According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 7th to April 12th, 2024, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China first rose and then fell. Last week, it was at 8533.33 yuan/ton, and this week it was at 8633.33 yuan/ton, up 1.17%.

In terms of crude oil: Although US crude oil inventories have increased and the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, concerns about the Middle East situation have not dissipated, and international oil prices have rebounded after falling. On April 11th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $85.02 per barrel, a decrease of $1.19 or 1.7%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $89.74 per barrel, a decrease of $0.74 or 0.8%.

On April 7, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 8800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8680 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8493 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8680 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On April 8th, the price of pure benzene was 8723 yuan/ton, and on Friday (April 12th), the price of pure benzene was 8712 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.02% from last week and 16.54% from the same period last year..

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, this week’s geopolitical warming has driven up crude oil prices. After the holiday, the pure benzene market followed suit, while the hydrogenated benzene market briefly followed suit. In the later part of the week, crude oil prices declined, and with news of maintenance of downstream devices within the week, the market is expected to have weak demand in the future. The hydrogenated benzene market has given up its gains, and the ex factory price has retreated to pre holiday levels. Currently, most of them remain at 8600 yuan/ton.

This week, the hydrogenated benzene market first rose and then fell. In terms of supply, the main domestic equipment started operating relatively steadily this week, and the overall supply of hydrogenated benzene was relatively stable. In terms of demand, some downstream styrene and phenol units will shut down during the week, and some units have revealed maintenance plans. The market’s future demand is expected to decline, leading to a decline in the hydrogenated benzene market over the weekend. Overall, there is still support for the crude oil market at the macro level, and the subsequent trend is relatively high. As the May Day holiday approaches, there is a demand for stocking in the downstream market. It is expected that the downward space of the hydrogenated benzene market will be limited in the short term, with narrow adjustments being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the yellow phosphorus market has slightly increased this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 22660 yuan/ton last Thursday, and 23060 yuan/ton this Thursday, with a price increase of 1.77%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of yellow phosphorus has increased this week. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus field is good, and downstream procurement is more active. The new orders from manufacturers are doing well, and most downstream are preparing for the May Day holiday. Overall, the yellow phosphorus market is relatively active, with some factories experiencing tight spot prices. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 23000-23200 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, the phosphate ore market has temporarily stabilized and operated steadily this week. As of April 11th, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1062 yuan/ton, which is the same as April 4th. The phosphorus ore data analyst from Business Society believes that the overall performance of the downstream demand side of phosphorus ore is average, with downstream users mainly focusing on rigid procurement. The market’s new orders are relatively cautious, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

In terms of coke, the coke market in Shandong ports has been operating weakly this week, with a quasi first level outbound price of around 1770-1800 yuan/ton and a first level outbound price of 1870-1900 yuan/ton. The spot market in ports has been operating weakly, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. The wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and trading is light.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid is temporarily stable, organizing and operating. The average price of domestic thermal phosphoric acid market this week is 6540 yuan/ton. The phosphoric acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that there is currently a shortage of new orders in the market, and the trading atmosphere is cold. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, and the phosphoric acid market is operating steadily and steadily.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the current downstream stocking situation is relatively positive, with tight spot prices on the market and good confidence in the yellow phosphorus market. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will continue to operate strongly in the short term, and actual transactions will be discussed.

This week, the domestic titanium tetrachloride market remained stable and upward. According to the testing system of Shengyishe, as of April 10th, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride in Shengyishe was 10825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the beginning of this month (10675.00 yuan/ton).

The high and firm prices of terminal raw material titanium ore in the market have led to significant production cost pressure for high titanium slag enterprises, with some enterprises increasing by 500/ton. Downstream markets purchase on demand, with relatively low order circulation. Overall, the titanium tetrachloride market is still operating steadily.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the cost side of titanium tetrachloride is under high pressure, and downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus. It is predicted that the titanium chloride market will not change much next Thursday and will continue to maintain stable operation.

Zinc prices continued to rise in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 9th, the zinc price was 21762 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.46% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 20832 yuan/ton on April 1st. Long positions in commodities supported the rise in prices in the non-ferrous sector, with zinc prices fluctuating and rising in April.

The colored index rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the non-ferrous index was 1160 points on April 8th, an increase of 27 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.58% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 91.10% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present). The non-ferrous sector index has been rising continuously since March 27th, and the non-ferrous sector market has been on the rise, with macroeconomic benefits. The support for the rise in zinc prices in April has increased.

Zinc market supply

There is still no significant increase in mining in the international market. At present, the processing fees for zinc mines in China are low, and the profits of zinc smelters are inverted. There are significant differences in negotiations between smelters and mines on annual processing benchmarks in the international market. Some smelters in the international market have reduced production, while others have undergone maintenance; The domestic production of zinc concentrate has decreased year-on-year, leading to a decrease in the expected supply of zinc in the domestic market.

Zinc market demand

It is expected that the global economic growth rate will decline in 2024 compared to 2023, and the total demand for zinc in the market will remain stable or slightly increase. The domestic real estate market has not yet bottomed out, but infrastructure, household appliances, and automobiles have maintained a certain growth rate. The increment of affordable housing construction, “dual use” public infrastructure construction, and the “three major projects” of urban village renovation have offset the consumption reduction of some real estate, and the support for the increase in demand in the domestic zinc market is limited. Overall, global demand for zinc remains weak.

Macroeconomics

The non farm payroll data in March in the United States grew beyond expectations, with a surge of over 300000 people, the largest increase in nearly a year. However, the unemployment rate has declined, raising doubts in the market about the possibility of interest rate cuts. Coupled with increased geopolitical risks, risk aversion has intensified, and the bullish sentiment in commodities has driven the recent strong performance of the non-ferrous sector; The People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy has once again stimulated stable economic growth and boosted market sentiment. In March, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.8%, a significant increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. The domestic manufacturing industry has recovered beyond expectations. The macroeconomic situation is favorable, with the non-ferrous metal sector index soaring after the Qingming Festival, and the zinc market being favorable.

Future Market Forecast

Data analysts from Business Society believe that the continuous rise of the non-ferrous sector index in April is beneficial for zinc prices. In terms of supply and demand, the global zinc market is weak in both supply and demand, and the positive support for the zinc market is limited; In terms of macroeconomics, the international and domestic economic recovery exceeded expectations, with many macroeconomic benefits stimulating the rise of the zinc market. In the medium to long term, there is a large potential for new zinc minerals to be added in 2024, and the supply of zinc is sufficient. In terms of demand, although the domestic economic recovery exceeded expectations, the global economic growth rate is still expected to decline compared to 23 years ago, and demand growth is still difficult to sustain. In 2024, the oversupply will continue, and it is expected that the zinc market will consolidate at a low level in the future.

The price of new pentanediol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 8th, the price of new pentanediol was 9966.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92% compared to the price of 10266.67 yuan/ton on April 1st.

This week, the price of neopentyl glycol has fallen, some factories have offered discounts for sales, and the operating load of neopentyl glycol manufacturers has decreased. Downstream demand for neopentyl glycol has weakened, resulting in poor transactions in the neopentyl glycol market and significant downward pressure on neopentyl glycol.

The price of raw material isobutyraldehyde fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 8th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7287.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% compared to April 1st isobutyraldehyde price of 7566.67 yuan/ton. The price of propylene, the raw material of isobutyraldehyde, has fluctuated and fallen, downstream production of new pentanediol has decreased, and the cost of isobutyraldehyde has decreased. The demand for isobutyraldehyde is weak, and the pressure on the price of isobutyraldehyde to fall has increased. This week, the price of isobutyraldehyde has fluctuated and fallen.

Market Overview and Forecast

An analyst at Shengyishe believes that in terms of raw materials, the price of isobutyraldehyde has fluctuated and fallen, but there is a trend for isobutyraldehyde to stabilize in the future. The downward pressure on raw materials is limited; In terms of demand, there has been an increase in low-priced quotations for neopentyl glycol, and although the manufacturer’s quotation is temporarily stable, the actual transaction is poor. In addition, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is high, resulting in a decrease in the production of neopentyl glycol manufacturers and a significant downward pressure on neopentyl glycol. In the future, in terms of cost, the support for the rise of new pentanediol is limited, while demand remains weak and downward pressure is significant. However, new pentanediol manufacturers are experiencing a decrease in production, and the supply of new pentanediol is decreasing. Overall, the expected price of new pentanediol in the future is expected to fluctuate slightly and fall.