I. Trend Analysis
According to the company’s data, in 2025, spot copper prices have a shocking upward trend, at the beginning of the year quote of 73,830 yuan / ton, at the end of the year rose to 99,180 yuan / ton, an increase of 34.34% throughout the year, the highest price for the whole year broke the threshold of 100,000 yuan (101,053.33 yuan / ton on December 29), also the highest price in 15 years, the lowest point was 73,618.33 yuan / ton on April 8, the maximum amplitude of 37.27%.
The main reasons for the increase in copper prices in 2025:
In addition to force majeure such as earthquakes, mudslides and other factors, structural constraints have also become the main influencing factors of the decline in copper ore supply, such as declining resource quality, insufficient capital expenditure, slower approval of new projects and environmental policy restrictions.
On the demand side, due to new energy and AI twin-wheel drive, copper consumption is much more resilient than expected.
3, due to the expected effect of the United States tariffs, the supply of pure copper in overseas non-U.S. regions continues to tighten.
Supply side
Domestic copper production capacity 2011-2025
According to the data, since 2021, the domestic copper production capacity has increased year by year. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2025, China’s refined copper (electrolytic copper) production of 123.6 million tons, an increase of 11.9% year on year; in January-November, the cumulative production of electrolytic copper of 13,323 million tons, an increase of 9.8% year on year.
Copper import and export data
Compared to 2024, copper imports decreased in 2025, and exports increased. According to customs data, copper imports are much larger than copper exports, and China’s refined copper imports in January-November 2025 totaled 310.31 million tons, down 8.27% year-on-year. China’s refined copper exports in January-November 2025 totaled 698.5 million tons, up 58.46% year-on-year.
2025LME Copper Stock
As shown above, the overall LME copper inventory in 2025 will be highly volatile. Inventories and copper prices are inversely proportional in previous years, but this year the inverse relationship is not obvious. The factors that influence copper prices are multifaceted, previously relying on LME inventories, but this year is due to the shortage of copper mines, increased new demand and the “rainbow effect” in the United States.
Demand
Appearance of copper consumption
Since 2021, the apparent consumption of copper has increased year by year, and the growth rate has slowed for the past two years. According to statistics, in 2025, the apparent consumption of 17.42 million tons, the total annual apparent consumption of 2025 is equivalent to 2024.
Appearance of copper consumption
The demand structure for copper is undergoing a new and old dynamic energy switch. Emerging fields represented by new energy, digital economy and artificial intelligence are growing rapidly, and the growth of new industries is driving the increase in copper consumption demand. New energy vehicles, wind power and photovoltaic new installations, and data center copper use has jumped from 6.8% to 19.4% in 2021, becoming an important support for the growth of copper demand.
Power Cable:
During the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan”, the annual growth rate of investment in power grid projects is expected to exceed 5%. Under the rapid development of many scenic bases and the continuous increase in the demand for hydropower outputs, ultra-high voltage construction is likely to maintain high intensity in the coming years. At the same time, the intelligent upgrading of the power grid will continue to increase.
According to the National Energy Administration, the national grid project completed investment of 482.4 billion yuan in January-October 2025, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year. According to the two grids 2025 working meeting, the national grid is expected to invest more than 650 billion yuan for the first time throughout the year, and the southern grid fixed asset investment arrangement of 175 billion yuan, another record high. Analysts estimate that the national grid project investment amount is about 2.8 trillion yuan during the “14th Five-Year Plan”, with an average annual investment amount of about 550 billion yuan.
Completion of national real estate
In January-October, the sales area of new commercial houses was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year-on-year; of which residential sales area was down 7.0%. Square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Of these, the residential completed area of 24.86 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%.
In terms of domestic demand, China’s electricity exports fell year-on-year starting in April 2025, breaking the recovery trend since 2023. Short-term pressure is concentrated. After the US imposed tariffs on China, China’s exports to the US cost rose, and demand contraction suppressed export growth under overseas inflation. Tired, the future appliance industry will present a pattern of “stable domestic sales, export support”.
Automotive Production
In terms of automobiles, in November 2025, China completed 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles, respectively, an increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, respectively, year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 3.4%, respectively. In January-November, China completed 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles, respectively, year-on-year growth of 11.9% and 11.4%. Sales accounted for 40.9% of total new car sales.
Artificial Intelligence
AI data centers are triggering an explosion of copper demand. McKinsey statistics show that the installed capacity of the global deployed data center will reach 82GW in 2025. With the explosive growth of AI technology and computing power demand, the process of AI transformation of data centers and the construction of new AI-dedicated data centers is accelerating. The global data center capacity is expected to reach 102GW in 2026, with AI-loaded global data centers expected to reach 62GW and non-AI workload capacity of 40GW. It is estimated that the data center is expected to use 590,000 tons of copper in 2026 and 1.4 million tons in 2030.
Impact factors for 2026
Global Mining Project 2025
Several projects resumed production in 2026-2027 led to an increase in mine-end supply of 79.2/961,000 tons. The increase in the contribution of new mines in 2026-2027 is less, the main increase comes from the recovery of production at mines such as Grasberg, Kakula, Batu Hijauin addition to the CobrePanama mine is expected to start negotiations in 2026 and resume production in 2027, but the continuing high copper mine interference rate may affect the recovery of mine production.
Copper Supply Continues to Tension in 2026
Since 2025, the global copper mine supply side interference rate has increased sharply, mining accidents have occurred frequently, and repeated production interruptions and suspensions have led to the downward revision of copper mine production expectations throughout the year. The originally expected 520,000 tons of copper mine increase has not been realized as scheduled; Projects with significant reductions include Grasberg in Indonesia, Kamoa-Kakula in Congo, El Salvador in Chile. Teniente, QB mine in Chile; global copper mine is expected to increase by 1.5% to 23.32.4 million tons of metal in 2025. In 2026, the main emission mines are Giant Dragon Phase II, Amman in Indonesia, Antamina in Peru, Miador Phasell in Ecuador, Udokan and Malmyzh in Russia, and QB2 in Chile, with a total increase of 500,000 tons.
In 2026, the supply and demand pattern of the copper market turned tight, and the supply side was constrained by the slowdown in the growth rate of copper ore reserves and the decline in grade, and the gap in copper ore concentrate expanded to 254,000 tons.
Copper Mining Fee Reduced to 0
On December 19, 2025, representatives of the Chinese copper smelter and Antofagasta finalized the 2026 copper ore processing fee benchmark of $0/ton and 0 cents/lb; and the 2025 copper ore processing fee benchmark of $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/lb. In 2025, the smelter has not yet seen a large-scale reduction in production, but the decline in smelting profits in 2026, raw material supply constraints will continue to test the stability of the smelter to maintain a high growth rate.
Growing demand for new energy
New energy field has become the core engine of copper consumption growth, its use of copper strength is not low, overlapping industry expansion, continuously push the increase of copper demand. From the single consumption dimension, new energy vehicles (especially pure electric vehicles) The amount of copper used to reach 2-3 times that of traditional fuel vehicles, the single GW of photovoltaic installed copper consumption exceeds 3,000 tons, the single GW of onshore wind installed copper consumption exceeds 4,000 tons, and the sea wind is up to 10,000 tons level; and from the industry scale, the global new energy vehicles, wind power growth rate will be maintained at more than 10% mid-high level in 2026, the photovoltaic demand is affected by industry competition and policy impact in stages, slightly declining year on year. It is estimated that in 2026, the three major new energy use copper 5.03 million tons, an increase of 8.4% year on year, is the main support for the growth of copper demand.
AI Data Center Boosts Demand for Copper
AI data centers are triggering an explosion of copper demand. McKinsey statistics show that the installed capacity of the global deployed data center will reach 82GW in 2025. With the explosive growth of AI technology and computing power demand, the process of AI transformation of data centers and the construction of new AI-dedicated data centers is accelerating. The global data center capacity is expected to reach 102GW in 2026, with AI-loaded global data centers expected to reach 62GW and non-AI workload capacity of 40GW. It is estimated that the data center is expected to use 590,000 tons of copper in 2026 and 1.4 million tons in 2030.
Growing demand in traditional areas
Traditional consumption, global grid investment in 2023 began to open a rapid growth momentum, reaching $ 356 billion in 2023, 2024 and $ 388 billion in 2024, an increase of 10% and 9% year-on-year. In 2024, China, North America and Europe grid investment is $ 83 billion, $ 114 and $ 8.4 billion, respectively, accounting for 72% of global grid investment.
Global electricity demand growth overlaps the general aging of the European and American grid, and grid investment is necessary. Global electricity demand is growing steadily, pulling power equipment and grid input; inventory grid aging replacement needs, currently the average service life of the European grid is 50 years, and the average service life of the North American grid is 40 years, all of which are close to the design service life, aging asset replacement constitutes a long-term investment driver.
Goldman Sachs forecasts significant growth in Western grid investments, with European grid investments expected to grow by 55% by 2035 and US grid investments expected to grow by 24% by 2030; total global grid investments will reach $12 trillion between 2025 and 2030. International Energy Agency (IEA) and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Annual investment forecasts of $600 billion and $670 billion are also given. Combining BNEF, IEA and other data, global grid investment is expected to grow at a compound rate of 8% in 2025-2050. From a subregional perspective, Oceania, Africa, and Asia will contribute more to the growth rate, with CAGR reaching 8% and above, while the Americas and Europe will also grow at a growth rate of more than 7%, and grid investment in copper and metal demand will be significantly boosted.
Macro-policy stimulation of demand
In 2026, global monetary policy will usher in a clear shift. Based on the Fed’s resumption of interest rate cuts in September 2025, it is likely that the Fed will officially begin a cycle of sustained interest rate cuts. The market generally expects that the Fed’s rate cut pace will be clearer in 2026, with two gradual rate cuts expected throughout the year. More capital flows into the commodity market, driving its prices up.
Summary and Forecast
In 2025, global copper prices will show a shocking upward trend, and the price center will rise significantly.
The supply side is constrained by multiple factors such as the slowdown in the growth rate of copper ore reserves, the decline in ore quality, the scarcity of large-scale new projects and the frequency of mine interference events, and the global copper ore production growth rate is only 2.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the growth rate of 2.6% of native refined copper production, and the copper ore gap is expected to expand to 254,000 tons.
On the demand side, high demand from emerging fields such as new energy, artificial intelligence, superimposing global grid investment and traditional demand to form a synergy, driving global refined copper consumption to grow 2.6% year-on-year to 28.65 million tons, the supply and demand pattern from a slight surplus in 2025 to close balance, the gap is expected to be about 10,000 tons throughout the year.
Overlapping the global liquidity easing brought about by the Fed’s interest rate cuts, the weakening macro dividend of the dollar index, and the market characteristics of global inventory structural imbalances that enhance price elasticity, the price of copper is dynamic, and the annual price center is expected to continue to rise in 2026.
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