As of April 28th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% from the zinc price of 23954 yuan/ton on April 21st.
On April 28th, it plummeted 516 yuan/ton in a single day, completely giving up this week’s gains and hitting a new low in nearly two weeks, with the largest single day decline since the rebound in March.
Fundamental and message driven
The sharp decline this time is the result of four negative resonances: firstly, the vacuum effect of pre holiday demand. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream galvanizing, die-casting, and zinc oxide enterprises have all stopped production ahead of schedule to reduce losses, and raw material procurement has basically stagnated, causing spot market trading to hit a freezing point; The second is the concentrated redemption of high-level profit taking positions. Since the rebound started in March, the cumulative increase in zinc prices has exceeded 7.5%, approaching a three-and-a-half-year high. Long positions have benefited greatly, and pre holiday safe haven exits have triggered a stampede; Thirdly, there has been a substantial reversal in the supply and demand pattern. The latest data from ILZSG shows that in February, the global shortage of refined zinc increased from 21900 tons to an excess of 49600 tons, and the expected surplus for the whole year of 2026 has been raised to 175000 tons; Fourthly, macro risk appetite has fallen, with the Federal Reserve’s May interest rate meeting approaching and the US dollar index running strong, putting overall pressure on industrial metals.
comprehensive analysis
Short term zinc prices will continue to show a weak adjustment trend. If downstream demand fails to effectively recover after May Day, the price is expected to drop by 23500 yuan/ton, and the medium-term downward target is expected to reach 23000 yuan/ton; In terms of the upward trend, it is necessary to increase volume and break through the pressure level of 24000 yuan/ton in order to reverse the short-term decline.
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