The Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant was successfully put into operation within the week, with increased supply. Supported by the increase in raw material costs, the spot market price of acrylonitrile remained stable. As of June 20th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports remains at 8100-8200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market remains at around 8050-8150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week’s low-end price.
This week, the market is paying attention to the progress of new equipment, with a negative attitude. However, there is no pressure on inventory in the short term (as of June 18th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 43600 tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from last week), and market negotiations are being maintained under cost support. At present, the supply and demand fundamentals are maintaining a weak balance, and overall sales of manufacturers are still acceptable with no inventory pressure, resulting in overall price stability. On the one hand, market attention is focused on the production and supply growth of the new Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant, resulting in low buying enthusiasm. On the other hand, the sharp rise in crude oil prices has triggered market expectations of an increase in acrylonitrile costs, leading to a decrease in low price negotiations on the market. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and operations are cautious under bearish sentiment, resulting in an overall trading stalemate.
The capacity utilization rate of the main downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, and the production of acrylic fiber industry continues to increase, with the overall load reaching over 60%; The ABS industry has maintained a production rate of around 60%. As of June 19th, the ABS capacity utilization rate was 63.97%, a decrease of 0.05% compared to the same period last week. Raw materials are purchased on demand, and the overall demand performance is average.
The international oil price continues to rise, coupled with the current supply and demand support, the willingness of enterprises to raise prices is prominent, and the propylene market price continued to be strong during the week. As of June 19th, the price of propylene in Shandong region is between 6460-6510 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Overall, there is no pressure on factory inventory in the short term, and the overall quotation is maintained with the support of rising raw material costs. However, the Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant has been successfully put into operation, with an increase in supply and a lack of significant growth space in demand. The supply-demand contradiction and cost pressure may result in supply variables in the future. Market bearish sentiment still exists, and there is an expectation of a decline in acrylonitrile prices, but the space is still limited.
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