Market Review: From October 14th to 20th, the mainstream ex factory price of PA66 in China remained stable at 19100 yuan/ton, unchanged for a week, with a daily increase or decrease of 0%, and the market entered a sideways consolidation stage. From the perspective of cycle position, the dimensions of the past 10 days, 20 days, 60 days, and 90 days are in the high range, and the one-year dimension is in the middle low range.
Cost side: The fluctuation of upstream adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine raw materials is limited, and there is no clear driving force for the rise or fall of raw material costs. The support of costs for PA66 is relatively stable, lacking unilateral driving force.
Supply and demand side: in terms of supply, the starting load of domestic mainstream production enterprises remains stable, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, and the factory has no centralized price adjustment, production restriction and price fixing action for the time being; The downstream modification, injection molding, and textile terminals on the demand side mainly focus on on-demand procurement, and the follow-up of essential orders is smooth. There is a lack of centralized replenishment market, and the supply-demand game is balanced. There is no obvious supply-demand gap or accumulated inventory pressure, which is the core reason for the price stalemate.
Short term forecast for the future: PA66 is likely to continue its volatile pattern in the short term, with high short-term cycle constraints above, resulting in significant resistance to rapid upward movement; Below, there is support from raw material costs and the mid to low level of the year, with limited room for deep decline. The market fluctuates slightly with downstream order rhythms.
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