Precious metal prices saw a significant increase in November
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28, 2025, the morning market price of gold spot was 948.59 yuan/gram, an increase of 3.26% from the gold spot market price of 918.62 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (November 1).
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver in the market on November 28, 2025 was 12649.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 10.22% compared to the average price of 11476 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (November 1).
Forecast of Precious Metal Gold and Silver Market in December 2025
In December 2025, both gold and silver are supported by the core factor of the Federal Reserve’s high probability of interest rate cuts, showing an overall bullish trend. However, there is a risk of short-term volatility and correction due to data fluctuations and profit taking. The specific market forecast is as follows:
gold
The overall gold market in December is bullish, with spot gold exceeding $4150 per ounce by the end of November. Driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, the upward trend is likely to continue in December.
Summarize the forecast information of institutions, among which HSBC is the most optimistic, looking at $4600 per ounce; ANZ Bank has a forecast of $4400 per ounce by the end of December, while Bank of America has an annual average price expectation of $4438 per ounce; Goldman Sachs and UBS are relatively stable, with gold prices expected to reach $3700 per ounce and $3500 per ounce in December, respectively. At the same time, the market also has a consensus target price range of $4500 to $4800 for year-end gold prices.
Core supporting factors:
One is the strong expectation of interest rate cuts. The current CME Federal Reserve observation tool shows a probability of 84.9% for a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December. The interest rate cut will push the US dollar to weaken and real interest rates to fall, reducing the cost of holding gold and promoting funds to flow from monetary funds and short-term bonds to gold.
Secondly, the buying support is stable, with dual buying from global central banks and ETFs continuing, while gold supply growth is almost zero, and the supply-demand pattern forms support for prices.
Potential risks and volatility: If the US employment, consumption and other data in December unexpectedly strengthen, it may lead to the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts. At that time, the rebound in real interest rates will suppress gold prices or trigger a short-term correction.
silver
Silver is likely to experience strong fluctuations at a high level in December, while spot silver has already surpassed historical highs in November. It is highly likely that the trend of strong fluctuations at a high level will continue in December. Based on institutional forecasts, the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute believes that it may hit $55 per ounce before the end of the year; HSBC expects to reach $49 per ounce by the end of the year, with a price range of $45-53 per ounce; Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have a conservative attitude, predicting that silver prices will rise to $37/ounce and $38/ounce respectively by the end of the year.
Core supporting factors: On the one hand, the macroeconomic policy dividend continues. With the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate cut, the environment of a weaker US dollar and lower yields is in line with the rising demand for silver, and the market’s expectation of a correction in the gold silver ratio is also driving silver to make up for the rise. On the other hand, the industrial demand foundation is solid, with silver industry demand accounting for nearly 60%. The demand in the three major fields of photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers is strong. Although the unit consumption of silver for photovoltaics has decreased, the growth in installed capacity has driven the overall demand, and global silver has been in short supply for five consecutive years. The supply-demand gap in December will still support prices.
Potential risks and volatility: Silver’s current volatility has significantly increased, and it has shifted from a unilateral trend to a high volatility turnover stage. If the expectation of interest rate cuts declines or if the resilience of the US economy exceeds expectations, it may trigger a rapid adjustment. In addition, the significant increase in silver prices in the early stage, coupled with the demand for some short-term funds to take profits, will also limit the increase in December, making it difficult to achieve a unilateral surge in prices.
| http://www.thiourea.net |