This week, the domestic naphtha market remained stable at a high level. Data shows that the benchmark price of naphtha on August 4th was 7720 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of August. The price range display shows that the 10 day period is at a medium high level, the 20 90 day cycle is all at a high level, the one-year period is at a medium level, the medium and long-term price levels are rising, and spot prices are at a temporary high level.
supply side
Supply contraction is the core support of the market. Disruption of some overseas refinery facilities has led to a decrease in Asian arbitrage imports; The maintenance and adjustment of domestic refineries have led to a contraction in commodity circulation, providing a support for the market. Due to the fluctuation of international crude oil caused by the disturbance of the international situation, the cost side has formed strong support for naphtha, limiting the space for deep price correction.
Demand side
The downstream cracking and aromatic hydrocarbon units will continue to operate, with a demand for rigid raw material procurement. But currently, naphtha is at a high level, downstream processing profits are compressed, and the willingness of enterprises to chase high prices is weak. They mainly purchase on demand, and there are not many proactive actions to replenish inventory. The demand side lacks the driving force to continue to push up prices.
Market prediction
The logic of short-term supply tightening is still in place, with solid support on the cost side, and naphtha is likely to continue its high volatility pattern. However, prices have generally reached high levels in each cycle, and downstream capacity is limited, making it difficult to make a significant upward breakthrough. The focus will be on the international crude oil trend, the arrival of imported cargo at ports, the progress of domestic refinery maintenance, and changes in downstream plant operation.
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