In November, the domestic electrolytic nickel market struggled to move forward amidst fluctuating macro sentiment and solid fundamentals. The spot price once fell to a five-year low. Although it experienced a oversold rebound in the latter half of the year, the two mountains of “high inventory” and “weak demand” firmly suppressed the upward space of the price.
Price trend: under pressure, bottoming out, weak oscillation
As of November 27th, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 119366 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 2.35% during the month. The electrolytic nickel market has experienced a roller coaster ride this month, putting overall pressure on the market.
·From early to mid month: Continuous bearish trend. Under the triple pressure of a strong US dollar, oversupply, and weak downstream demand, the center of gravity of nickel prices continues to shift downwards, reaching a new low in nearly five years.
·Late period: oversold rebound. With the Federal Reserve releasing a “dovish” signal, market expectations of interest rate cuts are heating up, coupled with low prices stimulating some inventory replenishment behavior, nickel prices are experiencing a technical rebound.
Macro: long and short intertwined, emotions dominate short-term fluctuations
Negative pressure: The strong breakthrough of the US dollar index above the 100 mark has caused widespread suppression of metals priced in US dollars, which is an important external factor that has put pressure on prices this month.
Positive boost: In the latter half of the year, the Federal Reserve’s attitude turned dovish and the easing signal of Sino US trade injected confidence into the market, becoming a direct catalyst for this round of rebound.
Supply side: The overall surplus pattern is stable, and the expectations of the mining side are difficult to solve
Inventory pressure: LME and Shanghai Stock Exchange inventories continue to accumulate, both rising to high levels for the year. As of November 27th, LME nickel inventory increased by 3348 tons to 255450 tons during the month, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 2160 tons to 33548 tons. The extremely high global explicit inventory is the most direct and heavy factor in suppressing nickel prices.
The import of raw materials has contracted month on month, but the total supply is abundant: in October 2025, the import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrate in China was 4.6828 million tons, which decreased by 23.50% month on month, but still increased by 11.82% year-on-year. The month on month decline is mainly affected by the seasonal factor of the rainy season in the Philippines, which is a normal fluctuation. A year-on-year positive growth indicates that the overall supply of raw materials is still abundant.
Mining supply is facing long-term tightening expectations: the rainy season in the Philippines has arrived, and the mining and shipping volume of mainstream mining areas is seasonally declining. Indonesia plans to lower its nickel ore production target for 2026 and may control investment in new smelters, which could slow down global nickel supply growth in the long run. But the key is that these policies have little impact on changing the current short-term surplus situation.
Demand side: Both traditional and emerging engines stall
Weak demand for stainless steel: social inventory of stainless steel has accumulated, and some manufacturers have pushed forward maintenance and production reduction plans. On November 27th, the spot price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was reported at 12540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.79% for the month. The fluctuation of the stainless steel industry has directly weakened the demand for upstream primary nickel (especially nickel iron) and transmitted it to electrolytic nickel through the industrial chain.
The support for the new energy sector has slowed down: the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has increased, continuously squeezing the market for low and medium nickel ternary materials. The addition of overseas tariff barriers restricts the export of precursor materials, and the demand growth momentum for nickel in the new energy sector is insufficient. Despite overall compression, ternary battery technology itself is accelerating towards high nickel direction, which brings new growth points for the quality and structure of nickel used in batteries in the future. However, it is difficult to reverse the weak demand in the short term.
Market forecast: Limited rebound space
Short term nickel prices are expected to maintain a ‘low volatility’ pattern. Any rebound driven by macro sentiment will face ruthl
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ess tests of high inventory and weak demand, with extremely limited room for rebound.