In the first half of October, dimethyl carbonate (DMC) showed an overall trend of a post holiday surge followed by a high-level decline, with short-term expectations of a weak stalemate and limited upward space. As of October 15th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 6033 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Market Driving Factors
Cost: In the first half of the month, the raw material side epoxy propane increased by over 7%, and methanol first increased by over 7%, which boosted the cost aspect at one point; But the subsequent decline in methanol led to a shift in support from strong to weak.
Supply: After the holiday, both equipment shutdown and resumption of production coexist. The weekly output and capacity utilization rate were low in the early stage, tight in the early stage, and the supply is expected to increase in the later stage.
Demand: There will be restocking after the holiday, and the foreign trade side will continue to follow the port, but there is resistance from downstream to high prices. The support for essential needs is still there, and the willingness to chase high prices is insufficient.
Emotion: The manufacturer initially raised prices significantly, but then transactions weakened, and the market became more cautious, resulting in increased resistance to price increases.
Market forecast: From a comprehensive perspective of cost, supply and demand, market sentiment, and technical aspects, short-term dimethyl carbonate is expected to remain stagnant and weakly volatile, with limited upward potential and slight downward pressure on the center of gravity.
The cost boost brought by the previous surge in raw material prices is gradually diminishing, and if methanol and epichlorohydrin experience a slight correction in the future, it will further weaken the bottom support; With the resumption of maintenance equipment on the supply side, the expected increase in market supply is rising, and the tight supply pattern is gradually easing. The demand side only needs to support the bottom, while the downstream resists high prices. The replenishment is basically fulfilled in stages, and the favorable conditions for foreign trade and port consolidation are difficult to sustain in driving spot goods. There is a lack of buying opportunities to chase after high prices. The market sentiment has shifted from previous manufacturers raising prices to a wait-and-see game, with weak follow-up on transactions and significant resistance to price increases.
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