On March 9, 2026, the domestic energy and chemical sector experienced severe fluctuations. The main PTA contract opened at a limit up price of 6290 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 6316 yuan/ton during trading, with an increase of 7.01%. The trading volume quickly increased to over 1.12 million lots. The spot market followed the rise of futures, and the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society showed that on March 9th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5857 yuan/ton, up 1.62% from the previous trading day.
The core driving force behind this market trend is the surge in crude oil prices caused by the escalation of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. As a necessary passage for one-fifth of the global shipping of crude oil, the strait has fallen into a “soft blockade” due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Iraq has reduced production by 1.5 million barrels per day, and countries such as Kuwait have followed suit, causing international oil prices to skyrocket. On Friday, March 6th, NYMEX crude oil futures took the lead in a surge, with the active April crude oil contract closing up $9.89, a 12.21% increase, and settling at $90.90 per barrel. This week, the cumulative increase was $23.88, a 35.63% increase. Brent crude oil futures closed up $7.28 in May, an increase of 8.52%, with a settlement price of $92.69 per barrel, achieving a sixth consecutive trading day of gains and a cumulative increase of 27.2% this week. As the source of the PTA industry chain, crude oil directly increases the production cost of PTA. The cost increase caused by this geopolitical shock has built a solid bottom for PTA prices.
The rapid transmission of market sentiment and the synergistic effect of the industrial chain have accelerated the formation of the daily limit up. Upstream varieties such as crude oil and PX collectively hit the daily limit up, driving the overall sentiment of the energy and chemical sector to rise. PTA, as the core raw material of the polyester industry chain, is linked with downstream polyester and polyester varieties, and the sharp rise in upstream costs has triggered expectations of a rebound in the industry chain.
From the perspective of supply and demand, 2026 is the “production vacuum period” for the PTA industry. There is no new production capacity added domestically, and the existing effective production capacity is about 94 million tons. Some high cost equipment will be shut down for a long time, and the industry’s supply elasticity is extremely low. In March, some facilities were restarted, but the maintenance plans of major factories such as Yizheng Chemical Fiber offset the increase, and the actual supply is still in a tight balance state. Currently, the utilization rate of PTA production capacity in China is around 80%. However, there is a short-term contradiction of lagging terminal demand. Currently, it is in the post holiday resumption stage, and the comprehensive operating rate of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is only 39%. The polyester load has recovered to around 83%, which is lower than the same period in previous years. Terminal orders have not yet been implemented on a large scale, and downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high priced raw materials, which hinders cost transmission and creates a differentiation pattern of “strong cost, weak demand”.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, geopolitical risks will still dominate the PTA price trend. If the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is not restored for a long time, cost support will continue to exist. With the arrival of the peak demand season, the acceleration of terminal resumption of work is expected to alleviate the supply-demand contradiction, and there is still room for PTA prices to rise. We need to be vigilant about the price correction after the easing of geopolitical risks, and focus on the progress of cross-strait navigation, the landing of equipment maintenance, and the pace of downstream order recovery.
| http://www.thiourea.net |