According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China has risen three times this week (2.23-2.26). The market average price at the beginning of the week was 378420 yuan/ton, and as of February 26, the market average price was 416620 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.56%.
With the quiet end of the Spring Festival holiday, the performance of tin prices has been particularly remarkable, achieving a strong trend of three consecutive increases in just a few days after the holiday.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, most mainstream smelting enterprises in China implemented shutdown and maintenance measures according to the established plan. Based on this situation, it is expected that the tin ingot production will decline to a certain extent that month. Despite the market’s expectation of a slow recovery in Myanmar’s mineral imports, the tightening of quota policies in Indonesia has undoubtedly created rigid constraints on tin ore supply.
supply side
There are hidden concerns on the supply side, and the market’s expectation that Indonesia may introduce a policy to ban the export of tin raw materials, coupled with the risk of tin mine supply in the Democratic Republic of Congo, further exacerbates the market’s worries about the tightening of tin supply.
demand side
After the holiday, traders and downstream industries such as solder, electronics, and photovoltaics will gradually resume work and production. In this situation, the market’s rigid demand for procurement is expected to gradually rebound. However, given that tin prices are still at historically high levels, this may continue to have a restraining effect on downstream companies’ willingness to stock up and procurement efforts, and the process of demand recovery may be relatively slow.
In the spot market, the current circulation of spot goods is relatively limited, and prices generally show a rising trend. Among the downstream solder enterprises, most are still in a holiday state, and only some have resumed work. However, they are still in the final stage of equipment debugging and have not yet fully started actual production. Those enterprises that have resumed production are mostly consuming inventory before the Spring Festival, prioritizing the processing of pre holiday orders, and have a very low willingness to meet new procurement needs.
comprehensive analysis
Short term tin prices are expected to maintain high volatility, and the market needs to closely monitor the actual resumption pace of downstream enterprises after the holiday, the strong demand for replenishment, and the specific implementation of Indonesia’s export policies.
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