According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the nickel market will bottom out at a low level throughout 2025. As the end of the year approaches, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has announced that the government plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by about 34% in 2026. This news has caused nickel prices to soar to 137733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.77% for the whole year. The lowest price for the whole year was 115050 yuan/ton on December 16th, and the highest price was 137733.33 yuan/ton at the end of the year.
Market Review
In the first half of the year, nickel prices fluctuated significantly around industrial policies and macro factors in Indonesia and the Philippines, with a price focus of around 125000 yuan. In the first quarter, nickel prices rose to a high point of the year due to the combined effects of the reduction of quotas approved by Indonesia’s RKAB and the Philippines’ proposed ban on nickel ore exports, as well as seasonal tightening of fundamentals. But with the easing of disturbances on the resource side and the introduction of the US equivalent tariff policy in April, nickel prices quickly fell from their high levels.
During the four months from June to October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate narrowly around 120000 yuan. On the one hand, the easing of tariff concerns, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong demand for new energy vehicles provide support for nickel prices. On the other hand, high inventory and oversupply pressures continue to suppress the upward space. Until November, the expected tightening of the Indonesian mining sector within the year fell through, and downstream entered the off-season, with weak demand and further fermentation of surplus contradictions driving down nickel prices.
The “V-shaped” trend in nickel prices in December, coupled with concerns about high nickel inventory and weak demand in the first half of the month, led to a continuous decline in nickel prices. The real turning point began on December 17th, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled and China’s economic data rebounded, providing a systematic upward financial environment for commodities; On the other hand, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) claims that the government plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by about 34% by 2026, providing a dual driving force for an epic rise in nickel prices, from a drop to a strong rise in an instant.
Nickel supply
Loose supply of nickel ore
This year, the actual supply of nickel ore is relatively loose. On the one hand, although the final data of RKAB approval in Indonesia has not been released this year, it is at least 298.5 million wet tons, higher than last year’s annual production of about 271.89 million wet tons. On the other hand, Indonesia has significantly increased its imports of Philippine nickel ore this year, filling the domestic supply-demand gap. As of October 2025, Indonesia’s imports of Philippine ore increased by 36.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 3.59 million tons.
Global nickel production
According to the latest data report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in October 2025, the global refined nickel production was 326400 tons, with a consumption of 297200 tons and an oversupply of 29100 tons. From January to October 2025, the global refined nickel production was 3.2046 million tons, with a consumption of 2.8666 million tons and an oversupply of 338000 tons. In October 2025, the global nickel ore production was 342600 tons, and from January to October 2025, the global nickel ore production was 3.5574 million tons.
China’s nickel production
According to statistics, from January to October, China’s primary nickel production was 835000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, the production of electric nickel was 326000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%; The production of nickel containing pig iron was 229000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%
Nickel import and export volume
According to Chinese customs data, the import volume of refined nickel in China in November 2025 was 12670.512 tons, an increase of 2929 tons or 30.07% compared to the previous month; An increase of 3676 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 40.86%. This month, the net import of refined nickel was 1744.426 tons, a decrease of 259.79% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 160.39% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel in China was 207794.526 tons, an increase of 128815 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 163.10%. The import dependence of China’s nickel resources, especially nickel iron and refined nickel, is extremely high. The main sources of refined nickel have shifted from Russia to Norway and South Africa, while nickel iron supply is almost entirely dependent on Indonesia.
Nickel demand
Proportion of downstream nickel
In terms of global demand for primary nickel, stainless steel is the main demand, while batteries provide the main increment. Stainless steel, batteries, alloys, electroplating, and others account for 65%, 15%, 13%, and 7% respectively. From the perspective of pure nickel, alloys and castings are the main application areas, accounting for nearly 50%. The demand for nickel beans is replaced by nickel intermediate products (MHP/high ice nickel), resulting in only 1% of pure nickel consumption at the battery (nickel sulfate) end.
Nickel apparent consumption
According to customs data statistics, the apparent consumption of nickel has been on the rise since 2022, reaching the level of 2021.
Under the drag of real estate, stainless steel is unlikely to perform beyond expectations
Over the past 25 years, China’s stainless steel production has maintained steady growth. From January to November, the production of 300 series stainless steel increased by 7.4% year-on-year (previously 8.5%). However, as a post cyclical commodity in the real estate market, downstream demand has been relatively weak due to the drag of the real estate market, and the overall inventory of stainless steel is high and difficult to clear. At the same time, the profit of stainless steel production from primary nickel is sluggish, and it is expected that the stainless steel sector will not perform beyond expectations in the 26th year.
The proportion of ternary battery vehicles is relatively small
In 2025, the demand for new energy will be strong, and the production of ternary precursors will return to the high level of 2022. As of November, the production of ternary precursors has increased by 11.41% year-on-year compared to the previous year. However, in the past 25 years, the proportion of ternary batteries installed in new energy vehicles has remained below 20%, and the installation structure has seriously constrained the demand increment of the new energy sector. According to TrendForce, all solid state batteries are currently in the stage of transitioning from prototype cells to engineering applications. It is expected to begin demonstration applications at the thousand vehicle level in the electric vehicle field in 2027-2028 and begin large-scale applications after 2030. The demand growth for new energy in 2026 may be relatively limited.
Electroplating, alloys, and special steel have limited impact due to their small volume
Electroplating, alloys, and special steel are the main components downstream of refined nickel. The demand for nickel in electroplating remains stable, with an annual nickel consumption of around 43000 tons; The nickel consumption of alloys and special steel has steadily increased since 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 14% in the past five years. However, the proportion of this demand in the total demand for nickel is relatively low, and the overall impact is relatively small.
Policy aspect
Indonesia’s policy shift towards quota tightening and cost restructuring drives nickel price center upward
At the end of the year, Indonesia gave two key policy signals: one is a significant reduction in mining quotas: the target for nickel mining quotas (RKAB) in 2026 is set at 250 million tons, a decrease of more than 34% from 379 million tons in 2025; The second adjustment is the pricing method: the plan is to revise the calculation formula for the reference price of nickel ore, treating cobalt and other associated metals as independent commodities and levying franchise fees.
If these two policies are implemented, they will directly push up the cost of nickel mining from two dimensions: the total supply of mineral resources and the taxable cost of mining. It is expected that the cost center of Indonesia’s nickel industry chain will systematically shift upwards in the future and be transmitted to the global market through the trade chain, becoming a key factor supporting nickel prices in the medium to long term.
Summary and Outlook for 2026
In summary, the pattern of nickel surplus is already evident, and the resource side policies of Indonesia and the Philippines are the main variables in nickel fundamentals. Before the final implementation of Indonesian policies, as a “giant” that accounts for over 50% of global nickel supply, Indonesia’s production adjustment is enough to shake the global supply and demand pattern.
If the Indonesian policy is implemented, the cost of mining will systematically rise, coupled with the narrowing space for the downward movement of domestic integrated process costs, and the “bottom range” of nickel prices is expected to solidify. The current price around 130000 yuan/ton is close to the “break even line” of most enterprises. In terms of demand, the demand for new energy batteries (especially high nickel ternary batteries) is expected to rebound in 2026, and the destocking of the stainless steel industry is coming to an end. Downstream replenishment demand may form a “bottom line” for nickel prices.
However, looking back at 2024, Indonesia’s final approved quota was higher than the initial planned target, and there is a possibility that the policy may be more grandiose than practical. If the actual quota does not significantly shrink by 2026, the rebound of nickel prices may be limited.
Overall, if Indonesia’s 2026 quota is reduced as planned and tax adjustments are implemented, the contraction of nickel ore supply will shift from “expectation” to “reality”. Coupled with rising costs, nickel prices are expected to hit the range of 140000-150000 yuan/ton. There is no expected significant improvement in demand. It is expected that the nickel price will move up in 2026. If it is well settled, the price is expected to reach 150000 yuan/ton. If it is not awesome, it may fluctuate around 130000 yuan/ton.
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