1、 Price trend
As of October 22, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China is 6366 yuan/ton. The white carbon black market has not shown a unified upward or downward trend, but has clearly differentiated into “low-level stability of general precipitation method white carbon black, and strong operation of high-end tire grade and gas-phase method white carbon black”. In the short term, general products are still constrained by overcapacity and downstream price pressure; High end products benefit from the demand for green tires, silicone rubber, and special materials, with strong price resilience.
2、 Market analysis
The overall operating rate of the domestic white carbon black industry is about 75% -82%, and top enterprises rely on stable customers and long-term cooperative orders to ensure relatively stable device operation; Small and medium-sized enterprises mainly adjust their production load based on the order situation, and the operating level of general grade production lines is significantly lower than that of high-end specialized grades.
Upstream costs: The main costs of precipitation method white carbon black include sodium silicate, sulfuric acid, soda ash, quartz sand, as well as energy costs such as steam and electricity. Gas phase method white carbon black is more affected by methyl trichlorosilane, organic silicon monomers, and energy costs. Recently, the price of soda ash has been fluctuating at a low level, and there has been a decrease in supply and inventory depletion in some areas due to equipment maintenance. However, downstream demand is average, and the price rebound power is insufficient. The sulfuric acid market presents regional and process differentiation, and some areas are affected by maintenance, with prices being relatively strong. Overall, there has not been a significant unilateral upward trend, and the supply of raw materials such as sodium silicate and quartz sand is relatively sufficient.
Downstream demand: Tires are still the most important downstream market for white carbon black. The traditional replacement tire and all steel tire fields are generally in operation, and enterprises face high pressure on raw material and finished product inventory. The procurement strategy is mainly based on on-demand procurement and inventory control, which has a certain degree of suppression on general white carbon black. However, the demand for highly dispersed white carbon black from green tires and high-performance tires continues to grow, and the cost price difference between white carbon black and carbon black has widened, which has also increased the enthusiasm of tire enterprises to increase the amount of white carbon black. However, the adjustment of tire formula, product verification, and customer certification cycles are relatively long, and the increment brought by material substitution will not be released in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that if tire companies continue to have low production and inventory levels, it will be difficult for the demand for general white carbon black to improve significantly. In the short term, the white carbon black market will continue to have a differentiation pattern of “weak stability of general products and strong preference for high-end products”. In the fourth quarter, the cost side will provide some support for the bottom of prices, but the main factors that truly determine whether prices can rise are still the recovery of downstream demand and the strength of supply side production control.
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