机翻 · 通用领域
This week, the domestic light rare earth market price trend has declined. On October 22, the rare earth index was 642 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 36.25% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 136.90% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015.
This week, the prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide in China have all declined. As of the weekend, the price of neodymium oxide was 760000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98%; The price of neodymium metal is 940000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% in price; The price of praseodymium oxide is 757500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% in price; The price of praseodymium metal is 987500 yuan/ton, with a price trend decline of 1.0%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 892500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11% in price; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 730000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% in price.
This week, the domestic light rare earth market prices have declined, and the prices of core products have also decreased. The main reason for this round of decline is the loosening of the supply side margin, and the abundance of spot goods has suppressed prices; In addition, after the demand side became sluggish, there was a significant decrease in purchasing willingness due to the lack of supply.
1、 Supply side: Marginal loosening, abundant spot prices suppressing prices
The spot supply of light rare earths has shown marginal looseness during the same period, weakening price support. Myanmar is an important source of rare earth imports for China. In September, the amount of unlisted rare earth oxide imported from Myanmar by China surged from 1346 tons in August to 3509 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month, accounting for 70% of the total amount of similar imports for the month. Myanmar mines are an important source of supplementary raw materials for light rare earths, and the phased recovery of their supply directly increases the looseness of the spot market. Recently, some holders of goods have stopped raising prices and instead offered to sell at lower prices in exchange for liquidity. At the same time, some of the previously unsold praseodymium neodymium spot goods have also begun to flow into the market, which has eased the short-term supply-demand contradiction to some extent, but has directly suppressed prices.
2、 Demand side: After the holiday, there will be a shortage of supply and demand, and the willingness to purchase will significantly shrink
Before the National Day holiday, downstream magnetic material companies conducted a round of centralized replenishment, but after the holiday, terminal orders did not keep up, leading to a “demand gap period” in the market. The release of terminal demand fell short of expectations, and the demand release of major downstream industries such as new energy and motors was slower than expected. As a result, magnetic material companies generally turned to on-demand replenishment, and their willingness to stock up on a large scale was not strong. Pre holiday replenishment overdraft, post holiday focus on digesting inventory: Magnetic material companies have completed phased replenishment in the early stage, and downstream mainly consume existing inventory after the holiday. The growth rate of new purchase orders has significantly slowed down, and the overall demand for magnetic materials for mid-range variable frequency air conditioners and other household appliances is weak.
In the short term, the rare earth market continues to operate weakly. The recent decline in light rare earths is the result of a mismatch in demand pace after the holiday, a recovery in supply margins, and a cooling market sentiment. Cost support determines that the slope of price decline is relatively gentle, rather than a rapid decline. The key to stabilizing in the future lies in whether the new orders of magnetic material enterprises can be effectively released within the traditional stocking window in the fourth quarter, and whether the import rhythm of overseas raw materials such as Myanmar will be disturbed again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.
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