price trend
In early May, the domestic PC market was in a state of consolidation and operation, with some spot prices of certain brands fluctuating. As of May 10th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16233.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In early May, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises still decreased. The entire line of Cangzhou Dahua in the interval will be shut down for maintenance, with an industry load of around 74%. There are still maintenance plans in the future, and the expected increase in production losses. At present, the average weekly output is over 60000 tons, and overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market continued to consolidate at a low level at the end of last month in May. Due to fluctuations in international crude oil prices and the decline in phenol prices, the center of gravity of domestic bisphenol A prices has been dragged. At the same time, the current supply of bisphenol A has limited changes while demand remains weak. Merchants are actively shipping and tend to sell at discounted prices. The overall support for PC cost value has weakened.
On the demand side: Due to the lack of improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises, the transmission of high PC spot prices is hindered. The load position of downstream factories of PC remains relatively low. Although the current PC price has fallen from a high level, it is still within the three-year high range. The buyer is cautious in stocking up and has a poor willingness to build a warehouse. Pre holiday inventory still needs to be digested, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, resulting in slow liquidity of goods sources. The merchant’s mentality is not strong, and their offers are made according to the market, resulting in an increase in profit giving and order taking operations. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In early May, the domestic PC market was consolidating at a high level. The price consolidation of upstream bisphenol A is weak, and the cost value provides moderate support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has slightly decreased, although there are still expectations of a decline, the supply side benefits are limited. On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, and buyers have a cautious mentality, taking whatever they need. Trading is mostly small orders. It is expected that the PC market will continue to be suppressed by fluctuations in cost values in the short term, and there may still be room for downward adjustment.
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