Price trend
Recently, the domestic POM market has stopped falling and stabilized, with spot prices hitting bottom and rebounding narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 24th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.62% from the price level at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
The domestic methanol market has recently seen a narrow rise, and the current fundamental contradiction is not significant. The construction of enterprise facilities is at a high level, and downstream enterprises have a certain resistance to high prices. But the social inventory position is relatively low, and the market atmosphere in the early stage is still good. At present, the supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is expected that the short-term domestic methanol market price consolidation will be the main focus.
In terms of supply:
Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has declined, and the overall load has decreased by about 9%, with a rate of 71%. The synchronous reduction in production has partially digested the inventory position of the enterprise. Some manufacturers have implemented price adjustments, coupled with rising external prices, overall supply pressure has eased, and supply side support for POM spot has increased.
In terms of demand:
Recently, the inventory situation of downstream POM enterprises in China has been average, and most of them just need to pick up goods to maintain production. The consumption level continues to maintain the previous weak trend, and the main logic of factories is still to digest inventory. As the end of the month approaches, traders are engaging in profit giving and order taking operations, making it difficult to maintain a smooth trading atmosphere on the exchange. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.
Future Market Forecast
The recent trend of the POM market has stopped falling and stabilized, followed by consolidation and operation. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has decreased, and there is still an expectation of a decline. The pressure on the supply side has been alleviated to some extent, and manufacturers may raise prices or rebound narrowly. Downstream consumer follow-up remains weak, with no significant release of pre holiday stocking. The current supply and demand of POM are intertwined, and it is expected that the short-term market may remain stagnant.
| http://www.thiourea.net |