costs. Short term forecast shows strong price fluctuations, following the fluctuations of crude oil/raw materials and moving up the range. If the device restarts, inventory accumulates, or there is a slight correction in the later stage.
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