There has been no significant improvement in the fundamentals this week, with overall supply remaining loose and the market range consolidating. As of November 14th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8000-8150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week’s low-end and an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the high-end; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 7800-8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week’s low-end price.
Loose supply:
The fundamental fluctuations in supply and demand during the cycle are not significant, and the overall sales of manufacturers are stable, with inventory maintained at a controllable pace. According to statistics, as of November 13th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 78.68%, an increase of 0.69% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 89700 tons, which is+0.08 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 52800 tons, which is+0.02 million tons compared to last week and basically the same as last week.
Requirements:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has increased, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 71.8%, an increase of 0.2% compared to last week; Capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises: 73.39%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 54.64%, an increase of 1.36% compared to last week. Overall, the overall demand growth is limited.
Cost reduction:
During the week, the prices of upstream propylene and synthetic ammonia rebounded, and the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production increased. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices still showed a slight upward trend, and this week’s production profits have staged a recovery. As of November 13th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 5760-5800 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 5600-5630 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price of acrylonitrile slightly increased, and the production loss situation significantly improved this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8180 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.42%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -99 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 6 yuan/ton.
In the later stage prediction, the domestic acrylonitrile market is currently fluctuating within a certain range, with no pressure on the inventory of the main contract factories and continuous price hikes. At the same time, there is unplanned demand in the Shandong market in the short term, supporting the mentality of industry players. However, the overall supply is still loose, and the short-term market range is mainly consolidating.
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