This cycle, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market fluctuated and fell. The average price on October 8th was 103750 yuan/ton, and by the end of October 29th, the average price had closed at 90750 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 12.53% in the range.
The overall market trend is showing a continuous weakening trend, with a rapid decline in the early stage and a slowing down of the decline towards the end of the month, gradually entering a weak and stable stage. The overall transaction volume in the market is light, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment downstream, with a focus on immediate procurement and use. The lack of centralized stocking is the main factor driving the price decline in this round. The tight supply of antimony concentrate resources and high smelting costs have formed a bottom support for antimony prices, limiting the potential for further price declines. As a result, the negotiation range at the end of the month has gradually narrowed.
Supply side:
In October, the supply of antimony concentrate remained tight, with strict control over domestic mines and limited release of new ore sources. The low inventory status at the mining end did not show significant improvement, and the high cost of smelting raw materials continued to support the price of antimony ingots. The operating level of mainstream smelters is relatively stable, with no concentrated resumption of production or large-scale production reduction. The overall circulation of spot goods in the market is limited, and social inventory is in a low position. In the early stage, smelting enterprises had a strong willingness to raise prices and were unwilling to ship at low prices. However, downstream demand continued to be weak, and some holders chose to sell at a discount in order to recoup their funds, driving the spot prices to continue to decline. As we enter the end of the month, low-priced goods are gradually being consumed, and smelters’ willingness to proactively lower prices and ship has weakened, easing the marginal negative impact of the supply side on the market.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. In this cycle, the downstream of antimony ingots only maintained essential procurement, and the expectation of stocking up during peak season fell short. Downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to hoard goods, and transactions are mainly short and small orders, resulting in overall weak demand.
Antimony oxide: Antimony oxide is the traditional largest downstream of antimony ingots, mainly used in the field of flame retardant materials. The flame retardant industry is operating steadily, but the increase in terminal orders is insufficient. In the continuous downward trend of antimony ingot prices, downstream flame retardant enterprises have lowered prices to avoid risks, antimony oxide factories have weak willingness to actively stock up, and antimony ingot consumption has been insufficient, which continues to drag down spot transactions of antimony ingots.
Photovoltaic: Photovoltaic glass is the long-term core incremental track for antimony ingots, and the logic of long-term expansion remains unchanged. However, the procurement pace of photovoltaic glass enterprises in this cycle has been cautious, prioritizing the consumption of their previous inventory and only picking up goods in small batches as needed. There has been no centralized replenishment of inventory, and there has been no significant increase in procurement volume, which has limited short-term driving effect on antimony ingots.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market is likely to continue its low-level weak stable oscillation trend. The bearish trend mainly comes from the demand side. There is currently no centralized replenishment plan for the photovoltaic and antimony oxide sectors, and the wait-and-see sentiment at the end is difficult to dissipate in the short term. Weak transactions will continue to suppress antimony prices. Positive support comes from the tight supply of antimony concentrate resources, low overall inventory in the industry, and the bottoming out of smelting costs. The space for antimony ingots to continue to decline significantly is limited. In the future, we will focus on the increase in production in the antimony oxide flame retardant industry, the pace of downstream inventory replenishment, and the large-scale procurement of raw materials by photovoltaic glass enterprises. If downstream centralized inventory replenishment is released, there is a chance for antimony ingots to rebound; If demand continues to remain weak and rigid, the market will continue to fluctuate at a low level. In the medium to long term, the constraints of antimony ore resources persist, and the continuous expansion of the photovoltaic industry brings stable demand growth. The antimony price operation center has the potential for upward movement.
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