1、 Market Review
In the past week (October 7-13), the spot price of PA66 in the market remained stagnant, with the benchmark spot price stabilizing at 19100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase or decrease of 0.00%. The mainstream manufacturers’ slice quotations have basically maintained the level of last week, with the market average remaining unchanged and no clear trend signal; From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 60 day and 3-month cycles are in the high range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range. The price oscillates and consolidates in the high range, and there is no bullish buying signal in the moving average system where the 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average. In the short term, it mainly operates in a volatile manner.
2、 Cost analysis
The upstream supply of adiponitrile and hexamethylenediamine is stable, and the raw material prices fluctuate narrowly without significant fluctuations. There is a certain bottom support on the cost side, but the upward driving force is insufficient. Under the current slicing price, the industry still faces pressure to incur losses, and some companies have the demand to reduce production to maintain prices. However, the loose supply of raw materials has not substantially changed, and the cost side is difficult to drive PA66 prices to break through.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the production of PA66 equipment in China remains at a moderate level, with sufficient supply of sliced goods. There is still pressure on market circulation inventory, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to stabilize prices. However, the competition pressure for spot shipments still exists, and there is significant resistance to actively pulling up prices. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as modification, injection molding, and textile airbag silk have not seen a significant increase in production. Terminal factories insist on purchasing on demand and purchasing as needed, with insufficient willingness to stock up in large quantities. The basic support for demand has been formed, but there is a lack of incremental order release. Under the game of supply and demand, the market lacks upward driving force, and the market maintains a high level of sideways observation.
4、 Short term forecast
The short-term PA66 spot market is likely to continue its high volatility pattern. The fundamentals of loose raw materials and abundant spot supply are difficult to reverse quickly, and the conditions for a significant increase in the market are not yet met; The current price is at a high level in a 60 day, 3-month cycle, with limited room for upward movement. However, the expected reduction in production caused by industry losses provides some support for downward space, and the space for deep decline is limited. The price is likely to fluctuate and consolidate within the range of 18800-19500 yuan/ton. The focus will be on tracking the maintenance dynamics of upstream equipment and the fulfillment of downstream autumn and winter orders in the future.
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