According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on October 17th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9680 yuan/ton, and on October 12th (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9700 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%.
This week, some brands in the domestic silicon metal market have been declining
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the domestic silicon metal market as a whole showed a narrow downward trend, and the market prices of some grades of silicon metal in some regions were narrowly lowered, with an overall decrease of around 50-100 yuan/ton. As of October 17th, the market price of metal silicon # 441 in Huangpu Port area is reference to 9600-9800 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton during the week. The market price of metal silicon # 441 in Tianjin Port area is reference to 9400-9700 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton during the week. The market price of metal silicon # 553 in East China area is reference to around 9300-9400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton during the week. The market price of oxygen 553 # in Xinjiang area is reference to around 8600-8900 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton during the week.
Analysis of Market Factors
On the supply side: Currently, the supply and demand game in the silicon metal market is more evident, and the supply and demand game stimulates narrow fluctuations in market prices. In terms of supply, currently, the operating rate of the silicon industry in Xinjiang continues to increase, and the overall operating rate in Xinjiang is expected to climb to a high point this year. The operating rates in the northwest and Yunnan regions remain stable, while silicon companies in Sichuan have started to reduce production slightly. The operating rate in Sichuan has decreased narrowly, and the overall market supply has continued to increase.
On the demand side: Currently, the demand for metallic silicon is showing some weakness, with an increase in downstream organic silicon plant maintenance and a decline in overall production. The demand for industrial silicon raw materials will be loosened, and although the overall production of polycrystalline silicon will continue to rise narrowly, the purchasing mentality for raw materials is cautious. The downstream aluminum alloy industry has stable production and demand. But with a slight increase in overall inventory in the market, the overall support provided by demand is limited.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the supply and demand transmission of metal silicon is relatively slow, and the regional differentiation characteristics of the metal silicon market are more obvious. The southwest region is gradually reducing production, while the northwest region continues to increase production. The overall supply pressure and demand drag game in the market continue. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be paid more attention to.

price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in China experienced a stagflation and correction in October. The spot prices of some brands have fallen. As of October 16th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14483.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.12% compared to early October.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In the first half of October, domestic PC aggregation enterprises had a large and stable load with small fluctuations. As of the time of writing, the industry’s operating rate is about 81%, with an average weekly output of around 68000 tons, with limited changes compared to the beginning of the month. However, many companies in the future will have centralized release of maintenance arrangements. In terms of inventory, there is a high-level stalemate, and the pattern of abundant PC supply remains unchanged. The positive news of early maintenance has basically been exhausted, and the market is waiting for the implementation of maintenance arrangements for many aggregation plants. Overall, the weak reality and strong expectations on the PC supply side provide moderate support for PC.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the bisphenol A market significantly declined in the first half of October. Upstream phenol and acetone both suffered heavy setbacks, which has a significant impact on the bisphenol A market. In addition, the continuous weakness of bisphenol A consumption has led to a rapid decline in spot prices due to multiple factors. The current market atmosphere remains bleak, with many businesses offering discounts and taking orders, making it difficult for the market to have a chance to stop falling. It is expected that bisphenol A will continue to seek a balance point downwards in the future, while its support effect on the cost of PC will weaken.
On the demand side: October is still in the traditional peak season for PC, but the downstream factory load of the “Golden Ten” this year is not ideal, and the inventory remains at a weak level of rigid demand. Pre holiday warehouse building is not obvious, and post holiday inventory digestion is slow. Although there were maintenance signals that stimulated the early rise of spot prices, as the positive news gradually dissipated, market trading activity declined. Merchants tend to focus on selling goods to recoup funds, leading to a concentration of profit taking and price stagnation and decline. In addition, the industry’s market momentum has been weak for a long time, social inventory is high, and on-site sources of goods are abundant. Although there are collective price increases from aggregation factories, terminal enterprises are resistant to high priced sources of goods. After the demand for filling vacancies in the first half of the month was met, the speed of market supply circulation slowed down again. Overall, the demand side provides average support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In October, the domestic PC market in China experienced stagflation and fell back. The upstream bisphenol A market is still in a downward trend, and the cost value of PC support has collapsed. Domestic PC aggregation plants have large and stable loads with small fluctuations, and maintenance in the future is relatively concentrated. The spot price of PC has risen to a high level in the early stage, and the current market trading situation is not good. It is expected that the PC market will be hindered from rising in the short term and enter a consolidation market.

Recently (10.1-10.14), the domestic EVA market has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from 11403 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, downstream demand for EVA weakened after the holiday; On the other hand, the increase in domestic EVA plant production has led to increased supply pressure. Although the price of raw material vinyl acetate has risen, the overall EVA market has weakened due to the comprehensive impact.
Recently (10.1-10.14), EVA production has risen to around 9.3%, leading to increased supply pressure in the EVA market. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene decreased while the price of vinyl acetate increased, and the cost continued to be supported by EVA. As of October 14th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 6300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.35% from 6950 yuan/ton at the end of September; As of October 14th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.41% from 5550 at the end of September.
After the holiday, the demand for EVA was weak, and spot purchases in the photovoltaic sector slowed down. The peak season for downstream orders for foam production was not strong, and some manufacturers lowered their ex factory prices. The EVA market situation was weak and slightly declined.
Future forecast: Overall, EVA still has cost support, but there will be less maintenance of EVA equipment in China after the holiday, with sufficient supply. Downstream demand in the photovoltaic and foam industries will weaken, and it is expected that the EVA spot market will continue to decline slightly in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and slightly declining recently (10.1-10.14). As of October 14th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 14391 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87% from 14666 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen, which has weakened the support for the natural rubber market; On the other hand, during the downstream tire festival period, the overall operating capacity was low, which had a negative impact on natural rubber. Despite the continued slight destocking of natural rubber inventory at the port, the natural rubber market has experienced a slight decline due to cost and demand factors. As of October 14th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14200-14550 yuan/ton.
As of October 14th, the price of Thai glue was 54.10 baht/kg, a decrease of 1.28% from 54.80 baht/kg on September 30th. Although typhoons continue to affect major Southeast Asian production areas such as Hainan and Yunnan, as well as Thailand and Vietnam in recent times, some rubber cutting operations have been hindered. However, the market expects a concentrated release of supply after the weather improves in the fourth quarter, and overall raw material prices continue to decline from high levels.
Recently (10.1-10.14), natural rubber inventory has continued to decrease slightly, which has a greater impact on natural rubber. As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 456000 tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons or 0.11% compared to the previous period.
Recently (10.1-10.14), due to the National Day holiday, the average production of downstream tires has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of October 9th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 4.20%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased to around 4.20%.
Market forecast: The current high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen back, and downstream production is low. However, the overall inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to decline slightly, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience weak fluctuations before the holiday.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market has fluctuated downward this cycle. From October 1st to October 13th, 2025, the price of butadiene was reduced from 8886.67 yuan/ton to 8380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.7%. The overall performance of the domestic butadiene market in this cycle is weak, with a wide range of ex factory prices for major refineries in China. The overall performance of downstream demand is poor, and the trend of the synthetic rubber market is weak. The enthusiasm for entering the market is low, and the purchasing intention is weak. The actual transaction performance in the market is poor, and there is a lack of demand support, resulting in a weak overall performance of the butadiene market. As of October 13th, the delivery price to the Shandong market is between 8500-8600 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 10th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.90 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract is $62.73 per barrel. During this cycle, the crude oil price market first rose and then fell. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. Russia and Ukraine have tense geopolitical factors, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have stimulated the crude oil market to rise; On the other hand, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The easing of the Palestinian Israeli situation, coupled with weakened US demand, has dragged down global economic and demand expectations due to US tariff issues, leading to a rapid decline in international oil prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 8800 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China is weak and declining. Currently, downstream terminals are inquiring on demand, and the ex factory price of Shunding rubber has been reduced by 300 yuan/ton after the holiday. Market transactions are light, and merchant offers are weak and declining. As of October 13th, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are around 11300 to 11500 yuan/ton, while some private brands are priced around 11000 to 11350 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: There has been no significant increase in downstream demand in the near future, and overall market expectations remain weak. With the intention of purchasing for essential needs, the spot market is generally weak, and there is a lack of positive factors to boost the market. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected that the butadiene market will be weak and volatile in the short term, with a focus on downstream procurement demand.