According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has shown a fluctuating upward trend since November. As of November 20th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4656 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.48% from the beginning of the month. Thanks to the lifting of BIS certification in India and the early maintenance of some PTA facilities due to unforeseen circumstances, the upper supply structure has been improved and export growth is expected to be driven. However, the market lacks new drivers, so the overall price increase in the market is not significant.
In the future, under the trend of oversupply in the crude oil market, there is a natural downward drive for the center of gravity of oil prices. However, geopolitical factors continue to inject uncertainty into the market and to some extent hedge the downward pressure of oversupply. Oil prices will maintain a fluctuating and repetitive operating rhythm, and in the short term, they will continue to maintain high volatility characteristics. As of November 19th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $59.44 per barrel, and the settlement price of the January Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.51 per barrel.
In terms of PTA’s own supply, the domestic industry’s operating load is around 71%. Short term PTA processing fees are still low, and inventory remains low.
The cancellation of BIS certification in India has led to a significant improvement in downstream polyester filament inquiries, coupled with the restart of polyester facilities and the planned deployment of new polyester production capacity, which has driven a rebound in PTA demand. In the short term, polyester prices are still supported by cost increases and expectations of increased polyester exports from India.
Business analysts believe that there are still plans for PTA equipment maintenance within the month, downstream polyester demand remains stable, PTA supply and demand continue to be depleted, and prices remain relatively strong. But with the seasonal decline in demand and the slow decrease in terminal load, the upward momentum of PTA prices is hindered.
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