Market Review: From October 14th to 19th, the mainstream ex factory price of regular spun PA6 chips in China remained stable at 14900 yuan/ton, and continued to maintain stability; On October 20th, the price was raised to 15000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.67%. In terms of cycle position, the 10 day, 20 day, 90 day, and one-year cycles are all in the high range, and the price has approached the annual high of 15400 yuan/ton, compressing the upward space.
Cost side: The upstream caprolactam weekly settlement price has increased, providing cost support for PA6, and the raw material side has shown a bottoming effect, which is the core driving force behind this slight increase; However, the uncertainty brought by the fluctuation of pure benzene still exists, and the driving force for further significant increases in raw materials is limited.
Supply and demand side: On the supply side, domestic caprolactam and polymerization plants are operating at a relatively stable level, and spot supply is normal. There is currently no centralized production reduction or price protection action; Downstream textile and modification factories on the demand side continue to follow up on essential needs, and with the expectation of rising raw material prices, a small amount of inventory replenishment is released. However, the sustainability of terminal orders is weak, and the willingness to pursue price increases downstream at high prices is cautious, making it difficult to form sustained bulk purchases.
Short term forecast for the future: PA6 is expected to experience strong fluctuations in the short term, with cost support remaining. However, the current price is at a high level for the year, close to the upper pressure level, and there is limited room for further upward movement. The risk of high-level pullback is gradually accumulating, and the market is more likely to show a pattern of pressure and wide range fluctuations after rising.
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