1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices fluctuated widely in a “W” shape in November. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 87595 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 86715 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 17.36%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices were mostly higher than futures prices in November. The main contract is the expected price in two months, and the expected future price of copper is mainly weaker than the overall price.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly increased in November. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 156575 tons, up 17.2% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, on November 21st, New York Fed’s Williams made dovish remarks, with the market’s probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising sharply from about 40% at the beginning of the month to 82.9%. The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to a weakening of the US dollar, boosting copper prices denominated in US dollars.
Supply side: The production of major copper mines worldwide, such as Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, continues to be disrupted. Copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RC) are at a historical low, and some smelters are facing losses. China has suspended the construction of 2 million tons of new smelting capacity.
Downstream: Traditional demand is weak: copper demand in fields such as construction, real estate, and home appliances is sluggish. Strong emerging demand: copper consumption in areas such as power infrastructure, new energy vehicles, and AI data centers has increased, forming an effective hedge.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have fluctuated widely in December over the past five years, with no significant fluctuations.
In summary, the International Copper Research Group (ICSG) predicts that the global copper supply and demand gap will widen from 150000 tons in 2025 to 300000 tons in 2026. Some institutions predict that by 2026, LME copper prices may reach 13000 US dollars per ton, and Shanghai copper prices may exceed 100000 yuan per ton. The future policy path of the Federal Reserve still remains uncertain. The sustained high copper prices will exacerbate the cost pressure on downstream enterprises. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate widely in December.
| http://www.thiourea.net |