The current acrylic acid market is facing a dilemma of ups and downs. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 5866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of this month.
Cost side:
The price of the main raw material propylene remained relatively firm against the backdrop of winter demand and fluctuations in international oil prices. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of propylene was 5871.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.68% compared to the beginning of this month. This also determines the bottom line of cost for acrylic acid. The profit margin of manufacturers has been compressed, and their willingness to proactively lower prices is not strong.
Supply side:
Although 2025-2026 is the period for the introduction of new acrylic acid production capacity in China, since the beginning of the year, some major factories have carried out unplanned or extended shutdowns and maintenance, offsetting some of the supply increase brought by the new production capacity. The overall operating rate of the industry remains in the range of 75% -80%, and inventory levels are in the middle range, without forming significant pressure.
Demand side:
January and February are the traditional off-season for downstream production of coatings, adhesives, etc., with rigid procurement being the main focus. The slow recovery of the terminal consumer market has led downstream enterprises to adopt a strategy of “purchasing on demand and maintaining low inventory” for raw materials, and large-scale hoarding behavior is rare. This has suppressed the upward momentum of prices, but also means that the market has not accumulated huge speculative inventory risks. The overseas market demand maintains a certain resilience, providing a diversion channel for domestic supply and avoiding the comprehensive impact of overcapacity.
How long can the ‘stable’ state last?
The current weak balance is fragile and is expected to be broken by the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. Specifically, let’s take a look at the following key variables:
1. The intensity and pace of demand recovery
After March, downstream industries will enter the traditional peak season stocking period. If the effects of real estate policies become apparent and the consumer goods market rebounds, driving demand for butyl acrylate (coatings), superabsorbent polymers (SAP, used for hygiene products) and other products to rebound beyond expectations, the market will quickly clear inventory and prices are expected to break through. On the contrary, if the demand during peak season is “not in good condition”, the market will lose support due to disappointment.
2. Supply side variables
After the end of the first quarter, the pre maintenance equipment will gradually resume production, and the release of new production capacity will be more fully realized. The supply pressure will significantly increase in the second quarter. If the long-term price stalemate leads to a continuous deterioration of industry profits, some high cost devices may be forced to reduce load or shut down, thereby regulating supply again.
3. Macro and Cost Environment
The trend of international energy prices will directly reshape the cost line. If there is a trend of rising or falling crude oil prices, it will disrupt the current cost balance. The actual implementation effect of domestic policies to stabilize growth and promote consumption will determine the fundamental direction of terminal demand.
Conclusion: The current “stable” state of the acrylic acid market is a dynamic and fragile balance, and is expected to be difficult to sustain beyond the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter will be a critical period for direction selection, and its trend is highly dependent on the actual demand performance of the “traditional peak season” and the game of supply increment.
For market participants, it is not advisable to have excessive expectations for unilateral market trends at present. Flexible operations and strict inventory control are still the best strategies, and preparations should be made for possible trend trends in the second quarter.
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