According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market in May showed a trend of first rising and then falling. As of May 27th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4938 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.73% from the beginning of the month.
Looking at the future market, PTA units will undergo centralized maintenance in May, and gradually restart in the latter half of the year. As of the end of the month, the PTA industry’s operating rate is around 78%. After the repair of the disk processing fee, the implementation of device maintenance in June and July may not meet expectations. New production capacity such as Honggang Petrochemical Phase III and Hailun Petrochemical Phase III will be put into operation from June to August, with a focus on loose supply in the long term.
The current settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the US crude oil market is $60.89 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract is $63.57 per barrel. Trump has postponed imposing tariffs on the European Union, but OPEC and its allies are considering another significant increase in production, so the oil market is weighing the short-term prospects of easing trade tensions and increasing OPEC+supply.
Recently, with the restoration of PX benefits, some domestic and foreign facilities have increased their capacity, and early-stage maintenance facilities have gradually restarted. For example, the 1.6 million ton facilities of Zhongjin Petrochemical and the 4 million ton facilities of Zhejiang Petrochemical have been restarted in advance, resulting in a gradual increase in PX supply. The gradual reduction in downstream polyester production, weakened supply and demand margins, and limited support for crude oil prices have put significant upward pressure on PX. However, as the downstream PTA load gradually increases, the short-term supply and demand of PX are good, and the current spot market supply is tight, PX is still relatively resistant to decline.
Under the sharp rise in raw material prices, downstream polyester products have expanded their losses, and the main focus is on digesting raw material inventory after low-level stocking at the end. In addition, with the expectation of China’s export rush to the United States gradually coming to an end in late June and the arrival of the off-season for domestic sales, terminal textile enterprises are cautious and cautious, with rigid demand procurement as the main focus, resulting in light trading in the polyester market. The high inventory pressure brought about by nearly 90% of high production will increase, and some polyester factories have begun to implement production cuts. It is expected that there will be a greater certainty of production cuts in the third quarter.
Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that crude oil prices are dominated by geopolitical risks and policy games, and unexpected events may drive up oil price volatility. The increase in supply brought about by downstream polyester production reduction and the introduction of new PTA production capacity will suppress the upward space of PTA prices, and it is expected that the PTA market will be under pressure in June.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and declining recently (5.20-5.27). As of May 27th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06% from 14708 yuan/ton on the 20th. Downstream tire production is stable, providing essential support for natural rubber; The natural rubber raw material market is consolidating at a high level, and the cost of natural rubber still has support; The domestic natural rubber inventory is still at a high level, which has a negative impact on the natural rubber market. As of April 27th, the mainstream price for 23 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14250-14600 yuan/ton.
As of May 27th, the price of Thai glue was 62.75 baht/kg, unchanged from the price on May 20th. In the early stage, Thailand announced a one month delay in rubber cutting. Currently, overseas rubber cutting work is not smooth, and raw material prices remain high. Natural rubber still has cost support in the short term; But in the later stage, with overseas cutting, the expected supply of rubber raw materials gradually increased, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is expected to decrease in the later stage.
Recently (5.20-5.27), natural rubber inventories have slightly increased and continued to remain high, with a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 614600 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 0.06% compared to the previous period.
Recently (5.20-5.27), stable downstream tire production has provided essential support for the natural rubber market. As of May 23rd, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.5%.; As of the week of May 23rd, domestic tire companies had 43 days of finished steel tire inventory, which remained unchanged on a week on week basis; The inventory of semi-finished steel tires has been 47 days, with an increase of 1 day in the weekly cycle ratio.
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at high levels but expectations continue to decline in the later stage, downstream production remains stable, and support for natural rubber weakens. In addition, the inventory of Tianjiao Port is still at a high level; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will consolidate weakly in the later stage.

Due to weakened raw material support, sluggish demand, and bearish fundamentals, the price center of the PTA industry chain began to shift downwards in mid May. From the perspective of each product:
International crude oil prices fluctuated and fell. As of May 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.53 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $64.78 per barrel. The malfunctioning devices in the early stage of the PX market have gradually recovered, coupled with the expectation of weakening demand, resulting in a weak performance of the PX market’s high-level decline.
There were many restarts of maintenance equipment in the early stage of PTA market, and there was a slight increase in domestic supply. The downstream polyester end is expected to be pessimistic, with insufficient cost support and a lack of favorable support. As of May 26th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4917 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.8% compared to May 16th.
The market price of polyester staple fiber followed suit and fell. As of May 26th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6572 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.3% from May 16th. Mainstream polyester staple fiber manufacturers are under pressure in terms of physical inventory, and their own production has also increased. Downstream yarn factories are cautious in purchasing and maintaining demand.
The polyester filament market remains temporarily stable, with mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offering POY (150D/48F) prices ranging from 6950-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) prices ranging from 8000-8400 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) prices ranging from 7300-7400 yuan/ton. With the weakening of cost support and the failure to significantly increase orders in the textile and clothing industry, market pressure still exists.
The risk of insufficient orders and unstable cost support for terminal textile enterprises has increased, and their enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. They maintain on-demand procurement and adopt a wait-and-see attitude. May is the traditional seasonal off-season, with a lukewarm market performance and limited demand growth for weaving enterprises. In the short term, it has entered the stage of digesting inventory.
Business analysts believe that although the tariff risk has eased, the performance of terminal orders is average. Especially in the foreign trade market, there are still many uncertain factors, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. Moreover, the current trend of international oil prices remains weak, with insufficient cost support, and it is expected that the PTA industry chain will maintain a downward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market began to weaken in mid May. As of May 23, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% from May 16.
The weakening of raw material support has led to a decline in international crude oil prices. On May 22, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.20 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $64.44 per barrel. The malfunctioning devices in the early stage of the PX market have gradually recovered, coupled with the expectation of weakening demand, resulting in a weak performance of the PX market’s high-level decline.
There were many restarts of maintenance equipment in the early stage of PTA market, and there was a slight increase in domestic supply. Downstream polyester expectations are pessimistic, with insufficient cost support and a lack of favorable support, leading to a fluctuating decline in PTA prices. As of May 22, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4913 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88% from May 16.
The risk of insufficient orders from downstream textile enterprises and unstable cost support has increased. Cotton mills are cautious in pursuing higher prices, maintaining on-demand procurement, and adopting a wait-and-see attitude.
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that there is an expectation of a decline in costs, and the physical inventory of mainstream polyester staple fiber manufacturers is under pressure. Their own production will also increase, and demand is stagnant. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will remain weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 22, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6233 yuan/ton. Compared with May 19 (reference price of n-butanol is 6283 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69%.
From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that as we enter this week, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province has slightly declined. The negotiation focus of the n-butanol market in Shandong Province has slightly shifted downwards, and some factories have lowered their n-butanol shipment prices within the week by about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of May 22, the reference price for the n-butanol market in Shandong Province is around 6200-6300 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply side of n-butanol in Shandong region is basically stable. From the demand side, downstream users mainly purchase on demand, and some users are watching the market to replenish at low prices. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is average, and the supply and demand transmission is relatively loose.
Market analysis in the future
Currently, the atmosphere in the n-butanol market is average, with weak negotiations for new orders and insufficient effective support within the market. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province will mainly experience narrow adjustments in operation, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.