According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle. From December 1st to December 15th, 2025, the price of butadiene will increase from 6983.33 yuan/ton to 7400 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.97%. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle, and the recent trend of the butadiene market is relatively strong. Due to the increasing willingness of the supply side to raise prices and the linkage effect of the recent rise in external prices, it is difficult to find low-priced sources of butadiene in the domestic market. Recently, the trend of downstream synthetic rubber futures has been strong, and the utilization rate of production capacity of major downstream products such as butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber remains high. The stable performance of procurement demand provides solid fundamental support for the butadiene market, driving the price fluctuation and rise of the butadiene market.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.44 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February is $61.12 per barrel. The crude oil price market first fell and then rose in this cycle. At the beginning of this cycle, the regional situation eased slightly, and coupled with the weakening of US demand, the US tariff issue dragged down global economic and demand expectations, resulting in a low international oil price market. In the later stage, OPEC+oil producing countries postponed production increases, and the geopolitical peace agreement was unlikely to be reached. Geopolitical factors led to an upward trend in crude oil prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 7350 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan/ton.
Shenghong Refining’s 200000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton and an implementation of 7500 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 15th, the market for Shunding rubber in East China has been rising. Recently, the domestic synthetic rubber futures market has been fluctuating upwards, with some merchants offering a slight increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 10800-11200 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 10600~10800 yuan/ton. At present, there is a significant price difference between butadiene and synthetic rubber. The utilization rate of downstream butadiene rubber production capacity has reached a high of 76% this year, and the utilization rate of styrene butadiene rubber production capacity has also increased to over 80%. The downstream industry is operating steadily and the profit margin is still acceptable, which can effectively support the procurement demand for butadiene.
Market forecast: Overall, the short-term domestic butadiene market is expected to continue a strong and volatile pattern. With the support of favorable fundamentals, it is expected that there will still be some upward space in the spot market in the short term. In the future, two variables need to be focused on: the actual transaction follow-up situation in the market, and the rhythm of imported goods arriving at the port and the subsequent trend of synthetic rubber futures.
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