This week, supply has increased while demand has been weak. Manufacturers have continuously lowered their quotes, and the price of raw material propylene continues to rise sharply. The market has rebounded after a decline near the weekend. As of September 11th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 10900-11000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600-700 yuan/ton compared to last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is between 10650-10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Supply increase:
During the week, the acrylonitrile plant in East China gradually resumed as scheduled, and the overall supply significantly increased. According to statistics, this week (September 4-10), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 74.02%, an increase of 1.83% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 86400 tons, which is+0.22 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The supply gradually increased during the week, and the inventory of some enterprises rose. On September 9th, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 46500 tons, an increase of+0.65 million tons from last week.
Decreased demand:
This week, the overall utilization rate of downstream major industries’ production capacity decreased, with ABS production capacity utilization rate at 56.4%, a decrease of -1.1% compared to last week, and some factories experiencing a decrease in load; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 49.83%, which was -1.42% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 56.81%, an increase of 0.94% compared to last week. Overall, the demand for acrylonitrile has decreased.
Cost increase:
During the week, crude oil and propylene prices rose strongly, leading to a significant increase in raw material costs. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices experienced a wide decline, resulting in a significant decrease in theoretical production profits. According to statistics, as of September 11th, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market is based on 10000-10050 yuan/ton, with an average price of 10025 yuan/ton, an increase of 725 yuan/ton from last week; The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 12155 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 2.94%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -1155 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -1097 yuan/ton.
Post forecast: Currently, the fundamentals are still weak, but the pressure on the cost side is increasing. Suppliers are stabilizing prices and observing, and spot trading is also improving. The supply side maintains growth, but the increase is not as expected. Due to the significant increase in raw material costs, the pressure of losses may prompt some devices to reduce their load. At the same time, the mentality of buying up may also stimulate downstream users to follow up and replenish. There is also a certain demand for stocking before the long holiday. In addition, overseas supply is limited, and export volume has also increased in stages. Overall, the acrylonitrile market may have a slight rebound performance in the short term.
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