Market Overview (11.7-11.18)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 117383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14% during the week, hitting a five-year low and a year-on-year decline of 5.97%. The continuous decline in nickel prices is mainly suppressed by three factors: macroeconomic pressure, oversupply, and weak demand.
Macro level:
Limited policy adjustments in Indonesia: Although the Indonesian Government Regulation No. 28 of 2025 restricts investment in new nickel smelters and plans to lower the nickel ore quota (RKAB) for 2026, the policy has a weak impact on short-term supply and the market response is flat. In the long run, the supply of nickel ore in Indonesia remains high and has not been able to reverse expectations of oversupply.
Economic and policy uncertainty in the United States: The lack of employment data and the risk of government shutdown have dragged down economic expectations, and GDP in the fourth quarter may decline by 1.5%. There is a clear divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the path of interest rates, with hawkish signals suppressing expectations of rate cuts, and the strengthening of the US dollar intensifying downward pressure on commodity prices denominated in US dollars, including nickel.
China’s economic resilience vs. insufficient demand support: China’s industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year in October, and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 8.0%, indicating the resilience of economic recovery. However, the downstream areas of nickel (such as stainless steel and new energy) have not improved synchronously, and macro benefits have not been transmitted to the nickel demand side.
Supply side:
Loose supply at the mining end: Typhoon weather in the Philippines only briefly affected shipments, and the domestic trade price of Indonesia’s second phase nickel ore in November slightly fell to $14998.67 per ton, reflecting an overall sufficient supply at the mining end and weakened cost support.
Global inventory continues to accumulate: LME nickel inventory increased by 4566 tons to 257694 tons during the cycle, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 2735 tons to 35424 tons. The synchronous increase of internal and external inventory highlights the stable pattern of oversupply in the global nickel market, directly suppressing the rebound space of nickel prices.
Demand side:
Weak demand for stainless steel: Social inventory of stainless steel has accumulated. On November 18th, the spot price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was reported at 12550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95% during the cycle. The lack of willingness for steel mills to reduce production and the lack of improvement in terminal consumption (construction, home appliances, etc.) have caused fluctuations in the stainless steel market, dragging down demand for nickel.
Weakened support in the field of new energy: The penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate battery technology route has increased, continuously squeezing the market for low and medium nickel ternary materials. The addition of overseas tariff barriers restricts the export of precursor materials, and the demand growth momentum for nickel in the new energy sector is insufficient.
Market forecast:
Short term nickel prices will continue to be under pressure and operate weakly. Supply surplus and inventory pressure remain unresolved, and there is no significant improvement signal on the demand side. Nickel prices may continue to bottom out.
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