The phthalic anhydride market is expected to fluctuate and decline in 2025
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 5966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 9.60% compared to the price of 6600 yuan/ton on January 1. In 2025, the phthalic anhydride market showed a fluctuating downward trend and a low-level rebound at the end of the year. The average price of phthalic anhydride in East China was 6653.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.60% from 2024 and a new low in nearly three years. The triple pressure of falling raw material prices, oversupply, and weak downstream demand has led to a deep adjustment in the phthalic anhydride industry.
Cost reduction of phthalic anhydride
On December 31st, Sinopec quoted 5800 yuan/ton for ortho benzene, a significant drop of 13.43% compared to the price of 6700 yuan/ton on January 1st. The average price of ortho benzene for the whole year of 2025 will decrease by about 12% compared to 2024, with a slight rebound in ortho benzene prices at the end of the year and a decrease in the cost of phthalic anhydride. The cost support for phthalic anhydride has weakened, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride will increase in 2025.
Phthalic anhydride production capacity expansion, oversupply
The total production capacity of phthalic anhydride in China is about 2.4 million tons (including 1.63 million tons from the neighboring method and 770000 tons from the naphthalene method), with an additional production capacity of about 50000 tons by 2025. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate within the range of 50% -75% in 2025, while the operating rate of neighboring methods will remain at 60% -75%. The operating rate of naphthalene method will only be 50% -60% due to cost pressure. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride is relatively high, and there is an overall oversupply of phthalic anhydride.
Demand side: DOP prices will fluctuate and fall in 2025
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of DOP was 7325.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 10.95% from 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. In 2025, DOP prices will first stabilize and then decline, with a slight rebound and increase at the end of the year. The price center of gravity for the whole year will significantly decrease compared to 2024. Downstream demand is weak, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices is increasing. More than 60% of the demand for phthalic anhydride relies on the plasticizer industry such as DOP. By 2025, the operating rate of DOP enterprises will only be 50% -65%. The market for plasticizer DOP is declining, and caution should be exercised in the procurement of phthalic anhydride, with a focus on essential needs and low inventory levels. There is significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.
Future forecast
The data analyst for phthalic anhydride products at Shengyi Society believes that by 2025, the cost of excess phthalic anhydride supply will decrease, and the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and fall. Overall, in terms of cost, there will be no new domestic production capacity for phthalic anhydride in 2026, and some enterprises will switch to PX production. In addition, with the expectation of maintenance in the Asian market in the second quarter, the price of phthalic anhydride may fluctuate and rise in 2026, which will increase the cost support for phthalic anhydride; In terms of supply, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride will be relatively high in 2025, and may decrease in 2026, with no new production capacity for phthalic anhydride. The expected supply of phthalic anhydride in 2026 is expected to decrease; In terms of demand, with the relaxation of real estate policies and the expected rebound in demand for plasticizers, support for phthalic anhydride demand still exists. In the future, with cost support and weak supply and strong demand, the price of phthalic anhydride is expected to fluctuate and rise in 2026, or stabilize weakly after reaching a high level in the second quarter.
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