In the first half of September, the dichloromethane market continued its strong upward trend since the end of August. As of September 15th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2395 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.66% from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Market Driving Factors
Cost side: Strong upward trend of dual raw materials, forming the core driving force
The direct raw materials of dichloromethane are methanol and liquid chlorine, and their prices strengthened synchronously in the first half of September, which is the core driving force behind this round of rebound. Methanol continues to rise, with an increase of over 15% within half a month. The significant increase in methanol prices has directly pushed up the production cost of dichloromethane. Liquid chlorine has gradually rebounded from around 150 yuan/ton in early September, with an increase of over 100% within half a month. The rapid recovery of liquid chlorine has a significant marginal impact on the cost side.
Supply and demand: The supply is still relatively loose, and the demand is lukewarm
On the supply side, the operating rate of the methane chloride industry showed a rebound trend in the first half of September. In August, some major enterprises reduced their losses or stopped for maintenance, but there was a lack of obvious new maintenance plans in September. In addition, Gansu Juhua’s new production capacity is expected to be released, and the overall supply in the industry is still relatively loose.
On the demand side, September entered the traditional seasonal demand peak season, but the actual performance was mediocre. There is an expected growth in demand for R32 refrigerant in the core downstream sector, but the increase is limited due to flat terminal consumption; The overall orders for downstream solvents (coatings, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, etc.) are weak, and there is a lack of initiative to replenish inventory; The demand in the export market has also been lackluster. After a round of concentrated replenishment in early September, the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to receive goods began to decline in mid September, and the demand side’s ability to accept high prices has weakened.
Future forecast
Against the backdrop of high prices of raw materials such as methanol and liquid chlorine in the short term, the cost side still provides strong support for the bottom of prices, and manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices will not diminish in the short term. But after a rapid rise in early September, the price has risen to a temporary high, and downstream resistance to high prices has increased. The follow-up efforts of the demand side have slowed down, and the space for further significant upward movement is constrained. It is expected that the short-term market will mainly fluctuate at a high level and narrow range, digesting the previous gains.
| http://www.thiourea.net |