1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 142816.67 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from the beginning of the week and up 12.56% year-on-year.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 7 times. Recently, nickel prices have risen rapidly and then fallen back.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically speaking, at the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched a crackdown on Venezuela and seized resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland, intensifying risk aversion. The US dollar seized the opportunity to rebound, oil prices fell, stock markets fluctuated, precious metals such as gold and silver retreated, and nickel prices fell under pressure.
News: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) claims that the government plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by about 34% by 2026. The world’s leading nickel producing country plans to make significant adjustments to its nickel mining quota for the new year, coupled with major producers suspending some mining operations due to unforeseen circumstances, which has raised concerns in the market about future supply tightening. Analysis indicates that if relevant policies are implemented, there may be a substantial gap in global nickel ore supply, which will have a direct impact on the country’s energy system, which accounts for the majority of the global supply share.
On the supply side, it is expected that refined nickel production will decrease month on month, and the short-term surplus pattern will narrow under the reduction in production. However, the overall spot supply in the market is still relatively sufficient. In November, China’s refined nickel production was 25800 tons, a decrease of 28.1% compared to the previous month.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises are buying at low prices, and the “Two Sessions” emphasize the long-term benefits of defense spending. The demand for stainless steel is generally low, and the depletion of social inventory is slow. There may be an increase in supply pressure due to the improvement of steel mill profits. Spot transactions are still cautious, and nickel iron prices have slightly increased recently. In terms of nickel sulfate, downstream ternary production decreased slightly after the end of the peak season reserve period, and there were constraints on the production of new capacity in the medium term. Recently, prices have fallen.
In summary, recent market trading has mainly focused on the pace of RKAB quotas in the Indonesian mining sector, and the actual implementation situation in the future remains to be observed. With high valuations and loose expectations, sentiment has sharply declined, and it is expected that nickel prices will experience a wide range of fluctuations and adjustments in the short term.
| http://www.thiourea.net |