This week, the acrylic acid market did not continue in a completely stable state, but showed characteristics of weak stability, oscillation, and narrow downward trend. On December 16th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (6083.33 yuan/ton).
Market dynamics:
The recent “weak stable oscillation” pattern in the market is the result of the power game between supply, demand, and cost
Supply side:
Relatively stable but slightly increasing. Since early December, with the restart of some previously shut down or load reducing devices, the industry’s operating load has increased, and the market’s spot supply has gradually increased. The pricing strategy of cargo holders tends to be flexible.
Demand side:
Downstream demand is limited, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. This is consistent with the situation you mentioned of ‘downstream urgent needs follow-up’, but the overall demand momentum is insufficient. The average performance of orders in the terminal field (such as coatings, adhesives, SAP resins, etc.) has led downstream factories to adopt a strategy of “purchasing on demand and buying at low prices”, lacking enthusiasm for bulk stocking.
Cost side:
The price of the main raw material propylene remained relatively stable in early December, providing some support for the cost of acrylic acid. As of December 16th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6190.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the beginning of this month (6180.75 yuan/ton). But under weak demand, it is difficult for costs to be smoothly transmitted downstream, and the profit margins of producers are squeezed.
Short term market outlook:
Overall, the core contradiction in the current acrylic acid market is the game of “high cost and weak demand”. In the absence of strong demand pull, it is expected that the market will remain weakly consolidated within the current price range in the short term, making it difficult to see a clear directional upward trend.
In the long run, the industry is undergoing structural changes. With the commissioning of large-scale projects such as BASF Zhanjiang, supply is becoming more relaxed, and competition is shifting from “scale competition” to “technology premium”. In the future, top enterprises with high-end specialty product production capabilities and integrated cost advantages will have stronger competitiveness.
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