According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China showed a strong upward trend this week (1.1-11.13), with an average market price of 326340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 381240 yuan/ton as of January 13, an increase of 16.82%.
The domestic tin price has once again risen strongly, with the main contract price of Shanghai tin significantly increasing, and the domestic spot tin market price has also risen significantly. Although there was a slight technical correction during this period, the overall focus shifted upwards, and the recent trend is the result of the combined effects of macro expectations, industry fundamentals, and short-term supply disturbances.
Macroscopic perspective
Although the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has fallen slightly, it is still in the cycle of interest rate cuts, and the expectation of global liquidity easing provides liquidity support for the metal market. As the world’s largest tin exporting country, Indonesia’s mining quota approval progress and export policy dynamics have always been like the “Damocles Sword” hanging over the market, keeping the market vigilant at all times. At the same time, domestic industrial policies related to new quality productivity fields such as artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing are accelerating their implementation, adding certainty to the long-term demand for tin applications.
supply side
Continued mining disturbance: Although there is a peace agreement in the armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, local areas remain unstable, and there is uncertainty in tin production and transportation; The progress of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar has been affected by the approval process and is not as expected, resulting in significant fluctuations in tin ore imports.
Indonesia’s exports are restricted: In the application for export quotas, Indonesia’s short-term exports have sharply decreased, further exacerbating the global shortage of tin ore supply.
Low inventory: Global tin inventory continues to decline, with both exchange receipts and social inventory at historical lows. Domestic inventory has decreased by 1100 tons compared to the beginning of the month, reaching a total of 6245 tons.
Demand side
The demand in the semiconductor market is strong: global semiconductor sales continue to rise, with a year-on-year growth of 21.2% from January to October 2025. Due to the strong demand for tin in the semiconductor industry, especially in high-end chip manufacturing and packaging.
Emerging fields drive demand growth: With the rapid development of emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and photovoltaics, tin, as a key solder material, continues to increase in demand, and the long-term demand trend presents a good development prospect.
The spot market has been affected by the recent surge in tin prices, and downstream purchasing sentiment has been sluggish. The pressure of raw material costs is gradually transmitted downwards along the industrial chain, and downstream enterprises mostly adopt on-demand procurement, with weak willingness to replenish inventory. There are not many resources circulating in the spot market, although the premium has decreased.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the active performance of the foreign market has had a driving effect on domestic prices. Currently, the overseas market has experienced a decline after rising, turning into a range oscillation trend, and it is expected that Shanghai Wuxi will also enter a synchronized oscillation trend. Under the support of strong fundamentals in the short term, it is expected to maintain a strong pattern, with the price center at a high level, which may potentially impact the 400000 mark. But we should also be vigilant about the insufficient support on the demand side of the spot market and the risk of a pullback.
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